Comments on: Home sweet home https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/ Wimminz Sun, 08 Apr 2018 01:13:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Michael https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6669 Tue, 14 Jan 2014 12:25:59 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6669 I don’t think that the combined income in Beijing will be merely $5000. That is about 30.000 RMB, so only 2500 per month per household. That is way below the average in Beijing. Maybe if you count in all the migrant workers, but even they don’t earn that little. I think a more realistic number would be somewhere around 5.000 to 6.000 RMB combined monthly income on average. Starting wages in mid-sized companies for college grads may be 1.500 to 2.000 RMB/month. It is true however that the young chump, who intends to get married will be financially supported by his parents when it comes to buying the residence for his future ball-busting overseeress.

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By: JFP https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6631 Sun, 12 Jan 2014 15:54:02 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6631 “totally annuls any imputed “value” to the “asset” that is now legally your property.”

Bah, its never legally your property as long as the King/Gov collects property tax on it. They bake public education money into property taxes here in most of the US and it just goes up and up. For the chilllldren. Then you have the idiots in government who think that despite taking away various industries like timber (spotted owls are saved!) along with a real estate bubble exploading housing values that taxes should be raised to keep paying for bloated government programs or even just the local sheriffs.

I’d love to buy a house outright but they’re all over valued and losing value every day if you look beneath the lies Real Estate/Banks/Gov sell you. Many still don’t and fall into the trap. Then they want bailouts. In the last 4 years I’m still ahead of the game waiting for prices to return to sanity and at least still mobile if I need to be.

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By: wimminz https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6630 Sun, 12 Jan 2014 04:25:27 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6630 good catch… ops, point still stands though, even though the math was wrong, fuck knows what I did there.

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By: ThousandMileMargin https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6629 Sun, 12 Jan 2014 04:12:19 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6629 Property prices in Tokyo fell 75% in nominal terms during the 20 years following 1991. So it is possible to have that correction and hold a society together, if you start from an ideal condition. Argentina had inflation above 15% for a decade, which achieves the same thing, and sort of held it together. Sort of.
Most likely the Anglo countries will be playing for time, trying to spread a 50% property decline over 20 years while running inflation at 3.5% to half the currency in the same period. Mix of the two approaches.
The problem is that you have to get wages to grow at a pace that keeps up with inflation, otherwise property prices will remain overvalued. And that is difficult when you are competing with China and India (outsourcing).
Here in Australia I figure we need a 75% fall in house prices to get back to historical norms. I suspect most of that will be accomplished by falls in nominal prices, like in Ireland. It’s going to be hard to get much inflation going with so much global cheap labour available.

The recent US experience suggests that you can print money like mad without seeing any real wage inflation.
How it all ends I don’t know.
But the darkest cloud on the horizon is the bursting of the Chinese property bubble and the effect this will have on all emerging markets.
Apparently couples with a combined income of $5000 per year are paying $120k for a flat an hour’s train ride from the centre of Beijing. That’s 25 times combined income, 50 times the income of a single male wage earner. Prices would have to fall 90% to make that affordable. Paying this back is obviously impossible, they borrow money from relatives and loan sharks and hope that China becomes as rich as the USA before they have to pay it back.
What are the odds China’s GDP will rise from $4000 per capita to $40,000 per capita over the next 20 years without any hiccups? That’s what they need to happen just to break even.

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By: ThousandMileMargin https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6628 Sun, 12 Jan 2014 03:58:38 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6628 83,250 / 6.21 = does not equal £27,945. It’s about half that.

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By: let it burn https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6619 Sat, 11 Jan 2014 17:26:48 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6619 “benefits” are also an exponential curve. somebody works to get taxed to pay those “benefits”. work harder millions on welfare are depending on you!

here in america people are starting to figure out that we have a whole generation of young people yoked with hugh college debt who dont’ have jobs, or work flipping burgers, who won’t be able to buy cars, buy houses, pay high taxes to keep the ebt cards filled. think thru that equation. the future is detroit.

btw: detroit has houses for sale for $1. nobody will buy them. heh.

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By: wimminz https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6614 Sat, 11 Jan 2014 16:29:44 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6614 Unless you can sell it and convert it into a nice bungalow on a nice plot of land somewhere else, also fully paid for, sit on it… it was free after all.

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By: cardguy https://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/home-sweet-home/#comment-6613 Sat, 11 Jan 2014 16:23:10 +0000 http://wimminz.wordpress.com/?p=3965#comment-6613 The middle classes in the UK only care about one thing. House prices. Nothing else affects them in the same way.

Look at the Tory party. They fucked up on Black Wednesday back in (Sept) 1992. Interest rates rose to 15%. And suddenly millions of home owners were staring down the barrel of a gun. With the bank’s finger on the trigger.

Now think about this. The Tories haven’t won an election in the UK since (April) 1992. And they won’t win next year either. So it will be 2020 at the earliest before they get round to winning an election outright.

That means 28 years of punishment from the natural Tory supporters. And it can all be traced back to what the Tories did on Black Wednesday when they sold out their core vote to the money markets.

The UK is pretty weird. People can see the logic in lower house prices. But as soon as they sign up for their first mortgage – they are now on the side of the casino and not the punter. They have their hands on the prize and the only thing that keeps them sweating at night is the idea of a house crash.

Fucked up all round.

Is there a solution? I am not sure. But I do think it is the biggest problem facing the UK today. And the depth of the problem is disguised by the large number of poor people who get housing benefits, and so don’t have to worry about house prices.

I read a book related to this area. It is called ‘The Grip of Death’ (which is where the word mortgage comes from apparently).

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Grip-Death-Destructive-Economics/dp/1897766408

The book blames rocketing house prices on the fractional reserve banking system – which doubles the amount of money in circulation every few years.

It is a fascinating book – but I am not qualified enough in economics to judge its claims. It is pretty ‘out there’ – in the sense of everything of saying everything you thought you knew is wrong.

Love the blog by the way.

Also – what advice would you give to a young person who has inherited a nice flat – already fully paid for. What is the best way of playing such a hand? Would you look at life differently in that situation?

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