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Saker Message:
Please visit Andrei’s website: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
and support him here: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?u=60459185
I appreciate your thoughtful analysis, Andrei. Thank you. Spaceba.
The only thing that is hard to fully account for is just how much the Arrogance factor, from the u s of lies and arrogance , since the inception (ask the native Americans) of the indespensible nation, is colouring the Reality.
We kept hearing how great the West Hato UKraine is and godddammm I still see these freaking yellow blue rags around . But now BidenHo calls quietly for a …
Negotiated settlement.
Russia won .
So there must be an accurate measure of one’s own blindness in the equation.
Tis the inverse of the need to further the belligerence factor.
Without the American dream, tis a ghost nation.
Bless all people. Pray for peace and sanity .
The wisest thing I heard you say so far is how much you hate war.
You are a kind soul.
The American “Dream” has been eclipsed by the desire to be left alone and that is the true AmeriConned Dream.
Andrei gets it right again. Much better than Scott Ritter, as I writer here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/scott-ritter-is-wrong?s=w
Excellent article and much of it is very plausible and even likely.
Well this article is wrong in one key area too.
New Ukraine cannot be a usa puppet as usa itself is a puppet.
America didn’t collapse economically or socially. America like every western nation or ally fought a fifth generation war and lost.
Now they are poisoned, enslaved, corrupted and fundamentally already dead and gone. The western nations of today bear no resemblance to their former nations found in the 50s
The great enemy that did this to them still exists. They still control their puppeted nations and are very dangerous and not to be underestimated.
Every day I pray to God that Putin truly does stand against these hidden forces of evil that destroyed my birth nation.
Go with God.
Is ISRP becoming less important in the age of energy weapons?
Maybe, it is better to remind oneself, what happened since November-December 2021, and the read letters sent by Russia to the US, and the demand of Russia to NATO, but sent to the US. And, also read what Putin had said then, and in the following months. Also what Lavrov had said too.
Then, find and read what Putin had said in between February 10th to 24th morning, and after that. If you can listen to him in Russian the better. He spoke about denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine and the liberation of DPR and LNR on 24th morning, and not before that time. He didn’t say anything about taking over the Ukraine, or changing the regime, or gave a timetable for those activities.
On the 24th Ukraine got hit and rest is history. The West panicked, and took bad decisions. Neither Putin, nor Lavrov or anyone else either confirmed or disagreed to anything the West was saying, or western MSM was ‘reporting.’ Russia let them keep on guessing, never giving a chance to get the right picture. The collective West had not yet guessed. The panic is still there, and that’s why the push to get Finland and Sweden into NATO.
Russia hasn’t opened the cards yet. The only thing the West can guess is that there is no timeline, and they are not quite sure of even that. The “collective” West is not sure about anything now, for sure! They are adding packages of sanctions, not knowing what to do next.
Russia can keep on the slow grind. This saves the very valuable lives of the Russian and Allied soldiers. Don’t forget that Russia is the only self sufficient country in the world. And, it has things that the world needs, not the other way.
All those foreign ships in Kherson, Nikolayev or Odessa can’t sail out because of the runaway Ukrainian mines, and because Ukraine cannot promise not to shoot at them.
The fertilizer problem is there for the world, so there’d be less food in autumn. There’d be a massive heating problem starting around October in northern and central Europe, mostly in the unfriendly countries. Fuel is already a problem in the EU, except maybe in Hungary. The fourth quarter of 2022 is going to be pretty hard for the EU/NATO. Already the citizens are getting angry. They are going to get angrier and poorer.
Russia is not getting late with the SMO. There’s no time limit for her, but the EU/NATO is getting jittery. Russia can make it even slower, and even stop for a while, and start again, whenever it want. US/NATO satellites can be blown out of the space, if/when needed. Well, there’s absolutely no hurry for Russia. Russia is making the collective West guess, and open their cards in their panic.
Ostro –
Very good summary of grand strategy questions for the next 9 months.
The ability of Western politicians to espouse beliefs completely at odds with geopolitical realities never ceases to amaze. As just one recent example, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi manages to grasp at least the essence of some current realities when he says that “Russia is isolated from the West, but the West is isolated from the whole world.” However, he then goes on to explain that situation as being due to “Western type” systems being “free and democratic” while the world’s “other 6.4 billion human beings live under dictatorships, autocracies, oligarchies, theocracies, authoritarian or totalitarian systems.”
Strange, but I would have thought that “authoritarian, dictatorial and autocratic oligarchies” might describe the systems currently imposed on Western societies quite precisely. It also seems to be precisely what Russia and the “other 6.4 billion human beings” are struggling hardest to oppose. But, then again, I suppose vested interests may account for some differing geopolitical views.
