by Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted
Ten days of full immersion in Brazil are not for the faint-hearted. Even restricted to the top two megalopolises, Sao Paulo and Rio, watching live the impact of interlocking economic, political, social and environmental crises exacerbated by the Jair Bolsonaro project leaves one stunned.
The return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for what will be his third presidential term, starting January 1, 2023, is an extraordinary story trespassed by Sisyphean tasks. All at the same time he will have to
- fight poverty;
- reconnect with economic development while redistributing wealth;
- re-industrialize the nation; and
- tame environmental pillage.
That will force his new government to summon unforeseen creative powers of political and financial persuasion.
Even a mediocre, conservative politician such as Geraldo Alckmin, former governor of the wealthiest state of the union, Sao Paulo, and coordinator of the presidential transition, was simply astonished at how four years of the Bolsonaro project let loose a cornucopia of vanished documents, a black hole concerning all sorts of data and inexplicable financial losses.
It’s impossible to ascertain the extent of corruption across the spectrum because simply nothing is in the books: Governmental systems have not been fed since 2020.
Alckmin summed it all up: “The Bolsonaro government happened in the Stone Age, where there were no words and numbers.”
Now every single public policy will have to be created, or re-created from scratch, and serious mistakes will be inevitable because of lack of data.
And we’re not talking about a banana republic – even though the country concerned features plenty of (delicious) bananas.
By purchasing power parity (PPP), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Brazil remains the eighth-ranked economic power in the world even after the Bolsonaro devastation years – behind China, the US, India, Japan, Germany, Russia and Indonesia, and ahead of the UK and France.
A concerted imperial campaign since 2010, duly denounced by WikiLeaks, and implemented by local comprador elites, targeted the Dilma Rousseff presidency – the Brazilian national entrepreneurial champions – and led to Rousseff’s (illegal) impeachment and the jailing of Lula for 580 days on spurious charges (all subsequently dropped), paved the way for Bolsonaro to win the presidency in 2018.
Were it not for this accumulation of disasters, Brazil – a natural leader of the Global South – by now might possibly be placed as the fifth-largest geo-economic power in the world.
What the investment gang wants
Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr, a former vice-president of the New Development Bank (NDB), or BRICS bank, goes straight to the point: Brazil’s dependence on Lula is immensely problematic.
Batista sees Lula facing at least three hostile blocs.
- The extreme right supported by a significant, powerful faction of the armed forces – and this includes not only Bolsonarists, who are still in front of a few army barracks contesting the presidential election result;
- The physiological right that dominates Congress – known in Brazil as “The Big Center”;
- International financial capital – which, predictably, controls the bulk of mainstream media.
The third bloc, to a great extent, gleefully embraced Lula’s notion of a United Front capable of defeating the Bolsonaro project (which project, by the way, never ceased to be immensely profitable for the third bloc).
Now they want their cut. Mainstream media instantly turned to corralling Lula, operating a sort of “financial inquisition,” as described by crack economist Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo.
By appointing longtime Workers’ Party loyalist Fernando Haddad as finance minister, Lula signaled that he, in fact, will be in charge of the economy. Haddad is a political-science professor and was a decent minister of education, but he’s no sharp economic guru. Acolytes of the Goddess of the Market, of course, dismiss him.
Once again, this is the trademark Lula swing in action: He chose to place more importance on what will be complex, protracted negotiations with a hostile Congress to advance his social agenda, confident that all the lineaments of economic policy are in his head.
A lunch party with some members of Sao Paulo’s financial elite, even before Haddad’s name was announced, offered a few fascinating clues. These people are known as the “Faria Limers” – after the high-toned Faria Lima Avenue, which houses quite a few post-mod investment banks’ offices as well as Google and Facebook HQs.
Lunch attendees included a smattering of rabid anti-Workers’ Party investors, the proverbial unreconstructed neoliberals, yet most were enthusiastic about opportunities ahead to make a killing, including an investor looking for deals involving Chinese companies.
The neoliberal mantra of those willing – perhaps – to place their bets on Lula (for a price) is “fiscal responsibility.” That frontally clashes with Lula’s focus on social justice.
That’s where Haddad comes up as a helpful, polite interlocutor because he does privilege nuance, pointing out that only looking at market indicators and forgetting about the 38% of Brazilians who only earn the minimum wage (1,212 Brazilian real or US$233 per month) is not exactly good for business.
The dark arts of non-government
Lula is already winning his first battle: approving a constitutional amendment that allows financing of more social spending.
