The inauguration of TAPI – the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline – signals Kabul is on-board with the grand project of Eurasian integration
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
One of the top roller-coaster sagas in what, some years ago, I christened Pipelineistan, has yielded a definitive twist.
The US$8 billion,1,814-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI) was officially inaugurated on Friday, in full pomp, and with proceedings broadcast live on Afghan TV, on the Turkmen-Afghan border close to Herat.
Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and India’s Minister of State for External Affairs M.J. Akbar.
Assuming there are no major glitches – and that’s a major “if” – TAPI should, in theory, be finished by 2020. So far, though, endless deadlines have come and gone.
TAPI simply cannot exist without Taliban approval. According to a statement by Taliban spokesman Qari Mohammad Yusuf Ahmadi, “the Islamic Emirate views this project as an important element of the country’s economic infrastructure and believes its proper implementation will benefit the Afghan people. We announce our cooperation in providing security for the project in areas under our control.”
Another Taliban faction, led by Mullah Mohammad Rasool, also let it be known, via spokesman Mullah Abdul Manan Niazi, that, “we will not allow any group or state to disrupt this project.”
All of the above is code for the Taliban getting their cut – which happens to have been the key point of contention ever since the first Clinton administration decided the then rulers of Afghanistan were worth doing business with.
So when spokesman Ahmadi claims TAPI was initially planned when the Taliban were in power in Kabul from 1996 to 2001, he’s correct. The Taliban were wined and dined in Houston in 1997, as I reported for Asia Times, but nothing came out of it. The haggling was all about transit fees.
For Kabul, the game from now on is about providing adequate security – from construction to operation. After all, this is a major job-creating project bound to involve 30,000 Afghan workers and yield US$500 million annually for Kabul in transit rights.
Rumors swirled in Herat about a bunch of unidentified jihadis, allegedly trained in Iran, planning to attack the inauguration ceremony. There has been no confirmation whatsoever that this is the case – either from Afghan or Iranian sources. Even President Ghani rejected the outlandish idea that Tehran would sabotage TAPI.
The rumors should be traced to a Pipelineistan mini-Cold War between TAPI and IPI – the competing Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, which, under pressure from the Bush and Obama administrations, was eventually reduced to IP.
A win-win situation
TAPI is a very good deal for Ashgabat – as it allows Turkmenistan finally to diversify its export markets instead of relying entirely on its major customer China. Gurbanguly, moreover, wants to turn TAPI into an energy/IT/connectivity corridor.
Washington supports TAPI – and not IPI/IP – because its main financial source is the Japan-led Asian Development Bank (ADB), and because it would be a key stabilizing factor uniting Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
From Islamabad’s point of view, both TAPI and IP are very much needed. TAPI will meet at least 20% of Pakistan’s natural gas requirements and 10% of its energy needs.
In economic and geopolitical terms, a steel umbilical cord running along the intersection of Central and South Asia can only be a win-win.
What we have here is a major upward twist in terms of Eurasian integration. The in-progress Turkmenistan energy corridor will eventually link with one of the major Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), sharply increasing Central Asian connectivity.
Even New Delhi, despite its immense reservations regarding CPEC, is now hailing TAPI, via Minister Akbar, as “a symbol of our goals” and “a new page in co-operation” between the four nations.
Additionally, TAPI adds to India’s connectivity with Central Asia, via Afghanistan, as embodied in New Delhi’s investment in Chabahar port in Iran.
Ghani, for his part, said: “We hope our next generation will see this pipeline as the foundation of a joint position in our region which is aimed at improving our economy, providing jobs and increasing our security, all in our fight against extremists.”
But the key piece of the puzzle is his public recognition that Afghanistan, slowly but surely, may now be positioning itself – finally – as a connector between Central Asia and South Asia.
The next piece will come from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – with Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran making sure the war in Afghanistan is over for good.
As Pepe tells it, it sounds almost too good to be true. Maybe the world has turned me automatically cynical and suspicious, but where is the fly in this ointment?
Yep, me to but China has been working on this plan for over 20yrs and everyone sees it a plus for their countries. When India signs on and they will Amerika loses more face in the region. That’s not a bad thing.
