It is impossible to predict what will happen following the recent meetings between US Secretary of State Kerry and President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow. After all, all which can come out of such a meeting are only words. Still, words matter, and in the case of the highest level officials of the two major powers on the planet, they matter a lot. And a lot of very important words were spoken in Moscow, in particular about Syria, and I believe that they deserve a closer look.
First and foremost, it is undeniable that the USA has had to back down from its previous “re-interpretation” of the Geneva Agreement. While the Russian side said that all the parties must negotiate together to appoint their representatives and task them with forming a transitional authority, the Americans declared that it was categorically unacceptable to have Assad or his representatives participate in these negotiations. But that was when the State Department was run by this bellicose russophobic and, frankly, imbecile bitch Hillary Clinton. John Kerry is a very different person who is maybe not in the same league as the outright brilliant James Baker, but who is nonetheless a smart and shrewed realist and a competent diplomat. It appears that he understands the futility of Hillary Clinton’s ideological stance since he has clearly indicated that it was for the Syrian people to decide who represents them and for the opposing parties to choose their leaders. In other words, the USA accepts to negotiate with Assad.
Foreign Minister Lavrov even indicated that the Russians had carefully coordinated their stance by means of personal consultations with President Assad who was fully informed of, and agreed with, the Russian position. In other words, the Americans are already negotiating with Assad.
Second, Secretary Kerry appeared to fully accept and even endorse the Russian line that external “extremists” are using the Syrian conflict for their own purposes and that these extremists represent a real threat for the entire region. Kerry confirmed this by stating that the USA supports the Syrian territorial integrity and the multi-ethnic and, most importantly, multi-confessional nature of the Syrian society. In other words, the USA is also accepting the Russian thesis that the al-Qaeda types cannot be allowed to seize power in Syria.
Thirdly, in regards to the canard about the Syrian military using chemical weapons, Kerry did say that these claims must be very carefully investigated before any conclusions are drawn. At this point Foreign Minister Lavrov revealed that the US and Russian intelligence services would work very closely to draw a common conclusion about what actually happened on the ground. Foreign Minister Lavrov said that “we all know that there are parties to this conflict which have a demonstrated capability to organize “provocations” (which, in the Russian language, really implies what is called “false flag” operation in the West) and that the USA and Russia had agreed not to allow that to happen. Secretary Kerry was clearly not to eager to comment about all this, but he did acquiesce and he most definitely did not contradict Lavrov. In other words, the USA has dumped any plans it might have had of blaming Assad for using chemical weapons.
I don’t know about you, but to me this looks like a full-spectrum victory for the Russian diplomacy who appears to have forced the USA to yield on all key points concerning the Syrian conflict.
There was a rather amusing and very uncharacteristic moment at the end of the joint Kerry-Lavrov press conference when Lavrov suddenly asked the reporters “do you know who won the Russia-USA hockey match today?” (the two teams were playing each other in the playoffs for the world championship) with a totally innocent look on his face. And when Lavrov “learned” from a Russian reporter that Russia had beat the US (with a score of 5-3 if I remember correctly) – he turned to Kerry and said “it appears that Russia has won!!!“. Kerry, being an savvy diplomat, also laughed at that, and the two were soon back-slapping each other. Frankly, I think that Lavrov made the American pay with this little comment for all the stupid crap that this bitch Clinton had said about Russia. Yes, the Russians would kindly agree to work with the USA, but only on Russian terms which they had stated from Day 1 and on which they yielded nothing. Lavrov really sent a clear message to the American elites: “if you play by civilized rules and treat us as equal partners, we will do our part. If you f**k with us, then you are on your own and we and the Chinese will watch you fail“. That is, I believe, what this “it appears that Russia has won” really meant. A kind tease, but a very serious message.
