by Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog
After the successful south-western Syria offensive which saw the Western-backed Jihadist rebels get expelled from the region, the Syrian Army and its allies are turning their attention to the north-western parts of the war-torn country. Early reports indicated that Moscow was unwilling to give the go ahead for a large offensive on the jihadist controlled Idlib province, mostly due to these areas being part of the “de-escalation” zones set up jointly by Russia and Turkey.
This however changed over the past weeks as jihadist rebels affiliated with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham have continually attacked the Russian airbase at Hmeymim with armed drones. Although all attempts to breach the airport were thwarted by the Russian air defences, Moscow has had enough of these terrorist threats to their forces. So finally after weeks of speculation, Army forces are building up at the frontlines in the Aleppo, Hama, Idlib and Latakia provinces in preparation for reportedly the largest offensive yet seen during this 7 year conflict.
Meanwhile, the Russian and Turkish defence ministers met the other day to discuss the situation in Syria, most likely in connection to the upcoming offensive. Despite Ankara’s regular contradictory statements on its position with regards to the Syrian government’s go or no go, Ankara has understood that Moscow will end this war with or without Ankara. Some Turkish Army representatives have allegedly vowed to confront the Syrian government forces in the Idlib and Hama provinces, however this has been considered a bluff by the Syrian Army high command, especially as Moscow has consistently held successful high level talks with Ankara.
Officially, Moscow has declared this offensive to be targeting the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, but anyone who has followed this war knows by now that all other so called “rebel groups” in Syria are deeply affiliated with HTS and share the same frontline with them. It is very likely that the Western-labeled “moderates” will also be targeted. Even if this offensive was to target only HTS, the rebels would still suffer a heavy blow as HTS is undoubtedly the strongest faction among the “Syrian opposition groups” and with them gone, the rest of the “opposition” would be forced to reconcile with the government or face certain death.
Moscow offers another way out
Meanwhile, some reports indicate that the US-backed “Syrian Democratic Forces” are ready for talks with the Syrian government. While the initial reports shockingly alleged that there was an agreement between the SAA and the SDF to launch the Idlib offensive jointly, those allegations have proven to be false and denied by both sides. Instead it is thought that the newly initiated dialogue between the Kurdish dominated SDF and the government, with or without US consent, is aimed at reconciliation. It is believed that the Syrian government will offer the Kurds in the north-western parts of the country a place in the future parliament and government.
Whether or not this happens with Washington’s consent is really irrelevant as several SDF commanders have in recent weeks stepped forward and declared their intentions to reconcile with the government. One SDF commander even lambasted Washington’s untrustworthy nature when he said that “The USA can give up on us (Kurds) any minute. Therefore we need to find other alternatives and stop depending on the Americans”. In a press conference in Qamishli, he said: “Kurds are ready to fight side by side with the Syrian Army against terrorists”. It is yet too early to say that the Kurdish leadership have learned their lesson when it comes to putting their faith in the treacherous Washington, but these statements cannot be overlooked so easily, especially in light of Washington’s inaction with regards to the Turkish aggression on the SDF. Faced with the prospect of complete annihilation as Ankara is threatening to attack the remaining SDF territory across Syria’s northern borders, it is only natural that the SDF leadership would be looking for another way out. Turning to the government and attempting to reconcile could be the best chance the Kurdish leadership and the ethnic group as a whole have to ever gain any sort of power, with regards to the leverage they hold (controlling ~ 25% of the country’s territory).
It is obvious that the SDF commanders have seen indications of what some of us observers have been saying for months: Washington is finished in Syria and is looking for a way out. What only a year ago looked like a collision course between the SAA and the SDF, has now turned into a potential reconciliation between two of the strongest forces in this conflict, the most definite proof of Moscow’s tireless efforts to rally all non-terrorist forces in the country and offer them another way out than the conflict-ridden one that Washington offers.
One of the last reasons for Washington’s long overdue stay in Syria was eliminated a few weeks ago as the Syrian Army cleared out the entire south-western parts of the country. This was done despite Israeli and US threats of action against “approaching Iranian forces” near the Golan Heights. As I explained in a previous piece a few months ago, Russia recognized the dangers of the Israeli-Iranian escalations in Southern Syria and stepped in to de-escalate the situation, which they did successfully through diplomacy. The Zionist leadership in Tel Aviv remained satisfied with the scenario presented by Moscow, one where only Syrian troops were involved in liberating the Daraa and Quneitra provinces. Now that Israel’s northern perimeters are secured, with Tel Aviv putting its faith in Moscow to uphold its role as a guarantor for peace, Washington finds even less reason to remain in Syria, as Moscow has totally side-lined Washington in Syria, even among its own allies.
It is with great confidence that the Syrian Army enters Idlib, knowing that the end is drawing near for the 7 year long terrorist plague that has struck their country. The time has come for Washington to pack up and leave, Syria and her allies have won.
