By Aram Mirzaei for the Saker blog
It’s been 8 weeks since Turkey together with its jihadist forces launched operation Olive Branch to clear the Afrin region of US-backed Kurdish militias (YPG). During these weeks, YPG forces have been taking a beating, losing well over 70 % their territory, including Afrin city itself.
It should hardly come as a surprise to anyone who has been following the situation that the Turkish backed jihadists would eventually capture the region. The Turkish Air force has been flying freely over the skies of northern Aleppo without Washington, YPG’s benefactor uttering a single word, despite being a close NATO ally with Ankara. This says a lot about who Washington cares for in Syria.
For some reason, the YPG leadership keeps counting on Washington to help them, despite Washington being a close NATO ally of Ankara’s. Last month, on several occasions, Damascus offered the YPG terms for the entry of Syrian government troops into Afrin, to act as a guarantee against Turkish aggression. These attempts to reconcile would all eventually fail to materialize in anything else than the entry of a few pro-government paramilitary units. According to reports, Damascus had demanded that the YPG hand over their heavy weaponry so that Syrian government troops could enter and re-establish security over the region, this was however denied by the YPG leadership, citing that their own commitment to the fight would suffice to beat back the Turkish-backed forces.
Over the weeks as the YPG has been losing ground to the Turkish-led jihadist advance, YPG-linked social media accounts have somehow shifted the blame onto Russia for these events. According to these accounts, Turkey only began its aggression after receiving a “green light” from Russia. This contradicts the fact that Turkey is an ally, or vassal of Washington’s if you will, and that Turkey’s aggression on Afrin has NATO’s “full support.”
The Syrian Kurdish leadership, following an age old tradition, had just like Masoud Barzani’s KRG placed their hope on the “International Community’s” good will to protect them. Once again, the “international community” failed them, because they have failed to analyse the political realities of the region and once again, incompetence among Kurdish leaders has led to this situation where young Kurdish men and women have been used as tools and sacrificed for nothing. But unfortunately, blaming Russia seems to be a syndrome for anyone who is allied with Washington.
58 days into Operation Olive Branch, Afrin city fell to the Turkish-backed jihadists without any kind of resistance. Pictures of the Jihadist forces roaming the streets of Afrin city, smashing cultural monuments deemed “un-Islamic”, while raising the Turkish flag on top of administrative buildings have circulated on various social media platforms. Looting will probably also take place, just like they looted Aleppo for Ankara’s benefit.
This can’t be deemed anything but a tragedy for the civilians who have fled in the hundreds of thousands to nearby government controlled areas. What is even more tragic is that the YPG leadership would rather hand over Afrin city to Jihadists without a fight, than handing over control to Damascus, the rightful sovereign of this land. This can only mean that Washington had a say in this disastrous YPG decision, as Washington is the only one who benefits from this.
In any case, Kurdish stubbornness has struck again and shattered the hopes of a people once more.
One has to puts aside the erroneous belief that the Kurdish feudal lords actually care about a Unifying Kurdish National Project.
It is obvious that the Kurdish Lords have agreed to carve out their fiefdom in NE-Syria, North of Euphrates and compromised to allow Afrin to fall in the laps of Sultan Erdogan.
US has achieved a major coup. Now two sections of Syria are blocked by two different USRaeli allies. On the one hand, it gave it’s ally to the North Turkey, what they demanded, namely an end to a VIABLE Kurdish entity with independent access to the world market. On the other hand, in the East, it has been able to quell the struggle between YPG and Turkish Army/FSA. Thus allowing the former to concentrate on consolidating its hold East of Euphrates and creating a defacto partition. Now, the YPG is even more of a lapdog for USRaelas their very survival depends on it.
Good luck trying to get them out of there.
I hate to say it but my thoughts exactly. US has not just achieved one major coup but TWO:
1. Turkey, a country that is energy poor and dependent on Iran and Russia for its energy, has grabbed the oilfields in northern Syria as their own. The US must be quite happy that a NATO ally will now become less dependent on Russian and Iranian oil.
