By Pepe Escobar – posted with permission
Ukraine was supposed to prevent Russia from deepening energy ties with Germany; it didn’t work out that way
Once upon a time in Pipelineistan, tales of woe were the norm. Shattered dreams littered the chessboard – from IPI vs. TAPI in the AfPak realm to the neck-twisting Nabucco opera in Europe.
In sharp contrast, whenever China entered the picture, successful completion prevailed. Beijing financed a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang, finished in 2009, and will profit from two spectacular Power of Siberia deals with Russia.
And then there’s Ukraine. Maidan was a project of the Barack Obama administration, featuring a sterling cast led by POTUS, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John McCain and last but not least, prime Kiev cookie distributor Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland.
Ukraine was also supposed to prevent Russia from deepening energy ties with Germany, as well as other European destinations.
Well, it did not exactly play like that. Nord Stream was already operational. South Stream was Gazprom’s project to southeast Europe. Relentless pressure by the Obama administration derailed it. Yet that only worked to enable a resurrection: the already completed TurkStream, with gas starting to flow in January 2020.
The battlefield then changed to Nord Stream 2. This time relentless Donald Trump administration pressure did not derail it. On the contrary: it will be completed by the end of 2020.
Richard Grennel, the US ambassador to Germany, branded a “superstar” by President Trump, was furious. True to script, he threatened Nordstream 2 partners – ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall – with “new sanctions.”
Worse: he stressed that Germany “must stop feeding the beast at a time when it does not pay enough to NATO.”
“Feeding the beast” is not exactly subtle code for energy trade with Russia.
Peter Altmaier, German minister of economic affairs and energy, was not impressed. Berlin does not recognize any legality in extra-territorial sanctions.
Grennel, on top of it, is not exactly popular in Berlin. Diplomats popped the champagne when they knew he was going back home to become the head of US national intelligence.
Trump administration sanctions delayed Nordstream 2 for around one year, at best. What really matters is that in this interval Kiev had to sign a gas transit deal with Gazprom. What no one is talking about is that by 2025 no Russian gas will be transiting across Ukraine towards Europe.
So the whole Maidan project was in fact useless.
It’s a running joke in Brussels that the EU never had and will never have a unified energy policy towards Russia. The EU came up with a gas directive to force the ownership of Nord Stream 2 to be separated from the gas flowing through the pipeline. German courts applied their own “nein.”
Nord Stream 2 is a serious matter of national energy security for Germany. And that is enough to trump whatever Brussels may concoct.
And don’t forget Siberia
The moral of this fable is that now two key Pipelineistan nodes – Turk Stream and Nord Stream 2 – are established as umbilical steel cords linking Russia with two NATO allies.
And true to proverbial win-win scripts, now it’s also time for China to look into solidifying its European relations.
Last week, German chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese premier Li Keqiang had a video conference to discuss Covid-19 and China-EU economic policy.
That was a day after Merkel and President Xi had spoken, when they agreed that the China-EU summit in Leipzig on September 14 would have to be postponed.
This summit should be the climax of the German presidency of the EU, which starts on July 1. That’s when Germany would be able to present a unified policy towards China, uniting in theory the 27 EU members and not only the 17+1 from Central Europe and the Balkans – including 11 EU members – that already have a privileged relationship with Beijing and are on board for the Belt and Road Initiative.
In contrast with the Trump administration, Merkel does privilege a clear, comprehensive trade partnership with China – way beyond a mere photo op summit. Berlin is way more geoeconomically sophisticated than the vague “engagement and exigence” Paris approach.
Merkel as well as Xi are fully aware of the imminent fragmentation of the world economy post-Lockdown. Yet as much as Beijing is ready to abandon the global circulation strategy from which it has handsomely profited for the past two decades, the emphasis is also on refining very close trade relations with Europe.
