Appointment of Boris Gryzlov to represent Russia on the Contact Group brings a key Russian decision maker into the heart of the crisis
by Alexander Mercouris for Russia Insider
That the Russian leadership continues to accord the Ukrainian conflict the highest importance is confirmed by a very interesting appointment the Kremlin has just announced.
This is the appointment of Boris Gryzlov as Russia’s representative on the so-called Contact Group.
The Contact Group was set up in June 2014 as a result of the talks in Normandy between Putin, Poroshenko, Merkel and Hollande.
Its original purpose was to help put into effect the peace plan Poroshenko was expected to announce later that month.
In the event Poroshenko’s peace plan proved a major disappointment, amounting to nothing more than a demand the east Ukrainians disarm unilaterally and their leaders flee to Russia, in return for the vaguest possible promise of eventual “decentralisation”, with no explanation either of what that meant or of the process whereby it would be achieved.
Unsurprisingly, Poroshenko’s peace was rejected by the east Ukrainians and by the Russians (who called it – correctly – an ultimatum rather than a peace plan). However it limped on as a sort of convenient fiction until the Battle of Debaltsevo. The Minsk Protocol of September 2014 was supposedly an amendment of it.
Poroshenko’s peace plan was replaced by the Minsk Agreement of February 2015. Unlike Poroshenko’s peace plan and the September 2014 Minsk Protocol, this is an international agreement to which Russia is a party, which is incorporated in international law by a Security Council Resolution.
The Contact Group has however continued to function as the main venue for discussions between the militia and the Ukrainian government.
This is so even though the Ukrainians insist that they will not negotiate with the militia, whom they call terrorists.
The result is a bizarre situation where the person who speaks for Ukraine’s government in the Contact Group – former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma – does not formally represent Ukraine, but is supposedly there in a private capacity.
Gryzlov’s appointment represents a significant upgrade of Russia’s representation in the Contact Group.
What do we know of Gryzlov? The short answer is surprisingly little, though it is possible to guess more.
Gryzlov trained as a radio engineer in Leningrad, supposedly working in the same radio electronics factory in Leningrad/St. Petersburg from 1977 to 1996. Thereafter, and somewhat inexplicably, he emerged as a major political figure in the late 1990s, being elected to parliament in 1999.
In March 2001 Putin appointed him Russia’s Interior Minister, putting him in overall charge of Russia’s police.
As a radio engineer and plant manager Gryzlov’s qualifications for the post of Interior Minister are not obvious. However he headed the Interior Ministry during a key period.
This was the hottest period of the war against jihadi terrorists in the Caucasus and in Russia, with Caucasian jihadi groups involved in a succession of terrorist outrages across Russia.
The Interior Ministry under Gryzlov’s leadership was at the forefront of the struggle against them.
More important still, Gryzlov was also Interior Minister in overall charge of Russia’s police at the time of the arrest in October 2003 of the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Khodorkovsky – like some of the other oligarchs – had contacts within the Russian security forces.
When the Russian authorities began to put together their case against Khodorkovsky it was by no means a foregone conclusion it would succeed.
That Khodorkovsky was arrested shows that Gryzlov had the police in hand, and that he is reliable.
In fact it is difficult to avoid the feeling that Gryzlov was appointed Interior Minister because Putin needed someone in charge of the police who was reliable and who could be counted on to keep the police loyal in the coming show-down with Khodorkovsky. Gryzlov fitted the bill.
That suggests there is more to Gryzlov than there seems, and that his back story is more complex than that of a mere radio engineer.
With Khodorkovsky safely arrested, Putin a few weeks later transferred Gryzlov from the Interior Ministry to the parliament, where in December 2003 he became Chairman of the State Duma (the lower house of Russia’s parliament) and parliamentary leader of United Russia.
Gryzlov kept these posts until September 2011.
Though less fraught task than running the Interior Ministry during a counter insurgency war and in the lead-up to Khodorkovsky’s arrest, they were nonetheless key posts, keeping the parliament in hand during the potentially difficult transition period of Medvedev’s Presidency.
They are again the sort of posts that are given to a reliable man.
Following Putin’s decision in September 2011 to return to the Presidency, Gryzlov quit his positions in parliament and as parliamentary leader of United Russia.
