by Francis Lee for the Saker Blog
Of all the enemies to public liberty, war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; and from these proceed debt and taxes; and armies, and debts, are taxes of the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few … no nation could reserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.’’ (My emphasis – FL) (1)
Thus was the initial warning by James Madison to the possible development (and dangers) which lie ahead of the great social and political experiment in what was to become the American Republic. In fact these militaristic/ imperial proclivities were also noted by the more astute members and chroniclers of American history and repeated by Alexis De Tocqueville in 1835. He wrote that:
Among democratic nations the wealthiest, best educated, and ablest men seldom adopt a military profession, the army taken collectively, eventually forms a new nation by itself where the mind is less enlarged, and habits are made rude than in the nation at large. Now this small and uncivilized nation has arms in its possession and also knows how to use them; (My emphasis – FL) for indeed the pacific temper of the community increases the danger to which a democratic people is exposed from the military and the turbulent spirit of the Army. Nothing is so dangerous as an army in the midst of an unwarlike nation; the excessive love of the whole community for quiet puts the Constitution at the mercy of the soldiery. (2)
‘Unwarlike’? Well the Republic was to become very warlike for most of its history. Things got started in earnest in 1846-48 with the US/Mexican conflict. This marked the first U.S. armed conflict chiefly fought on foreign soil. It pitted a politically divided and militarily unprepared Mexico against the expansionist-minded administration of U.S. President James K. Polk, who believed the United States had a “manifest destiny” to spread across the continent to the Pacific Ocean. A border skirmish along the Rio Grande started off the fighting and was followed by a series of U.S. victories. When the dust cleared, Mexico had lost about one-third of its territory, including nearly all of present-day California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. So the US got the taste of imperial hubris and easy victories early on. This was the beginning of a will to global expansion which has seen the US develop a penchant for global hegemony.
What could be more apposite and sombre of these measured warnings to the present time and the leadership thereof. The United States has transmuted from being an experimental national democracy into a rampaging imperial juggernaut with all the attendant features of empire. In general and in more recent times these imperial conflicts have been wars of choice. No-body had attacked the US since the half-hearted British attempt in 1812 and the Japanese in 1941. The only war of any significance since independence was the internal conflict between the industrial north and the agrarian south.
The Rise of Empire
This awakening of US imperialism was later extended to the Spanish/American war of the late 19th century. New territories in Latin America and East Asia were added through their annexation. The US had thus become the latest newcomer to the imperialist club although it always insisted (rather unconvincingly) that it was different to the more established British, French, Spanish and Portuguese exploitative models. There was a belief, presumably mandated by the deity, in America’s manifest destiny to rule the world. This is the same patter, which is now trotted out by the neo-cons, the Deep State, NSA, MIC, MSM, and political parties. Whether they actually believe in this is something of a moot point.
Yet now the United States finds itself everywhere in a situation of endless simultaneous wars, occupations, blockades (whoops, I mean sanctions), economic warfare, surveillance warfare and one-sided alliances whereby its ‘allies’ are in many ways worse treated than its chosen enemies and are becoming increasingly disenchanted with their subaltern role. This is particularly instanced in the American German falling out over the question of Russian Gas and Nordstream2. Germany has its own national interests which conflict with those of the US. How exactly is this going to play out? It should be understood in this respect that the US does not have ‘allies’ in the generally accepted understanding of the term, but subaltern hierarchies of the ‘Me Tarzan – You Jane’ variety. The ‘Jane’ in the situation are the assembled and invertebrate species of EU vassal regimes who up to this point in their history have always been willing to prostrate themselves at the command of their transatlantic masters.
One of the stranger anomalies of this US global military-economic posture is the influence of Israel – Israel this tiny country, with its tiny population, in the middle east must be obeyed at all costs. And making sure that it is obeyed are the various interest groups in the US which inter alia includes the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) the Anti-Deformation League (ADL) the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). Most, if not all, of the senior members of these organizations are Jewish, Zionists and/or neo-conservatives. To give an example of their influence and reach take the case of uber-hawk and Zionist lackey Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Amidst the general routine and prevalent corruption in American political and corporate life the Las Vegas gambling magnate Sheldon Adelson – staunch supporter of his particular interests and the Israeli cause – began throwing around tens of millions of dollars to push legislation to ban internet gambling in order to protect his billion dollar oligopoly casino interests against competition. It wasn’t long before Graham introduced a bill to ban internet gambling. When asked about the curious coincidence of timing Graham said that his Southern Baptist constituents in South Carolina (SC) shared Adelson’s aversion to internet gambling so there was no quid pro quo involved.
It should be borne in mind, however, that Graham had held Federal Office in SC since 1995, and yet he had felt no driving urge to introduce such legislation until 2014. This took place when Graham had apparently undergone a Damascene Conversion precisely at the time that Mr Adelson began to shower him with monies. Graham’s transaction with his benefactor apparently did not meet the Supreme Court’s chief Justice, John Roberts’s, narrow definition of an illegal quid pro quo as expressed in the Court’s 2010 Citizens United Decision.
In another unrelated instance involving Graham, which might be considered as being questionable, there were his political liaisons with a foreign state and its leader – Benjamin Netanyahu – whose policies Graham would be disposed to imbibe and support whatever the policies the Israeli Prime Minster might propose, an arresting statement in light of the Senator’s oath to the American Constitution and the voters he represents. (3)
Yet another instance of a corrupt American official in the pocket of Israeli interests. Moreover, it is not merely lower rank officials who willingly take the knee to Israel, the process reaches up to the highest levels of the US political establishment; so much so that It seems difficult to exactly work out who is whose client state in the US/Israel relationship.
Various right-wing think-tanks (see above) most importantly the American Enterprise Institution, or to give it its full name, The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research is a Washington, D.C. based think-tank which researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare. AEI is an independent non-profit organization supported primarily by grants and contributions from foundations, corporations, and individuals. This of course is a rather misleading description of what it actually does, and what its alleged goals are, in what is a vehemently pro-Zionist neo-con outfit. Leading figures include Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, Mr and Mrs Wurmser as well as the rest of the Zionist neo-con gang whose entire raison d’etre seems to be unconditional support for Israel. This was instanced in the policy statement, A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm (commonly known as the “Clean Break” report) was a policy document that was prepared in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle and Douglas Feith for Benjamin Netanyahu, the then Prime Minister of Israel. The report explained a new approach to solving Israel‘s security problems in the Middle East with an emphasis on “Western values” (i.e., naked imperialism). It has widely been criticized for advocating an aggressive new policy including the removal and murder of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the ongoing war and annexation of parts of Syria by engaging in proxy and actual warfare and highlighting Iraq’s alleged possession of mythical “weapons of mass destruction”.
