The Kabul Airport bombing shows there are shadowy forces in Afghanistan, willing to disrupt a peaceful transition after US troops leave. But what about US intel’s own ‘shadow army,’ amassed over two decades of occupation? Who are they, and what is their agenda?
by Pepe Escobar with permission and special and first posting for the new website The Cradle.
So we have the CIA Director William Burns deploying in haste to Kabul to solicit an audience with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar, the new potential ruler of a former satrapy. And he literally begs him to extend a deadline on the evacuation of US assets.
The answer is a resounding “no.” After all, the 31 August deadline was established by Washington itself. Extending it would only mean the extension of an already defeated occupation.
The ‘Mr. Burns goes to Kabul’ caper is by now part of cemetery of empires folklore. The CIA does not confirm or deny Burns met Mullah Baradar; a Taliban spokesman, delightfully diversionist, said he was “not aware” of such a meeting.
We’ll probably never know the exact terms discussed by the two unlikely participants – assuming the meeting ever took place and is not crass intel disinformation.
Meanwhile, Western public hysteria is, of all things, focused on the imperative necessity of extracting all ‘translators’ and other functionaries (who were de facto NATO collaborators) out of Kabul airport. Yet thundering silence envelops what is in fact the real deal: the CIA shadow army left behind.
The shadow army are Afghan militias set up back in the early 2000s to engage in ‘counter-insurgency’ – that lovely euphemism for search and destroy ops against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Along the way, these militias practiced, in droves, that proverbial semantic combo normalizing murder: ‘extrajudicial killings,’ usually a sequel to ‘enhanced interrogations.’ These ops were always secret as per the classic CIA playbook, thus ensuring there was never any accountability.
Now Langley has a problem. The Taliban have kept sleeper cells in Kabul since May, and much earlier than that in selected Afghan government bodies. A source close to the Ministry of Interior has confirmed the Taliban actually managed to get their hands on the full list of operatives of the two top CIA schemes: the Khost Protection Force (KPF) and the National Directorate of Security (NDS). These operatives are the prime Taliban targets in checkpoints leading to Kabul airport, not random, helpless ‘Afghan civilians’ trying to escape.
The Taliban have set up quite a complex, targeted operation in Kabul, with plenty of nuance – allowing, for instance, free passage for selected NATO members’ Special Forces, who went into town in search of their nationals.
But access to the airport is now blocked for all Afghan nationals. Yesterday’s double tap suicide-car bombing has introduced an even more complex variable: the Taliban will need to pool all their intel resources, fast, to fight whatever elements are seeking to introduce domestic terror attacks into the country.
The RHIPTO Norwegian Centre for Global Analyses has shown how the Taliban have a “more advanced intelligence system” applied to urban Afghanistan, especially Kabul. The “knocking on people’s doors” fueling Western hysteria means they know exactly where to knock when it comes to finding collaborationist intel networks.
It is no wonder Western think tanks are in tears about how undermined their intel services will be in the intersection of Central and South Asia. Yet the muted official reaction boiled down to G7 Foreign Ministers issuing a mere statement announcing they were “deeply concerned by reports of violent reprisals in parts of Afghanistan.”
Blowback is indeed a bitch. Especially when you cannot fully acknowledge it.
From Phoenix to Omega
The latest chapter of CIA ops in Afghanistan started when the 2001 bombing campaign was not even finished. I saw it for myself in Tora Bora, in December 2001, when Special Forces came out of nowhere equipped with Thuraya satellite phones and suitcases full of cash. Later, the role of ‘irregular’ militias in defeating the Taliban and dismembering al-Qaeda was feted in the US as a huge success.
Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai was, to his credit, initially against US Special Forces setting up local militias, an essential plank of the counter-insurgency strategy. But in the end that cash cow was irresistible.
A central profiteer was the Afghan Ministry of Interior, with the initial scheme coalescing under the auspices of the Afghan Local Police. Yet some key militias were not under the Ministry, but answered directly to the CIA and the US Special Forces Command, later renamed as the infamous Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).
Inevitably, CIA and JSOC got into a catfight over controlling the top militias. That was solved by the Pentagon lending Special Forces to the CIA under the Omega Program. Under Omega, the CIA was tasked with targeting intel, and Special Ops took control of the muscle on the ground. Omega made steady progress under the reign of former US President Barack Obama: it was eerily similar to the Vietnam-era Operation Phoenix.
Ten years ago, the CIA army, dubbed Counter-terrorist Pursuit Teams (CTPT), was already 3,000 strong, paid and weaponized by the CIA-JSOC combo. There was nothing ‘counter-insurgency’ about it: These were death squads, much like their earlier counterparts in Latin America in the 1970s.
In 2015, the CIA got its Afghan sister unit, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), to establish new paramilitary outfits to, in theory, fight ISIS, which later became locally identified as ISIS-Khorasan. In 2017, then-CIA Chief Mike Pompeo set Langley on an Afghan overdrive, targeting the Taliban but also al-Qaeda, which at the time had dwindled to a few dozen operatives. Pompeo promised the new gig would be “aggressive,” “unforgiving,” and “relentless.”
Those shadowy ‘military actors’
Arguably, the most precise and concise report on the American paramilitaries in Afghanistan is by Antonio de Lauri, Senior Researcher at the Chr. Michelsen Institute, and Astrid Suhrke, Senior Researcher Emerita also at the Institute.
The report shows how the CIA army was a two-headed hydra. The older units harked back to 2001 and were very close to the CIA. The most powerful was the Khost Protection Force (KPF), based at the CIA’s Camp Chapman in Khost. KPF operated totally outside Afghan law, not to mention budget. Following an investigation by Seymour Hersh, I have also shown how the CIA financed its black ops via a heroin rat line, which the Taliban have now promised to destroy.
The other head of the hydra were the NDS’s own Afghan Special Forces: four main units, each operating in its own regional area. And that’s about all that was known about them. The NDS was funded by none other than the CIA. For all practical purposes, operatives were trained and weaponized by the CIA.
So, it’s no wonder that no one in Afghanistan or in the region knew anything definitive about their operations and command structure. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in trademark infuriating bureaucratese, defined the operations of the KPF and the NDS as appearing “to be coordinated with international military actors (emphasis mine); that is, outside the normal government chain of command.”
By 2018, the KPF was estimated to harbor between 3,000 to over 10,000 operatives. What few Afghans really knew is that they were properly weaponized; well paid; worked with people speaking American English, using American vocabulary; engaged in night operations in residential areas; and crucially, were capable of calling air strikes, executed by the US military.
A 2019 UNAMA report stressed that there were “continuing reports of the KPF carrying out human rights abuses, intentionally killing civilians, illegally detaining individuals, and intentionally damaging and burning civilian property during search operations and night raids.”
Call it the Pompeo effect: “aggressive, unforgiving, and relentless” – whether by kill-or-capture raids, or drones with Hellfire missiles.
Woke Westerners, now losing sleep over the ‘loss of civil liberties’ in Afghanistan, may not even be vaguely aware that their NATO-commanded ‘coalition forces’ excelled in preparing their own kill-or-capture lists, known by the semantically-demented denomination: Joint Prioritized Effects List.
The CIA, for its part, couldn’t care less. After all, the agency was always totally outside the jurisdiction of Afghan laws regulating the operations of ‘coalition forces.’
The dronification of violence
In these past few years, the CIA shadow army coalesced into what Ian Shaw and Majed Akhter memorably described as The Dronification of State Violence, a seminal paper published in the Critical Asian Studies journal in 2014 (downloadable here).
Shaw and Akhter define the alarming, ongoing process of dronification as: “the relocation of sovereign power from the uniformed military to the CIA and Special Forces; techno-political transformations performed by the Predator drone; the bureaucratization of the kill chain; and the individualization of the target.”
This amounts to, the authors argue, what Hannah Arendt defined as “rule by nobody.” Or, actually by somebody acting beyond any rules.
The toxic end result in Afghanistan was the marriage between the CIA shadow army and dronification. The Taliban may be willing to extend a general amnesty and not exact revenge. But to forgive those who went on a killing rampage as part of the marriage arrangement may be a step too far for the Pashtunwali code.
The February 2020 Doha agreement between Washington and the Taliban says absolutely nothing about the CIA shadow army.
So, the question now is how the defeated Americans will be able to keep intel assets in Afghanistan for its proverbial ‘counter-terrorism’ ops. A Taliban-led government will inevitably take over the NDS. What happens to the militias is an open question. They could be completely taken over by the Taliban. They could break away and eventually find new sponsors (Saudis, Turks). They could become autonomous and serve the best-positioned warlord paymaster.
The Taliban may be essentially a collection of warlords (jang salar, in Dari). But what’s certain is that a new government will simply not allow a militia wasteland scenario similar to Libya. Thousands of mercenaries of sorts with the potential of becoming an ersatz ISIS-Khorasan, threatening Afghanistan’s entry into the Eurasian integration process, need to be tamed. Burns knows it, Baradar knows it – while Western public opinion knows nothing.