That allows the government to keep the flagship Bolsa Família welfare program – of roughly $13 a month per poverty-level family – at least for the next two years.
A stroll across downtown Sao Paulo – which in the 1960s was as chic as mid-Manhattan – offers a sorrowful crash course on impoverishment, shut-down businesses, homelessness and raging unemployment. The notorious “Crack Land” – once limited to a street – now encompasses a whole neighborhood, much like junkie, post-pandemic Los Angeles.
Rio offers a completely different vibe if one goes for a walk in Ipanema on a sunny day, always a smashing experience. But Ipanema lives in a bubble. The real Rio of the Bolsonaro years – economically massacred, de-industrialized, occupied by militias – came up in a roundtable downtown where I interacted with, among others, a former energy minister and the man who discovered the immensely valuable pre-salt oil reserves.
In the Q&A, a black man from a very poor community advanced the key challenge for Lula’s third term: To be stable, and able to govern, he has to have the vast poorest sectors of the population backing him up.
This man voiced what seems not to be debated in Brazil at all: How did there come to be millions of poor Bolsonarists – street cleaners, delivery guys, the unemployed? Right-wing populism seduced them – and the established wings of the woke left had, and still have, nothing to offer them.
Addressing this problem is as serious as the destruction of Brazilian engineering giants by the Car Wash “corruption” racket. Brazil now has a huge number of well-qualified unemployed engineers. How come they have not amassed enough political organization to reclaim their jobs? Why should they resign themselves to becoming Uber drivers?
José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, the new head of the UN Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), may carp about the region’s economic failure as even worse now than in the “lost decade” of the 1980s: Average annual economic growth in Latin America in the decade up to 2023 is set to be just 0.8%.
Yet what the UN is incapable of analyzing is how a plundering neoliberal regime such as Bolsonaro’s managed to “elevate” to unforeseen toxic levels the dark arts of little or no investment, low productivity and less than zero emphasis on education.
President Dilma in da house
Lula was quick to summarize Brazil’s new foreign policy – which will go totally multipolar, with emphasis on increasing Latin American integration, stronger ties across the Global South and a push to reform the UN Security Council (in sync with BRICS members Russia, China and India).
Mauro Vieira, an able diplomat, will be the new foreign minister. But the man fine-tuning Brazil on the world stage will be Celso Amorim, Lula’s former foreign minister from 2003 to 2010.
In a conference that reunited us in Sao Paulo, Amorim elaborated on the complexity of the world Lula is now inheriting, compared with 2003. Yet along with climate change the main priorities – achieving closer integration with South America, reviving Unasur (the Union of South American Nations) and re-approaching Africa – remain the same.
And then there’s the Holy Grail: “good relations with both the US and China.”
The Empire, predictably, will be on extreme close watch. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan dropped in to Brasilia, during the fist days of the World Cup soccer tournament, and was absolutely charmed by Lula, who’s a master of charisma. Yet the Monroe Doctrine always prevails. Lula getting closer and closer to BRICS – and the expanded BRICS+ – is considered virtual anathema in Washington.
So Lula will play most overtly in the environment arena. Covertly, it will be a sophisticated balancing act.
The combo behind US President Joe Biden called Lula to congratulate him soon after the election results. Sullivan was in Brasilia setting the stage for a Lula visit to Washington. Chinese President Xi Jinping for his part sent him an affectionate letter, emphasizing the “global strategic partnership” between Brazil and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Lula earlier this week – and emphasized their common strategic approach to BRICS.
China has been Brazil’s top trade partner since 2009, ahead of the US. Bilateral trade in 2021 hit $135 billion. The problem is lack of diversification and focus on low added value: iron ore, soybeans, raw crude and animal protein accounted for 87.4% of exports in 2021. China exports, on the other hand, are mostly high-tech manufactured products.
Brazil’s dependence on commodity exports has indeed contributed for years to its rising foreign reserves. But that implies high concentration of wealth, low taxes, low job creation and dependence on cyclical price oscillations.
There’s no question China is focused on Brazilian natural resources to fuel its new development push – or “peaceful modernization,” as established by the latest Party Congress.
But Lula will have to strive for a more equal trade balance in case he manages to restart the nation as a solid economy. In 2000, for instance, Brazil’s top export item was Embraer jets. Now, it’s iron ore and soybeans; yet another dire indicator of the ferocious de-industrialization operated by the Bolsonaro project.
China is already investing substantially in the Brazilian electric sector – mostly due to state companies being bought by Chinese companies. That was the case in 2017 of State Grid buying CPFL in Sao Paulo, for instance, which in turn bought a state company from southern Brazil in 2021.