It would not be an exaggeration to surmise that US foreign policy is now, and has been for some time, subsumed under Israel’s strategic interests and policies in the middle-east. Exactly what the United States gets out of this relationship is not clear other than the mollycoddling and financing of the Zionist apartheid state for no apparent returns.
The US foreign policy enigma:
I think it was Winston Churchill who once described the foreign policy of the Soviet Union as being ‘’ … a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.’’ It seems that much the same is true of the United States and its foreign policy. The cornerstone of the policy was put in place in the 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dismemberment of Yugoslavia and the expansion of NATO up to Russia’s western frontier and the first and second Iraq wars, as well as the destruction of Libya, ably assisted by the British and French. This period of triumphalism for the Anglo-Zionist empire is ending with the imperial overstretch eventuating from 9/11. This episode has been subject to a myriad of various theories and has never been definitively demonstrated as to who were the brains behind this event. That being said the consequences of the event had deep-going ramifications. As one commentator has noted.
‘’The September 11, 2001, terrorist attack and the botched response to it delivered a twofold lesson: first, perpetual intervention in conflicts abroad is likely to spawn what the CIA calls ’’blowback’’ an unintended negative consequences of an intervention suffered by the party that intervenes. It is irrefutable that America’s funding and arming of religious based (i.e., Jihadis- FL) resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan created a Frankenstein’s monster that little more than a decade later brought the war back to the United States. But we have been largely unwilling to join the dots beyond that. Invading Iraq in 2003 spawned further instability in the middle-east and the emergence of more terrorist groups. Why is it that so few of our pundits have noticed the obvious fact that the civil war in Syria and the rise of ISIS are the direct results of our actions in Iraq? Beyond that the United State’s government’s ham-fisted meddling in internal Ukrainian politics helped to set in motion a predictable chain of events that has sparked a new cold war. Actions such as this have drained our Treasury and destabilized large areas of the World. (4)
It also seems pertinent to enquire as to what extent is the United States carrying out policies which could be defined as being the pursuit of its national interests; this as opposed to the interests of internal and itinerant cosmopolitan groups in the US whose sympathies and interests lie elsewhere in overseas climes and not in the US heartlands. But this should be expected from the aims and objectives of these footloose globalist oligarchies in the key positions at the apex of American institutions and exerting what amounts to a stranglehold on policy-making.
Overstretch, Hubris and Messianism
Generally speaking all empires have recognisable contours of development, maturity, and decline; and there is no reason to suppose that America and its empire will be an exception to this general rule. For all that the American ruling class has taken it upon itself to deny these fundamental conditions and processes of empire. A case study was the fate of the British Empire. At the end of WW2 Britain could no longer bear the costs of holding down 25% of the worlds surface. Moreover the populations of empire – particularly in India – did not wish to be held down. Post 1945 the jig was up: the UK was effectively bankrupt, and the US took full advantage of this.
‘’The US concept of multilateralism was expressed in the Lend-Lease programme in its dealings with the UK. The British loan of 1946 and the Bretton Woods Agreements called for the dollar to supplant sterling as the world’s reserve currency. In effect the Sterling Area was to be absorbed into what would be the dollar area which would be extended throughout the world. Britain was to remain in a weakened position in which it found itself at the end of the war … with barely any free monetary reserves and dependent on dollar borrowings to meet its current obligations. The United States would gain access to Britain’s pre-war markets in Latin America, Africa, the middle-east and the far east … the Anglo-American Loan Agreement spelt the end of Britain as a Great Power.’’ (5)
This is the way empires die, new empires arise, decline, and they in their turn also die, and this process admits of no exceptions.
The Big Push
From a geopolitical viewpoint the most important developments in recent years have been the relative decline of America in economic, political, and cultural terms, the rise of China, and the recovery of Russia from the disastrous years of the Yeltsin ascendancy. That being said it should be acknowledged that America is the most powerful global economic and military alliance – but there has been the undermining of this pre-eminence which is symptomatic of its present state. I remember the scene in the film Apocalypse Now with Martin Sheen playing Captain Willard who sums up his (and America’s) dilemma: ‘’Every minute I stay in this room, I get weaker, and every minute Charlie squats in the bush, he gets stronger.’’ That pretty much sums up the situation facing America then and now. As for the $ dominance well that worked provided advantage was not taken of its privileged position, but of course, human nature being what it is, advantage was taken. Moreover, the reserve status of the dollar isn’t, as many suppose, a one-way gravy train. Given that the dollar is the world’s global currency demand will fluctuate. Increased demand will push up the value of the greenback meaning that goods and services exported to the US will become cheaper. However a strong dollar will push up the costs of America’s export producers and lead to a hollowing out of US industry. Hence the Rust Belt. The absurdity of having a domestic currency serve as the global reserve currency means that the US monetary authorities need to engineer a situation whereby an equilibrium match of dollar inflows to dollar outflows is attained. A difficult if not impossible trick to perform. Please see the Triffin Paradox.
This is a situation which the US cannot endure. It must act now to reverse its own decline and prevent the rise of other great powers. The ‘Big Push’ mentality whereby the final victorious outcome against an entrenched enemy became a feature of military ‘thinking’ (sic) during WW1. The British and French offensives on the western front, the battles of the Somme 1916, Ypres III 1917 (Wipers 3 as the British soldiers’ called it) and the Nivelle offensives 1917, did not succeed in bringing about a victory over embedded German opposition and cost hundreds of thousands of casualties for a few blood-soaked hundred meters of gain. The situation was reversed in 1918 when the Germans went on the offensive, but the result was a successful counter-offensive by the British, French, and newly arrived American divisions and finally the Armistice of 1918.
Be that as it may this ‘Big Push’ mentality has seemingly insinuated itself into current US’s strategic thinking. This in spite of the fact that the rather inconsistent results of such past policies does not offer a particularly feasible option – but they may just do it anyway. Who knows?
