So the Turks have crossed into Syria. This everybody agrees upon. What remains completely obscure are the real goals of this operation.
I won’t give the answer here simply because I don’t have it. But let me share a few pointers nonetheless.
- Russian sources report that such an operation would have been unthinkable without a tacit agreement from Russia and Iran.
- Russia’s reaction has been a tepid “concern” while off the record the Russians seemed to be perfectly aware of what is taking place.
- Turkish F-16 have been flying close-air support for the Turkish ground forces.
- US A-10s have been seen operating south of the Turkish forces.
- Absolutely nobody has expressed any concern about the Russian air defenses or interceptors, least of all the Turks
- The US has tried to declare a mini no-fly zone over its forces operating in northern Syria; objections have been tepid again
- At the same time, the US appears to look away from the fact that the prime target of the Turkish operation are the US’ Kurdish allies
- Daesh forces seem to have abandoned Jarablus are now on the run
I might be mistaken here, but I get the strong feeling that the Syrians are not really upset by this Turkish operation and that there are many indirect indicators that Russia, Iran and the USA might well all have given their green light to the Turks. If so, then the main victim of this will be the Kurds who will not be able to create a unitary Kurdish zone of control in northern Syria.
If that is indeed the goal of the Turkish operation, then all the panic about a “Turkish invasion” are premature.
Let’s give it all 48 hours and see what happens, okay?
The Saker
Was listening to american zio-gay radio today (unfortunately circumstance beyond my control) and no mention of Syria.
USA has said that he kurds must not expand anymore or lose USA support. Seems kurds have no support at all.
“U.S. Backs Turkey Call for Kurds to Retreat East of Euphrates”
“We’ve made it absolutely clear” to the YPG that “they must move back across the river,” Biden said. “They cannot — will not — under any circumstance get American support if they do not keep that commitment.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-24/u-s-backs-turkey-call-for-kurds-to-retreat-east-of-euphrates
“let’s wait and see…said the blind, and hitting the wall, he thought, that’s the end of world”. This an old saying from the old times, still actual in these days.
Hi saker I have a couple of questions
Questionq1:
The U.S. was supporting the establishment of a Kurdish zone/ state. The SDF were supported by the usa to take manbij.what has changed for the usa to throw the Kurds under the bus?
Question2.
The issue if the Kurds is of concern to Turkey, Syria, and Iran who have populations they would not like to see fir a state out of their countries – why would the Kurdish issue be of concern to Russia?
Thank you
I wonder if US abandon the kurds to please Turkey.
I guess nobody cares about the kurds, not USA, not Russia, not Syria and certainly not Turkey. The kurds have no friends.
If this doesn’t wake the Kurds up,nothing will. The “only” intelligent move on their part would be to ally with the Syrian government and get some sort of regional autonomy for their region in a unified Syria. That is also what those in Iraq would be smart to do. If they can’t see that the US only uses them,then dumps them when not needed. Then there is no saving them.The US encouraged them to rise against Saddam in the 1980’s-90’s,and watched as they were slaughtered. Turkey as a NATO member is “far” more important to the US than any Kurds are. And if forced to choose the US will pick Turkey at all times.And then stand by while the Turks slaughter them .How they can’t see that is beyond my understanding.
There is a famous American cartoon routine, starring a little girl named Lucy and a little boy named Charlie Brown. Lucy offers to hold an American football so Charlie Brown can kick it. Only, right when Charlie Brown gets a running start up to the ball, Lucy pulls the ball away and Charlie Brown ends up flat on his rear end. Its a running gag. It happens over and over and over. Lucy always talks Charlie Brown into believing that it will be different this time, but every time she pulls the ball away and Charlie Brown goes splat.
I wonder if anyone has ever show those cartoons to the Kurds?
I have always found that wisdom is found in waiting for the events to unfold a bit, instead of second guessing what the future holds. In view of that, your writings on this site, as well as those of other contributors, have greatly aided me in gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the international and geopolitical scene.