If the “ointment” allows the disparate tribes and ethnicities along the belts, pipelines, and roads to live their lives as they choose while benefitting from such………then I’m all for it. China has acted as a moderating force in the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar’s Rhakine state using the OBOR “carrot”, of I believe, a rail line. The U.S. is being dragged into the multi-polar world kicking and screaming but will eventually have to “eat the spinach”.
Oligarchs, Masons and Intel — all workin’ together.
When pollsters demonstrate enough sheeple recognize unipolar NWO fascism is already here they’ll bedazzle us with another 9/11.
10 billion channels of disinformation and you can’t find 3 who’ll tell ya the truth.
This game is rigged I’m afraid. Be glad you don’t live in suburban Kandahar, least not yet.
Sea Power is fading. Nothing can change this fact. The Anglo sea power has always tried make conflicts in Afganistan to divide and rule Eurasian societies, it has to do this if it is to maintain its power, the problem for them now is that other countries wont fall for it this time. To defeat anglo domination the Chinese and Russians must work closely. However China and Russia are profoundly different societies. China the massive economic rival to USA , just wants trade with anyone and everyone because they love Profit and the act of making money, China lacks the clear spiritual mission of Russia. The Chinese tendency to love money, gambling and trade almost as God, is very similar to the Anglo themselves. They must realise all this trade and expansion of foreign capital without a ideology like Orthdoxy or Islam is leading them on the first steps to the post modern Empire. Love of Money is a sin which is harmful to all humans, we must make no mistake. Gogol said the Russians of Donbass in those times hated money and even touching it, and groups of Armenians, Jews, Tatars and westerners had to do financial tasks instead. The idea of making money from money, speculating, etc is completely alien to Russia. Holy Russia must steer China away from the western mentality.
Have to disagree with this as a realistic development. India relying on Pakistan’s goodwill is a recipe for ruin, considering the amount of terrorism said country sponsors in regards to India.
Better for India to deal directly Iran and access central Asia that way.
I suspect we will get India bashing as is usual on these posts. It’s a shame as people do not realise that south, southeast and East Asia are together the centre of the world trade and culture, historically and soon-to-be again. If India can get away from pro American and Isr leaders the process will move forward faster.
But one has to remember that a country has to look out for its own interests, just as Russia and China do.
Another round of sanctions on Iran would force India to look for another energy supplier. Plus any unstability in iran (like a tag team american-israeli-NATO attack) would cost india if it relies on iran alone.
India is looking for selling its goods in central asia probably in exchange of natural raw materials like gas and precious metals.
Don’t club south asia, south east asia with east asia.
China and South Korea can be called centres of world trade, don’t take their achievement for yourselves.
And centre of world trade and culture?
As for south asia, two are muslim majority nations (bangladesh and pakistan) and Maldives is muslim.
In south east asia, philipines is christian, indonesia and Brunei are muslim, malayasia is majority Muslim.
East asia does have Buddhist influence but they have their own local religions (Shinto and Confucianism). China and north korea are atheist communist, south korea is heavily westernized. China is alarmed by the spread of Christianity and has already placed certain curbs on christians and muslims.
If they were centre of world culture then why did they reject their local culture for foreign culture?
Historically speaking, every continent has its own culture. As for soon-be-again, i doubt that.
I remember that the Taliban initially promised to protect the bamiyan buddha statues but later blew it.
India appears to be diversifying its energy sources as opposed to its reliance earlier on Saudis and Iranians. It has also started importing crude oil from the USA.
India and Pakistan are in a state of war just like Russia and USA are in. Won’t Pakistan have an upper hand in case of conflict with India since it could cut the supply?
Lol, the fly is ali baba and his forty mountain thieves.
These peeps have never and will never be anything, but bandits…not that I blame them for it.
Bless their thieving, looting and murderous souls, there will never be peace in the mountains.
Now, please, try and protect a 1400 mile pipeline from all the explosives available in the ‘stans…or try to controll the hash and opium…
Under Taliban, opium plantations almost disappeared. Warlords have been corrupted by the US control of the market.