Al-Jazeera is reporting that military vehicles are circulating around Tahrir square telling people to return inside their apartments and not even lean out of windows. My understanding is that while anti-Mubarak demonstrators are still inside the Tahrir square, they are fewer in numbers (after 9 days many are probably exhausted, if not frightened). I am also getting the feeling that the pro-Mubarak forces are in control of the areas around Tahrir square. Lastly, from the images shown on al-Jazeera, the anti-Mubarak demonstrators are taking absolutely *no* measures to prepare for a possible assault. All these are very bad signs telling me that an assault to re-take Tahrir square by the pro-Mubarak forces could well be successful.
The opposition appears not to understand the ‘rules’ of the insurrection ‘game’. In such a dynamic, the control of symbolic targets, such as the Presidential palace or the main TV station, is absolutely crucial. Simply occupying a big square, even a central one, is far from being enough (Tiananmen anybody?).
I sure hope that the anti-Mubarak forces, in general, and the MB in particular, are not the same type of “clever tactically, absolutely inept strategically” force as, for example, Hamas.
The opposition needs to re-take the initiative very fast if it does not to loose it all.
The Saker
according to Aljazeera, the protesters have managed to hold the square all day and still hold it, despite numerous attempts by violent Mubarak goons to get in. They also managed to disperse pro-muu thugs from many of the square entrances. Also, new pro-Democracy, Pro Egypt people are entering the square to help fight and supply food and water. That is what a proe-democracy protester told Aljazeera anyway. I don’t think they brought weapons with them, so they are at a huge disadvantage in a meelee.
Now I guess none of that would matter if the government starts using live ammo, but I get the impression that the protesters are are doing very well under the circumstances.
I agree, though, that they will have to take key facilities such as state tv, the palace, the interior ministry, etc. But that requires organization and leadership. Meaning it depends on the MB.
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The opposition needs to re-take the initiative very fast if it does not [want] to loose it all.
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Exactly: The moment of truth and sacrifice has arrived. Is the will to take the risk, the consequences, and go for the juglar there or not? If not, it’s over. The West will scream, but the path of receiving martyrdom is appearing as the only way to take this to the next level.
It’s a divine test: Good things don’t come cheap.
Peace
Anon, you are correct.
But from the safety of my computer, I can’t urge others to martyrdom.
I wonder how many Iranians died during the protests against the Shah? I’ve heard several numbers, up to 10,000. The royal army was ordered to fire on protests and many did. Others deserted or shot their own officers. The army fractured and that is what allowed the Khomeini forces to totally change the order.
I suspect, if the Shah had given up early on, the Army would have remained intact and would have been able to thwart an islamic takeover and place in power someone more acceptable to the west (probably not as good as the Shah, but better than now, from the empire’s POV.)
Ironically, the Shah’s determination to hang on for as long as possible is what made the Islamic revolution possible.
Perhaps that is what will happen in Egypt. That will require lots of people willing to fight and die. That is a quality found in much greater abundance among the deeply religious than among leftists and liberals. Not a criticism, just an observation.
But I emphasize, Egypt is a MUCH weaker country than Iran and it will not be able to endure the burden Iran endures.
And I also emphasize that I’m in no position to urge others to their death.
But I pray and Pray for Egypt’s freedom.
I just hope the Army intervenes at least now. It’s high time. I don’t know what they are waiting for though.
@Lysander: That will require lots of people willing to fight and die. That is a quality found in much greater abundance among the deeply religious than among leftists and liberals
I absolutely agree with that observation.
But from the safety of my computer, I can’t urge others to martyrdom.
You are totally correct. However, the choice for the people of Egypt is probably not between safety and martyrdom, but between one decisive battle or many more years of constant suffering. Remember also that the fate of Palestinians in Gaza might also largely be dependent on what happens in Egypt.
I hope and pray that this regime finally goes away without more misery heaped upon the people of Egypt, but I don’t count on it.
The problem is not only Mubarak, but an entire class of parasites which made its wealth from his regime, and the obvious collusion of this class of traitorous parasites and the USraelien Empire.
If only Egypt had its Ayatollah Khomenei….
@Lysander:
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But from the safety of my computer, I can’t urge others to martyrdom.
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Sure. It is up to the people on the ground — and what leadership they have — to decide whether to take that step. We merely observe that that is what it’s probably going to take to get this accomplished.
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I suspect, if the Shah had given up early on, the Army would have remained intact and would have been able to thwart an islamic takeover and place in power someone more acceptable to the west (probably not as good as the Shah, but better than now, from the empire’s POV.)
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I disagree, because Imam Khomeini and his followers had ideological clarity, focus, and tight organization from the beginning. For this and numerous other reasons I’d rather not get into the moment, I think that the following:
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Ironically, the Shah’s determination to hang on for as long as possible is what made the Islamic revolution possible.
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is also not quite correct. OTOH, the roots of that revolution were watered by the blood of martyrs. But many of those martyrs came after the revolution’s success: in the war with Iraq, in the MKO attempt at counter-revolution, etc.
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Perhaps that is what will happen in Egypt. That will require lots of people willing to fight and die. That is a quality found in much greater abundance among the deeply religious than among leftists and liberals. Not a criticism, just an observation.
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That is totally correct, of course.
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But I emphasize, Egypt is a MUCH weaker country than Iran and it will not be able to endure the burden Iran endures.
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That’s what worries me. The institution of a so-called “clergy” with an independent power base played a critical role. Egypt, despite having al-Azhar, does not have an institution quite like that.
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And I also emphasize that I’m in no position to urge others to their death.
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We can only analyze and point out the lessons of history.
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But I pray and Pray for Egypt’s freedom.
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آمين آمين آمين!!!
Amen Amen Amen!!!
Following on Lysander’s prayer, I dedicate the prayer of the Children and Descendants of the Chief of the Martyrs Imam Husayn (S) to the people of Egypt:
اللهم العن أول ظالم ظلم حق محمد و آل محمد و آخر تابع له على ذلك، اللهم العن العصابة التي جاهدت الحسين و شايعت و بايعت و تابعت على قتله اللهم العنهم جميعا
السلام عليك يا أبا عبد الله [الحسين] و على الأرواح التي حلّت بفنائك، عليك مني سلام الله أبدا ما بقيت و بقي الليل و النهار و لا جعله الله آخر العهد مني لزيارتكم، السلام على الحسين و علي بن الحسين و على أولاد الحسين أصحاب الحسين
May Allah guide the oppressed people of Egypt through the light of the severed head of Husayn, the energy of which is still to be found in Egypt. To them do I dedicate the above supplication; to them do I dedicate this visitation.
Peace
Yes, I completely agree with anonymous re: Imam Khomeini, and the ideological clarity of the Islamic Revolution. However, I also think that the people of Egypt, the vast vast majority also has this clarity, the problem is with the leadership that has been timid in expressing the Islamic character of the people.
see http://almusawwir.org/resistance/ for some thoughts on these issues
Thanks a lot Anon. I’m Sunni and not a religious one at all, but I’ve always like this old saw.
“Live Like Mohamed. Fight Like ‘Ali. Die Like Hussein.”
Peace, Brother.
and survive like Zainab