Thumbing through the history books is always a good guide to how the decision makers behave at the inflexion points of history.
The Sicilian Expedition
In the History of the Peloponnesian War the Greek Historian, Thucydides, gives an account of the key moment in the ongoing wars between Sparta and Athens. This was the invasion of Sicily by Athens or more commonly known as the Sicilian Expedition. The view of Pericles in 430 BC was the status quo option: neither expand the Athenian empire nor diminish it. No withdrawal from Afghanistan.
… do not imagine that what we are fighting for is simply the question of freedom or slavery; there is also involved the loss of empire and dangers arising from the hatred we have incurred in the administration of it. Nor is it any longer possible to give up this empire – though there maybe some people in a mood of panic and in the spirit of political apathy actually think that this would be a fine and noble thing to do. Your empire is now like a tyranny; it may have been wrong to take it; it is certainly dangerous to let it go. (6)
Sound familiar? After the acquisition of empire, the costs of this enterprise start to roll in; the process then begins to move and then stagnate under the weight of its own slowing momentum and popular resistance. But like today’s neo-cons the Athenian war party nonetheless prevailed: the empire must at all costs be preserved. In terms of a modern cost-benefit analysis this would in purely rational business terms conclude that the maintenance of empire was not sustainable; it was a loss-making operation.
Sceptics about the wisdom of the Sicilian adventure including Nicias warned about the irrational exuberance of the war party as follows:
It is true that this assembly was called to deal with the preparations to be made for sailing to Sicily. Yet I still think that this is a question that requires further thought … is it really a good thing to send the ships at all? I think that we ought not to give just hasty consideration to so important a matter which does not concern us … I shall therefore confine myself to showing you that this is the wrong time for such adventures and that the objects of your ambitions are not to be gained easily. What I say is this: In going to Sicily you are leaving many enemies behind you, and you apparently want to make new ones there and have them also on your hands. It is with real alarm that I see this young man’s party (i.e., the war party FL) sitting at his (Alcibiades) side in this assembly all called in to support him and I and my side call for the support of the older men among you. If any one of you sits next to one of his supporters do not allow yourself to be browbeaten or frightened of being called a coward if you do not vote for war. (7)
But such reasoned arguments did not move the war party who gave Nicias’ arguments noticeably short shrift. The war party was on heat and there was no stopping the momentum of war pumped up by an adrenalin of mass psychosis. But this was not the end of the matter.
The war 415-413 BC itself turned out to be an absolute disaster for Athens. After achieving early successes the Athenians were checked by the arrival Spartan general, Gylippus, who galvanized the local inhabitants into action. From that point forward, however, as the Athenians ceded the initiative to their newly energized opponents, the tide of the conflict shifted. A massive reinforcing armada from Athens briefly gave the Athenians the upper hand once more, but a disastrous failed assault on a strategic high point and several crippling naval defeats damaged the Athenian soldiers’ ability to continue fighting and also their morale. The Athenians attempted a last-ditch evacuation from Syracuse. The evacuation failed, and nearly the entire expedition were captured or were destroyed in Sicily. Athens never really recovered after this strategic rout.
The whole sorry episode seems remarkably familiar: deadly examples of overestimating your own strength and underestimating the strength of the opposition. This policy (or lack of) has turned out to be a leitmotif in the US wars of choice against small but determined adversaries. The results of deploying the same playbook operationalised by the same incorrigible Neanderthals in the deep state with the same utterly predictable results. This present ongoing American attempt to construct a world empire through political, economic, and military means seems to be gearing up and preparing to launch its own Sicilian Expedition and this process has already been started. A classic example of imperial overreach. Nevertheless, the policy must go on; and it must be soon or never. One is reminded of Einstein’s famous dictum applicable to the PTB who are in charge of US policy. (8) But do the Americans really believe that they can carry this off? Are they actually crazy? Or is the whole thing nothing more than a brilliant bluff. Time will tell.
NOTES
(1) James Madison – ‘Political Observations’ – 1795. Letters and Writings of James Madison – 1865 – Volume IV
(2) Alexis de Tocqueville – Democracy in America – Volume 2 – pp.282/283
(3) ‘Senator Lindsey Graham – Meeting in Israel with PM Netanyahu – Fox News – 27 December 2014.
(4) Mike Lofgren – The Deep State – p.43
(5) Michael Hudson – Super Imperialism – pp.268/269
(6)Thucydides – History of the Peloponnesian War – The Policy of Pericles – Book 2 – 63
(7) Thucydides – Ibid – Launching of the Sicilian Expedition Book 6 – 8, 9, 10
(8) “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results.”
“It would not be an exaggeration to surmise that US foreign policy is now, and has been for some time, subsumed under Israel’s strategic interests and policies in the middle-east. Exactly what the United States gets out of this relationship is not clear other than the mollycoddling and financing of the Zionist apartheid state for no apparent returns.”
If Zionists are indeed controlling US foreign policy it must be said that the vast majority of Zionists in the USA are Christian, not Jewish. John Hagee and his Christians United for Israel have made it clear that bringing the Jews back to the so-called Holy Land is part of G-d’s plan. They are looking forward to their warrior messiah returning to Earth any day now to smite the unbelievers, including the Likudnik Jews who they throw money at in Israel. This group is the rock-solid core of Trump’s base and everything he does caters to their support.
I submit, though, that the real “powers that be” are not Zionist or Jewish. Hell, I don’t even think they’re human. More likely, they’re some automated profit algorithm that has determined the Earth has way too many humans on it. Hence, the COVID-19 plandemic which is currently resetting the global economy and is subjecting humanity to increasing destitution, starvation, and death. It must be part of their grand plan. Through a process of galloping climate change, plagues, famines, and bio-wars directed at everyone, including the Jews, it’s in the process of culling the herd, so to speak. In the real PTB’s perfectly logical mind, robots will be much better than humans at functioning on a hostile planet like what Earth is almost certainly destined to become. They might keep some of us around for scientific study and such but we certainly won’t be running the world. That quaint old idea went out with the last century.
If Zionists are indeed controlling US foreign policy it must be said that the vast majority of Zionists in the USA are Christian, not Jewish.