Since then, though he holds no formal post, Gryzlov continues to be a key figure in the Russian power structure.
This is shown by the fact that he remains a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council.
Russia’s Security Council, though almost completely ignored in the West, is in reality Russia’s key decision making body, where all major decisions are discussed and agreed. The Security Council’s 13 permanent members are the most powerful people in Russia. Gryzlov is one of them.
The fact Gryzlov holds no other publicly disclosed position other than that of permanent member of the Security Council is not a sign he is less powerful or less important than the other 12. Rather it suggests the work he does is secret.
The appointment of such an important man to represent Russia on the Contact Group is a dramatic development.
What makes this appointment even more striking is that Gryzlov has been given plenipotentiary powers.
This means that he can on his own initiative and without consulting Moscow make decisions that are binding on the Russian government.
All of this obviously begs the question of what are the reasons for this appointment?
Whilst obviously we don’t know the full details, it is possible to say a number of things and to make the odd informed guess.
Firstly, Gryzlov is someone at the very top of the Russian power structure.
As a permanent member of the Security Council he has played his part in shaping Russian policy during the Ukrainian conflict. He will be fully familiar with all its aspects.
Over the last two years Putin has had to devote an immense amount of his time to dealing with the crisis in Ukraine.
Gryzlov’s appointment appears at least in part intended to relieve Putin of some of this burden, freeing him to give more time to deal with other matters.
Secondly, Gryzlov far outranks every other Russian official engaged on the ground in Ukraine.
This is important because Russia has suffered from the poor quality of its representatives on the ground in Ukraine.
Direct contacts with the Ukrainian government apparently happen at various levels. However Russia’s actual representative in Kiev has been Mikhail Zurabov, who is Russia’s ambassador to Ukraine.
Zurabov is not a professional diplomat. He is a liberal politician and former minister closely associated with former Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin and Economics Minister German Gref.
Like his predecessor as Russia’s ambassador to Ukraine – Yeltsin’s former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomydin – Zurabov seems to have been sent to Kiev as a form of gentle exile after he fell out of favour. This happened in 2010, at a time when Yanukovych seemed securely in control, and there seemed no need for someone able to act decisively in a crisis.
There have been many complaints about Zurabov.
He is regularly accused of excessive passivity during the Maidan protests. He is also criticised for his failure to put Russia’s case forcefully during the fighting in the Donbass.
Some of these criticisms may be unfair. They take little account of how difficult the job of Russia’s ambassador in Kiev must be.
However it is true that throughout the crisis Zurabov has been almost invisible, and he does seem to be genuinely out of his depth.
The other major figure representing Russia in Ukraine – who however in typical fashion likes to act behind the scenes – is Putin’s former spin-doctor and close friend and adviser, Vladislav Surkov.
Surkov is far too complex a figure to be discussed in detail here. Suffice to say that as Putin’s spin-doctor he has managed the rare feat of antagonising both sides of Russia’s political divide. He is hated equally by Russia’s pro-Western liberals, and by the Communists and Russia’s conservative nationalists, whilst being mistrusted it seems by everyone except Putin himself.
Amazingly Surkov has managed the same feat in Ukraine.
The Maidan movement accuses him – falsely – of being the man behind the massacre of the protesters during the Maidan protests.
Supporters of militia commander Strelkov accuse him of engineering the downfall of their hero.
Supporters of the militia also accuse him of planning the betrayal of the militia and of Novorossia.
The reality is that Surkov does seem to have played an important role behind the scenes, becoming an important channel of communication between the Kremlin and the militia commanders.
The exact nature of his role however remains obscure, and it is doubtful whether he is really as important as his critics believe he is. Even if he does entertain the plans his critics accuse him of, the fact he acts so secretly must limit his effectiveness.
Regardless, the point about Zurabov and Surkov is that Gryzlov far outranks them both.
With Gryzlov now representing Russia in the Contact Group, neither Zurabov nor Surkov any longer have an obvious role, and it is likely both will be relegated or – in Surkov’s case – removed from the scene entirely before long.
As for the reasons for Gryzlov’s appointment, it is surely connected to Russian frustration with the deadlock in the Minsk process.
