I took quick look this afternoon at the headlines on the (always excellent) Information Clearing House (which, by the way, is in great need of financial help!) and I saw these:
- Plan for No Fly Zone Over Syria
- U.S. Urges Americans to Leave Syria “Immediately”
- David Cameron: War looms in Syria
- France Considers ‘Humanitarian Corridors’ in Syria
- Perry Calls for No-Fly Zone In Syria, Would Act Unilaterally Without UN Authorization
Bosnia all over again. Kosovo all over again. Libya all over again.
Sickening.
Syria’s a lot more geopolitically sensitive than Libya, which was geographically and politically isolated. And they’re unlikely to get a UNSC resolution this time round.
Turkey has been working hard at derailing Syria (TR also helped the thugs in Libya). The “opposition” meets in Turkey and is under total Turkish control. The only Kurdish member of the group was assassinated not long ago at his home because he dared to raise questions on the rights of Kurdish people.
Meanwhile Turkey had been in negotiations with the PKK to find a solution to the Kurdish issue in Turkey. PKK has a strong support in Syria as well and Kurds in Syria, for the most part, have kept out of the “uprisings”. Turkey couldn’t provoke them, despite everything they tried.
Turkish media and the current govt all of a sudden started the propaganda that the PKK was supporting Assad and was responsible for the death of Syrian people. They also ended the negotiations and started using chemical weapons + napalm-b against the PKK guerrillas. While using chemical weapons against guerrillas, Turkey is now cracking down on Kurdish politicians and activists who have never had any connection with armed resistance.
Long story short, Turkey’s aims for Syria didn’t yet come true and she is superbly disturbed about it. The Turkish public is being “prepared” for military intervention into Syria.
Zerkes
Zerkes,
A year or so ago you called Erdogan’s posturing a maneuver to gain Arab popularity and that it had no substance.
I had thought (or maybe just hoped) that you were mistaken. But it seems you were right on the bulls-eye.
Do you see a Turkish attack on Syria as inevitable? Anything that would prevent it? Could such an attack go horribly wrong (from the point of view of Turkish interests. Obviously, it will go wrong for everyone else)
Thanks
Lysander,
Turkey is calculating now. Turkey would have attacked if it wasn’t for two things it cannot control: Iranian support and potential conflict with the PKK as they cross the borders. Please remember that there is a Kurdish belt in north of Syria due to the artificially drawn border.
Whether Turkey will attack or not depends on what promise it gets from the NATO, US, and Israel. The Turkish “intelligentsia”, by which I mean the USA style think-tanks which surround Erdogan (these Think-Tanks, like everything else, are tied to the Gulen movement) are now repeatedly saying this very sentence: If Assad doesn’t go in 2012, then it will be very risky days for Turkey.
I am not sure how true it is but I recently heard that two Turkish choppers (probably Conbras) have entered into Syrian airspace. Saker may know more about this or whether this is testing the Syrian vigilance or not.
When/if I hear more “off the street” news, I will post here.
Zerkes
PS: About Erdogan and the Gulen Movement, it’s just starting… It will only get worse.