Agreed. How could it be otherwise, given that the Jewish religion “begat” the Christian one in the first place? I’ve always thought that the two made strange bedfellows, since all Christians are basically heretics to the tribe members. This whole “God’s plan” nonsense needs to be eradicated, no matter which band of religious idiots is proclaiming it. If only all the world’s secular people would wake up to that fact and realize what’s going on. Religious people – especially of all the semitic religions – are hardly harmless. They’re the rot upon which all the rest of the rot festers.
Christian Zionists, like Pompeo and Pence, are a death cult that hopes for a transformative apocalyptic war that will be the end of the USA as we know it and the beginning of their dominionist wet-dream. That they’ve been brought into Trump’s inner circle shows that he will do anything to get re-elected, even start a war with Iran to boost his ratings. That he hasn’t done so already is an f-ing miracle, but he will get more and more desperate as the weeks and months go by. This will not end well.
Cheer up, Tommy, the future of the species Homo Sapiens sapiens might not be quite as bad as you predict. Claude Shannon, one of the great AI minds of the 20th century, surmised that “computers will keep some of us as pets”.
Being as how I’m pushing 72, I’m figuring that one of the various plandemics that are in store for us humans in the 21st Century new world order will take me down. Oh, well… c’est la vie.
The science fiction novel “The Robots of Dawn” by Isaac Asimov, published in 1983 has a similar theme.
Another brilliant analysis, KL! Have to wonder now where the US Sicilian Expedition will be aimed precisely and how soon it might come. Will the Empire make its last stand in the waters of the China Sea, or will it lie down and die in the sands of the middle east, or will it insanely choose a frontal assault on the great Russian Bear to the north? Very interesting times ahead, either way.
It won’t be the SCS. The US navy would suffer losses. There is no way the US Navy would risk what could be losses of major vessels and thousands of crew.
It is more likely that Ukraine could be used to test the Russians. It could be a gambit to push NATO into a conflict in an effort to draw Russia out into full aggression, not just a short response to a Ukie attack. The US would not act alone, and probably push NATO in front of any US units. Defending Kiev, Mariupol and Odessa would be very difficult once the Russian’s got rolling in response. But Ukraine is a large battleground and NATO and the US have Generals who think they could damage the Russians if given an opportunity. It takes real delusion to come to such a conclusion, but that’s the state of things.
I don’t think there will be any “war” by the US in 2020.
Larchmonter, do you think that the warning V.V issued when announcing Russia’s “non first strike, but wide response to an attack”, that not only would Russia hit where the incoming missile came from but also the US base in control of that site, would also cover non-nuclear attacks?
I am a little nonplussed as to exactly what Russia might decide was a “threatening to the life of Russia and or her allies” apart from a nuclear attack.
I had thought that, if the US interpreted that ANY attack on Russia, which Russia via her Intel could know was backed by a US site and thus that the US would come under Russian fire, was enough to prevent ANY attack from US via proxies on Russia for the foreseeable future.
What do you think?
Pamela,
Not only what Putin said, but reiterated by top Generals.
The “ordering” HQ for any launch against Russia will be destroyed.
The US is ground zero for any NATO or Ukie attack against Russia.
No one escapes the counter-strike. Brussels, London, Warsaw, Washington–all of them will be wiped out if an attack (Kinetic or Nuclear, EMP, Cyber, Biological, Chemical) is launched against any part of Russia.
This is now Russian Federation doctrine.
You have to understand that an attack is total war. A major military intends total war if it launches an attack across national borders. So, the response must be total war.
Right – I thought so, thanks for that clarification.
But – do we think that the US PTB also understand it? Is it enough to stop them ordering their proxies to launch an attack against Russia, knowing they will be wiped out?
Or are they fooling themselves that it can’t be true, or that they could prevent incoming missiles from Russia.
It seems to be clear, that to any rational, sane mind in US they have been stymied. They can’t move against Russia without destroying themselves, which should have us all relaxing as any chance of total war is now off the table.
But what if many of those in power are not sane, or rational, and refuse to believe this statement given by Putin and his Generals? Are there any such, I wonder?
“But what if many of those in power are not sane, or rational, and refuse to believe this statement given by Putin and his Generals? Are there any such, I wonder?”
“Their population” are the theatre audience to whom the opponents are performing, not to others – the latest performance being an updated version of the “missile gap” farce of the 1950’s, and the updated failed attempt to “hoodwink” China as in 1970 facilitating “detente” between “The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union”, that around 300 is eqivalent to around 6000.
To some opponents “their population” are food sources and human shields, and to some other opponents “their population ” are facilitators of “rapture”.
Most practitioners don’t resort to belief, they understand in some assay on the bases of scientific rigour, as recently noted once more by Mr. Lavrov.
That has been understood and accepted by virtually all practitioners since at least 1984 (nuclear winter hypotheses) as part of the sciences of change.
This wide acceptance was confirmed by practitioners during meetings in Obnynsk and Seversk in 1993 discussing nuclear weapons of the “Soviet Union” and their subsequent disposition/management.
“They can’t move against Russia without destroying themselves, which should have us all relaxing as any chance of total war is now off the table.”
This was/is the context underpinning the opponents increasing assays of /reliance upon “colour revolutions” including the attempts at colour revolutions in the “Soviet Union” in the late 1940’s and subsequent – the “initial” part of “The Cold War” which is often disappeared/obfuscated, including the dates and trajectories of the war between “The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union” which Mr. Suslov and others dated as commencing in 1922.
The some who believe in “lunatics in charge” gambits, an update of the Mr. Nixon/Mr. Kissinger routine of 1969/1972 ( a time of perceived weakness of the “United States of America”), and some who believe “rapture” will deflect others from projected intentions they never had, are making noises whilst accelerating the destruction of the planet.
Consequently coercive social relations require to be transcended by cooperative social relations, emulation and/or “reform” of coercive social relations will not be sufficient in themselves, and that death by all out nuclear war may be more “humane” than death by nuclear winter and/or destruction of the planet (the bases upon which many practitioners “relax” and engage).
In both Obnynsk and Seversk in 1993 dissenting voices came from a very limited number from two delegations with a common background in “exceptionalism”.
