by Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog
Three months have passed since the Sochi agreement on the so called Idlib demilitarized zone. The terms of the deal were that all jihadist rebels labelled as terrorists by all parties to the deal were to be evacuated out of the area. This responsibility would lie with Turkey due to Ankara’s clout among the jihadists. But so far there are no signs of jihadists leaving. As a matter of fact things are looking very much similar to the so called ceasefires brokered by Washington and Moscow, where jihadists used the ceasefires to rearm and regroup, only to launch new attacks and kill more Syrian soldiers and civilians the very next day. Let’s not also forget last months chemical weapons attack on Aleppo by the jihadist rebels. Ankara has essentially done nothing to prevent these jihadists from conducting daily attacks across the so called demilitarized zone and have on numerous occasions been called out by the Syrian government for their failure to implement the deal.
It could be argued that these ceasefires have always served to benefit at least one side of the warring parties, acting more like pauses for each side to lick their wounds and/or rotate troops. In the past, Washington used them to save their beleaguered jihadist proxies in Aleppo as the Syrian Army and their allies were about to break the deadlock after 4 years of battle.
But Moscow and Damascus have also used these ceasefires to their own advantage. When the Turkish-Iranian-Russian brokered ceasefire of last year was implemented, the Syrian Army were given a golden opportunity to move their troops and focus completely on the Islamic State threat, allowing the Syrian Army to recapture swathes of territory. This latest ceasefire came as a result of Ankara’s urging. The situation before the Sochi agreement was very tense, with the Astana process in danger as Syria and her allies were preparing themselves for a final blow on the last jihadist strongholds in the northern parts of the country, a move that Turkey has vehemently rejected and vowed to stop.
At the same time, Washington and its cohorts were preparing a new false flag chemical attack in Idlib to blame on Syrian government forces, creating another pretext for defending their beloved jihadists. As the situation was getting out of hand quickly, with Ankara even plotting to assist Washington with strikes against Damascus, Moscow saw no choice but to put the planned offensive on hold and enter the Sochi agreement with Ankara.
At that moment, it was the right decision for Moscow to make. Things were getting out of hand and needed to be de-escalated. But the poor way this agreement has been handled by Ankara must have the people over in Moscow thinking what their next move should be. Should they give the green light for a new Syrian Army offensive and risk confronting Turkish forces or has Ankara been bluffing all the way to the negotiations table?
Israel steps out of line
The costly mistake that the Zionist regime in Tel Aviv committed on September 17, when they caused the downing of an Il-20 ELINT reconnaissance plane, killing all 15 Russian servicemen on board, changed the situation on the ground. Thinking that it was business as usual, this act of aggression did not come without consequences for Syria’s enemies as this prompted Moscow to arm Syria with the fearsome S-300 missile system. Since then, Zionist warplanes have not entered Syria to attack Syrian and allied forces despite both Tel Aviv and Washington’s initial dismissal of the S-300 system as a non-threat to their air forces.
This begs the question; if the S-300 is a non-threat to their “superior aircraft”, then why have they been so vocal about their opposition to Moscow supplying the S-300 to Iran and Syria? If this system is so useless as they portray it, what does Washington have to fear? Indeed supplying the S-300 missile system to Syria has to be considered as greatly improving Syria’s ability to defend her airspace more efficiently. Should Israel attack Syria once more, they better be prepared to face a more powerful air defence this time.
With the air threat reduced (and Israeli warplanes in danger), Washington is intensifying its presence on the ground. Recently several US representatives, including Mike Pompeo have made it abundantly clear that Washington will remain in Syria until “Iranian forces have withdrawn”, which essentially means until regime change has been achieved. But getting “Iranian forces” out of Syria might not be Washington’s only headache.
A new front is about to be opened
Meanwhile Ankara is mobilizing its forces for a new operation aimed at the US-backed “Syrian Democratic Forces”. Responding to this escalation, Washington intensifies its presence in the north-eastern parts of Syria too.
If one is to believe the latest reports, Ankara has mobilized 14000 “rebels” for an operation in SDF territory. Defense Department spokesperson Cmdr. Sean Robertson was quick to condemn this move.
“Unilateral military action into northeast Syria by any party, particularly as US personnel may be present or in the vicinity, is of grave concern,” Robertson said on Wednesday when asked about Turkey’s announcement. “We would find any such actions unacceptable… coordination and consultation between the US and Turkey is the only approach to address issues of security concern in this area.”
It remains to be seen what Ankara will make of this US threat and how Washington would respond if Ankara starts the operation. Anarchy still rules large parts of Syria. With no end to the ruthless fighting in sight, what does the year 2019 hold for Syria?
