Wimminz – celebrating skank ho's everywhere

“Risk”, it is an interesting thing, I was talking to someone recently about the risks of contacting a “killer” STD such as HIV, as it was something that worried them… I asked them a few questions;

• Do you personally know anyone who has contracted or died from HIV?
• Do you personally know anyone who has contracted or died from cancer?
• Do you personally know anyone who was involved or killed in an auto accident?

You see where this is going, this person knew no-one who had AIDS/HIV, knew plenty involved in car crashes and cancer diagnoses, and a few that had died of each, so why no “ooooh scary” about them? Why so freaky about HIV, which statistically speaking isn’t likely to be the thing that fucks them up…. that person had one view of the risk they faced.

You know, I have had guys admit to my face that their attitude to me is that while I may not actually deserve my False Rape Accusation, if you do what I did and fuck and mother and daughter regularly for many years then you have to sort of expect it… these guys have one view of the risk I faced.

The fact is, as the above two examples prove, we are very very very bad at calculating risk and coming to factual and correct answers.

If you live in the western world, answer me these questions;

1. What is the possibility that you are in an environment where utterly false allegations of rape can be laid against you, and you can lose your life or liberty as a result?
2. What is the possibility that you are in an environment where utterly false allegations of domestic violence and abuse can be laid against you, and you can lose your home, job and all your possessions as a result?
3. What is the possibility that you are in an environment where utterly false allegations of violence, abuse or neglect can be laid against you, and you can lose your children forever as a result?

If you live in the western world, and your answer to any of these questions was anything other than “100% total absolute utter guaranteed certainty” then you are a textbook example of someone who doesn’t have a clue about the actual day to day risks involved in living in the world they are living in.

Because if you live in the western world, the possibility that you live in those three environments, which is the question actually asked, is 100%

The possibility / probability that scenario’s 1, 2 or 3 will actually happen to you is of course much lower, but the possibility that you live in a place where they can happen is 100%

The possibility of being in the dining area or a shark is 100% if you swim in the sea off certain coasts, let’s say the  Mexican coast, the probability of actually being lunch is lower, but the possibility applied equally to all who swim off that coast.

For the average human being, being lunch for a shark or a croc is, from the perspective of statistics, an incredibly incredibly rare thing, it is probably out there with being struck by lightning or being run over by your own car….. we are talking lottery number odds.

As I sit here are type this in the southern UK, a few miles from the coast, my chances of being lunch of a shark or croc are so low as to approach zero. After all, I am not in there environment where such things are possible.

And yet, you take an average person like me, and transport them to the environment where such things are possible, even despite the still vanishingly small odds, world + dog starts crapping themselves about being shark bait or croc bait, not because it WILL happen, not because it is LIKELY to happen, because it isn’t, but because all of a sudden it COULD happen.

I go from 0.0% risk of actually being eaten by a shark this year to 0.000001% risk of actually being eaten by a shark this year, the difference is minuscule, but I go from a 0.0% possibility of being in an environment where being eaten by a shark is possible, to a 100% possibility of being in an environment where being eaten by a shark is possible.

Suddenly it CAN happen, so I get scared.

I don’t do anything even remotely accurate at gauging how likely it is, like the person above who was scared of dying of HIV, in an environment where they are far more likely to die in a car crash, of cancer or with their particular family history a heart attack.

So we can see that what we as human being are sensitive to is a BINARY CHANGE in the environment of risk, switching between being in an environment where the possibility of being eaten by a shark is zero, and an environment in which it is so close to zero it is a one in a million chance.

What we are really crap at, is being sensitive to the actual risk, in this tropical environment, am I more at risk of dying from a shark / croc attack, or a mugger’s knife?

And all this means that those changes that we are sensitive to, are the ones that affect our behaviour… go to the tropics, start worrying about sharks and crocodiles, start staying out of rivers and seas…. go to the tropics, stop worrying about muggers because you are on holiday, walk though what constitutes down-town after dark, start doing it with a new Nikon around your neck….

In both cases you were sensitive to the wrong changes in environment and made a bad judgement call.

People from those places coming here just substitute shark for SUV and crocodile for mugger.

If we were GOOD at calculating risk, we would treat being in the western world as the equivalent of being in Stalinist Russia or North Korea, or Afghanistan, places where, like our three questions, there is a 100% possibility of finding yourself in an environment where you yourself can lose your life, liberty, family, possessions, at the whim of another human being, who decides to tell one single lie about you… with no recourse or punishment, but usually reward, for the putative liar in question.

Contrast and compare a 100% possibility of living in an environment where those three things can happen, and then ramping up the probability that one of them will happen, by getting married, by having kids, or by fucking a mother and daughter at the same time, and the 100% possibility of living in an environment where getting eaten by a shark or croc can happen, and then ramping up the probability that one of them will, by going swimming with bleeding wounds, by going swimming with bits of raw meat attached to you, by going swimming where you can actually see sharks or crocs hanging around, shooting the shit, waiting for lunch to drop in.

If we were good at judging risk, we’d see getting married as being equivalent to emigrating to Stalinist Russia, having children as being equivalent to emigrating to North Korea, and fucking a mother and daughter as equivalent to emigrating to Afghanistan.

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Thought for the day…

It’s like those PoF wimminz who type that they are looking for “nice genuine men” instead of “nice genuine man“.. it isn’t what they MEANT to type, but that does note mean it is not the TRUTH.

Related articles

• How I survived a shark attack and learned some valuable lessons (theconversation.edu.au)
• Even sharks have social networks (msnbc.msn.com)
• Thinking about shark bites (and attending a meeting) (learntodivetoday.wordpress.com)