Moveable Feast Cafe 2020/09/20 … Open Thread

Kidney Stones are very painful:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80ejAqLSMmg

Like A (Rolling) Kidney Stone…….

Ummm…I don’t know. The way I see it, No Pain for Mika Brezinski, CNN and MSNBC…..no GAIN for the world!

Parrying the Parody:

Ah, you used to be…….. SO amused…..
At DJT …and the 2016 language he abused
But now look at how y’ALL are so confused
And STILL can’t believe y’ALL so badly losed
You pathetic lying criminal psychos wa….aaa…il
In your Orange Man jumpsuits in Federal J-A-I-L!

Here Comes The Pain

Little Demonrats it’s been 4 long and dreary Trump years….
Little Demonrats, half your support has Walked Away…

Here comes John Durham…dum D’s dum
Here comes John Durham, and I say
It’s NOT alright…..no it’s plain
It really sucks!

Here comes The Pain
Yeah! Here comes The Pain,
And I say, it’s NOT alright.

Pain. Pain, Pain, such a strain!
Stinking Empire Swamp
Down the drain!

Little Demonrats, from the ship be jumpin’
MAGA Deplorables into DC be Trumpin’…….etc. etc

I’m Gonna Shoot That Old Horse

I’m gonna shoot that old horse,
She’s gone in the knees.
Don’t know how she made it
Through the last freeze.
She used to be strong
Back in the day,
But she’s old and she’s blind
And she’s wasted away.

I’m gonna shoot that old horse,
She’s acting so strange.
She shakes and she trembles
On fire with the mange.
All through the night
You’d hear her neigh,
Now there’s nary a nicker
For a week and a day.

I’m gonna shoot that old horse,
She’s been a good friend.
I’ve tried everthing
But she just won’t mend.
God bless that old nag,
She gave all she could,
But the time has come
To end her misery for good.

I’m gonna shoot that old horse,
Gonna hold back the tears.
I’ll bury her then
And drink a few beers.
I’ll go down to the barn
And lie in the hay,
Eat chowder and apples
And remember my bay.

Bay is a reddish brown horse coat colour, with black point colouration of mane, tail, ear-tips and lower legs. It’s the most common coat colour among many horse breeds.

When I opened my mail yesterday, a political propaganda mailer from the technofascist candidate posing as a female businesswoman –Democrat of course- contained the first line:

“When faced with credible reports that Russia was arming and paying terrorists in Afghanistan to kill US troops, career politician Tom McClintock’s silence tells us everything we need to know.”

What does this tell us? That he/we can think for ourselves and read the news reports that admit that top Generals cannot confirm this claim? And since when did silence mean anything other than silence?

Perhaps Ms. Brynne Kennedy should research the admitted reports which are higher on the believability scale than “credible reports” that our tax dollars are being sent to Ukrainian mercenaries who are paid to kill Russian soldiers in Crimea?

So to compile a list of approved double talk phrases: there is “highly likely” and “mostly peaceful” and lastly we have “credible reports”….

.

A friend posted this story about a Ukrainian dilemma today. It’s very interesting.The first is in Russian as he posted it.The second is a translation into English.

ЧУЖАЯ УКРАИНА.

Я отказался от участия в политическом процессе на Украине, потому что я не знаю, как человек с моими убеждениями может в этом процессе сегодня участвовать.

Я всегда любил украинский язык. Не скажу, что я любил Шевченко, но одно время меня восхищала невероятная поэтика именно его языка – того, на котором мы сегодня уже, конечно, не разговариваем, который тогда, в его времена только зарождался, представляя из себя удивительный по фонетике сплав древнего разговорного русского языка и современного ему польского, но в результате у Шевченко получался язык очень красивый.
Он был не такой шипящий, как польский, и не такой прозрачный и объемный, как русский, но свой, домашний, песенный, льющийся, как ручей, красивый, достойный воспеть красоту Украины.

Мне это нравилось. Я никогда в детстве и юности не говорил на украинском языке. Я учился в русской школе и украинского не знал. Мой отец был украинцем и все больше говорил дома на суржике. Мать говорила на русском языке. Она русская, рожденная на Сахалина, и даже до сих пор она не избавилась от характерного ясного русского произношения русских слов.
Язык я выучил уже после распада Советского Союза, кода я уволился в запас и вернулся в Киев. Одно время я много работал по Западной Украине и язык выучил достаточно быстро.
Правда уже тогда, когда я начал читать Шевченко, я заметил некоторую странность в общении с интеллигенцией Львова и Ивано-Франковска. Особенно меня поражала позиция их греко-католических священников, которые не стесняясь тогда в девяностые годы поднимали тосты за «смерть москалям». Честно скажу, оказавшись впервые в подобной ситуации (это был торжественный прием в Ивано-Франковске по поводу очередной годовщины Незалежности), я не знал, как надо себя вести. Все вокруг смеялись, поддерживая важную духовную персону, поднявшую такой тост, и я сам себе сказал, что скорее всего это просто шутка такая, и что она означает нечто вроде тех шуток, которыми мы шутили на флоте по поводу хохлов и москалей. Но я ошибся.

