Azerbaijan is slowly but steadily gaining an upper hand in the war with Armenia for the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
As of October 5, the Azerbaijani military, supported by Turkish military advisers, specialists and intelligence, captured the towns of Jabrayil, Mataghis and Talysh after heavy clashes with Armenian forces. Azerbaijani sources also report the control over multiple villages including Ashagi Abdulrahmanli, Mehdili, Chakhirli, Ashagi Maralyan, Sheybey and Kuyjagh. On the other hand, the Armenian side confirmed that it lost ‘some positions’ but did not provide details claiming that the situation on the frontline has been rapidly changing.
Stepanakert, the capital of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, other populated areas and civilian targets in the region have become a target of regular rocket, artillery and drone strikes. The Azerbaijani military extensively uses cluster munitions, heavy artillery, rocket launchers and even Israeli LORA theater quasiballistic missiles while simultaneously accusing Armenia of intentionally striking civilian targets in Azerbaijan.
For example, on October 4, the government of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic announced that Armenian forces had destroyed the military air base near Azerbaijan’s Ganja. This air base, according to the Armenian side, hosted F-16 fighter jets from Turkey. Azerbaijan indirectly confirmed the incident but insisted that Armenian strikes hit Ganja city only. In its own turn, the Armenian military denounced the Azerbaijani claim saying that only the military base that was hit.
In the comments from October 4, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Azerbaijani forces are “chasing” Armenians like “dogs” and demanded the full withdrawal of Armenian forces, the Armenian recognition of Karabakh as a sovereign Azerbaijani territory and an official apology from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the Azerbaijani nation.
On top of this, Aliyev emphasized that a military solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh question is on the table and criticized 28 years of unsuccessful negotiations. In his remarks, Aliyev apparently cosplayed Turkish neo-Ottomanist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that over the past years has been used to employ rhetoric of this kind and provide a hard power-based realpolitik in the Greater Middle East. Turkey is a natural strategic ally of Azerbaijan and extensively backs it in its war with Armenia.
A day earlier, on October 3, the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan made his own address regarding the war saying that Nagorno-Karabakh has been fighting against “an Azerbaijani-Turkish terrorist attack, the volume and scale of which is unprecedented.” He said that the Azerbaijani operation is controlled by “150 high level Turkish military officers” and claimed that the end of the current conflict can only be victory on the Armenian side. As for now, it does not look that this forecast is realistic.
The ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani war has likely become the first military conflict of such a scale between two state actors of a comparable power. After the first week of war, it was already clear that the final number of casualties will be counted in the thousands.
While so far the Azerbaijani side has not demonstrated any miracles in ground warfare, it has once again demonstrated a successful employment of the concept of the wide-scale usage of unmanned aerial vehicles: reconnaissance, aerial targets, loitering munitions and drones carrying bombs and missiles. This allows the Azerbaijani side, with an apparent help from Turkey, to successfully detect, uncover and strike Armenian artillery and fortified positions. Regardless the reality of Armenian claims about the supposed usage of Turkish F-16 jets to cover the employed UAVs, the Azerbaijani side has gained full control over the air dimension.
In its own turn, Armenia had time to conduct extensive engineering work preparing a wide network of fortified positions across the region. This allows Armenian forces to keep their positions in many areas despite the air dominance of Azerbaijan. Up to 80% of casualties on both sides are a result of rocket, artillery or air strikes.
Nonetheless, forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republics and Armenian units (which Erevan calls ‘volunteers’) are an underdog in the event of a large-scale prolonged conflict with the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc, even if Armenia openly enters the conflict. Therefore, the outcome of the war will significantly depend on the ability of Azerbaijan (with help from Turkey and its mercenaries/militants) to use its air and numerical advantage to develop the advance and make some gains while the regional diplomatic situation allows this. The balance of power could also change if some third party would intervene in the conflict to put an end to the violence. Such an action could become a response to some irrefutable evidence of ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population in the areas of Azerbaijan or the increasing deployment of members of various Middle Eastern terrorist groups to the region.
Pathetic. Iran failed. Russia failed. Turkey will get access to the Caspian sea. Most likely they threw Armenia under the bus – for Turkey’s cooperation in Syria.
It’s all business.
On what legal basis can Russia activate CSTO, when not even Armenia recognises the disputed territory as its own province?
On what moral basis should Russia deploy troops, when (a) Armenian betrayed Russia in 2018, & (b) neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey (this time at least) have killed Russian troops?
Oh. On what moral basis this and that… and the turks and Russia gets even more encircled. Do Armenians need a bashing? Yes… But to lose the region is almost as bad to Russia as to Armenia.
You’re right. And to Iran too.
This whole excuse that “Russia must punish Armenia” is infantile. It seems to have been a last ditch excuse dreamt up by Putin apologists to excuse his absolutely criminal negligence in not preventing this war, which, let me repeat, he could have with a few phone calls before it even started.
Oh. On what moral basis this and that… and the turks and Russia gets even more encircled.
