By Dmitry Orlov and posted with the author’s permission
Ever since Putin announced his demands for security guarantees from the US and NATO (in brief, stop NATO’s eastward expansion, have NATO retreat to its positions of 1997 and remove offensive weapons from Russia’s immediate vicinity) we have been subjected to a barrage of irrelevancies from Western press:
• Are these security guarantees an ultimatum or a negotiating tool?
• Will the US and NATO agree to them or reject them?
• Will Putin invade the Ukraine or will he be stopped in his tracks through the judicious and timely use of frowning, head-shaking, finger-wagging and tisk-tisking by sundry and assorted Western luminaries?
• If Putin does invade the Ukraine, does this mean that World War III is finally upon us and we shall all surely die?
I hope that I am not alone in being sick and tired of this pathetic, tiresome attempt to throw up a smokescreen and hide the inevitable reality of what is about to unfold. In case it isn’t completely clear to you yet, I would like to spell it all out. I am normally more cautious when making specific predictions, but in this case our immediate future has been carefully plotted out for us by Russia and China, with the US and its assorted puppets reduced to the status of non-playable characters in a video game who can only do one thing: hide behind a dense smokescreen of risible lies.
First, Russian security guarantee demands are not ultimatums. An ultimatum is an “or else” sort of thing, offering a choice between compliance and consequences, whereas in this case both the noncompliance and the consequences will follow automatically. The West and NATO are, for well understood internal political reasons, unable to sign these guarantees; therefore, the consequences will unfold in due course.
Russia has demanded that both the US and NATO put their refusal to agree to the security guarantees in writing; these pieces of paper will be important moving forward. To understand why, we need to take on board the fact that everything within these security guarantees has already been agreed to by the West; namely, the “not an inch to the east” guarantee given to the Russians by the US 30 years ago and the collective security principle agreed to by all members of the OSCE. By signing a document in which they declare their refusal to abide by what they previously agreed to, the US and NATO would essentially declare themselves to be apostates from international law and order. This, in turn, would imply that their own security needs can be disregarded and that instead they deserve to be humiliated and punished.
Further, by putting their refusal in writing, the US and NATO would declare the collective security principle itself—specifically with respect to the US and NATO—to be null and void, meaning that if, for instance, the Bahamas, a sovereign nation since July 10, 1973, decides to reinforce its sovereignty by hosting a Russian missile battery pointed across the Gulf Stream at Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, the US would have no say in the matter, and if the US did try to speak up, they’d get beat up with this very piece of paper they signed. “Do you feel threatened now?” the Russians would ask; “Well, maybe you should have thought of that when you threatened us by putting your missiles in Poland and Romania.”
The initial stated purpose of the two installations of Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania was to shoot down Iranian missiles, which didn’t exist then, don’t exist now, and never would have taken a giant detour and fly over Poland or Romania in any case. Although the stated purpose of these systems was for missile defense, their launch platforms can also be used to launch offensive strategic weapons: Tomahawk cruise missiles with nuclear payloads. These Tomahawks are obsolete and the Russians know how to shoot them down extremely well (as they demonstrated in Syria) but this is still very annoying, plus seeding the Russian countryside with pulverized American plutonium would not be good for anyone’s health.
Thus, we should expect bad things to happen to these installations, but we should expect to remain rather ill-informed about the details. While the non-negotiations over the Russian security guarantee demands will be as public as possible (in spite of Western plaintive cries asking that they be held in private) the “technical-military means” which Russia will use to deal with Western noncompliance will not be widely publicized. The Romanian installation might become inoperative due to a newly discovered small volcano nearby; the Polish one might succumb of a freak swamp gas explosion.
A further series of unfortunate accidents may cause the US and NATO to become shy and reticent about encroaching on Russia’s borders. NATO troops stationed in the Baltics, a stone’s throw from St. Petersburg, which is Russia’s second-largest city, might complain of repeatedly hearing the word “Thud!” clearly and loudly annunciated, causing them all to be diagnosed with schizophrenia and evacuated. A US spy plane might experience a slight GPS malfunction causing it to blunder into Russian airspace, get shot down, and have its catapulted pilot sentenced to many years of teaching English to kindergarteners in Syktyvkar or Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. US Navy and NATO vessels, already prone to collisions with each other, underwater mountains and barges, might suffer an unusually large number of such mishaps in proximity to the Russian coastline, causing them to shy away from it. A large number of such events, most out of them transpiring out of sight of the public, news of them suppressed in Western press and social media, would force the mighty US military to confront an uncomfortable existential question: “Are the Russians still afraid of us, or are we just jerking each other off here?” Their response will be to go into denial and to jerk each other off harder and faster than ever before.
But if they are indeed just jerking each other off, then what about their policy of containment? What’s to contain Russia and keep it from recreating USSR 2.0?—other than the fact that the Russians aren’t stupid, learned their lesson the first time around, and Mother Russia will no longer allow a bunch of useless non-Russian ingrates to suckle at her ample bosom. “But when is Russia going to invade the Ukraine?” inquiring minds demand to know, especially those who have been paying attention to Western news sources claiming that Russia has amassed 100090 troops on the Ukrainian border (it hasn’t).
The latest theory is that what is preventing Russia from invading is the warm weather. Apparently, it has been unusually warm since 2014, which is why Russian troops haven’t rolled across the Ukrainian border yet. What have they been waiting for? The next ice age that’s due any millennium now? Instead, Russia just got the bits of the Ukraine it wanted—Crimea, the Donbass and a couple of millions of highly trained Russian-speaking professionals—all without staging an invasion, and is now waiting for the rest of the Ukraine to degenerate into its end state as an ethnic theme park and nature preserve. The only thing that’s not going well with this plan is that the Ukraine needs to be demilitarized, as required by Russia’s recent security guarantee demands.
But what if Russia’s security guarantees aren’t met and US/NATO continue stuffing the Ukraine full of weapons, sending in trainers and establishing bases? Well, then, those will need to be destroyed. This can be done by launching some rockets from small ships sailing around in the Caspian Sea, as was done to destroy ISIS bases in Syria; no ground force invasion needed. It won’t take much to prompt US/NATO to evacuate the Ukraine in a panic, seeing as they have already worked out plans for doing so and have announced that they won’t fight to defend it.
If that’s what unfolds, what do you think will happen next? Will the US start a nuclear war over the Ukraine? Umm… how about “NO!!!” Will the US impose “sanctions from hell”? Perhaps, but you have to understand that at this point in time the US and other Western economies can be accurately caricatured as a crystal vase full of excrement parked on the very edge of a high shelf over a hard marble floor. The hope is that nobody is going to sneeze because the sound pressure might cause it to go over the edge. Sanctions from hell do sound like they could cause a bit of a sneeze. Needless to say, the US will continue to talk about sanctions from hell and maybe even pass some legislation so titled, and claim to have sent “a strong message,” but to no effect.