It really is difficult to judge the events. Turkey can’t be trusted, ever. If I was to quote one of the Greek Generals (retired?, maybe) Turks do not have a word for apology or being sorry. Also, in the video, which I provided the other day, Karatzaferis said, that he thinks that Rojava will be created in not to distant future, as Israel wants it as well as the US, to have access to the sea for their pipelines (non existent yet). Israel already has plans for pipelines to Europe. He also thought that relationship between Turkey and US will get worse, because of the Rojava plans. I am guessing Russia will not complain, as long as Turkey terminates Israelo-US plans for “Greater Kurdistan” and the pipelines, who’s intention is to cut Russian gas and oil business and thus starve Russia’s economy. Well, sooner or later Russia will have to come to blows with both of these actors.
The gas pipeline from Israel to Europe is a bit of a joke. It would take very little effort to blow this thing up – repeatedly. The fact is that this pipeline has plenty of technical challenges as it is – deep sea, earthquakes and length. If it were damaged, it would be very difficult to repair.
I beg to differ Alfred. An underwater pipeline is much more difficult to “blow up”, or even to approach, than a conventional overland pipeline. You are right that it has challenges and a high cost of construction, but the difficulties are not insurmountable, and who knows what the price of gas will be in 10 years? This proposed pipeline cannot be gauged only financially, it has a significant geopolitical dimension too.
Who knows indeed? Technologies are shifting. In Europe in particular, solar and wind are on the rise and have gotten big enough that even if governments less friendly to them are elected, they will be difficult to stop. Coal is in decline. Expensive liquid natural gas is likely to be next; where I live there is a huge push for LNG plants which in my opinion will end up high and dry not long after they’re built because the stuff will be uncompetitive. It’s hard to tell when demand for old fashioned pipelined natural gas will start to drop, but eventually it will . . . and I expect older suppliers who have paid off their capital costs long ago will have an advantage in terms of remaining viable as prices drop. Oil will probably be last, air travel last of all (if ever). In the end, we may see the bizarre spectacle of airlines owning refineries because nobody else wants them.
All this will have a big impact on Middle East politics. What happens if all the stuff the big countries fight over in the ME becomes irrelevant?
According to the quote of the Greek General Turks can’t be trusted but Greeks can. Greeks just back stabbed Russia by siding with Constantinople patriarch, their so called “Orthodox brothers”. They are used as a cannon fodders by Israel to enable annexation of Mediterranean gas, as we speak. On contrary currently Turks have a very good relationship with Russia and Iran, as Turkey is acting more independently since the US/EU neo-liberal orchestrated coup d’etat attempt two years ago. I don’t think any Greek has to give any lesson to Turkey. First they should clean their own backyard and get rid of their leash from around their neck. Find a better example next time.
Keep in mind that Bartholomeos in Constantinople is a Turkish citizen, served in Turkish army. Constantinople including Aghia Sophia are still under Turkish occupation, if you will, and not under Greek control whatsoever. While you are blaming Greeks for back-stubbing Russians, ecumenical church of Greece did not approve the schism proposed by the Bartholomeos. The hole scenario is orchestrated by Washington and it has nothing to do with Greeks or Greek Church. Just search youtube for: Βαρθολομαίος
Otherwise, the said Greek General worked in Greek Consulate in Smyrni as Military Attache and is fluent in Turkish as well as very knowledgeable in Turkish affairs. Just so you know, Smyrni is in Greek Ionia, still occupied but the Turks. Smyrni was called Paris of the Middle East in 1922, when it was a Greek City.
My apologies, I went and listened to the General, and what he said was this:
Turks do not have “παρακαλώ => please” they have “απαιτώ (istmek istirum => I am not sure if this is how they write those words) => I demand”
Once again my apologies.
Russian partners are granting more time to their u.s. terrorist partners to reinforce their power in Syria. Good deeds are greatly appreciated . There is no changes on the map of Syrian territory, meaning war is over with victory for all.
An increasingly independent (itself liberated) Turkey is not going to allow much longer that a (NATO Gladio) terrorist narco-state is being built in all of Syria east of the Euphrates which was terrorized, occupied, invaded, ethnically cleansed by the US, NATO, Israel, and the Saudis.
https://eurasiafuture.com/2018/11/08/turkey-warns-that-pkk-terror-group-controls-80-of-europes-drug-trade/
Its not what the Turks will or won’t allow,its the Syrians who should cleanse the filth east of the Euphrates,and the sooner the better,they should never have been allowed to get a foothold.
Syria was thrown 200,000 terrorists from ISIS, 150,000 AQ, al Nusra headchoppers, the airpower of 60 nations, the hundreds of billions in Qatari, UAE, Saudi financing of the fake civil war, suffered enormous losses in the early days of the outbreak through massive bombings aimed at assassinating the country’s leadership, and the stripping away of its industrial machinery and materials (taken mostly to Turkey), deprivation of its oil revenues as the terrorists and Kurds took the oil sectors, and suffered 400,000 dead civilians and troops.