The credit for this positive, if provisional, outcome goes to the firm yet careful stance of the Russian diplomats and to Putin personally for having had the patience to carefully play his hand. But even before any credit is given to the Kremlin, the one party which deserves the most praise and gratitude is the Syrian military whose excellent performance, courage and skills on the battlefield nothing forced the Americans to come back to the negotiating table. Had the Syrian military collapsed (as so many had predicted) there is absolutely nothing the Russians could have done to force Kerry to make all the concessions he has made.
This conflict is far from over. For one thing, there are forces inside the USA – the “deep state” if you wish – who hate Obama, hate Kerry, hate Syria and, above all, hate Russia and who have huge resources which they can use to sabotage Kerry’s approach. Furthermore, the current US and Russian position is placing a wedge between the al-Qaeda crazies (who represent primarily foreign interests and, therefore, also most of the firepower) and the more moderate opposition (who probably represents more Syrians than the al-Qaeda crazies) and it remains to be seen how these two groups will deal with each other.
Still, if – and that is a big “if” – a small step was finally made to force the West to accept that Syria will not be handed over to the Wahabis, partitioned or turned into another failed state a la Somalia, then this is truly thanks to the patriotic courage of the Syrian soldiers and, in particular, the Syrian officer corps which resolutely stood in defense of their country.
And this is how it should be. Russia, China or Iran cannot “save” Syria. Nor should they. Only the Syrians can save Syria, of course. What Russia, China and Iran can do is stand by those forces in Syria who are carrying the heavy burden of fighting against the US/NATO/al-Qaeda/Israeli coalition. So while the behind the scenes role of China, Iran and even Hezbollah does not appear to have much to do with the events in Moscow, I am also sure that Russia alone would appear much weaker to the Americans than a informal but nevertheless highly effective alliance of Russia, China, Iran and Hezbollah.
To repeat – this is only a small but victorious skirmish in a much larger battle of a even bigger war and this is a small victory of words only, not of actual facts on the ground. Things can still change a million times over and over again.
But even with these caveats and disclaimers, I call this one as an unequivocal victory for Syria and its *real* friends.
The Saker
Thank you for this thoughtful analysis. What I find most promising, is Lavrov’s remarks about hockey. I think it had deeper significance – perhaps, I hope it does.
Thanks for the great update and analysis. What I found hopeful, was Lavrov’ comment about hockey and Russia’s win. I don’t believe it was a simple remark, but had deeper significance.
Excellent analysis, and very well said. I believe you are the first author to call for the payment of approbation and respect to the Syrian military, and now that it has been said, the foregoing omission of such courtesy is impossible to overlook. Indeed, they have fought well and bravely in the presence of fervent wishes for their failure and defeat from most of the world. That is loyalty, to both a country and an ideal, that should make the world ashamed.
This is truly excellent news. Let’s hope the US decides to pressure the Saudis and Qatar to back off. It’s a long way from the end of the war but it may be the beginning of the end.
Agree with your tribute to the Syrian armed forces.
Thank you for all that work you do for free to give us a fair view of the situation.
Dear Saker,
First of all, I am heartened by ALL the comments so far on your latest excellent analysis of the geoplotical situation surounding Syria, and the interaction of the superb Russian Diplomacy with those dreadful events.
These comments demonstrate that people are avidly looking for the truth and real objective analysis, and they always find it here on your blog.
I fully agree with marknesop that the Syrian army has fully demonstrated its loyalty to country and a nationalist ideal, and not at all a loyalty for one man/dictator, otherwise it would have crumbeled long ago…
Also, the invaluable contribution and the steadfast positions of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and others, have helped tremendously in giving impotus and high morale to the Syrian army and officer corps who really believed that they are fighting a battle to save Syria from utter extinction.
