The Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions have once again turned South Caucasus into a hot point increasing chances of a new regional war.
The key difference with previous military incidents between the two countries is that the point of confrontation shifted from the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border. Clashes first erupted on July 12 in the area of Tovuz and since then both sides have repeatedly accused each other of provoking the conflict, attacking civilians and declared defeats of the ‘enemy’.
According to the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan, the fighting started after Armenian forces opened fire on positions of Azerbaijani forces in the Tovuz district. The fighting which included the use of combat drones, artillery, mortars, and battle tanks continued over the following days, including July 17. The Azerbaijani military confirmed that at least 12 personnel, including Major General Gashimov Polad and Colonel Ilgar Mirzaev, were killed. In turn, Kerim Veliyev, Azerbaijan’s deputy defense minister, said that 100 Armenian soldiers were killed, several fortified positions were destroyed and that a UAV was shot down. Armenia, according to Veliyev, is hiding the real number of its casualties.
Azerbaijani media and top leadership describe the current situation as an act of Armenian aggression, and say that Azerbaijani forces are only responding to it. President Ilham Aliyev even called Armenia a “fascist state” adding that “Armenian forces could not enter Azerbaijan in one centimeter of soil and will never be able to do this”.
The Armenian version of events is quite different. According to it, the clashes started after a group of Azerbaijani soldiers violated the Armenian state border in an UAZ vehicle. The defense ministry press service claimed that after the warning from the Armenian side, “the enemy troops returned to their positions”. It added that later Azerbaijani forces attacked an Armenian checkpoint.
As of now, the Armenian military said that it had repelled two ‘offensives’ involving at least 100 soldiers supported by fire of several artillery battalions. These attacks were allegedly actively supported by combat and reconnaissance drones of Azerbaijan. A spokesperson for the Armenian Defense Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that Azerbaijan lost at least 20 soldiers, a battle tank and other equipment during the clashes. Armenia says that only 4 of its service members were killed.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim that their forces are repelling an aggression of the enemy, which has been attacking it and killing civilians. However, despite the harsh rhetoric, the leadership of the both countries are sending signals that they are not interested in a larger military confrontation.
At the same time, years of war propaganda and historic tensions between the nations push the situation towards a further escalation. A unilateral move towards the cessation of hostilities by leaders of either country would be presented by the other one as a sign of weakness and promoted as an admission of defeat. Taking into account the complicated political and economic conditions in both countries, neither Armenian nor Azerbaijani leaders could afford such a public move. Therefore, de-escalation is possible only through international mechanisms.
The situation is further complicated by the complex diplomatic situation in the region of the South Caucasus. Armenia, alongside with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The CSTO expressed its concerns over the situation and called on the sides to commit to a ceasefire regime. Nonetheless, the Russia-led security bloc, and Russia itself, demonstrated that in the current situation they will focus on diplomatic measures.
Since the 2018 coup, when Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia, the country has been consistently undermining its relations with the CSTO and Russia by persuing a quite weak, but apparent anti-Russian and pro-Western foreign policy course. The bright dream of the Pashinyan government is to sell its loyalty to the United States for some coins and commit itself to the way of the so-called ‘European integration’. The issue with this plan is that Washington and its partners need Armenia only as a tool of their geopolitical gains and are not interested in providing it with any kind of military protection or economic assistance. The Pashinyan government is forced to play a double game in an attempt to simultaneously please its ‘democratic’ masters and receive protection and assistance from Russia. This attitude is not a secret for Moscow.
On the other hand, in the event of a large-scale military confrontation, Azerbaijan will be supported by its main ally Turkey, which also has close bilateral ties with Russia. Ankara already declared that it fully supports Azerbaijan and condemned the supposed ‘Armenian aggression’. Thus, in the event of full-scale military confrontation, Armenia will immediately find itself in a very complicated situation, and direct military assistance from the CSTO and Russia will be unlikely until there is no threat to Armenian statehood.
So, the Armenian chances in a limited military conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey is at least shaky. Turkey and Azerbaijan fully understand this. By undermining strategic relations with Moscow, and thus the balance of power in the region, Erevan put the entire South Caucasus on the brink of a new regional war.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region is extremely rich in unexploited gold and metal resources.