Потом я специально отдельно поговорил с той «духовной» персоной. Предмет для разговора я выбрал сам, предложив поговорить о Тарасе Григорьевиче Шевченко, поскольку тогда он, как, в некотором смысле, фундамент новой создававшейся Украины, особенно меня интересовал. Духовное лицо с радостью отозвалось на это мое предложение и, на очень еще тогда плохо для меня понятном западенском наречии, стало упирать на то, что самым великим произведением Тараса Григорьевича есть его поэма «Гайдамаки», которая описывает восстание Гонты и Железняка.

Я тогда как-то неуверенно возразил, что очень уж много крови и жестоки в этой поэме воспевает Тарас Григорьевич, где казаки массово вырезают евреев Умани и польскими головами играют в мяч на рыночной площади. Где обедать они после бойни садятся не за столы, а накрывают прямо на телах растерзанных ими жертв. Сказал, что мне не понятно, как один из главных героев поэмы публично зарезал своих малолетних детей только за то, что мать (жена его) окрестила их в католичество.

«Духовное лицо» посмотрело на меня с пьяным подозрением и сказало мне, что я еще ничего не понял ни в Шевченко, ни в украинском народе.

Как же он был прав!

Я ничего тогда еще не понимал в том украинском народе, который постепенно пришел из Западной Украины и сегодня заразил собой почти уже всю остальную её часть.

Но я тогда был полон оптимизма. Западная Украина, думал я, это еще не вся Украина, это – не Гоголь и не его Малороссия, это не Бердяев и не его «Самопознание», это не Булгаков и не его Киев, это даже не Шевченко – думал я. Это просто небольшой народец, который не так давно стал народом украинским, но постепенно он ассимилирует и станет таким же, как и мы все, живущие в Киеве, Харькове или Донецке.

Я опять ничего не понимал. Это не был просто небольшой народец – это была инфекция, вирус, чума.

И вот эта чума распространилась. Хорошо подкормленная и постоянно удобряемая идеологическими лабораториями США и Канады, она системно несла себя в мозги и души киевлян, одесситов, харьковчан, все более и более перерождая их в тот самый западенский маленький народец, все более и более радуя «духовное лицо» в Ивано-Франковске, понимавшее, в отличие от меня, истинную сущность «западного украинства».
Флаг, Герб, Гимн Украины стали постепенно насыщаться новыми смыслами. Как когда-то над городами пораженными чумой вывешивали черные флаги, так и сегодня, желто-голубой флаг стал для меня символом болезни.

Окончательное насыщение государственных символов Украины античеловеческим содержанием произошло тогда, когда под пение Гимна, под желто-голубыми штандартами, с трезубом на броне украинские танки расстреляли милиционеров Мариуполя, а такие майданные активисты, как Белецкий, Кива, Ярош и им подобные отправились расстреливать украинцев Донбасса.
Причем, те, кто отправился воевать с восставшим Донбассом, делали, и продолжают это делать, яростно и самоотверженно, веря в то, что они таким образом защищают свою родину. Они ведь не просто убивают тех, кто мыслит иначе, они и сами погибают на этой войне, но тем не менее они идут убивать. Т.е. это и есть их истинные идеологические убеждения. Это и есть их страна, это и есть их государство, которое они построили в соответствии со своими убеждениями – идеологическое государство, в котором стрежневой образующей идеологией есть идеология украинского национализма, идеология русофобии и ненависти, государство в котором мне места нет.

Ведь придя даже в Парламент, став вновь народным депутатом, мне придется давать Присягу на верность именно этому государству. Мне придется петь Гимн, одеть на лацкан пиджака Флаг и служить под Гербом этого не моего по духу государства.

Я не представляю, как я, оставаясь самим собой, смогу служить тому, во что превратилась моя Украина, став для меня чужой и опасной.

Я знаю, что для многих это не является преградой, и я ни в коем случае их не осуждаю. Просто я не буду честен, если вдруг затяну где-нибудь: «Ще нэ вмэрла». Мне просто кажется, что это все равно, как если бы делать политику в Третьем Рейхе. Ничего, мол, страшного, скажет кто-нибудь: ну, позиговал бы, повесил бы у себя в кабинете Свастику, походил бы факельными шествиями по улицам Берлина, стал бы депутатом Рейхстага и предложил бы альтернативу господствующей фашистской политике, предварительно, правда, принеся присягу на верность фашистскому государству.
После этого остается, разве что, предложить новую модель газовых печей для крематориев Рейха, и внести изменения в закон о госзакупках, чтобы покупали именно твои печи, поскольку они более гуманны, и имеют более высокую производительность.
У меня так не получится. Я знаю себя.

ALIEN’S UKRAINE.