Will Russia act immediately upon acceptance in writing the West’s refusal to provide it with the requested security guarantees? No, there is bound to be a delay. You see, February 4th is barely two weeks away, and that’s just not enough time to start and finish a military action. What’s on February 4th? Why, the opening ceremony at the Beijing Olympics, of course, at which Putin will be the guest of honor while US dignitaries weren’t even invited.
At the Olympics Putin and Xi will be signing a raft of major agreements, one of which may transform the already very strong relationship between China and Russia into an actual military alliance. The tripartite world order announced by Gen. Milley, in which the US, Russia and China figure as equals, will have lasted all of three months. With Russia and China acting as a unit, the SCO, which by now includes almost all of Eurasia, becomes more than just a geopolitical pole. In comparison, the US and the 29 dwarves of NATO do not quite add up to a geopolitical pole and the world once again becomes unipolar but with the polarity flipped.
And so we should not expect any military action to take place between February 4th and February 20th. Should any military mischief occur during the Olympics, which is traditionally a time of peace in the world, it is sure to be a Western provocation, since the Olympics are a traditional time of Western provocations (Georgia during the Beijing Olympics in 2008; the Ukraine during the Russian Olympics in Sochi in 2014). We can be sure that everyone is very much prepared for this provocation and that it will be dealt with very harshly.
The worst kind of provocation would be if NATO advisers actually succeed in goading the hapless and demoralized Ukrainian troops into invading the Donbass. If that happens, there will be two steps to that operation. The first will involve confusing the Ukrainians into walking into a trap. The second will be to threaten to destroy them using Russian long-range artillery from across the Russian border. When that happened previously, the Ukrainian government in Kiev was forced to sign the Minsk agreements that required the Ukrainian military to pull back and the Kiev government to grant autonomy to the Donbass by amending the Ukraine’s constitution.
But since the government in Kiev has shown no intention of fulfilling the terms of these agreements during the intervening years and instead has done its utmost to sabotage them, there is no reason to expect a new round of Minsk agreements to be signed. Instead, it will be the end of the road for Ukrainian statehood. Putin has promised exactly that. NATO advisers are likely to be frustrated in their efforts to cause the Ukrainians to attack: it is preferable for them to sit there being poked and prodded by their NATO handlers and nagged by US/EU officials and spies than to have their best and brightest obliterated by Russian artillery or to face a final round of national humiliation.
After February 20th, however, we should expect some new and interesting domestic distraction. It could have to do with Western financial house of cards/pyramid scheme finally pancaking, or it could be a fun new virus, or natural gas running out and causing a huge humanitarian emergency. Or it could be a combination of these: the virus can be blamed on China, the gas emergency on Russia, and the financial collapse on both. While everyone is distracted, an aircraft carrier or two might go missing, the Aegis Ashore installation in Poland might get totaled by freak swamp gas explosion and so on and so forth. But then nobody would take notice.
There will still be the major existential question nagging the US military/industrial complex: “Are Russia and China still afraid of us or are we just jerking each other off?” I think I know what answer Russia and China would offer: “Don’t worry about us. Just go on jerking each other off.”
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Great analysis Mr.Orlov …you know very well those pesky US neocon/neolib whor*s. ..btw like your a humour.I hope Mr.Saker let you more often to visit Saker’s family readers.
Dimitry – yes, the western economies are a precariously placed crystal vase.
Saker and his guest authors is my essential daily reading.
As is this twitter:@javierblas.
Today he writes:
Brent, the physical benchmark for a large chunk of the world’s oil, was assessed on Wednesday above $90 a barrel for the first time since October 2014, according to price reporting agencies.
Why does it matter.?
Post Crimea, oil price was artificially suppressed to send Russia broke…because it was “an oil pump masquerading as a country”.
Of course, Russia prevailed in OPEC+ negotiations.
Now the oil price is on the rise.
Biden used the strategic petroleum reserve to suppress US pump prices for Thanksgiving. That party trick option no longer available.
#OOTT (oil twitter traders) are certain of barrel prices exceeding $120-$150. Some are making cases for $200.
Oil is black gold. And Russia has plenty of it, and the yellow variety also.
And now she has military supremacy also.
Interesting times.
We should all be doing our level best to wake these people up, ignorance is one thing, greed, denial, avarice, hypocrisy, and gluttony are not a recipe for success.
Both Russia and China should stand firm on protecting their sovereignty and call the bluff of the fast sinking hegemon otherwise it will continue to bedevil and destroy everything we, the people of the world love and cherish: Above all genuine Freedom, not the kind of bullshitted one of the US and its Lapdogs suckers.
Excellent , far – reaching, panoramic view of the very serious geo-political moment with historical dimension.
Someone, somewhere, mentioned that NATO should disappear and the European nations should form their own defensive alliance, with Russia included.
This is a simple concept, free from the dark influences of the US.
Too easy, or too impossible?
At this point, it seems more like Science Fiction rather than a peek into the future… But, that been said, i would think that the bedrock strata of the EU needs to be scraped away first to a much deeper layer, until all the corrupting influences (and sewage) of the current “Masters of the Universe” are sanitized. I think it is completely possible that at some point in the future the completely (by then) paradigm-shifted EU would be a welcome thing, but at that point all other countries on Earth (with the most likely exceptions of the Anglo countries, Israel, and of course, the 3B+P) would also be working in unison. If this were ever to happen (a big IF), it would take many, many generations to get to a state of something akin to fraternal peace and cooperation.
In John Lennon’s song Free Da People Now, he says “So while you’re jerking off each other, you better bear this in mind: your time is up, you better know it. Free the people now. Do It, Do It, Do It Now.
Let’s see tomorrow but my bet is mr. blinken will show up like the student that did not do the homework having more than enough time to do it. Of course nothing written.
Mr. Lavrov, a very wise serious and correct person will not let the boy escape unpunished, but ashamed, something that is meaningless to this arms sellsman.
And we will finally have the chance to witness what mother Russia has in his hand.. I think a hand of five aces. I am sure.
China Syria and Iran will become part of this awesome organisation CSTO … nato is do to disappear in the near future!
Changes in the world scenario is coming soon thanks to The best President this world has ever seen! Mr. Vladimirovich, Vladimir!
Long live Vladimir Putin!