Considering the Syrian government was the only possible ally the Syrian Kurds had in the world as both have the same enemies – that the Kurd heirachy declared war on the Syrian government is something along the lines of suicide or perhaps self inflicted genocide. No doubt the decision by the Kurds to declare war on the Syrian government was made with the US leading from behind
I think that the Kurdish leadership is deeply infiltrated by Israel. Same goes for the Hamas in the occupied territories. So, there is no real hope for Kurds because like for the palestinians, their leadership is totally taken over. This is why they are such convenient scapegoat. Their best hope is to stop fighting and abandon their coward leaders.
Unfortunately, it is easier said than done. Some people might not have the means to go live elsewhere. So, they have to play to the tune of the empire.
I hope no ones get offended by my comment. I am trying to find answers also. Why would anyone commit suicide unless they were forced to do so by their corrupt leaders?
I agree, Kurdistan has been a Zionist project for a decade or more…
The US was using the Kurds as proxy fighters in Syria, but now that the US is having problems with Turkey and needs to get back on its good side, the US will throw the Kurds under the bus.
Same ol same old.
kurds played a big role in damaging the central syrian government. during the time when the syrian government needed all the help from its internal and external allies, kurds where messing around by playing both sides against each other, forging alliances with the opposition, then farting about federalism and so forth. backstabbing treacherous landgrabbers that’s what kurds are known for.
Since when did expressing the right to self determination make the kurds backstabbing treacherous landgrabbers. Who are they stabbing in the back exactly? Their oppresors? Good. That’s the way to deal with tyranny.
According the NY Times one rebel died and zero Turkish soldiers. That suggests that ISIS withdrew almost without a fight.
So maybe ISIS isn’t that unhappy either with the Turkish actions. For ISIS the main nightmare was that the Kurds might cut their territory in two and cut their supply lines from Turkey. By setting a clear Western limit to the Kurdish expansion Turkey (and its vasal the US) have prevented that scenario. See also the recent ISIS attacks on Kuweires – that is the government position that most likely would connect with the Kurds.
I am a bit skeptical about all that noise about a Kurdish state and the Kurds wanting to connect with Afrin. The area in between is too Arab and too big for such a scenario to be credible.
As for Russia, I am wondering whether Putin has been taken for a ride by Erdogan. All those recent concessions may just have been empty promises of which the only purpose was to get Russian approval for this operation. The recent cordial meeting with Biden gives food for thought.
I thing Putin got the integrity of Syrian State in exchange (no Kurds state etc).
When ISIS had objected they certainly would have put up a fight. Sending a few body bags back to Ankara would greatly help to reduce the Turkish eagerness to advance further. That ISIS didn’t take that trouble suggests that they didn’t see a need and that suggests that there was some kind of agreement.
Regarding the meeting of putin and erdogan – Nothing was agreed at the meeting.
If you read Alexander Mecourus account of the meeting. A timeline from 2016 – 2019 to discuss things was established.
There is no trust between Russia and Turkey.
Erdogan made a trip to Russia to make Biden make a trip to Turkey.
R
More likely Erdogan went to St. Petersburg to get US to stop supporting the Kurds, to transfer more military technology,and to hand over Gulen. Playing “superpowers” against each other. Lots of that going around these days.
The rumor that Russia warned Erdogan of the coup, and spared his life, may also be true. If that is the case, and Erdogan appearing to bow to Putin in St. Petersburg suggests it is, I think we will see a continued improvement.
Turkey at least is no longer putting all its eggs in the NATO basket.
OK. then let’s take a look at the European MSM TV channels : the say, that the Turks have went on offensive against ISIL with the aerial cover of US led coalition and with the help of “moderate rebels”. The question is as usual : who are those moderate rebels ? Maybe that’s why the ISIS have lost just a few man. Also the main target for the Turks, are the Kurds, as usual also.
Still. A splendid treachery over the Kurds. Those guys have been fighting hard against ISIS psychos, and here comes their reward.
Indeed. This only means one thing: contrary to popular beliefs fighting ISIS is not a US priority. And why should it be considering they facilitated its birth. They threw the kurds under the bus before and will do so again.
How do you know that it is a treachery? US will continue to support them East of Euphrates, how do you know US ever promised them more?