From Lula’s point of view, that’s inadmissible: a classic case of privatization of strategic public assets.
A different scenario plays in neighboring Argentina. Buenos Aires in February became an official partner of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative, with at least $23 billion in new projects on the pipeline. The Argentine railway system will be upgraded by – who else? – Chinese companies, to the tune of $4.6 billion.
The Chinese will also be investing in the largest solar energy plant in Latin America, a hydroelectric plant in Patagonia, and a nuclear energy plant – complete with transfer of Chinese technology to the Argentine state.
Lula, beaming with invaluable soft power not only personally when it comes to Xi but also appealing to Chinese public opinion, can get similar strategic partnership deals, with even more amplitude. Brasilia may follow the Iranian partnership model – offering oil and gas in exchange for building critical infrastructure.
Inevitably, the golden path ahead will be via joint ventures, not mergers and acquisitions. No wonder many in Rio are already dreaming of high-speed rail linking it to Sao Paulo in just over an hour, instead of the current, congested highway journey of six hours (if you’re lucky).
A key role will be played by former president Dilma Rousseff, who had a long, leisurely lunch with a few of us in Sao Paulo, taking her time to recount, in minutiae, everything from the day she was officially arrested by the military dictatorship (January 16, 1970) to her off-the-record conversations with then-German chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin, and Xi.
It goes without saying that her political – and personal – capital with both Xi and Putin is stellar. Lula offered her any post she wanted in the new government. Although still a state secret, this will be part of a serious drive to polish Brazil’s global profile, especially across the Global South.
To recover from the previous, disastrous six years – which included a two-year no man’s land (2016-2018) after the impeachment of president Dilma – Brazil will need an unparalleled national drive of re-industrialization at virtually every level, complete with serious investment in research and development, training of specialized work forces and technology transfer.
There is a superpower that can play a crucial role in this process: China, Brazil’s close partner in the expanding BRICS+. Brazil is one of the natural leaders of the Global South, a role much prized by the Chinese leadership.
The key now is for both partners to establish a high-level strategic dialogue – all over again. Lula’s first high-profile foreign visit may be to Washington. But the destination that really matters, as we watch the river of history flow, will be Beijing.
Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian journalist who has written for Asia Times for many years, covering events throughout Asia and the Middle East. He has also been an analyst for RT and Sputnik News, and previously worked for Al Jazeera.
Come on China, start the ball rolling.
An electric car joint venture between a Chinese car maker and a new Brazilian state run company?
A mobile phone joint venture?
An aircraft joint venture with Embraer?
This will be superb optics.
Pepe, I am going to tell you why millions of poor Brazilians voted for Bolsonaro en masse; It was because the Catholic Church in Brazil adopted communism with its theology of Liberation and stopped talking about God because of Marx and the evangelicals who never tire of talking about God attracted them by tens of millions, it’s that simple.
Pepe, you know very well that the millions of Brazilians in deep Brazil are very religious and are used to getting by without help from anyone and now that they are evangelicals they vote for Bolsonaro because he presents himself to them as one of their own. The evangelicals would vote for Lula, I assure you, if Lula distances himself from abortion, homosexuality, euthanasia and everything from the satanic West that Putin pointed out in his speech.
There cannot be a broad political project in Brazil if you pass over 50% of its inhabitants.
Lula is not a leader at all nor does he have charisma.
I see his government ahead if it becomes very turbulent.
bom comentário em relação aos pobres,e as lideranças mais significativas que estão próximas de Lula estão com este enfoque tambem
ressalva apenas ,Lula é líder e carismático
voto no PT desde sua criação em 1982
Machine Translation: good comment regarding the poor, and the most significant leaders who are close to Lula are with this focus as well
only caveat, Lula is leader and charismatic
vote for the PT since its creation in 1982
You, as many, confuse Marx’s message about religion. In his day, the Church very definitely offered ‘opium’ to the people in its message to accept poverty and state crimes while waiting for a reward in heaven. In essence, the Church was an instrument of state power, effectively preventing the economic development of the working class by maintaining the social status quo.
The Bolsheviks are accused of being anti-Church, and they definitely were so, but when we consider that the Church was probably the single greatest landowner and exploiter of the peasantry in all of Russia, it is obvious why the Church was an enemy of the Revolution.