Since you are screaming for Turkish + Azeri blood, are you willing to go down there and do the killing yourself? Like it or not, Vladimir Putin answers to the Russian people, NOT to you. That means there must be a legal basis to justify sending in Russian military forces. Since Nagorno-Karabakh is not even recognised by government in Yerevan as sovereign Armenian territory, on what basis does Russia directly intervene? Should Putin claim that Azerbaijan is “sovereign territory of the Soviet Union?” Good luck with that…
*************************
As of right now, I believe the only legal way CSTO can deploy military forces is if they go directly into Armenia, and fortify the legally recognised territory of Armenia. From there the entire Armenian military, if the Armenian government so decides, can focus on Nagorno-Karabakh. But again, what would Putin demand in exchange? (He surely cannot accept the status quo where Yerevan continues to be pro-USA.)
“… Vladimir Putin answers to the Russian people …”
No. To the owning domestic power structure that keeps him in power. The same way that Trump, Merkel, Macron, Johnson at al. all answer to theirs own.
“… Armenia[n] betrayed Russia in 2018 …”
The thing one might ask here first is: specifically who in Armenia betrayed specifically who in Russia? The Armenian regime was unfaithful to the Russian regime? Neither one of these shamelessly opportunistic two to be confused with the great peoples that they rule at the moment. Rule, of course, through will & mercy of the respective all-wealth-owning oligarchic structures that installed them to represent them. Just as in every other capitalist country on Earth. The opportunists squabble while the people are dying.
“Iran failed.”
Iran cannot fight a war in every country in the region.
Iran has three provinces right next to the country of Azerbaijan, populated by the same ethnic Azeri Turks as Azerbaijan. They are Ardebil, East Azerbaijan, and West Azerbaijan.
This is a very delicate situation for Iran. The Iranian Azeris will not accept anything but complete Iranian support for the country of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan, ancient Atropatene, was taken from Iran by Russia, together with most of the Caucasus region, in 1813.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Gulistan
Russia could not hold on to the region, which in my opinion is ultimately what brought on this shitshow.
In fact the last thing Iran needs to do at this juncture, with the sanctions regime imploding, is get involved in this fight in any way. The EUslaves will jump at the chance to ingratiate themselves with Warshington by switching sides and backing sanctions.
How are the sanctions regime imploding?
Even if the EU decides to do business with Iran, the banks are still in the way.
After the sanctions were lifted following the nuclear deal, many European companies attempted to start working here. They discovered that no digital financial transaction was possible with Iran.
I remember some Israeli newspaper running a headline that went something like “Now Iran wants to be let into the same banking network that they’ve been promising to destroy.” Or maybe it was the wall street journal, same thing.
I think even the EU officials were a bit surprised and caught off guard when they discovered that the banks would not comply even though the sanctions had technically been lifted.
We’ll find out what they do now after 18 October.
However, the last thing Iran will do is give the EUpuppets any excuse to back out.
https://www.state.gov/the-return-of-un-sanctions-on-the-islamic-republic-of-iran
If the sanctions fail come October 18th, it will make a global spectacle of US weakness. Will they let that happen?
I guess we will see.
”Armenia betrayed Russia, so they deserve this”
No, it was the incompetence of Russia for still not creating mechanisms to avoid color revolutions around its borders, color revolutions succeeded in Ukraine and almost in Belarus, come on? Are you still not ready for them?
Also, sometimes Russia must look at the mirror, because supporting a corrupted elite just because they are ”anti-west, pro-Russia” does not make sense at all.
If Turkey and Azerbaijan WIN, be sure, Armenia will seek NATO membership, Turkey will get access to turkic lands and Russia will lose face big time, because Armenia is the most pro-Russian nation in the caucasus, they don’t deserve such fate because of some SMART liberals elite who took control from corrupted, stupid and incompetent pro-Russian leaders…
Unfortunately for Saker and Saker’s readers, your sources are based on Azeri Fake News…they are Not verified and are far from the reality on the ground. None of the cities, Fizouli, Agdam, etc, are retaken by Azeri forces. They remain under Artsakh control. Armenians are not hitting civilian targets, unlike Azeri and Turkish side. Three million Armenians against 80,000,000 turks and Azeris…David and Goliath, and guess, who is winning…Azeris have lost over 370 tanks in about seven days of fighting. Over 3000 known killed, and multiples of that wounded…Besides, tanks, airplanes, destroyers, drones etc. in hundreds…I ask you, who is winning in this war, as of today. I assure you Azeri’s and the turks are known for lying to their own people, therefore, they have turned off all their internet services, no freedoms to speak of…the Baku airport is Closed to foreign journalists…no visitors, People have no access to international news and any rights to find out where their loved ones are…Azeri army does not even go after their dead soldiers…Anyway, I expect a lot more than to read bullshit fed to you by Erdoghan and Aliev.
You are right. From the beginning the Azerbaijanis tried to show that the Armenians were the ones who started the hostilities but it is already known that they were the ones who attacked with everything. The truth is that there is no certain information about what is happening. If anyone has a reliable source please post it.
