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Very important article translated by JHawk posted on SouthFront written by Rostislav Ishchenko.
http://southfront.org/minsk-war-and-panic-mongers/
This answers all the trolls, the Putin-bashers, the Mark Sleboda-Gleb Bazov whiners, Strelkov and his crew of worshippers and the idiots who think they know more than Putin and Shoigu.
Read it. Absorb how Minsk 2 works. Understand that war comes last. Learn that Ukraine is lost and Russia will take what it wants and needs.
Ishchenko brings clarity to what may seem muddy.
The piece is brilliant and JHawk is a marvelous translator.
By the way, he has apparently left FortRuss but has his own blog: http://jhawkblog.blogspot.com
Go to it every day if you liked his work on FortRuss.
FortRuss is still powerful. Kristina Rus and Joaquin Flores and others are still doing great work also.
According to tihs, J.Hawk joined SouthFront
https://www.facebook.com/SouthFrontEnTwo/posts/474124186091011
It seems that way, that he’s left. And it seems to be two content streams now, I’m not sure how much will get shared across the two sites. Well, time was, there was only Saker, and Moon of Alabama sometimes, and now there are quite a few really solid sources of Russian information.
The price we pay for Russia winning the information war (and I’ve long maintained that she is winning superbly, at paradigm-shifting levels), is that we have to multiply our loyalties, and lengthen our reading hours. The price of success!
I’m going to miss Hawk at Fort Russ, he was a powerful analyst, especially combined with Kristina, Joaquin and Tom Winter, who are all great commentators also.
His approach, style, and past articles are not going to convince many. He uses lots of strawman arguments, insults his opponents and ignores their actual arguments, and has a past of dramatically different explanations for the same or similar situations. Many feel he is basically either for hire or is working for some folks in the Russian establishment that he supports. A shame as he is a talented and intelligent writer and analyst.
This doesn’t mean that the Kremlin is going to allow the total destruction of the Donbass. But there are plenty of arguments or theories that are not what official Moscow wants to hear that make plenty of sense. A simple one would be that Russia’s policies in the Ukraine and Donbass are a compromise between national-interest forces and pro-business ones. The pro-business ones are rather pro-Western and just want the problem in the Ukraine to go away. And the Kremlin is straddling two chairs. This doesn’t mean Putin is an evil sell-out, it just means that he wants to avoid a civil war in Russian elite society. He tries to rule by consensus, and that means all the pro-Western liberals go along with things. The actual liberals in Russia are not the ones mentioned in the news as degenerate has-been rock stars who like the Ukraine, but the businessmen, financial types, and people integrated into the post-Yeltsin colonial system that was set up in Russia. And there may be more of them than people like Putin, Rogozin, or Shoigu. This is not panic-mongering; it is a theory to explain Kremlin behavior. And some of us wonder if Putin himself isn’t like a liberal who has been mugged. He was a liberal, but has been “progressing” a bit towards seeing that neoliberalism won’t work for Russia.
I suspect you are mostly right there.The Tsars used to try and rule that way too (its a time-honored Russian trait I suppose),the elite was divided into “Westernizers” and Slavists”.With the Tsar siding with one or the other on different occasions.And the result was that nothing permanent ever got done until there was a crisis and it had to be done. And then the Tsar would order a Ukase.That was one of the main reasons Russia was so disunited (and still is).One day ,hopefully soon, the government will have the fortitude to clean the stables out.To eliminate the 5th column no matter the pain involved,and let Russia progress.Until then we will continue this mess of “our pardners” and “colleagues” screwing them over,with obvious traitors free to cause unrest inside the country.
Before I get attacked as anti-Putin.I think he will go down in history as one of Russia’s greatest rulers (he already is,actually).But now is not a time for half-measures.We are in an historic period for Russia.One that ranks with the “Mongol Invasion” period.With the “Time of Troubles”, the “Northern Wars”, the “Napoleonic Wars” periods.And with the “WWI” and “WWII” periods.And Russia,just as in those days needs wartime leadership.Not a peacetime leadership.So far I don’t see that happening.I see a great man struggling to appear like they are in peacetime.Hoping that by not seeing the war it won’t happen.Hopefully I’m wrong there.And Putin is the Tsar Russia so desperately needs right now.If so,the stable cleaning will start to happen very soon.If not,we’ll have to hope they find that Tsar before its too late.Russia has been very lucky that the West is so dysfunctional itself.And the Empire badly divided with its economy in trouble.If not,we would be in a horrible situation right now.