Kurds are fighting ISIS not out of some noble, altruistic cause, but, just like Alawiates, are fighting for their own survival and freedom. That doesn’t mean they get to take over huge chunks of Syria. Kurds burned their good grace points when they attacked Syrian allied forces in Hasaka, who were their best ally in the area. Huge mistake. Huge.
I can understand Kurdish desire for a homeland, they’ve been screwed for centuries, still, stabbing your only friend in the back is not the likely way to achieve your goals.
Oh God I hope you are right, Saker. Feels right. Thank you Dear man.
I am so worried about my homeland.
Long Live Syria.
As Mark Sleboda (Facebook) reads it:
(quote)
US-backed Turkish invasion of #Syria w proxies in tow moves on now further into Syria to seize Al-Bab in a landgrab to create Erdogan’s (and the US neocon Brookings Institute’s) long desired jihadi “safe haven”/”no fly zone” for #AlQaeda & friends to operate and stage from with impunity from Russian and Syrian airstrikes.
– Al-Bab is a “backdoor” on key routes south to #Aleppo from Turkish border
– Turkish supplies for the Islamic Army of Conquest attacks offensive in South Aleppo and Latakia: arms, ammo, supplies, even artillery, tanks have been reported as flowing like water over the Turkish border
– Turkey is obviously not coordinating its incursion with Syrian govt who condemns it as a violation of their sovereignty. Kremlin’s impotent calls for Turkey to coordinate with Damascus while waving the old Geneva communique have been completely ignored.
– Both the Turkish and FSA flags, (not the Syrian flag), were raised over “liberated” #Jarablus
– Securing the Jarablus corridor from a Westward YPG advance in attempt to link their “cantons” East and West along the Turkish border prevents supply lines to “Syran rebels” from Turkey from being cut.
-Turkey’s incursion was backed by US aircover, drones, and embedded special forces per the WSJ. These were there largely to prevent Russia and Syria from even thinking about taking action against the invading forces.
– Turkey is moving into Syria not just with its own military, but with thousands of “rebel opposition groups” including US-backed FSA brigades allied with #AlQaeda/Nusra/Sham and the child head-chopping Al-Zinki who are reported to form the vanguard. Syrian territory is outright being turned over to them by the Turkish military, simply exchanging control from one group of terrorist jihadis (ISIS) to others who are more media acceptable and more direct proxies of the Erdogan regime, US, Saudi & Qatar.
– That said, #ISIS has not resisted the Turkish advance at all – simply “melting away” (or exchanging one set of uniforms for another?). No stay-behinds, no suicide bombers, no IEDS, nothing. No fighting. Zero casualties. Turkish and “Syrian rebel” forces literally strolled in to Jarablus taking selfies and posing for cameras. Tag-team turnover.
– The Kurdish YPG/SDF have proven that they have become nothing but lackspittle currs for US, despite being betrayed, dutifully responding to the leash and withdrawing from Manbij which they bled for, and all positions East of the Euphrates on Biden’s orders as he staged a press conference in Ankara with Erdogan. They have served their part in providing another layer of pretext for Turkey to invade Syria.
What I see is that Turkey is outmaneuvering for now Russia, USA and EU ( which is held hostage to migrant threat).
Siria will not be again a one country, neither the rest of the region will be the same. A re-arrangement of the borders is in motion once again and again without a single concern about the inhabitants of the region, just like before. Cynical.
R
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2016/08/25/obama-staerkt-erdogan-kurden-in-syrien-bekommen-keinen-staat/
Obama strengthens Erdogan: Kurds in Syria do not get any state of the United States and Turkey have on Wednesday a certain soft position on the future of the Kurds are taken: the United States reject a Kurdish secession of Syria. This increases the chances of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. With this solution could also be made of the Russians.
On Wednesday, the US Vice President Joe Biden said during his visit to Turkey that Turkey as an important U.S. ally in the fight against the terrorist militia ISIS the withdrawal of the kurdish militias of the YPG in direction east of the euphrates calls. This requirement had the Kurds to follow. “We have the Kurdish forces said that they are over the river must withdraw. You will and can no US support, if you fail to fulfill this obligation.