Chill dude. The Russians are calling the Americans. Sure, the Americans have a King and a Queen, but the Russians have an Ace and a Queen.
My guess is the bets are going to go up.
The Russians have four Aces showing with another in the hole, while the Outlaw US Empire has a possible straight showing with nothing in the hole.
Epigraph:
04.02.2022 – Working visit of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin to China
Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, January 20.
In January-February, the Russian Navy will conduct a series of naval exercises in January-February in all areas of responsibility of the fleets.
In accordance with the training plan for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for 2022, a series of naval exercises are being held in January-February in all areas of responsibility of the fleets under the general supervision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy. Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov.
The exercises will cover the waters of the seas adjacent to the territory of Russia, as well as operationally important areas of the World Ocean. Separate exercises will be held in the waters of the Mediterranean, North, Okhotsk Seas, in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean and in the Pacific Ocean.
It is planned to attract more than 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, 1,000 units of military equipment, and about 10,000 military personnel to participate in the events.
CHIRU-2Q22
From January 18 to January 22 of this year, the Russian-Chinese-Iranian naval exercises CHIRU-2Q22 are being held in the Gulf of Oman and the airspace above it.
On the Russian side, a detachment of ships of the Pacific Fleet is taking part in them as part of the Guards Order of Nakhimov missile cruiser Varyag, the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Tributs and the large sea tanker Boris Butoma. .
The exercises include artillery firing at a sea target, joint tactical maneuvering, search and rescue at sea. The organization of inspection activities and the release of a ship captured by pirates will be worked out.
In the future, a detachment of ships of the Pacific Fleet will continue moving to the Mediterranean Sea, where, together with the forces of the Northern and Baltic Fleets, it will take part in the exercises of the inter-fleet grouping of the Navy.
On January 15, a detachment of ships of the Baltic and Northern Fleets, consisting of six large landing ships, left the port of Baltiysk and began to advance to the area of exercise in the Mediterranean Sea.
Currently, detachments of ships are on their way to the North Sea.
As to the six landing craft, the suggestion has been made that they’re going through the Med to the Black Sea in the area of Ukraine, possibly as preparation for an amphibious landing in southern Ukraine. Quite possible. Of course, it’s equally possible that they’re going to the Med for the exercises.
I find the choice of January-February for a full-scale set of naval exercises using the entire Russian navy interesting, given the high probability of a war in Ukraine in that time frame. I don’t see this as a coincidence, but rather an estimate from Russian intelligence that things are getting testy.
The situation is very weird. America has a President who is essentially a shit-stain in the seat of his expensive blue suit. So at least publicly, America is being governed by a shit-stain. America is just going to collapse. Not that this would be a bad thing.
America is devolving into an open rancid sewer along all the dimensions that constitute a Society…Americans are escaping into drug use and Fantasy Football-and into Fantasy in general….I can’t wait for that apex of American Civilization known as the Super Bowl half-time show in five weeks…
To para-phrase the tune Officer Kumpke from the 1961 Blockbuster Westside Story:We are doomed…We are doomed…We are doomed….followed by a young Russ Tamblyn doing a back flip into the septic tank-know as America….
Orlov brings forth quite likely happenings that would complete the Russian diplomatic initiatives.
We have one imperative: the status quo cannot stand.
We have two variables: the US will light the Ukie fuse, and/or the Russians will use less than obvious means to reduce the threat of the West.
The one constant is Russia will act.
Dmitry has filled in the blanks, set the context, and provided the geopolitical forecast, short and sweet.
That was a delightfully optimistic read. Thank you, I needed that.
The only concren is that you might be positing more intelligence to empire than they actually have.
Yes, this is a possibility. However, the empire have no conditions to react, anyway, as we know, now. They are surrounded. Let’s hope they still care for their health.
Spot on.
“Putin and Xi may be about to launch a whole new global financial system when they meet in Beijing. May be a rumor, I am not sure yet.”
I like this part. Hope it will be a done deal.
@Soren
I would love to see a new global financial system launched at US and EU face! If it does happen, it would also be a clear declaration that president Putin is going to start his “surgical’ strikes pretty soon, with or without any Western permission. We are not living in epochal times, but in the change of an epoch…
I must say that Mr. Orlov’s essay is better than mine since I didn’t come right out and declare the following nearly as well, and in the latter case, not at all:
” By signing a document in which they declare their refusal to abide by what they previously agreed to, the US and NATO would essentially declare themselves to be apostates from international law and order. This, in turn, would imply that their own security needs can be disregarded and that instead they deserve to be humiliated and punished.
“Further, by putting their refusal in writing, the US and NATO would declare the collective security principle itself—specifically with respect to the US and NATO—to be null and void….”
It’s this outcome that has given Blinken et al fits of hysteria–that is when they finally grasped it. Tomorrow’s Lavrov–Blinken meeting won’t last very long–unless–the Outlaw US Empire confesses its errors and offers to make amends. But nobody’s expecting that outcome to occur.
While it’s nice to have the moral high ground, in the end it remains true that the West isn’t going to give up their agenda. Russia has followed the “forms must be obeyed”, as Martyanov says, but it’s going to require a military confrontation to make the US and NATO change their ways. A diplomatic victory in the end doesn’t change anything on the ground. Just ask Iran.
The problem with requiring a military confrontation is that we could all end up dead.
I have no doubt about any detail that you have cleverly presented Mr Orlov.
I think you’re completely correct.
My only concern is how the idiot US/ziocon elite will respond to the inevitable?
I just can’t see their arrogance and pride allowing them to take the ‘hits’ that are coming their way without them believing that they can escalate the situation and still come out victorious somehow?
It may be called, the “John Wayne” option.
A fascinating and revealing trait of those who are consumed with arrogance is their inability of true reflection.
Instead of casting a shadow like the rest of us, they instead think, that it is they, who emit the light.
An evil and bloodthirsty ideology has consumed them.
If they are able to learn a lesson of humility, I haven’t seen it.
THAT is my only real concern.
The greatest danger that these ‘controllers of power’ wield, is their sincere conviction of their own righteousness.
And, that is the bitter root of all evil.
As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get a punch in the mouth,
Problem is that this punch in the mouth could end up with all of us dead. We all need to keep remembering those 14 US subs each with 24 Trident II missiles with MIRV warheads. Russia can’t shoot all of them down, no matter how good the S-500 is or how many they have. WWIII is not going to be good for anyone.
There is no winning strategy involving these 14 subs. Therefore they won’t be used.
What makes you think that? They’re there for second strike capability. If you’ve already lost, why not take down everyone else with you, out of revenge if no other reason? In the middle of WWIII, you’re counting on everyone making a rational assessment as to whether that would be a “winning strategy”? Seriously? Would you bet your life that is how it will go?
