Wimminz – celebrating skank ho's everywhere

Q. What do the Yellowstone caldera and my car have in common?

A. They are both going to blow up, sometime.

It’s a crucial point, we can say with the closest thing we can ever get to in real life to absolute certainly, that both will at some point blow.

Precisely when and how and how badly? That’s impossible to predict in advance.

Statistics and odds are useful to insurance actuaries and bookmakers, because both are playing the odds to make money, but notably almost all forms of insurance policy make a specific written exception for things classed as acts of god.

Getting “more data” and “better data” is useful to the bookmaker and the actuary to find tune the odds they offer you, as an aside I’ve never understood why people accept that 7 to 4 on is the odds of your pony winning at the track, and refuse to accept that an annual car insurance premium of £2,000 on a £1,000 car is also your odds of fucking up, vehicular wise.

So here in the UK it’s for example not so much about knowing when Yellowstone is going to let go, it’s about getting the news early, and going out and buying plenty of tinned food and respirators and masking tape, you can’t affect whether or not the event is going to happen, you can affect how it impacts upon you personally.

Yes, you are deliberately adopting a strategy that means that you will not suffer to the same extent as those around you, selfish is another name for survival… it’s not the same as adopting a strategy that profits from their loss, eg theft

If your conscience pains you, by all means advise your friends and neighbours to do likewise and stock up on tinned food and respirators and masking tape, after you have got your own in, and make sure you say you yourself are just about to do so in the next couple of days if things get any worse, not that you have done so… they *will* remember your comment, and assume you have enough to go around, and will give of it freely.

If it’s not a supervolcano caldera, if it’s just a car, the same thing applies, you can’t predict when it will happen, but because it is a much smaller system that you have some control over, you *can* take steps that are *likely* to delay and / or minimise the event, by taking preventative maintenance steps.

Your neighbours car that you don’t control? Fuck all you can do about that…

So if we move away from mechanical and natural disasters to financial and economic ones, again, you can’t control the outcome for everyone, but you can make life easier for yourself.

Apart from an overdraft *facility* of 1,250 quid at the bank on one current account, and one (zero balance) credit card with a limit of 500 quid at the same bank, I not only do not owe any money or have any credit, I can’t get to the point where I owe 2 grand even if I tried, so even if interest rates go back to 34% APR overnight, there is a hard limit to how much shit I can get in, and absolutely *nothing* that I own is financed or leased or rented or borrowed, so nobody can take shit on pretext of some debt or other.

It’s the financial / asset equivalent of tinned food / respirators / masking tape for a Yellowstone event.

Can I predict the financial / economic crash? Hell no, nor can anyone else, no matter how much data they have, the difference is I do accept both that it is inevitable and that I’ll have bugger all warning, the difference is I’m not trying to party hearty while the music is still playing.

Hopefully some of you will be familiar with cars like the 60’s chevy impala with the big block V8, a land yacht if ever there was one, over on some of the HD forums now they are talking about the new model range, 900+ lb land barges with 120 cubic inch engines that on a cc per lb basis are no better than a 1949 panhead.

Funny how the top of the range cruiser/baggers from Yamaha and Honda and so on all stick around the same weight and the same cc per lb numbers, so everyone is making fucking half ton 2 wheeled land yachts.

Trying to make these things as nimble as an SR500 suzi single is like trying to make an Impala as nimble as an original mini, so all the shit you add to offset the effects of the extra weight is just lipstick on a pig.

I’m still not putting my dick in that.

I feel like walking into one of these showrooms and looking at one of these 30 thousand dollar land yachts and asking where the fucking jacuzzi and slushee machine is, because I’m not buying a fucking 30 grand thousand pound motorsickle unless it has a fucking jacuzzi and a slushee… no sir..

Saw a 2017 model HD bagger pull into a nursery / garden store a few weeks ago as I was taking my mother there, it was *real* hard to not walk up to the guy and ask if he was maybe going to do a rockery in one pannier with a koi pond in the other one and some nice alpine planting in the fairing…

As I type rumours abound that the 2018 gold wing top range model will have a V12, and a dual leany front wheel arrangement and CVT, probably weigh in around 1,250 lbs dry… fuck it, Honda is big enough to make 500 bikes like that for a joke…. and offer them for sale for 40 thousand bucks a pop, you know, guys upgrading from a boss hoss.

Yeah, my 300 lb wife is really a great fuck when you get to know her.

But, I digress.

I’m getting away from the point of this post, which is that 99.9% of the people I meet want an answer, as in, a specific answer that they can take to the bank, on questions that by definition do not have answers.

For example, no seismologist should ever do anything except present the data they have, and add the comment “I do not, can not, and will not, predict the future”

Never met one that sticks to that, like forensic guys in court they can’t resist talking about odds, 1 in 75,000 chance of that happening, because they know damn well people will play those numbers.

UK National lottery, 14.5 million to one odds and £2 a pop, do it 52 weeks a year and you bet £104 on 14.5 million to one odds.

Odds of a Yellowstone eruption any one year, 750,000 to 1, so nearly 20 times as likely as a lottery win, so on the same basis worthy of £2,000 per year invested… any takers?

This isn’t even going anywhere near the issue that 2,000 quids worth of dried rice (pour it in 5 gallon jerry cans and seal) and tinned foods per year are still owned by you and still edible, but 104 quid on the lottery gets you 52 tiny pieces of paper you can’t even wipe your ass with.

WTF is wrong with people?

Yeah, that explains it.

Conversation I had with someone yesterday, I’ve been telling you for over two years now that everything you have been told is a lie, and for two years you have been telling me you get it, and yet, I show you some stuff (like the video above, very notable Australian and Canadian prime ministers making the same speech, word for word, 4 days apart) you go oh wow, so clearly you DO NOT get it.

Everything means EVERY SINGLE FUCKING THING.

*some* of it is coming out in small dribs and drabs, and people still refuse it, they cite Saudi’s refusing fords entry because henry ford was a jew, forgetting or deliberately ignoring the house of Saud and the Israelis have been known as the two sisters of the middle east for 70 years, now it comes out israeli jets are going to Saudi to protect the *new* Saudi succession, yeah, life long enemies huh.

The whole Israel / Saudi / quatar / iran / Syria (US/ UK / russia / china) thing is another Yellowstone or another car, nobody can say when or how, but certain bad outcomes are nonetheless inevitable.

Answers are not invalid or wrong simply because you don’t like them or can’t use them or won’t use them, nobody has any idea *when* Yellowstone will go, or when my car will blow up, or when the middle east will erupt.

And tomorrow is as likely as next year or five years time for all three.

Same as flipping a coin, the odds never change, and no amount of history or analysis or data will predict the next throw, much less the series of the next ten.