2. If the strategic endgame/goal of the US is the partition of Syria (and recreate the borders of King Solomon’s Israel in order to allow the zionists to receive their messiah or whatever other reason they have..), then I fear this is the first step. At least the Kurds, even though they are nomads, are a constituent people of Syria, and probably could have been coaxed into to a unification deal (with autonomy etc.) But with Turkey in the picture, I don’t see that happening now. Unification of Syria is now looking less likely than before..another win for US.
@Serbian girl
“Turkey, a country that is energy poor and dependent on Iran and Russia for its energy, has grabbed the oilfields in northern Syria as their own. ”
What oilfields in northern Syria?!! The closest oilfields are south of Raqqah in government hands and the only oilfields not in government hands are east of the Euphrates controlled by SDF (Kurds).
Map of Syrian Civil War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Syrian_Civil_War_map.svg
Northern Syria, east of the Euphrates. Kurdish oil was traded and sold in Turkey as “Turkish” oil.
(This trade was with IS and has probably stopped with Kurds..?)
After this victory in Afrin, what would stop Turkey from going after other Kurdish-held areas? They need the oil… The point I was trying to make is that both US and Turkey have a strong incentive for the partition of Syria for different reasons.
There are indeed a few Oil fields in the Afrin region, relatively small compared to the other ones in the east but still there is.
It should be taken in to consideration that Kurds from the ethnic point of view are a mixture of Turks and Persians, speaking a Persian/Turkish language, with Persian being more pronounced. The Kurds never in their history had a homeland of their own, with Kurdistan being their irrational dream. Kurds are former nomads, moving from region to region. They are to be found in Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Historically and legally they cannot claim a single square mile of either Iraq and Syria. However, they played on the US card, hoping to grab Iraqi and Syrian oilfields. Very foolish. They made enemies of both Iraq and Syria, while the US double crossed them during the Turkish invasion of northern Syria. Besides foolishly allying themselves with the US, they even more foolishly declined President Assads offer of granting them cultural autonomy in Syria. Now they are looking into total defeat, with the Turkish Army before them and the Syrian military behind them.
“It should be taken in to consideration that Kurds from the ethnic point of view are a mixture of Turks and Persians, speaking a Persian/Turkish language, with Persian being more pronounced. ”
Kurds are of Iranian stock, they speak a West-Iranian dialect, they are Iranians who separated from the main body 800 years ago and developed several local dialects (Kurmanji, Sorani, Zazaki, Gorani), Iran’s conversion to Shiaism 500 years ago drove a deeper wedge between the two groups and helped the ethnogenesis (creations of an ethnicity) of the Kurds.
ALL attempts at dating the Kurds older than that is nothing but picking names from the ancient records that sounds similar to Kurd and then claiming that’s a record of Kurds. Arab sources in the Islamic period were quite extensive and never mentions “Kurds” as a separate ethnicity from the main Iranian people.
“The Kurds never in their history had a homeland of their own”
Of course the have a homeland, it’s called Iran and they are most welcome to leave their currents homes in Arabia and return to their homeland, ie IRAN.
“Kurds are former nomads, moving from region to region. ”
They were never nomads, they left Iran during the Mongol invasion and moved in a North-Western direction. Leaving your country because of devastating wars and settling somewhere else a nomad does NOT make you.
“They are to be found in Turkey, Iraq and Syria.”
You forget IRAN where the second largest Kurdish community lives and where they originally come from and share a common heritage with the people and even set their first independent political entity (back in 1944). Don’t confuse the current Republic of Iran with the historical borders of Iran 500 years ago, the current Iran has encroached on what is historically Arab lands grabbing both Arab & Kurdish population with it.
“Historically and legally they cannot claim a single square mile of either Iraq and Syria. ”
on this you are 100% right, they only settled on these lands by the Ottomans who used them as local enforcers back in 1700’s and 1800’s when Kurds were busy mascaraing everyone and grabbing their lands (so basically what they are doing now), ironic that the Turkish army is the now the one fighting them.