That’s why they are useless. There is no need for a second strike capability because there won’t be a first strike. Russia’s security concerns can be addressed without destroying the world. Everything else at this point is just apocalyptic porn, and I am not interested in it.
Promises are not subjected to international law.
That’s correct. They are not. Those who break them are.
And so we should not expect any military action to take place between February 4th and February 20th. Should any military mischief occur during the Olympics, which is traditionally a time of peace in the world, it is sure to be a Western provocation, since the Olympics are a traditional time of Western provocations (Georgia during the Beijing Olympics in 2008; the Ukraine during the Russian Olympics in Sochi in 2014). We can be sure that everyone is very much prepared for this provocation and that it will be dealt with very harshly.
And so, exactly when to expect the next western false-flag provocation, especially given the hard slap in the face planned by Putin and Xi at the west’s most prized propaganda event. Remains to be seen exactly how quickly and harshly it will be dealt with.
I mentioned in a previous thread that I suspect a false flag by the US/NATO before or just at the start of the Olympics. They have a history of doing this sort of thing. Otherwise, I think that Orlov is right and that Russia will initiate a response after the Olympics.
This may well be the reason why several military exercises have already started or are being prepared to happen during the Olympics. Certainly they will be close enough of the HQ of some of the richest people in the world, and will indeed make them swallow very hard and think twice…
Sad as it is to say, someone may end up getting the Georgia treatment and they’ll never know what hit ’em.
Military technical riposte?
Add to the list a change to the rules of engagement in Syria and release of launch codes for the S-300 battalions..
If conflict becomes kinetic in Ukraine, all “advisers” should really worry about their lives.
USA thought it was funny, mercilessly bombing Russian contractors in Deir ez-Zor for hours.
It will cry foul when finding itself on the receiving side of the bombardment, but it will be too late.
They have made a precedent, so payback is going to hurt … a lot.
A payback has already happened in Syria. The things that can potentially go on in the Ukraine will be an epic rout of Nazis and their US/NATO handlers and sponsors.
An essential part of any measures to “turn up the pain” on the West, short of all-out war, is “plausible deniability”. While there are many plausibly deniable actions, taking out military installations in Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, etc. can hardly qualify as such. The idea that the West would simply “melt” and try to divert public attention away from such actions in order to “save face” is probably misguided and dangerously counter-productive.
^^;;^^
Morc
I agree. That part of Orlov’s article made no sense to me. Much more likely would be Russian efforts to subvert or influence the governments of Poland and Romania such that those governments would decide to refuse NATO installations. Harder to do, perhaps, but much safer than “causing accidents.”
It is against stated Russian policy to subvert or interfere with governments. That’s from somebody else’s playbook.
Good luck tearing Poland away from the US cash flow.
ruca
“Good luck tearing Poland away from the US cash flow.”
If Russia stop nato/u.s what will be left of their economies?
Will the F.I.R.E economy be enough to keep the empire afloat printing $ at will?
Will countries dump their $ holdings?
etc etc
check the newsfeed “Stocks and Awe: The Federal Reserve Regime Change is Here!”
The bond markets are finally “getting even” bc the fed is not buying them all up anymore, they need to fight inflation…
How can the zone-A economy finance a war? That is what i dont understand, remember zone-A buys Titanium from Russia,rare earth metals from China, All our drugs from China, computer chips from taiwan and our “elites” wants a war? How will they resupply the armies? How will they feed the population when most logistics stop?
🤷♂️
Perfect. In total agreement. No war just small accidents. The best way to drive your enemy crazy is be happy and successful.
These guys(and some gals), fall under the category and observance of the private side of the Federal Reserve, which is always wrong, but never in doubt.
I booked marked this page, and will come back every so often to see if what Orlov predicts actually happens. For all of us armchair geopolitical “analysts” these are such rewarding moments. Glad to be around to witness all of this. These moments happen what, once ever 20 to 30 years? If Russia and China form a military alliance, that’ll be over the top.
Good idea. Dmitry believes that the US will just fade away, in shock and awe, before people they consider subhuman. Carriers mysteriously lost? Oh well, what can we do about that ? Yeah right!
Let me give you another scenario of America’ demise. It comes from an American writer, Henry Miller, who lived in Paris in the 1930’s. He knew nothing of nuclear weapons; at the time the world was preoccupied with Hitler and fascism he boozed and whored, shocking George Orwell who came to visit him. (Orwell of course lived in Paris in the same derelict ways a few years earlier, but as a convinced socialist!). Miller refused to fight the fascists in Spain. He observed that behind the horizon, beyond the coming great war, lay a world seduced by visions of American techno-nirvana, a promise of easy life of untold affluence for everyone, made available simply for the price of denouncing one’s own cultural identity and history and embracing the vacuous American way of life.
Miller wrote these prophetic words: “I see America spreading disaster. I see America as a black curse on the world. I see a long night settling in and that mushroom which has poisoned the world withering at the roots.”
The price of liberating the world from America, will likely be a long and cold night, if not an onset of eternity. Have no illusions!
I prefer James Joyce’s take on America. He wrote that he has heard of a place called Murka but he can’t be sure if it really exists.
Não gosto de professoras e adivinhações mas pelo menos no que diz respeito ao cogumelo e a noite longa e fria ele foi profético.
Glad to be around to witness all of this.
Indeed, I also believe that this is a unique time in history. More than just categorical divisions used by historians, i believe that it marks the end of the elite control of society through their governmental organizations and controlled socio-economic systems.
The west relied on Empire to keep the hierarchical structure they call World Order. But, when Russia stopped their advance in Syria, imperialism collapsed. What is happening, now, is just the continuation of the struggle to remove it from the Eastern world – and probably good part of the Southern world, as well, where the poorest, most exploited countries are located. The historic time of imperialism is definitely over.
More will come in time, such as the end of the capitalist State, when the peoples of the world will finally be liberated from their chains.
Glad to see I’m no longer alone talking about the fact that “our immediate future has been carefully plotted out for us by Russia and China” which leads us to “the inevitable reality of what is about to unfold”. See how I arrive at the same conclusions but from another angle ”
A Chinese-Russian Christmas tale ?
Humanity’s fate will most probably be decided in this first quarter of 2022
I heard on the news Biden telling the press that Putin is close to a nuclear war (over Ukraine). Holy cow!
That probably translates to that the Foggy Bottom crazies are unable to handle too many humiliations, or even a status quo that much longer. Worrying.
