I am curious about the Ukronazis’ violation of Minsk and their unrelenting shelling. Are they advancing or just staying in place? I am not hearing about them being repelled so it sounds essentially like the latter. If so, what exactly do they hope to achieve by it?
Keeping the civilian population in fear is one thing but from a tactical military perspective it doesn’t seem to make any sense.
If anything I think the General in the Vox interview was being very diplomatic. In other words, too polite to point out to his American guests that the Russian Army if actually unleashed on the UAF would cut through them like crap through a goose and have armor on the Dnieper within 100 hours, spetsnaz and VDV within 48 hours of the order given. And that in the event that so much of the UAF were encircled some would get out and flee as civilians to non-occupied Ukraine, but a hell of a lot of Polish, Lithuanian and American mercs and NATO advisers (Ukro-Canadians?) whom Washington claimed were never near the DNR/LNR front lines would get caught, with no Ukie uniforms or civilian clothes subterfuge allowing them to pass as UAF and not get put on YouTube even if NATO imposed a total blackout on Western TV channels showing the US/NATO POWs caught in the mother of all cauldrons.
But obviously doing that would give many in Washington their wet dream of a perpetual war with Russia and possibly doom Europe to being stuck in the EU/NATO straitjacket for another fifteen to twenty years, as Washington sucked its euro-allies dry. Thats the scenario even if the war hawks screaming for bloody retaliation by Washington did not get their way and all the U.S., Canadian and Polish mercs/advisers were quickly or even quietly exchanged.
Even if the NAF could be expanded using Ukrainian side-switchers, deserters and draft evaders to double in size within weeks, sparing Russia the lengthy occupation Z. Bzrezinski and others clearly lust for to bleed the Bear with Ukro-partisan operations…I don’t see Putin wanting to do that. And this general with his experience of working with the Western/US/NATO on arms control is playing ‘good cop’ as is Fyodor Lukyanov. The warnings we see on Ft. Rus as to how quickly the RF forces would destroy or encircle the UAF that the lower level people at the Pentagon or DIA read is the ‘bad cop’ warnings, as are the stepped up displays of hardware and nuclear-capable bomber flights.
The trigger for Russia is a breakthrough into Donetsk or a sweep to the border of Lugansk by the Ukies. If that somehow occurs and the Russians have to use fast mobile forces, then the consequences for Russia is the same whether they merely drive back the Ukies to their designated ceasefire positions or blow up the regime and drive the CIA and State Dept, NATO and DOD back to Poland and Lithuania. That is abundantly clear. Russia will never get off sanctions if they move. So, if they are forced to move to save Donbass, they will wipe out forever any governmental structure of Ukraine.
It is clear they have game planned what the costs are or will be and what happens afterward.
I suspect Putin is ratcheting the Voentorg so no event by the Ukies will result in the need for Russian action.
Anonymous, this is the most definitive article I could find on risk of Turkey’s invading Syria:
May 4 ” Dengir Mir Mehmet Firat, former Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputy chairman and current parliamentary candidate for the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP). According to Firat, failure by the HDP to pass the 10% election threshold in Turkey could lead to serious tumult. Firat bluntly warned, “If the AKP government and [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, mired in corruption, feel in danger, they will not hesitate even to start a war with another country to delay the election.”
Given the implications of these claims, all eyes are now on Ankara. Al-Monitor spoke to several security sources, all of whom requested anonymity. They all said that for the time being, the possibility of a ground operation against Syria or Iraq is not on the table in Ankara.
four major risks in a possible ground operation against Syria:
It would totally wreak havoc on Turkey’s border security, which is already experiencing serious structural and legal problems, and would transfer the clashes in Syria to Turkey. The source said, “Just think of the logistics flow to units that will enter Syria. That traffic alone will snarl the border even more.” Another source told Al-Monitor, “The minute the Turkish army crosses the Syrian border, the security of the Turkey-Syria border will decrease to zero.”
The Turkish military is not keen on cooperating with Syrian opposition groups. An intervention would definitely require more cooperation with radical Islamist groups, which would further harm Turkey’s already tarnished global image and heighten the perception of a country supporting terrorism.
The shortest prediction in Ankara for an end to the Syrian crisis is another two to three years, so an intervention could mean a long-term engagement for the Turkish army inside Syria.
Such an operation could compel the Turkish military to cooperate with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which currently dominates areas of northern Syria. The military’s reaction to reports that it had cooperated with the PYD during the evacuation of the Tomb of Suleiman Shah from northern Syria was a reflection of that concern.
I looked at your “Syrianperspectives” link. Doesn’t look like a reliable source to me: too sensationalist. Also article states there’s a mutual defense pact between Syria & Iran which would be triggered by Saudi or Turkey attack. I don’t think this is so, haven’t heard of it previously.
All the same this Turkey/Saudi cooperation against Assad is a ghastly development. Wonder what it will mean to Turkish Stream. The reason Saudis/Qatar want Assad gone is so they can put their own gas across Syria into Europe– thus cutting out the Russians & Iranians.