“However, they played on the US card, hoping to grab……. the Turkish Army before them and the Syrian military behind them.”
Agree 100% with your analysis of current events, but your historical background is very shaky and I don’t blame you. The whole history of Arabia, called the middle east by Westerners, is very jumbled as it suits the goals of the West that the whole is history is re-written to give no rights to Arabs while giving everyone else “mythical” rights based on “THOUSANDS” of years of imagined history.
Interesting details Sir. Would be very happy here if i was directed into the right place to learn more about Kurds.
Putting Syria together again; this is the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle. (I am assuming that the recently renewed threats of War from the rump in the South, and/or from NATZO warships steaming into the Med and the Red, are mere bluster). We shall now see the final test of Dr.Assad’s and President Putin’s strategic depth. Both Leaders have been criticised for years on this site and on SyrPer (notably by blogger Penny) for Leaving the North to the Last. So now we have Turkey sitting on big piece of North Syria and ready to Deal or Steal. Deal one: with Trump / Rothschild to explort the oil but the Land will not be called Eretz Kurdistan. Deal two, with Assad / Putin for return of the Land to Syria; but what can they offer? Or just sit tight and steal the Land back for the Ottoman Empire. A fine end-game on the Grand Chessboard.
Turkey and usa colaborating to some extent?
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803191062701256-syria-turkey-forces-withdrawal/?utm_source=m.facebook.com/&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=hana&utm_campaign=URL_shortening
Damascus again says Turkey must go
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803191062701256-syria-turkey-forces-withdrawal/?utm_source=m.facebook.com/&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=hana&utm_campaign=URL_shortening
Southfront updates
https://southfront.org/erdogan-vows-to-wipe-out-kurdish-from-manbij-qamishli-corridor-in-northern-syria/
https://southfront.org/map-update-military-situation-in-afrin-area-following-fall-of-afrin-to-turks/
There is something which few have observed, in this YPG Kurdish drama : the German factor. As many may know, there are large numbers of Kurds and Turks living in Germany for decades. The struggle between the Kurds and Turks in Turkey had it’s impact being felt in Germany for long ago. Germany needed to make a very delicate slalom between these two parties, sustaining the Turkish government against the Kurds and the Kurds against the Turks. With the outburst of the Syrian conflict, the Germans sent weapons and instructors to the newly formed YPG, later, with the coup against Erdogan, they retreated their military from Turkey. Now that the US is the boss – which has withdrawn her support from the YPG in Afrin, – the Germans made the same thing, news and reports from and with YPG fighters in any German TV channel are gone down the drain. What man can witness today, is that there are large demonstrations in Germany (Hamburg, Worms) made by Kurds against Turkey’s invasion of their land. The pressure on the German interior ministry is amplifying, as if they don’t have enough headaches with migrants and all kind of other police duties.
@ioan: “The pressure on the German interior ministry is amplifying, as if they don’t have enough headaches with migrants and all kind of other police duties.”
Seidene sorgen. Where do those migrants come from who are giving the poor German authorities their headache, who supports those terrorists who are burdening the poor German police with extra duties? War and destruction in Syria, driven by NATZO terrorists armed with weapons from NATZO countries — of which Germany is a leading member. The self pity of these hypocritical gangsters would be comic if it were not so disgusting.
Yes, it is but if you ask a German police officer he won’t tell you the reality just maybe in particular if he/she even dares to talk. Germany is not a free, independent country only in the facade. It was embarrassing for many to see German Leopard tanks with Turkish soldiers in the city of Afrin. The opposition has called for the stop of exporting weapons to Turkey ( that was allowed to be published and aired on TV, but the exports of submarines to Israel was not) Germany is under tremendous pressure from outside and from within, even if the eye doesn’t get it. The struggle for forming a government is the latest such proof. 91% of the Germans see Russia as a friendly country in a recent poll, also shown in the media, such opinion surveys have been banned or not shown in the near past.