There will be no war. Not before the Olympics, not during the Olympics, not after the Olympics. Ukraine will not attack the Donbass. NS2 will not be blocked. Russia will not be disconnected from Swift. The economic consequences of any and all of these is too severe–for both Europe and the US. And Russia is way too smart to go to war or to engage in obvious sabotage over the lack of signatures on a treaty. I think someone slipped some funny stuff into the samovar.
Rodrigo amigo, I agree there will be no war over Ukraine. The Ukraina is fruit that is falling, one by one, back onto Mother Russia’s side of the garden at ripe time.
The real problem is NATZO’s broken promises not to expand Eastward of West Germany; and NATZO’s new role as the global mercenary army of Anglo Zionazi Capitalist Imperialism.
Thank goodness for level headed voices like yours.
There will be no conventional war over Ukraine.
Iran, Russia, and China to hold Indian Ocean naval drills starting … tomorrow (January 21st).
These drills must have been in the planning for a while.
Iran, Russia, and China to hold ‘2022 Marine Security Belt’ naval drills in the Indian Ocean
https://thecradle.co/Article/news/5989
Yes, military exercises are planned well in advance.
Quote
And so we should not expect any military action to take place between February 4th and February 20th. Should any military mischief occur during the Olympics, which is traditionally a time of peace in the world, it is sure to be a Western provocation, since the Olympics are a traditional time of Western provocations (Georgia during the Beijing Olympics in 2008; the Ukraine during the Russian Olympics in Sochi in 2014). We can be sure that everyone is very much prepared for this provocation and that it will be dealt with very harshly.
End Quote
I agree with that timetable. And yes, I fully expect a Ukrainian provocation or an outright attack on Donbass. Orlove doesn’t mention the nine NATO military exercises which begin precisely in February. Apparently every commentator except myself has not noticed that 64,000 foreign troops and hundreds of aircraft and ships – 4 times more than in 2021 exercises – are being delivered to Ukraine right in time for a Donbass assault.
Quote
The worst kind of provocation would be if NATO advisers actually succeed in goading the hapless and demoralized Ukrainian troops into invading the Donbass. If that happens, there will be two steps to that operation. The first will involve confusing the Ukrainians into walking into a trap. The second will be to threaten to destroy them using Russian long-range artillery from across the Russian border.
End Quote
There won’t be a threat. It will simply be done. And I have no idea what he means by “walking into a trap.” The fact that they’re actually invading Donbass is the trap – the trap prepared by the CIA and neocons in order to sacrifice Ukraine towards the agenda of demonizing Russia further – and possibly starting a war with NATO as per those NATO forces in Ukraine.
Quote
But since the government in Kiev has shown no intention of fulfilling the terms of these agreements during the intervening years and instead has done its utmost to sabotage them, there is no reason to expect a new round of Minsk agreements to be signed. Instead, it will be the end of the road for Ukrainian statehood. Putin has promised exactly that.
End Quote
This part is absolutely correct.
Quote
NATO advisers are likely to be frustrated in their efforts to cause the Ukrainians to attack: it is preferable for them to sit there being poked and prodded by their NATO handlers and nagged by US/EU officials and spies than to have their best and brightest obliterated by Russian artillery or to face a final round of national humiliation.
End Quote
That would be true if it wasn’t a bunch of hard line neo-Nazi nationalists running Ukraine. These people are ideological anti-Russia fanatics. So I don’t see the CIA and neocons having any trouble getting them to attack. Once they’ve done so once, of course, and gotten trashed by Russia, then they might be unwilling to do it again. Of course, by then it’s too late.
I don’t know that I can plug up all the holes in your knowledge in a single comment, but I’ll try. The Ukrainian military does not have a winning strategy in the Donbass—never had, never will. What inevitably happens is that they try to punch through the densely settled areas and try to get control of the Russian border. This puts them inside a cauldron where they run out of food and munitions and get destroyed. Then they sue for peace and sign Minsk agreements. And the Kiev government isn’t run by Nazi freaks but by self-serving oligarchs. The freaks are just the street muscle. They’ve already been trashed but they never learn their lessons. Finally, there will be no war with NATO over the Ukraine. It is not a member and no NATO members will fight Russia over it.
EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT, Dimitry! I cried laughing at the accuracy of this. I had just sent a similar but small comment to Telegram. Russian senator Alexey Pushkov (See RT) will also love it.
@ Mr. Orlov
“The Romanian installation might become inoperative due to a newly discovered small volcano nearby; the Polish one might succumb of a freak swamp gas explosion…”
Very grateful for such an enlightening piece, your use of comedy to make a forecast is masterful, only way to approach the one-trick pony circus that is the US/Eurostan.
I placed my bets a while ago on the Aegis Ashore getting turn to scrap metal, but I could not visualize a nearby volcano in Romania, nor a gas swamp in Poland. Thanks for the visual. Your forecast includes a tsunami warning that will further expose the West’s moral morass. Yes they will be lying at every step of the way, yes they will be begging Russia (and China) not to go public with concessions, yes they will sign up papers (privately), once they realize there are one too many volcanoes in Eurostan, and it is getting swampy.
Geopolitical forecasts do not contemplate personal desires, but I do have one wish. I fervently hope Ukronazis will make the wrong move in the direction of Donbass. There is a sequence of pictures of Donbass I cannot erase from my memory, a mother baby-strolling along a road to be torn to pieces a few minutes later by Ukronazi fire, stroller in the middle of the road, no baby in sight. I would be waiting for a day of reckoning, and Russia is the only one that can make it happen. Until that day, that baby and the mother will not be resting in peace.
Lone Wolf
My guess is, it’s just as “likely” that a batch of “test missiles” will go rogue off course with unfotunate “fog of war’ GPS ‘failure’ and hit old delapidated USSR natural gas pipeline infrasturcture at a key node (or three) in the Ukraine (or maybe just inside Russia ;-) thereby forcing a network provider shutdown. Luckily (for Germany at least) they have NS II ready to go & flow. Good foresight by Putin & Co.
So, who was bluffing?
After reading Indian Punchline latest:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/blinken-delays-us-response-to-russia/
it would seem it was the Europeans. They swore they would march in lockstep with the US, but they seem to have cold feet now. Those continental Europeans wont sacrifice themselves for the Anglo Empire after all. Who knew?
I’m certain the realization that another war in the German tea garden was forthcoming played a role in that walk back.
I do not think Russian Capitalism will survive prolonged contact with the success of Chinese Communists in eradicating corruption and building the world’s most successful economy and democracy. The USSR is still remembered fondly by most. Even if it takes decades, it will come.