Ray McGovern has concisely detailed the current state of US-Russia relations. The heart of the whole matter, from Moscow’s point of view, was summarized by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, an extremely able diplomat:
“We don’t believe the US in its current shape is a counterpart that is reliable, so we have no confidence, no trust whatsoever. So our own calculations and conclusions are less related to what America is doing …. We cherish our close and friendly relations with China. We do regard this as a comprehensive strategic partnership in different areas, and we intend to develop it further.”
It’s all here. Russia-China “comprehensive strategic partnership” steadily advancing. Including “Power of Siberia” Pipelineistan. Plus Pipelineistan linking two key NATO allies. Sanctions? What sanctions?
A State of the Pipelines message from Pepe depicting the failing travails of the US State Dept. and Treasury, whose Carrot and Stick diplomacy has Two Sticks and No Carrot. (The US needs two sticks, one to bash at Russia while the other to bash at its “allies”.)
Germany knows it is a target of subordination as an economic giant in Europe. The competitor is not European. The competitor is the US which is trying to hold down Germany’s growth and prosperity because it cannot match Germany product for product.
The issue of sanctions over gas is to cripple Russia and any other nation that can serve developed markets. The US simply cannot match Russia for energy exports and industrialized nations for manufacturing.
The fable now begins Once Upon A Time America Was First.
Of course, sanctions would have less effect if the Chinese CIPS and Russian SPFS were fully online and internationally functional. This project seems to have been ongoing for a long time but can’t be far off completion. Leave the USD system and trade outside of their influence and everyone will be better off (except Wall St). It’ll be a good day when that happens and with the Fed printing trillions, it’s only a matter of time before the USD reaches it’s intrimsic value.
The trick, of course, is getting there with as few as possible shots being fired. Military technology would appear to deter the madmen of Washington and the Pentagon at the current time. Praise to Russia and China for not falling for the huge list of provocations along the way.
this is all that remains and the one choice that can not be made.
all hat and no cattle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y
I know Trump and Pelosi understand that to be competitive against imports means the incomes of US workers, must fall to the levels of 3rd world countries. What is wrong with that? We can easily convince the population that the CIA is telling the truth. Otherwise …. Tasmania.
‘Don’t mind the expensive cigar smoke Joe have another shot of malt whisky’,said Donald. Yes’, replied Joe. ‘We are the old-money boys. Ha, ha what of the stupidity of our naive followers’, replied Donald, ‘but who can blame them? Here’s to Chuck, Nancy and Wall Street.’
Sorry John, but the Tasmanian reference went straight over my head. Would you care to explain to this stupid Tassie farmer, please
Originally a penal colony. I’m genuinely surprised the US hasn’t implemented that same idea yet.
Germany will not be free until all american and other troops are ejected from her soil.
Part of the German industrial plan was and is to not spend a lot of money on Defense. The Plan was Germany would get defense from the NATO Alliance.
That plan enabled Germany to be #1 in the EU. The one threat, the USSR and then Russia, was countered by US presence, massive number of US bases, a nuclear shield, and hundreds of thousands of allies from NATO.
Germany embraced geopolitical vassalage in exchange for a very strong economy.
Germany’s strength and weakness is they follow the plan, even when its the wrong plan. Russia is not a threat to Germany unless Russia is herself threatened, and Germany is no threat to Russia. The problem is the US. Germany’s future depends more on Russia than the US and NATO. Without reliable and cheap energy they are kaput.
The Germans who provoked war and then we’re so called defeated were just relocated to the halls of power and industry in the us and Russia. They were rewarded for their service to the globalists. Of whom everyone I see on this platform is a devout card carrying member. It’s ok. We will in America defend our country. The actions of the many previous administration’s do not reflect the views and or opinions of the vast majority of our citizens. Apologies for being asleep so long. Two wrongs do not make a right. I support our current president in his effort to return our country to the rule of law. We will win. We fight for freedom. We fight for justice. The perpetrators of the previous madness, our enemies from within, will not be allowed to continue unimpeded. Do not underestimate us. Do not give comfort to our enemies. We fight for freedom and justice for all! #maga #wwgowga
I will have a double of what ever yoelyonan is drinking.