Too bad that Russia’s Western “partners” now have changed their reason to be in Syria; now according to them, they will stay in Syria as long as Iran is in Syria. Remember how USA went into Iraq to look for the phantom “weapons of mass distraction” then claimed they liberated Iraq from the evil dictator Saddam?
Guess you Russkies haven’t learned yet, the so called “West” has no honor or morals; it will lie and lie and lie again until it achieves its aim? You Russkies STILL have A LOT to learn about the West and how it operates; there is no truth to the West, there is no reality, the West makes its own Reality.
Sorry Syria but the aim is removing Assad is still their central aim; NOTHING has changed and the war is still far from being won.
Still regular usa coalition 250 truck convoys going to north east. ….I do not think usa is going to relinquish control as Kurds need oil income etc. and usa wants to use that to control them….the usa army command that seems to operate independantly from the commander in chief I reckon is just waiting for him to be further disempowered….Iraq atttacked an Isis base in Syria the other day and I think usa wants its own territory hold to still have an influence preventing further possibility of Iraq – Iran associationship and “friendship” and use its positioning to monitor and have a thorn in the Afghan situation also too. And what happens if Turker quits nato….usa has Syrian bases as a fall back…..convenient staging post for more mena operations….creating troubles to justify its own actions.
JJ, The Kurds do not need any oil income. It’s not theirs to keep anyway. It all belongs to Syria. The Syrian government will use this income as required to rebuild the country. Kurds will not have a country, hence no income will come to them, except maybe subsidies. They know it very well. The Sultan will not allow for any nonsense, nor Iran and Russia will play along as long as Sultan plays nice with Russia.
IMO, the 250 truck delivery of weapons should also be seen in the context of the MIC’s usual business ; money laundering. They need to keep product moving, it matters little (to them) where.
WE, the Russkies, know all this about the west. But we still have to deal with the west somehow, so we are dealing in every way possible, all the while trying to avoid an all-out collision. You think this approach is wrong? Are you suggesting that we should bring the iron curtain back? What other way is there NOT to deal with the world around? I would, in fact, support the iron curtain idea, but i have a strong suspicion this is not the way to go in the current circumstances. The west in its current shape is moribund. What used to be capitalism is quickly mutating into plain feudalism or slavery. Give the west time, coupled with food deprivation, it will eat itself, unless it comes to its senses. Looks like Europe is trying, but “someone” won’t let it go, insisting on dragging Europe to Hell with it. The US will suffer a horrible crash. It is lashing out at everyone right now, like a wounded beast. Damage control is our duty today.
Is the author talking about the Globalists such as Hillary who lost the last election? —- If so, Washington is the wrong term.
A much more accurate headline for this piece is:
.
. WASHINGTON, Russia, and Syria WIN Together
.
As the author points out Assad and Putin have conceded the #1, and really only, requirement of the current Trump Administration — Containment of Iranian violence.
Stage one of the de-escalation deal is Russian troops enforcing a 50 mile exclusion zone against Iran/Hezbollah incursions, and the exclusion zone is slated to increase as time goes by. Having achieved the goal, looking to draw down U.S. Forces can only be characterized as SUCCESS in action. Trying to mis-characterize the draw down as faltering is ludicrous.
In return Washington, Russia, and Syria jointly achieve another goal. The formal end of the Turkey’s ‘regime change’ policy (1). Without a Hillary administration to support this bit of Soros/Erdogan Globalist craziness it had failure written all over it. Nevertheless formalizing the desired end state has symbolic value.
We already know Washington is not backing Kurdish independence moves, as demonstrated in Iraq (2). Reconciliation between Syrian Kurds and the Syrian central government is a Washington goal. Again the author points out, this Washington goal is being achieved:
With the end of Islamic State in Syria, the primary terror threat for the region is Iranian backed groups that wish to destabilize an evolving peace deal that excludes them from power and influence. It looks like Putin and Assad are building the necessary framework to contain this threat.
Hopefully this can be a model for other locations threatened by Iran, but without a strong force in the ground, such as Russia, I’m not sure if the strategy will translate well.
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(1) From 2016 — https://sputniknews.com/politics/201610121046277789-erdogan-syria-regime-change/
(2) From 2017 — https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-barzani/kurdish-leader-barzani-resigns-after-independence-vote-backfires-idUKKBN1CY0JS
Washington is controlled by the same zio-crazies, regardless of who is POTUS.
Unlike Israel, KSA, Turkey, US-NATO etc , Iran has never attacked anyone.
And unlike the usual suspects above – Iran is in Syria with the explicit consent of the sovereign Syrian authority.
As a result of Washington’s comprehensive defeat in Syria, and huge geopolitical loss in the region, Iran will be firmly and categorically entrenched in both Syria and Iraq for decades … get over it.