In response they were reminded of Mr. Sagan’s observation that when your are standing in a pool of gasolene, it makes no qualitative difference if you have 3 matches or 6, an observation which may have informed recent attempts to convince China that 300 is equivalent to 6000.
Mr. Sagan’s observation was challenged on the basis of purpose and contingent evaluation.
If the purpose was informed by “death by all out nuclear war may be more “humane” than death by nuclear winter and/or destruction of the planet (the bases upon which many practitioners relax and engage).”, then to ensure the purpose is achieved, the qualitative difference between about 300 and about 6000 is significant.
It was suggested to the “exceptionalists” that they should use scientific method and test their hypotheses.
Thus far they haven’t.
Even psychopaths see reality.
However, all these bad characters have “keepers”, either military or Intel keepers who control the weapons they would use.
The stakes are now lose of statehood. As Putin said, if Ukraine attacks, it will cease to be a state. Can’t get any more clear.
Blow up the Kerch bridge, attack Crimea, attack the Lugansk border with Russia, and Ukraine ceases to exist as a nation-state.
I don’t know if you saw videos of the 300,000 men and machines exercise with the Chinese last year, but NATO and the US saw them. That’s when the Brit general said England would be defeated in a few days and NATO said it would be defeated in 2 weeks. So, figure how long the Ukies would last. We know that they surrender at lightning fast rates under normal fighting. An all out counter-strike by the Russian Federation would see Ukies racing at 60 mph toward the West.
Presently, the Russian military, in technology, training and purpose, have every advantage in defending and counter-strike technologies. They are ahead in hypersonic weapons, missile defense, EW (electronic warfare), close air support, artillery, and tanks and armored vehicles. Logistically, their supply lines are as brief as any, because they are fighting at and across their own borders. Then, they would be fighting on land where their grandfathers and ancestors have fought for many hundreds of years. Sacred war on sacred ground.
Finally, the Russians would be fighting the new Nazis, some from Ukraine, the rest from the EU, Canada and US. Very high motivation for the Russians to destroy them totally.
Yes, there are very stupid people who could cause an event that could result in war. The Ukies tried to get their boats under the Kerch bridge.That didn’t work out very well for them. Next they are talking about firing missiles at the bridge. I imagine the S-400s defending Crimea will knock down the missiles. It’s sub-sonic Ukie missiles versus supersonic S-400 missiles defending the bridge. And after that, there would be no more Ukieland. They would all be running for Canada like their nazi war criminal grandfathers.
“Can’t get any more clear.”
Words are catalysts of connotations which are often derived from “practice”, and hence not everyone perceives the same connotations.
Connotations are also functions of framing and not everyone is reliant on the same framing, and/or similar assays of similar resort to framing.
Consequently words can become empty vessels that others “invest” with their own contents; an illustrative example being “war”.
“Yes, there are very stupid people who could cause an event that could result in war.”
Some lost in connotation and frames tend to restrict “war” to things that go bang; which often is wrapped in notions of prime and/or sole agency.
“War” however is always an interaction where all have agency, and attempts at evangelising “war” as being subject to prime and/or sole agency are useful in increasing the noise/signal ratio, since even very stupid people don’t live in a vacuum.
This may illuminate why analyst and strategist are spelled differently, and why the Russian Federation is not called K. u. K. The Austro-Hungarian Empire inhabited by Men, (and women), without qualities.
@Pamela
“I am a little nonplussed as to exactly what Russia might decide was a “threatening to the life of Russia and or her allies” apart from a nuclear attack.”
Simple answer: NATO troops in Ukraine or Belarus would almost automatically trigger such a response, gravitating rather quick towards the ‘To be or not to be, that is the question’ for both sides. The fallout from it would be devastating to the empire on all fronts immediatly in either case, and a boost for Russia if it still exists.
No, they will suck the dollar as long as possible, increase NATO’s spending on equipment and amass troops in Europe in order to keep up pressure – which is always also pressure on Europe – of course !
” which is always also pressure on Europe”
Assay and nuance are always important, including in perception.
“Approximate knowledge” – which is the only “knowledge” option available in the absence of omniscience – is always counter-intuitive, and hence that NATO has been/continues to be primarily a tool to facilitate Oceania with the complicity of local “elites” to maximise opportunities to extract “tribute” is obfuscated by the perceived assay of demonisation of “the other” required to temporarily affect such obfuscation.
“Simple answer: NATO troops in Ukraine or Belarus would almost automatically trigger such a response…”
Seeking simplicity in a complex interactive world renders those so engaged reliant upon the interpretations of others when outcomes diverge from expectations – akin to priesthoods who intercede with the gods and interpret “reality” for the uninitiated to affect their “comfort”.
A useful caution in analysis and interaction is – Do you believe/think your opponent is as stupid as you are?
Apparently you do hold that belief.
“No, they will suck the dollar as long as possible..”
You may attempt to believe that you do not hold that belief by citing the phrase quoted above which is predicated on sole and/or prime agency clothed in the attempt/achievement conflation, and hence once more you illustrate that you do think your opponent is as stupid as you are.
“Your empire is now like a tyranny; it may have been wrong to take it; it is certainly dangerous to let it go. (6)
Sound familiar? ”
Indeed it does, —- sound familiar.
The Chinese could have told the Empire Builders of UK/US Anglos a thing or two – had they been humble enough to listen. They had a saying : –
“He who rides a tiger cannot dismount”.
Summed up in 7 pithy words.
Really good article, thanks.
Pericles: there is also involved the loss of empire and dangers arising from the hatred we have incurred in the administration of it. Nor is it any longer possible to give up this empire – though there maybe some people in a mood of panic and in the spirit of political apathy actually think that this would be a fine and noble thing to do. Your empire is now like a tyranny; it may have been wrong to take it; it is certainly dangerous to let it go.
(Emphasis added.) That was a perceptive observation; I see why Pericles has such a high reputation. Thanks for the quote.
There are certainly parallels between ancient Athens and today. However, I doubt the US would be threatened militarily by other countries if it dropped its empire. The dangers would be economic.
If the US lost its petrodollar empire, the economic earthquake would be devastating to Americans.
If the US kept its empire, the costs could well be even higher, in my opinion. As Pericles noted, the creation of an empire incurs much hatred in subjected peoples; the cost of forcibly maintaining a dominant position will be prohibitive.
