By Pepe Escobar – posted with permission
Coming decade could see the US take on Russia, China and Iran over the New Silk Road connection
Iranian seamen salute the Russian Navy frigate Yaroslav Mudry while moored at Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman during Iran-Russia-China joint naval drills. The photo was provided by the Iranian Army office on December 27, 2019. Photo: AFP / HO / Iranian Army office
The Raging Twenties started with a bang with the targeted assassination of Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani.
Yet a bigger bang awaits us throughout the decade: the myriad declinations of the New Great Game in Eurasia, which pits the US against Russia, China and Iran, the three major nodes of Eurasia integration.
Every game-changing act in geopolitics and geoeconomics in the coming decade will have to be analyzed in connection to this epic clash.
The Deep State and crucial sectors of the US ruling class are absolutely terrified that China is already outpacing the “indispensable nation” economically and that Russia has outpaced it militarily. The Pentagon officially designates the three Eurasian nodes as “threats.”
Hybrid War techniques – carrying inbuilt 24/7 demonization – will proliferate with the aim of containing China’s “threat,” Russian “aggression” and Iran’s “sponsorship of terrorism.” The myth of the “free market” will continue to drown under the imposition of a barrage of illegal sanctions, euphemistically defined as new trade “rules.”
Yet that will be hardly enough to derail the Russia-China strategic partnership. To unlock the deeper meaning of this partnership, we need to understand that Beijing defines it as rolling towards a “new era.” That implies strategic long-term planning – with the key date being 2049, the centennial of New China.
The horizon for the multiple projects of the Belt and Road Initiative – as in the China-driven New Silk Roads – is indeed the 2040s, when Beijing expects to have fully woven a new, multipolar paradigm of sovereign nations/partners across Eurasia and beyond, all connected by an interlocking maze of belts and roads.
The Russian project – Greater Eurasia – somewhat mirrors Belt & Road and will be integrated with it. Belt & Road, the Eurasia Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank are all converging towards the same vision.
Realpolitik
So this “new era”, as defined by the Chinese, relies heavily on close Russia-China coordination, in every sector. Made in China 2025 is encompassing a series of techno/scientific breakthroughs. At the same time, Russia has established itself as an unparalleled technological resource for weapons and systems that the Chinese still cannot match.
At the latest BRICS summit in Brasilia, President Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin that “the current international situation with rising instability and uncertainty urge China and Russia to establish closer strategic coordination.” Putin’s response: “Under the current situation, the two sides should continue to maintain close strategic communication.”
Russia is showing China how the West respects realpolitik power in any form, and Beijing is finally starting to use theirs. The result is that after five centuries of Western domination – which, incidentally, led to the decline of the Ancient Silk Roads – the Heartland is back, with a bang, asserting its preeminence.
On a personal note, my travels these past two years, from West Asia to Central Asia, and my conversations these past two months with analysts in Nur-Sultan, Moscow and Italy, have allowed me to get deeper into the intricacies of what sharp minds define as the Double Helix. We are all aware of the immense challenges ahead – while barely managing to track the stunning re-emergence of the Heartland in real-time.
In soft power terms, the sterling role of Russian diplomacy will become even more paramount – backed up by a Ministry of Defense led by Sergei Shoigu, a Tuvan from Siberia, and an intel arm that is capable of constructive dialogue with everybody: India/Pakistan, North/South Korea, Iran/Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan.
This apparatus does smooth (complex) geopolitical issues over in a manner that still eludes Beijing.
In parallel, virtually the whole Asia-Pacific – from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean – now takes into full consideration Russia-China as a counter-force to US naval and financial overreach.
Stakes in Southwest Asia
The targeted assassination of Soleimani, for all its long-term fallout, is just one move in the Southwest Asia chessboard. What’s ultimately at stake is a macro geoeconomic prize: a land bridge from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Last summer, an Iran-Iraq-Syria trilateral established that “the goal of negotiations is to activate the Iranian-Iraqi-Syria load and transport corridor as part of a wider plan for reviving the Silk Road.”
There could not be a more strategic connectivity corridor, capable of simultaneously interlinking with the International North-South Transportation Corridor; the Iran-Central Asia-China connection all the way to the Pacific; and projecting Latakia towards the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.
What’s on the horizon is, in fact, a sub-sect of Belt & Road in Southwest Asia. Iran is a key node of Belt & Road; China will be heavily involved in the rebuilding of Syria; and Beijing-Baghdad signed multiple deals and set up an Iraqi-Chinese Reconstruction Fund (income from 300,000 barrels of oil a day in exchange for Chinese credit for Chinese companies rebuilding Iraqi infrastructure).
A quick look at the map reveals the “secret” of the US refusing to pack up and leave Iraq, as demanded by the Iraqi Parliament and Prime Minister: to prevent the emergence of this corridor by any means necessary. Especially when we see that all the roads that China is building across Central Asia – I navigated many of them in November and December – ultimately link China with Iran.
The final objective: to unite Shanghai to the Eastern Mediterranean – overland, across the Heartland.
As much as Gwadar port in the Arabian Sea is an essential node of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and part of China’s multi-pronged “escape from Malacca” strategy, India also courted Iran to match Gwadar via the port of Chabahar in the Gulf of Oman.
So as much as Beijing wants to connect the Arabian Sea with Xinjiang, via the economic corridor, India wants to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asia via Iran.
Yet India’s investments in Chabahar may come to nothing, with New Delhi still mulling whether to become an active part of the US “Indo-Pacific” strategy, which would imply dropping Tehran.
The Russia-China-Iran joint naval exercise in late December, starting exactly from Chabahar, was a timely wake-up for New Delhi. India simply cannot afford to ignore Iran and end up losing its key connectivity node, Chabahar.
The immutable fact: everyone needs and wants Iran connectivity. For obvious reasons, since the Persian empire, this is the privileged hub for all Central Asian trade routes.
On top of it, Iran for China is a matter of national security. China is heavily invested in Iran’s energy industry. All bilateral trade will be settled in yuan or in a basket of currencies bypassing the US dollar.
US neocons, meanwhile, still dream of what the Cheney regime was aiming at in the past decade: regime change in Iran leading to the US dominating the Caspian Sea as a springboard to Central Asia, only one step away from Xinjiang and weaponization of anti-China sentiment. It could be seen as a New Silk Road in reverse to disrupt the Chinese vision.
Battle of the Ages
A new book, The Impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, by Jeremy Garlick of the University of Economics in Prague, carries the merit of admitting that, “making sense” of Belt & Road “is extremely difficult.”
This is an extremely serious attempt to theorize Belt & Road’s immense complexity – especially considering China’s flexible, syncretic approach to policymaking, quite bewildering for Westerners. To reach his goal, Garlick gets into Tang Shiping’s social evolution paradigm, delves into neo-Gramscian hegemony, and dissects the concept of “offensive mercantilism” – all that as part of an effort in “complex eclecticism.”
The contrast with the pedestrian Belt & Road demonization narrative emanating from US “analysts” is glaring. The book tackles in detail the multifaceted nature of Belt & Road’s trans-regionalism as an evolving, organic process.
Imperial policymakers won’t bother to understand how and why Belt & Road is setting a new global paradigm. The NATO summit in London last month offered a few pointers. NATO uncritically adopted three US priorities: even more aggressive policy towards Russia; containment of China (including military surveillance); and militarization of space – a spin-off from the 2002 Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine.
So NATO will be drawn into the “Indo-Pacific” strategy – which means containment of China. And as NATO is the EU’s weaponized arm, that implies the US interfering on how Europe does business with China – at every level.
Retired US Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell’s chief of staff from 2001 to 2005, cuts to the chase: “America exists today to make war. How else do we interpret 19 straight years of war and no end in sight? It’s part of who we are. It’s part of what the American Empire is. We are going to lie, cheat and steal, as Pompeo is doing right now, as Trump is doing right now, as Esper is doing right now … and a host of other members of my political party, the Republicans, are doing right now. We are going to lie, cheat and steal to do whatever it is we have to do to continue this war complex. That’s the truth of it. And that’s the agony of it.”
Moscow, Beijing and Tehran are fully aware of the stakes. Diplomats and analysts are working on the trend, for the trio, to evolve a concerted effort to protect one another from all forms of hybrid war – sanctions included – launched against each of them.
For the US, this is indeed an existential battle – against the whole Eurasia integration process, the New Silk Roads, the Russia-China strategic partnership, those Russian hypersonic weapons mixed with supple diplomacy, the profound disgust and revolt against US policies all across the Global South, the nearly inevitable collapse of the US dollar. What’s certain is that the Empire won’t go quietly into the night. We should all be ready for the battle of the ages.