Not only has the Ukrainian government entirely failed to carry out the political commitments it made in February in Minsk, but the military situation in the Donbass is deteriorating once more.
Gryzlov’s appointment puts a strong man – and one Putin trusts – in place to deal with the situation as it deteriorates.
With Putin feeling increasingly confident that Western interest in Ukraine in slackening, he has now brought a tough and reliable man onto the scene who can be relied upon to shape the situation in Russia’s interests.
It would be nice to hear the Saker’s take on this. Does it seem like the Kremlin is not seeing the value of keeping Minsk as much now as before? Most would argue it was a stall for time, so has enough time been gained that a stronger approach can be taken? Or does it just seem like a way to delegate so that Putin doesn’t have to spend as much time on it?
By the way, far worse things are said about Zurabov. Alexander seems like a nice guy, one who doesn’t like to point out some of the darker things, such as the idea that the Ukraine was not under control for Russia under Yanukovich, and many expected a color revolution at minimum if he managed to win the next election.
Russia Brings on a Heavy-Weight – Hmmm!
Alexander Mercouris, Your essay raises questions: Let us number them:
1. Are you saying that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, has not made all the major final decisions pertinent to the future of the Russian citizens of Novorossiya?
Are you implying, that even if Russia delegates a Kardashian, (either an Alien from Star Trek, or a member of the TV Soap Opera family), to negotiate with the Zionist Americans over the fate of the Russian people in the Ukraine, that Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and the Russian (elected – last I heard), Congress (Duma), are not ultimately responsible for all the Russian decision making in their confrontation with the imperialists?
2. Are you also implying that the Duma (Russia’s Congress) is irrelevant, has no power, and that the Russian government is a Totalitarian Oligarchy, (albeit a benevolent one), and not a Democratic Republic?
“Russia’s Security Council, though almost completely ignored in the West, is in reality Russia’s key decision making body, where all major decisions are discussed and agreed. The Security Council’s 13 permanent members are the most powerful people in Russia.” And…
“Appointment of Boris Gryzlov to represent Russia on the Contact Group brings a key Russian decision maker into the heart of the crisis” And…
“What makes this appointment even more striking is that Gryzlov has been given plenipotentiary powers. This means that he can on his own initiative and without consulting Moscow make decisions that are binding on the Russian government.”
Say What!?!? Do you really mean this? This description of yours is of far greater import than the news of Putin’s appointing a “Heavy-Weight” to some position or other.
3. Why do you write your essay in reverse chronological order?
You begin with the “Heavy-Weight” Gryzlov, and spend most of the latter part, discussing the ‘Light-Weights.’
4. The ‘Light-Weights are blamed for all (or the essential), failures of the Russian politicians’ dealings (negotiations with), with the Zionist Americans who took control of 40 million Russians (and moved their imperialist military closer to the Russian heartland), by way of their coup d’etat in Kiev.
“This is important because Russia has suffered from the poor quality of its representatives on the ground in Ukraine.”
I am not sure that the Russians would make this claim, and attack on their previously appointed ambassadors. Have they? Does the excuse you offer, emanate -directly from the horses’ mouth- (as we ask in Brooklyn)? Or is this your own excuse? If so, you may be excused, as you have the right to your excuse.
5. Why do you not clarify that the Ukraine is -Occupied Russian Territory?
Is this, not the conundrum, the pink elephant in the room, that few Russian leaders (or Americans, or Europeans, will give voice to? The Russian Patriots are, as with the Blues Brothers, on a mission from God to put the Band back together. The Russian Patriots have no other choice. Without the complete band, there will be no music, and that music is good for the liberty, peace, and prosperity, of a politically, multi-polar world. The anti-imperialists in the West must understand that (many of us do).
The Final and most difficult question, that you might be hinting at (or not):
6. Will this ‘Heavy-Weight’ be “Heavy” toward the imperialists, or will he be “Heavy” toward the Novorossyan Partisans and the Ukraine’s Russian people, and, allow them to be imprisoned within the confines of, and the tender loving care, of the Zionist American NATO puppet Nazi government of occupied Ukraine?