Between the Turkish sultan’s need for money due to his failed economic and foreign policies and the Azeri mafiosi Oligarch-run government who can no longer rely on high oil prices to line their own pockets, the poor Armenians are like sheep surrounded by hungry wolves.
Stalker Zone has posted yesterday an interesting article about NATO ratcheting up its efforts to put pressure on Russia after the failed interference to derail the vote about changes to the Russian Constitution.
https://www.stalkerzone.org/attack-on-all-fronts/
As the 5th column obviously cannot do the job, the necessity to challenge Russia in a more direct way arises. This could be done by creating all sorts of military conflicts all along the borders of Russia. The author Yuri Selivanov sees America as being behind the renewed tensions in the Caucasus region.
This video presentation is pretty sloppy. Armenians have given their major infrastructure and independence to Russia with the understanding that Russians will guarantee Armenia’s security from western border attacks, from Turkey. Armenia’s atomic station, gas, electricity, water and everything else is pretty much owned and controlled by Russia. Azeris never gave anything of their sovereignty to Russia or anyone else. As much as Russia does business with Turkey, Russians understand that Muslims can be your best friend today and they can be your worst enemy tomorrow if they get a chance to swallow you alive. Armenians among other things have many things in common with Russia such as orthodox religion, culture and many intermarriages. Russia can lose billion dollar contracts with Turkey this year and get them back again next year. But if Russia loses Armenia in any way, it is going to be a loss forever. And Russia will lose its bases and companies in Armenia, an ally, and their southern front will be wide open for attack or exploitation by Muslims or western powers. Russians have very few friends and they have many problems. They have recently demonstrated that they are long term thinkers and they don’t easily take their enemies baits, specially Erdogan’s baits and Erdogan has learned it to his dismay. As for Turkey helping Azerbaijan, they helped Azerbaijan with 5000 volunteers in 1990’s, and Azeris had help from many Chechens and Afghans and Ukrainian pilots, and a handful of Armenians with less weapons decimated the ranks of pro Azeri forces and totally routed them. This time around Azeris are so much wealthy as a country and so much more corrupt and less willing to fight. They thought that superior Israeli drones and Russian weapons would turn the tide of the war. They are finding out to their dismay that better technology and numerical superiority are no match when God is on the side of Armenians and Armenians are courageous fighters. I personally hope that there will be peace in that region sooner than later and I don’t even wish that both Armenian and Azeri parents need to weep for their dead sons.
Well written. My opinion: all orchestrated by Erdogan.
Galust, you are right on the mark; down to every word.
South Front has totally blown this article with a stunning level bias (not unusual for South Front). It seems that they’re not familiar with the region and the analysis reflects this superficial level.
Azerbaijan started this (probably the buffoon Erdogan had a role) and Armenia firmly came out on top. Your analysis about a permanent loss for Russia if Armenia falls vis a vis a temporary loss from near bankrupt turkey is spot on. You’re right Putin and his men are too smart to take the short-term view: this is reflected in all his geopolitical moves. Russia will stick with Armenia over the cesspool corruption manifest in Turkey and Azerbaijan.
After the 2018 regime change Armenia opened itself to US and EU subversion. What did Armenia gain from it? Very little, except that the insider button pushers in Armenia made a little more money while selling out their country to the West for nothing more than the US identity/gay rights agenda. The US does zero to help with the defense of Armenia and looks the other way while Israel rearms Azerbaijan.
Armenia has little to no leverage left and without Russia will disappear from history. It is in the way of all the energy transit projects of the US and EU in the region while Turkey and Azerbaijan would like to disappear it. To its north is Georgia that is duplicious and running US agendas. Its near allies Iran and Syria are limited in how they can help it. I have seen reports that the US has not just one but six bio labs in Armenia doing the usual US secret weapons research like in Georgia and Eastern Europe. There are reports of strange infections and symptoms in the region.
Armenia has a near-fatal flaw: its diaspora in the West that has internalized western supremacist narratives and is generally anti-Russian and tied into elites in Armenia. I could give examples – such as the editor of the Armenian Observer talking to me in LA while swearing about the Russians. His US centrism was obvious. It is their cognitive dissonance that they dimly know that Russia is all Armenia really has to survive but wanting Armenia to turn to the US and EU and kick out Russia.