Hi Bob, we’ve highlighted our vision of the situation in the answer to Paul.
In general, if you or someone of your friends want to cover the situation this way, we are ready to post this and start that what we believe is a very important discussion for the community.
Kind regards,
SouthFront Team
HI Paul, thank you for the comment. We have an answer for you:
1) SF believes that there are could be many opinions on the topics. J.Hawk made and makes a lot of work to cover the situation, how he sees it. We’ve decided that we will glad to provide the ground for him. This doesn’t mean that other opinions will be censored. Also, a “one side” content (translations from the blogs, vision of distinct persons etc) has “Opinion” mark at our website.
2) We don’t encourage (!) an insulting communication with audience and won’t allow it at southfront.org However, we ask you don’t mix this with discussions (including translated) over the topics. Because these discussions could be very “hot” and it’s natural for them.
P.S. If someone wants to discuss the issues (in format of answers to the articles etc) and could make it with reason, we will glad to provide southfront.org as a ground for it. Just, write info@southfront.org
Kind regards,
SouthFront Team
SF,
Thanks for taking the time to give your perspective and offer.
I actually think Ischenko writes many worthwhile pieces, but he has, I feel, gotten down in the dirt in the same way many of the opponents of Kremlin policies have. More heat than light in the argument. But we all benefit from reading his perspective, as it is a widely-circulated one in Russia. I do think, though, that the Russia-oriented media in English is full of optimistic stuff about the Kremlin’s plans or how the economy is going or even how the US is about to enter a period of turmoil. Kiev, of course, is always one winter away from collapse. And I could probably count on zero fingers how many articles I have read that describe the troubles in Russia’s approach to the Ukraine that led to the current mess. Where is the constructive criticism? Very little to be found in the last year or two.
I am not totally clear on your point 2. I felt and feel that Larchmonter’s comments, as well as Ischenko’s exaggerated descriptions were on the verge of insulting, not so much my response. Personally, I am tired of the endless arguments that everything is either a brilliant Kremlin plan or a total sell-out. It almost seems intentionally designed to distract from the actual problems of dealing with the situation or us as readers understanding it.
Anyway, please keep up the good work, including anything by J. Hawk.
Thanks for the explanation of your position. SouthFront is a project from people and for people. So, we are strongly aimed to hold a strong communication with the audience and to be open for a constructive criticism. However, I hope that we look more objective than you’ve described “Russia-oriented media”)
About the “Russian plan”: If someone here (or somewhere), will write to us that:
He is ready to provide a critical vision of the Kremlin policy and able to make this a) with reason b) constantly c) wtih lack of bias. We will consider him as a contributor.
Kind regards,
SouthFront Team
Paul II,
The hysterics from the people I name is daily tripe on Twitter and elsewhere (their blogs). If I insult them by pointing out they know nothing and express hysterics daily, so much the better.
Early on, everyone looked to some of them as sources of information. They are or were “brothered” to Saker. A lot has changed over the past year. But there is one constant from their clique: Putin is weak, they know better, Russia should invade Ukraine and destroy the Ukie military and kill all the nazis and damn the aftereffects to Russia’s economy, status and stability.
Ischenko has written articles of analysis and perception while the other side produce hysterics.
They operate as a freak chorus, offering no insights, no information, no relevance.
What is amazing is they are Russians, speak Russian, live and/or travel in Russia. With credentials and talent, they should be providing insight and analysis. They fail miserably. And they falsely occupy a position of prestige that is misused.
Wailing over the deaths and destruction since Minsk 2 is ignoble. Everyone with a heart and empathy feels horrid at the daily losses. But this is a war. Minsk 2 is a brilliant device to turn down the military to a tenth of the violence in scale while gaining all advantage in the geopolitics of the region. Ischenko has the insight into this reality.
As I have pointed out a number of times here and elsewhere in comments, Joaquin Flores wrote a piece immediately after the signing in Minsk, explaining how Kiev had been trapped. It stands today as the most insightful analysis.
You have a clean slate to watch: a new Russian strategic move is unfolding. Syria.
The Kremlin is moving military, diplomacy, economics, pipeline geopolitics and anti-hegemonic “warfare” as pieces on the game board. Study what is happening, look at Lavrov and pickup on the pieces used and the effects of what flows.
Andrew Korybko has written with great perception on this a few days ago right here.