I salute your efforts and always look forward to your genuine and balanced views on all issues,
Thanks again and Best Regards,
Joe
@Joe: the Syrian army has fully demonstrated its loyalty to country and a nationalist ideal, and not at all a loyalty for one man/dictator, otherwise it would have crumbeled long ago…
Yes, this is EXACTLY the conclusion I am also coming to and that is a big difference with other countries and wars. An Army like the Syrian one does not fight for that long against that kind of odds and in such a brutal conflict unless it is fighting for much more than just a political leader, dictator or not. The fact that the Syrians have prevailed by sheer willpower is a far more telling “vote” than any vote at the ballot box. And God only knows what the really think about Assad, the Baath Party, the regimes various Mukhabarats or any other political issue. Just like during WWII the Russians fought the Nazis not out of some deep sense of love for Stalin (though some did certainly feel that too), but first and foremost for their country. What began as a counter-insurgency operation has now turned into a war of national liberation, the liberation of Syria from all the Salafi/Wahabi/Takfiri foreigners who are trying to destroy the Syrian society.
@EVERYBODY ELSE: thank you *VERY* much for your kind words. I especially appreciate them today because I also got some rather nasty emails accusing me of “siding with the oppressor” and being an enemy of the Palestinians. Whatever, those of you who follow my blog know that I am not at all, not in the least, an admirer of Assad or any Baathist politician and that in fact I wanted them out of power until I realize that the alternative was even much worse.
By not really being pro-Assad while at the same time being resolutely anti-FSA I put myself in the unenviable position of pissing off most people who have a more “black or white” view of this war. They believe that one side is horrible and evil, while the other side is pure and heroic. This is not my view. The ONLY side which I have come to admire are the Syrian people and the Syrian military. If tomorrow a truly principled and popular regime came to power I would be absolutely delighted, believe me. Alas, the ONLY person whom I really trust and admire in the entire Middle-East is Hassan Nasrallah. I have so far found no reason to trust any other national leader or politician.
I also hope that someday if that conflict does not end in the destruction of Syrian the patriotic military will displace the power of the Baath Party and security services and create a far more truly popular and representative regime than the one Hafez al-Assad created.
Anyway, thank you all again for your kind support which is really what keeps me going!
Cheers,
The Saker
Manicheanism tends to take over with civil wars. Both sides tend to believe all that is good is with them and all that is evil with the other and this usually leads to fiendish atrocities on both sides. The media often then gives selective reporting of atrocities by the side they favour. In a war with a foreign enemy you can respect the other guy because he’s fighting for his country but in a civil war you are fighting an enemy within and it becomes bitter and cruel because each side regards the other as traitors who are destroying the country.
As for betraying the Palestinians this is utter nonsense. A precondition for Palestinian liberation is the weakening of USraelian power. So long as the Zionists feel they can engineer regime change in the name of humanitarian intervention they will feel much less inclined to make any concessions to the Palestinians. Some of those committed to Palestine are lacking in any strategic thought.
I also happen to believe that Palestinian liberation will not occur until the victory of democracy in the Arab world and I fully understand how frustrated many feel because they believe the Syrian people have had their revolution stolen from them but that has happened because of the machinations of the Western powers and the imperialism of Wahabist Saudi Arabia not because of anything Russia has done. Had the West not done what they did to Libya and had they not insisted on Assad going as a precondition to negotiations it is possible that huge numbers of Syrian lives could have been saved.
Thank God Putin was in power and not Medvedev who would almost certainly have surrended to Washington.
Dear Saker,
Thanks again for this response.
I fully and unconditionally agree with you Wall to Wall again.
Please ignore the idiotic buffoons who send you Nasty emails, they are not worth your time…
Your principled positions speak louder than most pundits anywhere, and are well structured and convincing all the time.
Watching now live SHN….
Best,
Joe
I would like to echo the other commentators: this was a very good post.
But have you noticed that Kerry has already been forced to backtrack on his commitment to negotiating with Asad?
Clearly there are forces in the US that want to go for the jugular on Syria.
However, I am starting to think that the Syrian army has the advantage and momentum at this point. The next few months will determine the outcome. During this period, the army might be able to extinguish the main threat of the insurgency. That is what has the UK, France, Turkey, and Israel really scared. But they don’t seem to have any alternative to partially funding the losing side, unless they want an open war in the region.
Read Ibrahim Al Amin’s recent article at Al Akhbar English.