At least Operation Enduring Heroin Ratline is coming to an end. I guess the new CIA cash crop is fentanyl? Or is that more like Chinese revenge for the Opium Wars?
I was wondering about that also. Evacuating before the Opium harvest? The C.I.A. and more than a few “black budget’s” are funded from the opium crop. Spelling out “Don’t Do Drugs,” and; This is wrong, all the Way Around,” just doesn’t do the Value of Right and Wrong Justice.
While all the chaos was happening at Kabul airport, the US quietly (metaphorically speaking) demolished the CIA extraordinary rendition interrogation site at Base Eagle near Kabul. They also quietly heli-vacced a load of State Dept (=CIA?) operatives out of harms way.
The hidden Kabul evacuation.
Pepe, excellent in depth report. Your intelligence gathering is admirable. Always read your articles with the utmost attention.
From the words of General Flynn (JSOC Intel) and Seal Team Operators and other vets of the “war”, this Afghan war has been in counter-insurgency mode since 2010. Thus, the decapitation, assassination programs with local militias is logical. That’s what counter-insurgency looks like. It has no heroics. It is cold, ruthless, and forms into a terror of its own, on purpose to drive local support away from the insurgents and help dry up “the sea” within which they “swim”.
The British in the Philippines organized the modern model first. The US has been employing the tactics over and over for decades on virtually every continent where they faced enemies or threats.
Drone strikes or sniper shots from a mile off or a knife to a throat or crossfire in a kill zone, the idea is death to the insurgents and their insurgency.
We can expect the CIA will regroup, retrain, rearm and bankroll their own insurgency to destabilize the Taliban.
It is unlikely Afghan will ever be in peaceful development. It is more likely to be a South Asian Cuba, a perennial target for Langley and an exercise ground fro JSOC-PMCs
Now I understand better the depth of the following remark,
‘ignorance is bliss’.
Pepe summed up that bit perfectly about the oblivious nature of Western public to their govts domestic and transnational sheer criminality.
A harrowing and horrific account of arrogance, impunity and murder on a global scale.
Research the term “covert operations”.
Then, check into “national security classification”, tiers of secrecy.
You will come to a more sophisticated conclusion that the public is kept blind, deaf and dumbed down by the nature of the “work” CIA does. It’s the law of the land. And all nations act similarly. It’s the way of nations.
I’m pretty a sure a critical mass know the crimes of empire without digging too much into CIA files.
“We can expect the CIA will regroup, retrain, rearm and bankroll their own insurgency to destabilize the Taliban.”
Without opium-money from Afghanistan CIA will have hard time to bankroll anybody in foreseeable future. I agree on other two points. Plenty of suicide missions, yes, but no game changer.
Please Blackring, think of what you have just stated. (Plenty of suicide missions) Those people left behind under cover will be extremely valuable to their masters, and thus will not be ‘suicided’.
This however does explain the ‘fmr. US Special ops personnel going into Kabul to ‘rescue’ their former buddies.
Sometimes a little knowledge can open a whole new panorama and explain much more to the unenlightened.
Thanks Pepe!
Sorry for being vague when using catchy phrases like “suicide missions”. My point is that planners and leaders in CIA and the rest of Western darlings still live in good old times. Their host country, (cash cow, suggar-daddy ) is in deep $&it on every level possible. No more real money for expensive toys. Like every spoiled children, CIA&Co. won’t accept reality and will try to live like they always did.
When reality bites, they will stop to properly support proxies, and inevitable consequence will be series of botched operations, followed with huge casualties. That’s what “suicide missions” means.
After century if being mocked by CIA&Co, China and Russia will give free help to Afghanis with sadistic smile on the face.
It is rather long chain of conclusions, but find any link that is not based in reality. Or example in life that one didn’t always led to another. In the end, CIA&friends will not find role in Vietnam remake. It will be more like Syrian experience like in Aleppo or Eastern Ghouta.
“It is unlikely Afghan will ever be in peaceful development”
I think you are being unnecessarily negative. When the CIA loses its bases in neighbouring countries, it will be logistically difficult for them to do much. The weak link is Pakistan. But China has considerable and increasing clout there. Let’s not forget that Afghanistan was quite a peaceful place until foreigners started meddling.
Certainly, the Chinese, the Russians and the Iranians have strategic reasons to ensure stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to be taken on board.
A big chunk of Pakistan is termed “tribal area”. That is why Pakistan’s military Intel, ISI, operates terrorist organizations. Proxy armies are useful things. As are PMCs. As are ‘secret armies’, especially in counter-insurgency operations or long wars.
Pakistan has its own national interests for keeping Afghanistan under its influence, by whatever means works for that national interest. And their long history with Islamic terror groups (many of which they originated and support) is not going to be abandoned because others want a tranquil Afghanistan.
It is going to be bumpy-going for more years.
The Taliban is busy killing folk singers because their demented ideology forbids all music except their cult’s chants. I expect the blood will flow in Afghanistan for years. They have their lists and US lists of tens of thousands of targets they will exterminate. It is a requirement of their cult. Nothing will change that except when it happens to them.
ISIS may be worse, by some slight degree, but they are birds of a feather and psychopathic butchers of the same cloth.
L
“ISIS may be worse, by some slight degree, but they are birds of a feather and psychopathic butchers of the same cloth”
A complete lie. There’s nothing that they share in common.
In fact it’s exactly what the robots of the CIA and zioinist mouthpieces repeat verbatim. Did you say you’ve spoken to some. Well you must have got on like a house on fire.
Stop the personal attacks. Mod.
I think, Alfred, your logic is the more reasonable. US/UK/Israel power and dominance is on the wain, has been, slowly, over decades. As China/Russian/ Iranian influence increases and they begin to assist in the restructering and rebuilding of Afghanistan, the CIA’s opium “golden goose” will stop laying, the drug flights into the Baghdad airport will cease and the funding for ISIS et al will dry up. The “agent Provocateur’s” within the country will be, similarily, starved of funding and worldwide, the dollar’s strength and impregnability will be breached on several fronts leading to an American shrinkage and consolidation….perhaps to the American landmass alone.
Mr. Larchmonter:
“the CIA will regroup, retrain, rearm and bankroll their own insurgency…” is said in the belief that the CIA is omnipotent, and a clandestine force virtually impossible to expunge. I don’t believe this is the case. The Taliban are experienced insurgence fighters and major Asian powers, including China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India, are monitoring Afghanistan closely. China wants to build pipelines and other major infrastructure there that will require stability which means no counterinsurgence attacks by CIA, ISI-k or ethnic, religious or warlord group. Without weapons supply or air cover, how long will CIA commandos survive?
I see no reason why you say “it is unlikely to be Afghanistan will ever be in peaceful development..” Obviously China cannot build infrastructure is there is no peace so it is likely that China and other neighbors willl keep the peace.
Your opinion s are undoubtedly what the neo-cons in State, Pentagon and Intelligence might wish to be true, but, in fact, they just lost the war.
My opinion is not a policy I advocate. I am giving a comment based on many decades of observation and self-education, including meetings with several famous ex-CIA officers, special operators and subjects who were on the brunt end of CIA machinations in Latin America.
The CIA has been around since 1947, heir to the OSS, deeply educated and acculturated on all populated continents, with the organizational flexibility to morph into whatever shape they need for the task they create or respond to by request of the Executive Branch or ally.
They, I suggest, are already in action with the Resistance in the Panjshir Valley, probably in possession of some of the weapons systems “left behind”. And if you have been watching Fox News, hundreds of SOF vets are already in action inside Kabul and the Valley helping people move out of trouble and getting an armed resistance further organized. This included “civilian” air operations removing and moving many hundreds of people.
The CIA officially left Kabul seven weeks ago. That gave them plenty of time to establish new Station Base and other operational bases. I heard one ex-officer speak of CIA airfields, likely airstrips only. They will have their own ratlines for supply of men and material. They will be getting airdrops of money (one million fits in a specific size rubber container), if they didn’t grab a big share of the money the former President tried to escape with. (160+ million USD).
Never underestimate the CIA. They take down governments, assassinate national leaders, pour fuel on civil hotspots and turn them into infernos, and compromise US government officials like it is a Pokeman game.
Every sin, fault and vice of mankind is part of their tradecraft. They have no limitations in law. They operate by end results. “By whatever means necessary ” is their guiding maxim.
I don’t know any nation where they don’t have operations of some sort. They are inside China, Iran, Russia, you name it. They are true scouts.
L
That revealed more about yourself than anything else. You probably turned the other way whenever any US bomb, soldier or trained militia rampaged over the last twenty years in Afghanistan to Bury any resistance once and for all. .
Well you must be upset they kicked out the hegemon. Who were you expecting would send them on there merry way?
From what I’m reading Russia, China, Iran are at least better positioned and glad to see the hegemon humiliated and sent packing.
They don’t like our freedom. Duh! We need to teach them values! Bigger duh!