Every single rational human being on our planet needs to inform the pentagon that its services are no longer needed. I hereby do so now.
I am on board as well..never was any need for the USA as anything but a regular country..and for Israhell as no country at all
the ‘Jews’ must give the Palestinians back their land..see if a compromise can be made to remain there or get out..go back to the Ukraine.
and for these same ‘Jews’..rather Khazarians: Please drop the fake Judiasm. you are not Jews! give it up!
I second the motion!
Yes, Joshua, and while they are heading towards the exits they can refund that 21 trillion dollars they stole from the people.. Ha ha, very funny, I know! Fat chance of that happening.
Paradise Stolen (awesome piece on YouTube) — hope you watch it.
*Cough*Cough*…*Hint*Hint*
By which I mean, it’s not such a bad idea…
For all of the powers…
To include the United States…
To do exactly that as well…
Just sayin’.
Yes, indeed, Pepe. The War is on, not just a battle. The US has declared wars against China, Russia and Iran. The missile strike assassination of General Soleimani highlights the criminality of these hybrid wars.
Sanctions, the economic missile strikes, are the key to the Hegemon’s arsenal. They hit the three main targets and any secondary nation, person or entity that violates the major sanctions. ‘Missiles strikes’ everywhere!
But now, Pompeo declared that not only will the Hegemon sanction people economically, there is open season on killing any official or individual anywhere for whatever reason the US concocts.
Note the military display in the Black Sea Putin personally observed last week. Hypersonic missile practice to send a clear message to the US/NATO and the Russophobes in the neighborhood that Russia will not just decapitate in return the US military if they strike any Russians. The consequences will be orders of magnitude enormously larger than 1:1.
We are watching WWIII the only way it can be fought: economically (sanctions versus infrastructure development) and militarily (missiles versus missiles).
(That ‘Double Helix’ is a keeper description. Went around the world, didn’t it? Ha!)
what would happen if in turn US leaders were targeted and assassinated around the world..all by deniable action..that is no proof of blame could be attached to such as Iran/Russia/China?
why should the US be free to assassinate and be free from assassination?
because…
Whoever fights monsters should see… that in the process he does not become a monster. If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.
– Friedrich Nietzsche
“You cannot solve a problem by using the same thinking that caused the problem in the first place”. Albert Einstein.
You cannot change a system and philosophy of murder and mayhem by you yourself instigating mass murder and mayhem.
What is increasingly attracting more and more of the world to Russia, is that they are seeing that Russia is NOT America, that she doesn’t get into trade just to take over running your country, and she doesn’t wreck havoc on those that she find unamenable to trade and cultural exchange.
Good observation. The two country’s activities on the world stage are quite the opposite. Yet, I see Pentagon propaganda often enough in so-called alt-media about evil Russia, dictator Putin, that they are trying to recreate the Soviet Union, etc. It is all such a pathetic lie to create fear and support for the aggression their leadership is pursuing because we all must know that America is a force for good in the world, and if anyone does not agree then they may just come and beat the crap out of you to prove it.
Ben,
I have thought the same thing. The very thought you mention arises in me every time I see another act of vile lawlessness by Washington.The anger just boils up in me. That would happen with any caring person. And that really troubles me since I consider myself both a pacifist and a humanist.
In the end, however (and like the others on this thread), I don’t think we can defeat monsters by becoming monsters. Nor do I think we need to.
The United States in on the verge of economic collapse. It will happen sooner rather than later. Consider this article from a leading economic commentator:
https://dailyreckoning.com/a-world-gone-mad/
The economic system in the United States and much of Europe no longer functions rationally. Its main products are engaging in war and further enriching the obscenely rich. Such a system can’t go on forever. And in fact, the ongoing problems in the overnight lending market seem to indicate that the system is beginning to fail right down to its very core. Monies being pumped into the overnight banking system are now being used for speculative investing by hedge funds, rather than for re-balancing banking reserves in order to assure the continued functionality of the banking system.
This is simply pure-greed-driven madness. It cannot go on much longer and it won’t. And once it falls, dreams of empire will fall with it.
Mike, since there is really no check on printing money anymore, what is to stop the Fed from bolstering the banking system if that day were to arrive. The big banks are capitalized and their stock is at all time highs, there is plenty of money to draw from if the citizens rush to the exits say in a nuclear exchange environment.
What I see is the political system not acting in a rational manner, fighting themselves at the hint of political reform from within. Putting into place elementary solutions to the disaster they themselves have created, this can only stress the system further but it takes a physical toll rather than an economic one.
There are many questionable professions but until forced to see that they are the problem rather than the solution, I see things staying the same.
Alabama,
You wrote:
That “day” has arrived. Since last September the Federal Reserve has added $60 billion per month to the short term lending markets just to keep the banking system functioning. But the overnight lending situation has still not stabilized. The funds are being drained off in stock market speculation causing the current massive stock market rally. The federal reserve, in turn, has responded by pumping even more money into the overnight lending system just to keep it functioning. But most of that money is being further drained off into the stock market bubble. At this point, the fed can’t stop at this point since the overnight lending system would completely freeze up if they stopped.
But it can’t continue.
The world’s biggest hedge fund CEO recently stated that he is concerned that the market is getting way too overvalued and it might very well be time to sell.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-extremely-long-frothy-stocks-worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-warns-expects-gold-soar
That selling is going to happen eventually. It has to happen. The more money that is pumped into the system, the more the market will climb. Eventually the hedge fund CEO’s will say “this is way to overvalued and way too dangerous” and start to liquidate. Once that happens, with just one big fund exiting, there will be a panic running to the exits.
Jim Rickards is an economist who advises the federal government on these things. He recently said:
The hedge funds won’t be the ones to be “eaten alive.” Some large fund will soon start exiting the market. When they do all hell will break loose. People will run for the exits.
It is not far off.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see about that. I don’t rule it out, but I’m sure there are different options and should these options become available to use, the hedge funds will keep juggling their stock and skimming the profits in the name of making people money.
@Alabama,
But that still doesn’t solve the basic problem with overnight funding in the banking system. It was the freeze up in the overnight backing system which scared bankers the most in in the 2007-2008 global crisis.
And there are other problems as well. In post the 2007-2008 global crisis, central banks all over the world reduced interest rates in order to spur investment. It did not work to spur investment. What happened was that a great deal of that money borrowed was mis-invested creating asset bubbles and other problems. For instance, corporations throughout the world borrowed huge amounts money at low rates. If that borrowed money had been put to good productive use, it would’ve been one thing. However, a large amount of this money was not used for any good purpose at all. A large amount of the money was used strictly for corporate buybacks. Rather than investing in capital equipment or the like, companies simply brought back their own stock. Even worse, a lot of the bought back stock was eventually transferred to company executives via stock options. The end result, companies took on more debt and, in effect, gave the money to insiders.
Here’s an article from Harvard Law on these issues.
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/10/22/examining-corporate-priorities-the-impact-of-stock-buybacks-on-workers-communities-and-investors/
Many companies are burdened with crushing debt, that they can barely pay with low interest rates. What makes it worse is that if interest rates rise, the companies will face huge debt repayment problems when they refinance. And interest rates are bound to rise once other countries start to de-dollarize, which is already happening.
Western economy has so many problems, I don’t see the Western World getting through this year without a significant financial blowout.
I can see the paranoia resulting from stock buybacks and lost leverage of revenue that can not now be used as pleased. These people were forewarned about this and either didn’t get the memo or didn’t believe the messenger.
And if these same people took on too much debt in the hopes they could use other peoples money to pay off these debts, did they not learn in economics class about the risk vs reward in taking on this debt. I guess we all knew that the derivatives mkt was unsustainable and if the banks and or traders were to confident with their lending and buying standards, they should share the blame.
But I still don’t see the price of oil dropping b/c no one has enough money to buy the final product, there is simply too much liquidity sloshing around even if stocks do drop. And the sub prime real estate mkt bubble has been tamed so all those jobs wont go away.
It looks like a derivatives problem to me which does involve a lot of money, but very few people. No one on the street seems to worried even though they’ve been told the 08 crisis problem was never fully resolved. We can only wait and see.
Here’s today article saying the Fed will continue buying securities until they are basically blue in the face.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-stuck-in-quantitative-easing-hell-2020-01-16?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
I think you’re correct Mike.
If there is no economic crash in JSA b4 the election this year, I’m voting for whatever corrupt dipshit the Democrats throw up. Both parties are total trash. But there’s no way the zombie states of America can stumble their way through another 4 years without some economic calamity, and I want the leftists in power so that the general public blames them when it all goes down. Conservatism is the new counter culture.