You are right about 90%. Azeri and Turkish military campaign in NK is not going very well for them.
Aliev should agree to get russian and SCTO peacekeeping groups.
If they fail to retake NK, this time, they can say good bye to Nagorno Karabah permanently and FOREVER and that could cause political crisis in Azerbaijan.
Both sides are lying all the time, but Azeris and Turks are lying BIG TIME.
Russia quietly help Armenians. And Armenians should get good lecture from this. Only alliance and honest friendship with Russia can ensure their survival.
Not West, not America and especially not Soros
Yep, Russia should just stalemate the situation in Armenia like they have done elsewhere. Just some anti-aircraft assistance and artillery and satellite intel and then things return to normal. Maybe even extend matters in order to bankrupt Turkey and Azerbaijan.
It seems that turk- azeri claims about their military gains are unreliable. I saw some reports that Russia was supporting Armenia with intel and weapons. A swift victory for the azeri side seems impossible in this light.
The situation is not just utterly predictable (I repeatedly predicted that it would happen right here in this forum) but the map here:
https://southfront.org/turkey-and-azerbaijan-setting-up-diplomatic-ground-for-seucring-desired-victory-in-war-with-armenia/
shows exactly what is going on. Bypassing the mountains, the Azeri-Ottoman-headchopper alliance is moving on Nagorno Karabakh in a pincer movement from North and South through the Azeri territory occupied by Armenia since 1993. Taken in conjunction with the attacks on civilians, the idea is clear:
1. Use Idlibistani jihadi headchoppers as shock troops to spare Azeris from taking casualties that would be unpopular back home. In the meantime the Ottomans secure air control.
2. Bypass fortified Armenian positions and impose unacceptable attrition rates on the strictly limited number of Armenian forces that can be sent to the front lines. That Armenia is begging for reservists to enlist is proof enough that it’s already scraping the manpower barrel.
3. Attack cities to provoke an exodus of refugees into Armenia. No sane Armenian will want to live under the tender mercies of the Ottoman-jihadi alliance, let alone vengeful Azeris seeking revenge for their own ethnic cleansing thirty years ago.
4. As the pincer movement develops, threatening to cut off Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia, the civilian refugees are expected to get out en masse, leaving the remaining defenders with nothing to defend and no desire to continue fighting for a lost cause.
It’s a fairly simple and easy to predict plan, and it’s going more or less unhindered. Armenia cannot, I kept saying, hold out, their lines will implode at a critical point. That point is here.
Now what? Pashinyan hasn’t even recognised Artsakh, which just might have given him some kind of legal basis for appealing for aid to Russia. Without the Azeris attacking Armenia, something that I also said they would never be stupid enough to do, the CSTO defence treaty isn’t enforceable, even if Putin showed any interest in enforcing it. Even Pashinyan must know that Armenian Nagorno Karabakh is finished without immediate Russian action, but he’s not taken the slightest concrete step that might secure any action. So is he planning to blame the defeat on Russia and run to sign up with NATO? (This is again something I predicted when people talked about “punishing Armenia”. Without the territorial conflict there is no bar to Armenia joining NATO so he may want to lose.) Even if he doesn’t, Armenia without Nagorno Karabakh is hardly of significant advantage to Russia.
And what happens to Nagorno Karabakh? The Ottomans most certainly won’t just let it stay unoccupied. They’ll claim it needs defending from Armenia, station troops there, and more likely than not jihadis as well. Just like the Uighurs Erdogan imported from China and put in Jisr al Shughour, proving that he’s got no problem with settling headchoppers as colonies.
So this is what we’re looking at: an ethnic cleansing of Armenians from “Artsakh”, an Ottoman protected jihadi headchopper ministate there, and a NATO Armenia.
What a state of affairs.
“… What a state of affairs. …”
While His Majesty, “The Chess Grand-Master & The Paragon Of World Diplomacy & Nobel Peace Prize Nominee & The Never-Questioned Object Of Mass Adulation Here”, is doing his usual thing:
not doing a thing.
“Thinking” that is the safe thing.
Hmm … why is the sorry memory of that West charmer Mikhail Gorbachev persistently popping into one’s mind?……..
True.
The empire put it puppets in power in both countries then started a nice new war on Russia and Irans borders – And Russia sat back and did nothing as usual.
Ok, almost all countries in former eastern block were happy to get rid of Russia and lean toward west. But, when they start to realize that western neoliberal democracies selling them literally a fog and creating problems within, they start asking for help from Mother Russia.
Whoever signs pact with the devil (EU,USA), I don’t have compassion for them.
However, Russia has to stop Turkey which is a cancer in that part of the world. It will happen, but only on Russia terms.
I’m sorry for Armenia, but it is not Russias fault for having too many auto chauvinist same as Serbia, Bulgaria,Macedonia, Malorussia, Montenegro and other so called quasi orthodox countries.