I don’t claim that communist materialism was any great supporter of the Church, but the Church did not die out and after the end of the USSR, we have seen a massive resurgence of the Eastern Orthodox Church. Likewise in China, after the excesses of the Cultural Revolution, Buddhist and Taoist monasteries and temples flourish (with state support) and even Christianity has its play, as long as the Catholics refute loyalty to Rome.
In effect, Liberation Theology was one of the finest expressions of Christianity in many years, and working people know this.
I don’t trust any nation’s leadership to do the right thing for the people. I have learned the leader’s lie, take bribes, and looking out for themselves and their power. Brazil has always been a nation full of corrupt leaders and I don’t think that will change anytime soon. What ever the BRICS community can do for them should be welcomed.
Lula’s first official visit to US already smells like the same old nonsense will be pushed by Washington on Brazil about less government control over day-to-day affairs of the country replaced by more NGO’s working with IMF, George Soros, Bill Gates …. mega corporations, paving the way for their 2030 Agenda that wants everybody eating insects, inject vaccine once a month…etc. Brazil and Latin America represent a very good place for those criminal WEF experimentation. It would be hard for Brazil to trust America after all this especially seeing how the Russian and other countries’ national funds were stolen by western cabals.
Nobody should trust the US. Nobody should’ve trusted them for the last 50 years.
And if the Pantspooper-In-Chief’s cadre of handlers aren’t vehemently opposed to your country’s “leaders”, be prepared to suffer.
I understand you want Lula to be a hero, but I am sorry to say that he is not.
Currently he is more a leftists than a socialist… US supported him in this election
He is not a Che Guevara and he is neither Putin neither Xi
I trust far more in the president of Argentina than in Lula
Lula não é herói e nunca foi
É político de boa cepa!
Machine Translation: Lula is not a hero and never has been
He’s a good politician!
@ OscardelaMadrid.
I now understand why he has support from the US Left. I was suspicious of the prioritising of ‘climate change’ policy.- He lines up with all the rest of their garbage.
I hope, for the sake of himself and his nation, it is only lip service, but I fear it isn’t.
We are sorry to inform you, but “The US Left” died years ago. What some call “The Left” have all been bought off by US Financial Systems and the current US govt. administration.
That Left is as Right Wing as the “The Left” in Europe is. They are ALL tied to Big Finance.
“So Lula will play most overtly in the environment arena.” Meaning “climate change” which is the basis for the Great Reset and the surrendering of national sovereignty to unelected bureaucrats and a Global Government where we all get to eat bugs, own nothing and be happy.
Be prepared to be disappointed Pepe. Leftist does not equal socialist. It equals Biden/Trudeau/Macron/Merkel
/Morrison/Ardenn.
@ Pepe
Obrigado Pepe, as always.
You’re back from the motherland with a bang.
Guess Rio’s sun recharged your batteries.
When I saw your picture standing on Ipanema on Telegram, I surely hoped you were there not just to get a sunbath. I can see that Lula did not miss the opportunity, and whether you two met will remain a secret, but at least you met with some people close to him.
Carpe Diem.
Thank you for the Telegram post about Putin congratulating Lula, lots of water has gone under the river of their lives, I look forward to see those two historical personalities meeting again after all they have gone through in their respective walking.
I feel sorry about the poverty of the comments, and the ad homini attacks on Lula.
Please don’t pay attention to the trolls, their job is to promote ignorance.
The comments clearly reflect an abysmal lack of knowledge about Brazil in particular, Latin America in general, and the role Lula played at the birth of the multipolar world ideal we are now struggling to make real.
A few things need to be established, vis-à-vis the derogatory comments on Lula.
First of all, Lula is a man of principles, he’s nobody’s puppet, the Brazilian ruling classes, or the US neocons. He’s not a “leftist,” by now that’s a signified without a signifier, given the political corruption of the term, and its misapplication in the political arena. Lula has gone through hell and back to stand up back on his feet, and with him, his country. He’s a man of pragmatical ideals, very much aware of his political limitations, while very capable of pushing the envelope to reach his objectives.
It is laughable to blame Liberation Theology for Brazilians voting for Bolsonaro en-masse. Even more to say that the Catholic church “stopped talking about God because of Marx,” which reveals a profound ignorance of Liberation Theology. A phenomenon of the 60s, pioneered by many renowned Brazilian theologians, Liberation Theology had already faded away in most of Latin America by the time Lula profiled himself against the horizon of Brazilian contemporary history.