Whether your sat in a western Liberal warmongering state or not, you must at least be asking. Who in these lands will have the will and the courage, the faith to drive out these criminal proxy govts. Well we wait the day for the sake of humanity. The talibs have given the freedom fighters around the globe optimism and a smile. Bravo. Bravo. The Yemenis were inspired and achieved a major scalp today. They will God willing too get rid of their aggressor client of the West. Their faith will render them victorious.
And finally. When you want to depress the world even more. Let me rephrase your words.
Don’t underestimate the power of the CIA.
We say.
Don’t overestimate the power of the CIA.
Have faith.
Abdullah,
Why can’t you argue without attacking me?
First, your statements regarding me are ignorant.
Second, your naivete is precious in its infantilism. Taliban as Freedom Fighters. Remarkable analysis.
I’ll leave it there. You are trolling for attention, weak as it is your want.
I’m not actually attacking you personally if you read my points closer.
Taliban freedom fighters? They were born there you know. And most certainly have freed their land from a murderous illegal invasion.
I have not seen a recent analysis but in 2007 in Helmand, most of the TB foot soldiers we faced were Waziris, as reported to us by the locals.”Why are the Pakistanis doing this to us?” was not an uncommon question. Whilst there were of course plenty of Afghans in the TB, the question is not as clear cut as you make out.
And as to whether the TB are ‘Freedom Fighters’, maybe you should tell that to the female teachers who ran classes for girls in secret, in constant fear of discovery, last time the TB were in charge. I doubt they are celebrating their freedom.
L
I may have slightly over reacted. But I had to chuckle when you suggest why don’t you argue without attacking me. Then attack me at the same time with accusations too.
Granted I may have remarked inappropriately.
To be honest the overall balance of comments over the many articles of late on this subject do not reflect your views. I consider that a better reflection overall than anything I might add.
Please close down this personal conversation. Thx. Mod.
I do not presume to speak for Larchmonter 445, but it sounds to me as though he is saying what many also in the USA,, very unhappy with the record and the existence of the CIA, have been forced to conclude.
Many have tried to curb the CIA in various ways. Senator Frank Church was one.
JFK went so far as to say he intended to smash the CIA into a thousand pieces.
So far it seems they have all failed. The CIA is a protean organization that so far has shape-shifted and evaded any consequences for its massive mistakes,and to ignore criticism from many quarters of the domestic polity of its financial, strategic, and moral burden on the nation not to mention the its unspeakable record of destruction of other nations.
Perhaps a decisive defeat or neutralization of the CIA in Afghanistan will mean the hacking off of a major tentacle that damages the whole entity. This is certainly to be hoped for. That the Afghanistan debacle will deliver a body blow to the CIA, at least in Afg itself. That a combo of local and international actors can practice on CIA cells and proxies the same “counterinsurgency” measures introduced by the CIA itself and eradicate it at least in one country.
OTOH if history is any indication, one might also predict that the CIA will find ways to regrow that Afghan tentacle and continue as the Giant Squid making use of proxies to push more countries and their local “insurgents” into its craw.
“Why can’t you argue without attacking me?”
From what I’m reading he’s not attacking you at all. I think his points are well thought out & needed saying. He’s also Not in my opinion trolling for attention.
I always read your comments & in the main I agree but you’re not spot on all the time for sure.
Dear Abdullah,
I think your emotions may have taken over for a wee moment. It is far more likely that Larch was on the other side, opposing the CIA rather than defending them.
I’m only a simple retired policeman, but the work I’ve done in retirement has opened a completely new understanding of what and how our American ‘friends’ operate, especially in Australia, and in opposing these creatures, I have met a couple and spoken to one or two of them, and a few more from the Australian side who were and still are with them.
These ‘Intel’ people are no more intelligent than you or I, and, I think perhaps, more stupid than you or I, and once you comprehend them, and learn their methods, you too will come to that conclusion.
For those CIA ‘friends’ left behind in Afghanistan, many will be rounded up by the proper authorities, and those that remain will have to, for survival, go deep undercover and remain passive. There will also be survivors of the JSOC attacks, friends, family and relatives who will now also be able to pass on information that will be listened to as well, and perhaps the Taliban may be able to turn some of those they capture, much the same as the Germans did back in the 1940’s. The Russians never did that, they simply shot any they suspected.
It is a very old game, but one also played by Russia and the Chinese for centuries, and they too have their ‘experts’ in this very old game. Those left behind in Afghanistan will soon also discover this, and may I also consider that with their own history, the Afghans will know how to identify and remove their enemy.
So have peace and serenity within yourself,
@Andrew
I recon that what Larchmonter claims here is entirely possible, but I feel that he overestimates the capabilities of the CIA with a diminished presence in Afghanistan and with an opposition outfit holding power there.
What I understood with how Russians and the Chinese behaved when the Taliban took over Kabul, is that they’ve had years of close contacts with the Taliban possibly through intelligence networks. It’s highly possible that spies of these countries are operating now in Afghanistan looking for those who’d pose threats to their security, economic interests.
Besides, let’s not forget Iran’s IRGC which has probably infiltrated the Taliban ranks and are hinting down extremist elements from within as reported on this blog a few days ago.
Therefore, it’s possible that the CIA and the MI6 now working underground to destabilize the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, but there are opposition entities who are keeping a close eye on them
Fine pseudonym, mister Man With No Name! I like it, ’cause’:
We also have “A Land With No Name” which only cals itself the united states of (north) America.
And of course the song “A Horse With No Name”.
Keep on using it!
With my admiration,
Tollef Ås (Oslo)
former overlander thru Afghanistân.
And also “overlanding” thru Faysabad (Badakhshan) and the Wakhan corridor en route to Tashkurgan (China).
Thanks Andrew. I appreciate your post.
My pleasure mate!
Interesting post.
I suggest everyone for a bit of fun read Rudyard Kipling’s “Kim.” Now of course it is British empire propaganda at its highest but it is ever so revealing because it could be rewritten today (or maybe a year ago) by replacing UK with USA. There were Tibetan monks traveling with the British child spy, Russian spies, Bengali spies, Pashtun war lords and generally a complex spy battle between UK, Russia, China, Pakistan/India.
Kipling called it “the great game” and essentially not much has changed.
Or should i say that was last year. Now it may be that Afghanistan will emerge as a nation in its own right, no longer a football in the power struggles of great nations. This remains to be seen.
Yes, but just how effective is the C.I.A. not very in my book, for about the only thing that they ever got right was our entrance into Afghanistan when the Russians were in there, they didn’t even know that Russia was coming apart but yet a young aid to a U.S. congressman told them that it was, how come he knew but yet a billion/billions dollar spy organization lacked even a clue of it. I think you give the C.I.A. way to much credit in my book as a spy organization, for many of their programs came back to create more harm to the U.S. then what they got out of them Nam and Iraq is more than proof of that with their torture prisons.
The CIA appears to be extremely effective in furthering the interests of the CIA and its strategic allies. With the rampant expansion of ‘private armies’, ‘unofficial militias’ etc etc, the aims and objectives of the CIA (get rich through fomenting conflict, chaos, the inability for decent governments to rule peacefully etc etc) seem to have been achieved extremely well.
The fact that the aims and objectives of the CIA should be linked not to the wealth of organisation members, rather the safety and stability of the US population, does seem to have become forgotten in the 21st century.
Dear Mr. Larchmonter,
I am glad to have met you, and you are as I had suspected. You will not acknowledge that you have been defeated”, but, in fact, you have been defeated.You may admonish us not to “underestimate the CIA, but in fact you have been defeated. Understandably no empire can admit defeat because that may encourage other subjects to revolt, and, if enough do so, especially if they are encouraged and fortified by opposing major powers, the empire could be toppled. You may have assets in Iran, Russia, China and others, but you have lost Afghanistan and your assets in China, Russia and Iran can’t do a thing about it. Your bestial violence, your “ends justify the means”, your infinite supply of arms and bribe money, your infinite wealth of opium supply, your iron will, has been defeated in Afghanistan. It will be defeated in Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Lebanon, Nicaragua, and in all places where you have “operations”.
Lief Johnson,
I am guessing you are new around here. Certainly, you are totally ignorant of my politics, beliefs, dispositions or my quite extensive writings.
Thus, you have a lot to learn and you should not introduce yourself with a brick in your hand.
Just a hint to how far off the mark your excessive remarks are concerning me, I named my first son Daniel after Daniel Ellsberg.
Ignorance is bliss, so I expect your are in nirvana when on the attack.
Ellsberg? Seriously? Poor kid. In 1971, Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers, shifting blame for the increasingly unpopular Vietnam War from the CIA to the military, while distracting public attention from investigations of the CIA’s Phoenix Program and the CIA’s drug smuggling. And you think he was one of the good guys?
Concordo plenamente. As vezes ser demasiado realista incomoda e você tem plena razão.
Yandex translation. Mod:
I fully agree. Sometimes being too realistic bothers you and you are absolutely right.
