The Azerbaijani Armed Forces have been developing their advance on Armenian positions in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. On October 19, they captured 13 more villages in the Jabrayil district. The capturing of Soltanli, Amirvarli, Mashanli, Hasanli, Alikeykhanli, Gumlag, Hajili, Goyarchinveysalli, Niyazgullar, Kechal Mammadli, Shahvalli, Haji Ismayilli and Isagli was personally announced by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Early on October 20, Azerbaijani forces also reached the town of Tumas and engaged Armenian units deployed there. Pro-Azerbaijani sources insist that the town already fell into the hands of Baku.
The country’s defense ministry claims that in the recent clashes Azerbaijani forces destroyed a number of enemy troops, at least 2 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 “Grad” MLRS, 1 D-30, 1 D-20 gun-howitzers, and 11 auto vehicles.
On October 19, pro-Armenian sources for the first time provided video evidence that they had shot down at least one of the Bayraktar TB2 combat drones operated by the Azerbaijani military and Turkish specialists. Meanwhile, the Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that 5 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down during the evening of that day only.
According to the Armenian side, the total number of Azerbaijani casualties in the war reached 6,259. 195 UAVs, 16 helicopters, 22 military planes, 566 armoured vehicles and 4 multiple rocket launchers of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan were allegedly destroyed. Yerevan claims that the Armenian forces have repelled two powerful attacks in the northern part of Karabakh, while intense fighting has been ongoing in the south. Nonetheless, Armenian military officials avoid confirming the recent Azerbaijani advances and insist that the recent developments are just a part of modern maneuver warfare. By these claims, the political leadership of Armenia tries to hide that the Azerbaijani advance along the Iranian border faced little resistance.
The Azerbaijani progress was mostly complicated by a limited number of mobile Armenian units, which were avoiding a direct confrontation and focusing on ambushes and mine warfare. According to reports, the Armenian side is now reinforcing its positions in the area of the Akari River seeking to prevent the further Azerbaijani advance towards the Armenian state border and the Lachin corridor.
On the other hand, the goal of the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc is to overcome this resistance and to develop the current momentum to reach the Lachin mountain pass thus threatening to cut off the shortest route between Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. In the event of success, this would predetermine the Azerbaijani victory in the war. Military hostilities are ongoing amid another round of international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation and return the sides to the negotiating table.President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that they are ready to meet in Moscow. The Azerbaijani leader even said that his country is ready to halt the operation if Armenia demonstrates a constructive approach. Nonetheless, the ‘constructive approach of Armenia’ in the view of Azerbaijan is the full and public surrender of Karabakh. Such an agreement will mark the collapse of the current political leadership of Armenia and is unlikely to be accepted.Therefore, the war will likely continue until the military victory of one of the sides and that side would likely be Azerbaijan.
Baku has already achieved an impressive breakthrough on the frontline if one compares the current situation with local military escalations in the previous years. As to Armenia, it will not likely be able to turn the tide of the conflict if it continues limiting its response to indirect support of forces of the Republic of Artsakh instead of a direct military action to repel the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc. Clashes of the previous weeks already demonstrated that Baku has an upper hand in the current format of the military standoff in Karabakh. Therefore, if Yerevan really wants to change something, it should change the rules of the game even if this would create additional risks for Armenia itself.
“The capturing of Soltanli, Amirvarli, Mashanli, Hasanli, Alikeykhanli, Gumlag, Hajili, Goyarchinveysalli, Niyazgullar, Kechal Mammadli, Shahvalli, Haji Ismayilli and Isagli was personally announced by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.”
Yes, at the same occasion he also personally announced the destruction of 2 armenian Yars units (intercontinental ballistic missiles)!!!
As if anything “personally announced” by Aliyev had any meaning. Southfronts reports are getting dumber by the day. From the beginning they tell us that Azerbaijan has the upper hand, Azerbaijan is winning etc. And now we arrived at the “last chance” for Armenia (btw, how do they know this is their last chance?)
But I am very grateful that the great experts of Southfront show the way out of the unavoidable desaster for Armenians. I hope the Command of the Armenian Army will listen to them. This is their very last chance! LOL
Not sure why Aliyev thinks Armenians would have intercontinental ballistic missiles and present them to be destroyed.
I have a proposal. An outrageous proposal to be certain.