It’s not true. Serbia was at war and waiting for the Russians who had been “working on transition”. Milosevic’s family ended up in Moscow, where they, I belive still paid rent from the stolen money.
Further, serious realpolitik has nothing to do with the feelings of the people. It is about the geostrategic goals of the great powers. Today in global village, interests on the pyramid of several levels so that they can share more or less the same position with other regional competitors, BUT what is important to emphasize….under the same system of bosses (top of the pyramid). As long as the regional players implement what the global bosses ask for, the bosses do not care how regional players will share power on the field. In a moment it is a matter of world quarreling with the Anglo-Americans who must hand over their share of power to other players gained by the fall of the Soviets, who also want their share of the earnings. To control a certain part of human raw materials on the stock exchange. However, here is something else in game. Israel is weaving a web around Iran, and the Russians do not wont to play with them like the Soviets used to play with Palestine. They prefer to work with them like in Syria. At the same time, Turkey is making enemies everywhere in the region. Erdogan is a globalist player who is leading Turkey to ruins with his “Ottoman nationalism”. They support for a moment his politics, the same thing they did to Serbia with Milosevic, Iraq with Saddam etc ……but eventualy the stage will be set up.
Furthermore, the will of the people can be imposed by force as we have seen from the Soviets, the Germans or the Turks. Russians know how ti do that, however Putin is not that kind of calibar, he was not therefore brought to power. He is Valdai manager.In my opinion, Russia’s problem is that it does not know or does not have momentaly a staff in power that knows how to do coup d’etat like the Americans are doing. In their interest. They still study the way or have no interest learning it. They have already caught up with the Anglo-Americans in soft power, more precisely in the media. They learned the english school … balance of power (what else they sell to the peoples of the Caucasus and the Balkans)….. but they don’t know how to do fine manipulation without big victims. That’s why, they justify themselves that they not interfere in the election results and work with the governments elected by the people, even though they know that elections were rigged. Probably they can’t admit that they don’t have enough agents on the ground to set up elections so that they get what they want. At least not in all countries. The Chinese, Indias and others are still behind the Russians on the pyramidal scale. in other places like Serbia where they have enough logistic on the ground, they just don’t want to, because they have an agreement on sharing spheres with partners.
Sadly, I’m starting to agree. My great grandmother who lived in Greek-occupied Macedonia used to say how Macedonians waited for Russian boots to come and free them from the Greek chains. They never came.
“My great grandmother who lived in Greek-occupied Macedonia used to say how Macedonians waited for Russian boots to come and free them from the Greek chains. They never came.””
Liberated from the greek chains? lol
The area of Macedonia was under ottoman occupation before the Greek & Serbian army expelled the Ottomans in 1912-13 during the Balkan Wars.
if Macedonia is under Greek chains, what about the Ottoman chains?
Macedonia was under the totalitarian control of Ottomans, not a particularly “liberal” regime.
If Greece had not expelled the Ottomans from Macedonia, it would probably be a Turkish province today and all other Christian populations would have been expelled (as Turks did to greek cypriots in Northern Cyprus or what they did with the sizable Christian population of Ottoman Turkey such as Greeks, Armenians, Assyrians etc)
And the area of Macedonia was and still is a multiethnic, multilingual and multi-religious region, it did not belong just to the Slavs of Macedonia.
There were Greek speaking people, Christian & Muslim Slavs, Bulgarians, Albanians, Aromanians / Vlachs, Turks, Romani and of course a very sizable population of Jews in Salonica.
Also, as of 2020, in the country of North Macedonia (previously known as FYROM), there is a sizable population of Albanian. s as well as Turks, Romani, and Bulgarians that constitute close to 40-45% of that country. In Greek Macedonia too there are areas with Aromanians/ Vlachs, Christian Slavs, and Albanians.
And ancient Macedonia and Salonica (or Thessaloniki) were historically Greek. Even during Roman (“Byzantine”) times, they were Greek speaking areas of Roman Empire and Salonica was a cultural and economic center of (Eastern) Roman/Byzantine Empire (which was multiethnic but linguistically greek and Christian orthodox). Of course, numerous Slav people settled during the middle ages as well as other populations.
But lets not distort history and claim that Alexander the Great was a Macedonian Slav or that Greece occupies Macedonia.
There is no end to that, but if we go to that route then Turkey has no legitimacy at all as a country (as well as many other countries)
We’ll leave the truth about Macedonia to the Macedonians. And by the way, the real history of Macedonia is well known by true historians and academics who have not been paid off by dubious parties. You choose what you want to believe and the Macedonian people including those in Greek-occupied Macedonia can choose what they want. Let’s leave it at that. I am Macedonian and my land us Macedonia.
Macedonians we are Greek.You are just a jugo,a subproduct of communism.
…….And ancient Macedonia and Salonica (or Thessaloniki) were historically Greek. Of course, numerous Slav people settled during the middle ages as well as other populations……..Maybe this is a explanation from the Berlin-Vienna school that appointed you a german king (with the help of the English). But far from the truth.