US protestant churches launched a massive brainwashing campaign in Latin America starting in the mid-to-late 60s, expanded in the 70s and 80s, openly entering the political field in the 90s and beyond, now becoming a political factor the US can use at will in their manipulation and control of political processes in Latin American countries. Protestants across Latin America have become a US fifth column, their class extraction is mostly poor and working class, uneducated, conservative, and ready to follow like lemmings those who advocate for “principles” that resonate with their brainwashing.
The “Bolsonaro vote” (“…millions of poor Bolsonarists – street cleaners, delivery guys, the unemployed?…”)Pepe alludes to as a “serious problem” is not only a Brazilian phenomenon. Making people turning and voting against their interests is an art the neo-liberals/neo-cons have mastered, one of the best examples was Trump. Living in the Appalachians, in one of the most pro-Trump counties in the US, has taught me how political manipulation and brainwashing works.
The core of the brainwashing is to target the disenfranchised with the idea of a “savior” (Trump/Bolsonaro), a knight in shining armor who stands against large government/corruption/spending/wastefulness, the whole nine yards, all issues the “savior” will address and correct, if they vote for him, of course. Demonization and character assassination is an integral part of the brainwashing, anyone who opposes “the savior” is a traitor, a communist, a homo, any epithet that fits to label them as enemies of the people, the cause, whatever.
Next, billions are spent beaming this campaign out, day and night, to the chosen targets. There is nothing anyone can do before this brainwashing tsunami, one of the main targets are protestants in Brazil or in any other Latin American country, or evangelicals in the US. The results can be seen only years later, as we can see now with the ransacking of the Brazilian economy, the destruction of the Amazon, one of the few lungs left to Mother Earth besides Siberia.
Lula knows the odds are stacked against him. However, he takes the challenge with a smile. He, like Putin, is also a patriot and a warrior. My father used to say, “from the wolf, a hair,” meaning there are situations in life when we need to make do with what we have. Pepe pointed out Lula’s main challenges,
fight poverty;
reconnect with economic development while redistributing wealth;
re-industrialize the nation; and
tame environmental pillage.
Lula has to face those challenges, while surrounded by a hostile (short a few millions) voting population, an aggressive political and military establishment only held back from a coup d’etat by the US and the Dems opposition to having a Trump ally as the head of Brazil. Internationally, politics is currently a minefield, Lula will not have the political space that allowed him to become a political star. His main allies, Putin and Xi, are under attack and heavily sanctioned, any move from Brazil in any direction is being closely watched.
A Sisyphean task?
Only time will tell.
In the meantime, Lula has a lot of work to do, and the shoeshine boy turned master politician and foreign policy strategist, is having another chance at turning Brazil, and the world, in a direction that favors the working classes, the disenfranchised, those who voted against him, short a few millions.
IMHO, Lula’s main task is to show with facts to the Brazilians, again, what a man of the people can do for them.
That will be the best political reeducation campaign Lula can muster.
Lone Wolf
PS: On another note, I am looking forward to an English translation of your round table in Rio, “O Brasil e o mundo multipolar em 2023,” and your conference in Sao Paulo with Amorim, et al, “O Brasil e sua nova política externa,” which from the little Portuguese I can understand, seem to be crucial to understand the new period coming for Brazil, inner and outer. Thanks in advance.
Extremely well said Lone wolf.
So much so that I haven’t even bothered to weigh in with my own comment.
Cheers
Col
What Pepe fails to understand is this Belt & Road thing of China comes with strings attached which enable China and others to plunder or control a country’s assets.
Bolsonaro and most of the people of Brazil know the pitfalls of this.
And China is perhaps to some extent operating as a intermediary in this for the western elites who influence China. Most of China’s wealth and currency holdings comes from (80%) exports to the west and its private sector has massive debt to the west.
So Belt & Road appears to me to be backdoor method for the west to control everyone.
Im sure Moscow knows this as well.
Foreign loans / assistance are always usually a trap.
Regardless of who they are from.
China is in a difficult position as it caught in the middle in the world economy. It has done amazing things since Mao and Deng. If China’s exports to the west collapsed or declined significantly ( US EU) China’s economy would slide and it was expend its reserves very fast and be back to 1980s status within a decade. The risk of this exist on normal eco cycles also exists if US & EU go into deep recession or depression. So China is in a trap too, a hostage of the devils behind the Ukraine situation.
Pepe also presumes Lula will be installed as President next week and given the extent of election fraud that went on there (which he doesnt mention) this may not be the case. Bolsonaro aligned parties made fantastic gains in Brazil Parliament a month ago yet strangely Lula gets elected and in some areas extra ballot dumps show no votes for Bol ? And voting machine irregularities too.