“On Wednesday, the US Vice President Joe Biden said during his visit to Turkey that Turkey as an important U.S. ally in the fight against the terrorist militia ISIS /…/”
This piece of Certified Human Garbage honoured the Swedes by paying a visit to Stockholm today. Sweden for its part would do its duty as an “important” US ally by sabotaging NordStream 2. No doubt Biden raises a most valid point here considering his relations with the thieving Ukronazis.
” Certified Human Garbage ” liked that !
Yes, well said. Payback that I doubt the Kurds were expecting. But still must watch Hassakah…
This seems to be the construction of the “safe-no fly zone” long sought by the American led coalition.
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.ca/2016/08/turkey-invades-northern-syria-truth-of.html#more
https://www.newcoldwar.org/turkish-army-refrains-from-attacking-isis-while-villages-handed-over-to-turkey-supported-gangs-in-and-around-jarablus-syria/
With respect to the landdestroyer blogspot blog, recounting the false flag Turkey had discussed to enable its mobilization into Syria in 2014 (and which was recorded on tape) is interesting.
It occurs to me that the latest “suicide bombing” in Gaziantep, which has been attributed to ISIS but for which no suicide bomber had been identified and for which ISIS has not claimed responsibility, was an attack against Kurds. A group which Erdogan would seem to have no problem sacrificing “for the greater good” (and indeed the target may have been selected as having been of PKK militants, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak).
As always, impossible to know what’s really going on, despite that numbers of pundits claim to have all the answers. In any case, a dangerous situation.
In my view Turkey, Syria and Russia are OK with this. It looks like the US had conned the Kurds into going for a violent solution to the political problem of the Kurds, rather than a peaceful solution raised a while back. The US underestimated Turkey’s red line about the Kurds (no surprise as the US can’t see anyone else’s problems and interests). They were they faced with a choice – sell out the Kurds or lose Turkey sooner rather than later. I would be surprised if the US military didn’t read the riot act to the political airheads running the US – do not lose Incirlik. The Kurds have learnt that the US cannot be trusted, which will temper their ambitions. If they persist, then the Kurdish enclave in north Aleppo is vulnerable. Turkey has gained some breathing space, and it too will be aware that the US will sell out its ‘allies’ at the drop of a hat.
So the US has shot itself in both feet over this.
I do not have the connections, the insight or the ability to articulate which Saker does. I did, however, come to a similar conclusion that Saker has. I simply reasoned that the Russians and the Syrians know that these territories which the Turks are now entering and the territory the U.S. government is claiming to be its sandbox have no importance until and unless Aleppo and Raqqa are secured by the Syrian forces. If those two strategic places are not secured, then the rest is meaningless. If they are secured, the the rest can be the subject of negotiations. If Turkey and the U.S. betray the Syrian Kurds, then President Assad’s hand is strengthened with them. He can position himself to be their champion if negotiations come about.
Who the hell desires a ”Durand Line ” between Turkey and Syria .
There’s an article in Sputnik about IS fighters fleeing or retreating to Aleppo as a result of Turkish action in Jarablus. Sitting ducks in Aleppo, a decisive and determinative blow to the war in Syria.
Turkey Invades Northern Syria — Truth of Turkish “Coup” Revealed?
landdestroyer.blogspot.mx/2016/08/turkey-invades-northern-syria-truth-of.html
This Turkish incursion would have been difficult (not without serious consequences) if Turkey were not to mend relations with Russia/Syria. So, I feel that this is one of the major reasons why Turkey re-established its relations with Russia. So, the Zionists finally got their troops inside Syria. Russia should be ready for any possibility in Syria now.
Yeah, obviously this move by Turkey was tacitly agreed to by everyone, including ISIS. Everyone seems to be trying to play all the other sides off against each other, except for Syria, which does what Russia tells it to do at this point. So many camel’s noses are under the tent …
Basically, the carve-up of Syria has now officially begun. I guess that’s not an invasion, though, since the victim is now too weak to even protest.
