Take a look at a map of Europe, google maps is good for this, pick any place in Europe (I mean Europe, not the EU) then pick any other place, then let Google plan the route.
Warsaw to Paris say, 989 road miles, that’s about two tanks of fuel on any modern diesel car, and 15 hours driving.
I currently have parked outside an example of such a “modern diesel car”, it is an old volvo estate that I paid 600 quid for…. carry 6 people easy.
If we look at this we can see that the German roads can reasonably flow 300 vehicles per lane per hour even in congested traffic, so we are at 6 x 300 x 24 = 43,000 people per lane per day, call it 100,000 people per day per two lane (in the same direction) road, so if we call the population of Poland 38 million the entire population can make the journey down any two lane road from Warsaw to Paris in 38,000,000 / 100,000 = 380 days or just about a year.
If the population of Paris is 2.2 million then in three weeks one two lane highway can double it.
And all it takes is for everyone to have an old diesel car and two tanks of fuel…. and ONE two lane highway that remains open.
The fact is that there are at least six roads from Warsaw that head west or south, all of which have more than our stated two lane capacity, so we have gone from 100,000 a day to 600,000 a day being conservative, and 1,000,000 a day if we want to push it, which is what we are talking about, people pushing it.
This is the bit none of the disaster movies get, they all show the populace fleeing the cities and getting stuck and dying on the freeways while still in sight of the cities they are fleeing, and this might have been true for much of human history, but not anymore.
What’s that? The roads are blocked by broken down and out of fuel cars you say?
Did you not see the bit about 100,000 people per day per 2 lane road, even if only 10% of them are adult males who are fit that is 10,000 people per day to simply lift and move cars off the highway, it is a trivial issue.
Nor do they have to stop every five miles to raid a supermarket or farm and rape and pillage a local village, even ONE tank of fuel is enough for 500 miles, and 500 miles is the next country along on your journey.
None of the rapefugees flowing around Europe are getting where they are getting by walking, they are being bussed and trained there, just be thankful they are NOT turning up in cars… the numbers would be *wildly* different.
I want to go back to my £600 diesel car, we are talking the same money as a modern smartphone people, such a vehicle is not a rare item in Europe, and only 1 in 6 people need to possess one to transport all 6 people 1,000 miles across Europe in 18 hours.
THESE are the numbers that TPTB are crunching, when they are looking at the implications of an economic collapse.
The Mediterrenean islands are islands that you want to be getting OFF, the Biscay islands (and the UK) and the islands that you want to be getting ON.
The bottleneck provided by things like water barriers are the only thing that can stem the flow, short of field nuclear weapons.
Dunkirk took 8 days and the help of a flotilla of little ships to evacuate 360,000 across the channel, so around 45,000 a DAY, and one 2 lane road and old diesel cars can move 100,000 a day, drawfing what was a herculean all out effort by everyone with anything that floated along 500 miles of English coasline and ports.
So you NEED bottlenecks, especially if you are France or Germany etc, there is a good one at Istanbul, just two bridges, so then you are looking at a scenario where your ultimate borders are dependent on Spain and Italy and the Balkan states, oh, and Russia.
Or a Scenario where none of the above are either on your side, or able to do anything effective on your behalf because you are not on speaking terms with them.
One old diesel car with one tank full of fuel, which is easy enough to “prep” and squirrel away in man portable 25 litre containers, jerry cans in other words.
I know a couple of guys many years ago, they bought an old london black cab with the BMC 2.2 diesel engine, thing did about 30 mpg on a run at 50 mph, in the large passenger luggage space behind the drivers seat they fitted a 55 gallon drum, 55 x 30 = 1,650 mile range, they drove to Athens and back, and had to buy fuel in Riems, 220 miles short of the ferry back to the UK.
It’s not the same world that it was in 1939, some things really are different this time.
Generals always fight the last war, as the saying goes, I’m quite sure that the exact same thing applies within the continental United States, whether it be civil war or another great depression, but everyone will be an Okie with a pickup, and those bastards have some roads that are six lanes wide and even more, so take both sides of the central reservation (eg eastbound and westbound, 6 + 6 = 12 lanes) and you’re looking at 600,000 people per day travelling up to 1,000 miles from where they started, San Diego to Dallas, 1,300 miles, or 20 hours driving. so 2 days and Dallas population could double, and that 1.2 million moto-immigrants only need to carry water and shit by the side of the road to get from A to B.
It won’t be like the movies.
It won’t be like the past.
These are the numbers the powers that be are crunching, they are not wrong to be terrified, the modern motor vehicle and a tank of fuel means there aren’t any safe havens any more.
I’m picturing some prepper in Oregon with a year’s worth of beans and water purifying tablets and 10,000 rounds of ammo, and 10,000 people per minute moving up the nearest interstate, even FEMA’s 60 million rounds of hollowpoint isn’t gonna be enough.