A new round of intense fighting has broken out between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Turkish-backed forces near Tripoli.
During the past few days, fighters from the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Syrian militants supported by the Turkish military carried out several attacks on Tripoli’s Airport attempting to capture it from the LNA. At one point, Turkish-led forces even entered the territory of the airport but failed to secure their gains and were forced to retreat. The key facility south of Tripoli remained in the hands of LNA troops. As a result of the clashes, the GNA captured a T-72 battle tank, destroyed at least 2 LNA vehicles and lost about a dozen fighters.
Seeking to compensate this military setback, pro-Turkish sources published photos of what they described as a list of Russian mercenaries written in Russian captured south of Tripoli. However, the list appeared to be only Arab names roughly translated into Russian.
Pro-LNA sources say that the GNA and its backers are pushing the propaganda about the supposedly major involvement of Russian military contractors in the conflict to draw the audience’s attention from the fact that Turkey deployed about 10,000 Syrian militants to support the GNA. Recently, Turkey even started supplying its Syrian proxies and GNA fighters with M60 battle tanks.
In response to these attacks, the LNA Air Force intensified airstrikes on positions of Turkish-backed forces near Gharyan, Al-Aziziyah, Ayn Zarah and Misrata. Pro-LNA sources also claimed that at least 3 Turkish-supplied unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down over Bani Waled and another near Tripoli Airport.
At the same time, LNA units captured from Turkish-backed forces the village of Al-Asaba south of Gharyan. According to reports, the LNA is planning to develop the advance in the direction of Kikla in order to secure a link with its forces deployed southwest of Tripoli. Another priority target is Gharyan itself. If the LNA is able to retake it from the GNA, it will be able to stabilize the frontline after the recent setbacks in the battle against Turkish-backed forces and relaunch the advance on Tripoli. On the other hand, if the GNA keeps Gharyan in its hands, it will be able to continue pressuring LNA units at the Tripoli Airport and expand a buffer zone around the city of Tripoli.
Haftar vs Erdogan, two egos out of control.
SouthFront for some reason writes up the Libyan conflict without naming either, as if the war is between armies, GNA vs LNA.
This war is for ego. Haftar defies Putin and wastes 1600 Wagner PMCs in careless tactics and fruitless strategy.
Erdogan needs a victory somewhere. Syria, he can’t beat the Russians, nor the Kurds.
So, he has gotten lucky because Haftar is an old fool and wasted two years of winning in a disastrous attempt to come from the West and try to take Tripoli.
Now, Russia will have to try to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.
Arguably, Haftar is the legitimate one – being Libyan – whilst Erdogan is the Intruder ?
“Now, Russia will have to try to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.”
I believe Russia will get involved just enough to keep Erdogan busy in Libya and use that scenario to finalise rats in Idlib, with not much Turkish resistance.
If the GNA and Turkish forces overcome the LNA and drive East, Egypt will most probably be forced to intervene militarily with the material and financial support of the UAE and possibly Moscow.
Having enough problems with terrorist elements in their western Sinai region, i doubt the Egyptians will allow Turkish backed ISIS to swarm their western border and be surrounded on both sides by hostile forces.
The Algerian army will also, for historical reasons, not look kindly on a Turkish dominion on their eastern border.
This could unfortunately be the beginnings of a much larger conflict in North Africa. However if it comes to this, i can’t possibly see how (in the long term) the Turks can take on this kind of costly prolonged war, 2,000 miles away from home. They have no aircraft carriers, very few important allies and a troubled economy made worse by the pandemic. The pseudo-sultan is driving Turkey and that region towards a disaster.
Notice the US buildup next door to Libya, Tunisia. Africom and Centcom are built for perpetual conflicts. They will make sure North Africa and the Med are stirred into chaos.
You hope the Trump administration’s desperate attempt to drive a wedge between China and Russia** will prevent them from doing anything foolish in North Africa and upset the Russians.
I’m more concerned about the democrats and their legions of neocons gaining ground in the US (winning points with riot chaos + poor pandemic management) and coming back to power next year. This would be a catastrophe for North Africa and the world in general.
**
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-03/Trump-is-trying-to-stir-trouble-by-proposing-expanded-G7-meeting-R0WESE5C0g/index.html