Anonymous, I forgot — there are reports the Houthis have taken a couple of positions inside the Saudi border, so the Saudis might be a little busy soon.
I do not believe Turkey invasion of Syria is imminent,k cuz this takes preparation & a couple military personnel say no preparations underway. I don’t even think they’ll go for a no fly zone w/o US participation.
Anonymous, However, it’s interesting that Turkey is aligning w the TTIP in order to be included in the tariff-free zone of EU/US which will result:
May 6 Turkey has won its customs union struggle with the European Union, which decided not to exclude Turkey from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) it’s about to conclude with the United States. The customs union agreement between the EU and Turkey is scheduled to be signed May 11.
The Empire has definitely GOT to kill Turkstream, if they don’t then by mid-2017 or whenever the pipeline is completed Kiev loses all of its leverage and any Ukro-assault on Donbas no matter how well-trained and equipped the UAF will be by then (or accompanied by U.S./NATO mercs, however denied) will lead to an instant gas cutoff by Russia and subsequent economic chaos in Ukraine. As well as pain for the EU now matter how much gas the Empire thinks its vassals can store for that ultimate rainy day while southeastern Europe including Greece, Hungary, Macedonia and Serbia would have all the gas they need via Turkstream. So I don’t exclude the Empire being desperate enough to even play the ISIS sabotage card against the pipe if it cannot be scuttled via electoral manipulation and use of the dirty Turkish Deep State. As we need to remind folks who were enthusiastic about the Turkstream deal, Washington still knows which Turkish pols and spooks personally profit from the heroin smack trade through Incirlik AFB. That’s according to Jim Willie.
OTOH if the Empire can’t stop Turkstream the U.S. geostrategic position in both southeastern and central Europe, as well as ability to punish the Greeks and Hungarians seriously diminishes. As would Washington’s leverage over Turkey to keep Ankara out of the Eurasian Trade Zone.
I really don’t understand why Russia doesn’t see that Europe is just a lost cause.Without war Europe is an Empire vassal and will continue to be so no matter how much they hate it.The Empire control is just too deep to change that.They won’t free themselves unless the Empire fell first.As for Turkey its the same.The fact that they play ball with Saudi Arabia to destroy Syria shows they can’t be Russia’s friend.Russia can’t have it both way.They must choose.Either hope to work with a country that in reality hates them (its history).Or work with a country that is their friend.Trying to play both sides is a bad idea.They will lose their friend ,just to be betrayed by the country that isn’t their friend.Russia should just protect their own interests (which means destroying the junta and liberating Ukraine).Thinking that Europe will suddenly see “the light” is just plain foolishness.Look at the EU Parliament wanting more sanctions,the French not releasing the Mistrals.The British electorate keeping Cameron in power.The snubbing of May 9th,and the coming TTIP.Just how many times do they need to be spit on to get the message “they ain’t your friends”.
Uncle Bob I, Friends & hates aside– just speaking of amoral interests for the moment: Germany & France are still entertaining the possibility of the US winning & the dissolution of Russia, with great gains in territory & resources for Germany & France.
On the other hand, the possibility of major war on the continent must be tamping down their enthusiasm. What Russia promises is a “sure thing” (trade, energy security, peace) if the US is weakened further. What the US promises is (as always) prospective: “Stick w us & this’s what you’ll get, baby.”
The responsible diplomat will always keep trying to influence as many countries as possible. Giving up on them just hands them to the US. The EU greatly strengthens US. Russia may not be greatly gaining w the corrupt Hollande & Merkel, but MUST be gaining with their populations, business class, educated people, etc. They are absolutely necessary to the US, so why not keep trying? EU considerations aside I don’t think Russia wd choose to take Ukraine militarily.
Penelope,
If anything bet each way on turkey. They are sitting on the fence having a bet each way, pipeline through turkey and ISIS/Al Qaeda – and will end up sodomized by a fence picket.
I can’t find anything on dates for signing the TTIP. I don’t think they \are ready yet. They are arguing about whether or not to allow the Investment Court, in which, as currently formulated, companies could sue governments for losses caused by laws the governments make. Some politicians are suggesting maybe the populace should be allowed to vote on signing or not (a hard one as not even the negotiators have seen everything in the agreement).
So it looks like it might be a while yet. If they are really lucky it still won’t be signed when the dollar starts to go so low that even they can’t help but notice.
Kat Kan, yeah I think Turkey got duped on this one.
I understand even Congress is balking on Fast Track for TTIP. I don’t know what the conditions are here for being allowed to read part of this immense document. I read last year that in order for European Parliament members to read it, they had to make an appointment, go to a room for a circumscribed period of time. They weren’t allowed to copy any part of it, or even take a pencil into the room w them!
The problem and probably the right answer is here:
Ukraine: the prodigal daughter did not return home voluntarily | Russian Spring
Who dares question or millions of people, the “lost tribe” to return to the Russian world, or leave it forever.