It would appear Pepe is a Lula supporter (which taints this article) and it remains to be seen just what power Lula would have given the numbers in the parliament if he were even allowed to take office.
Belt & Road is only a good idea if the terms are reasonable to the country signing on.
B&R also create problems for independent businesses including non aligned with globalism in the US EU & UK. Its squeezes them out. So for example, Ford or GM wont like Chinese cars being sold under preferential deals in their overseas mkts.
My concern is this B&R inter-dependency is creating a house of cards that will in the end damage those who sign on. Both an economic and a financial house of cards.
Short-medium term benefits for long term problems is not a good idea.
And difficult to exit it if problems develop.
Bolsonaro and Sergio Moro were created by the US, by the CIA, to privatize Brazilian state-owned companies. They are soldiers of the Anglo Saxon Empire. I just registered here on the site, just to answer you, stop you, because you are telling lies. The saker should prohibit Bolsonaro supporters fascists from entering here on the site. Why are you reading this site? Why are you reading Pepe? Knowing that BOLSONÁRIO IS A DESTROYER is the cornerstone of geopolitics.
there is no neutrality in science. Pepe is free to side with any politician he wants. Journalists should have freedom of opinion. Are you just a troll? It is not possible that you have not seen that Bolsonaro became president with his neoliberal minister of culture Paulo Guedes, just to privatize state companies. Bolsonaro is the greatest enemy of the Brazilian people.
Every economy is based on people, on society, on the principles that this society carries. Currently, Chinese people follow universal principles, while Americans and Europeans are lost without spirituality and values. Who are you to question Pepe Escobar’s approach and notes? You are a perfect example here for the site, of the Brazilian middle class, educated, but alienated, who voted for Bolsonaro. It’s good of you to show up here. The Woke ideology arrived in Brazil, but it did not arrive in China. Russia is struggling to defeat the woke ideology in Moscow. Because Moscow is not Russia. Moscow is Atlanticist.
Attacks fellow poster.ZZ
@Santiago
Your post is IMO total tripe and troll-like misinformation from beginning to end.
I won’t bother to go into detail as @geopoliticshas covered it very well anyway.
I wonder how much of China’s purchase of foreign assets is just a way to dispose of excess dollar reserves as a necessary diversification due to the American penchant to seize dollar reserve currencies (such as US Treasuries) from those it considers ‘enemy’.
Given the political circumstances of the last 19 years (in particular since the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff), Lula has been in the national and international news. After the coup against Dilma and his imprisonment, in a clear move by the right to prevent the return of the left in Brazil, Lula is again president for the third time. This cheap sociology that if Lula thought this or that, evangelicals would do this or that, is nonsense from those who disregard the roundness of the ball. In fact, this epic demonstrated that the political animal Lula is the true Brazilian myth. Even against a medieval wave, against everything and everyone, it returns to its aborted place in 2018. As for the mention of Marx, I will pretend that I have not read the plot.
@ Bayarde on December 24, 2022 · at 4:19 pm EST/EDT
As for the mention of Marx, I will pretend that I have not read the plot.
————————————————————————————————
Thank you, Bayarde.
Finally a comment worth Pepe’s time and effort conveying to us a process that is vital for the future of Brazil, Latin America and beyond, for the creation of a new multipolar paradigm. Marx’s ghost will forever scare nincompoops who never read one word of Marxism, they were just told Marx is evil incarnate.
I believe Dilma was a miscalculation on the part of Lula, he trusted too much the establishment he was leaving behind, and Dilma didn’t have Lula’s stature to face up to the jackals and hyenas that surrounded her.
They ate her, and after her, they came after him.
The rest is history.
Hopefully Lula learned the hard lesson, and is able to create a more solid post-Lula platform that can take Brazil out of this political roller coaster.
Lone Wolf
A little too much rah rah from Pepe on this article. If he was actually remotely connected to things here in Brasil, he would not have missed the 800 pound gorilla in the room, at least from this perch in SC.
Something weird is going on now. Corruption investigations are proceeding at the moment, which look at local government spending. No mention on that now huh Pepe? Another thing is government is suddenly unable to get up Christmas decorations until the last minute and due to everybody complaining about it they finally did a little. The investigations and normal public work stoppage came out of the blue.