So the US is in quite a bind.
FL: The whole sorry episode [of the Pelopponesian War] seems remarkably familiar: deadly examples of overestimating your own strength and underestimating the strength of the opposition.
Indeed.
What if the PTB understand your argument perfectly well and sacrificing the USA has long been part of the plan.
The destruction of Empires does not seem to reduce the wealth and power of those PTB.
On the contrary.
Watch for an exodus of the diaspora as a predicate for a hot war.
Merkel and Bush already have bolt holes prepared in Paraguay, and the private jet setters have second homes in New Zealand. Presumably this is to protect the elite from likely radioactive fallout in the northern hemisphere.
I’m sure the elites, crawling out of their bunkers when they run out of food, will find that “nuclear winter” will have made the planet totally unfit for human habitation. Only the self-replicating robots will survive.
Good article, thanks Francis.
One small quibble: Its not the US that bends the knee to the Jewish state (the zionist entity is practically a zombie nation run by remote control from the City of London & Wall St – the bankers’ head offices. Palestine was given to the World Zionist Federation – not the approx. 50,000 jews who resided in the territory at the time that the Balfour Declaration, 1917 was inked).
Its true that the US political class has been grossly treacherous to the American people – in fact now becoming utterly unaccountable. This happens via the usual tactics of bribery/blackmail/murder/character assassination.
The only real benefit to the US are American jobs and the dividends paid to stockholders from profits in corporations in its military-industrial base: Lockheed, Boeing, Northrupp Gruman, General Electric, Westinghouse, etc, etc who have manufacturing plants for different stages of the production & assembly processes in many different states – which compromises the re-election of each of the states’ senators and congressmen – if they become too vocal in calling for peace or troop withdrawals from any of the US-NATO clients states (1069 bases worldwide – depending on how ‘base’ is defined) or any nations currently under US occupation e.g. A’stan or Iraq).
Lastly, altho I agree with L-445 that the US won’t initiate a hot war – after the USSR’s collapse, 1991, and the subsequent Arab Springs, color revolutions and more recently so-called ‘Condor 2.0′ in S. America – it seems that the Neocons (taking their orders from Wall St & the City of London – the Bilderberg Grp, Trilateral Commission, World Bank, IMF and Bank for International Settlements – all wars are bankers’ wars, remember?) – believe that they’re in the home straight – and they only have Russia, China, Iran, N. Korea, Venezuela & Cuba to subdue to complete their crazed ‘mission’ of global hegemony, i.e. world domination.
So, we’re all not out of the woods yet.
The other development which we could see – given the internal contradictions of Empire, the $US’s dual role being just one of them – is the *momentum* for states seceding from the Union gathers apace and a civil war ensues. This last development is much more likely if Trump gets re-elected due to the body politic of the US being almost at fever pitch.
When an empire starts to disintegrate – nothing can stop it.
‘This is how the [US] ends,
Not with a bang but a whimper.’
(with apologies to T. S. Eliot).
All in all, with Russia & China working together synergistically, the economic integration of the Afro-Eurasian supercontinent (aka world island) is far too well advanced to be stopped now.
Note: Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War is considered so important that its actually taught in US military academies e.g. West Point.
I seem to have missed a name: precisely which country has the author in mind as candidate for Uncle $cam’s Sicilian Expedition?
In Pericles’s famous speech extolling dead soldiers from the Land of the Free, Home of the Brave, he praised their colonialist exploits in Egypt as well as other outposts of the Athenian empire. The Egyptian expedition turned out to be as disastrous as the Sicilian expedition.
The Man from Uncle is currently fighting on many fronts: Syria, Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, Somalia, Indonesia, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Yemen, Serbia. The Man is also on standby in 800 military bases around the world. Is it one of these going to be Uncle $cam’ Sicilian Expedition? Or will it be one of the newer, bigger expeditions The Man is planning: will Nemesis come when Uncle goes to put the boots into Iran, into Russia, into China?
I saw somewhere Plato’s in memoriam to Pericles: “who filled Athens with marble and gold when he ought to have been filling it with justice and temperance”.
Fortunately for Pericles he did not live to see these disasters; he died of plague amongst the insanitary conditions which his war brought upon Athens.
”I seem to have missed a name: precisely which country has the author in mind as candidate for Uncle $cam’s Sicilian Expedition?”
Well you could make an alphabetical list on the US’s ‘to do’ chores starting with Afghanistan. The policy is not a specific political location at any one time and it could be one of many, but the same outcome is usually the same insofar as the policy and methodology and usually the outcome remain the same. Korea, Vietnam followed by next Iran, and who knows. These have all been ‘Sicilian Expeditions’.
LPAC has been discussing “The Thucydides Trap” for 3 decades and how to evade it.
To cut to the chase, that is where the solution of connection and cooperation, as opposed to “the Clash of Civilizations” was generated, in the form of the World Landbridge, New Silk Road/BRI/OBOR, born as an application of Hamilton’s conceptions of internal improvements and proper use of national credit and investment to spearhead the participation of private firms and individuals in the development of the productive powers of labor….creativity and cultural improvement….anywhere.
Not just within the borders of a particular nation…..but the Harmony of Interests principle within one nation is obviously applicable to an extension of such harmony among neighbors….if those neighbors are capable of using their imaginations and freeing themselves from the shackles of the Oligarchical Model………of Empire….and the Hobbesian nightmare of WAR….of Each Against All….with the Top of The Pyramid orchestrating the whole sick and tragic spectacle.
Yet, is is not only the jar heads and knuckleheads in the US military and think tanks and the MIC that violently reject any such notions of “Development Is The New Name of Peace.”
Even many among the areas of the world targeted by the bloodline family purveyors of the several thousand years old Oligarchy Model of Empire are gripped by the notion that the axioms of Eternal Conflict….WAR …the Thucydides Trap Imperial Mind Control of a Parasite playing Each Against All and exhausting one host …..and then jumping invisibly like a cross species virus to another rising host (China…..John4Truth???) are inescapable ….inevitable and thus they can blindly and tragically adopt the not so hidden, actually quite evident identity of Victims of Such Inevitability….either standing outside the struggle of populations rising or falling in vitality and usefulness to the Parasite of Oligarchy, complaining………or rooting for the Underdog…..to take down and destroy the former Top Dogs…and dispatch them into the Oligarchy’s Dumpster of Used Up And Disposed of Dupes Taking the Fall.