Also when did the Greeks oust the Ottomans from Helm? In what battle? Why the Serbian army had to push it by it’s reserve army helping (next to Greeks), “capable” Bulgarians? As far as I know, the Turkish Pasha in Jedrane 1913 refused to hand over the military flag to anyone except the Serbian “vojvode”. Why, what do you think? Maybe from the same reason that Heteria needed serbian Vozd Karadjordje to start an greeks uprising in general in the 19th century. The Greeks were not “in the mood”.
Serbs die, Greeks from the English and Bulgarians from the Russians getting land, doing asimilation. Never again “brothers”.
The people of Nagorno Karabakh are a so called “scapegoat”, who the people of Krajina (Croatia) once were. And Armenians are in my opinion what is called a “useful id…..iot” in the politics of interest of great powers. Just like the Serbs in Serbia. Unlike the Jews, our sacrifices are obviously not important to the great powers because we do not have a lobby among globalists.
It remains to hope that VVP plays on more chessboards.
https://youtu.be/gPddzjHIfrA
He knows more than anyone of us commenting here.
Turkey will be destroyed in a grand finale game and the Bosporus straits will belong to Russia. Forget Armenia, think big!
And why not wait for Erdogan to build another canal north of Istanbul and set a border there. You will not go to war with the Turks, leave it to NATO and the Greek Phanariots. To go down over Dobrudja and over eastern Bulgaria where Russian Volgars live and than lean on the future red Serbia and white Moravia? Is it in general needed in a time without borders, without states, without nations, in a time of Marakesh internationalism and capital flow, what do you think?
I believe what Armenian people say more that your usual Putin bashing comments
Am I having a bad day…
or it is just my impression that the level of
troll commenting is growing high lately..?
OSCE has performed way under par re Donbass….failed to attend elections in Belarus…. failed to solve this situation……does anyone believe in this organisation any more…..it should be wound up? What else can it fail with?
And why is Turkey not expelled from this organisation instead of going renegade and deciding to be some kind of turc figurehead of justice? As Azer and Arm. issues were escalating surely these matters should have been referred to OSCE by members .
Wowser, quite a number of naysayers regarding Russia’s position viz-a-viz Nagorno-Kharbakh. Some have even mockingly given VV Putin styles. Those who support RF’s position are similarly given unwarranted monickers.
But never mind because these naysayers suffer from at least two maladies: one, an inability to outgrow childhood board games of strategy ( eg Risk, Stratego — the latter I used to play as a schoolboy) and hence their agitation for impetuous action on RF’s part. Two, a feeble-mindedness that makes them quick to assume that VVP and the entire Russian leadership are utterly incapable of reading the situation in the Transcaucasus — Russia’s “Near Abroad”. The idea of there ever being a Nato Armenia is rubbish.
MK Bhadrakumar has a different take, and being a sensible person, I agree with him. Writing on 3 Oct, he said “Three days into the renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Transcaucasian region — also known as South Caucasus — it is becoming clear that the binary narrative dished out by western commentators of this being a Turkish-Russian clash of wills and strategies is either simply naive or purposively deceptive. The point is, Russia and Turkey — and Iran in a somewhat supportive role — are already proactively talking of negotiations involving the warring sides.”
MKD also makes an interesting observation of a US-Israeli nexus [Israel supplied the suicide drones in Azerbaijani service, and other weapons to a tune of USD 800 million] in the Transcaucasus, developments seen with great suspicion by Iran, and also Turkey, which is getting more and more estranged from the Empire. Read Nato’s repeated call to Turkey to abandon S-400 in RT.
To my mind, several developments support MKD’s thesis. The Armenian foreign ministry has issued a statement calling for a ceasefire as did Messrs Putin and Macron. The US has made some noises but has done nothing substantial for Armenia. Of greater import is Iran which has called for restraint. Iran is an important player as far as Armenia is concerned, more so than loose-cannon Turkey. It is land-locked Armenia’s only friend apart from Russia which at first glance seems disinterested. Georgia supports Azerbaijan-Turkey to spite Russia.
But what the situation has boiled down to is that Armenia has now been forced into a position where it has to choose between RF (and Iran) and the Empire along with the regional bully Turkey. I’m willing to bet Armenia will turn to RF, tail between legs — and having learnt a good lesson.
MKB
https://orientalreview.org/2020/10/03/the-time-of-troubles-in-transcaucasia-i/
Iran
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/164303/Iran-s-positions-on-Nagorno-Karabakh-conflict
The situation has already changed drastically since then. Armenia is losing ground on the battlefield, and Erdogan (who’s actually calling the shots, let’s not pretend that Aliyev is anything but an Ottoman mouthpiece at this point) has absolutely nothing to gain by compromise.