I refused to participate in the political process in Ukraine because I do not know how a person with my convictions can participate in this process today.

I have always loved the Ukrainian language. I will not say that I loved Shevchenko, but at one time I was fascinated by the incredible poetics of his language – the one in which we, of course, do not speak today, which then, in his time, was just emerging, representing an amazing phonetic fusion of the ancient colloquial Russian and contemporary Polish, but as a result Shevchenko got a very beautiful language.
It was not as sizzling as Polish, and not as transparent and voluminous as Russian, but its own, homely, song, flowing like a stream, beautiful, worthy of praising the beauty of Ukraine.

I loved it. I never spoke Ukrainian in my childhood and youth. I studied at a Russian school and did not know Ukrainian. My father was Ukrainian and more and more spoke Surzhik at home. Mother spoke Russian. She is Russian, born on Sakhalin, and even to this day she has not gotten rid of the characteristic clear Russian pronunciation of Russian words.
I learned the language after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when I retired and returned to Kiev. At one time I worked a lot in Western Ukraine and learned the language quickly enough.
True, even when I started reading Shevchenko, I noticed a certain oddity in communicating with the intelligentsia of Lvov and Ivano-Frankivsk. I was especially amazed by the position of their Greek Catholic priests, who did not hesitate then in the nineties to toast to “death to Muscovites.” To be honest, being for the first time in a similar situation (it was a gala reception in Ivano-Frankivsk on the occasion of the next anniversary of Independence), I did not know how to behave. Everyone around was laughing, supporting an important clergyman who raised such a toast, and I said to myself that most likely it was just such a joke, and that it means something like those jokes that we used to joke in the Navy about Ukrainians and Muscovites. But I was wrong.

Then I specially spoke separately with that “spiritual” person. I chose the subject for conversation myself, proposing to talk about Taras Grigorievich Shevchenko, because then he, as, in a sense, the foundation of the newly created Ukraine, especially interested me. The clergyman gladly responded to this proposal of mine and, in a Western dialect that was still very poor for me at that time, began to emphasize that the greatest work of Taras Grigorievich was his poem “Gaidamaki”, which describes the uprising of Gonta and Zheleznyak.

I then somehow hesitantly objected that there is a lot of blood and cruelty in this poem is sung by Taras Grigorievich, where the Cossacks massacre the Jews of Uman and play with Polish heads on the market square. Where to dine after the massacre, they do not sit at the tables, but set them right on the bodies of the victims they have torn to pieces. He said that I do not understand how one of the main characters of the poem publicly stabbed his young children just because their mother (his wife) christened them Catholic.

The “clergyman” looked at me with drunken suspicion and told me that I still did not understand anything about Shevchenko or the Ukrainian people.

How right he was!

At that time I did not yet understand anything about the Ukrainian people who gradually came from Western Ukraine and today infected almost all the rest of it with themselves.

But then I was full of optimism. Western Ukraine, I thought, this is not all of Ukraine, this is not Gogol and not his Little Russia, this is not Berdyaev and not his Self-Knowledge, this is not Bulgakov and not his Kiev, this is not even Shevchenko, I thought. This is just a small people who not so long ago became a Ukrainian people, but gradually they will assimilate and become the same as all of us living in Kiev, Kharkov or Donetsk.

Again I did not understand anything. It was not just a small people – it was an infection, a virus, a plague.

And so this plague spread. Well fed and constantly fertilized by the ideological laboratories of the United States and Canada, it systematically carried itself into the brains and souls of Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv, more and more transforming them into that very Western little people, more and more delighting the “clergyman” in Ivano- Frankivske, who, unlike me, understood the true essence of “Western Ukrainians”.
The flag, coat of arms, anthem of Ukraine gradually began to be saturated with new meanings. Just as black flags were once hung over cities stricken by the plague, so today, the yellow-blue flag has become a symbol of the disease for me.

The final saturation of the state symbols of Ukraine with antihuman content occurred when, while singing the Anthem, under yellow-blue standards, with a trident on their armor, Ukrainian tanks shot the militiamen of Mariupol, and such Maidan activists as Beletsky, Kiva, Yarosh and others like them went to shoot the Ukrainians of Donbass.
Moreover, those who went to fight the rebellious Donbass did, and continue to do so, fiercely and selflessly, believing that in this way they are protecting their homeland. They don’t just kill those who think differently, they themselves perish in this war, but nevertheless they go to kill. Those. this is their true ideological convictions. This is their country, this is their state, which they built in accordance with their convictions – an ideological state in which the core forming ideology is the ideology of Ukrainian nationalism, the ideology of Russophobia and hatred, a state in which I have no place.

After even having come to the Parliament, having become a people’s deputy again, I will have to take an oath of allegiance to this particular state. I will have to sing the Anthem, put the Flag on the lapel of my jacket and serve under the Emblem of this state, which is not mine in spirit.

I cannot imagine how I, remaining myself, can serve what my Ukraine has become, becoming a stranger and dangerous for me.