/the-shuttle-diplomacy-to-save-syria/
There are also concurrent moves in the Far East with Japan’s challenge over the Kurils and its belligerent breakout from its Constitution to use its military with the Hegemon to terrorize Russia and China as an Asian NATO.
Then there is Central Asia. Numerous Hegemon actions are underway in most of the nations. All of which have Russian counter-moves or prior “defenses” in operation.
In total, what you can perceive is Russia is an active player and does not sit back and allow the US or lesser forces play drums on its head, steal its assets, or obstruct its rise and progress.
Thus, there is real thought, planning and enactment in many spheres.
Ukraine is a fish on a hook. And Russia will reel it in over time.
If you comprehend strategic necessity, existential threat, and a bit of history, you would “get” what Ischenko writes.
Saker has offered to me many times to write on Minsk 2. I have an extensive file on it, but I deferred to Russians. It makes no sense to write when Russians understand it far deeper and with more authority.
What I do know is the junta is doomed by it. It is a lever that cracks the citadel of the US-EU-NATO-Nazi gambit. It matters not that OSCE does not report the truth or that every day, people are bombarded, die and are injured, left homeless. The goal of Russia is so much larger than the losses in Donbass. Far larger.
Let me explain that statement that Donbass’s losses don’t matter in the big scheme of things.
For a nation that is willing to sacrifice tens of millions of its manpower to defend itself from annihilation or capitulation, the losses in Donbass are like the training losses in air crashes and accidents we read about. It’s ordinary for the state of affairs of preparing for wars. You lose people and machines when you train, and Donbass is a live training ground. Many officers are learning lessons and now some will go to Central Asia, to the Far East, to Syria and Iraq with mud and blood on their boots and stiffen the corps stationed there.
War wastes lives. War wastes real assets, homes, businesses, bridges, rail, airports, power grids, vehicles, water and sanitation systems. Everything is logistical or tactical in war.
The war in Donbass is an artillery war. 90% of the losses are from artillery of one form or size or another. It is all callus, heartless, and necessary.
Russia is exerting itself under necessity. It bought time with Minsk 2. It has reorganized much of the procurement for the military in the last year. The Voentorg of Donbass has a complimentary logistical system within Russia that is producing vessels, planes, tanks, ammunition, missiles, rockets and other materiale. The production is to defend Russia and to project its influence into other zones of conflict.
War, proxy war, proto war, hybrid war is not Fast Food. You don’t just drive up and get the stuff, pay and drive away. There are consequences and counter-moves to everything. Look at Yemen. The Houthis won for a few weeks. Now they are getting pounded into dust.
In the real world, you don’t just “invade”, “defeat” the bad guys, “save” the innocent.
Nowhere is geopolitics that simple.
But often, reality is too much for the simple-minded.
Larchmonter,
I appreciate your reasoned response, and will respond within a week on a newer post. In general, I would say that the higher-level debates are over a few issues, such as whether Kremlin policy is actually set by Putin, and whether the responses of the Kremlin to the current challenges are sufficient. On the economic front, for example, it seems rather bleak to me. Like 1900 or something, though not quite as grim. Putin as Stolypin with more power as he is the Tsar, but not nearly enough so far. You probably disagree and I most definitely hope you are right. To be a power in the world requires an industrial complex for the industries that are vital in the world. The USSR failed to keep up with the West with its approach of “science cities” that were off-limits and had limited mobility with the rest of society. The Western zones like the complex around Boston worked better. And the USSR just fell too far behind. No world-class industries means no world-class power.
There’s a very good military analysis that may clarify U.S. strategy in Ukraine on Fort Russ.
“Electronic Warfare: What US Army Can Learn From Ukraine.”
(Evidently a ‘military tech Gap’ developed while the U.S. was destroying 3rd worlders, they discontinued development of means to face developed countries.)
http://fortruss.blogspot.mx/2015/08/us-instructors-are-in-ukraine-to-learn.html
@ O’Connor,
Per your link; “Our biggest problem is we have not fought in a comms-degraded environment for decades, so we don’t know how to do it,” Buckhout said. “We lack not only tactics, techniques and procedures but the training to fight in a comms[communications]-degraded environment.”
They also seem to forget the fact that they’ll have to battle it out without any air-cover or bombing campaigns [as they’ve done since WWII].
What’s most important about that item is its documentation of Outlaw Empire soldiers’s active participation in the civil war on Kiev’s side through their communications interdiction where they confess to jamming.