Analyzing the enemy, we often put his head in his own view of the world. Hence errors that in politics, as it is known, more dangerous than the crime.
What are the objectives of Russia in the Ukrainian opponents conflict?
Well, with the United States more or less clear. In order not to list all the points of, say briefly: US goal – to deliver maximum trouble in Russia. All sorts of trouble – political, military, financial.
But what is the goal of the Kiev authorities? Who are these people who govern Ukraine today? No personal motivations of each of these people are interesting, and combining their ideology.
Their ideology – Ukrainian radical nationalism. Their purpose – to carry out de-Russification of Ukraine. Clean Ukraine from the “Russian” in all areas: politics, economy, history, culture and language. Only in this way, in their opinion, the Ukrainian nation can win a place under the sun.
It’s only in the national epic and the history books of the nation occur by the symbiosis of some prehistoric tribes. In the real world, a nation born by brazen appropriation, privatization of part of the territory, history and culture, before that is in common use.
Nation creates regional elite, decided to isolate themselves rather than the ancient tribes. Bacon lovers want to privatize a very extensive piece of an all-Russian territory, history and culture.
No matter whether in the offices of the Ukrainian leaders to hang portraits of Bandera, Shukhevych, stylized swastikas and so on. When will Bandera tactically bad, throw it out, replaced by something more politically correct. But the goal remains the same – de-Russification, “squeezing” from Russia itself.
It does not matter, and the fact that some of the top Ukrainian is, shall we say, a nationalist necessarily. This small detail does not change anything in substance. Such a person will not get real power, and if he receives, it will take a common nationalist wave.
The well-being and safety of people living in Ukraine is not a priority for the nationalists. Of course, they are not opposed to controlled populations to eat well, lived in a comfortable apartment and relax on the prestigious resorts. But this is not a priority.
From the perspective of a radical nationalist population as such has no value. Value has a population that has been formatted in the nation. And if the formatting process will require the blood of the ocean and Mt lies, then so be it. The end justifies the means.
This is a political portrait of the enemy. The real, not invented by science fiction spin doctors.
The conclusion.
First, Ukraine will not return to the Russian sort prodigal daughter, begging for forgiveness, even if it is to live very poorly, very poorly. It is naive to count on it. No one in these cases, no one ever did not return voluntarily.
The nationalists, retaining control of the education system and the media (in this they have enough money), will recruit new supporters, explaining to them that the poverty and chaos of Ukrainian life caused by aggression from Russia. Doubters will be engaged in repressive bodies.
Second, the “Ukrainian Ukraine” can not be a friend or an ally of Russia. It will be the enemy, do not turn away from this bitter truth. The process of formation of the Ukrainian nation in the community requires maintaining high pitch of anti-Russian feelings.
Hence the slogan “We do not need Donbass, we need all of Ukraine!” Is productive only if the planned political and military defeat of the Kiev regime. With the subsequent stripping of the country from heresy “Ukrainians.”
By internal evolution regime friendly to Russia will not turn aside. The evolution of his lead in the opposite direction.
But if military and political defeat of the junta unrealistic objective reasons?
Then, in the interest of Russia to Ukraine it was as little as possible. The smaller the area, which will prevail heresy “Ukrainians,” the better for Russia. In my opinion, it’s obvious.
Maybe enough already vizantiystvovat on “united and friendly,” and put the question of the division of Ukraine on the agenda? Taking into account the interests of not only Russia but also other countries bordering with Ukraine.
Unit – is not only area is – people.
How many Russian and Ukrainians living in Ukraine? The question is very difficult, the official statistics will not help here. The nation – is not a static category, its size and composition are in continuous dynamics.
Undoubtedly, part of the Ukrainian population feels Ukrainians strictly according to the formula of “Ukraine – not Russia, Ukrainian – not Russian.” That is today the real number of the Ukrainian nation, the same beef that can not rotate back.
I suppose that roughly the same number of people in Ukraine feel Russian. In the documents, they may be recorded “Ukrainian” or even they themselves call themselves “the Ukrainians”, but “Ukrainians” is perceived as a regional feature (such as resident calls himself a Siberian Siberia), does not negate the supplies to the Russian people.
But half the population of Ukraine, which is called “hung” between. This is quite natural: pre-conflict man had no urgent need for self-identification.
Who dares question or millions of people, the “lost tribe” to return to the Russian world, or leave it forever.
“The head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) calls on Russia to return to its delegation. This Anne Brasseur said, while a three-day visit to Georgia.
It is noted that the Assembly would consider the return of the good of the Russian delegation, but is not ready to return to her right to vote as long as the Russian Federation does not confirm the respect of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia.
“Voting rights of the Russian delegation to PACE only suspended, but they have decided to no longer with us does not work”, – she said, noting that the Assembly “has not stopped the credentials of the Russian delegation, because it wants to and is willing to continue the dialogue.”
anna news
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EU beginning to wake up , especially as EU is asking Yats for any? proof of Odessa investigation….?