I know that for many this is not an obstacle, and I in no way condemn them. It’s just that I won’t be honest if I suddenly drag out somewhere: “She ne vmerla.” It just seems to me that it’s the same as doing politics in the Third Reich. Nothing, they say, terrible, someone will say: well, I would have posed, I would have hung a Swastika in my office, I would have walked like torchlight processions through the streets of Berlin, I would have become a member of the Reichstag and would have offered an alternative to the prevailing fascist policy, but first, however, taking the oath loyalty to the fascist state.
After that, it remains, perhaps, to propose a new model of gas ovens for the Reich crematoria, and to amend the public procurement law so that your ovens are bought, since they are more humane and have higher productivity.
I can’t do that. I know myself.

Many of us might know of the US dollar as a reserve currency in NATO and other countries occupied by the USA. But on the other side of the Iron Curtain, what did the Warsaw Pact nations use as a reserve currency – if they used one, that is? Wikipedia claims that the Soviet ruble and East German mark (I don’t know about the other currencies) could not be exported outside of the Soviet Union and GDR respectively.

There are massive proofs that the US government during the Barack Obama administration created IS in the Middle East and North Africa for the purpose of regime change wars against the elected governments in a number of countries. New evidence suggest that 5 billion US dollars were transferred to Iraq by syndicated banks such as Deutsche Bank USA in order to pay and run the IS mercenary army. Initially IS was also related to the Libyan war against pres. of Libiaya Moammar Qadaffi, where IS were trained and formed by CIA/US/NATO conspiracy against the country. IS and a large number of weapons were transferred via Turkey to Iraq. The insurgency forces were supplied with loads of vehicles supplied by USA, Britain and Australia that brought them directly to the Iraqi’s US weapons depots storagtes for Iraq, were IS acquired all the US weapons used in the occupation of Iraq and Syria. Later such vehicle supplies by USA, Britain and Australia were confirmed by a government terror investigation. https://journal-neo.org/2015/10/09/the-mystery-of-isis-toyota-army-solved/
Newly released documents show that 5 billion US dollars were transferred during a short period of time to Iraq to IS. https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/09/21/634665/Deutsche-Bank-funds-Daesh-Iraq
And US/NATO weapons deliveries to IS and al Qaeda in Syria are widely reported.
https://newspunch.com/u-s-arms-dealers-provide-isis-with-their-weapons-expose/
The wars in the Middle East and particularily in Syria and Iraq where IS established a “state” were massive warcrimes and crimes against humanity, massacres, forced labour, imprisonment and so forth. To the effect that a war crimes tribunal ought to be held by impartial forces and international organisations involved with the Roma Statutes. The lack of such responses will only propell the world into lawlessness that we experience now, covid-19 viruses, corruption of all political entities, the UN, and international organisations calling for new nazi regimes to rule the world.

Something is going on…

“Российская Газета” reports “… Times: British aviation and navy intensify near Russian borders …”, the stated purpose being “to put Moscow’s military on the defensive”.

https://rg.ru/2020/09/20/times-aviaciia-i-flot-britanii-aktivizirovalis-u-granic-rossii.html

(The Sunday Times: “… RAF fighters and Royal Navy warships have dramatically increased patrols around Russia’s borders and coasts in an unprecedented operation to put Moscow’s military on the defensive. Twenty-eight RAF aircraft have been sent to Russia’s borders on the Black Sea and off the coast of the Kola peninsula in the Arctic since the last week of August, involving formations of as many as five British aircraft at a time. Typhoon fighters and Voyager refuelling tankers, as well as Sentinel, RC-135 and Sentry E-3 Awacs (airborne early warning and control system) spy planes, have joined the long-range missions. …”)

RG.com adds, that according to the general staff of the Russian armed forces, foreign reconnaissance aircraft increased their presence in the Black Sea region by 40 percent, and the intensity of aerial reconnaissance near the Crimean peninsula increased by 60 percent.

Some thoughts on Stephen Cohen from fellow Russia expert, Gilbert Doctorow :

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/09/21/stephen-f-cohen-in-memoriam/

I feel genuinely sad about his death, as if I had known him. He exuded such authenticity and human decency. His voice of reason will be sorely missed.

A Russian friend posted this about being Russian:

We are Russians! And God is with us!
It is Russians, not Russians.
Why is a Chechen proud that he is a Chechen, while they tell me, a Russian in my country, that my nationality can offend someone, offend someone? Because I am Russian, I will not love other peoples less. I will not become less hospitable and hospitable. I like it when guests come to me, but I don’t like it when these guests start to become impudent and behave like a boor in my house.
I don’t need to make excuses for wanting basic respect for the owner of the house. And from this I do not become a nationalist.
Why are only Russians condemned for this desire?
We are Russians and God is with us.
It is us who are trying to destroy the defenders of the perverts, because only we stand in their way. We stop them from building their crazy world of gender diversity. Let’s put it bluntly: the world of ordinary perverts, where almost every perversion has its own gender assigned. Not all perversions have their own gender, but it is a matter of time and they are working hard in this direction.
We are the guardians of the World.
And we are the last defenders of the Family in the understanding as it was created by nature.
It is we who are selfless defenders of the weak, it is in our blood that there is a power that can stop Evil.
Many peoples are worthy, brave and warlike, but in the most difficult, bloody and fateful battles for humanity, the Russians won.
And in this battle with the defenders of perverts, we will win.
There are no half measures and semitones, if you are “for all good, against all bad”, but at the same time liberalize, supporting perverts, then you are on their side, hostile to us – know this.
Someone opened the windows to the world of perverts and their perverted fantasies … Let’s close these “damn windows” and return to the world of normal people.
“Russia will rise when the dead stand next to the living” …
They are already standing next to us.
Our ancestors, our warriors stand next to us.
We are Russians, God is with us and our Ancestors are with us!
I. Ivanovich

Мы Русские! И с нами Бог!
Именно Русские, не россияне.
Почему чеченец гордится тем, что он чеченец, а мне русскому в моей стране говорят, что моя национальность может кого-то задеть, обидеть? От того, что я русский, я не буду любить меньше другие народы. Я не стану меньше гостеприимным и хлебосольным. Мне нравится, когда ко мне приезжают гости, но мне не нравится, когда эти гости начинают наглеть и вести себя в моём доме по-хамски.
Мне не нужно оправдываться за желание элементарного уважения к хозяину дома. И от этого я не становлюсь националистом.
Почему за это желание осуждают только русских?
Мы Русские и с нами Бог.
Это нас пытаются уничтожить защитники извращенцев потому что только мы стоим у них на пути. Это мы мешаем им построить их безумный мир гендерного разнообразия. Давайте говорить прямо: мир обыкновенных извращенцев, где почти каждому извращению присвоен свой гендер. Не у всех извращений есть свой гендер, но это вопрос времени и они в этом направлении усиленно работают.
Это мы стоим на страже Мира.
И это мы являемся последними защитниками Семьи в том понимании как это создано природой.
Это мы являемся бескорыстными защитниками слабых, это в нашей крови есть сила способная остановить Зло.
Много народов достойных, смелых и воинственных, но в самых тяжелых, кровопролитных и судьбоносных для человечества сражениях, победили русские.
И в этой битве с защитниками извращенцев победим мы.
Не бывает полумер и полутонов, если ты “за всё хорошее, против всего плохого”, но при этом либеральничаешь, поддерживая извращенцев, то ты на их, враждебной нам стороне – знай это.
Кто-то распахнул окна в мир извращенцев и их извращённых фантазий… Давайте закроем эти “чёртовы окна” и вернёмся в мир нормальных людей.
“Русь воспрянет когда мёртвые встанут рядом с живыми” …
Они уже стоят рядом с нами.
Наши предки, наши воины стоят рядом с нами.
Мы Русские с нами Бог и с нами наши Предки!
И. Иванович

The following on “Putin Today” taken from a writting by Col. Cassad:

https://www.putin-today.ru/archives/108476

If you dont have a translator I have copied from the site – Mod please excuse the length, but it’s very interesting, I think, and worth a perusal.

The point is, if this a true reflection of how the top brass of Pentagon, and other advisors to the President, are thinking about Putin and Russia, then clearly Russia has nothing to worry about except the possibility that these functioning morons might have access to the “red button”.
It exemplifies, infact, what I have always said is a major, and very limiting, characteristic, of the majority of AngloSaxon minds, certainly those in power: that they cannot see beyond their very limited sphere of experience, and what they want to be the truth. They cant accept what they just dont want to accept.

Remember a couple of posts I have made here showing the huge industrialisation and growth going on in Russia today, and how it is adding slowly but surely to Russian peoples increasing standard of living and prospects for a good future. Think of the subtlety with which Russia is being ruled and guided.
Then see how these influencers see the nation.

” A report by the ISW international Pentagon center, which advises the American military leadership, on Russia’s policy in the former USSR and other regions of the world after 2014.
This is the view of American propagandist analysts on the activities of Russia near their borders for a better understanding of how they see the activities of the Russian Federation.

“Kremlin’s geopolitical adaptation after 2014»

The West has made some progress in countering the Kremlin since Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has found ways to compensate for external pressure on Russia without giving up on his achievements and goals.
The center of attraction for Putin is his ability to shape the perception of others and create an image of a powerful Russia based on limited real power.
Putin’s efforts since 2014 to overcome Russia’s weak positions and achieve his goals have focused on creating a global information space that is favorable to Russia; purposefully increasing Russia’s military presence, providing asymmetric opportunities to influence decision-making; including Russia in the cocoon of a network of coalitions and international organizations to strengthen Russia’s limited power; diversifying Russia’s tools and means of influence and Subversion; expanding Russia’s influence in peripheral theaters; and consolidating power within Russia.