“… Armenia is losing ground …”
Armenians are left in the lurch indeed. It was clearly a cordial assurance of non-support by Mr. Putin in their preceding telephone conversation that resulted in
Pashinyan says Yerevan is ready to make concessions in Karabakh
https://ria.ru/20201006/ustupki-1578518331.html
“…
MOSCOW, 6 October, RIA Novosti
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, mentioned the condition under which Yerevan is ready to compromise in the situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Armenia can make concessions in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, but only if Azerbaijan is ready to do the same,” the politician said.
Earlier it became known that the head of the Armenian Cabinet of Ministers visited Nagorno-Karabakh and held a meeting with the military there.
The day before Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation with Pashinyan stated the need to stop fighting.
…
…
…”
The penetration of radical Islamists in the Caucasus and beyond, to Central Asia, has long been a nightmare for Russia, as well as for China. Beijing already has to deal with the Xinjiang problem, and we saw how the Western MSM used it (predictably) as the means to discredit China internationally. It’s not unrealistic to assume that the potential defeat of Armenia could lead to the very outcome Russia has prevented by intervening in Syria – Jihadist penetration into the Caucasus and Central Asia, a long-term goal of the US for destabilizing Russia.
Erdogan’s warmongering and his overt backing of Azerbaijan in the Karabagh war, has, indicatively, been met with silence from the West. We have heard no condemnations, no call for Turkey to withdraw its military advisers, and stop fueling the conflict. Therefore it’s hardly far-fetch to assume Turkey’s destabilizing influence in the region enjoys the West’s implicit backing.
It leads me to a potentially interesting observation about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East since the Russian intervention in Syria: the equation has very much changed, the US influence in the ME has been greatly diminished, which is perhaps best demonstrated by the fact that Washington has lost its role as the sole and undisputed mediator in the ME. How does this change the bigger picture? We have the US influence in the region greatly weakened, Russia back to the scene, Iran successfully managing to resist US and Israeli pressure and defend and strengthen its position as a regional power. It does, at this point, look good for the Russia-Iran-Syria axis, however, Russia has since its intervention failed to capitalize on its advantage and become the new arbiter in the ME. This was due to many factors. I believe the role of Israel and Turkey is the key to understanding the present situation.
By this point, the US strategists must have realized that Turkey would be a convenient and effective tool of keeping staving off rising Russian influence in the ME during Washington’s ongoing (but probably by no means indefinite) retreat from the region. Washington could already rely on Israel, of course, but Israel’s primary role was the weakening of the Arab world and prevention it from achieving political cohesion, while Turkey’s role, through the tacit backing of Washington of Erdogan’s neo-Osmanist ambitions, would be to create damage for Russia wherever it can, and Turkey has had success doing this.
Moscow cooperating with Ankara in Syria was a matter of geopolitical expediency for Russia, as it undoubtedly brings short-term tactical benefits for Russian interests in Syria. It’s the long-term consequences that are a cause of concern. Propping up Erdogan and cooperating with him has more advantages for Turkey than for Russia in the long run. It does not deter Erdogan from pursuing his aggressive foreign policy and I’m afraid Russia might pay dearly for her cooperation with Turkey in Syria.
The growth of Turkish power in ME ensures the preservation of US influence in the region, weakens Iran, and closes the door for Russia, which makes it doubly dangerous from the Russian perspective.
They have to get rid of the Ildib head choppers somehow, can’t just disband and send where? Home? There’d be a few Karl Gustafs here and there, and the optics………..much better to coordinate their distruction, so send some to Lybia send some to NK grind them where they want to die because I’d imagine the most radical are incapble of re education……….so did the Armemis kill 3000 Azeri troops or were a few thousand head choppers taken off the table? Well 3000+/- thats a lot of funeral processions, lets see how many Azeri troops get a normal burrial.
Cheers, M
Both Armenian and Azeri claims in this war are straight out of the Modi regime’s propaganda handbook, that is, you should divide by ten before even considering the possibility of any veracity of their figures.
Army SOP everywhere, lie, lie, then lie some more……..and yes, multiply or divide all frontline propaganda by ten.
Just seems moving the jihadi pawns around the chess board may be at play here, because the question still stands: where do the Ildib jihadis go (post war)? Are they re-educationable, reformable, repatriatible? Would you welcome them back to your country……..they being programed (via dogma) mercenaries fighting more for ideology than money, although money is always a great motivator.
I think, regardless of what we little peeps see, there is much going on in back ‘zoom’ rooms atm, where the closed door diplomacy happens. Now if Murphy shows up, I hope I live to take that back.
Cheers, M
Agree with most of what you say. I believe that Turkey is aiming to become a regional hegemon and is looking for an alliance in which it is numero uno, or at least play a leading role. Russia has CIS, and after being repeatedly cold-shouldered by Europe, Turkey now wants to start a “Turkic Brotherhood” organisation of (mainly ex-Soviet) states in its immediate neighbourhood. Turkey also wants to play the leading role in the Muslim (read Sunni) world, competing with wahhabist Saudi Arabia. Call it a neo-Ottoman policy if you will.