So now, you bring a completely ludicrous suggestion that the Syrians should never have lost the foothold.
They fought NATO, tens of billions of arms arranged through Ukraine and Bulgaria sent to the opposition and terrorists.
They fought the US military and suffered enormous losses from aerial bombardment, heavy artillery, even tanks given to the terrorists.
They fought Israel’s missile and bombing attacks.
Wake up and smell the onions, Bloke. Syria was 6 weeks from totally being destroyed when the Russians came to the rescue.
Given the chance, the Syrian people and their armed forces have made one of the most heroic comebacks in human history.
Let the Turks do the heavy lifting to reduce Rojava and the quasi-statelet the US wants for the Kurds.
Then Syria and their allies will get all of their nation back. This is Syria War 2.0. It’s just beginning.
Great response, L445. The things try to accomplish in the comment sections on websites what they have failed to accomplish in the field.
“Given the chance, the Syrian people and their armed forces have made one of the most heroic comebacks in human history.”
Well said.
Much thanks, and love, to Russia for their help.
Very good comment…I also think that the trouble brewing between Turkey and that US-created Kurdish statelet in Syria is ‘just beginning’…
I think as this ‘collision’ develops we may see how deep this fissure between Turkey and its nominal Nato ally really goes…the problem of course is that the US thinks it can do the impossible…build a Kurdish statelet so that they can stay in Syria forever, but not get the Turks boiling mad…it’s not going to work…
We have to wonder also if the US goal is to actually slice up Turkey as well…?…this is not an idle question…’dīvide et imperā’ is the oldest trick in the book…we have seen it applied to each and every imperial US project the postwar era…Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia…it was attempted with the Kurds in Iraq but didn’t work, probably thanks to Iran…we are seeing it applied right now in Syria where the US is doing everything possible to slice and dice the country…Libya is also divided since the Nato regime change…there are many more examples…
Turkey controls access to the Black Sea and Russia’s underbelly…yet in geographic and geopolitical terms the two countries are natural allies…especially considering that the Eurasian trade corridor spanning from China to Iran passes right through Turkey…
What does Turkey really have to gain from an ‘alliance’ with an America on the other side of the world…?…Europe does figure prominently into Turkey’s trade and industry, but Europe itself is realizing that its own alignment with the US is not really making much sense these days…
So one can see that US hotheads could certainly entertain ideas about simply busting up Turkey and taking control of the pieces left over…it would make things so much simpler…
I agree fully that the Turks are going to be doing Syria a favor by fighting the Kurds…it is up to the Kurds whether they will be smart and save themselves by coming back into the Syrian fold…Erdogan has already said that this solution is acceptable and desirable…the only party that doesn’t want this is the US, since they would have to leave ‘Rojava’ if the Kurds recognize the Syrian government’s authority…
Regardless of the Turks’ problematic Idlib presence…their actions in the Kurdish area are in fact a good thing…
FB, well said as the Kurdistan idea is an existential threat to Turkey, which could be facing a loss of possibly 20mln people out of it’s population and portion of it’s land to possible Kurdistan. So, I do not believe that Turkey is going to be nice to US when it comes to it’s integrity. Soviets used to have close ties with Kurds (hybrid war), and many Kurds still wave Communist flags.
Very well said sir.
US Coalition Unable to Complete Defeat of Daesh Near Syrian Hajin – Russian MoD
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201812151070710606-us-coalition-daesh-syria-hajin/
“Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently sent two notes to US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, one of them was about Syria, the ministry stated. The document
“…the US-led international coalition has been unable to complete the defeat of Daesh* terrorist units near the locality of Hajin in the past 6 months”, the ministry said.
According to the statement, 2,000 militants continued to control nine settlements along the east bank of the Euphrates River, where in recent months at least 1,500 civilians have been killed in US-led coalition airstrikes.
The ministry said Shoigu, in the note to Mattis, also focused on the problem of the Rukban camp, where over 50,000 Syrians were trying to survive.
“The American military base in At Tanf and the US-controlled armed gangs in that area are the main obstacles for the Rukban refugees in obtaining the necessary assistance and organizing their return to their former homes”, it said.
The document also expressed deep concern over the growing Kurdish-Arab contradictions, pointing out there was no progress of the US-supported ‘autonomous administration’ on the east bank of the Euphrates in a restoration of peaceful life in Syria, adding that hydrocarbon smuggling, which was taking place with actual US connivance, negatively affected the prospects of economic restoration of the country.”
Syrian War Report – Dec. 14, 2018: Russian Forces Start Siege Of US Base In At-Tanf
https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-dec-14-2018-russian-forces-start-siege-of-us-base-in-at-tanf/
“Russian forces have established several military positions near the US-controlled zone of at-Tanf, pro-government media activists reported on December 12.
