The preleminary results/projections from France and Lebanon show that the pro-Israeli parties have cleary won the elections. In France the big winners are Danny Cohen-Bendit and Sarkozy while in Lebanon the Three Stooges (Hariri, Jumblatt, Siniora) appear to have defeated the Resistance parties.
It is too early to comment much about these results, but they are clearly a victory for the USraelian Empire.
May be not as bad as you think.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4976
This may be more or less the result Hizb wanted. Assuming it will keep enough ministers for a veto, nothing will really change. It can maintain the pretense that it is separate from the government in the event of another war with Israel. Also, it will not be responsible for the Lebanese economy. Angry Arab was sure that Nasrallah was trying to throw the election with a May 7 speech.
There will be some gloating from Israel and the U.S., along with Saudi and Egyptian stooges, but otherwise, it will not be so bad.
@Lysander: yes, I have heard that argument. Angry Arab makes the same point here:
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/so-was-it-right.html
Maybe. I honestly don’t know. I guess I am simply baffled that *anyone* could vote for the Three Stooges (or for Sarkozy for that matter).
This is all too “hot off the press” for me to comment yet. I can already say that the abstention rate in France has been huge and that since it takes a long while to sign up to vote in that country, and since Dieudo’s list is, what, one month old or so, there might be a good explanation for what happened there too.
It’s just that seeing Siniora, Hariri, Jumblatt, Cohn-Bendit and Sarkozy win – for whatever reason – all in one day is hard for me to take :-(
Latest estimates for Dieudo and his Party:
seine saint denis: 6 541 – 2,83% des 231 454 Exprimés (+67% abstention)
paris : 6 078 — 1,02% des 594 608 exprimés (abstention +50%)
hauts de seine : 5 665 — 1,37% des 412 460 Exprimés (+55% abstention)
val de marne : 4 475 — 1,47% des 304 505 exprimés (abstention +59%)
val d’oise : ???
Yvelines : 3 476 — 0,88% des 394 556 exprimés (abstention +56%)
ESSONE : 3 225 — 1,03% des 312 020 Exprimés (+59% abstention)
seine et marne : 2 855 — 0,97% des 293 873 exprimés (+62% abstention)
I’m not at all familiar with French politics.
I do think that the balance of power in the Mideast is changing and that the U.S. will not be able to ensure Israeli dominance forever. In the Next 10-20 years Iran will likely be perceived as the region’s greatest power and Israel will be second. The implications are huge for that.
The risk, as always, is that Iran can be co-opted. But I doubt it. The U.S. is not likely to make an offer that even the moderates would accept. I don’t believe the next Iranian government, even if Mousavi wins, will concede on enrichment. Indeed, a moderate appearance while pursuing the same policies is Iran’s best bet.
It seems to be working for Obama, so maybe Iran and Hizbullah should play that game too?
@Lysander: as always, you are a very astute observer of politics. Appearing to be “moderate” is a trick which the Iranians have already played in the past, and very effectively, with Rafsanjani and, even more so, with Khatami, and I would not be surprized at all if they played that trick again.
I also agree when you write “The risk, as always, is that Iran can be co-opted. But I doubt it”. I agree that the risk of that happening is small, but that should that happen it would be nothing short of an absolute disaster in the Middle-East. Iran is *the* vital actor which prevents both the USraelian Empire AND the Salafis from controlling the entire region.
And then there is South America which is, so far, resisting the Empire successfullly. We should not, however, underestimate the power of corruption, the Empire’s favorite weapon.
So all in all, the Empire is definitely loosing, sometimes to good elements (Latin America), sometimes to bad ones (Afghanistan). Still, the Empire has a lot of residual power left, military, of course, but also financial and political.
Although I know many Lebanese Shia who had high hopes in this election, I personally didn’t hold my hopes up high that the opposition in Lebanon was going to be able to win the elections. First of all, it is not an easy task to change the status quo in little ole confessional Lebanon considering that the state of affairs in the Middle East region, amongst the so-called moderate Arab leaders, continues to be the same…
It also could very well be possible that Hezbollah’s leadership did not want the opposition which they were a part of to win, especially if they felt winning would somehow undermine the resistance which for them is the most vital part of their movement in the present status quo of the region where U.S./Israel continues to dominate…