by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
The five states surrounding the sea – Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan – have reached difficult compromises on sovereign and exclusive rights as well as freedom of navigation
The long-awaited deal on the legal status of the Caspian Sea signed on Sunday in the Kazakh port of Aktau is a defining moment in the ongoing, massive drive towards Eurasia integration.
Up to the early 19th century, the quintessentially Eurasian body of water – a connectivity corridor between Asia and Europe over a wealth of oil and gas – was exclusive Persian property. Imperial Russia then took over the northern margin. After the break up of the USSR, the Caspian ended up being shared by five states; Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Very complex negotiations went on for almost two decades. Was the Caspian a sea or a lake? Should it be divided between the five states into separate, sovereign tracts or developed as a sort of condominium?
Slowly but surely, the five states reached difficult compromises on sovereign and exclusive rights; freedom of navigation; “freedom of access of all the vessels from the Caspian Sea to the world’s oceans and back” – in the words of a Kazakh diplomat; pipeline installation; and crucially, on a military level, the certitude that only armed forces from the five littoral states should be allowed in Caspian waters.
No wonder then that President Putin, in Aktau, described the deal in no uncertain terms as having “epoch-making significance.”
A sea or a lake?
So is the Caspian now a sea or a lake? It’s complicated; the convention signed in Aktau defines it as a sea, but subject to a “special legal status.”
This means the Caspian is regarded as open water, for common use – but the seabed and subsoil are divided. Still a work in progress, the devil is in the details in sorting out how the seabed is divided.
According to the draft text, published two months ago by Russia’s Kommersant, “the delimitation of the floor and mineral resources of the Caspian Sea by sector will be carried out by agreement between the neighboring and facing states taking into account generally recognized principles and legal norms.” Stanislav Pritchin, director of the Center for Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, described this as the best possible compromise, for now.
The maritime boundaries of each of the five states are already set; 15 nautical miles of sovereign waters, plus a further 10 miles (16 km) for fishing. Beyond that, it’s open water.
In Aktau, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev frankly admitted that even to reach this basic consensus was a difficult process, and the key issue of how to share the Caspian’s underground energy wealth remains far from solved.
Two offshore oil rigs on the Caspian sea. Photo: iStock
Kazakh Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov, quoting from the final text, emphasized that, “the methodology for establishing state base lines shall be determined in a separate agreement among all the parties according to this convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. This is a key phrase, especially important for our Iranian partners.”
The reference to Iran matters because under the deal Tehran ended up with the smallest share of the Caspian seabed. Diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that up to the last minute President Rouhani’s team was not totally satisfied with the final terms.
That was reflected in Rouhani’s comment that the convention was “a major document” even as it did not solve for good the extremely complex dossier.
What Rouhani did emphasize was how “gratifying” was the fact his Caspian partners privilege “multilateralism and oppose unilateral actions that are developing in some countries.” That was not only a direct reference to the Caspian partners supporting the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal, but also a veiled reference to President Trump’s threat that “anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States.”
Rouhani and Nazarbayev in fact held a separate meeting dedicated to increased economic cooperation, including the mutual drive to use their national currencies on trade, bypassing the US dollar.
These waters are off-limits to NATO
Iran-Kazakhstan economic cooperation is bound to follow Iran-Russia parameters. Putin and Rouhani, who enjoy a warm, close personal relationship, spent quite some time in Aktau discussing issues far beyond the Caspian, such as Syria, Gazprom investment in Iranian gas fields, and how to deal with Washington’s sanctions offensive.
Both were adamant in their praise of a key stipulation of the deal; there will be no NATO roaming the Caspian. In the words of Rouhani, “the Caspian Sea only belongs to the Caspian states.” Putin for his part confirmed Russia plans to build a new deepwater port in the Caspian by 2025.
A panoramic view of Baku, Azerbaijan from the Martyrs Lane viewpoint, near the center of Baku. Photo: iStock
In the turbulent geoeconomic realm that I defined years ago as “Pipelineistan,” the deal will allow a lot of leeway; from now on, pipelines to be laid offshore require consent only from neighboring states, rather than from all “Caspian Five”.
A major consequence is that Turkmenistan may finally be able to lay down its own 300 km-long trans-Caspian underground pipeline to Azerbaijan – a project that was never exactly encouraged by Russia. This pipeline will allow Turkmenistan to diversify from its massive exports to China by tapping the European market via Baku, in direct competition with Gazprom.
Ashgabat may finally be on its way towards a win-win; not only Baku could use more gas imports to compensate for production shortfalls, but Moscow seems inclined to restart imports of Turkmen gas.
From now on, the game to watch in the Caspian is how deeper energy/economic cooperation may go, in the spirit of true Eurasia integration, even with China not directly involved in the affairs of the sea. Chinese companies though are heavily invested in the Kazakhstan oil business and are major importers of Turkmenistan gas.
Historically, Persia always maintained a demographic, cultural and linguistic pull across most of Central Asia. Persia remains one of its organizing principles; Iran is a Central Asian as much as a Southwest Asian power.
This should be contrasted with Caspian nations still heavily influenced by Soviet atheism and Turkish shamanism. A particularly interesting case to watch will be Azerbaijan – which is part of the Western sphere of influence via pipelines such as the BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan), which crosses Georgia all the way to the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean.
This was The Art of the Deal – Central Asian-style. What’s already established is that the Caspian 2.0 is a major multilateral win for Eurasia integration.