Not that it matters anyway. When all else fails, the merchants will take us to war. It’s all so tiresome.
I see your point Mike from New Jersey..if the Axis leaders allow their policies to degenerate into the monstrous behavior of the west, the west wins actually..their opposition becomes like them, there is no real positive alternative for the world…a horrific development that would be
yet the leaders of the progressive nations must be protected: They must be able to travel the world carrying out their responsibilties free of threat of assassination.
how to achieve that in the face of US belligerence..which is the issue here?
Since when is self-defense a monstous act?
I’m glad you mentioned assassinations in your comments. Pompeo said this is now part of their ‘strategy’ to use against nations that get out of line. This means no public official either in the military or government is safe. These monsters are so filled with arrogance and stupidity they fail to understand that what goes around can come around. Perhaps none of them will be safe either. And Pompeo makes a big, fat, juicy target.
I am sure they are hell-bent to put a stop to that Northstream pipeline and also the Belt and Road trade initiative. I’m waiting to see if sanctions and threats fail if they may actually have the gall to physically attack the pipeline.
I just can’t see Europe ever really getting the nerve to oppose this and break out of their servitude. The entire west is suffering the same moral decay.
Craig,
I have no doubt that they would at least try to sabotage BRI pipelines and, quite possibly, hit them in air strikes.
Washington is that crazy.
They might even be insane enough to try to assassinate Putin.
If Europe had any courage, they might be able to stop this. Alas, Europe has no courage.
I believe, however, that the Western economy will collapse before the end of the year. This is what I am reduced to. I am reduced to wishing “economic misfortune” which would be personally devastating to me in order to avoid World War Three.
I’m just north of you Mike, in that other little fiefdom of slavelandia called Canada. Like yourself, I am reduced to both expecting and hoping for economic ruin in the west if it will stop them. Even if it leaves me destitute. I’m not sure it will stop them. And I expect what is coming is going to be devastating to the world economy. I wasn’t alive during the great depression but people did die and were reduced to utter poverty. Large segments of western society are already in poverty or teetering on the edge now while the con man in chief tweets that it is the greatest economy the world has ever seen. I can only imagine what is going to happen. Saying it is going to be difficult is an understatement. Maybe people will rediscover community? That would be a good start.
So, in practical terms, it sounds like, if you have some real property to sell, sell it now.
Is that right?
Then you will have cash when others are stuck with devalued stocks etc.?
Or overvalued property that no one else has the $$ to buy?
Regarding assassination as foreign policy, it must be a sign of our “leaders'” disconnection from reality not to understand they have just declared open season on themselves and their colleagues, wherever they may find themselves. Like gangland murders in the NYC in the eighties (the world that Guiliani tamed).
So, you are just leaving your favorite restaurant in Georgetown and a car pulls up, and BLAM. Or perhaps that is too old-fashioned. The drone hovers, and BLAM. Or, someone shoots a tiny pellet with nerve gas into your fat butt.
These chickens will come home to roost.
Katherine
I agree with what my friend above said about not acting so in response to western criminality that we become monsters ourselves. that is an important point. but Mike from Jersey also has a point: what if the Americans try to assassinate Putin..what if they succeeded?
and what makes then confident enough to try to go all the way killing the leaders of other nations, those whom they reason chllenges americans basic interests…that they got away with all the have done so far feeding their delusions that they are indeed superior and the world is afraid of them.
to be honest I have no idea what to do to put a fear into the west to stop their insanity before irrevocable lines are crossed. I mean Soleimani is an irrevocable line..an outright murder, to lure a leader by your own actions that suggested he was safe..into the open then slaughter him is well..beyond words. Iran however is not Russia. but if they do go as far as Putin which is merely the next step now that they got away with Soleimani, likely all hell breaks loose
I mean why not Putin!! Putin is the main organizer of de-dollarization..Putin has been preparing de-dollarization for years now
would the assassination of a few western leaders be enough to return Washingtom to some sort of restraint before they kill someone that warrants a real fight…or would it merely encourage them to escalate?
I dont know..but I would not wait. I would let them know that two can play that game so the practicality in the matter is to cease and desist immediately
“I would let them know that two can play that game ”
Maybe by targeting a lower-down. Kind of like shooting the hypersonic missiles.
Katherine
The US can create a lot of chaos but it definitely cannot win.
Can the US win if China decides that there is no other way then to go all out to militarily challenge the US?
Can the US attack and defeat Russia?
Can the US occupy Iran as a springboard into Central Asia?
No, No, and No.
For sure we know that the US Empire of Insanity will definitely end.
What we don’t know is how the exhaustion and neutralization of the US will end: will anybody be left to enjoy it?
AriusArmenian
You are right. It will end. And like you, I am hoping that it ends peacefully.
But it might not and that has me worried.
Great articles today on these issues by Pepe Escobar and William Engdahl.
A bit over hundred years ago there was a similar but much smaller inititive, thr railway Berlin-Baghdad.
The sea power did not like it and it was one reason for WW1.
Not really, Gunther. British opposition to the Berlin-Baghdad railway manifested itself in the 1-st Balkan War, Oct 1912 – May 1913. Large portion of this railway passes through Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece. These three countries, which were never united before, suddenly united as Balkan League, bait being pieces of Ottoman territories and a secret clause most likely stopping of a joint German-Ottoman railway project. They quickly got weapons and supplies, but just enough to defeat and push back Ottoman empire but not too far. In other words, Istanbul should not become again Constantinopolis, at least not yet. And that is what happened when war ended in a big piece conference, you will not be astonished to hear, in London on 30 May 1913. Very convenient. All players were there.
Regards, Spiral
Not really Spiral!
“First conceived in 1888, and formally begun in 1903, the rail line was highly controversial, and was a source of significant diplomatic friction between Germany and the other major European powers. It has been described as an important factor in precipitating the onset of World War I. ”
More info, and a map, here:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/this-week-in-world-war-i_b_6871470
Katherine
PS.
Multiple maps and some great historical photos at the link just posted.
Katherine
Barbarians. Homicidal Maniacs. There is no such possibility of sanity prevailing. The USA is an occupied place and has been, since the Native American Indians (~Palestinians~) were conquered. Batton down the hatches.
“For the US, this is indeed an existential battle – against the whole Eurasia integration process, the New Silk Roads, the Russia-China strategic partnership,…”
Not the US but the US Empire.
Two very different things.
The US Empire will not survive the next US president’s term of office unless they resort to nuclear weapons and go all out to destroy everyone else.
If they go for the nuclear option, no telling how it will end.
Most informed American citizens are aghast at the Country’s foreign Policies.
Those with this knowledge and some resources are steadily moving from urban areas to venues with arable land and small, cohesive populations that are off the beaten path; however the incessant Geo Engineering activities Worldwide might even make these activities by prudent preppers a Moot point.
I want to add on more point: India cannot and will not drop support for chhabar port in Iran.
Chhabar and peace in the Persian Gulf is a red line and strategic for India. In addition to Chhabar being vital, India received over $40Billion in cash remittances from the middle East: in the event of a war in the Persian Gulf, all of this would halt and all Indian nationals would be airlifted back to India (at great cost). The loss to India would exceed $100Billion from the war. So India is not going to budge on their strategic interests with Iran no matter how many tantrums the orange idiot in the Whitehouse throws and his neocon instigators.
The US Indo-Pacific strategy insofar as India is concerned does not include anything to do with Iran, only China. India’s relationship with Iran and any containment of China relationship with the US that ndia might enter are unrelated and decoupled. I doubt India will even officially enter a China containment strategy with the US.
If you want to see what right wing Indian hawks think of dropping their relationship with Iran for the sake of the discredited neocon conjob of the demonizing Iran because of its Islamic character – even the Hindu nationalists don’t buy it and are in favor of their strategic interests with Iran, here is an amusing example of it right after Trump’s dejected climbdown speech after killing General Suleimani and the subsequent pounding of US bases in Iraq (that Trump was impotent to stop)–>
–>Here is a rightwing Hindu nationalist hawk news show hosted by Arnab Goswami, a pro-military nationalist pro-BJP hawk. They spend the whole show ridiculing Trump, they created the hashtag #IRANSCARESTRUMP, they ridicule and beat up on the one Indian neocon (idiot) on the panel.
Here’s the link to the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dek6lvXFHa8
The main part of news show starts @10:50 after Trump’s speech.