This comment made my brain crash. 30 years of contact isn’t prolonged enough? And the Soviet economy is remembered fondly by most? What planet is this about, again? I am sure that I have no idea.
The China of the the 90s and the 10s is going to be completely unrecognizable in 30 years, essentially already is. They are an openly Marxist state working towards the same goals that class-traitor bureaucrats stole from the Soviet citizens. If the USSR supposedly turned Capitalist for commodities and freedom, what are they going to do when met with so much Chinese Communist success in producing… everything. The sky is no limit for the Chinese economy, and material conditions in China already grant them more practical freedoms than the average Russian can hope for, who still live in an oligarchy that is slowly dismantling Soviet social programs and economic rights. What is the future of Russia after Putin dies? As successful as his generation is, I’m not convinced it is building a system that’s resilient enough to outlive them by more than a few decades. The Chinese way of doing business offers both the material riches of Capitalism and the social responsibility of the Marxist program.
Regarding nostalgia for the USSR, every nation that voted to preserve the union has a majority of people who would rather see a return to Socialism. The joke is that if there were an election today between Navalny, Putin, and Stalin, that Stalin would win (If it were fair, but he’s no stranger to purging bureaucrats). You can find these polls easily through any engine of your choice. Recently there was even a poll of former GDR citizens, and it found that they want it back.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Poll-Most-Russians-Prefer-Return-of-Soviet-Union-and-Socialism-20160420-0051.html
I would ask you to consider your biases, having been a practical American for the past few decades.
My biases as a practical American cause me to consider your attempt at big picture analysis of Russia and China as just a bunch of words unrelated to reality because I can spot some minor discrepancies that cause me to doubt that you have any real direct experience with either Russia or China.
I think what you’ve spotted is a topic that makes you uncomfortable. I think that you do not want to reconcile your own ideological position regarding Communism/socialism with how the majority of people who lived under it actually feel about it in comparison to Capitalism.
China is bringing a better business deal. That’s all it really comes down to.
The Chinese did NOT eradicate corruption. They have a better handle on it; keeping corruption to a MANAGEABLE level. Meanwhile, the USA *promotes* corruption and have shown zero interest in tackling it.
You are right, even Switzerland has corruption.
It is in the nature of men, but if it is kept under control at a manageable level it is just an annoyance
That’s not quite right. In the US corruption is legal. It is not a corrupt system, it is a system OF corruption. Fighting corruption in the US would involve destroying the entire system.
E qual é exatamente a diferença entre um sistema corrupto e um sistema de corrução? Essa eu não entendi, sinceramente. Pode haver coisa pior no mundo do que se comprar “legalmente” um congressista para legislar a favor de seus interesses particulares e depois sair proclamando aos quatro ventos que isso é democracia? Se esse tipo de comportamento não explica a embretada moral e a própria decadência do zioimpério, o que mais explicaria?
Rhetoric meets statistical reality. But the general idea is that the Chinese are the only ones who are actually developing a viable political-economic model for modern technology and conditions. Russia is still stuck in a phase of reaction to its post-Soviet devastation. The entirety of its politics is dedicated to preserving itself in the core of its own power, while post-soviet republics are mired in chaos, corruption, religious extremism, fascism, and so on.
Eventually the reality of Russian Capitalism will have no American mirror to ideologically sustain itself. They will see the failure of Capitalism in America, they will see the destruction Capitalists created in their homeland. They will see their Chinese neighbors living the Soviet dream; and they might just want it back.
You are one-trick pony, aren’t you. China great, Russia stuck in the past, bring back USSR, blah-blah-blah. Sure, whatever…
Dmitry, those are weak-willed words attacking my character to hide your emotional reaction to something you can’t avoid, the looming spectre of Communism. This isn’t about the past, but the future, my American friend.
Thank you for this great writeup.
More phantasy than analysis. Putin is a risk-averse politician who wants to keep the other side guessing and his options open. He was caught flat-footed when the Maidan events took place and barely managed to salvage Crimea and to a certain extent the Donbass. Since then he has learned his lesson, though, and has improved Russia’s economical and geopolitical position, albeit at the cost of making Russia wholly dependent on an unequal alliance with China, and not being able to raise the living standards of broad sections of the Russian population. The intervention in Syria is a mixed blessing. It keeps an important ally afloat and provides testing and training grounds for Russian weapons and troops. But those same troops are hopelessly surrounded by enemy forces in case a shooting war ever broke out. Still, Russia is on a roll at the present point of time, having thwarted the color revolution attempts in Belarus and Kazakhstan, reaping boatloads of money as an energy crisis is engulfing nearly all of the rest of the world, and looking on as the collective West is experiencing a nervous breakdown due to Covid and the alleged Russian invasion threat toward Ukraine.
Question is, what to do with it all? And with whom? Russians have historically underperformed whenever their ruler at the time tried to put them on the offensive – Think of how the Poles trounced the Bolsheviks right after WWI when the latter tried marching westward to bring revolution to Germany. What Russians need to perform is a clear case of the motherland being under threat – Think of WWII. The present situation does not evoke any real sense of being attacked inside of the Russian psyche precisely because Russia appears to be so strong. Besides, Russian society has been weakened by Covid just like all the others.
Hence all Putin can do to try and get the Russians behind him consists of waiting until the collective West makes a move. The Russian psyche is the real battle ground. Massaging it was also the main purpose of putting forward security proposals to the West. With these proposals rejected, Putin can still not go on the offensive. His short-term win-win scenario might, however, consist of waiting for the Ukrainians to attack, in which case it will be possible to send in sufficiently motivated troops to defeat them followed by absorbing the Donbass and maybe a little bit more, or for the Ukrainians not to attack, which is also a kind of move, in which case the energy crisis will stay at the forefront, which will then lead to NS2 being opened, which will reduce Russia’s dependency on Ukraine as a gas transit and China as a gas customer.
Either of it won’t solve the NATO problem and no, there won’t be any volcanos popping up in Poland or Romania. If history is any guide, then Russia will need to put missiles in the vicinity of the USA just like the Soviet Union erstwhile brought missiles to Cuba in response to US missiles in Turkey. Would Cuba still be a viable place, or maybe Venezuela? And how to respond to the orbital bomber, the X-37B? Does it suffice to be able to shoot it down with S-550 missiles?
This commentator guesses that a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 is about to break out. Putin may announce Zircon missiles being positioned, possibly on refurbished nuclear cruisers patrolling near the US coast line. There might also be an announcement of intermediate range nuclear missiles being introduced just like the SS20s of old, or maybe we are going to see a test flight of a Russian orbital bomber, just like the test flight conducted by the Buran space shuttle in the 80s.