Unfortunately I think that there will be more Syrian (and possibly allies) blood shed before Washington departs. Yet another false flag is very likely despite many analysts thinking that the credibility of these is now non-existent … since when did the zio-neocon crazies care whether anyone believed their wmd/chemical attack/election meddling/spy poisoning/airline downing claims?
So does this mean Russia now upholds Israels occupation of the Golan Heights?
A more precise assessment would be:
Russia is preventing an Iranian/Hezbollah first strike along the Syrian-Israeli border and refuses to use its air defenses (e.g. S-300, S-400) to protect Iran/Hezbollah forces engaged in provocative actions.
Russia doesn’t directly address any long-term disposition of the Golan, but has stated that its short-term goal is the return to the 1974 armistice lines (1).
Russia is friends with both Syria and Israel. It seems likely that they would encourage peace negotiations between these parties to arrive at a deal over the Golan that both sides could accept. Syria covers >70,000 square miles of land. The Golan is <700 square miles in area. The disputed area is less than 1% of Syria. Joint development of oil, gas, & mineral resource extraction under the Golan is one plausible path to defuse tensions.
Given more pressing issues in larger and more valuable areas of Syria, it would be unrealistic to expect any significant action on this matter in the near future.
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(1) https://www.breitbart.com/news/in-syrias-golan-russia-seeks-handover-to-un-2/
If Russia is presenting as an objective intermediary, does this mean that Russia will also act to prevent an Israeli first strike across the Syria-Israel (occupied Golan Heights) border? Will the Russians use their air defenses to defend the SAA engaged in “provocative” actions (such as attempting to defend themselves from Israeli air attacks)?
There really should be no question as to the “long term disposition” of the Golan Heights. I assume the policy of the Russian Federation is supportive and compliant with UNSC resolutions 338 and 497 which call for peace talks between parties of the Yom Kippur war (such as Syria and Israel) and reject Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights?
Golan area that belongs to Syria may be only 1% of total area of the nation, but it has water and gas/oil. It also is a strategic height topographically. So it is worth probably 25-40% of what Syria should own to have great viability in the future development.
Israel holds it for all those same reasons.
Russia will work to end this standoff. The RF is a stakeholder in Syria with 50 year leases for Tartus and Latakia aerospace bases. Similarly, RF is a stakeholder in the one million Russians who emigrated to Israel. That’s how they operate, with deep strategic interests in both countries.
Moderating Iran’s plans in Syria is just one of the issues Russia is dealing with. Clearly, Russia wants Iran to have an extremely low profile and virtually no military activity in the future Syria.
Or they are holding it because among Syria and it’s allies, they have the best air defenses and also because Israel and USA wouldn’t dare to directly attack Russian troops.While American bases and Israel may remain as problems, common sense would dictate it’s better to address one problem at a time and Syria is still fighting the proxy terrorist forces.Just as common sense would dictate you ask invited parties to leave, only after uninvited parties have left.
The area isn’t “disputed”, it’s occupied. It is Syrian territory.
So, Russia protects the occupation by Israel , of the Golan Heights?
Battle Plan for Upcoming Liberation of Idlib.
Tiger Forces deploy across Abu Dhuhour front in Idlib.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-deploy-across-abu-dhuhour-front-in-idlib/
” Battle plan is becoming a bit more clear. TFs will cut through Saraqib (prime for reconciliation), while 4th Div & 5th Corps advance from al Ghab/NE Lattakia, cutting terrorists in two.” (Canthama)
This is wishful thinking, I’m afraid. The U.S. empire has not completed their goal of taking down Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. They only need an event, likely manufactured by themselves so they can lay blame on whomever they choose and justify an all-out attack.
The US is not going to launch any all-out attack against anyone. All its ME bases are easy targets for missiles from many sources. And US missile defenses have proven to be porous to the extreme.
The next all-out attack the US launches won’t be in the ME.
It is far more likely that Venezuela might be moving into the phase of collapse where the US decides to take it and its oil reserves before China and Russia find a way to hold onto their assets as collateral for bad loans the socialist disaster will never be able to repay.
The 30+ years investment in the Colombian military will soon be used as the shock troops the US sends in while they and a “coalition” bombs and missiles strikes the Venezuelan military into submission.
The US has shown recently panic over the inroads China is making in Latin America.
Everything is ripe for US hegemonic chaos and then rigid control over the southern Hemisphere.
That an ‘all out attack’ would reveal the incompetence of the AZs by failing miserably is why it won’t happen, IMO. There are some precedents that support my opinion.
George S. Patton’s speech to the Third Army: No Neo-bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He lost it by making the other poor, dumb American bastards die for his country.
For decades, the US MIC has had the perfect strategy to scam an infinite amount of money to achieve nothing.
https://www.traditionalright.com/the-view-from-olympus-building-sms-pinafore/