Some choice quotes include (@19:36)
“The president of the United States on his knees appealing to China”
“The president of the United States on his knees appealing to Putin”
“It was a complete climb down” “He looked sick (ill)”
“The US is too weak to sustain a war against Iran that’s why they were appealing to their allies”
“We [India] want the US military out of Asia Period! [Ie get out of Iraq]”
“The US Indo-Pacific strategy insofar as India is concerned does not include anything to do with Iran, only China. India’s relationship with Iran and any containment of China relationship with the US that ndia might enter are unrelated and decoupled. I doubt India will even officially enter a China containment strategy with the US.”
The US Indo-Pacific Strategy is a strategy designed to contain China. If India is a part of this then officially it is in a containment strategy with the US.
The US is set on destroying Iran so that they can then take on China and Russia. India will soon need to decide which side it is on- the US or the other side. If India cannot stomach being in a group that includes China then it will have to be content with being a junior partner to the US in its global imperial adventure.
Needless to say such a partnership will end in failure and disappointment for India.
A lot hinges on which side India decides to join.
@jiri
I think I’ll put my faith in the policy experts in India who have intimate knowledge of the region, have access to intelligence data as well the private discussions the 2 governments are having that neither you nor I have. The fact is that China has committed hostile acts against India, continues expansionist land grabs (until the recent chinese climb down at doklam),: India is going keep paying China back in kind on these issues. Yet both countries continue to cooperate with each other against the abuses of the West in multilateral fora where they back up each other’s positions (climate change agreements, international trade conventions regarding developing countries, etc. Etc.).
Unlike the unrealistic model you put forth (which from my perspective boils down to: “you’re either with or against us” zero sum scenario) all of the major powers in the world pursue independent relations on a case by case basis: for instance Russia continues to arm Vietnam over China’s objections and Russian state owned enterprises continue to take hydrocarbons out of areas of the South China Sea under Vietnamese control over the objection of China. In addition, Russia continues to provide India with strategic military technology (nuclear subs) which has an impact against only one country, China. The nuclear sub assistance that Russia continues to supply India has enabled India to deploy their own ‘boomers’, submarines with sea launched nuclear missiles.
Now let’s follow your logic, does the above preclude Russia from sincerely pursuing a strategic partnership with China against Western hegemony? No it clearly doesn’t stop the two countries from cooperating on this front. Therefore, from what I’m observing, the zero sum scenario you portray does not appear to hold water.
Now will India join the indo Pacific strategy? I don’t know, but I do believe that if China continues to behave belligerently with India, it will likely shift the Indian calculus to join the US containment strategy. This issue is discussed very openly in India: if China respects our redlines, ie cease the mischief on our border, stop giving Pakistan cover at the UN for their cross border terrorism policy, recognize all of Kashmir is an integral part of india and ratify the border permanently, then India will guarantee to refuse to support the US if war breaks out between China and the US over Taiwan. In addition, during such a conflict, India would commit to only recognize the Chinese claim over that island. Not only that, but India will support the chinese BRI by giving access to BRI to india’s new dedicated freight railroad network and access to Indian deep water ports (20 secure Indian ports compared to Pakistan’s one vulnerable port at Gwadar) That’s what I believe is going between the 2 governments.
Superb comment.
It looks like didn’t properly post main comment critical of the article, so here it is:
More idealistic speculation from pepe Escobar: China is still in no position to challenge the USA economic terms let alone hard power overseas. There’s a lot of hard work that needs to be done before such a scenario becomes realizable in the near or medium term (explained at the bottom of this post). It seems me only Russia seems to be tackling from an overall strategic perspective, China only seems to supporting specific tactical aspects the align chinese interests or support individual projects. India’s support for an alternative world governance model is even more watered down and passive at best (because India is undergoing costly internal restructuring and will not be in a position to be a major factor for at least 5 years, when they should be a lot stronger, currently their focus internal and their immediate region).
The harsh reality is that the US holds key levers both financially (infrastructure, the ransom reserve currency, enforcement mechanisms) and technologically (all key hi-tech component from CPUs, DSP, Systolic array processors, support chips, memory architecture, hi-speed internal data-busses and all the defacto standards they entail are controlled and owned by the West (mostly the United States). Everyone’s “commercial” high tech is based on these key components, including China’s. Building an alternative open standards ecosystem of hi technology components is a long arduous process that requires the work of multiple countries (Taiwan, Korea, India, China, Russia, Germany, etc…) The other poles have a lot of work to do to transition away from these key dependencies controlled by the USA.
First they need to start with the low hanging fruit: the financial infrastructure, networks & standards (eg SWIFT) and institutions (like banks and reconciliation),. This has to be multilateral and not controlled by a sole country such as China for rapid adoption by the other poles and even small countries (otherwise what would be difference from the USA controlled monopoly we have today? The other countries will not accept an international trade system and standards dominated by any single country – the whole world has already been burned by the moronic orange idiot in the Whitehouse on this point). The same for an agreed upon international medium of exchange, post the US reserve currency status.
There is gradual decline of American dominance, accelerating as time goes by. Trump’s overtly abusive, idiotic, childish and crude exercise of this power based in the USA’s current dominant position has probably greatly sped-up the decline, but even an increased accelerated decline is still gradual in the early phase.
There seems to be only one strategic mind or leadership that is focussed on not dropping the ball in building this alternative multilateral framework: that’s Putin and Russia and not China nor India. The support for this necessary vision is primarily by Russia and is carried out as a strategic imperative, the support from China is currently partial and tactical based on narrow areas of self interest and the support from India even less than China, passive at best (India is currently restructuring internally and hence content to take a wait and see attitude except when the Whitehouse abusively present conditions that India perceives as existential untenable and only them shows real teeth, otherwise they stay passive trying to be friendly to both sides).
That’s the reality, not the idealistic fiction that China is focussed on realistic multilateral alternative system as flogged by the article. That credit goes only to Russia, with Putin doing his best to midwife the foundations of this multilateral, multi-polar international framework for stability and prosperity.
Citation from the article:
At the latest BRICS summit in Brasilia, President Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin that “the current international situation
with rising instability and uncertainty urge China and Russia to establish closer strategic coordination.” Putin’s
response: “Under the current situation, the two sides should continue to maintain close strategic communication.”
Doesn’t that implicitly acknowledge that there is NO deeper partnership? The coordination and communication is just forced by the “current situation”!
I don’t see any strategic vision connecting Russia, China, Iran. The sanctions etc are a godsend, they force these three states to become more independent. But as far as I can see, they “just want to do their own thing”, making some business (more for China, less for Russia), getting some piece of the cake, that’s it. China has internally a stronger vision, but that seems to be purely internally.
It seems to me that the Russian and Iranian middle classes are heavily invested into the “West”, the US etc. They just believe that “it’s Trump who’s the problem, that’s it”. And only the middle classes do the real work (which counts for the future).
The same also holds for China. It’s just talk, mostly, when they scold the US, since the “US is arrogant” (note — it’s not about a mass-murdering criminal, but just about somebody who doesn’t give you enough of its share). But the middle class still seems to have as its highest goal to send their children for studying in the US.
And it seems to me that the youth is even worse, all over the world. The totalitarian power of the new communication technology seems to have destroyed their minds. The only wall these three countries have are language barriers — and that might exactly explain why the lower classes of these three countries “still don’t get it”, while the middle classes “get it” (the “Western values”) — the lower classes just don’t have enough access to the worldwide totalitarian system. But these barriers will get lower and lower, due to various forms of automation.
The main weakness of these three countries (and of the rest of the “Non-West”) is that they don’t have a vision for the modern world, except of some family-values, some religion etc. — but that says absolutely nothing about the modern world, as it emerges, and thus these three countries follow the agenda of the “West” (the anglo-zionist countries).
There was the new Russian guy here on that site recently, who also seemed to emphasise to me that Russia has no vision. Like China and Iran, they where just waittiing to get integrated into the West, and for some reason that didn’t happen (a godsend!). But with a new nicer face for the US, they will throw away all independence. Perhaps at the heart is a serious mental laziness, these three countries just want to do their piece of business, that’s it.
Cooperation and trade are a very good vision for the the world and to prosper and grow as humans! These countries just want to do their own thing like everyone else! Hence the Western alliance wanting to keep the status quo by full spectrum dominance which will not happen for the world will come to a balance the BRI is being built and the ussa can only inhibit not stop its construction. Russia through its remarkable diplomacy and trustworthiness will win out over the bombastic ussa! These sanctions will have no effect after awhile since people adapt in order to survive. So, no vision? I think not quite the opposite in fact!
Quote: “The main weakness of these three countries (and of the rest of the “Non-West”) is that they don’t have a vision for the modern world, ….”