It also has the feeling here as if things in general, normal business and home investments, have slowed down significantly. There is nothing one can put the finger on but, it is as if everything is slowing to a crawl until the ´money is flowing into the new bank accounts/pockets´ is settled. ;) Everybody seems to be watching for whatever concrete moves the new president will eventually make and how they react with reality. It will not be a renewal, only a refocus
The last strange thing is that there seems to be a concerted effort to keep the dollar from exploding on the real. Noone thinks that will last long. Even PT supporters think that the economy under Lula will take a beating. Something is going to pop down here and everybody just seems to be waiting for it to happen, before they make their moves.
I generally like Pepe but, with this article, I don´t know what the heck he is talking about. Nobody internationally is going to help on this one. Brasil has to figure it out on its´ own terms.
Regards to all, happy holidays.
Another falsehood in Pepe’s article is this inference Bolsonaro has damaged the economy and things are bad – which is the narrative Lula and the global media are peddling since the election.
The opposite is the truth.
Things were better under Bol and worse under the previous leftist administrations.
And what China has been doing has been dangerous, not only to Brazil but elsewhere including US EU etc… where it seeks to buy businesses in foreign countries (which it doesnt need), thereby weakning that country’s future capacity to pay for imports.
Other countries have done this too.
It is a fatal thing for any country to sell capital assets to pay for imports – ie on balance of payments use capital account to pay for the current account on the trade and money flows.
The US has been subject target of this too and why its in trouble. Not only recently China purchases but UK & EU investors have being buying up US businesses for decades. The income streams from that flow back and this is why the US has a massive and continual trade deficit and there’s problems with the US$.
There’s got to be a limit on this for there be stability.
Russia certainly wont allow such foreign ownership or control of its economy and that why its in a strong position.
Nor does China for state owned core industries (it doesnt mind foreign investment in new industries employing Chinese). Japan also wouldnt allow foreign takeovers of its great corporations like Mitsubishi, Toyota, Sony, etc… not would UK or Germany.
Until all these investment rules have been made sensible (nationally sustainable) there will continue to be problems, but with corrupt politicians infesting the US and elsewhere things will not change until they go.
@Santiago
When you say:
“on balance of payments use capital account to pay for the current account on the trade and money flows”, can you give more details about what you mean.
Also, FYI, in the face of uncle Sam having nuked and carpet bombed white, black, brown men and women of the world, survival options become narrower. Economies around the world seem to be on a ticking time bomb. BRI itself doesn’t stop it, it winds the clock periodically.
A troll has no logic, as trolling is by nature, illogical.
We cannot expect a troll to think.
They are now, a priori, blaming Lula for “corruption investigations/lack of Christmas decorations (sic!)/slow down in business and home investments/negative economic forecasts,” etc., etc., etc., as if Lula were already in power.
To All Trolls,
—————
FYI, Lula takes power on January 1st, 2023.
After that, feel free to throw mud at Lula (and Pepe), you can troll your head off.
As for the wingnut Bolsonaro supporters, we couldn’t expect less.
They are all foaming at the mouth, rabidly blaming Lula for everything past and yet to come, singing glories to crooked nincompoop Bolsonaro, and like their US nincompoops partners in crime, calling the “electoral fraud” card.
Lula defeat of Bolsonaro was clear and clean. Full stop.
That doesn’t matter to the butthurt wingnuts, they took their time off from burning cars, blocking roads, and protesting in front of Bolsonaro-supporting military garrisons, to come drop their dump against Lula, making out long-shot arguments without any backing.
They are already warming up for the massive trolling against anything positive Lula would do, domestically or in the foreign scene.
Their job.
To All Trolls/Wingnuts,
—————————–
Enjoy your few days left without Lula. :-)
Lone Wolf
Lula is a member of the World Economic Forum and will sell his country to highest bidder. https://www.weforum.org/people/luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva. I do not think China help Brazil. China helps itself. Just see the case of Spratly Islands and took them from the Philippines. Will Brazil turn a blind eye and be annexed by China? Yes.
“Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. World leaders also affiliated with the “elite” group have congratulated him on his win. His policies will align with other WEF leaders and is a glimpse into what to expect from Brazil going forward. Bolsonaro’s words to the people will not eliminate the anger they feel nor will it prevent the people from continuing to protest.”
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/south_america/bolsonaro-hands-over-power-to-lula/
How can China take the Spratly Islands when 70% of them are occupied by Vietnam?
You are here because you know that your MSM does not tell you the truth about the economy, world affairs etc. Should you then believe the picture China that the MSM has painted for you?
Exactly @littlereddot!
And my word, the trolls are certainly out and about on this thread. (Removed insult ,MOD)
This is a good sign though… especially when their arguments are so completely infantile.