This lack of capacity to imagine a solution, such as Lincoln’s poetic formulation of “Ribbons of Steel, Girding The Globe”….rail development ….to outflank the Empire’s Sea Power imperial choke points separating the people’s of the planet and endlessly pitting them against each other ……….in the form of such possibilities as the USA’s joining (GASP!!!!) Xi’s adoption of Lincoln’s poetic imagination….instead of being geopolitically trapped…….and putting The Harmony of Interests into political practice in international relations as well as internally …………is the main Challenge of Our Time to solve…….and to not shrink from creativity, out of fear or incapacity to grasp solutions envisioned scores of decades ago…by rare individuals capable of thinking “outside” the Empire Matrix “box”.
Thinkers in both East and West developed ideas to free humanity from the axiomatic rejection of all former expressions of “Win-Win-Win” in their lust for revenge against populations…whether of the British Isles….or North America……or Germany…that for the most part never quite understood how they were used and then abused by the very few……to unknowingly (or uncaringly!) perpetuate the Oligarchic Model against their own deeper interests as potentially positive contributors to Civilization….used up as marcher lords and criminals and oppressors….and then discarded and given the blame and shame.
Nor are the Crimes Against Humanity (aggressive war being only the most visible!) all “western”.
The “western” Roman model of Empire was borrowed from more ancient seeds of the same old garbage further east…..think “Babylon”….and the Babylonian Captivity….where the “Judeo-Christian” Tradition itself picked up some ancient deadly viruses still active today…..within the populations of persons who at least loosely identify with both religions,,,, and you’ll find obeisance and sacrifice to Baal, Moloch and Lucifer from Hollywood to Wall Street, to the City of London….to Israel……..and to the Vatican………..in Rome Itself.
But is The Horror of The Empire Model…a permanent plague on humanity?
I don’t think so!
Americans and other westerners express horror at Stalin and Mao…and while I don’t think either were pussycats, it is undeniable our industry and vitality were latched onto by The Parasites who have used our blind egos and indifference to suffering billions in other parts of the world to plan a Genocide, a mass murder so enormous that it makes all charges, whether partly real or mostly western propaganda……. against those “cats” into minor misdemeanors……. by comparison to what the dystopian Technocracy of the New World Order psychos intend to impose………. in culling humanity of billions of persons….”by means which are disgusting, but necessary (sic….and sick) as “Dirty Bertie” ….”Lord” Bertrand Russell put it nearly a century ago
I think they can be stopped and a Golden Age making that of the cited Athenian, Pericles….. look like a very fleeting and local Classical Art Festival, in comparison….is in reach within a generation or two.
As a little taste (suspend your disbelief, at least for the few minutes it takes to read the attached Lead…..LOL) consider this excerpt from that Lead reporting on Lopez Obrador’s visit of the past few days:
“The successful discussion between Trump and AMLO, derided by most of the media, is the kind of cooperative discussion that must be held among the leaders of the United States, Russia, China, and India—a discussion in keeping with Trump’s 2016 campaign, when he repeatedly pointed out that a good relationship with Russia and China “is a good thing.” Such a summit is an urgent necessity, to make possible the kinds of large-scale, productive (rather than “green”) projects to develop the infrastructure, manufacturing, scientific, and political platform to drive the economy to a higher level of productivity, which itself requires acknowledging and cleaning up the outrageously overinflated financial values that will collapse nearly instantly if the constant flows of central bank money are turned off.
Needed action cannot wait for the November U.S. election.
The proposal from President Vladimir Putin for a summit of the leaders of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council is an immediately viable opportunity to create the kind of discussion needed. The ongoing assault against President Donald Trump in the United States must be defeated, and the summit must occur as soon as possible!”
https://larouchepac.com/20200710/trump-l-pez-obrador-and-larouche
Never say “never”.
I don’t have much to say about this article except on two statements. I always roll my eyes when I read statements such as that quoted by this writer of one commentator regarding 9/11, that it was blowback because of U.S. meddling. The entire official explanation of this event is fiction. Yet it was used to justify the state of never-ending war which we see today. A war everywhere against terrorism. The PTB are certainly masters of lying propaganda and psychological operations to manipulate the masses. The current plandemic and the way it has been handled and the publics’ willing submission were all expected and planned. see the research papers on the right-hand side at ocla.ca. This is the Ontario Civil Liberties Association and these papers are based entirely on hard data. Hint: there is no pandemic. We have been manipulated just like with 9/11. One think tank wrote a paper if I recall it was Project for a New American Century in which they called for a new Pearl Harbor event. Nearly two decades have passed and the myth persists, justifying never-ending killing and aggression worldwide. If this one event was fully exposed for all to see and understand, the empire would be seen standing publically naked in all its disgrace.
My second quibble would be regarding the statement of the dollar as the world reserve currency: Given that the dollar is the world’s global currency demand will fluctuate. Increased demand will push up the value of the greenback meaning that goods and services exported to the US will become cheaper. However a strong dollar will push up the costs of America’s export producers and lead to a hollowing out of US industry. Hence the Rust Belt.
It wasn’t a strong U.S. dollar that caused the hollowing out of U.S. industry. It was simple greed that did that. Greed by the stakeholders and greed from the unions.
As to the final point in the article as to whether the PTB are crazy or they think they can really pull this off, my opinion is that it is both. They are crazy in a psychopath sort of way. They have no conscience or remorse about the killing of any number of people from any country. I do believe they expect to be able to actually win a nuclear conflict. If America loses a certain number of cities and millions are killed, well, that is the cost of doing business.
Re: Project for a New American Century, this is now part of history and we should learn from it… will we, I wonder. It can now be examined by anyone.