I propose that both Armenia, and the broken off piece of Azerbaijan both rejoin Iran. Then there will be no reason for war.
This would result in a wonderful outcome. All Azarbaijanis would be happily united! Also, all Armenians in Armenia proper will be joined with the more than half a million Armenians who live in Iran today!
It would also elevate their standard of living considerably. I thought Iran was a shithole, but then I saw Armenia and rural Azerbaijan.
Some suggestions for Armenia which carry the risk of total cynicism, go low tech:
1. pray for early snow
2. train eagles to hunt Israeli UAV’s
With UAVs snow is even worst, as tracks are too much visible.
The flat terrain has been difficult to defend and the Afrin like progress by the Turkish/NATO offensive was predictable. The offensive on the mountainous areas has not been very successful and with the retreat from the flatlands into the mountains is a wise move.
There are a lot of emotionally based comments in this blog on the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict siding more with Armenia, which is understandable. However many comments are not based on reality or objective analysis. This is why I’m itching to write a SITREP on the situation.
Just some findings from very preliminary analysis:
– The Azeris are fighting two different combined forces: the Artsakh Defence Army (estimated active personnel around 20-25 thousand + 25 thousand reserves) and Armed Forces of Armenia within NK (estimated at 20-30 thousand inside NK).
– Both sides are exaggerating the other’s losses….For example, assuming South Front is accurately citing the numbers the Armenians have claimed, the Armenians claim in the above article to have shot down 195 UAVs. This is a very high number. For comparison, the entire drone inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces does not exceed 150 drones. Even if you include all non Turkish drones (Israeli and Chinese) the numbers still seem too high.
– The Armenians are heavily under-reporting the losses, however the numbers could be reasonable if the Armenians are not counting the losses of the NK forces, which are substantial. The Azeris are not even reporting their losses, which is to be expected since they are the attacking side and do not want to look bad.
– The air superiority shown by Turkish/Azeri drones has been devastating on the NK and Armenian forces assuming the video footage that the Azeris are making public is actually what is happening on the ground. This is only what they have publicly made available. We do not know how many more strikes have actually been carried out.
– The use of ballistic missiles by NK forces on civilian targets within Azerbaijan has been confirmed, most likely as a retaliation for Azeris using the Israeli made LORA ballistic missiles (confirmed by videos) on NK targets, including rocket shelling of the NK capital. Azeris claim that at least one of the four ballistic missile attacks originated from Armenia proper, however Armenia denies this and it has not been officially confirmed.
From a military point of view, unfortunately a very fascinating war, with an almost unprecedented use of drones in terms of number and variety. It is basically a testing ground for multiple drone manufacturers. Israeli drones are even being manufactured in Azerbaijan. Many countries are observing this “drone war”, including China, India, Australia, Taiwan, etc…. Swarm drones are also being developed as a next stage in penetrating enemy defenses. China is in pole position in this regard.
Thanks Harry. Very good take on it. Yes the “drone wars” have commenced. Next up is to make the drones with more independent decision making and intelligence and then you just let the drone determine which targets to destroy? Sort of like land mines but flying ones or waiting in trees.
The swarm drone attack will be the undoing of a lot of high priced military strategy. Imagine 100,000 wasp sized drones with one lethal dose each and enough smarts to detect foreign forces from friendly and civilian.
Most, probably all, forces who will become capable of fielding wasp-drones don’t shy away from collateral damage. The current empire, from time to time, declares that its strategy is primarily to inflict death, misery, and destruction on civilians. They will use them like depleted uranium and landmines : dump them where people are likely to wander, then go away and forget. Sort of an extreme case of loitering munitions.
For the time being, surely some folks are working with ‘killer bees’ and ‘murder wasps’.
Harry_Red
What we need is a Sitrep in the same vein as those written by LeDahu and NatSouth on naval matters; matter of fact, as is, type of writing. Authors’ personal opinion clearly pointed out in their analyses.
I like SF but it must be said that there’s a change in their style of reporting lately. Don’t know whether it is intentional or not, but yes, there seems to be a bias against Azerbaijan/Turkey.
Go ahead with your Sitrep then. I’ll certainly read it.
Since the beginning of the new phase of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, about 5 thousand people have died on both sides. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his speech at the Valdai Forum.
https://en.news-front.info/2020/10/22/putin-said-almost-five-thousand-people-died-in-karabakh/