They are politically inept – Armenian history shows that repeatedly. Armenia shouldn’t have survived relentless centuries of attack and suffering except for its tenacious and truculent nature and its Christian identity and faith. When the Persian Empire invaded nearly the entire population went into the mountains to live in caves and fought a protracted guerrilla war. The Persian King finally gave up and said he wished he never heard of Armenia.
There are two essential symbols of Armenia. A girl on her knees face down with her hair falling to the ground, and the Phoenix rising from its ashes that most associate with the Greeks but it’s also an Armenian myth. These are symbols of the Armenian inner nature that is obstinate, truculent, that expects and heads to suffering. It is surrounded and penetrated by enemies that are more than happy to provide.
You have stated this so beautifully, Arius.
It’s what I said to my Armenian online acquaintance back when he was piling trash cans to block the streets in Yerevan.
I said, “Have you looked at a map? What are you going to do when your electric utility belongs to a company in North Carolina, and they decide to raise your rates? Are you going to fly to the USA to protest? And will anyone care? Will anyone even notice you are here?”
Of course, it does not matter so much to me, but I was merely trying to talk sense. He remembers the Soviet era, and the even worse days of the ’90s when Armenia knew real hardship.
But I’m pretty sure the USA does not care about Yerevan, and doubt that more than one or two in a hundred Americans can even find it on a map.
You have had concerns something like this would eventually happen. I think it was you who wrote years ago about this neo-liberal cultural event with that song “Happy” with Yerevan dancing to the gay (meaning boisterous not as sexual/political deviance/orientation/preference) tune whilst ominous skies gather up. I feel for Armenia. I as a Serb can relate to the wholesale betrayal of the so-called elites. It seems, like the Serbs, Ukrainians, or Georgians, Armenians too have the same dangerous drive for self-distruction and a great capacity for betrayal. Back in 2018 during the coloured coup in Yerevan I too was afraid a situation like this would have come up. A legitimate concern of populace was being used to wrestle Armenia out of Russia’s orbit. Stupid move. It is a classic example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
I hope that Yerevan is being taught a lesson to learn from which side their bread is buttered and it is not the side that orient itself towards NATO/America regardless how many Agassies or Chers they have. Russia and its cash elites are far far from perfect but in this situation it is only Russia that can protect Armenia.
I am wondering about the specific reasons that Azerbaijan is not part of CSTO. Most of the former Soviet republics joined that alliance early, during Yeltsin. Can anyone here throw some light upon this?
I read an article the last couple of days about an economic corridor being developed by Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan. Tried finding the article and couldn’t. I wonder if this new flare up of Azeri-Armenian hostilities is related to that economic development and was initiated to delay or sabotage this corridor getting developed. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been infected severely with zionazis now and it is in israeli geopolitical interests that Azerbaijan and Armenia remain in conflict.
Pashinyan is playing with fire. Yanukovich tried flirting with the West and we can see the result; Lukashenko tested the waters and almost fell into the US trap; Georgia has been mired in the poop since its Faustian bargain. The sooner Armenians get rid of Pashinyan the safer they will be. If it hadn’t been for Russia, even under its iteration as the USSR, Armenia would have probably ceased to exist.
Without the USSR it certainly would not have survived. Armenia was losing the war with Turkey in 1920 even though in one of the last battles the Turks were stopped by Armenian women, old men, and even priests. The USSR then entered and occupied what was left of Armenia thus protecting and saving it until 1990 even though Stalin sliced away parts of it.
All that can be hoped for now is that somehow the people of Armenia muddle through with enough luck to depose Pashinyan, kick out the US and EU, and look to Russia. The path they are on is suicidal. Armenia is in the way of energy projects desired by the US/EU/Turkey/Azerbaijan. All the big economic projects like the silk roads, north/south rail, pipelines, all go around (bypass) Armenia that is being starved of development.
Russia has troops on the Armenian border with Turkey to prevent any incursions. Armenian troops man the eastern borders with Azerbaijan. If Russia gives up on Armenia and pulls its troops out then start the clock on the end of Armenia. Russia is a major owner of the Armenian economy – is that enough to keep Russia in Armenia as it keeps slipping into the perfidious US/UK/EU?
A reasoned analysis by David Davidian in this week’s Intrepid Report.
http://www.intrepidreport.com/archives/30364