Putin’s evolving approaches allow him to play the bad cards well, but his cards remain weak. Putin’s dependence on asymmetric approaches will grow as the gap between his means and goals widens. This gap will not necessarily threaten the survival of Putin’s regime, but it will provide the United States with the ability to counter Russia’s challenge. The West should restrict access to two key drivers of Putin’s power — narratives and coalitions. A long-term solution against Russia could be to create collective immunity to the Russian challenge, including the ability of strategic intelligence in the US and its partners to detect Putin’s slow tactical creep before it becomes his strategic advantage.
How does Putin succeed or fail in achieving his goals?
Several sources of stability allowed Putin to hold power for 20 years. Putin understands Russia. It offers a limited and periodically changing, but nevertheless real value proposition for Russians and other countries. It has several sources of real power, including nuclear weapons, a global military presence, and a veto in the UN Security Council. Putin’s power in Russia’s domestic politics and his ability to influence the global concept are other important sources of power.
Putin is adapting to a changing geostrategic environment. He has been dynamically updating his value proposition to his constituents in Russia over the past two decades. Since 2014, Putin has changed the methods he uses to achieve his foreign policy goals without fundamentally changing them. More recently, Putin has shown that he is willing to experiment with less repressive tactics to tame public discontent in Russia. He allowed the anti-Kremlin protests of 2020 in Russia’s far East to boil over without putting them down much longer than, for example, he would have done in the past. He is developing Russia’s approach to hybrid warfare, as he uses anti-government protests in Belarus to regain control of this former Soviet state.

However, Putin’s power has real and growing limits. Putin is accumulating risk on fundamental factors such as Russia’s economy and human capital as their condition deteriorates. What Putin can offer Russia and its foreign partners is also limited, and in some cases harmful. Putin is aware of these problems, but is unlikely to significantly expand Russia’s resources and capabilities. Its kleptocratic regime is incompatible with the reform necessary for meaningful growth of the Russian economy. In addition, Putin’s efforts since 2014 have been skewed towards reducing damage and easing restrictions, rather than improving Russia’s fundamentals. He focused, for example, on more effective control over Russian society and more sustained pressure on other countries, rather than on reforming Russia or becoming a more attractive international partner.
Putin must increasingly support the view that the alternative to his rule in Russia is either worse or too expensive. Thus, Putin’s dependence on his ability to shape the narrative is an existential requirement.
Putin can no longer afford the luxury of covering his actions in Russia with legalism. For two decades, Putin has tried to maintain the semblance of democracy in Russia and has repeatedly stated that he will not change the Constitution in accordance with his political plans. However, Putin openly did just that in 2020, to give himself the opportunity to rule effectively for life. .

The facade of legitimacy that Putin has usually considered essential to the effectiveness of his approach is also a constraint on the Kremlin’s actions on a global scale. The Kremlin halted its offensive in Eastern Ukraine in 2014 at the limit of its “information border” — the point at which Russia ran out of information cover for hybrid promotion of its campaign — without openly participating in a full-scale military offensive against Ukraine. The Kremlin planned to capture six regions in Ukraine, but was only able to capture parts of two regions in part because the Kremlin greatly overestimated support for the idea of a “Russian world” among the Ukrainian population. This lack of support deprived the Kremlin of the information cover necessary to capture additional territories. As a result, Putin had to agree to a lesser goal, at least temporarily,
Some of Putin’s actions since 2014 have opened up additional vulnerabilities for Russia. For example, Putin’s turn to non-Western powers, especially China, to compensate for losses caused by the deterioration of relations with the West, may have unpleasant consequences in the long run. The imbalance of economic power between Beijing and Moscow is so great that Putin cannot be sure of his ability to prevent China from eventually imposing costs and restrictions that it does not want to accept in principle.

The Kremlin has faced numerous setbacks as a result of its restrictions, such as failing to prevent NATO expansion in the Balkans in 2017 (when Montenegro joined) and again in 2020 (with the admission of North Macedonia), despite the Kremlin’s efforts. The effectiveness of several key instruments of Russia’s foreign policy pressure, such as the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian energy exports, is also declining, as many countries try to limit their exposure to Russian influence.
Nevertheless, Putin continues to make progress — often in the blind spots of the West. Putin continues to provide additional influence in the former Soviet Union, as well as expanding Russia’s military presence and information influence around the world.
Putin is using forces that encourage the West to accept his achievements and ease the pressure on him. It accelerates the blurring of the memory of Russian aggression. It uses legitimate reasons, such as cooperation in the fight against terrorism, to draw countries into Russia’s initiatives and legitimize its malicious activities. It refocuses its opponents from their long-term interests and from the leverage they have with Russia to the short-term benefits or costs that the Kremlin can inflict on them. It benefits from a desire for a normal life in the West and an ingrained reluctance to pursue a confrontational policy towards Russia.