I beg to disagree :-) and refer you to these two speeches. There is vision alright – more than most can handle.
/presidents-putin-and-xi-deliver-keynote-speeches-at-spief/
Quote: “Doesn’t that implicitly acknowledge that there is NO deeper partnership? The coordination and communication is just forced by the “current situation”!”
I beg to disagree again and refer you to this writing by our own Larchmonter445. Pay attention to the ‘double helix’ descriptor. “The comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination”, is the new appellation.
“The key is coordination.”
There is more common and joint initiatives that the mind boggles – in practical terms, but direct feedback to policy makers.
/russia-china-sitrep-double-helix-strategic-coordinationrussia/
The nature of the relationship is completely different from what most Western eyes and ears can figure out. It is subtle, it is nuanced and it is exceedingly strong. The idea is not to make a bunch of supposed ‘free trade agreements’ and the bellow about them while they contain nothing, the key is to build strategy somewhat differently, by coordinating on the actual issues that are jointly important – A ‘3rd partner’ here is the global conditions. Putin and Xi Jinping are responsible people. ‘We share what we are doing, we help one another with problem solving. The West wants to wipe us out, both of us, so, lets do what needs to be done, event-driven, to keep those warmongers off our backs. But let’s not go and attack them.’ Putin has clearly said the dollar is weaponized and everyone needs to get out of it. China was really funny with this last so-called Free Trade Agreement. They handed Trump a so-called win that he could tweet about, but if you look at the detail of the agreement, it will last only two years, in business terms it is a fire sale, while the paragraphs start with China Shall .. and looks very impressive, each paragraph ends with ‘US shall show reciprocity’. And if the US breaks their word which they always do, China has the big advantage. They just stop buying.
Putin and Xi Jinping does not want the hegemon to tumble in a way that will economically break the world, or in a way that it needs a kinetic war. This is true of all the resistance countries. They are slowly but certainly, cohesively and via grassroots coordination working towards a tilt in the global balance of power.
We have never seen anything like this.
The ‘hegemon’ is no more — it is already tumbling:
at home, everything is collapsing: roads, infrastructure, institutions, etc., not to mention society, which is sick physically and mentally;
abroad, China and Russia won’t stop their development projects just because the US is scared of them.
The US should jump on the bandwagon lead by Russia and China.
Full agreement with amarynth (this time…lol) and MC.
Slight disagreement with Pepe and jiri and anyone nursing Friday Night at the Fights Adrenaline Addictions which may just never, ever willingly go “cold turkey” to the extent of giving up an addict’s craving for Another Rumble In the Jungle (Ali vs Foreman Cot 30, 1974)..on a Global Scale ..or Thrilla In Manila (Ali vs Frazier Oct 1, 1975) in the Pacific Basin or Orangutan Ran Away…(.In Teheran….2020.) In the Middle Eastern Crossroads…………mixed with righteous Stands for Multi-polarity, and Eurasian Connectivity (which i share).
What I don’t share is the idea that the USA top to bottom…………and west in general is just forever in the grip of Egoic Imperial Madmen and itching for the Mother of All Shootouts …..like “yesterday”.
The “movie”…maybe. The Real Thing?? I don’t think so. Not when push comes to shove, if we do our job right. A great many Americans can be won over as allies rejecting the adversarial straitjacket and Empire mind control. As most of you westerners here were.
Except you imagine you are the sole exception. HA!
Don’t be so cynical!
And THERE (in the minds of those awakening Ichabod Cranes) is the most promising wide open flank of consciousness …..and conscience…..for sanity …and peace through development (the USA actually accepting XI’s offer to join a Win-Win-Win peace through development perspective…rather than get killed trying to make the bulk of humanity …. that’s Eurasia, folks!….. The Losers)…a key to averting Tragedy…in favor of a more intelligent outcome………than getting killed in The Ring of “Geopolitics” Imperial System’s………..Mind Trap.
Bro 93 and Amarynth, thank you!
If there is any vision worthy of the name for our time, it is prevention of a nuclear holocaust.
The only practical way to do this is to get back to the way that has worked since WWII, the concept of it being unwinnable, the concept of MAD, mutually assure destruction.
Lately, that concept has been bypassed by two developments, (1)the development of anti-missile defense technology, and (2) the concept of placing missiles very close to the periphery of the enemy nation such that there is only a few minutes of warning of impending destruction.
Russia has dealt with the first, in that it has developed the hyper-missiles that are fast and maneuverable enough that no current or foreseeable anti-missile defense could prevent significant numbers of them being destroyed. This is a very good thing.
However, there remains the second development, the placing of launch sites so close to Russia and China that there would not be time enough for a significant number of them to be eliminated.
In the “The comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination” signed by President Xi and President Putin they state “…states should abandon the practice of“ joint nuclear missions ”and return all nuclear weapons located outside the nuclear countries to their national territories. ”
In other words, they call on all countries to refuse to host nuclear weapons of other countries. This is a vision, if enough countries are able to agree to such an agreement, that would prevent the second problem of making nuclear war seem winnable and feasible.
I believe this agreement, if doable, would be the significant achievement of our century.
/russia-china-sitrep-double-helix-strategic-coordinationrussia/
https://tass.ru/politika/6512391
“I don’t see any strategic vision connecting Russia, China, Iran. The sanctions etc are a godsend, they force these three states to become more independent. But as far as I can see, they “just want to do their own thing”, making some business (more for China, less for Russia), getting some piece of the cake, that’s it.”
It does appear to be so because China/Russia want to achieve their objectives peacefully.
The vision offered is that of multilateralism. This is in contrast to what the US wants- Full Spectrum Dominance and US exceptionalism. This is where the battle lines are drawn.
John Michael Greer was seeing a similar unfolding and described it in his novel Twightlight’s Last Gleaming: Saker did a positive review on this book when it came out.
Have to wonder whether Climate Change isn’t being used as a propaganda tool to drive a wedge to derail Iran and Iraq. An appeal to the “environmentalists” to view Iraqi and Iranian oil production as being something that must be controlled: this, of course, is what has been happening; sanctions throttling oil production in order to push economic collapse and regime change.
Sounds about right. America will go to full spectrum disgrace. Sorry about the dominance bit. Just watch out for the Lavrovian lashing about in the Empire’s death throes.
I have tried to explain many times why I believe using the word “Eurasia” as it currently is extensively by AngloEuro writers, opinion writers, journalists and others of the Academic / Metropolitan classes, is a huge mistake for Russia.
It constitutes a large part of Gramsci’s “march of Cultural Hegemony” using the spread across Universities and their related and flow on institutions, as part of it’s cultural attack on Russia. Tracing where the word came from illuminates exactly why promoting it’s use is antithetical to Russian autonomy in the world mind, in the perceptions of Russia.
One illustration of how this word is slowly being used to mean Russia, is that the “Eur…” stem refers to Europe. Yet none of these people EVER uses it to refer to Europe. I have never, EVER, read a European writer, from Germany, from France, Italy, Austria, refer to themselves as “Eurasians”.
The Brother “Stans” of Russia’s Islam Near Abroad are almost always referred to as “Central Asia”. So where is “Eurasia”? It’s sometimes Russia and China only, and increasingly, just Russia. This is a mechanism for blotting the concept of “Russia” out of the mass AngloEmpire mind, and replacing with the “everywhere but nowhere” name “Eurasia”. [For example, in the site link given in the article referring to “Greater Eurasia” the writer is clearly of Anglo Western culture. ]
However, the source of name is sinister in the current context.
I have documented this extensively here : https://themungbean2019.blogspot.com/2019/12/why-russia-should-reject-using-name.html as it’s too long to put into a comment section. There is something I find disturbing also. I have made this simple, objective observation on TWO other “alt-media’ sites purposing to be fighting against the NeoCons of Empire and for Russia. My observation is in favour of protecting Russia. Yet one of these refused to print my post and banned me, the other printed it but deleted it after 24 hours, reason refused!!
It does tend to make me think maybe I am too close too correct for their comfort.
Excellent observation. Let’s hope that the change starts in The Saker blog.
Second that. Always wondered what “Eurasia” referred to and ended up confused. Now I know why.
I thought “Eurasia” was in effect a state of mind that arises from a geographical concept conveying that the two supposed continents of Europe and Asia are actually one landmass, and in fact one continent. Europe is basically a peninsula of Asia. So to me the term “Eurasia” is more a state of mind and attitude than a concrete description.
Kind of like most regional descriptions. Middle East, Near East, Southeastern Europe, etc. —none of these is a specific area, and opinions differ as to what they mean/comprise. And they were all coined by people living outside the area. That makes them even more artificial.