Euro parliament members demand from Ukraine’s PM to present Odessa probe results.
Investigation of crimes against Maidan, violent events in Odessa and crimes committed by former officials: PGO has established numerous cases to hinder investigation of crimes against Maidan by law enforcement agencies, namely by the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Interior Ministry, and the SBU. PGO has created single register of crimes committed during Euromaidan events.
The International Advisory Panel, set up by the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, provided a brief overview of its work regarding the investigations carried out by the domestic authorities into violent events of 2 May 2014 in Odesa. The PGO filed the first case against a suspect in murder during the riots in Odesa, May 2, 2014. The Prosecutor has notified that the former head of the Interior Ministry in Odessa Region, Petro Lutsiuk is under suspicion of negligence of duties during the tragic events in Odesa on May 2, 2014. http://www.cepolicy.org/publications/cepi-ukraine-watch
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EU will not offer visa-free travel for Ukraine, Georgia at summit — European Commission.
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“An active dialog or perhaps even an inactive dialog is actually absent, due to which we can only express our regret and say that Russia is interested in good relations of mutually advantageous cooperation with all countries, including the UK,” the Kremlin spokesman said.
May 7. /TASS/. Russia is receiving signals from NATO on possible resumption of cooperation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after a meeting with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Thursday.
Lavrov: Russia, Germany to do their utmost to prevent repetition of war.
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Russia’s international reserves grow by $5 bln to $358.5 bln over week — regulator.
Spokesman says Kremlin didn’t make Russian businesses withdraw capital from UK
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KIEV, May 8. /TASS/. US aid to the Ukrainian armed forces has reached $ 25 million, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Viktoria Kushnir told reporters on Friday.
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Russia’s ambassador summoned to Latvia’s Foreign Ministry over interview
Russia May 08, 8:24 UTC+3
Russia’s ambassador expressed his criticism of Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics’ statements comparing a modern Russia with the Third Reich
and
No shale gas supplies from US to Latvia expected in nearest years — Latvian minister.
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Norwegian daily calls PM’s decision to stay away from VE-Day trip to Moscow cowardly. Serbian foreign minister not going either now.
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May 7. /TASS/. Twenty five former members of Ukraine’s disbanded Berkut special police force unit from Kharkiv have asked the Crimean authorities to grant them asylum, speaker of the Crimean State Council Vladimir Konstantinov told journalists on Thursday. Many dozens of former Berkut are already living in Crimea; some are employed in the poiice there.
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DPR Azov sea fighting unit recently formed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0YpHJSS5nM
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Kiev owes 3.4 b dollars for hot water to Ukraine gas suppliers, can’t afford to heat homes to 25 C either now and in future. Up to 35% of users can no longer afford to pay their bills, which rose again on May1.
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The Administrative Court of Berlin found that the police had no right to deny entry to Russian bikers, since they have all the documents were in order. But, as it turns out, hysteria does not stop there.
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Some team to investigate social conditions is assessing and reporting from Donbass, not sure of its impartiality if contains Polish, Canadian, Moldovan representatives, but under leadership of Danish person.
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Humanitarian affairs: German government was told of the risk of flying over eastern Ukraine shortly before flight MH17 was shot down last July, but failed to pass on the alert, German media reported. Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders reported progress in inquiry into downing of Malaysian jetliner. International investigators have finished recovering human remains and wreckage from the MH17 crash site in Ukraine.
===========================
Belgium has decided to allocate € 50.000 for the Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Canada announced humanitarian assistance funding of $15 million. Poland and Germany will send a joint humanitarian convoy to Ukraine to support the refugees from Donbas. UNDP, UNICEF and the International Labour Organization will launch a number of programs in Ukraine to help IDPs and to ensure economic and social recovery of Donbas, with the use USD 16 million allocated by the government of Japan. Canadian FM Rob Nicholson announced another $14 million in aid to the Ukraine.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: Situation report No. 37 as of 24 April 2015. Overview of population displacement (as of 24 April 2015). Council of Europe anti-torture Committee publishes report on Ukraine.(CEPI report again extract).
some look like they were blue links in the original; could you try to cut those out please? they’re just headlines so don’t make much sense. OTOH good ones would be worth following and posting the usable link
I am curious about the Ukronazis’ violation of Minsk and their unrelenting shelling. Are they advancing or just staying in place? I am not hearing about them being repelled so it sounds essentially like the latter. If so, what exactly do they hope to achieve by it?
Keeping the civilian population in fear is one thing but from a tactical military perspective it doesn’t seem to make any sense.
http://www.vox.com/2015/5/7/8566035/former-top-russian-general-russia-will-defend-eastern-ukraine-even-if
Retired Russian General on Ukraine, what war with Russia would look like inside Ukraine, nukes, etc.
Very clear exposition of Russian strategy, tactics, doctrine and geopolitical POV.
Excellent.
Good info,thx
The embedded vid. is a stinkapolooza: all full of disinformation and pro-hegemonic slant.