[The Russian leaders cannot be blamed for their abandonment of their Serbian brothers; Russia was in ruins in 1990, but they could be blamed in 2015/6, for not protecting their people in the Ukraine]
“As for the reasons for Gryzlov’s appointment, it is surely connected to Russian frustration with the deadlock in the Minsk process.
Not only has the Ukrainian government entirely failed to carry out the political commitments it made in February in Minsk, but the military situation in the Donbass is deteriorating once more.”
Your answer/clarification to question #6 would be most helpful. I am making no charges, only asking useful questions that need answers, or the best estimates you can provide.
For the Democratic Republics!
Looks like they are preparing for another likely ‘stab in the back’ (or spleen) from a combined Ukraine-Turk criminal network. It may well be that Putin is somewhat emboldened by the success in Syria and the impotence of NATO to actually do anything overt head-to-head. With a $3b loan default and a clear public statement that the Russians believe they are dealing with straight out criminals (rather than states) then preparing to take the SE Ukraine as default compensation may well be likely. Although it seems no great prize value in itself there may be significant geopolitical value to force NATO and its proxy thug armies more into the open.
that stab in the spleen could be a turkish interest in the mejilis and kiev’s support for Dzhemeliv and a naval blockade of Crimea and perhaps further electricity supply disruptions.
The question is: how can a bankrupt state such as Ukraine afford to war?
Obviously the ‘creditors’ behind the IMF etc are the the warring parties.
When this change was announced, it was clear that another member of the former deep “circle of FSB-KGB men” was being sent to complete Putin’s plan.
Alexander Mercouris details all the shadows and mirrors of Gryzlov’s career. Boris Gryzlov’s track record clearly points to a covert life, quiet, commissioned to do what the Putin group needs done.
And it brings to the Contact Group the full muscle and intellect of the Kremlin.
Little Kiev (and it will be diminished even more by this move) will feel pressure with no ambiguity of an ambassador or the Marmot Surkov.
This is for the whole of Ukraine. Putin has always wanted a federal Ukraine, neutralized and safe for its own good. An economically crippled or militarily destroyed Ukraine has never been a goal. Novorossiya and Donbass have suffered because the greater goal was to keep Ukraine as an entity for Eurasian development and as a large barrier to NATO.
Porochenko has used up his time in office and all the financial aid and loans. He has played it out to the fullest, obeying the ideologues from the US.
Gryzlov is now going to dictate the terms of surrender.
He will be dictating the terms to France and Germany as well as Kiev. And in the background is not the noise of Nazi shelling of Donbass. It is the war being waged in Syria against AQ, ISIS and Turkey. Russia, superpower, fearing no one, no coalition, defying the Hegemon, is capable of disposing of any obstacles or alliances at great distances from Mother Russia. Handling Kiev and the few thousands of US and NATO special operators/trainers within 100 miles of the border is day work, target practice really.
The Bear is on the move.
And about time !! May it be over before the New Year has it’s boots on.
And how is he going to dictate anything other than reminding DPR to abide by Minsk II?
LJ
“And how is he going to dictate anything other than reminding DPR to abide by Minsk II?”
Yesss! That is the -$64,000 Question- (old TV quiz show title).
*In war, as in peace, it is Armed Force that does the dictating, not politicians. It was the Russian Army (not their politicians), that liberated Kiev, on November 6, 1943, and continued the march to Berlin.
In international politics, Politicians negotiate surrenders – of their side, or of the enemy.
PJA
Are you implying that Russia is going to get either the NAF or the NAF with some little green men to take over Kiev? The world is ruled by force, and what has the Donbass got? We understand that the Kremlin wants to use the Ukraine as a buffer state and a part of a Eurasian alliance with the EU. But they wanted that two or three years ago, and things haven’t gone in that direction.
Besides, Putin and the Russian government in general like to talk about law a lot. If Russia invades, what chance of a Eurasian-EU relationship is there? Russia recognized Poroshenko and the Kiev government.