When I was a storm trooper, I served with an EW/SigInt company that worked more for the NSA than US Army. As a reserve unit, we always played the part of the USSR in war games, always outperforming regular army comm units, which had atrocious comm security, not much improved over Vietnam. That same deficiency exists today, as is admitted in the article.
The end cracked me up. The rest didn’t though.
BBC calling! BBC calling!
Ukraine crisis: Why a lack of parts has hamstrung Russia’s military
“Mr Rogozin said Russia would strive to integrate engine production for the navy and air force, to reduce costs and move away from reliance on Ukrainian and Western equipment.
But a previous Russian attempt to reduce the military’s reliance on Ukrainian equipment was only partly successful, Russian military expert Alexander Golts told the BBC.
“We can’t take Mr Rogozin’s statements at face value. We can believe them only when we see the first Russian gas turbines [for the military],” he said”
From reading this you’d think that Russia’s military was paralysed. Had they no clue that Western Ukraine had no need of Russia as a customer of superior Ukrainian military hardware? The USA and Europe would more than fill that niche -oh, wait…
I cannot speak for deputy editor-in-chief Alexander Golt’s ability as a ‘military expert’ but I will note that according to Wiki, and along with Boris Nemtsov, he was politically part of Garry Gasparov’s ‘2008 Free Choice Committee’ opposing Putin. Those last two words in the previous sentence are all the BBC needs.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33822821
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_2008
Since all those companies are bankrupt and their employee’s are jobless in Ukraine.I’d think it wouldn’t be that hard to entice many of them to work on the same projects a few miles away in Russia. Infact ,I believe I’ve heard Rogozin say that was happening already.It may take a bit of hard work to get it all going.But if the USSR could industrialize the entire country during the disastrous 1930’s,there is no acceptable excuse that today’s Russia can’t build a few plants in a much shorter period.
Just when I think Russia is on top of the military situation for its survival,I see things like this.Just how stupid and careless can some people get.In Stalin’s day that bunch would be digging salt in Siberia for that kind of “wrecking” :
‘Top secret files shared via public emails’: Russian Defense Ministry in hacking scandal’
A hacking group has sent an open letter to the head of military counterintelligence at the Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) to complain about Defense Ministry staff allegedly sidestepping the corporate email system to share top secret information, using public services instead.
The members of the Shaltay Boltay hacking group claim that they have accessed emails and mobile devices belonging to Ksenia Bolshakova, an assistant to Roman Filimonov, who is a former head of the construction department at the Defense Ministry.
“After careful examination of the array, it is with great regret that we found out about the absolute incompetence of staffers at some of the departments of the Defense Ministry when it comes to information security; to be more specific, we’re dealing with criminal negligence,” a letter addressed to FSB Colonel-General Aleksandr Bezverkhny said.
According to the hackers, the ministry’s employees were sending unencrypted official documents, containing sensitive data about Russia’s defense capabilities, through free email services such as Yandex, Mail.ru and Gmail, RBC reported. The emails span a period between 2011 and 2015.
The unsecured e-mail channels were used to “transmit reports and information on the issues discussed at the meetings with the Minister of Defense and his deputies,” the hackers said. Emails also allegedly included information on the units hosting the Iskander ballistic missile systems and the positioning of Russia’s 4th gen nuclear submarines.
Filimonov’s staff also relied on Apple devices, the letter claimed, adding that they found passwords to Defense Ministry mail servers among the correspondence.
“If this information has been available to us, it’s likely that it could have been made available to a number of intelligence services of some interested countries as the gross negligence by the employees of the Defense Ministry construction department provided ample opportunity to do that in 2012-2014,” the Shaltay Boltay group noted.
The hackers have put the stolen Defense Ministry data on sale, but said that military counterintelligence can buy the data back with a 50 percent discount.
Russian presidential press-secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has condemned the negligence of Defense Ministry staff regarding their attitudes towards information security.
“Using free email services for business purposes in the current environment isn’t such a good solution,” Peskov said, adding that it is “beyond madness and absolutely unacceptable” when such insecure channels are employed to transmit secret data.
The security services will verify the validity of the information on the positioning of Iskander systems and nuclear subs provided by the hackers, the press-secretary added.
http://www.rt.com/news/311898-defense-ministry-hackers-free-email/
In a moment like this, it WAS NOT negligence, but TREASON.