There is no doubt in my mind that the Empire is pushing el-Baradei as a successor to Mubarak (Hillary is already speaking about an ‘orderly transition’). This does not at all mean that the Empire created the uprising in Egypt, or even that the Empire had el-Baradei already lined up ready to step in. Nor does this mean that this is not the case. Frankly, it is at this point too early to make affirmative statements about this. Questions are appropriate, but answers should not be assumed.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s apparent acceptance of el-Baradei as de-facto leader of the opposition is a dangerous gambit, but it might be a smart tactical move for at least two reasons:
a) puppets sometimes defy their masters and end up doing unpredictable things, including turning against them (think Hamas here).
b) some puppets are weaker than others and it is by no means sure that an el-Baradei regime would be able to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood as well as Mubarak did; it is possible that the MB hopes to be accepted into a democratic process and, through that, achieve something similar to what Hezbollah did in Lebanon: a peaceful, democratic and bloodless takeover of the reigns of power.
So while the MB’s acceptance of el-Baradei as the representative of the entire opposition is dangerous, it might be a very smart move too.
A lot of commentators are comparing the events in Egypt with the failed Gucci Revolution in Iran. I think that they are totally mistaken.
In Iran the Guccis rejected the results of an election which they had the opportunity to compete in, whereas in Egypt the MB did not participate in elections*. In Iran the Gucci movement was from day one with a clear leader (Mousavi), a clear political ideology (anti-Islamic) and easily identifiable patrons (Rafsanjani & Co.). This is clearly not the case in Egypt where the movement might well end up being co-opted, but where its initiation is was clearly chaotic and which, at least in its initial stages, had neither leader nor a single political platform (“down with Mubarak” does not qualify). Lastly, if the Gucci movement in Iran had had the support of even a plurality of people it would have represented a real threat to the regime which would have been forced to use the Pasdaran to quell it. That never happened. The fact that the Pasdars never intervened clearly shows that at no moment did the Gucci revolution really threaten the Islamic Republic. The combination of simple riot police and Basij volunteers rather easily controlled the situation. Again, compare that with what is going on in Egypt and you will see that the differences could hardly be greater.
Your thoughts?
On a personal note, I am feeling better, but very weak. Please forgive my discombobulated and chaotic posts, lack of proper replies, and delays in posting your comments.
Thanks for everything!
The Saker
*Note: I don’t believe for one second that the election in Iran was ‘stolen’. In fact, all the detailed info which came out of Iran shows that the observed irregularities could never have resulted in the highly lopsided result. I want to clarify that for the record. I also want to note that whether the election was stolen or not is totally irrelevant to my point which stands even if the election had been somehow – very mysteriously – ‘stolen’.
Totally uncallable, the whole thing is at this point, at least for me. The fact that the Egyptian ambassador has left Israel is a good sign though. I have never even been to Egypt, now I’d like to go though…
(Whereas the Saker’s next family destination is of course Hezbollah World.)
@Guthman:The Saker’s next family destination is of course Hezbollah World
God willing, one day it will be, insha’Allah! ;-) Sounds like *exactly* the kind of place I would take my children to to show them yet another example that resistance is NOT futile!
Hmm not sure I agree fully Saker, El-Baradei might be a US pawn before when in the position of IAEA even then he showed signs of defying them. However in this situation it is not the defiance that is the issue rather why him? Quite simply he is a man using all his contacts at the right time to ensure things go according to plan. For example, lets assume for a moment he had not returned to Egypt and this all ensured wtih Mobarak falling and a new Government being installed. The first question would be who is the opposition figure that people will turn to? There is none, MB as much as they are active have not groomed a figure that can unite all the other factions. El-Baradei has that capability, while he is seen as the outsider at the sametime he possess the ability to bring people towards him making himself the opposition figure. Remember without leadership a vaccum will ensure which is more dangerous since it could end up with a military coup which is not what the Egyptians want or need.
Another thing to note about MB is this, as soon as these protests started MB has kept a close eye on the situation but did not unveil their plans until thursday and today. Firstly calling for protests on friday after prayers and then today releasing a statement supporting el-Baradei. Their action or input in these days will be and should be minimal, as tactically this is what is seen as the most dangerous thing to the US and Israel as well as others atm. William Hague when pressed today stated A MB government is not what we seek in Egypt. And it is best there is none since it would actually lead to another Iraq/Afghanistan style situation as US would not tolerate a government run by a party that is Islamic and which could lead to reprecussions for Israel. Not just that but think in terms of strategic changes that could happen if MB come into power. Suez Canal, the Israel-Egypt treaty etc all of these will lead to a position where US would not want and will take decisive action.
Lastly, it is worth also mentioning here something maybe not so much from your prespective but from an Islamic prespective we have something interesting from the Quran, there is a verse which says ‘[3:54] And they planned and Allah (also) planned, and Allah is the best of planners.’
US planned to remove Hamas, they became the elected choice, Israel tried to remove them and Hizbullah both have become stronger in the process. MB has been banned yet they are now coming back on scene stronger and it is those who plotted against them are now the most vunerable. The end is in sight!