Peter J.Antonsen,raised some very good questions. The answer to one of them (the easy one),is yes Russians also attack Zurabov. And in much harsher language than Alexander used. I see that all the time on Russian and pro-Novrossian pages. The other questions (much harder) have very complicated answers. To me the most important question was on which direction is Gryzlov’s appointment aimed at. But there is another question I would bring up. Does Russia not realize that “Donbass” is only one problem with the Ukraine. Russian officials seem to act like the Crimean situation is a settled affair. And while from their viewpoint it is. From the Ukrainian fascist side its far from settled. We see they (and their Western “friends” ) constantly saying that Crimea is part of Ukraine. And with attacks on the power lines,they are doing more than talking. Now with the “open” aid of “NATO” member Turkey they are forming a terrorist guerrilla group. That also “openly” says they are going to hit Crimea with terrorist raids in the future. So lets make this clear. A joint Ukrainian/Turkish formed group is openly plotting terror attacks on the soil of the RF. I can’t think of how much more of a problem there could be. An example would be if a joint Mexican/Russian armed and formed force was openly saying they were planning terror raids inside the US borders. I can easily see if that was happening the US would threaten to declare war over it. And they would be correct to do that. But, I don’t see or hear any response from Russia on that. And yet,unlike the example I mentioned,the Crimean danger of terrorist attacks is very real.
@Uncle Bob 1 :> I would say to that, are you aware that a bear can be in hibernation and still react with irresistible force when needed? It’s a semi-involuntary reaction, controlled by a bear’s sense of smell and/or hearing. The same should be applied to the head of the Russian bear in this case. I really hope and pray that those fools Erdogan and Dzhemilev don’t really believe that they can poke the Russian bear like that and come away with all their limbs in tact.
I think they do believe that. Whether they can or not is not clear yet. Hopefully they are wrong about that, and they lose an arm or leg to show that.
Have you ever seen what a bear does when they’re rousted from hibernation? Could be why NATO hasn’t confronted them openly. I don’t feel the need to see that kind of savagery unleashed anytime soon. I think that is why, as an American, I sometimes feel safer with the bear being around, and interested. It is a pleasure watching the west being outclassed. The Neocons can’t stop throwing themselves around long enough to know when they’ve been cut. The problem is, they are so ravenous, that they are very capable of bringing on that savagery. Then, they will have earned what they have been rewarded. Retribution of such utter finality, that at times they would have sworn that the earth Herself was behind it. Keep poking.
Loyalty, strength and intelligence are prized virtues. But they are conditioned by context and purpose.
“To thy own self be true…”
Love is the North Star that separates the wheat from the chaff and terrorist ISIS from the love goddess Isis.
Not an easy thing. I’ll only know in the heat of the moment.
In a little over three days and an hour local time Minsk 2 is over.
I have no idea what EU will say when hostilities renew, Kiev has yet to enact a single one of the articles of the agreement. That being said when NAF finally defends themselves against the never ending Uke bombardments and attacks I’m sure NAF and Russia will be blamed yet again, EU has no choice but to dance to the tune of their colonial masters in DC and Langley.
In my opinion the appointment of Mr. Gryzlov is simply to put a top manager with command decision authority in a position where he will ply his trade, the ‘as needed’ I think will arrive shortly.
Mr. Antonsen, perhaps you should ask your questions in Berlin, Brussels, London and DC. They tout themselves as democracies, actually the very loose modern definition of ‘democracy’. Russia is not authoritarian, Russia is authoritative. I think there is a difference. Democracy is not a panacea for the world’s ills by any stretch of the imagination.
Auslander,
“Mr. Antonsen, perhaps you should ask your questions in Berlin, Brussels, London and DC.”
I just have. I asked them on this finest Forum, to all its participants, who range from my Peninsula, all the way to Russia, and your Peninsula.
As for:
“Democracy is not a panacea for the world’s ills by any stretch of the imagination.”
Democratic Republics led by contentious, well armed, and, well educated citizens, are not necessarily “a panacea for the world’s ills” so much as a curative, a medicine, a Moral VISION to aim for. The alternative is too horrible to envision, a continuation of the rule of the planet by Fascist Oligarchs, who control all, own all, tyrannize us, dehumanize us, and who are grinding our planet and its inhabitants – to dust.
This Anarchist will not wait, rely on, the illusory fiction of some ‘Superman’ or ‘Supermen’ to arrive and somehow save us from ourselves.