Hey, they can’t do that! cheney will be furious, he called the Caspian region the prize, and it obviously belongs to the US. So I’m hoping he will go there, in a bright orange jumpsuit, and take it personally.
Looking at the map, the Caspian is entirely landlocked. How could NATO gain a presence there? Airlift in a battleship or carrier?
Antoinetta III
The Manych Canal links to the Don River, canal built in Soviet times. Half the Russian Caspian Fleet is in the Azov at this time. Plans are extant to expand the system.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
Antoinette III
Ships come in all shapes and sizes. You don’t always need aircraft carriers. You can also control the Caspian through air, if you grab one of the countries.
Antoinetta,
If / when NATO accepts Azerbaijan as a member (possible, certainly we can’t rule it out), then Azerbaijan can invite US forces under the NATO pretext.
It would be hard to get a NATO battleship into the Caspian, but smaller stuff can be built in situ, and Saker was just telling us how those mini-subs can be a menace out of all proportion to their size.
The one to watch is Azerbaijan, they have the closest ties to israel of the 5 nations bordering the Caspian.
Indeed, and I think Pepe might have missed one important point connected to that.
Back in 2008, in the brief Georgian war, a big hoo-hah was made by the likes of then labour minister David Milliband (zionist), that 2% of the world’s oil went through the baku/tblisi pipeline for the West, and it was under threat because of those villainous Russians. He was hysterically trying to whip up anti Russian sentiment, but nobody in the UK really cared.
His use of the term ‘West’ was totally disingenuous. Most of it went to Israel, and most of that in turn to be re-routed via their red sea port, for re-sale to Asia. So ‘Western interests’ is as is so often the case, just a euphemism for Israeli interests, which the easily confused gentiles are supposed to fight Russia for to defend.
Now, if Azerbaijani oil is ultimately sought after by Asian markets, and a pipeline is built from Baku across the Caspian, in which direction will the oil flow?
This might be a major headache for Israel, once any existing contracts expire. Azerbaijan might be able to export in any direction, and if the end customer continues to be Asia, then who needs middle men, and complex routes when there is a direct one?
An interesting interview on this subject in Sputnik which covers some aspects Escobar neglected.
Caspian Sea Convention Sets New Standards for International Relations – Journo
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201808151067199599-caspian-sea-convention-international-relations/
I guess its salt water ? Otherwise it couldn’t be called a sea, could it ? It makes sense that even though its like a lake – its in the same part of the world – generally speaking as the Dead Sea – which is like a salt lake – I suppose there are salt lakes in other parts of the world too – such as Salt Lake City –
Nope. Fresh water. Another reason for Murica to want it – to bottle it and sell it.
“Due to the current inflow of fresh water, the Caspian Sea is a freshwater lake in its northern portions, and is most saline on the Iranian shore, where the catchment basin contributes little flow. Currently, the mean salinity of the Caspian is one third that of Earth’s oceans.” says https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Sea
When there is an important, under-reported event somewhere in Eurasia, Pepe has most likely covered it. Cheers!
Twenty years of being unable to reach a consensus and suddenly the five littoral states agree on a special status (it’s both a sea and a lake) and how to share the mighty treasures (oil, gas and caviar etc). Timing is everything in geopolitics.
As both Russia and Iran are about to whacked with more sanctions, could the law of unintended consequences be at work here?
By reaching this historic agreement those five states just gave a ‘rude middle finger’ (as my grandson would say) to the ‘exceptional nation’.
Of course. This is why I like sanctions – they show what bunch of arrogant lunatics run Murica, and therefore “motivate” other countries to seek cooperation elsewhere, as far away as possible from the dollar and its’ master.
This is further proof that Eurasia is the future, as stated by analysts. Wall Street will try to prevent this, and will fail, making additional enemies in the process.
Certainly a ground breaking and wise decision.
BTW, the Greeks have always, from the dawn of times, referred to Caspian Sea as Sea.
This agreement was reached without threats, bombing runs or colour revolutions. This is the art of the deal I like to see. I especially like the fact that NATO is not allowed there. What are the odds that NATO will take this as a challenge and decide to try to sale there anyway, as a provocation? That would not end well.
The only way for NATO to sail to the Caspian Sea is via the Russian Federation and I don’t foresee that happening. Of course one of the five littoral states could join NATO – Russia? Iran? Kazakhstan? Turkmenistan? Azerbaijan? Not very likely.
Seeing four opponents states once belonging to one country, one nation (USSR) is to see the image of a sad defeat for all of them and a big victory for their enemies. Now they are only playing their little “Game of Thrones”.
How much longer will it be before your country breaks apart into smaller independent states?
I don’t know but surely as always depends on what decide the same Masters that, for example, have dissolved USSR and Yugoslavia.
Proof of the pudding is in the eating. When do we see a vibrant cruise liner circuit in the Caspian !!
All hands on deck : exponential increase in carbon emissions leading to “Hothouse Earth” means that it would be suicidal to continue to extract more and more fossil fuels from the Caspian Basin. It too will share the fate of the Aral Sea.
Been ” forecast” that northeast Iran area going to suffer extreme drought over next ten years or so….. the participants urgently need to have plans in place for water becoming a scarce resource as various organisations express concern about scarcity of water resources…
“ These waters are off-limits to NATO”
This is one of the most single important statement of the article above.
Despite being termed as “north atlantic”, NATO hypocritically encroaches other regions way beyond that.
The more parts of the world becoming off-limit to NATO, the better it will be for the whole Earth.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasia_Canal
Proposed improvements to existing navigation system more directly linking Black Sea and Caspian….
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