The trouble is, Turkey and Russia are near neighbours and historically recent adversaries until the 1990’s; Russia has its own conception of its ‘near abroad’ and ‘Eurasianism’ and the policy overlap is bound to cause clashes between them. Thus Turkish behaviour appears erratic — cooperation here, opposition there.
There are steps at an entente however. Turkey has joined SCO as an observer, the only Nato state to even come close to the Eurasian organisation. That sends shivers down the spine of the likes of Stoltenberg and his ilk not least because SCO has a defence component. Full Turkish accession, plus Russia and China, would result in a formidable military grouping stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. A nightmare.
Israel wants to establish a bridgehead north of Iran. It doesn’t really matter if it’s Armenia or Azerbaijan. It just so happens Azerbaijan is more conducive to the Jewish state, having being friends with it ever since the USSR broke up and the country’s geography being more favourable.
Turkey isn’t in a powerful position as you claim. They’re picking fights everywhere at once. No allies except the ones they use from time to time. Their economy is nearing collapse.
Countries that tried to expand with nationalistic racist agendas in the past didn’t end up well.
No they are not. They’re picking their figures with extreme care, only choosing to fight wars that enhance the chances of economic returns. Supporting the slave trading so called GNA of Libya in return for oil rights. Creating the Azeri-Ottoman-headchopper alliance in return for a share of Azeri oil revenues. Supporting the jihadi headchopper invasion of Syria to loot the infrastructure (and oil from ISIS as long as it controlled the oil fields).
Picking fights everywhere at once would be the pastime of bin Salman al Bonesawi of Saudi Barbaria.
I wonder how “Ganja city” got it’s name. It’s a shame to shell those highly peaceful inhabitants and valuable agricultural products.
It’s the Azeri version of the original Armenian name of “Gandzak”. It used to be Armenian populated, then got renamed Kirovabad during the Soviet times. In the late 80-s it was ethnically cleansed of Armenians and renamed Gyanja.
I would use TOS1 to target ganja fields, but only in october :)
As i know word ganja comes from rastas, so correlation with Azeri is not very likely..+ i have never heard about growing cannabis on Kavkaz region, but hey at least they have goats!
This report is misleading
On the map the Azeris have taken the buffer zone which is not Nagorno – Karabkh proper
30 years ago Armenia took land outside of Nargorno – Karabkh as a buffer zone these were villages that have been empty.
Put up a map to show this reality
These villages are overlooked by high points which will be hard to attack.
Modern Azerbaijan is a genocidal regime, they killed or ethnically cleansed about 700,000 Armenians in the late 80-s, early 90-s so a buffer zone to stay safe is a necessity.
All the shiny buildings you see in Baku are built on property taken from ethnically cleansed Armenians.
Assuming that this is true, ie that Pashinyan has chosen to deliberately sacrifice Nagorno Karabakh in order to get to enter NATO (I believe that it is possible, but my beliefs aren’t evidence), then Putin was even more criminally negligent by not preventing an Armenian military defeat by scotching the attack before it ever started by a few phone calls and a public statement that Russia will not orbit a change of the facts on the ground by use of military force. Not only this, the fall of Nagorno Karabakh immediately poses a great danger to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and the two Donbass republics. If Putin isn’t going to lift a finger in a matter of Russian national interest – and a NATO Armenia is very much not in Russia’s national interest any more than an Ottoman protected jihadi headchopper ministate in Nagorno Karabakh is – then how can they depend on Russia protecting them from Georgia, Moldavia, and the Ukranazi coup regime of course?
https://southfront.org/there-is-conspiracy-against-armenia/
True, if Russia will not act like an ally should then who needs an ally like that?
https://www.putin-today.ru/archives/109651
Gleb Prostakov
(Глеб Простаков)
https://vz.ru/opinions/2020/10/6/1063963.html
Russia – A Ring Of Fire Is Set Around Her Perimeter…
Russia is set on fire around the perimeter. First Belarus, then Nagorno-Karabakh, now Kyrgyzstan. In all three conflict points – partners in the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO. It is easy to guess who is the arsonist, although the situation in Kyrgyzstan in this sense is, perhaps, completely non-trivial.
The parliamentary elections held there the day before did not bode well. The favorite parties were known in advance, and both these parties – Birimdik (Unity) and Menekim Kyrgyzstan (My homeland – Kyrgyzstan) – were parties in power, even if they came from different clans. The elections were run by candidates representing two-thirds of the current composition of parliament. That is, there was no talk of a radical renewal of the elites.
The elections were recognized by observers from the CIS and SCO, and the meticulous OSCE did not find violations in the work of the republic’s CEC, read – in the counting of votes. Yes, the elections were accompanied by a war of compromising evidence and massive bribery of voters, but for the Central Asian countries this is almost the norm. This is also a kind of democracy, when people themselves decide whether to sell their vote or not.
And then, unexpectedly even for the participants in the process, the peaceful demonstration of the supporters of the parties that lost the elections turned into a riot. Within one day, the mayor’s office of Bishkek, the parliament building are captured, and ex-president Almazbek Atambayev is released from the torture chambers of the State Security Committee.