@Larchmonter
Did I understand that after regrouping and building simple airstrips somewhere, CIA will do better what they didn’t when they had proper airports and bases in Afghanistan? Not to forget billions of $$$ from opium.
What went wrong then or, more important, what will change for the better in the future?
Blackring,
One major theme many Russian, Chinese and Western analysts have addressed about the fall of Kabul and the take over by the Taliban is the US might have done so with the purpose of creating chaos for Russia and China at the nexus of BRI development.
If so, then all the CIA needs to do is keep churning the cauldron of chaos. Doesn’t take much.
You can assume that the US/UK are not really “out of Afghanistan”. Or you can believe that the Taliban defeated the West.
I know that the Taliban defeated no one. They didn’t even defeat the Afghan National Army.
The US left and left in such a way as to destroy the Afghan National Army capacity to fight.
The corollary of those facts, as I see them, is the US did not defeat the Taliban.
What has been going on is the geopolitical need for the US to hold a base in South Asia, in order to obstruct BRI, to contain China and to destabilize the Central Asia Stans and pose a threat to Russia.
The US/NATO campaign morphed in recent years from war on terror to counter-insurgency.
In their ineptitude, they did not sell the campaign to Congress and the People that the war had changed.
So, they had no public support. Wasting 2 Trillion Dollars did not help their public relations cause.
Now, they are “out”, but I tend to believe that the CIA will still operate there, as will Mi6 (as the Saker indicated in his most recent piece).
The US lost something bigger than the notion that they lost the so-called war. The US lost its global image as unipolar hegemon, the singular SuperPower, invincible.
Biden’s disastrous withdrawal stressed the corrupt and incompetent military and State Dept. to the point where they created a disaster that will be the symbol of the war’s ending.
Recall this as an example of victory, the end of war, and reality: In 2017, Russia and the US declared the defeat of ISIS and the end of the war on terror in Syria. Today, war goes on in all four corners of Syria. In Idlib, in Kurd turf and the tribal oil fields, in Deir ez Zor down to al Kamal, across near al Tanf and over to Deraa and the Jordon border.
Who won the war? Is it over? This is 4 years since victory.
The central geoposition of Afghanistan makes it perfect location for Intel gathering, foment, obstruction, and weapons testing. That’s a destiny Afghanistan cannot escape.
The lesson of the war: don’t try to tame Afghanistan. Just keep it churned.
Larchmonter445,
Yes, I agree. The Taliban did not defeat anyone. They got in there by default. But, they are now there – facts on the ground.
I am a tad, just a sliver more bullish on The Taliban than you, but for reasons. There is a new generation just about grown-up. The oldies are still there but have been schooled in other countries now for 20 years. The new ones have some schooling. Then China is a persistent taskmaster that takes no guff. You either fulfill the agreement or they pull the funding and hit you in the face on the way out, if you screwed up for no reason. They also divide things up in small attainable objectives and reaching objective one, will mean continuance. For them, it is hard 0 or 1. We do it together, or we, the Chinese do it but it will be done. I put more faith in China’s leadership and ability and belief in Belt and Road here on the operational country management side, but more faith in Russia’s leadership on the negotiation and diplomatic side. China said .. no extremists must be coddled, and they mean it – and they will use funding as a fierce cudgel to get a working country. Their honor is on the line here as they are the ‘inheritors’ if you like. Both China and Russia built countries from the ground up.
So, Afghanistan has the best help that this earth of ours can offer. And there is my sliver of hope. Whether the Taliban will welcome that help is the question. As I said, just a sliver. CIA and MI6 are scourges and forces onto themselves. Terrorists yes?
dear amarynth dear :) slight correction here… em… okie… more fine tuning here :) CCP china and rus (thus by extention or by forced iran) has never said to work w talib. china said they would observed and work w a talib-led Coalition government, (ket word – led) meaning as talib risk their man and won the war, as far as perception and media anyway, they also appears to be the majority ‘army’ faction in afghan, they hv the biggest support base w regular afghan, the new afghan can easier to be rebuild upon that, abit like Mao, political force out of guns. also, if my memory does not fail me again, VVP has said, in public that, rus will/are in the background for all security stuff no funny business aside of ‘internal’ afghan stuff. last, after the dealdine for final 4ever departure, i expect any foreign agents of 3 letters, whether by double identity of work/citizen, would likely be marked and turn into rivers of blood and as you already know, no such news will ever be on Tvee pos, this time, not even on, alt-internet. too many of them. nameless. who cares about the body then?! there is alot at stake here, dear, some you highlighted, many more, projects into the next hundreds of years, of which obviously no amerikan is capable of such mind stuff, and great chances they wont be on the map soon enough to even matters. i mean can you imagine amerikan still exist in a hundred years time? 50? 20? 10? 5? 3? 2? 1? 6mth? you see, chi and rus knows direct the experience of a death of a country, but not the supremacis and exceptionalist, who smoke some self-prescribed sh!t and think they are still in 1920? 30? kinda powerful. recently in the tour to sg then viet, viet official just arbitarily redacted the whole speech of kh when she gone stupid on attacking china, no such news were ever reported in the west. imagine, viet redeact and took out everything a usa vp said and nullify that! dangerous times, dear!!! the under current is deep and swrilling like a sucking black hole! take super extra care there, dear!
Thank you for comprehensive and reasonable answer. It fits well with my vision of US as country that is losing economic strength to support expensive military adventures. UK is still vehemently on the war path, mainly because US did all the heavy lifting.
Here comes the point where I disagree with you. Your analysis would be absolutely right 10 or so years ago. Today, west is in decline from internal conflicts. Military is NOT reason for decline, just the oposite. It is the most profitable export product as it provides almost free resources for West. They spent 2 trillions for war, but earned 2 trillions from opium. Fair trade :)
Anyway, west is declining, even with unfair advantages it posess. What is the reason is not important. Decline affects all, without exception. Army, inteligence, science. All. The more sofisticated things are – harder they fall. In the same time, oponents are gaining strength, fast.
Stalemate in Syria is not success for the west. Stalemate afects both players. Russia still invest much less than US. In current economic climate, war of attrition is the worst strategy possible. Blitzkrieg or total retreat are both better solutions. Adding one more front in war of attrition is double stupid. Triple, if we count Ukraine. At present state of involvement in Afghanistan, Russia and China can afford endless tug of war with UK/US. And they know it. Especialy, having free support of local population while UK/US must pay proxies, dearly. With stunts like using $16m ‘mother of all bombs’ to kill 36 militants ($450,000 each), it is not suprising why host country is bankrupt.
I do not question sincerity of your western contacts, just bear in mind: they are experts from bygone era, and as all bygones they are sentimentaly biased. They simply are not capable to swallow ugly truths of 21st century.
But, you are right, CIA and friends will do what they always do, until, one day, payment stops. I highly doubt they share same determination with Talibs. More like: “By whatever means necessary – but not for free”
So, no. It won’t be “business as usual”. Not anymore.
I will stop here, to thank you again for inspiring writings. Enjoy this “wonderfull” times for analysts.
@Larchmonter445,
I think some of you are getting carried away by emotions here. So, let’s try to understand the facts.
You mention that it’s part of an strategy that US left Afghanistan the way it has. Then isn’t it a defeat for them as that they could not achieve what they wanted to without changing their strategy. BTW, US came to Afghanistan and not the other way round.
Now, with this recent change, at least there are opportunities for others to step in(not to occupy) to make things better, though it won’t be easy in any case. So, isn’t it a positive development?
Finally, it’s up to the people of Afghanistan to decide who are freedom fighters and who aren’t, isn’t it!
does anyone know why the us is building a huge addition to its embassy in lebanon? apparently they are spending billions. certainly the axis of evil has tried very hard to starve the population into submission. possibly a new base to survey eurasia, plug the bri, & protect israel?
Larchmonter445
“The central geoposition of Afghanistan makes it perfect location for Intel gathering, foment, obstruction, and weapons testing. That’s a destiny Afghanistan cannot escape.”
Agree !
Instead of holding Afghanistan and performing costly and tedious counter-insurgency operations the United States simply handed over the territory to the Taliban along with its well constructed army (ANA) which was provided with ample arms and ammunition –
Will Brown (@_Will_Brown) Tweeted: A mind-blowing graphic in today’s Times on what $85bn worth of lost equipment means in practice for the Taliban: https://t.co/GDcuNQbb6P https://twitter.com/_Will_Brown/status/1431912098590871553?s=20
Now they can perform their destabilization programs at will, without being burdened by woke welfare costly activities or even any responsibility for the country. When the UK never truly left Afghanistan for the past sesquicentenary why would one expect the United States to leave when their objectives would now be handily fulfilled through ‘other’ means.
Hang-on Blackring,
What happened to the CIA chief in Afghanistan in about February last year after their attack on Iran? Oh, yes, the CIA chap got on a plane in Afghanistan on some little airstrip, and as it took off, something hit it.
I would assume then that Iran was not only aware of who and what, but were also capable of doing something about it.