I do think it is wrong to refer to Russia as Eurasia, if anyone is doing that, because if the above is correct, then Russia most definitely is not congruent with Eurasia, although Russia does have European and Asian regions.
I don’t mean to argue that “Eurasia” is not being used rhetorically or strategically. It is quite possible.
Katherine
Your view that “Eurasia ” is a state of mind and attitude is pretty much what one can call “Duganism” for want of another name Katherine. The Russian modern philosopher Dugin has outlined his belief that the West is trying to destroy all things Russian, and indeed in other nations, but only Russia has the wherewithal to resist and has been resisting. He said that this resistance is “Eurasia”. I have mentioned this in my piece to which I left a link.
Also I have shown via a quote from an article on New Asia Outlook journal writer Vladimir Platov his own comment that “it hardly needs to be stated that “North Eurasia” means Russia”. So yes, I have frequently read comments which refer to Russia as Eurasia. However in my article piece, I have pointed out where the naming of Russia and the Continent as “Eurasia” comes from. It’s from George Orwells “1984” and it’s meant derogatively.
Also the term was rarely used much outside of certain University departments before 1990.
What else happened between US and Russia in 1990. ??
And using this term fairly confidently tracks back to Harvard university from where the Sachs boys launched their “economic Shock” therapy on Russia.
Put 2 and 2 together – and note that when they make maps that if they dont refer to the Russian Steppes as the European Steppes, they are calling them the Eurasian Steppes, and the danger gets clearer I think.
However, please do read the entire article. I welcome comment
““Eurasian” was the descriptor given in British India during the days of the British Raj to the children of mixed parentage; Asian [India] and English. They were despised by both parent cultures and led pretty miserable lives. Such people were often pejoratively called “half-breeds” or “half-caste”; they were socially excluded, banned from clubs, avoided socially and isolated. The more impolite term used was “blacky –white.” It certainly wasn’t used in any positive or inclusive way. ”
Your last sentence, in the passive, obscures who was doing the using.
One of my oldest friends is an Anglo-Indian. This is the term these people use for themselves; they see themselves as a culturally distinctive group. She is very proud of her heritage. She enjoyed a privileged childhood in India (I cannot recall now in which state; a northern one). Her mother was a piano teacher, her grandfather a homeopathic healer. She is quite clear on how much Indian and how much English “blood” she carries. So what? India itself is perhaps the most “blood” conscious country on earth, with its hereditary castes. There are racial terms for everyone in India.
The Anglo-Indians came under quite a lot of pressure in parts of India at Partition.
Those who are interested in reading some interesting fiction and nonfiction that in part delves into the role and destiny of Anglo-Indians can check out John Masters. His most famous novel is Bhowani Junction (made into a film starring Ava Gardner, in 1958; BTW, the “exotic”-looking Ava Lavinia Gardner grew up in Mississippi).
I don’t think the use of the term “Eurasian” for Anglo-Indians is a very strong foundation to build a theory about the current use(s) of the term.
Regarding putatively Mongolian genes, many “Europeans” are proud to have the “Mongolian spot.” This blue pigmentation at the base of the spine shows that they have some Mongolian genetic heritage, they say.
Re “with many once “Russian and Oriental” institutions renaming themselves as “Eurasian”–
The word “Oriental” was an invention of the West and also carries a lot of imperialistic baggage (see Edward Said). That may be why some “Orientals” were happy to ditch it.
Re ” the collapse and virtual invasion of Russia by America. ”
Why do you use, for the United States, the name America that you decry?
The essay is interesting, but does not, IMO, demonstrate that the Russians’ own use of the term Eurasia is damaging to them. As you point out, people choose how to use such terms and impress their own meanings on them. Russia is currently engaged in a vast enterprise with China, to integrate economically all of the countries of “the Orient,” “Central Asia,” “the Middle East,” “Eastern Europe,” “Western Europe,” “the Iberian Peninsula,” “the Mediterranean Basin,” “The Persian Gulf,” “the Subcontinent,” “Russia’s Far East,” etc. The term “Eurasia” seems to be pretty good shorthand for the economic area so conceived, all of it interconnected by rail.
There is also such a thing as cultural appropriation; it may be that Russia has appropriated this term for its own purposes. Not to mention China and the Stans. (I imagine that the Stans do not actually appreciate being called the Stans.)
The issue of relocation to Northern Eurasia in case of environmental disaster is indeed a most interesting topic, and the use of the term within that context *by others* is definitely worth some attention. Although it is hard to see why Americans would have to relocate to Russia. It would be easier to “invade” Canada for this purpose, and a lot cheaper, too!!
Katherine
It’s sort of a Sisyphean task to ram and try to change a signifier without a signified (Saussure), since the concept of “Eurasia” has evolved from a vague definition of what Katherine (below comment) accurately describes as “a state of mind that arises from a geographical concept conveying that the two supposed continents of Europe and Asia are actually one landmass, and in fact one continent.” While the “Western partners” associate the concept with Russia’s neo-imperial ambitions, openly (or not) tying it to Mackinder’s Heartland theory, most recently the concept acquired a new meaning as Russia turned east toward better neighbors.
Russia’s historical pivot to the east only happened gradually after multiple blows from the “Western partners,” among them a slap on PM Putin for his idealistic “We propose the creation of a harmonious economic community stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok,” a tantalizing (for the EU) statement he made in an op-ed piece he wrote before a visit to Germany in 2011. The response from the West was a wedge call Ukraine, the last poodle on Eastern Europe (or is that Eastern Asia?:-) looking for adoption by the corrupt West, and it can be summarized in La Nuland “F*** the EU.” What was not recorded was her “F*** Russia, too,” but Putin got the message.
And the rest is history.
The concept will continue to be used with sundry meanings, each linked to different geopolitical interests, we have only to learn who is behind this or that acception.
Lone Wolf
I recall clearly the first time I saw the term “Eurasia”: in the title of a book I found in a thrift shop some decades ago.
The Land and Wildlife of Eurasia.
Part of the Life Nature Series, it was published in 1964 .
https://www.amazon.com/land-wildlife-Eurasia-nature-library/dp/B0006DY5P2
Some older Americans who comment here will surely recall the many wonderful series of informative books that were published by the Time Life Books division of the company that was then called Time Life (see list of titles in the Nature series here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_Nature_Library)
I leafed through the book and was immediately enthralled that it traced the natural history of the whole landmass on a continuum. In other words, the concept was to show how the natural regions and environments blended into each other, forming a natural whole in which political boundaries were irrelevant.
It just so happened that I knew the son of the editor of the whole Time-Life Books operation. So I bought the book. I still have it today.
In this case the term “Eurasia” signaled that the landmass was a “natural” natural history entity and had to be studied as such to be understood. Thus it could be said that this usage was a quasi-scientific use in the context of the newly emerging science and concept of ecology. In the ecological way of thinking, everything in the web of nature is interconnected—the aim of the discipline of ecology is to learn more and more about all of the the interconnections. The whole landmass would be the obvious unit of natural history study.
As opposed to the CIA handbooks, which categorize and quantify each country’s assets, resources, terrain, etc.within its political borders.
“Eurasia” as an ecological term seems to me to be a good model for “Eurasia” as an economic term that signals the goal of creating interconnections among all of the landmass’s regions, via rail, waterways, pipelines, telecommunications, financial structures, etc.
Katherine
Pepe Escobar is prophetic, predicting “the New Great Game in Eurasia, which pits the US against Russia, China and Iran.” His warning to be “ready for the battle of the ages” is in sync with the pattern of history.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Pepe Escobar is perhaps unique in combining on-the-ground observations with big-picture interpretations, as this piece makes clear. Excellent analysis!
“The Deep State and crucial sectors of the US ruling class are absolutely terrified that China is already outpacing the “indispensable nation” economically and that Russia has outpaced it militarily. ”
I don’t buy that deep state = US
US is split, and may collapse into civil war any day.
There is constant infighting in US media. I have never seen anything like that. US is turning crazy. Last headlines: -Try to get out guns and you will need the 50,000 bodybag you (governor) just ordered.
Very good analysis of the world situation, the China, Russia Irán axe is showing its theet, the american power is finished!!
“For the US, this is indeed an existential battle –”
Well, we don’t need to fight this battle to exist.
It is the military crazies who see this as “existential.”
It is the financial crazies who want to keep the profits coming only to them, not to the rest of US society.
For them it is “existential.”
Seems to me that for Americans and American society generally (not to mention the rest of the world! not to mention the biosphere), this battle is the opposite of existential:
Namely, suicidal.