Hi Red Ryder,
If anything I think the General in the Vox interview was being very diplomatic. In other words, too polite to point out to his American guests that the Russian Army if actually unleashed on the UAF would cut through them like crap through a goose and have armor on the Dnieper within 100 hours, spetsnaz and VDV within 48 hours of the order given. And that in the event that so much of the UAF were encircled some would get out and flee as civilians to non-occupied Ukraine, but a hell of a lot of Polish, Lithuanian and American mercs and NATO advisers (Ukro-Canadians?) whom Washington claimed were never near the DNR/LNR front lines would get caught, with no Ukie uniforms or civilian clothes subterfuge allowing them to pass as UAF and not get put on YouTube even if NATO imposed a total blackout on Western TV channels showing the US/NATO POWs caught in the mother of all cauldrons.
But obviously doing that would give many in Washington their wet dream of a perpetual war with Russia and possibly doom Europe to being stuck in the EU/NATO straitjacket for another fifteen to twenty years, as Washington sucked its euro-allies dry. Thats the scenario even if the war hawks screaming for bloody retaliation by Washington did not get their way and all the U.S., Canadian and Polish mercs/advisers were quickly or even quietly exchanged.
Even if the NAF could be expanded using Ukrainian side-switchers, deserters and draft evaders to double in size within weeks, sparing Russia the lengthy occupation Z. Bzrezinski and others clearly lust for to bleed the Bear with Ukro-partisan operations…I don’t see Putin wanting to do that. And this general with his experience of working with the Western/US/NATO on arms control is playing ‘good cop’ as is Fyodor Lukyanov. The warnings we see on Ft. Rus as to how quickly the RF forces would destroy or encircle the UAF that the lower level people at the Pentagon or DIA read is the ‘bad cop’ warnings, as are the stepped up displays of hardware and nuclear-capable bomber flights.
Good point, Kulak.
The trigger for Russia is a breakthrough into Donetsk or a sweep to the border of Lugansk by the Ukies. If that somehow occurs and the Russians have to use fast mobile forces, then the consequences for Russia is the same whether they merely drive back the Ukies to their designated ceasefire positions or blow up the regime and drive the CIA and State Dept, NATO and DOD back to Poland and Lithuania. That is abundantly clear. Russia will never get off sanctions if they move. So, if they are forced to move to save Donbass, they will wipe out forever any governmental structure of Ukraine.
It is clear they have game planned what the costs are or will be and what happens afterward.
I suspect Putin is ratcheting the Voentorg so no event by the Ukies will result in the need for Russian action.
I keep seeing links to this Fisher stuff, which is very biased, and so is the video there — very deceptive.
Syrian Perspective is warning of a possible Turkish invasion of Syria, with a response by Iran, Hizbollah, and Russian ships on standby.
Any word if this is a credible threat?
http://www.syrianperspective.com/2015/05/u-s-foreign-policy-in-tatters-the-war-against-turkeys-erdoghan-has-started-idlib-syrian-army-prepares-assault-on-jisr-al-shughoor-turkeys-dams-in-the-cross-hairs.html
Anonymous, this is the most definitive article I could find on risk of Turkey’s invading Syria:
May 4 ” Dengir Mir Mehmet Firat, former Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputy chairman and current parliamentary candidate for the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP). According to Firat, failure by the HDP to pass the 10% election threshold in Turkey could lead to serious tumult. Firat bluntly warned, “If the AKP government and [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, mired in corruption, feel in danger, they will not hesitate even to start a war with another country to delay the election.”
Given the implications of these claims, all eyes are now on Ankara. Al-Monitor spoke to several security sources, all of whom requested anonymity. They all said that for the time being, the possibility of a ground operation against Syria or Iraq is not on the table in Ankara.
four major risks in a possible ground operation against Syria:
It would totally wreak havoc on Turkey’s border security, which is already experiencing serious structural and legal problems, and would transfer the clashes in Syria to Turkey. The source said, “Just think of the logistics flow to units that will enter Syria. That traffic alone will snarl the border even more.” Another source told Al-Monitor, “The minute the Turkish army crosses the Syrian border, the security of the Turkey-Syria border will decrease to zero.”
The Turkish military is not keen on cooperating with Syrian opposition groups. An intervention would definitely require more cooperation with radical Islamist groups, which would further harm Turkey’s already tarnished global image and heighten the perception of a country supporting terrorism.
The shortest prediction in Ankara for an end to the Syrian crisis is another two to three years, so an intervention could mean a long-term engagement for the Turkish army inside Syria.
Such an operation could compel the Turkish military to cooperate with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which currently dominates areas of northern Syria. The military’s reaction to reports that it had cooperated with the PYD during the evacuation of the Tomb of Suleiman Shah from northern Syria was a reflection of that concern.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/turkey-syria-iraq-military-operation-unlikely.html#ixzz3ZWJDCNrh
Anonymous,
I looked at your “Syrianperspectives” link. Doesn’t look like a reliable source to me: too sensationalist. Also article states there’s a mutual defense pact between Syria & Iran which would be triggered by Saudi or Turkey attack. I don’t think this is so, haven’t heard of it previously.