A simple question is this; just how much more info do the Iranians, Russians and Chinese have about the CIA in Afghanistan?
To Andrew S MacGregor
“just how much more info do the Iranians, Russians and Chinese have about the CIA in Afghanistan?”
Good question Andrew! My guess would be – lots and lots! Plus more! As Pepe said – Taliban, unexpectedly(?), suddenly(?) has rather good intel in Kabul. I wonder how that happened? : )
We must not forget that Russia (and I expect, also China) has been working with Talibs for, at least, the last 7 years..
Many comments under this piece today are intelligent, researched and knowledgeable – great. But I believe we should not rush with assessments of the situation right now as it is rather chaotic and unpredictable at this moment. We need to wait for things to settle down a bit, when clearer picture will, hopefully, start to emerge. But I do tend to agree with these comments that highlight the simple fact that there are now TWO Major Global Players on the scene, against rather spent and fast breaking apart Hegemon. CIA will not be allowed to fester there for much longer. Same goes for Syria.
“A simple question is this; just how much more info do the Iranians, Russians and Chinese have about the CIA in Afghanistan?”
After interrogating translators and stuff that was left behind, they know more then Americans themselves.
(If you want to know everything about company, you do not ask CEO. You ask his driver.)
There is an interesting extended essay/review, by Charles Glass, in the current London Review of Books of
The Quiet Americans: Four CIA Spies at the Dawn of the Cold War – A Tragedy in Three Acts
by Scott Anderson.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n16/charles-glass/hush-hush-boom-boom
It appears to be behind a paywall.
The final grafs:
“In 2011, as Obama was considering what action to take in Syria, some of his advisers urged him to support the rebels. Before making up his mind, Obama commissioned a report on the history of US covert operations. Robert Malley, then Obama’s Middle East adviser and now President Biden’s negotiator with Iran, read the CIA’s classified report. It was, he told me in 2019, a litany of failure. ‘I think there were one or two, out of I don’t know how many tens of cases, where you could, at a limit, say that there was a success by working through opposition proxies.’ The vast majority of the CIA’s secret wars had backfired, from Albania in the late 1940s through Angola in the 1980s to Afghanistan in the 1990s. Despite this, Obama ordered the CIA to arm and instruct militants in Turkey and Jordan under a programme that permits such activities in defence of American national security. The outcome was both predictable and tragic: the insurgents failed to overthrow Assad and Islamic State emerged.
Anderson makes the case that the CIA’s obsession with covert operations, which when successful (as in Iran and Guatemala) garnered both kudos and bigger budgets, coincided with the neglect of intelligence-gathering. The CIA failed to foresee the Soviet atom bomb in 1949, North Korea’s invasion of the South in 1950, China’s crossing of the Yalu River later that year, the British-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt in 1956, popular support in Cuba for Fidel Castro on the eve of the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, the crushing of the Prague Spring by Soviet tanks in 1968, Khomeini’s rise to power in Iran, Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and Saddam Hussein’s conquest of Kuwait in 1990. This is not to mention the 9/11 attacks, which had the perverse effect of revitalising the CIA while it was floundering without a credible enemy after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Many of those involved in the founding of the CIA rued what they had done. ‘Now, as nearly as I can make out, those fellows in the CIA don’t report on wars and the like,’ Truman said, ‘they go out and make their own, and there’s nobody to keep track of what they’re up to. They spend billions of dollars on stirring up trouble so they’ll have something to report on.’ Scores of former agents have exposed CIA crimes and defeats in books, films and articles. In the wake of American humiliation in Vietnam and the Watergate scandal, Senate and House investigations documented CIA malfeasance at home and overseas that involved both violations of federal law and the agency’s own charter. Yet no matter how outlandish its schemes and plots, the CIA goes on and on and on, just like Fleming’s 007 franchise.”
Dear Anonymous,
Read the article and it mentions Edward Lansdale who played his part in the assassination of JFK, with his (the first) team at Dallas. Bush was in charge of the second team of Harvey and Angleton’s secondment from MI6
“The CIA has been around since 1947, heir to the OSS, deeply educated and acculturated on all populated continents, with the organizational flexibility to morph into whatever shape they need for the task they create or respond to by request of the Executive Branch or ally.”
The CIA is just another psychopathic organisation that has an almost ulimited budget. No amount of meetings in Washington are going to change their logistical problems. No air cover. Just imagine. Their minions will be eliminated one by one. A bullet to the head is just as effective as a drone strike – and without “collateral damage”
A long while ago, I read the obituary of a KGB/FSB functionary in Moscow. This guy was a genius at working out who at each US embassy was the head of their CIA and his assistants. All he did was to study their lifestyle – they are paid so much more than genuine diplomats. They are so stupid that they could not help flouting their wealth – by driving smarter cars and having prettier mistresses. LOL
I have worked for a number of US multinationals – Raytheon, Bank of American, Dun & Bradstreet – and they are all incapable of adapting to the local environment. They try to impose their “values” on alien peoples with thousands of years of history. Their 3-letter outfits are just the same IMHO.
One thing is certain. As soon as the Taliban start killing those on the list of employees of the CIA, the media in the West will be moaning about the “instability” and unpredictability of the Taliban.
What to say about Kamala Harris praising John McCain to the Vietnamese because ‘he was a hero who loved his country’ and “we honor his sacrifice in Vietnam” (i.e. bombing the hell out of the Viets)!?!
@Anonymous. What to say about Kamala Harris praising John McCain to the Vietnamese?
It fits the idea that she is a peacenik who has infiltrated the U$ regime and is busy clipping the wings of the warhawks by ruining any chance of a U$ alliance with Vietnam against China. The hawks cannot pierce her disguise because she talks just like they do, only very cleverly makes their unrepentent aggressiveness sound alarming to the country she is trying to win over.
“As soon as the Taliban start killing those on the list of employees of the CIA, the media in the West will be moaning about the “instability” and unpredictability of the Taliban.”
And if they do not, MSM will run stories how Talibs took the bribe to let traitors go.
don’t you mean the British in Burma and Malaysia?
the Philippines has been an American playground since before WW2,
Thanks for the correction. Definitely I was thinking Malaysian Emergency and British. Should have read it a second time before posting the comment.
Appreciate your catch. Thanks.
I have this archived in my files: https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/malayan-emergency
A nice history of the counterinsurgency.
Dear Larch,
You did have me worried in regard to that ‘error’ on the Philippines, and I had a friend who served at Butterworth during the ‘Emergency’. But Malaysia was not the only bit of ‘counterinsurgency’, there was Kenya as well with Major Frank Kitson, who also advised the Americans early in the Vietnam war
The British counterinsurgency model was developed in Malaysia. Not the Philippines. The architect Sir Frank Kitson wrote a technical handbook “Low Intensity Operations” about how it was done. Step one is to develop is sophisticated genuine and respectful understanding of the beliefs and aspirations of your enemy. That’s the book they tore up in favour of our god is bigger than your god.
“But what’s certain is that a new government will simply not allow a militia wasteland scenario similar to Libya.” —– Well said that man. My thinking is along with closing the borders, “with a little help from my friends”, The Taliban will be closing the skies; for obvious reasons. Just a thought. As is.
Closing the skies? With what technology? All they have available is to declare a ADIZ and no way to enforce it.
They can close their airports, which would prevent civilian air traffic.
They have a government in Kabul, but Afghanistan’s strength is it is tribal, very regional to those tribes. That is also its weakness.
Establishing an extreme religious ideology atop that tribal reality does not establish Afghanistan as a sovereign nation able to fend for itself among other nations. It is much like Ukraine. Very weak at the center, very chaotic in its strongest regions. Unable to walk its own walk. Virtually leaderless, but carrying a heavy ideology.
I wonder what happened to the “Stinger” missiles which were so ubiquitous and frequently reported in an earlier age, which were copied in Pakistan and deployed against the Americans?
Shelf life. All munitions and many electronic weapons systems have a shelf life.
Stingers from back in the eighties would be inoperable without major remanufacturing.
Do you have a source for the info about Pakistan “copying” the Stinger and that it was deployed against Americans?
No i do not have a source but i do remember that it was a topic much reported in the UK media many decades ago. Pakistanis seemed pretty good at copying the AK-47, the Claymore mines and the Stinger missiles and improving them…and that Stingers that had been used against the Russians were then used against the Americans…then nothing more was mentioned about the Stingers. Turkey officially produced some in the 1980s. i have no doubt that modern aircraft today have better defensive measures against such weapons systems (the Stinger is obsolete from 2023) but then missile technology has surely also moved on and can (maybe) prevent / paralyse any attempt at air superiority….
Good summary here about the Americans desperate to buy back the Stingers with many ending up in the “wrong” hands but – indeed – no mention of any recorded American losses due to ‘their own’ Stingers >
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger
I read interesting perspective that the recently [coordinated] Russian-Uzbek and Chinese drills at their respective borders with Afghanistan served to create a no fly zone.