Katherine
Far be it for me to question such exceptional and exceptionally well informed commentary, yet there are some things here I would characterize differently.
First, I date the perpetual war full spectrum domination policy I dates from August 6, 1945 because not one day has passed sense that one on which the Western Empire through the USA has not slaughtered innocent people around the globe. Much earlier than Chaney in 2002.
Second of all, of course this empire like the others before it and from which it is made will not go quietly. The question for me is, will they move out into the world with their small nuclear weapons, it seems the most salient question.
As is pointed out imperial slaughter for total domination has been going on for 500 years think of the hundreds of millions already slaughtered – think the won’t just nuclear weapons, think again.
Capitalism, imperialism have long been waging their satanic war on life. Now Iran seems ready to respond and make this war total, for the oppressed will always be steadfast. The US/zionists will never stop seeking destruction of Iran, Russia, China. War cannot be avoided… https://www.purestream-media.com/portfolio/the-warning-of-husaynis-to-yazidis-farsi-sub-english/
I posted a comment to an article on E.J. Magnier’s blog “Middle East Politics” with the headline “A New Middle East ‘Made in Iran’ Is About To Be Born,” which coincidentally touched on similar points Pepito (as we call him in Portuguese) made in his well-written article, with more space to expand than a simple comment. Glad my beloved Gramsci, sacrificed to old bastard Europe Nazi-Fascist puppet Mussolini, is becoming relevant again.
https://ejmagnier.com/2020/01/09/a-new-middle-east-made-in-iran-is-about-to-be-born/
Lone Wolf
——————-
LONE WOLF
11/01/2020 at 1:30 pm
A good insight into what could become THE real birth pangs of a New Middle East.
Thanks for a hopeful vision of the future for a region that has suffered for centuries, non-stop, the plundering and pillaging of their lands and natural resources by Western colonial and imperialist powers.
Even if the New Middle East carries the “Made in Iran” label, the latest developments take place against a different historical backdrop than, let’s say Bush II invasion of Iraq. Iran’s Path of Resistance designed by Ayatollah Khomeini, against the siege imposed by a hostile and aggressive West motivated by greed, forced Iran to develop its own strength at all levels, short of a nuclear option. Iran’s newly found power allowed it to carve a niche within the umbrella of protection provided by both Russia and China.
Iran has been greatly benefited by the new realities Russia and China have created in the Eurasian heartland, and the red lines those two behemoths imposed on the “Western partners,” to paraphrase Putin. Those facts on the ground provided Iran with a strategic depth the West has only grown more aware of, as the Russians and the Chinese matched and then surpassed them with their new weaponry. As you pointed out in a former article, Russia and China are “waiting in the wings” for Iran, a triangulation of the Heartland key to the new Multipolar World.
Even with Iran’s highly developed missile technology which has allowed them to hit any coordinates with pinpoint accuracy, Western powers would have made an attempt to obliterate them if they would have been alone in confronting them. The rumor goes Russia warned the US in no uncertain terms, and the Chinese, for whom Iran is key for the BRI project, were even more eager to jump into the fray.
Iran’s importance as a target for the West only grew as the region became a geopolitical playground between the old unipolar world and the nascent multipolarity, besides being a cornerstone of resistance in what has been another US/West backyard for more than a century. Iran (and neighbors) are the last piece in the puzzle to free the Heartland from foreign domination, and the West is reasonably afraid of the exponential power Russia, China, and Iran together will muster.
Let us hope a new paradigm will be born out of a region in constant, permanent, Western-created crisis, which, following our beloved Gramsci definition, “it is a period when the old hasn’t die, and the new hasn’t been born.”
Lone Wolf
As a matter of fact, one of the volumes in the Life Nature Series was “Ecology,” by Peter Farb.
Although, according to Merriam Webster, the term’s first known use was in 1873, in the early sixties it was just becoming generally known. I recall seeing the word, and a brief definition, tacked up on the main bulletin board at my secondary school in the early sixties. I had never seen the word but I immediately understood what it meant.
Katherine
It has to be considered that the US might use nuclear weapons on Iran. With a not insignificant chance a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan will eventually follow. One or especially both together will spell the end of BRI. The only other way BRI will not progress is a financial and then social/political dislocation of China.
Pepe always ignores that the story of China is firstly a monetary story. China’s rise is a monetary phenomena. A stupendous expansion of money/credit. Something that has occurred in the dollar world as well but not on the same scale. It is malpractice to ignore this and is a gigantic hole in all his analysis.
Also needing mention is that he ignores climate change. While Mr Escobar gets out of his armchair and visits the world unlike most Grand Global Strategic Thinkers the things he ignores renders his stories woefully incomplete.
And now that you’ve called Pepe’s work ‘woefully inadequate’ and ‘malpractice’ with ‘gigantic holes’, with no clue on length of submission and that he did not write a book containing what you want to see, or evidently no idea of Pepe’s previous work, we are holding our breath in anticipation for you to offer something that is brilliantly adequate, contains no holes and no malpractice.
‘No US rival in Eurasia will be tolerated!’ Zbigniew Brzezinski.
‘The nation which controls Eurasia will control the world.’ The british geographer, Halford Mackinder, who invented the terms, ‘Heartland’ and ‘World Island’ to denote this vitally important to control region of the world.
In Eurasia you find 67% of the planet’s natural resources wealth. What we’re witnessing is a battle to have dominion over this biggest geostrategic prize.
According to the french astrophysicist, Jean-Pierre Petit, the USA developed anti-matter ‘bucky bombs’ thanks to their underground nuclear tests, and these arms can wipe out any nation that defies and jeopardises the Empires’ long-lasting power grab. Without any nasty radiation:-)
It’ll be more than interesting to observe what kind of a baby will be born out of all the current geopolitical birth pangs. Is there a gynecologist in the house? Forceps or cesarien!
If “the deep state and crucial sectors of the US ruling class” are “absolutely terrified” of China, then why have they cooperated with China’s ruling elite since the 1970’s? They helped build up China, econimically, technologically, and militarily. Can you explain that?
China and the New World Order
by Corbett Report, 9 nov. 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M1KD7Dnq4s
Russia, China and the western globalists/international banking cartel have identical views on the “petrodollar” and what should replace it. Why is that?
Get Ready For A World Currency
The Economist, 1988
“The world [currency] supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF.”
“The [world currency] would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today.”
https://www.goldbroker.com/news/the-economist-get-ready-for-a-world-currency-by-2018-1179
Financial Crisis: Gordon Brown calls for ‘new Bretton Woods’
13 Oct 2008
“It is understood that the Prime Minister wishes to see the IMF reformed to become a “global central bank” closely monitoring the international economy and financial system.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3189517/Financial-Crisis-Gordon-Brown-calls-for-new-Bretton-Woods.html
Russia Proposes Creation Of Global Super-Reserve Currency
MARCH 16, 2009
“Russia calls for reforming the international currency and financial system with the aim to strengthen its stability and control. In that connection the Russian side suggests discussing the possibility of expanding the list of currencies to be used as reserve ones, on the basis of the adoption of agreed measures to stimulate the development of major regional financial centers, and also “the creation of a supra-national reserve currency that will be issued by international financial institutions.”
“It looks expedient to reconsider the role of the IMF in that process and also to determine the possibility and need for taking measures that would allow for the SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) to become a super-reserve currency recognized by the world community,” the document says.
Also, Russia in the medium and long-term is for a revision of the role and mandate of the IMF in order to adjust both to a new structure of the world currency and financial system, whose modification is to be completed as a result of the current crisis.
For the purpose of overcoming the current crisis it will be necessary to considerably increase the resources of the IMF.”
https://www.infowars.com/russia-proposes-creation-of-global-super-reserve-currency/
China calls for new reserve currency
MARCH 24, 2009
“China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.
To replace the current system, Mr Zhou suggested expanding the role of special drawing rights, which were introduced by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime but became less relevant once that collapsed in the 1970s.
Today, the value of SDRs is based on a basket of four currencies – the US dollar, yen, euro and sterling – and they are used largely as a unit of account by the IMF and some other international organisations.
China’s proposal would expand the basket of currencies forming the basis of SDR valuation to all major economies and set up a settlement system between SDRs and other currencies so they could be used in international trade and financial transactions.
Countries would entrust a portion of their SDR reserves to the IMF to manage collectively on their behalf and SDRs would gradually replace existing reserve currencies.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7851925a-17a2-11de-8c9d-0000779fd2ac
Scrap dollar as sole reserve currency: U.N. report
JUNE 29, 2010
“The report supports replacing the dollar with the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights (SDRs), an international reserve asset that is used as a unit of payment on IMF loans and is made up of a basket of currencies.