There are now so many military forces in tiny Syria it’s impossible to keep track. officially we have Iranian, Russian, Turkish, British, Chinese, French. Unofficially we have many more. And those are just the states acting directly, if you include indirect proxy forces.
I can’t remember such a clusterf* powder keg. Not even the Spanish Civil War was this convoluted.
Given what’s happening in Syria, MENA generally and the S. China Sea, I would be amazed if WW III does not break out in the next few years.
Prior to this invasion turkish intelligence was in Damascus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFGYH2tvGlc
Note that in view of the Turkish invasion at Jarabulus the Kurd attack in Hasakah looks plain foolish. No matter how they might detest them the presence of the legal Syrian government served as a protection against Turkish aggression
One possibility of course is that the Turk attack has been agreed by Syria, Iran (and extension Russia). All three’s interest is to not see a Kurdish state form up. A part of this involves taking the border zone to prevent the cantons from joining. I have not seen any objections from any of these parties. Why USA is supporting Turkey remains unknown, but it’s possible Pentagon is panicking and trying to regain trust. Of course this involved throwing the kurds under the bus – again. There’s an old saying – bowing to one direction means showing ones ass to the other direction. Eventually something will backfire with the US policy of trying to please everyone. They will be weighing which of the worse options is cheaper and to me it clearly would be to sooth Erdogan, which is why they are doing what they’re doing right now. Time will tell how well this works out, but depending on whether they tried to kill him or not it might already be resolved.
Hi Saker,
I read this comment ”Chronology work of Anatoly Fomenko and Gleb Nosovskiy, which shows Islam and Orthodox Christianity were apparently on the same team back in the days of the Czars.”
”According to mainstream historians, Orthodox Russia has always been enemies with Muslim Turkey and Persia, however, Fomenko’s examination of Czar-era military artifacts shows Arabic text alongside Cyrillic, forged right into their weapons and armor!! So a Russia-Turkey friendship is most likely a return to an old friend, not to an old enemy. ”
How true is this? thank you
The Turkish economy is hurting badly due to Russian sanctions. The Turks want the Russians to lift the sanctions and have apologized for shooting down the Russian plane. Turkey knows that the USA is responsible for the failed coup attempt, and that it has Russia to thank for warning Turkey in advance of said coup. The USA does not like Turkey drawing closer to Russia. Turkey might even leave NATO. Something must be done by the USA to win back the Turks: Bomb the Kurds until those people are no longer a threat to Turkish sovereignty.
It is sad that the Kurds never united with Assad against ISIS. They have no friends. As a people, they are done.
So many bizarre thing going on, as expected one betraying the other then allying..in the mean time depopulation taking place in Syria. Let us see:
What came of Turkey all of the sudden seeking badly Russia’s pardon on the downing of Russia’s jet and killing the pilot?
Immediately after this rhetoric, coup attempt takes place most likely orchestrated by Erdegon. Probably to get rid of any opposition from Erdgon’s tight rule? Why? Could this orchestration be supported by the US?
Erdegon seemed to pledge allegiance with Russia, China and Iran. Is it realistic for Turkey to breakaway from NATO and US? Turkey seems to be the make and break, the most important for both the West and East. Those who win the heart of Turkey might likely be the winner of the ME war. Of course, Turkey has its own agenda of the second Ottoman and will work with any country that helps it do that. Since the US has no problem of betrayals, it is most likely they have won the heart and mind of Turkey. Indeed, that will remain to be seen.
We now hear of Turkey invading Syria. Did they get the approval of the East or West? My thinking is the East after recent meetings of Erdegon with Putin? Since the US often times acts like to be involved as influencer in world issues, it is possible the US pretending to approve the invasion. But wait, the US also announced it has invaded Syria too and ordered for no-fly zone! Could this be coordinated with Turkey…or not? The US declared this either to protect the Kurds or by not acting against Turkey’s invasion, has betrayed the Kurds.
So much confusion with what is happening in Syria to those of us who are not party of and spectators. We are being tortured with so much curiosity in the world’s dangerous events taking place. Alas!
Zula,
Turkish downing of russian bomber? you mean NATO’s downing … to sabotage/prevent any future alliance between the two countries.