@altigerrr and Saker: I say enjoy the ride and don’t ruin the fun of it by worrying too much. The thing to keep in mind is that the long period of immutably venal dictatorships in Egypt, Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Tunisia plus the Saudi Mordor of Oil represents such an unbelievable stroke of luck for the Israelis and the US, that whatever evolves now, it’s bound to be much much better. I too have become paranoid over the years and keep having to pinch myself, so I remember: this was NOT NORMAL. This was an absolute freak of a strategic configuration.
First, hope you feel better soon. Salamtac!
Second, I agree with altigerrr. The MB knows it does not have anywhere near uniform support within Egypt and will be despised abroad. Both Hizbullah and , I think, the MB learned the lesson of Gaza. Ruling a country (or even a prison camp) while being openly Islamic and openly opposed to Israel will only bring massive sanctions on your head. Egypt simply does not have the economic wherewithal of Iran. The kind of sanctions and psyops and covert ops that Iran successfully endures would collapse Egypt. I think the MB understands this.
That’s exactly where Elbaradai comes in. I do not trust him. Probably the MB does not trust him, but he is the perfect face for the revolution. AND! he can do the one single most important thing and get away with it: open the Rafah crossing. If the MB did that, it would lead to open and massive hostility from the west. OTOH, if El Baradai does it. It would lead to massive anger and grumbling.
On a positive note, El Baradai has denounced the Gaza siege, and spoke positively about the resistance. The Israelis and the Americans seemed to really hate hin when he was IAEA chief (a positive sign IMHO)
That said, the MB was not the majority of the protesters by any means. And they largely avoided openly Islamic slogans and signs. There will be and MUST be representation for trade unions, guilds and the poorest of the poor in the next government. The MB could become the most powerful single player in a coaltion government. But they will not own the whole government.
Also, I have to say that this is not over. Mubarak is still there. Almost certainly, he is looking for an army unit ready to commit a massacre for him. I’d like to believe he will not find one, but it is not impossible.
@altigerrr, Guthman and Lysander: first, thank you for your comments; second, yes – I am rather paranoid and cynical and suspicious and generally pessimistic. This is the result of a) my training b) my career and c) my personality. But I assure you that I am also hopeful or, when I am not, at least I try. I guess my gut feeling that Egypt is such an IMMENSELY IMPORTANT country that fully expect the Empire to fight for it with everything, and I do mean *everything*, it has. I am also struck by the fact that not only does the opposition in Egypt not have a clearly formulated program beyond “Down with Mubarak”, but that in street interviews all I hear is “income, unemployment, prices and freedom”; sometimes, they also mention dignity – all of which I fully support. But what I am not hearing is single person speaking about Palestine, Gaza, collaboration with Israel, being sold out to the US Empire and all the other issues which while admittedly are less down to earth are no less important. So I don’t trust the political maturity of this opposition and I ask myself some rather scary “what if” questions. Like this one:
What if the Egyptian opposition is a mix of “I want an iPod too!!” kind of opposition like we saw in the Gucci Revolution in Iran, and the type of Islamic opposition we see in Hamas – one with possibly plenty of sincere piety, but also one with not one ounce of strategic thinking? Just imagine how easy it will be for the Empire to either co-opt or de-fang such an opposition?!
Please do understand me correctly: I wish the Egyptian opposition all the best from the very bottom of my heart. I have always hated Mubarak with a hate that I don’t even feel for Abbas (the latter, at least, has the excuse of having succeeded a leader Israel murdered). But I wonder how much real, effective, change this movement can bring to those I care about most: the Palestinians.
It is quite true that ‘And they planned and Allah (also) planned, and Allah is the best of planners’ (Christians believe that too, my dear Altigerrr!) but I have yet to see clear signs that the end is indeed in sight!
God willing, it will be soon!
Sorry for the short reply.
The Saker
Dear Saker,
You’re absolutely right in your Analysis…and the comments above are worthy too precisely because the situation is still very fluid…
The Army is KEY…and the Empire is doing all it can to subjugate/use the Army Brass in its favor, one way or another….
The street seems to be maintaining the momentum….absence real ARMY Violence a la Tienanmen…
I have CLEARLY seen on BBC/Arabic channel police trucks with many Stars of DAVID All over them…and a few other signs here or there…but it’s clearly not the main Topic du Jour…but I am sure that it’s lurking in the Background…you can trust the Egyptian people on that front…
The ATTITUDE of Israelis and Jews in General is let’s KEEP MUM and not saying anything…until things clear out…despite few announcements here or there by Netanyahoo and others…
The USA seems to be flailing about, because the first day GIBBS said something which was contradicted the next day by Hillary…but I am sure that Pentagon is in Charge with CIA/DIA in the fore front…
Always watch for the Friday Prayers for PEAK events to happen…The MB is definitely going to be the backbone of the future Egyptian system of Government…one way or another with Army’s blessing in disguise…and RAFAH, North SINAI a crucial part of big game…
Cheers,
Joe