Iran has similar capabilities.
▪︎Afghanistan is a landlocked country; resupply of shadow armies has to come from the air or Pakistan.
▪︎Afghanistan is observer in SCO and had shuttle-diplomacies with those three powers.
▪︎All can deduce the next steps of a rebooted Great Game and what countering moves must be made
▪︎Presidents Putin & Xi publicized their most recent video conference where they gave notice of intent to use SCO as primary vehicle for stabilizing Afghan.
My question L445, is even if Pakistan doesn’t play ball, against it’s own better interests, what do you think of the potential of the 3 Eurasian powers to seal the air and deny shadow armies breathing space. On this may hinge the future of southern BRI and Eurasian connectivity.
@A.H.H.
Russia is not likely to put S-300/S400 air defenses into Afghanistan.
The Taliban, if they don’t have a more flexible policy with other countries will not just be treated as one of the gang of buddies in the SCO. They have to become very realistic and practical. Quite a stretch from what we see in action of late. Their sweet words mean nothing.
Pakistan is the key to things on the ground and things in the air. The US has to fly through a narrow flight corridor over Pakistan to enter Afghan air space. So, even though the ISI sponsors the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and ISIS-K, they allow Reaper drones to hit targets in Afghanistan. Pakistan duality.
Putting air power into the Afghan skies to patrol it is risky. That is why the US had eight bases.
With no bases, search and rescue becomes as dangerous as in Syria or Libya.
We have yet to see the impact of the Taliban hiring the Turks to run the Kabul airport. Will that be civilian management or military? If it is military Turks, won’t they bring some of their aircraft to secure their own units?
I don’t see Iran, China and Russia getting inside Afghanistan at this very early stage. Maybe in 12-18 months they would do some SCO work if the new government faced terrorists and couldn’t handle it themselves.
CPEC and the North-South Corridor definitely require the cessation of hostilities. ISIS-K and AQ factions are being paid to disrupt them.
The Pakistan Military has to secure the CPEC project. The Chinese won’t put the PLA into Pakistan to do that security work. I imagine Russia feels the same about not putting its military into Afghanistan to secure the N-S Corridor.
What could change everything quickly is the Taliban. Are they capable of leaving the 6th century and thinking like a 21st Century third world nation that has opportunity to modernize?
Then, cooperation in the SCO, Russia in the air, Pakistan and China showing how security can work, and progress would replace chaos.
The transition of the Taliban would help change Pakistan’s duality.
They need to show signs soon. There are 10,000 ISIS inside Afghanistan, several thousand more toying around Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and if Idlib falls, 30-50,000 more head choppers looking for a new home, 8000 of them Uyghurs who will surely head for Xinjiang and get stuck in Afghanistan. Thus, Afghanistan has a brief period to get things right, or it will be a conflict zone for another decade or more.
I meant the efficacy of air defence (AD) complexes surrounding Afghan being projected into it via its mostly SCO neighbors. As s300s/s400s can cover Israel without being on its territory. Key difference though Afghanistan is 30x bigger and has among tallest mountains on earth, but most of it is surrounded by SCO members. Perhaps sufficient to cover the northern territories of Northern Alliance, which will be main base of shadow armies.
This would be in coordination with CSTO/Chinese SOFs and local Taliban coalition members, they could achieve a reverse hybrid war (a united resistance defence) on the shadow armies, similar to what’s happened in Syria.
Alistair Crooke says the recent AD coordination by Chinese/Russian wargames was a game changer – but this is beyond my competence, the physics of AD.
And by implication shaped the Empire withdrawal? Bagram is only 230 km / 145 mi from the Tajik/Uzbek border.
See at the end of his article:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/08/23/strategic-apocalypse-afghanistan-seismic-shift-years-in-making/
2 related issues:
▪︎ Hopeful signs regarding Taliban 2.0:
The respected Indian Ambassador MK Badhrakumar (he was invited to the Valdai Club a few years ago as a long term friend of Russia and proponent of Eurasian sovereignty) thinks they have left the extremist internationale (EI) fold after 40 years of foreign directed wars and are no longer willing to be pawns:
https://twitter.com/BhadraPunchline/status/1429777144922529795?s=20
▪︎ Could JFK’s plan to shatter the CIA into 1,000 pieces be in motion? Via Yalta 2 for example, with one faction selling them out? CIA opponents know it will never deviate from plan and change its raison d’être, just like its proxies, so maybe a meat grinder has been prepared for its operatives and the EI, thanks in part to the whirling Sultan of Swing. This may explain his taking over the destination of Daesh Airlines. And Pepe reports on his VK that a proper FUBAR is currently in motion at the swamp of DC. The conspiracies and mutual betrayals are stacked like Matryoshka dolls! This theory would solve the Syrian mercs issue, in part by tricking ETIM to near its Xinjiang target, end Chaos Inc. and get on with the BRI. We can hope.
PS – any current analysis from Ishchenko on russian web? Stalker Zone has stopped translating him. I always appreciate his big picture.
The Taliban doesn’t have the technology to close the skies to high altitude stuff, and I don’t think Russia, China or Iran will be providing that in the immediate future for a couple of reasons.
However, they did come into possession of over 100 MANPADS after the Afghan Army disintegrated, and we’re in possession of some Stinger type anti-air defenses as far back as 2019, taking down four helicopters and a CIA Intel plane.
This will give them some protection against drones, and make the USA think twice about using c-130 type ground attack planes or importing Jihadists via helicopter.
> The Taliban will be closing the skies; for obvious reasons.
No need. All airlines are avoiding it lately. Lookup some flights on flightradar24. like say MAA-CDG on Saturday. They fly over the sea and over SA and IL.
Why is the Taliban allowing Turkey (and Qatar), via a private security firm, to provide future security at Kabul airport? Madness, surely, in view of both countries treacherous and duplicitous history in Syria.
https://thecradle.co/Article/news/1448
After reading this mindbogling amount of information man must ask himself: all that technological supremacy, all the money in the world, all those dronekillings and interogations…led to what? Runing from the group of religious students armed with light weapons. Something does not add up.
Maybe US millitary is fed up with being pushover sidekick that jumps at the whims of CIA? For less money, more footwork and life in the tent. Under command of transgender drill sergeants.
Just kidding. Who cares for grunts. I am trying to paint the picture where regular army is pushed aside by inteligence, private contractors, and drones.
Usualy, they are called only to clean the mess after spooks.
The point is: more money for hightech toys always means less for men on the groud. On highest level, maybe, someone said “Enough is enough”, and pulled the plug.
And now, when Big sugar-daddy is gone, spooks griefs just like discarded psycho-bitch mistress. Anger, Denial and now Bargaining in quick succesion.
Guesswork, but surely looks that way.
I love the way Pepe writes- thank you Mr. Escobar.
His writing is Like a metaphor, if one can not figure out the end, end, end, ( keep going ) game, a new “variant” will appear disguised (with a new paper bag over its head) and… wait for it, ….wait for it, … “surprise!”
Indeed, the Grand Chessgame never ends, unlike a real chess board battle, the global kaleidoscope of dis-united “nations” remains hostage to the collective individual condition.
Dear isw,
Speaking of chess, back in 2001, my friend David Barton of Collarenebri made an error in which we lost a pawn. However we were than able to take a rook, in that we learnt who the opposition in Perth was, and ultimately were able to reveal to Australia who ran the Port Arthur massacre.
Then in 2003, we met Eddie Eye in Launceston, who was CIA, and I still have the mental scar of what he gave me, another pawn, but from that we were able to identify and call out the ASIO operation called the Inverell Forum, and the number of ASIO agents involved with the organisation, which I considered to be a bishop.
It is in this manner that the new government in Afghanistan will be able to identify and nullify many of those the CIA has left behind in Afghanistan.
Oops! Sorry, but that name was Eddie Ey whose address was at the time, ’19 cedar top lane, front royal va 22630. Eddie at that time was courting a niece of Wendy Scurr.
Chinese play Weiqi/Go.
Perhaps, but the Chinese also play a game called “Chinese Chess” which my eldest son Angus studied as a teenager. There are competitions of ‘Chinese Chess’ played around the world with two levels, one for the Chinese and the second for non-Chinese. Angus represented Australia as a non-Chinese twice, once in France, and then later in China where he took on a Chinese master of the game and won.
Definitely in the case of Afghanistan they played Go.
Bloody oath they did!! And won!
All this, while at home the USA is being torn apart at the seams by internal conflicts.
A house divided cannot stand. The fact that DOS, DOD, CIA, and the White House are pulling in different directions defines division. No doubt there are other forces at work with other agendas as well.
Interesting as affairs in Afghanistan no doubt are, they are but one of a greater series of events, and the ability of the USA players to enact their plans there will inexorably decline as the homeland descends into chaos. When that chaos relents it is doubtful that there will be a “United” state of America left to fund the sort of international vandalism that is being dicussed here. What there will be is a few seperate entities focused on immediate economic and political survival for a while unbtil the dust settles and the rubble is repurposed.