All the same this Turkey/Saudi cooperation against Assad is a ghastly development. Wonder what it will mean to Turkish Stream. The reason Saudis/Qatar want Assad gone is so they can put their own gas across Syria into Europe– thus cutting out the Russians & Iranians.
Anonymous, I forgot — there are reports the Houthis have taken a couple of positions inside the Saudi border, so the Saudis might be a little busy soon.
I do not believe Turkey invasion of Syria is imminent,k cuz this takes preparation & a couple military personnel say no preparations underway. I don’t even think they’ll go for a no fly zone w/o US participation.
Anonymous, However, it’s interesting that Turkey is aligning w the TTIP in order to be included in the tariff-free zone of EU/US which will result:
May 6 Turkey has won its customs union struggle with the European Union, which decided not to exclude Turkey from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) it’s about to conclude with the United States. The customs union agreement between the EU and Turkey is scheduled to be signed May 11.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/turkey-trade-victory-transatlantic-investment-partnership.html#ixzz3ZWJvZjEz
According to this article EU is about to sign the TTIP; sure hope that’s misinfo.
The Empire has definitely GOT to kill Turkstream, if they don’t then by mid-2017 or whenever the pipeline is completed Kiev loses all of its leverage and any Ukro-assault on Donbas no matter how well-trained and equipped the UAF will be by then (or accompanied by U.S./NATO mercs, however denied) will lead to an instant gas cutoff by Russia and subsequent economic chaos in Ukraine. As well as pain for the EU now matter how much gas the Empire thinks its vassals can store for that ultimate rainy day while southeastern Europe including Greece, Hungary, Macedonia and Serbia would have all the gas they need via Turkstream. So I don’t exclude the Empire being desperate enough to even play the ISIS sabotage card against the pipe if it cannot be scuttled via electoral manipulation and use of the dirty Turkish Deep State. As we need to remind folks who were enthusiastic about the Turkstream deal, Washington still knows which Turkish pols and spooks personally profit from the heroin smack trade through Incirlik AFB. That’s according to Jim Willie.
OTOH if the Empire can’t stop Turkstream the U.S. geostrategic position in both southeastern and central Europe, as well as ability to punish the Greeks and Hungarians seriously diminishes. As would Washington’s leverage over Turkey to keep Ankara out of the Eurasian Trade Zone.
I really don’t understand why Russia doesn’t see that Europe is just a lost cause.Without war Europe is an Empire vassal and will continue to be so no matter how much they hate it.The Empire control is just too deep to change that.They won’t free themselves unless the Empire fell first.As for Turkey its the same.The fact that they play ball with Saudi Arabia to destroy Syria shows they can’t be Russia’s friend.Russia can’t have it both way.They must choose.Either hope to work with a country that in reality hates them (its history).Or work with a country that is their friend.Trying to play both sides is a bad idea.They will lose their friend ,just to be betrayed by the country that isn’t their friend.Russia should just protect their own interests (which means destroying the junta and liberating Ukraine).Thinking that Europe will suddenly see “the light” is just plain foolishness.Look at the EU Parliament wanting more sanctions,the French not releasing the Mistrals.The British electorate keeping Cameron in power.The snubbing of May 9th,and the coming TTIP.Just how many times do they need to be spit on to get the message “they ain’t your friends”.
Uncle Bob I, Friends & hates aside– just speaking of amoral interests for the moment: Germany & France are still entertaining the possibility of the US winning & the dissolution of Russia, with great gains in territory & resources for Germany & France.
On the other hand, the possibility of major war on the continent must be tamping down their enthusiasm. What Russia promises is a “sure thing” (trade, energy security, peace) if the US is weakened further. What the US promises is (as always) prospective: “Stick w us & this’s what you’ll get, baby.”
The responsible diplomat will always keep trying to influence as many countries as possible. Giving up on them just hands them to the US. The EU greatly strengthens US. Russia may not be greatly gaining w the corrupt Hollande & Merkel, but MUST be gaining with their populations, business class, educated people, etc. They are absolutely necessary to the US, so why not keep trying? EU considerations aside I don’t think Russia wd choose to take Ukraine militarily.
Penelope,
If anything bet each way on turkey. They are sitting on the fence having a bet each way, pipeline through turkey and ISIS/Al Qaeda – and will end up sodomized by a fence picket.
I can’t find anything on dates for signing the TTIP. I don’t think they \are ready yet. They are arguing about whether or not to allow the Investment Court, in which, as currently formulated, companies could sue governments for losses caused by laws the governments make. Some politicians are suggesting maybe the populace should be allowed to vote on signing or not (a hard one as not even the negotiators have seen everything in the agreement).
So it looks like it might be a while yet. If they are really lucky it still won’t be signed when the dollar starts to go so low that even they can’t help but notice.
Kat Kan, yeah I think Turkey got duped on this one.