This comment appears to be the handiwork of a professional propagandist, carefully weaving a large number of falsehoods and exaggerations into a plausible scenario. Toxic!
Dimitri
Reality will continue apace. And sooner than you think, Guesser will be seen and exposed as the jackass that we know him to be. He might be a 16 year old with a bad case of acne.
This person’s PhD advisor will give him extra credit for his response.
Sweet. Thanks Dmitri and Andrei, I really wanted to read this but couldn’t fork out the ten bucks. I have purchased your guys’ books at the library where I work though! 🙂
Really informative and beautifully written piece Dmitry. Jeez, it’s no wonder the Russians produced so many great writers.
In the case where they agree to sign, will the NATO respect that agreement? They have demonstrated a complete lack of honesty and good faith in honouring the original agreement even if it was verbal. One cannot be blamed for thinking that another agreement, even one written as a legal document and officially endorsed, will mean anything to them in the longer term.
The punishment for signing then violating the agreement is likely to be significantly more severe than for not signing at all.
The FACTS are that since 1991 to 2021 (a span of 30 years ) Ukraine has bled on average 0.5% of its population from a high of 51.4 million to today’s 43.1 million. A population decline every year indicates that Ukraine’s problems began way before the faux ‘Russia threat’ and has continued unabated in a downward trajectory under the tutelage of our ‘American/NATO Partners.
This 43.1 million no doubt includes Crimea (approx. 2.5 million ), which by the way. is still colour coded, usually in canary yellow (my Aunty Mary had a canary, I think she rescued it from a coalmine that shut down in Lancashire, England ) as Ukrainian in most western mapping/atlas guides. In essence Ukraine has lost 1/5 of its population over the last 30 years.
FAILED STATE – Land grabbed by Hungary, Romania, Poland , combined with the New State of East Ukraine (Donbass . . . or give it a another title ), then America’s New Plaything is toast, filled with Old People & Oligarchs . . . . and the annual March of the Nazi battalions.
As I wrote, it’s on its merry way to becoming “an ethnic theme park and nature preserve”… with a bunch of nuke plants that need to be decommissioned, and Russia isn’t going to pay for that, so the US and the EU should get a piggy bank together soonish.
And what’s about the missiles in Kaliningrad?
Ukraine will be holding 9 different exercises with Nato between February/March – December. Collectively this puts about 45 000 Nato mercs in Ukraine at the same time, for most of the year. Seems like quite a risk of something happening!
A risk of them getting hurt? That would be a shame. But they already declared that NATO won’t fight to defend the Ukraine from Russia, so this is just typical useless NATO activity required to soak up the funds.
This is how I see it:
“Russia has demanded that both the US and NATO put their refusal to agree to the security guarantees in writing; these pieces of paper will be important moving forward. ”
There will simply be no such paper.
The west is run by lawyers, they know not to sign papers that don’t do them any good, even if this paper would be in writing all of their stances and positions.
They will not give the paper on principle.
Can’t forecast what will happen after but that’s my prediction regarding the current negotiations.
Blinken has stated that the US will supply Russia with a written response, in a week or two (I think).
Hi, Sire
I have read Mr. Martyanov’s books, I follow his blog, and others, like Mr Orlov, where there is still gray matter.
The lucid people of the West, apart from hoarding alcohol, and dancing like children, what can we do during this agonistic transit of the West. I am completely serious. There are so many innocent people in the West and I have always been concerned about them, but I can do nothing about the magnitude of the catastrophe that awaits us. I repeat, you Russians, who suffered your collapse, could you please give us some practical advice for what awaits us?
Thank you, gentlemen, greetings from Spain.
According to the recommendations of the RAND in 2019, the next target of the Anglozionists would be Moldova and Transnistria. They advocated stirring trouble over there to distract the Russians.
While I believe that the Russian armed forces are extremely professional and capable of countering any threat, if the AZs make a move on Transnistria simultaneous to Donbass, there would be some confusion. Transnistria is surrounded by the NATO after all.
* bravo *
Yes i like. I hope.is True. Sorry my englidh:)
I like the accuracy of the forecast. Just one important detail I tend to disagree.
In case of no expected response is received from US we might see some strange phenomena happen that make US forces and installations retreit – small vulcano or gas swamp suddenly appear near US military bases in Romania/Bulgaria/Poland and hopefully Serbia (Bondstill on ossupied Kosovo).
But, although this silent under-the-radar force would be very efficient in achieving Russians goals, it will fail to achieve one important goal which I tend to see although not publically announced – dissolving NATO. In order to dissolve NATO in quickest and safest way, Russia has to make European nations stop trusting and fearing US. They need to panically start running away from US in immediate fear for their own security in front of Russia rockets.
So, I would not be surprised to see a public demonstration of Russian destroying and terrifing military power like rocketing NATO instalations in Romania/Bulgaria/Poland on a sunny winter morning. And yes, hopefully Bondstill!
That will make Europeans simply freeze their NATO membership hence putting an end on NATO as we know it today.
Great article, indeed. Many thanks, Mr Orlov.
I could take the whole day reading your analysis Mr Orlov. The whole situation seems to be revolving on your analysis, I don’t mind calling you a prophet. Thanks for your insightful analysis.
There are many things that I disagree with in Dmitry Orlov’s analysis, and I would say, overall, what he offers is a roadmap to nowhere. You can’t hit American or NATO targets without the expectation of a heavy, escalatory response, and a diffused, broad based, indiscriminate, global leashing out by Russia at the Alliance would quickly turn badly for everyone, Russia included.
I would like to think that the “military-technical” response would be very focused, seeking a quick change on the ground in Ukraine, such that would create a “new political reality” in Kiev, and such that could be defended and actually force the West to accept going forward (whatever the short-term consequences). Any silly, half-assed actions, like taking out Azov battalion, blowing up Ukrainian army’s installations, taking more crumbs of Novorossija and the like, or even engaging in some global cockamamie schemes in Cuba and Venezuela, won’t bring any real change in the West’s attitude toward Russia. It will only get worse. If Nuland and Stoltenberg don’t know that Kiev is a bridge too far, Putin needs to show them that. That !!! And if I understand Vladimir Vladimirovich correctly, he fully intends to dismantle the Maidan regime – one way or another. Nothing short of, or instead of, that objective will do. Russia must re-establish its rightful influence in Kiev, one way or another. By next way, the diplomatic “way” will have closed and Clausewitz’es continuation of diplomacy by other means will be actionable. Personally, I think something like Doug McGregor’s scenario will materialize. (the general’s comments are ~10 minutes to the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5EBMPmKEjo ) If the US does not formally agree to Russia’s proposals, then Russia has a free hand, and it should act quickly and decisively, with focus and resolve to achieve a goal, ….an achievable goal, for crying out loud !