This, as much as anything, is why Russia and China have been so patiently tolerant of the endless insults, provocations and general diplomatic vandalism the USA and its vassals have been engaging in. They are secure in the knowledge that time and patience are, in this case, the greatest of warriors and that their enemy grows weaker by the day. Better to wait them out than to waste precious blood and treaure removing them from the stage of history.
Wishful thinking? Only time will tell.
Exactly. American sovereignty is on the line. Paradoxes to the right of me, paradoxes to the left.
Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more unto the breach rode the valiant 600, but by that time there were only 250 of them left.
At the end of the day I wonder how many will be left this time?
Combatants or vassals?
Curious observers want to know?
”Woke Westerners, now losing sleep over the ‘loss of civil liberties’ in Afghanistan, may not even be vaguely aware that their NATO-commanded ‘coalition forces’ excelled in preparing their own kill-or-capture lists”
For crying out loud: To woke Westerners, NATO is by far the wokest organization on the planet. It’s firmly committed to LGBTQ++ and, even more testifying to its progressive credentials, anti-authoritarianism. As for NATO’s opponents — the Taliban, Russia, China, and Iran — the less said the better.
Who is next on the empire’s list of disasters?
They seem to have achieved what they wanted but to abandon the cash cow now seems strange. Perhaps the Taliban will vaccinate the population quickly and find all the collaborators while they are at it.
They should know the western game by now !
Was the “local” Afghan Khost army collaborating with Isis (international terrorists) in Syria?! No, but the Turks were, just ask Putin, he personally provided all the evidence to his G8 colleagues a few years back.
This is not a brawl at the Ukrainian or Turkish parliament. 😂
Don’t confuse his (L445) clinical reasoning and precise diction for arrogance or support of Empire.
He hates Empire more all of us combined, if you’ve read his writings for long.
He is occasionally wrong like any other human, or maybe he has better perspective given his very long life and sees a nuance we will soon appreciate.
What an outstanding article! I can’t verify the reams of information on Afghanistan myself, but this article provides an impressive level of information and goes frighteningly close to the real political and military dynamics in Afghanistan. Absolutely admirable! It is almost scary to be informed in such a truly journalistic way.
I must conclude the position of nato has been significantly, if not radically, weakened by the recent turn of events. What is for certain is that nato trying to manage from outside Afghanistan is not the same as managing from inside Afghanistan. Furthermore, it is self-evident that the nature of the threat, the pressure from this region upon IRAN , is now significantly reduced. The story going forward will be how and when the Taliban confronts its domestic opponents.
Arshan
True.
The bad news is Trky is fervently insisting on a Security role at the Airport. It is applying pressure on Qatar and Pak. Even after being told NO on so many occasions. The latest stunt appears to be that if the talibs agree on a joint Qatar Trky deal they will offer recognition in return. This blackmail needs to be rebuffed.
On another note (not unrelated to Trky) Dostum and Noor are trying to make a plea for inclusion in the national reconciliation. Along with those holed up in Panjshir. A collective plea if you like.
This crew esp Dostum is pretty connected to Erdo. He is a pretty ruthless warlord with a string of atrocities he is allegedly responsible for. These remnants of the Northern alliance in particular have served foreign influences and change tune whichever direction the wind is blowing. They played no part in booting out Natoo yet they want their share of the pie. Pretty shameful really.
There’s a lot of arm twisting going on against the talibs. There’s economic strangulation. Political and international demands and threats.
Empire’s proxies lurking within.
Can they hold this internal pressure without compromising too much. That is the initial challenge. Looks precarious to me.
Dostum and Noor fled the country. Erdoğan said ”Turkey may mull over making a deal with the Taliban for running the Kabul airport should the group make a proposal to Turkey”. So far the Taliban doesn’t look like acceding to Erdogan’s wishful thinking and the Turks have evacuated already all their troops from Afghanistan. Ahmad Massoud, said he was open to negotiations with the new rulers of Afghanistan.
The pashtuns who fought during the soviet jihad used to despise the foreign muslim fighters fighting alongside them, because that hurt their pashtun pride and made them look like not being powerful enough to deal with their enemies on their own. This might be one of the reasons why most of the foreign fighters joined TTP when it was formed. If the pashtuns could not tolerate foreigners fighting alongside them, they are certainly not going to tolerate foreigners who fought against them, irrespective of their religion. If people think that turkey being a sunni muslim country (which it isnt, it’s a secular republic) would be welcomed in afghanistan, they are dead wrong. The sultan is going to learn in afghanistan, if he has not learned it yet, that trying to unite muslims under the ottoman identity is going to fail. There is an interview of a taliban spokesperson on haberturk, a turkish news channel. The turkish interviewer asks him about the turkish troops in afghanistan, to which the talib clearly says that they will not tolerate any foreign troops on the afghan soil.
As for a new foreign invasion or a civil war, it is not going to go against the taliban, something which we have all seen in the past few decades.
Arshan: “Furthermore, it is self-evident that the nature of the threat, the pressure from this region upon IRAN , is now significantly reduced.”
As usual, just now, Uncle $cam has received a visit from his favourite nephew, Little Izzie. As usual, Little Izzie has begged Big Uncle to come and beat up Iran. But now, quite unusual, instead of giving Little Izzie a standing ovation while singing Bombombomb Iran, Uncle $cam fell asleep on his chair in front of Little Izzie:
https://www.israelhayom.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/gdfhhh.jpg
Or pretended? “Sorry, didn’t hear you. Must have fallen asleep”.
Thanks Pepe for the article . I also thank Larchmonter445 & Abdullah for a healthy exchange of “opinions”. In my opinion , the argument between the two guys, underline the fundamental challenges off mankind. Man has a habit of focusing on his/her idea of a “Thing” as opposed to the “Thing” itself. Put simply, we leave in Virtual reality.
Larchmonter445 points on CIA (special ops) is true, that’s how the game is played (Efficiently Brutal). CIA is a very effective Tool, no doubt . A tool is a symbol , that reflects on the mentation of the perceiver. Now perception is individual based. For me, CIA represent an Ego (mind + conditioning) that is moving in a loop (trapped). Functionally we are all like, albeit with different inclination. A CIA never solve any problem , in-fact it a refusal to accept reality. A CIA is a measure of the level of brainwashing in society.
Abdullah needs to understand that the Taliban’s Theocratic approach to governance attracts violent opposition. Institutionalizing Religion amounts to a Dogma / Brainwashing .Religion imposed on people via governance is tyranny , & naturally people will revolt. Islamists need to understand that religion is a search for individual salvation (inner work) not a cult. Groups like ISIS (murderous lunatics} rise because of this dogmatic approach to religion.
@Daniel: “Israel needs to understand that the Zionazi’s Theocratic approach to governance attracts violent opposition.”
There, fixed that for you.
Regarding the CIA, here’s a review of Douglas Valentine’s book, The CIA as Organised Crime. Of note are the connection between the CIA and the media and the broader role of its organization as “the secret military wing of the plutocrats”:
“Valentine begins by noting that the CIA is structured like a military unit and that many officers think of themselves as soldiers. This is significant, given that the Agency is officially civilian and ultimately controlled by Congress and the Executive (another myth exploded by Valentine). Structurally, the CIA is an ‘“old boy” network’ (p. 26) above a certain administrative level, whose secrecy obscures the true workings of the Agency to those working below.
Valentine says that other journalists who have successfully penetrated the network, notably Gary Webb (who allegedly committed suicide (p. 27)) and Alfred McCoy (who felt compelled to leave the USA for many years (p. 27)) have been victimised not only by the Agency, but, more alarmingly, by their colleagues in journalism. This is not too surprising, says Valentine, because it is not just ‘that the CIA infiltrated journalism, rather that the CIA is promoting the business of journalism’ (p. 139-40). Valentine cites some interesting cases: At the turn of the Millennium, psychological operations specialists were caught working for National Public Radio and CNN (pp. 102, 421n1); the CIA seeds media stories (e.g., the case of reporter John Barry who told tall tales about Iraq in the lead-up to the 2003 invasion (p. 89)); and the CIA’s information-gathering venture capital, In-Q-Tel (p. 133).
Valentine agrees with and quotes (p. 137) the late, ex-CIA officer and whistleblower, Philip Agee, who half-jokingly said that CIA standards for Capitalism’s Invisible Army. The architecture of deception shaped in part by the CIA via its media influence helps not only to hide its structural (i.e., institutionalised greed) as opposed to specific crimes (e.g., torture), but when certain crimes do come to light, mass media try to shape the public perception of the CIA as working in the greater interests of the American people. In fact, the CIA is working to promote the general business culture of the US elite, or ‘capitalists’ as Valentine calls them. Valentine agrees with interviewer Ryan Dawson, that the CIA is ‘the secret military wing of the plutocrats’ (p. 137).”