I understand even Congress is balking on Fast Track for TTIP. I don’t know what the conditions are here for being allowed to read part of this immense document. I read last year that in order for European Parliament members to read it, they had to make an appointment, go to a room for a circumscribed period of time. They weren’t allowed to copy any part of it, or even take a pencil into the room w them!
The problem and probably the right answer is here:
Ukraine: the prodigal daughter did not return home voluntarily | Russian Spring
Who dares question or millions of people, the “lost tribe” to return to the Russian world, or leave it forever.
Analyzing the enemy, we often put his head in his own view of the world. Hence errors that in politics, as it is known, more dangerous than the crime.
What are the objectives of Russia in the Ukrainian opponents conflict?
Well, with the United States more or less clear. In order not to list all the points of, say briefly: US goal – to deliver maximum trouble in Russia. All sorts of trouble – political, military, financial.
But what is the goal of the Kiev authorities? Who are these people who govern Ukraine today? No personal motivations of each of these people are interesting, and combining their ideology.
Their ideology – Ukrainian radical nationalism. Their purpose – to carry out de-Russification of Ukraine. Clean Ukraine from the “Russian” in all areas: politics, economy, history, culture and language. Only in this way, in their opinion, the Ukrainian nation can win a place under the sun.
It’s only in the national epic and the history books of the nation occur by the symbiosis of some prehistoric tribes. In the real world, a nation born by brazen appropriation, privatization of part of the territory, history and culture, before that is in common use.
Nation creates regional elite, decided to isolate themselves rather than the ancient tribes. Bacon lovers want to privatize a very extensive piece of an all-Russian territory, history and culture.
No matter whether in the offices of the Ukrainian leaders to hang portraits of Bandera, Shukhevych, stylized swastikas and so on. When will Bandera tactically bad, throw it out, replaced by something more politically correct. But the goal remains the same – de-Russification, “squeezing” from Russia itself.
It does not matter, and the fact that some of the top Ukrainian is, shall we say, a nationalist necessarily. This small detail does not change anything in substance. Such a person will not get real power, and if he receives, it will take a common nationalist wave.
The well-being and safety of people living in Ukraine is not a priority for the nationalists. Of course, they are not opposed to controlled populations to eat well, lived in a comfortable apartment and relax on the prestigious resorts. But this is not a priority.
From the perspective of a radical nationalist population as such has no value. Value has a population that has been formatted in the nation. And if the formatting process will require the blood of the ocean and Mt lies, then so be it. The end justifies the means.
This is a political portrait of the enemy. The real, not invented by science fiction spin doctors.
The conclusion.
First, Ukraine will not return to the Russian sort prodigal daughter, begging for forgiveness, even if it is to live very poorly, very poorly. It is naive to count on it. No one in these cases, no one ever did not return voluntarily.
The nationalists, retaining control of the education system and the media (in this they have enough money), will recruit new supporters, explaining to them that the poverty and chaos of Ukrainian life caused by aggression from Russia. Doubters will be engaged in repressive bodies.
Second, the “Ukrainian Ukraine” can not be a friend or an ally of Russia. It will be the enemy, do not turn away from this bitter truth. The process of formation of the Ukrainian nation in the community requires maintaining high pitch of anti-Russian feelings.
Hence the slogan “We do not need Donbass, we need all of Ukraine!” Is productive only if the planned political and military defeat of the Kiev regime. With the subsequent stripping of the country from heresy “Ukrainians.”
By internal evolution regime friendly to Russia will not turn aside. The evolution of his lead in the opposite direction.
But if military and political defeat of the junta unrealistic objective reasons?
Then, in the interest of Russia to Ukraine it was as little as possible. The smaller the area, which will prevail heresy “Ukrainians,” the better for Russia. In my opinion, it’s obvious.
Maybe enough already vizantiystvovat on “united and friendly,” and put the question of the division of Ukraine on the agenda? Taking into account the interests of not only Russia but also other countries bordering with Ukraine.
Unit – is not only area is – people.
How many Russian and Ukrainians living in Ukraine? The question is very difficult, the official statistics will not help here. The nation – is not a static category, its size and composition are in continuous dynamics.
Undoubtedly, part of the Ukrainian population feels Ukrainians strictly according to the formula of “Ukraine – not Russia, Ukrainian – not Russian.” That is today the real number of the Ukrainian nation, the same beef that can not rotate back.
I suppose that roughly the same number of people in Ukraine feel Russian. In the documents, they may be recorded “Ukrainian” or even they themselves call themselves “the Ukrainians”, but “Ukrainians” is perceived as a regional feature (such as resident calls himself a Siberian Siberia), does not negate the supplies to the Russian people.
But half the population of Ukraine, which is called “hung” between. This is quite natural: pre-conflict man had no urgent need for self-identification.
Who dares question or millions of people, the “lost tribe” to return to the Russian world, or leave it forever.
http://rusvesna.su/recent_opinions/1429886133
Hey! it’s me Uncle Bob
Why don’t you just put the link, with a few words of explanation?