The future is our Responsibility! And we must step up to the plate (Brooklyn baseball metaphor)!
Respect all, Bow to no one!
For the Democratic Republics!
I thought that they extended the Minsk agreement to 2016,was I wrong about that? Though,regardless I don’t see the junta fulfilling it in 2016 either. Along those lines,RT posted a video of a RADA member singing along with a song praising Adolf Hitler and toasting him. So much for the “no nazis” in Ukraine lie.
https://www.rt.com/news/327288-ukrainian-lawmaker-hitler-song/
Guess who’s coming to dinner?
Ukraine, Turkey and Israel form tripartite trade relationship:
http://novorossia.today/common-enemies-of-the-free-world-work-out-a-free-trade-deal-ukraine-turkey-and-israeli-juntas/
Mr. Gryzlov is surely aware of the significance of these developments.
Indeed. The usual suspects, schoolyard-bully-friends from way back, are renewing their boyscout pledges of hoaxes and horror. Drug dealing, organ harvesting, ecstasy/captagon production, white slavery are high on the agenda. Scary stuff!
Yawn.
I asked The Saker elsewhere what happens on January 01 2016 wrt to Minsk 2. The main reason was because I had read that Zak (IIRC) had stated that if the nazis continued their attacks from then, and since Minsk 2 was to have been complied with by end 2015, then DPR would not be bound by it and could attack.
Also, Putin should never have accepted anything from kerry regarding Ukraine, he should have demanded that obummer send biden instead, since Ukraine is very much his satanic baby.
According to reuters, poro****ko was given a ‘warning’ of sorts by biden, ‘That the current team have a last chance to do something,” the source said’, & biden said: ‘It may be your last moment. Please for the sake of the rest of us, selfishly on my part…’ So from late Jan 2017, biden will be out of the picture then, but of course, the neocons will still be in play, but how effectively from then? We will have to wait and see.
This seems like the kind of gentleman to whom always is entrusted the most thorny and difficult job.
He had always called my attention seeing him at the meetings of the Security Council and seeing that, however, he had no portfolio ….
I also had seen him always amongst the guests, but never in the first line, in the shots provided by RT, on important events, as the Annual Address to the Nation of Mr Putin.
Always seemed to me a very elegant man. Now that I can see him at close range in this picture that brings Mr. Mercouris in his article, I can see that his gaze is relentless …… but reliable…..
Definitely, yes, you bullies and clowns in the Ukraine, the joke is over !
“6. Will this ‘Heavy-Weight’ be “Heavy” toward the imperialists, or will he be “Heavy” toward the Novorossyan Partisans and the Ukraine’s Russian people, and, allow them to be imprisoned within the confines of, and the tender loving care, of the Zionist American NATO puppet Nazi government of occupied Ukraine?”
All indications are that he is there make sure Minsk II is the last Minsk Accord. Sadly.
I realize my post is ambiguous. The job is to push the Donbass into re-uniting the Donbass with the Ukrops. I will be more than happy to find out that is not the case.
From the author’s provided analysis, this change doesn’t look good for zionazia. So it can’t be a bad thing… ;D
Wow Alexander, this is a superb article. Thanks so much…I loved it.
All Boris Gryzlov needs to do is walk into that rat infested Rada and, like the 3-Star general in Baghdad, simply announce they have ‘3 hours’ to fully endorse and authorize immediate implementation of the Minsk 2.0 Agreement or the Russian people will push their Nazi-scum arses all the way back to Berlin if necessary.
And with Russia’s export S400 air-force-and-security-complex systems up for global sale (or hire?… ref: Syria for testimonials) — including the new ‘currently exiled’ government of Ukraine waiting in the wings for the “Poroshenko Must Go!” Hand-Back Show — then who can stop this ‘Great’ force Putin is riding like a river-log down the Amu Darya?
The Mob in charge — NATO?
Forget it! They are already losing WW3 — they don’t want to ignite WW4 just yet.
https://www.rt.com/news/327302-russia-syria-rebels-isis-offensive/
Putin’s 2016 ploys will be very close to winning the tipping-point future of ‘History’ for the next millennia.