Ref: https://www.rt.com/news/556599-berlusconi-west-bitter-reality/
Once you accept that they are of a generation which was “spared” physics and physicals like Georgraphy at school, and mostly did not have private schooling to make up for that – unlike the generation of, say H Kissinger, you will understand.
They are not stupid.
It is just they NEVER through their whole lifes – often being in their 60s and 70s – had to consider “physics” and “physicals” being a thing. For most of them these days those are “NEW DISCOVERIES” that someone has to pump gas into a pipeline, so, you know, when you open the valve, something goes out of it on the other side.
This is why they seem so utterly clue-less. For they are. No, not stupid. Just clueless. Oh, and gullible. For anyone who has no clue will seem gullible to everyone who has. It is all so simple.
“Math of Geopolitics,”
Perhaps dependent on purpose, the example is better described as a rough tool for sketching of limited facility, which some including https://www.sketch.com/ conflate with “design, collaborate, prototype, and hand-off” in attempt at conflation with a co-operative recurring lateral process of strategic development, instead of “Math (singular) of Geopolitics (plural)” which includes, but is not limited to, such sketches in matters of strategy?
I read an article somewhere, discussing how Russian economy would react to British made counterfeit rubles, as was tried back in 2014. The author advocated it as a boon, rather than a problem- because it would be absorbed in a growing economy, short of cash.
To understand why -please read “The Lost Science of Money” by Stephen Zarlenga, and you will understand how.
It’s free as a pdf.
I am getting the feeling that this war is about to get a hell of a lot worse.
Yes, unless cool heads in the Pentagon deal with the corrupt political swine issuing orders.
Once again tremendous commentary and insights. How anyone using English as 2nd language can speak and write so well is really just astounding, granted he has a tough accent to get used to, but the words are like machine gun bullets on target always. I followed a line somewhere, coming off the link to his blog sight, again, just great writing, accurate and at the same time entertaining with his ascorbic sense of humor, and linked to the Larry Johnson article from the WSJ, and then read on in the comments section which was full of some really great people making astute observations. This is a great crowd following Andrei and his work, it almost makes an American hopeful, we see what is coming and it is like a train and we are tied to the tracks. My close neighbor and I are working down huge collections of firewood, have both installed efficient wood stoves, and the entire neighborhood are growing food crops on every available square inch, while also trying to stockpile non perishables. And getting ready to barter with the Amish. I only wish I had enough property to keep a horse or a mule, something to pull a good cart, but am surrounded by woods so should at least keep from freezing. We are also heavily armed as are most folk in AmeriKKKa, with no desire or plans to attack this godforsaken government, but self defense is on the table.
Horse ? No thank you way too much work.
Get yourself some solid comfortable bicycles with wider puncture proof (resistent) tires. Nothing fancy 3 or maybe even 5 speed internal hub, full fenders. The tires should be just wide enough to be comfy on decent dirt roads – 55mm is about right.
Then set up your bike for real errands – to the rear rack add (2) folding metal baskets. You be amazed how much stuff you can carry with the baskets folded out.
Finally get yourself or make a flatbed trailer to tow behind the bike. There are a few online how to guides how to make your own bike trailer.
The bike used should run around $20 to $150.
The folding side baskets used to be $20 new, bet they are $35 each now but worth it.
Find some really junk bikes for free to use for parts for the trailer.
You can easily cycle 3-4?miles for the typical errand trip into town. That’s why cycling caught on so big from 1880 to 1914.
Edwardi, you are a very wise man!
Andrei Martyanov is OK, if one likes his rough way of writing and speaking, only he lives in Washington D.C., not in Moscow, or any place in Russia. But, still funny to read sometimes. 😏
Please excuse the minor quibble, but Mr. Martyanov said (at 2:14) that he lives in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. He may live in Washington State (God’s Country), not the other Washington, the Imperial Capital, that “wretched hive of scum and villainy”.
If yo want to read funny things, go to a news site which tells us that ukraine is winning. I always laugh my azov when I read that stuff. Ridiculous.
Thanks, Mr. Martyanov. I guess we have the choice between the saccharine-sweet fantasies of the Empire of Lies or the strong drink of reality offered by you and others like the Saker. Thanks for what you do.