We can read for our selves!
[MOD: he posted it translated.]
bits and pieces:
“The head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) calls on Russia to return to its delegation. This Anne Brasseur said, while a three-day visit to Georgia.
It is noted that the Assembly would consider the return of the good of the Russian delegation, but is not ready to return to her right to vote as long as the Russian Federation does not confirm the respect of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia.
“Voting rights of the Russian delegation to PACE only suspended, but they have decided to no longer with us does not work”, – she said, noting that the Assembly “has not stopped the credentials of the Russian delegation, because it wants to and is willing to continue the dialogue.”
anna news
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EU beginning to wake up , especially as EU is asking Yats for any? proof of Odessa investigation….?
Euro parliament members demand from Ukraine’s PM to present Odessa probe results.
Investigation of crimes against Maidan, violent events in Odessa and crimes committed by former officials: PGO has established numerous cases to hinder investigation of crimes against Maidan by law enforcement agencies, namely by the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Interior Ministry, and the SBU. PGO has created single register of crimes committed during Euromaidan events.
The International Advisory Panel, set up by the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, provided a brief overview of its work regarding the investigations carried out by the domestic authorities into violent events of 2 May 2014 in Odesa. The PGO filed the first case against a suspect in murder during the riots in Odesa, May 2, 2014. The Prosecutor has notified that the former head of the Interior Ministry in Odessa Region, Petro Lutsiuk is under suspicion of negligence of duties during the tragic events in Odesa on May 2, 2014.
http://www.cepolicy.org/publications/cepi-ukraine-watch
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EU will not offer visa-free travel for Ukraine, Georgia at summit — European Commission.
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“An active dialog or perhaps even an inactive dialog is actually absent, due to which we can only express our regret and say that Russia is interested in good relations of mutually advantageous cooperation with all countries, including the UK,” the Kremlin spokesman said.
May 7. /TASS/. Russia is receiving signals from NATO on possible resumption of cooperation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after a meeting with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Thursday.
Lavrov: Russia, Germany to do their utmost to prevent repetition of war.
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Russia’s international reserves grow by $5 bln to $358.5 bln over week — regulator.
Spokesman says Kremlin didn’t make Russian businesses withdraw capital from UK
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KIEV, May 8. /TASS/. US aid to the Ukrainian armed forces has reached $ 25 million, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Viktoria Kushnir told reporters on Friday.
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Russia’s ambassador summoned to Latvia’s Foreign Ministry over interview
Russia May 08, 8:24 UTC+3
Russia’s ambassador expressed his criticism of Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics’ statements comparing a modern Russia with the Third Reich
and
No shale gas supplies from US to Latvia expected in nearest years — Latvian minister.
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Norwegian daily calls PM’s decision to stay away from VE-Day trip to Moscow cowardly. Serbian foreign minister not going either now.
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May 7. /TASS/. Twenty five former members of Ukraine’s disbanded Berkut special police force unit from Kharkiv have asked the Crimean authorities to grant them asylum, speaker of the Crimean State Council Vladimir Konstantinov told journalists on Thursday. Many dozens of former Berkut are already living in Crimea; some are employed in the poiice there.
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DPR Azov sea fighting unit recently formed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0YpHJSS5nM
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Kiev owes 3.4 b dollars for hot water to Ukraine gas suppliers, can’t afford to heat homes to 25 C either now and in future. Up to 35% of users can no longer afford to pay their bills, which rose again on May1.
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The Administrative Court of Berlin found that the police had no right to deny entry to Russian bikers, since they have all the documents were in order. But, as it turns out, hysteria does not stop there.
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Some team to investigate social conditions is assessing and reporting from Donbass, not sure of its impartiality if contains Polish, Canadian, Moldovan representatives, but under leadership of Danish person.
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Humanitarian affairs: German government was told of the risk of flying over eastern Ukraine shortly before flight MH17 was shot down last July, but failed to pass on the alert, German media reported. Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders reported progress in inquiry into downing of Malaysian jetliner. International investigators have finished recovering human remains and wreckage from the MH17 crash site in Ukraine.
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Belgium has decided to allocate € 50.000 for the Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Canada announced humanitarian assistance funding of $15 million. Poland and Germany will send a joint humanitarian convoy to Ukraine to support the refugees from Donbas. UNDP, UNICEF and the International Labour Organization will launch a number of programs in Ukraine to help IDPs and to ensure economic and social recovery of Donbas, with the use USD 16 million allocated by the government of Japan. Canadian FM Rob Nicholson announced another $14 million in aid to the Ukraine.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: Situation report No. 37 as of 24 April 2015. Overview of population displacement (as of 24 April 2015). Council of Europe anti-torture Committee publishes report on Ukraine.(CEPI report again extract).
Thanks mods…..appreciate you putting in line breaks.Was a bit busy today……
some look like they were blue links in the original; could you try to cut those out please? they’re just headlines so don’t make much sense. OTOH good ones would be worth following and posting the usable link