Book Review: ‘The CIA as Organised Crime’
http://propagandastudies.ac.uk/resources/reviews-of-of-books-documentaries-and-films/book-review-the-cia-as-organised-crime-by-douglas-valentine/
Finally, to get insight into one layer of background (or underground) of rapid transition in Afghanistan.
Mr. Escobar did it good, and exhaustive, in his manner.
But he did it right now, not yesterday or a month ago, althoug it is obvious he knew all of it long time ago.
All right, some facts need its proper timing to be told.
Luckily (for whom? Talibs?) Mr. Escobar is not the only person (party) who knows all of that. We can just imagine how much know other parties involved in Afghanistan’s mess. And not only know but what they do (and already did).
Maybe some day we will learn something about.
Talking about intel infrastructures, let us not forget a tribal one, which does not need any sophisticated equipment and subtle organisation, and protocols, but only whisper, sharp eye and sensitive ear, and, above all, tribe secrecy and hermeticity (Pashtun code, to be exact), which is extremly effective and literally impenetrable (unnoticeable for non-tribal senses).
It seems that it worked in the playground, no one knows since when and at what extent.
Barefooted highlanders with kalashnikovs defeated the Great Army (with F-22 etc). Also, “sleepers” with slippers outperformed the CIA et al.
Mr. Escobar, we are waiting for ‘to be continued’.
“According to The Intercept [1], the Taliban have captured the US biometric identification system, HIIDE (Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment).
For 20 years, the US occupation forces have developed a biometric file encompassing virtually the entire Afghan population, including iris scans and full digital fingerprints. Everyone entering or leaving Afghanistan, anyone who has ever been arrested or who worked for the United States has been identified.”
This is the reason Biden met with Putin in June and why the Americans fled Afghanistan so fast.
The Taliban will hunt and kill CIA those operatives and “contractors”.
Dear Rogue,
If the Taliban have captured the US biometric identification system, HIIDE (Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment). then that is as important as the Russian Navy capturing the German code 7500 from the SMS Magdeburg in August 1914.
Oh boy, will the Russians and the Chinese have a field day with that!
Let’s cut to the chase. BRI interconnect is dead. CPEC is dead. That’s the deal Taliban signed with US. Everything else is noise.
You may be right but do you have evidence to back it up?
With all eyes focused on Afghanistan we missed the ‘second loss of Vietnam’. I mean the visit of the Vice-POTUS to Vietnam.
Clueless Kamala pays tribute to beloved American war criminal, John McCain, in Vietnam, mistaking a North Vietnamese memorial that celebrates his shoot down and capture for one “honoring” McCain.
LOLZ.
Meanwhile in US Oblivioustan
https://nomadicthoughts.blogs.sapo.pt/meanwhile-in-us-oblivioustan-133951
So, Blinken and Wang Yi talked yesterday. It seems to have been a hot one, again.
I’m looking at the Iranian description of this phone call and yes, I should go to the formal readouts and check this source of course. But, alas, I have not and here it is.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/08/30/665468/China-Foreign-Minister-Wang-Yi-US-Antony-Blinken-Afghanistan-dual-standards
“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has told his American counterpart Antony Blinken that the US should take firm action to help the Taliban combat terrorism rather than acting selectively.”
I would recommend reading that because Wang Yi simply positioned the US where it should be.
“The United States, in particular,” should work with the international community to provide economic and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, help the new rulers run affairs normally, maintain social stability, and stop the currency from depreciating and the cost of living from rising, Wang said as cited in a report by China’s official Xinhua news agency. ”
Another recommendation from the Chinese side (The Global Times and yes, it is acting as a bullhorn).
US seeks help to clean up Afghan mess it created ahead of Aug. 31 deadline
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232849.shtml
The more formal description of events is from Xinhuanet, here, http://www.news.cn/english/2021-08/30/c_1310156003.htm – but the bullhorn version is more fun to read.
You will see the theme – China is telling the US where it should be and what it should do.
Finally, a chat between Aaron Maté, and two US vets, Matthew Hoh and Daniel Sjursen. A lot of what is being discussed in the commentary on the thread here, is confirmed by these two gentlemen. There is a good dicussion, including doing penance, repentance and atonement, with corrective action – but not maudlin. This lifted my spirits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bo7P_podIk&t=18s
But to tie up with Larchmonter445’s comments on counterinsurgency, these two men have some things to say about that.
“You will see the theme – China is telling the US where it should be and what it should do. ‘
xD HA ha dear amarynth dear :)
I cant help it to show my stupid S here again but yet sorry can’t reveal too much here :)
but my mind automatically went to —>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcc0jNJwgJA
oh ya! there is a combat taichi (the west dont usually hear about and dare I say, no west will ever master the real deal – the heart of taoism) In the chinese martial art world, its agreed taichi is the most powerful martial art on earth, I recall one chinese show where they recruited the best of different martial art – the tai chi, the different household names of kung fu, the boxing, the judo, the karate, the teakwando++ and test who is the ultimate winner. fascinating stuff! who won?
observe what WangYi is doing here! watch closely! somebody will get the back of their head slap!!!
btw all these happen is not coz CCP want to, this I can confirm! This happen coz the 12-30+ yr old chinese internet ppl demand CCP take USA to ‘class’ and learn some manners
xD Ha HA
you dont want to mess w the chinese internet ppl! like water, they can float a boat/fleet, and like water they can sink a boat/fleet. just observe how they can sell over 1 million lipsticks in under 10second online! Imagine 1 million online orders pump through the wire/wireless under 10sec! Imagine the consumerism power of these young ppl w their hard earned 2c! why do you think the CCP fear them so much?! and now all of them demand their privacy and human ‘rights’ (the eastern Confucianism ver 人道 – the “human way”, one of the stages in the cycle of reincarnation (Buddhism))!
you take care there and take it easy on dear L445. he is good w his point too :)
Good talk. Glad these two got back home. Their perspective is important. It’s telling how they describe the dissonance or the delusion of US war planners. They just think it’s going to be a walk in the park.
**Moreover, very disturbing news about the ISIS presence in Afg. Perhaps Pak has got a lot to answer for**
The Ahmadi and Nejrabi families had packed all their belongings, waiting for word to be escorted to Kabul airport and eventually moved to the United States, but the message Washington sent instead was a rocket into their homes in a Kabul neighbourhood.
For hours, he and the rest of the surviving family had to listen to Afghan and international media refer to their loved ones, whose remains they had to gather with their own hands, simply as suspected ISKP targets.
Neighbours speaking to Al Jazeera said the house, where little boys and girls had been playing a few minutes prior, turned into a “horror scene”. They described human flesh stuck to the walls. Bones fallen into the bushes. Walls stained red with blood. Shattered glass everywhere.
Talking about one of the younger boys, Farzad, a neighbour said: “We only found his legs.”
The US maintains it conducted, “a self-defence unmanned over-the-horizon air strike today on a vehicle in Kabul, eliminating an imminent ISIS-K threat”, it said in a statement late Sunday afternoon, referring to the ISIL affiliate.
The statement went on to say US Central Command is “assessing the possibilities of civilian casualties” but that they have “no indications at this time” that civilians were killed.
Emran Feroz, an Afghan journalist based in Germany. “It’s very symbolic that US operations in Afghanistan started with drone strikes and ended with drone strikes. It seems they’ve learned nothing in 20 years,”
Feroz said another US drone attack was carried out in Nangarhar a day before the attack on the Ahmadi family, but that “nobody asked about it”.
“All the media outlets repeated Joe Biden’s statement that the targets were Daesh without questioning it,” he said referring to the Arabic name for the ISIL armed group.
Feroz says that from the start of the US invasion through to its final days, Washington and its allies have been trying to “convince the Afghan people that these aerial attacks are only killing terrorists but now, in Kabul, we are seeing their true costs.”
He points to the first-ever US drone attack in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001 – which claimed to kill Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar – as proof of the deadly cost of these tactics.
“To this day we don’t know who was actually killed, and we may never know.”
One implication that can be taken from these horrible events is,
Even the people of Kabul where the occupation was stationed and headquartered have seen the lies brought right to their doorstep in a despicable fashion. Its probably given further support to the talibs.
God knows what happened at the airport three days earlier. They said it was two bombs and then one. After, reports from the hospital and doctors describe bullet wounds to numerous civilians.
Perhaps the US wanted to create a few more radicals to justify their next drone computer exercise.
@Abdullah: “The Ahmadi and Nejrabi families had packed all their belongings, waiting for word to be escorted to Kabul airport and eventually moved to the United States, but the message Washington sent instead was a rocket into their homes in a Kabul neighbourhood.”
“To be a friend of the United $tates is dangerous”. — U$ Nobel Peace Prize war criminal Henry Kissinger.
I agree with blackring’s comment and would add the following
This time is different Russia,china ,iran and the SCO will be a united against the West. The West is in a
decline once the US dollar is rejected world wide the resorces for US Empire will evaporate and the USA
will break apart into several new nation states.
What has given the US all this power since WW2 the fake US dollar and the paper currencies system which
the they control.