The CEC recognizes the elections as invalid even in the absence of criticism from any significant international organization. This decision, apparently, became the only one possible in a situation where the authorities were unable to take control of the situation. For President Sooronbai Jeenembekov, the re-election is a ghostly hope of avoiding the fate of the first president of the republic, Askar Akayev, who was forced to flee to Russia, and Almazbek Atambayev, who was sentenced to 11 years in prison in 2019.
Within one day, not only are key administrative buildings seized, but a coordination council of the opposition is created, which is already ready to take power into its own hands by appointing a “government of popular confidence.” The swiftness of the development of events, which barely met in 24 hours, would envy the “revolutionaries” of Ukraine and Belarus with black envy.
But how did the blitzkrieg of the Kyrgyz opposition become possible? Who are these people and what do they really want? It is absolutely impossible to understand anything by reading the programs of the parties. These are discordant documents containing general messages without any specifics. Unless the Birimdik party, associated with President Jeenembekov, had a pronounced position on the continuation of Eurasian integration. The rest have nothing but clan interests, which are the alpha and omega of Kyrgyz domestic politics.
But let’s remember what distinguishes Kyrgyzstan from other states in the region. Until now, in this country, located literally at the intersection of everything and everyone in Eurasia, there has been a balance of interests of several major players at once: Russia, China, the United States and Turkey.
Turkey’s influence sank after the 2016 coup d’etat attempt and a campaign of persecutions against the followers of the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan is the only Turkic-speaking country that has rejected Ankara’s call to pin down the Gulenists. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and even Russia have sharply cooled down towards educational and cultural projects associated with the name of Gulen, who has been living with the United States for many years.
But Bishkek flatly refused to infringe on the rights of the supporters of the preacher, who is considered the main opponent of Turkish President Erdogan. It was Kyrgyzstan, along withthe United States, that remained the most loyal to the global movement created with the name of Gulen on its lips.
The Gülenist community grew out of education. Elite lyceums “Sebat” in Kyrgyzstan are directly or indirectly connected with the organization “Hizmet”, the leader of which is Gulen. These are the only schools that practice singing the Kyrgyz anthem before classes begin and have introduced the basics of patriotic education. A significant part of Sebat graduates go to the popular American University of Central Asia (AUTCA), funded by the structures of George Soros. Graduates from these schools and universities form a kind of closely knit network of classmates and classmates – successful, in positions and extremely influential.
Back in 2016, I was told that the majority of opinion leaders in Kyrgyzstan are graduates of Sebat and AUTCA. People who sympathize with Gülen hold high positions not only in government agencies, but also in the country’s largest company, the gold mining company Kumtor. It is the “Gulen factor” that can explain the paralysis of the Kyrgyz security forces, who allowed the rapid spread of the riot in Bishkek and the regions.
This network of “classmates” was supposed to take power into their own hands in 2016 in Turkey, but then the military coup, directed by the Gulenists, failed. It took several more years for a similar network to finally get stronger already in Kyrgyzstan. By 2020, their influence upset the balance of power in the region formed by Russia, China and the United States in favor of the latter.
“The USA is the captain on the ship of the world. None of the organizations that come into conflict with them can succeed, ”Fethullah Gülen once said. Today, the preacher factor seems to have played a decisive role in the state translation in Kyrgyzstan. What failed in Istanbul, succeeded in Bishkek And Russia will have to deal with this new Kyrgyz reality.
ALSO
Russia: Economic & Technology Achievements
https://www.putin-today.ru/archives/category/russias_achievements
News from Russian press, Wednesday, 7 October 2020:
Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan: Battles are ongoing along the entire front line
https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/10/07/minoborony-azerbaydzhana-boi-idut-po-vsey-linii-fronta
Ministry of Defence of Armenia: Three brigades of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces put to flight
https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/10/07/minoborony-armenii-tri-brigady-vs-azerbaydzhana-obrashcheny-v-begstvo
Pashinyan: Russia guaranteed support for Armenia in case of attack
https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/10/07/pashinyan-rossiya-garantirovala-podderzhku-armenii-v-sluchae-napadeniya
Nagorno-Karabakh opposes Turkey’s mediation in negotiations
https://iz.ru/1070414/2020-10-07/v-nagornom-karabakhe-vystupili-protiv-posrednichestva-turtcii-v-peregovorakh
The OSCE Minsk representatives of France USA Russia and 1 other going to meet in Paris tomorrow then Moscow later.
“… France USA Russia …”
!
Means, Nagorno-Kharabakh about to be traded between the capitalist “partners”. The “Minsk” style.
Another move (after Ukraine, Belarus) to provoke Putin to intervene. Erdogan is a major piece of OTAN´s chess & will remain so for seeable future. President Putin´s efforts to make him change ends is futile & harmful to Russia´s strategic stand in the region. Pachinian got his lesson & from now on, has to stop begging for cramps from Armenian Evangelicos imported from the USA & mind gaming Russia & Putin. Like Lukashenko.