Good to hear that 9 out of 10 Germans regard Russia as a friendly country. Wish someone would do a similar poll in Britain, we might be able to counter the anti-Russia propaganda barrage from the May regime.
https://southfront.org/overview-of-military-situation-in-afrin-on-march-19-2018-photos/
Plus this situation
I saw those pictures and am totally shocked at the level of destruction!
“What is even more tragic is that the YPG leadership would rather hand over Afrin city to Jihadists without a fight, than handing over control to Damascus, the rightful sovereign of this land.”
While I agree overall with this sentiment, it would seem to be a gross distortion to accuse the Kurds of handing over the city ‘without a fight’. The Kurds have obviously been putting up a fight. Even the headline says this loudly. It proclaims week 8 of the fight. Does the offer seriously believe it would have taken the Turks 8 weeks to advance a few tens of kilometers if they did not face any resistence?
If anything, the surprise in this situation is how much of an even fight the Kurds put up against a NATO power with one of the larger armies in the world.
In modern warfare, its often better to defend a city from outside the city, particularly if a side actually cares about the inhabitants of the city. The Kurds were obviously faced with a losing situation. Apparently they withdrew or at least shortened their lines instead of subjecting the resisdents of the city to a long an protracted but still losing fight within the city.
While I agree that if they’d been smart they’d have made a deal with Damascus, and while I agree that counting on untrustworthy Americans is unwise, I find it to be very unfair to accuse the Kurds of abandoning the city without a fight simply because they did not wish the destruction of the city.
Russian Military: Terrorists Planning Chemical Attack on E Ghouta Residents
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803191062707170-terrorists-ghouta-chemical-attack-plan/
“The Russian Center for Syrian reconciliation said Monday it had received information that terrorists in Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta were preparing a possible provocation involving the use of chemical warfare agents.
According to the center’s commander Maj. Gen. Yuri Yevtushenko, a resident of Eastern Ghouta called the center’s “hotline” on Monday to report that Nusra Front* militants had installed on a roof of a building and tested a turbine, placing tightly sealed containers with poisonous substances nearby.
“The caller said he believed that terrorists can use these preparations to disperse toxic substances in residential areas, which will lead to a large number of casualties among the local residents. The mass poisoning of civilians will be used to accuse the government troops of the use of chemical weapons against peaceful citizens,” Yevtushenko stressed.
“A total of 79,700 people, mostly children, have been evacuated from Eastern Ghouta with assistance of the Russian Center for Syrian reconciliation since the beginning of the humanitarian operation. Their lives are not in danger,” Maj. Gen. Yuri Yevtushenko said in a daily briefing.”
The Kurds have become an irritant to all the parties involved. If NATO cares so much about Kurds it can give some of their European lands to the Kurds to establish their own Kurdistan, maybe Israel can give them asylum or Trump can welcome them with open arms. The Kurds were on the Syrian partition project from day one, the US played all sides well. First NATO gave arms to the takfiri thugs to enable them to capture territories and also provided them with media, then it ran propaganda of ISIS atrocities to win western public in favor of invasion and arming the Kurds, the Kurds were then armed and the western media was all in praise for the fighting ability of kurdish females and the secularism of kurds. Now the US are making bases on the lands grabbed by the Kurds. The americans have always found some lapdog or another in the Syrian conflict. First it was Daesh, then the Kurds. If US dumps Kurds, then Erdogan’s Turkey will wag it’s tails to the empire.
The kurds must not be allowed to have their mythical Kurdistan else their will peddle the AngloZionist agenda and cause more destruction in the already chaotic middle east.
thanks Aram for update – its a very confusing situation – so what will happen ? I’ve heard that Turkey says they will never leave Afrin ? Is this in defiance of Assad ?
As per the “green light” Russia gave to Turks… there’s *some* half-truth in it. Russia withdrew all her personnel from Afrin and she didn’t even hint to the possibility of air denial against Turkey.