Last, I think it needs to be stressed how STUPID the Syrian opposition has been from the start. Whatever popular dynamic existed at first, it didn’t have the mass to topple the government. When it launched an armed insurgency, it must have known that it couldn’t win without foreign backing. When it looked for foreign backing, it could only turn to the most reactionary states in the region and beyond. It has consistently opposed any kind of political mediation. And now it is clearly aligned with the forces of reaction and imperialism. Not mention its open embrace of sectarianism, fundamentalism, and salafism.
In short, without excusing the actions of the government, it has to be said that the so called opposition bears a great deal of responsibility for the tragedy and crisis, and that it has its own stupidity to blame.
@Robert:A precondition for Palestinian liberation is the weakening of USraelian power. So long as the Zionists feel they can engineer regime change in the name of humanitarian intervention they will feel much less inclined to make any concessions to the Palestinians.
Exactly. And to prove the point of who is with the Israelis and who with the Palestinian people (not their clueless leadership!) – just look at whom the Isarelis bombed: did they attack the Syrian military or the FSA?
QED.
@Joe:Watching now live SHN….
I have to admit – I am green with envy :-)
Oh how much I wish that al-Manar would finally realize how important it would be to subtitle ALL his speeches in English and the post them all for download. But al-Manar simply don’t see the bigger, planetary, picture of how important SHN is…
@Anonymous12:28: But have you noticed that Kerry has already been forced to backtrack on his commitment to negotiating with Asad? Clearly there are forces in the US that want to go for the jugular on Syria.
Yes, the Neocons and the Zionist lobby are rabid with fury over Kerry’s stance. This is the “deep state” I was referring to. However, what matters now is not how Kerry packages his views (or lack thereof), is how the US state will, or will not, act on the commitments taken towards the Russians. To renege on their agreement for a SECOND time entails a lot of very serious risks for the USA, so I am not at all sure that the Neocons/Zionists will prevail.
I am starting to think that the Syrian army has the advantage and momentum at this point
Absolutely ALL the information I have seen so far fully corroborates this. I would rate this fact as a B-1 quality info.
Last, I think it needs to be stressed how STUPID the Syrian opposition has been from the start. Whatever popular dynamic existed at first, it didn’t have the mass to topple the government. When it launched an armed insurgency, it must have known that it couldn’t win without foreign backing. When it looked for foreign backing, it could only turn to the most reactionary states in the region and beyond. It has consistently opposed any kind of political mediation
Yes, but this is also a tragedy induced by years of oppression by the Baathists, in particular Papa Assad who used to crush his opposition with artillery and tanks. Too bad that the son is paying for the crimes of his father. But yes, they were stupid/naive – whatever you want to call it, they shot themselves in the foot when they did that…
My hope, maybe a naive one, is that the threat to see Syrian turn into an ‘al-Qaedastan’ will convince the decent and patriotic opposition to protect their country first, and oppose the regime only after, in a second phase. From what I hear a lot of former opponents are now having second thoughts and some have even switched sides or militarily engaged the Wahabi crazies.
Fundamentally – Syria needs some type of “government of national salvation” lead by people who are first and foremost patriots.
As Robert says, civil wars are particularly vicious, but it is also a fact that in a civil war decent people can be found on both sides, just as much as vicious thugs can also be found on both sides. This is why these wars are both so bloody and so tragic.
May God have mercy on all Syrians and may He guide them towards some form of reconciliation.
Saker,
I will echo your demands to the folks back there on subtitles or simultaneous translation…
The speech was outstanding…
Lastly, I fully agree with the new comments above and beyond the earlier ones, and I am thrilled that people see through the ZIO machinations of the West…and many concentrate on the bigger picture…
Best,
Joe
Saker, there are a couple of channels which translate his speeches live, but you have to have your own satellite dish to access them. Press TV and Al Eteja English which is still in it’s trial broadcast period. I concur with the comments here, and find them to be a breath of fresh air while standing against what I often see as violent currents of close-mindedness, hatred and ignorance ….did anyone hear the remarks if Al Qarradawi during his visit to Gaza? Haniya referred to him as the Sheikh of the Arab Spring…What do you make of that?