The West’s tendency to ignore Russia’s banal activities is another important opportunity for Putin. Slowly, imperceptibly, and often at a tactical level, the Kremlin usually creates the conditions for achieving strategic goals.
Another Western vulnerability is the tendency to mistake the Kremlin’s sloppiness and adaptability for opportunism. This propensity is partly explained by the fact that Putin does move quickly when he sees opportunities, and often jumps from one theater to another, which seems at odds with Western audiences who consider, for example, the middle East and the Baltic States as a whole. certain issues. In fact, Putin has consistently pursued the same goals for years. He has shown a willingness to accept losses in order to advance his larger efforts. The Kremlin’s means of achieving these goals are developed and improved to support them, although their implementation is often ineffective, poorly coordinated, and even counterproductive.
The West also needs to understand that when the West legitimizes the Kremlin’s narratives and aligns itself with its international framework, it is giving oxygen to Putin’s two main power amplifiers. Without this oxygen, Putin would probably have been brought closer to his size.

Putin’s efforts and adaptations after 2014

Since 2014, Putin’s efforts have increasingly focused on shaping, rather than simply destroying, an international environment that will promote Russia’s interests and provide the Kremlin with resources and legitimacy. Putin probably calculated that the long-term solution to deflect international pressure is to create an environment that accepts Russian principles and narratives and limits the need for enforcement measures against Russia.

The main areas of Putin’s efforts supporting this goal:

The creation of a favourable for Russia in the global information society and the expansion of information capabilities of the Kremlin. The battle for minds is Putin’s key battle. Russia’s national security paradigm shifted towards the information space around 2014, probably in response to the information successes and failures of its hybrid offensive against Ukraine, as well as to recognition of the growing need to shape an international narrative to advance Russia’s foreign policy. The Kremlin also estimates that the main threat to Russia’s sovereignty will arise in the information space – from attempts by the West to destabilize Russia from within by turning Russians against their government, as well as to undermine Russia’s influence in the world. The Kremlin has revised its information policy and increased its information operations and the scope of its information influence around the world. This area of influence is vast and goes beyond the media and Troll farms. Its goal is strategic. This is no longer an auxiliary effort, but the main attention. It is supported by both physical and informational means. Thus, it would be more accurate to define it as a perception space — the Kremlin’s efforts to promote certain narratives and create certain perceptions in support of its goals, or as an end in itself.

Expanding the security space around Russia without engaging in a costly arms race. Putin is purposefully expanding Russia’s military presence, reflecting the Kremlin’s assessment that Russia must restore its power without falling into the costly trap of an arms race. Thus, the Kremlin has made it a priority to create security coalitions to offset the limitations of Russia’s growing but still limited military presence. The Kremlin is using these security partnerships with other countries to gain strength for the Kremlin’s military campaigns, legitimize Russian intervention as part of international cooperation, and advance the Kremlin’s broader goals, such as restoring influence over former Soviet States.

Shrouding Russia in a web of coalitions and international organizations. Putin expands and links Russia’s formal and informal partnerships to shape the international agenda, resist Western pressure, and gain access to sources of money and legitimacy. Since 2014, Russia has signed hundreds of agreements in various fields-from media to military cooperation. Putin is also trying to attract the United States. For Putin, there is no contradiction in the fact that he wants to cooperate with the United States, trying to undermine the influence of the United States. The legitimacy granted by the US is Putin’s main strength booster in the short term, while reducing America’s overall influence remains Putin’s long-term goal.

Strengthening the supremacy of the UN Security Council (UNSC). The post-war order and Russia’s status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (G5) are a key Foundation of Russia’s real and perceived power. The Kremlin is seeking both to revive G5 cooperation and to strengthen the primacy of the UN, where Russia has a veto in the Security Council as a key international arbiter. It is vitally important for Putin to retain these powers.

Diversification of foreign policy instruments and coalition building tools. The Kremlin has developed its own set of” nodes ” — legitimate reasons, such as counterterrorism efforts — that it uses to draw countries into Russian initiatives. These reasons are often not the primary goals of Kremlin propaganda, but rather ways to increase influence. Putin has broadened the General concept of sovereignty and is engaging countries through an expanded set of proposals related to “sovereignty,” such as financial or digital independence from the systems of the “hegemonic” West. Putin has developed his approach to the” Russian world ” — one of Putin’s main geopolitical constructs. He adjusted his rhetoric and tactics after Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a rebuff to the “Russian world”. Putin has also adapted how he uses the armed forces in the former Soviet Union; they are not his first or last resort. The Kremlin can use the real threat of military intervention, given the precedent it has set in Ukraine, to shape policy in the former Soviet Union without using force.

Investing in new bilateral relations while expanding Russia’s influence in peripheral theaters. After 2014, the Kremlin launched information campaigns in the middle East, Africa, Asia, and South America in search of influence, legitimacy, and resources.
The consolidation of power in Russia and promotion of “sovereignty»Of Russia. Putin compensates for the decline in his value proposition to the Russian people by increasing his control over Russia, increasing Russia’s isolation, especially from the global information space, and pushing Russian identity toward militaristic patriotism.