With Russia’s Syrian Campaign operating a highly cost effective S400 enhanced Russian air-force supporting local national ‘boots on the ground’ then — “Yes!” — any UN-endorsed nation can now subscribe to ‘affordable’ and proven anti-NATO fumigation and protection services: “Don’t Leave Home without one!”
Yes, even the emerging State of Palestine (2.0) could subscribe from its new Capital in the Syrian Golan Heights – part of a Two-State Agreement ‘gift’ from uncle Vlad and cousin Bashar.
What we have seen in the SE Ukrainian ‘Lab’ is a new form of ‘good’ governance at work. The potential emerging of a center of Commonwealth that seeks to implement what the name suggests: “Common Wealth” within a Federated Ukraine. This model has been updated for a ‘no NATO-Fly’ Syria and that scenario perfected and about to be re-invested in Ukraine’s capacity to pay its debts.
The main issue within today’s distributed ‘chaos’ governance systems is to define the ‘Center’. Within the current Western context it largely comes down to pinning down and positioning the trans-national 1% ‘Exceptionalist Axis’ (EA) – these new ‘invisible’ gated aristocracy thinking they are above the Law and Common Justice. These outlaws, these ‘little gods’, who largely live above and outside the Law, what future have they in a new regulated sustainable capitalism?
In the Russian ‘East’ the present ‘center’ appears to be V. Putin and the re-emergent Eastern Orthodox religion. They must contemplate deeply the possibility of an inaugural 21st century ceremony in a liberated Hagia Sophia returned to the Christian world: “Have you realised (yet) what you have done, Erdogan & Co?” That stab in the back by Erdogan’s Left-hand of Islam may just hold the keys to the Cathedral doors in Constantinople!
Abstractly, we are seeing a friction between new emerging and old centres: emerging peer-to-peer networks within a globally linked security system centred in Moscow –vs– an old established hierarchical top-down globally linked security system centred in ‘DC’. At the most earthly and pragmatic it is Putin’s top man turning up to collect the $3b bad debt – either by IMF cash$ or a bucket of effective title ‘flesh&blood’ all the way from the Crimea along the south-eastern Ukraine borderlands.
Indeed, the old 20th century USSR ‘Swans’ are still flying but what they carry is advanced 21st century.
“Oh-Bummer’s B-Team” of DC Neocons has been largely blindsided – the 2D moving shadow on the geopolitical landscape is their Black Swan. Greater variety governs lower variety and Putin has it in spades!
Bottom-line: Boris Gryzlov has gone to day “Bye, Bye” to Biden (who must go in 2016)!
Deng Xiaoping was the “paramount leader” of the People’s Republic of China from December 1978 to 1992, despite having no official position after 1987, other than being the Chairman of the Central Military Commission until 1989.
Hope Vlad has his running shoes on, & is standing by the phone on Noo Year’s Eve.
Many have figured out that to distract resources away from Syria, & to “celebrate” the deadline Minsk 2 implementation date DEC 31 coming, we’ll see them launch a New Year’s offensive.
Russia Reports Kiev Is Planning A Major Offensive Against Donbass – Episode 853b
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTs1HxdElVY
X22 Report Dave DEC 28/2015
LOL.
Stephen Fry on Twitter:
“Caravaggio lives. An unseemly brawl in the Ukraine parliament – when photographed right – takes on a classical look”
See photograph / picture here: https://twitter.com/stephenfry/status/677013975201091585 :)
Best Wishes for the New Year to All!
Q.
Reuters: Corruption in pro-American regime in Ukraine is so bad, a Nigerian prince would be embarrassed…( But not NATO regimes ).
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/12/30/corruption-in-ukraine-is-so-bad-a-nigerian-prince-would-be-embarrassed-2/
Oh, man! Couldn’t happen to nicer bunch of people as the IMF. Western crooks, meet Eurasian crooks. It kills me that they’re being ripped off so easily. The irony is hilarious! Looks like they really stepped in it.
Alexander Mercouris, thanks for this fine article, I have become wiser.
Just watched a great video presentation in which Putin talks candidly about most of the topics people here want to know answers to .Please take the time to watch all 7 parts to understand what the future holds and how Putin thinks There will never be a war unless the US is stupid enough to attack Russia first. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf6_1451260176