Another poor victim who thinks that the Ukraine is somehow important. It isn’t. None of this has to do with the Ukraine. The problem is with the US/NATO posing a threat to Russian security.
What is critical for Russia is to make sure that the Ukraine remains Europe’s problem, forever. It has over a dozen nuclear reactors that the Europeans will have to pay to dismantle—and that’s just a start. They will also have to absorb an influx of several million Ukrainian economic refugees at that economy falls apart. They will have to provide humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian population in order to limit the extent of a Ukrainian crime wave pouring across EU’s borders. Meanwhile, the Russians will simply look the other way because the Ukraine will be Somebody Else’s Problem. You broke it—you own it.
I listened to Lavrov today’s presser talk about Russia’s sphere of influence. Anyway, Russia is not going to “own” Ukraine’s basket-case economy. Russia is going to clean up the political mess in Kiev, “reorganize” the Uk army and security purging it of its hostile elements to ensure no cookies on Maidan from Vicki, neutralize politically the oligarchs, free Medvedchuk, Kozak and others, restore Russian publications and TV, supervise new elections (with the help of OSCE), and the process of federalization, sign a treaty of friendship of cooperation and go home. Admittedly, it will take longer than the troops’ return from Alma Ata but I reckon, it will happen within a year, just to spike Blinken. Whatever mess remains, the Ukrainians will solve it themselves with God’s help (almost forgot – the Kiev Patriarchate will be restored to Moscow’s Metropoly) …chances are China will want to invest there. It’s right on the Belt and Road to Berlin.
I love that ‘slip-of-the-finger’ – “reorganize” the Uk army …
Yes it would be a wonderful idea indeed if Russian could visit the UK and ‘reorganize’ the British army and purge it of hostile elements !…and along the way to put Blinkers on a spike !
You certainly got that ‘road to & from Berlin’ right !
The Empire will be defeated, that I am sure.
But I am growing confident it won’t be an apocalyptic battle like the Mordor’s end in Lord of the Rings,
But rather a slow vanishing, loss of knowhow to repair things, lack of everyday stuff, like the Trantor’s end in the Foundation cycle.
Btw, LotR was written by J.R.Tolkien, while Foundation was written by a Russian, I. Asimov…
Thank you Mr. Orlov for some of your logic and realism ;-).
Following up on this commentator’s much derided previous guess, here is another one. Developments are now accelerating and it seems as if Russia might be going to recognize the Donbass republics. The Russian parliament seems to be taking it out of Putin’s hand:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-parliament-discuss-donbass-independence-recognition-war-would-be-necessary
Putin would still have to approve of any such move, but there would be a lot of logic to it given how the situation with the Russian public presents itself. Russians might just be willing to go along with moving into the Donbass republics initially, and from that point onward everything else would be kind of automatic. If Ukraine backs down and ceases all hostilities along the front line, then that would wholly discredit the Maidan, destabilizing the regime and opening up the possibility for the Maidan being reversed; If Ukraine continues engaging in not so low-level shellings and incursions, then with Russian troops present all-out escalation would be inevitable. That’s how you start a battle: Let your forces move into a position where the enemy has no choice but to back down or attack, in which case your forces have no choice but to fight. Does Russia still have a choice? Perhaps not given the salami slice tactics of the Western war party whereby Ukraine is continually fed with ever increasing amounts of weaponry, advisers and troops. Despite oll of that, the war party obviously thinks that Russia is still only bluffing and that salami slice tactics can continue to go on unimpeded.
The previous guess of a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 breaking out would still hold, of course. We would see both, a war in Ukraine and a standoff over missiles.
This approach to commenting accords well with the tried and true marketing principle of “If our product makes you sick, you get more of it completely free of charge.”
American foreign [policy is influenced by their military sales… their military sales fell by 17% in 2021. this is why we see this so called Russian threat on the Ukraine on the news all day long
Dmitry
Sou um leitor assíduo dos seus textos e sinceramente gostaria que os desdobramentos dessa crise, para o bem de todos nós, se dessem exatamente como vc descreveu.
No entanto, vc foi bastante injusto com o Richard steven hack e como o Nicholai ao reduzir o que eles dizem a “pornografia apocalíptica. A preocupação deles é real e tão bem fundamentada quanto a sua.
Quem conhece o ziocons e seus métodos não pode descartar que eles destruam o mundo apenas por vingança pois eles são messiânicos. E como tal acreditam piamente que sua causa é a justa e que no final de tudo uma carruagem flamejante descerá do reino dos céus e os levará ao encontro do todo poderoso que os cobrirá de graças e medalhas por terem cumprido sua missão na terra.
Não estou fazendo uma caricatura e vc sabe muito bem que os pompeus do estado profundo – aqueles que trapasseiam, roubam e matam para “cumprir seu dever” – não teriam nenhum escrúpulo em não admitir a derrota e lançar contra a Rússia uma salva de mísseis de todos aqueles submarinos.
Para eles não existe isso de “o jogo acabou, perdemos e vamos sair com o rabo entre as pernas enquanto temos um”. Vc está descartando em sua análise a loucura total que querendo ou não é uma variável que nunca deve ser desconsiderada quando se trata de refletir sobre o que os humanos são capazes de fazer. Para a desgraça de todos nós. E é disso que os dois comentaristas falam.
Aí é que entra a grande incógnita: que algoritmo do mundo real os russos usarão para lidar com o mundo dos alucinados? Esses que vc citou? Repito o que disse no início: para o bem de todos nós tomara que tudo aconteça como vc descreveu. Mas nunca perca de vista a loucura…
Por alguma razão, todos se recusam a acreditar que o potencial nuclear americano é insuficiente para causar danos significativos à Rússia. Além disso, poucas pessoas podem perceber adequadamente a informação de que os militares dos EUA estão longe de obedecer inquestionavelmente às autoridades políticas. E, de alguma forma, poucas pessoas percebem o quão frágil a América se tornou hoje, da economia à psique. E tudo isso é muito importante. Sim, existe um problema de “macaco com granada”, mas é solucionável.
Yandex translation. Mod:
For some reason, everyone refuses to believe that The American nuclear potential is insufficient to cause significant damage to Russia. In addition, few people can adequately perceive information that the U.S. military is far from unquestionably obeying political authorities. And somehow, few people realize how fragile America has become today, from the economy to the psyche. And all this is very important. Yes, there is a problem of “monkey with grenade”, but it is solvable.