Recommendations

Putin’s sources of resilience and adaptability will allow him to maintain his regime and its international campaigns on the current trajectory for some time. Putin’s compensatory efforts don’t fundamentally change Russia’s strengths, but they do help Putin buy time while he tries to undermine anti-Russian efforts globally and gradually build influence in many theaters. However, Putin’s future achievements are not a given. Putin’s hand remains weak. The cost of preserving Putin’s power will only grow, as will the cost of his foreign adventures.

The US can take several steps to stop the Kremlin’s malicious activities and conquest:

Accept the complexity. The simplification of Putin’s regime to a “third-world dictatorship, a mafia-run gas station with nuclear weapons,” as some US officials have done, hides the nuances by which Russia is challenging the US and its allies. Putin achieves a lot through perception — in blind spots, the West is often unaware of its existence. Information operations, especially their cumulative effect over time, pose a real threat to Western societies. But this is not all speculation — we must not forget about the real power of Putin. The Kremlin sees its various efforts as a complex undertaking, and the West should counter them in the same way. The United States should focus not only on the tools of Russia’s malicious influence, but also on the strategic campaigns it supports. The United States should avoid bifurcating military and civilian frameworks,

To build the immune system against malicious activities of the Kremlin. Develop strategic intelligence capabilities in the United States and among American partners to detect Kremlin campaigns and perception manipulation at an early stage — before they lead to strategic gains. Track, prevent, and counteract the Kremlin’s efforts to destroy antibodies to its influence.

Save the dampers. Maintain sanctions and restrictions on legitimacy, such as access to international organizations, against Russia unless the Kremlin stops and reverses its belligerent actions. Prevent Putin from shifting his problems to someone else’s balance sheet, for example, by transferring financial responsibility for Russia’s illegal republics in Ukraine without restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty; or shifting Assad’s financial struggle to the balance of the international community.

Don’t let Putin’s false narratives become true. Constantly debunk the Kremlin’s false narratives and malicious actions to change perceptions. Strengthen international mechanisms to preserve the “truth.” Create a broad international coalition to investigate Russia’s violations of international law and the law of armed conflict.

Don’t give Putin legitimacy for his actions. Do not succumb to the Kremlin’s cooperation framework. Keep an eye on the new cooperation framework with Russia and violate it whenever possible. Recognize the vital importance of the Kremlin’s network of partnerships to Putin’s ability to strengthen Russia’s power. Compete with Putin on these international platforms, especially at the UN.

Help Ukraine win the fight against Russia’s attempts to regain its dominant influence in Ukraine’s decision-making process. Recognize that Ukraine is a major deterrent to Putin’s global ambitions, limiting the limited high-end resources that Putin would use elsewhere if he could. Work with European partners to prevent Putin from manipulating Ukraine and concluding a peace agreement on Russia’s terms, in particular to counter the Kremlin’s false narratives about Ukraine; and strengthen Ukraine’s reform efforts.

Test Putin’s commitment to his aggressive foreign policy by challenging him on several platforms.
Create coalitions to achieve all of the above. Make a bet on Europe, because this can significantly affect the international balance and the dynamics of solving the problem of Russia. Expand your coalition. Russia draws its legitimacy from the non-Western world.
Maintain an open exchange of information with Russia. Understanding why Putin exists as a phenomenon is no less important for understanding the threat he poses to the United States and its allies.

Notes.

1. Putin defined Russkiy Mir as ” the Union of all those who are spiritually connected with Russia and consider themselves native speakers of the Russian language, culture and history.”
2. in developing his policies, Putin has increasingly focused on making Russia independent from Western influence, including creating a “sovereign Internet” in Russia, reducing the use of the dollar, and fixing the priority of Russian laws over international laws in the Constitution. These efforts isolate Russia from the international community.

http://www.understandingwar.org/report/putins-offset-kremlin%E2%80%99s-geopolitical-adaptations-2014 — цинк
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Putin%27s%20Offset%20The%20Kremlin%27s%20Geopolitical%20Adaptations%20Since%202014.pdf — полную версию можно скачать по ссылке

LJ: colonelcassad

NAVALNY, PEVCHIKH ARE BARKING DOGS; MERKEL AND NORD STREAM-2 ARE THE CARAVAN WHICH MOVES ON

Navalny’s dogs were barking, but their caravan had failed to start according to plan. The BBC has demonstrated what that plan was.

The last time the BBC rehearsed in advance such an elaborate propaganda operation inside Russia was the Pussy Riot episode of February 2012.

http://johnhelmer.org/navalny-pevchikh-are-barking-dogs-merkel-and-nord-stream-2-are-the-caravan-which-moves-on/

André Vltchek a UNZ writer has been found suspiciously dead in Istanbul at age 57

Kevin Barrett thinks its likely murder

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/09/22/vltchek-murdered/