America is a county hijacked by a bunch of zionist nazis and two passports idiots.
Bar keep!! Make that a triple!!
I believe he’s smoking something as well…
Patrick
> I support our current president in his effort to return our country to the rule of law.
Such sentences are dangerous; without warning, if read while drinking a cup of coffee for example, an accident can happen due to the sudden laughter.
Without a strong vibrant middle class there can be no rule of law,the vast majority of Americans want decent good paying jobs,they don’t want to work two or three jobs to put a roof over their heads or put the cheapest food on their plates.Now Trumps a joke he’s part of the 1% and that’s where he’s going to stay taking care of himself and the rest of the 1%. Who are you going to defend the country from when they are already inside the walls creating poverty and homeless camps,going out for a photo op. while the cities are burning perhaps we should rename him Nero for the country is going down as he pumps trillions into the financial system, so the 1% don’t loose any of their wealth instead of rebuilding our rotting infrastructure and creating good paying jobs.!!!
Actually, bluedogg……the word is that Trump now enjoys 40% of the black voter support in this country.
And The Plan is to take a few hundred billion of that Fed Helicopter money and rebuild those downtown areas burned under the watchful eyes of Democrat governors and mayors in your Blue States, bluedogg.
Then how much of that black vote do you imagine he might get…..if the plans and funding and at least the demolition is underway before November??
Oh and you and Pavlo and pdb and Tonymike have not been exactly welcoming of our new guest, yoelyonan.
Just in case he wasn’t driven away forever (which is what the globalist elites and y’all would evidently like) I have a message for him, to make up for your rudeness to our new visitor:
/moveable-feast-cafe-2020-06-07/#comment-816200
Hope to see y’all over in the Café Cantina!
And Don’t Cry For Me, Argentina!
Nor for Marina……
(Don’t worry …..you’ll get the reference before that Café ends….and another begins.)
Cheers!
Oh come now don’t be playing the blame game only trolls do that,like Huey Long stated long ago, don’t blame me don’t blame thee blame the fellow behind the tree.They are all to blame so don’t just pick out the ones you wish to blame,it reminds me of a poll back back some time ago which was what do you think of congress,the most replies were that congress was a lieing thieving group,the next question was what do you think of your congressman.the answer was that he was as white as the driven snow, it was all the fault of the rest,now Trump has done nothing except to take care of the 1% first it was the huge tax cut for them,while the jobs were flowing out of the country because it was all China’s fault at least that gave Russia a rest,Next came the $6.5 trillion dollars in the financial system to make sure the wealthy didn’t loose a nickle, in fact during the virus their wealth increased some 16.1 % which ran into the billions..Don’t believe in the polls for that was proven under Reagan that they are cooked to put forth whatever they wish to make you believe, it was simply propaganda.Change never comes in a peaceful manner you should know that,you can’t make an omelet without cracking a few eggs, peaceful demonstration never achieve anything been there done it!!!!
You lost pal? in case you were wondering, this ain’t Fox news here.
Nothing unites countries more quickly and resolutely than a common enemy.
Pompeo told me that the world is never tired of our bullying, killing and racketeering and our trillionaire types infesting Wall Street, the Silicon Valley and the military-industrial-intelligence complex are actually heroes. Whether they choose me or Biden is not important. Yikes – I don’t really mean that!
at this point it looks as though our common enemy is our government, whose members we elected
“Sergei Ryabkov, an extremely able diplomat:
”
Sergei Ryabkov really voices what is world public opinion (with a few exceptions in Eastern Europe) in the fist sentence quoted. The good news here is that I think the problem has a solution which can be kept within US borders entirely. To wit, replace the Pindo government — at every level — as peaefully as possible but absolutely not without applying as much force as is needed to get the job done. Bring in Latin Americans and Russians to rule over the Exceotional and Indispensable garbage. If Pindo lives are to be spared at all, it must be under a civiizing occupational power.
Sadly, that appears to be our only way out.