No surprise really. Lula gaining power again is a huge deal, not just within the Latin American sphere, but globally. This is a major blow to the western imperial oligarchy and a huge win for all of the BRIICS+ initiatives… SO FAR!
This makes for an incredibly dangerous tenure for Lula. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the hegemon will move heaven and earth to unseat him.
Cheers
Col
Out of the fascist coerced redistribution regime frying pan of Bolserano and into the fire of the coerced socialist redistribution scheme of Lula. Both keep the man in the street chained to government power, the former feeding the oligarchs and the latter keeping a dependent population feeding bureaucrats while keeping the table scraps. Coerced redistribution of any kind is inevitably the road to serfdom and does not suit a self reliant productive individual.
@Pepe Escobar
Extremely important article. Really appreciate all of your reporting on global politics. Of course, I assume Brazil is closest to your heart.
Like so many, I have been anxiously awaiting Lula’s return to the world stage in official capacity. Latin America needs him. I pray he will be able to re-assume his position with power, even if it takes time. (Tho I think he has only one term left? Can it be extended?)
Your article is not completely optimistic. The destruction wrought by the Bolsonaro project is extreme. You paint heartbreaking dystopian landscapes and describe economic devastation resembling craters left behind by warfare.
Reducing access to education trashes human potential. Reducing the quality of education reduces the population’s ability to think critically.
I assume the “fiscal responsibility” you distastefully mention indicates the neoliberal golden calf of austerity. I put my faith for prosperity, rather, in Lula’s commitment to social justice.
I second @Lone Wolf’s request for english translations of the conferences linked to your article.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
The hedgemon has been busy in Latin America color (de-)revolutionizing. Well funded Law-fare. Argentina. Peru.
Speaking of Corruption, how can Bolsonaro not be in jail? (!)
…Oh, right, only those who have committed no crime, no crime at all, go to jail for corruption.
ON June 13, 2019 in New York, there was an agreement hidden from the regime media between the United Nations (Guterres at the helm and a host of oligarch-funded NGOs, with the WHO playing a central role) and the WEF, read about the most powerful corporations in the world, with Black Rock at the helm. The 2030 Agenda is their business, not ours. Almost all the so-called leftist governments have been captured by the WEF in the name of this transhumanist agenda, even the new Lula government in Brazil: you can only govern if you stick to the Agenda. An Agenda that appears to concern the well-being and rights of all and the protection of the environment, when in reality it hides the hoarding, privatization and financialisation of all the earth’s assets, including water, under the pretext of protecting them, including our bodies and minds and the minds and bodies of our children: graphene mRNA injections are central to the story (graphene enables the internet of bodies, which is a ubiquitous control system: https://www. forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2019 /12/06/what-is-the-internet-of-bodies-and-how-its-changing-our-world/?sh=549e530f68b7 ).
Not a green twist, by the way: The United Nations Agenda 2030 is about monetizing the natural world (currently estimated by the NYSE at $4 quadrillion).
This is the zero-carbon green agenda: we are the carbon they want to control and reduce, we “proles” I mean (to use a term coined by Orwell in 1984), and no regime media will ever talk about it.
Marx speaks of primary accumulation at the basis of the first industrial revolution. This is the final accumulation of all the earth’s goods in the hands of the 1% of humanity. assuming the word humanity still makes sense at this point.
https://gpenewsdocs.com/the-capitalist-solution-to-save-the-planet-make-it-an-asset-class-sell-it/
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/how-the-united-nations-are-quietly-transformed-into-public-private-partnership/?fbclid=IwAR00yEPXA-Br4hgnKr2qCKg6nPvpuUgT0xz1ayOPpyxX8KogXfo9FACLmzU
https://monthlyreview.org/2022/04/01/the-defense-of-nature-resisting-the-financializaton-of-the-earth/
Sorry, this part of the comment is gone, I put it back here: graphene mRNA injections are fundamental for the story of Agenda 2030 (graphene enables the internet of bodies, which is an omnipresent control system: https://www. forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2019 /12/06/what-is-the-internet-of-bodies-and-how-it-is-changing-our-world/?sh=549e530f68b7 ). And so what the zero carbon green Agenda really is: we are the carbon they want to keep under control and reduce, we proles I mean (to use a term coined by Orwell in 1984), and no media, heavens fall, will talk about it never.
here the link of Forbes on the Internet of Bodies: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2019/12/06/what-is-the-internet-of-bodies-and-how-is-it-changing-our-world/?sh=48de85483c2c