I swear the Ukie’s must have sent this giant to Germany to threaten Scholz and Lambrecht into giving them more weapons. All he would need to do is sit on them both (at the same time) to crush them. Like so many of the Ukie Natsik leaders he’s a Western Ukrainian. And in his case,along with his brother a top official in Zelensky’s party in Parliament .I would imagine the Russian/LDNR forces would have a problem finding a rope strong enough for him after the trial:
Kiev hopes to get submarines from Germany
Modern weapons and speedy decisions are key to “common victory” over Russia, the chairman of the Ukrainian parliament says
https://www.rt.com/russia/556601-ukraine-germany-submarines-weapons/
Underestimating Russian economic and military capabilities is why we are seeing the western economies implode right now. This is the result of 30 years of mass ignorance and anti-Russian propaganda.
In short, the west has slipped on its own s**t.
Excuse me, but the implode of Western economies has nothing to do with anti-Russian other than West didnt make it through the night; stoneaging Syria, Lebanon, Iran and then a pre-emptive nuke strike on Russia.
Some kalibr missiles got in the way.
The real background is the Western casino play with their -$300 trillion derivatives.
Its because of incompetent, conceited, swine in US EU UK living in a dreamworld who thought they had won the Cold War when it fact they really hadnt.
They spent themselves in massive debt to achieve the events by 1991 certainly by 2009 with other ventures in Middle East etc.. and cupboard was bare, meanwhile Russia was quietly continuing on at a modest frugal pace.
Who wins a war when the ‘winning’ side is insolvent and the so called ‘loser’ isnt ?
Quite valid and timely discussion, financial leverage people don’t accept physical economy and this is central cause of why they think Russia is merely a big gas station.
I can hear echoes of Lyndon LaRouche’s physical economy, which is the deep end of this subject matter.
Remember, Muller participated in LaRouche’s railroading way before re-emerging to take down Trump years later for much of the same reasons.
They don’t want nationalism and national physical economies to succeed, because western imperial finance are parasites who feed off the bones of countries after deliberately weakening them and privatizing their industries, as Russia witnessed in the 90’s. Now the cabal is cannibalizing its own, having run out of sufficient foreign leaching centers.
This is why LaRouche referred to Green Party philosophy as green genocide decades ago. It’s where the eugenics and population control crowd went to hide after WWII made fascism unpopular.
So-called renewables are a recipe for a new dark age. What we need is a working fusion reactor.
Math of geopolitics is just one aspect – what those in the West (EU particularly) don’t realize is Russia is a difficult place to live and operate in.
There’s things in the water, soil and air that only local Russians can handle. Then there’s the bitter cold winters and even summers in the northern area.
And there unusual things there – this and other incidents where toxic fog and plants killed people.
Even now Russian authorities cannot determine what happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyatlov_Pass_incident
Past attempts to take it over – aka Napoleon & Hitler – would have failed dismally over time even if they had managed to defeat the Russian Army. Their people would have got sick in one for or another.
A comparison is Canada – most people there refuse to live above a certain latitude because the climate too cold and it breeds bugs in the air, water, soil etc… and that why most CDNS live within 2 hours drive of the US border. Only natives live above that zone. It also why Alaska has a small population of 735,000.
So the Russian venture by the West is something doomed to fail.
Better to do deals with Russia.
Further Comment –
When I think about the overall current situation it is a case of STUPIDITY in the West.
Those in EU US and UK who think they can take on Russia and win.
Obama is running the US, not Biden, who is the same age as me and is nothing but a fool.
So are BoJo, Macron and the others.
Apart from the fact Obama has repeatedly lied about is background, education, martial status and record before office he is novice. As are his associates (Brennan etc…).
These guys are nothing but a bunch of clowns.
(And perhaps Putin should offer them a job as such in the Moscow Circus after their upcoming prison terms – in metal cage in the big ring).
This whole UKN situation is and always was destined to fail and cause nothing but disaster (particularly for the normally peaceful ordinary people of the UKN). As per the SMO Sitrep article written 6 June today on this site about the possible liberation timetable of the EU over the next 30 yrs.
The same stupidity was shown from 1941 to 1944 – attacking on a 2000 mile front & particularly trying to hang on to Stalingrad and other battle areas when the forces should have retreated.
But these guys don’t seem to really care as long as they get their payoffs.
And get their names in the media and history books.
They don’t care about the damage to people & property and troops being lost or the $ cost.
So course should be clear – these guys must be taken out one way or another.
It is so tiring to watch this.
This is what we were taught in the Elementary school (grades 5-8 in US parlance) so it seems just too obvious and too primitive a topic to be even worth discussing.
Hey. But this is for the Western audience! So very much necessary.
When your education removes physics /and physicals like Geography/ from across the board, then you are bound to not comprehend the world around you.
Oh, how we hated all the Geography lessons on where Potash is mined, where Iron is mined, where there is a big Steel industry, Where Wheat is produced en masse – yeah as a ratio to the whole world production. How lucky the Western kinds were, being spared all this “crap”. Right.
Right ?