As history, look at 9/11….. the perfect expression of the document cited above, and it worked in starting a series of forever wars. Generally the American people are as stupid or smart as any other group in how they are manipulated by a life of exposure to propoganda/mind-control. So would the Zio-Yanks sacrifice an aircraft carrier and 5000 men and women to a new 9/11 in the South China Sea? Of course, we have seen it before, and no doubt it will be seen as a small cost to get their war against China and the support of 330 million brainwashed Americans. Let’s not forget, the Project for a New American Century was developed by dual-passport Zionists with more devotion to Israel than America, America was just the tool….. they are still there, pushing their agenda. When the US degenerates into a dystopia, the Tribe will jump ship and head to a new host to control, with similar intentions. Any response to the US attack that many expect will have to target not just Washington and New York, London and Brussels, but also Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
One will not hear a more succinct history lesson in 2 minutes and 18 seconds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All in one lifetime. One lifetime! All gone with the wind.
https://youtu.be/zTSEr7HdaP4 via
@YouTube
Back jacket cover dedication here!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://twitter.com/HenryMakow/status/1279117527566647297/photo/1
Not twenty years after that apparent antiwar comment, as President, James Madison declared war on Great Britain, launching the disastrous War of 1812. While “free trade and sailors’ rights” was its nominal casus belli, its true purpose was to seize Indian and Spanish land for the slaveholder lobby, and to conquer Canada, while Britain was mired in its seemingly endless European war.
Canadians handily repulsed the comic opera invasions and Britain finally stopped Napoleon at Elba (only for a year, as it turned out) in 1814 – and then turned the full might of its armed forces on the upstarts who had dared to “tweak the British lion’s tail.” Washington was burned, in retaliation for the American destruction of York (modern Toronto) the previous year. The navy’s effectiveness was crippled by blockade. British amphibious forces struck American targets at will. The war was lost.
Britain agreed to cease offensive operations if the USA would accept a return to the prewar status quo. British peace terms initially included the return of Maine and the northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, and New York, but the humiliated American delegates at Ghent pledged never to invade Canada again, so the proposed DMZ between the two nations was not put into effect.
The first American “peace societies” formed in the wake of the war, as Americans pondered the great cost in lives and money that had been squandered for nothing.
A tough read but a good one as usual Bro. You see the world as I do.
I have noted of late a universal belief that the world is overpopulated.
My own nephew just visited and his nihilism was palpable (we discussed this subject (I tempted him anyway)).
He could see no future other than the eventual annihilation of humanity.
This I believe is bedrock propaganda delivered to us by the devil himself (disguised as a scientist).
As most here will know, this fear has been promoted for over 200 years (Malthus), and it is less true now with 7 billion bellies than it was then with 1 billion.
The demographers predict a peak soon followed by a steepish decline in any case (education, sophistication).
I’ve not heard anybody say so but I think we may already be in decline (eg Chinese fertility = 1.68, USA = 1.77, India =2.44).
Just trying to remember my point……..
Propaganda seems to be a most important tool.
The population delusion is one probably shared by the propagandists. Possibly even their masters.
Dispelling this particular lie could be very important.
It may one day lead to a more humble, reverent and unified humanity.
This was meant to be a reply to Bro93 above.
My mistake.
Greetings Bro.
And compliments to the author. I am enjoying his essays mightily
“This is the way empires die, new empires arise, decline, and they in their turn also die, and this process admits of no exceptions.”
well, as the flying dinosaurs turned into birds, or perhaps as caterpillars turn all those leaves they have munched into butterfly wings, empires do seem to be able to metamorphose into other things that don’t look like empires, or to withdraw the most valuable bits of their empires and keep on going.
I think of the Romans becoming the Roman church; the Dutch cannily shedding their obvious imperial trappings post WW2 but retaining the best part for themselves; and especially the British with their financial sleights of hand whereby they shed the problems but kept the money (cf. The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire). Even the Nazi Reich found ways to send out its mycelium and pop up fruits elsewhere. The Gehlen Group burrowed deep into Western intelligence and took over the reins to an extent not easily quantifiable but undeniable; right-wing political cadres managed to worm their way into leadership positions in Canada (and the USA) today.
Much better heads than I have taken as their subject the many ways that various ancien regimes find to persist and hang on to a lot of their dough, and also influence.
Katherine
Metamorphosis is often conflated with linear rearrangements of elements, whilst often being perceived as lateral transcendence of these elements as in the interactions leaves-caterpillar-chrysalis-butterfly (change of state) within a limited evaluation timeframe, and dinosaurs-birds within a less limited evaluation timeframe.
The political economic “metamorphoses” which you cite are predicated on the contiuance of social relations of coercion perceived as being co-operative, the main facilitator being the perception of pre-existing social relations, and the main vectors being the half-lives of ideologies derived from pre-existing social relations.
To paraphrase Mr. Marx’s thesis on Feuerbach
Dominant classes heretofore have merely sought to reform the world to qualitatively remain the same, whilst subjected classes have often been complicit in conflating reform with transcendence.
“The Gehlen Group burrowed deep into Western intelligence and took over the reins to an extent not easily quantifiable but undeniable ”
Given that the conflations – an answer/the answer- a part/the whole – are popular, obfuscation is facilitated..
A meeting of the Imperial General Staff including alleged “observers” not including the “Soviet Union” was held in London in March 1943 the month after the surrender of “Axis” forces at Stalingrad, to discuss the “post war” world and how to facilitate this on the bases of “spheres of influence”.
As a consequence of the surrender of “Axis ” forces in Italy and Central Europe agreement on or about 1st May 1945, negotiated between Mr. Allen Dulles, apparently representing no one, and Mr. Karl Wolff representing Mr. Himmler and the SS, which by that time had become approximately the successor to the National Socialist state, its component the SD, a minor research component with focus on Ostpolitik within General Plan Ost, which was led by Mr. Gehlen, the SS and its networks not restricted to “intelligence”, became closer collaborators to facilitate the “post war” spheres of influence of “The United Nations” except the “Soviet Union”.
The perception that such collaboration was restricted to “intelligence” by the “Gehlen Group” obfuscated the extent of the cooperation thereby facilitating the wide ranging spheres of collaboration, including how Mr. Axel Springer “sourced” paper in 1945, and Mr. Adenauer temporarily became a patron saint.
In matters of “intelligence” in Central and Eastern Europe ,de facto but not de jure, the SD and its networks became in large part “Western intelligence” in and of Central and Eastern Europe, acting as collaborators not as sub-contractors, although from inception BND has generally been portrayed as a sub-contractor acting under the “control/influence” of “Western intelligence”, an illusion facilitated by their target audience’s immersion in “exceptionalist” notions of prime and/or sole agency.