A source familiar with the situation, told SouthFront that several air-defense systems and other military equipment were deployed at the Russian positions. More weapons, including heavy rocket launchers, are reportedly expected to arrive there in the upcoming few days.
The Saudi London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat even claimed that Russia is going to deploy an S-300 system to the province of Deir Ezzor. However, this type of rumors is common for the Saudi outlet, which has been actively working to fuel tensions between the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance and the US-Israeli-led bloc as well as between Russia and Iran.
In early December, forces of the US-led coalition employed its M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to fire several rockets at positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the area of al-Ghurab Mount. The shelling caused no casualties but contributed to further growth of tensions in this part of Syria.
Late on December 13, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces made a fresh effort to capture the town of Hajin from ISIS. According to pro-SDF sources, the group is now in control of the town center and clashing with the terrorists in its southern part. Some sources even already speculated that Hajin is under full SDF control. However, this is yet to be happen.
A spokesman for the coalition of pro-Turkish militant groups branded as the Syrian National Army, Major Youssef Hamoud, told Reuters that up to 15,000 Turkish-backed militants will participate in the upcoming Turkish operation against the Kurdish militias – YPG/YPJ in northern Syria.
The statement came as the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) deployed a few dozens of armoured vehicles in its provinces bordering the Syrian province of Aleppo.
Meanwhile, a Turkish soldier was killed in an attack of the YPG near the town of Tell Rifaat in northern Aleppo. The TAF responded to the attack by launching a series of powerful artillery strikes on YPG and SAA positions near the town.
It should be noted that earlier in 2018 a notable number of YPG members had fled from the Turkish advance on Afrin to the areas protected by the SAA near the city of Aleppo. Local sources say that YPG members may attempt to use SAA positions as a shield for their attacks on the TAF. In case of the success, this approach may cause open hostilities between the SAA and the TAF in the area.”
A NATO member country (Turkey) will attack the areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (the SDF). The SDF is supported by another NATO country (USA).
Blackmail. The Anglo-American elites originally wanted to secure a pipeline through Syria running from Qatar. Israel would also like to run pipelines through Syria to Europe. The Empire continues to add occupied territory in northeast Syria and to build military bases. Their presence serves to keep Turkish territorial ambitions in the Middle East in check.
It would be trivial to relocate the NATO base from Incirlik, Turkey to a new military base in northeastern Syria. Doing so would allow the illegal organ trade and the narcotics from Afghanistan to continue to flow to Europe and to other parts of the world unimpeded.
If Turkey stops using the dollar for international trade and aligns with Russian interests, then the USA will allow the Syrian Democratic Forces to train the PKK forces to commit acts of terror inside Turkey. It will also allow the Kurds to form an independent Kurdistan.
Hopefully the Russians do understand that the Turks are not reliable allies…………
In Syria the Entire Nation Mobilized, and Won
https://m.journal-neo.org/2018/12/11/in-syria-the-entire-nation-mobilized-and-won/
“Yes, there is rubble, in fact total destruction, in some of the neighborhoods of Homs, Aleppo, in the outskirts of Damascus, and elsewhere.
Yes, there are terrorists and ‘foreign forces’ in Idlib and in several smaller pockets in some parts of the country.
Yes, hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives and millions are either in exile, or internally displaced.
But the country of Syria is standing tall. It did not crumble like Libya or Iraq did. It never surrendered. It never even considered surrender as an option. It went through total agony, through fire and unimaginable pain, but in the end, it won. It almost won. And the victory will, most likely, be final in 2019.
Despite its relatively small size, it did not win like a ‘small nation’, fighting guerilla warfare. It is winning like a big, strong state: it fought proudly, frontally, openly, against all odds. It confronted the invaders with tremendous courage and strength, in the name of justice and freedom.
Syria is winning, because the only alternative would be slavery and subservience, and that is not in the lexicon of the people here. The Syrian people won because they had to win, or face the inevitable demise of their country and collapse of their dream of a Pan-Arab homeland.
Syria is winning, and hopefully, nothing here, in the Middle East, will be the same again. The long decades of humiliation of the Arabs are over. Now everyone ‘in the neighborhood’ is watching. Now everybody knows: The West and its allies can be fought and stopped; they are not invincible. Tremendously brutal and ruthless they are, yes, but not invincible. The most vicious, fundamentalist religious implants can be smashed, too. I said it before, and I repeat it here again: Aleppo has been the Stalingrad of the Middle East. Aleppo and Homs, and other great courageous Syrian cities. Here, fascism was confronted, fought with all might and with great sacrifice, and finally deterred.”
You’re forgetting about the occupation of NE Syria by Kurdish US proxy forces and actual US forces.