But the same did Damascus. And both Russia and Syria left open corridors for YPG’s (SDF’s) reinforcement. Reinforcement that actually never made it to Afrin if not too few too late – and anyways: troops, yes. Tanks and artillery, none.
This boils down to: was Afrin worth tossing a huge wrench at the Astana cogs? Plain answer is “No!”
Anyway, there DEFINITELY was a counterclockwise green light from Turkey to Russia/Syria. There was a “window of opportunity” during Olive Branch Op.
In the same 2-3 days the following happened:
– YPG handed down to Damascus all the Aleppo City neighborhoods they had been holding 2011-2018 (officially because the fighters had to rush to Afrin and so Sheik Maqsud and surrounding ‘hoods couldn’t be garrisoned)
– A contingent of SAA-aligned paramilitary (NDF) including tanks and artillery, entered Afrin (officially without been ordered so by SAA HQ’s)
– Russian MP was deployed to the crossing border between SAA and YPG territories (officially to protect humanitarian convoys)
– Turkish officials and news agencies started saying that they would be happy with the de facto buffer-zone on their border they had conquered up to that moment… PROVIDED that the rest of Afrin – and esp. the heavy weapons – were under SAA control (officially this was called “no longer pose a threat” and it all fitted the deliberately ambiguous catch-all formula of “handing Afrin back to the legitimate owners”)
All the parties were in wait mode, a deal was clearly been worked out. The most difficult part was saving Erdogan’s face, but the softening of Ankara’s bellicose narrative was clearly suggesting the kind of victory they wanted to bring home.
Rumors were that Afrin’s fighters were to melt into a “Kurdish NDF” with SAA commanders. Syrian NDF contingent was the logistical avant-garde of the SAA-proper officials soon to come. Russian policemen were there to handle the difficult interaction between SAA and FSA.
Everybody was going to get some advantage.
Except the Americans.
Suddenly YPG issued their crap of “Damascus OWES us unconditioned protection and Russia is a fake friend”. Turkey bombed NDF. Game over.
Don’t blame Russia, nor Syria and probably not even Turkey.
USA… they always screw things up even when they haven’t an agenda (something in the water, I guess) and here they badly wanted to screw EVERYthing up.
But YPG? They were partners in the deal, and the ones who did the last-minute betrayal (need to say “once again”?)
Their partners, hundreds of their soldiers, their heavy weapons, their civilians, their bargaining chips on possible Syrian parleys: they threw it all down the sewer.
They’d deserve the closing down of their “unofficial embassy” in Moscow. But Putin is too intelligent to do that, for how fully deserved the move would be.
I read somewhere that Erdogan said that Turkey would resettle the Syrian refugees currently in Turkey in the areas of Syria it had “freed” of Kurds. Is that still a possibility?
Maybe as a cover for a plan to flood those territories with Syrian refugees *of Turkmen ethnicity* [plus Turks of the same ethnicity], in order to shift the natives’ ethnical balance toward a Turkish-friendly majority, thus enhancing legitimacy for future territorial claims.
Turkey has a history. Not only Cyprus. She already “stole” Hatay-Alexandretta province from Syria (sort of a “Crimea/Kosovo event”, depending on which PoV you pick). Ottoman nostalgia is always in the cards, and Erdogan can be a subtle (aka “slimy”) player.
OTOH Kurds have been playing some soft ethnical cleanings in north-eastern Syria. You reap what you sow, I presume.
Syrian secular status/state is always on the losing end, unfortunately, as those “plans” create ethnic/sectarian wounds that leave scars upon healing – provided they heal at all.
This doesn’t make any sense. The SAA still hasn’t taken E. Ghouta from the Jihadis, so how could they protect the YPG from the Turks? I’m no military strategist, but it looks like the “resistance” is letting Turkey take a couple of pawns. Syria isn’t easy to defend, but it has always been a hornet’s nest for all who tread there. If the Turks think they can do to the Kurds what they did to the Armenians, they will rue the day. Neither Russia nor Iran will permit it.
But we must never forget how many Turks Erdogan had to imprison before he began this campaign!