“A new global reserve system could be created, one that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency,” the U.N. report said.
The report said a new reserve system “must not be based on a single currency or even multiple national currencies but instead, should permit the emission of international liquidity — such as SDRs — to create a more stable global financial system.”
“Such emissions of international liquidity could also underpin the financing of investment in long-term sustainable development,” it said.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-dollar-reserves-un/scrap-dollar-as-sole-reserve-currency-u-n-report-idUSTRE65S40620100629
France’s Sarkozy says time to consider SDR role
DECEMBER 13, 2010
“French officials have said they hope to encourage greater use of the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency during their G20 presidency, including talks on a possible timetable for its inclusion in the basket of currencies which underpin the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights.
Other ideas include encouraging a greater role for the SDR itself as a reserve currency, in an effort to move away from dollar hegemony.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-sarkozy/frances-sarkozy-says-time-to-consider-sdr-role-idUKTRE6BC2S320101213
IMF calls for dollar alternative
February 10, 2011
“The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system.”
https://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm
The Most Important Story You Didn’t See This Week
1 oct, 2016
“The yuan was officially added to the IMF’s SDR basket today, which may not be world-shattering in and of itself. But when combined with the revival of SDR-denominated bonds there can be no doubt that the central bankers are making their play for a global currency.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtOmnZdVFQM
IMF’s Special Drawing Rights should go digital – China central bank researcher
NOVEMBER 17, 2015
“The International Monetary Fund should create a digital version of its global reserve currency that could be more widely used across the world’s financial markets and payment systems, a senior Chinese central bank researcher said on Tuesday.
Yao Yudong, head of the People Bank of China’s Research Institute of Finance and Banking, said in a column in the state-backed Shanghai Securities News that the eSDR – the electronic version of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) – would help address flaws in the current global monetary system.
Additionally, the role of the SDR should be expanded, Yao said, echoing suggestions made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in 2009.
His proposals include establishing a settlement system between SDR and other currencies, and promoting the use of SDR in global trade, financial transactions, commodities pricing and bookkeeping.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-currency-sdr/imfs-special-drawing-rights-should-go-digital-china-c-bank-researcher-idUSL3N13C14720151117
IMF’s Lagarde [now the president of the European Central Bank] says it’s time to get serious about digital currency
OCT 13, 2017
“Lagarde didn’t rule out that the IMF could at some point develop its own cryptocurrency. She pointed to the IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR), a currency the IMF created to serve as an international reserve asset, that could incorporate technology similar to cryptocurrencies.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/bitcoin-get-serious-about-digital-currency-imf-christine-lagarde-says.html
Could the IMF’s ‘world currency’ help encourage global unity?
by Mohamed El-Erian*, 24 Apr, 2017
“Amid the rise of populism and nationalism, some are asking if revamping the SDR could re-energise multilateralism”
* Mohamed A. El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz and a member of its International Executive Committee. He is chairman of president Barack Obama’s Global Development Council.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/24/imf-populism-nationalism-sdr-reserve-currency
Time for a True Global Currency
Apr 5, 2019 JOSÉ ANTONIO OCAMPO*
“The International Monetary Fund’s global reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, is one of the most underused instruments of multilateral cooperation. Turning it into a true global currency would yield several benefits for the global economy and the international monetary system.”
* José Antonio Ocampo is a board member of Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, a professor at Columbia University, and Chair of the UN’s Committee for Development Policy. He was Minister of Finance of Colombia and United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-special-drawing-right-global-currency-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2019-04?barrier=accesspaylog
[Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the BIS Financial Stability Board] Mark Carney calls for global monetary system to replace the dollar
AUGUST 23, 2019
https://www.ft.com/content/a775b55a-c5c2-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9
Mark Carney: “Now the issue is you don’t just jump to something new overnight. And what we want in a multi polar world, I think we would agree we have European engine, we’ve got the Chinese engine, we’ve got the U.S. engine of this economy, a multi polar world, you need a multi polar currency. The question is how you get there? And I laid out ideas of how you would get there.”
Interviewer: “The bottom line is all of the pressure on the difference in growth around the world would not fall on the dollar exchange rate… It would be spread out if it was a global basket of currency is what you are saying.”
Mark Carney: “It would be spread out as a global basket of currencies. It is better for the system as a whole. It raises that equilibrium level of interest rates.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPgWAWNyqMU
Speculative Nature of Bitcoin Highlights Role for IMF-Backed Digital Currency, Ex-Central Banker Says
Nov 12, 2019
“[Jean-Claude] Trichet supported the idea of a global digital currency backed by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) own reserve asset, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of currencies comprising the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, British pound and yuan.
Speaking at the 10th Caixin Summit in Beijing on Sunday, Trichet said that using the SDR as the reserve asset that backs an international digital currency would be a good choice because it would help promote its use in the private sector.”
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-12/speculative-nature-of-bitcoin-highlights-role-for-imf-backed-digital-currency-ex-central-banker-says-101482633.html
“We support the reform and improvement of the international monetary system, with a broad-based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty. We welcome the discussion about the role of the SDR in the existing international monetary system including the composition of SDR’s basket of currencies. We support the IMF to make its surveillance framework more integrated and even-handed.”
— Fifth BRICS Summit Declaration
A little footnote on the USA and Hypersonics.
Marquardt Corporation sustained Mach 7 for three minutes in 1983, as part of research in support of the National Aero-Space Plane (NASP) program, which was ultimately killed by Ronnie because he redirected the budget to chase SDI-STAR WARS. Since that time, US researchers have not solved the primary heat transfer problem. How do you ensure the leading edge of the plane, jet, rocket DOES NOT MELT while flying hypersonic. Specialty EBC/TBC coatings have not worked. Cooling with the fuel, hydrogen, whatever has not worked. Film Boiling Cooling with Wicking has shown promise but needs work. The US is not there.
Now here’s the crazy part. The Russians and Chinese have already solved it and have spent the last decade perfecting it and building upon.
USA population is 330 Million. China’s population is 1 Billion. For every one engineer, the US can put to the problem the Chinese can apply three engineers. For every kid that likes Math and Science in the USA., the Chinese can find 10 kids. For every millenial in the USA, the Chinese have ten twenty-somethings working at an absurdly high level.
The point is it’s over. As in GAME OVER. The USA is never going to catch that speeding train that passed it in the night. When it comes to war, the US will sustain immense losses in Aircraft Carriers, Bombers, and Fighters, all within the first week.
In response, our insane and delusional politicians and generals (goaded by the Neo-cons) will launch the Nukes just to try and save face.
The madness needs to stop. The madness needs to stop now.
Although we have lots of friends who spend the winter in the USA, and several American friends, we haven’t been in the USA for maybe 20 years, and then only for a few hours because our flight was diverted to Detroit because of a snow storm.
I’m not too concerned about the USA trying to assassinate Vladimir Putin because the military leaders are aware that the retaliation would be fast and effective – and absolutely unstoppable for the next 5-10 years (for starters Washington, D.C. would be vaporized, possibly along with Jerusalem, where Trump’s orders originate).
Although I have no issues with American people, I’m disgusted with the way the USA treats ANY other country in the world that US politicians believe is worth looting. But I have my own pacifist manner of “expressing” my displeasure. As most people know, the USA has managed to bankrupt itself by placing as many as 800 military bases throughout the world – which are mostly DETESTED by the occupied countries – and yet Trump thinks the “hosts” should actually pay him for the “protection.” So a few years ago, I started to pay a lot more attention to virtually all the purchases I make – and if any item has a “made in U.S.A.” label on it, I put it back on the shelf and find a similar item manufactured elsewhere. I was surprised to learn that almost all the parts I have needed for both machinery and cars/trucks is made in Japan and is usually less expensive than identical-looking parts from the USA. While this is not good for American workers – and is not really effective on its own – if a few billion people around the world were to follow my example, eventually someone among the VERY few aids Trump has left would explain to him why this reaction to his ridiculous sanctions, tariffs, and threats has the potential to actually destroy the American economy even faster than he’s doing right now.
While this is a plausible description of what the future might hold, predictions rarely turn out the way futurists predict.
The Roaring 20’s was also preceded by the Spanish Flu (1918-19)
History, is rhyming a little to hard and cynically for comfort.
At least this time, there is no aspirin equivalent to worsen casualties. By suppressing fever and thinning blood, patients encouraged to chow down on aspirin short circuited their own bodies’ immune response, drowning in excess fluids accumulating in the lungs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/health/13aspirin.html
Still, China has been effectively disconnected form the world.