Press TV usually broadcast his speech live with a pretty good translator … you can watch Press TV live on the web through their website…
Thanks Mari on the info abut Press Tv and the other channel….
Best,
Joe
You are welcome Joe…
Check out the following article from Al Akhbar, which gives an inside look at the paranoia, concerns, and positions of the Arab countries in the region that have been openly involved in the Syrian conflict:
Damascus Ready to Normalize Relations with Cairo: Time is on Our Side
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/damascus-ready-normalize-relations-cairo-time-our-side
I would appreciate input on this, as to what you think of the accuracy of its claims…
Mari,
Way too early to tell… The MB’s are notorious historically for double speak and outright lies as they go… I would not trust anything they say, until it’s signed sealed and delivered… They are still posturing for internal reasons in Egypt, because the situation there is pretty dire and getting worse by the day…
Best;
Joe
@Mari, Joe & Anonymous: I am aware of the Press TV translations. They quality is good, indeed. However:
a) Press TV does not always catch the full speech
b) Usually, some individuals post the speech if they could record the streaming
c) Sometimes those speeches are posted with a great deal of delay.
What there should be is:
a) ONE point of contact which provides these speeches.
b) The speeches should be available (translated and subtitled) in less than 24 hours.
c) There should be a repository of archived speeches available for download.
d) The videos should be available in mp4 format in at least 720p resolution.
Ideally, the speeches should be made available in English, Russian and Spanish.
Other than that, I am very happy that you guys are talking to each other in the comments section. I encourage all of you to use this space as a free “board” to exchange views, information and ideas. This was one of my hopes when I began this blog. Thanks!!
Cheers,
The Saker
just wanted to say hi . fatima
As regards Palestine slighty off topic but I think those advocating the one state solution need a visual symbol – a flag for the new state. The obvious design would be the Palestinian green white black tricolour with a red Star of David in the centre. If this went viral on the Internet it might help change the culture. Maybe you could put it on the blog Saker.
off topic i know , but i am wondering when is America going to encourage freedom and democracy in Qatar and saudi Arabia (the big players in the civil war in Syria ) After all there are no elections in both countries , no parliament , no constitution (all available in syria ) and the christians are better treaed in Syria . A poet is jailed for life for a poem in qatar , while thousands of saudis are in jail for simply signing a document that requested reforms . where is the State department for all this ?
Here is your righteous again leader sending messages ..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22494128
This is right after Erdogan gives the interview to to the Americans regarding the Chemical use.
Anyone ?
At the same time I have to say it could be the desperate Americans, and it has been many times Americans and Brits who have been literally pulling the trigger for the so called terrorist attacks in Iraq..
The previous comment also belongs to me also not to confuse anyone..
@Fatima: Greetings Fatima! Long time no see, thanks for dropping by, as it is always a pleasure to hear from you. God’s blessings on you and your family.
@Anonymous05:37:Here is your righteous again leader sending messages ..
I have no other leader than Christ, so I am not sure of whom you are referring to.
As for Erdogan, he is basically doing Israel’s bidding, and I would expect no less from this hypocrite. As for the bombing, just think cui bono and I think that the answer is pretty darn obvious.
Besides, the Turkish border is 100$ run and controlled by the Turkish and NATO security services and its ludicrous to think that the Syrians would even try to send somebody in there to place a bomb. It would be far easier to strike anywhere else in Turkey (or abroad) EXCEPT in this zone. Now, ask yourself this: for whom would it be really EASY to place a bomb there?
QED…
I agree on the israeli and erdogan part as he is for sale anytime and for not much.. And for the assad part if one thinks a little above the lines of media it is obvious that he is not part of it. But assad under different circumstances would not be different
Given the way Turkey has treated the Kurds I doubt that zone will be secure for some time to come.
More poetic licence
CCCP – SSSR
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
Concerned Compassionate Commonwealth Protectors.
Kyrie Eleison.