by Pepe Escobar for RT
In yet one more spectacular chapter of his running Marco Polo in reverse saga, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a strategic stop in Sardinia, Italy, on his way to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru.
Why beautiful Sardinia? Certainly not for a yacht cruise in the Costa Esmeralda. This is all about, once again, the Chinese-driven New Silk Roads.
Huawei is building its largest European HQ in Sardinia. The Chinese want to buy the port of Cagliari. And fabulous pecorino sardo – serious contender for best sheep cheese on the planet – in powdered form, is already feeding millions of Chinese babies.
As a casual extra bonus “Marco Polo” Xi, on Chinese national TV, exhorted his compatriots to invest in a massive tourist invasion of Sardinia. Now this is what a stimulus package in Europe is all about.
Meanwhile, lame duck President Obama, also on his way to APEC, is in Germany passing the caretaker “leader of the free world” baton to a dear-caught-in-the-headlights Angela Merkel. The headlights go by the name Donald Trump.
TPP six feet under
The sight of an ebullient Xi side by side with a dejected Obama against the background of South America’s Pacific coast will be priceless. Those were the days, in the go-go 1990s, when Bill Clinton ruled APEC, imprinting the American agenda. Now Asia-Pacific has to come to grips not only with protectionist Trumponomics, but also the fact that Obama’s cherished TPP – the mercantile arm of the “pivot to Asia” – is, for all practical purposes, dead.
Trump’s transition team, led by Mike Pence, has advised him to bury TPP (grouping the US plus 11 Pacific Rim nations) for good within his first 100 days in office. And the road map goes still further, advising him to drop out of NAFTA as well if a long list of “concessions” is not met.
Dejected US allies – mostly Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand – who had all been counting on the ascension of Hillary and the enthronization of TPP, are bound to conduct “secret” meetings in Peru aiming at a revised deal. That would have to assume that Republicans in Capitol Hill might agree with Trump having a go at some sort of renegotiation.
Then there’s the – far-flung – possibility of a cut rate TPP excluding the US. The US and Japan account for roughly 60% of the combined TPP group’s GDP. A TPP without the US is another beast entirely.
And that leads us to Beijing’s subtle counter-offensive; promoting the anti-TPP along the lines of the still-under-discussion Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which groups East Asia. Japan and Malaysia, as well as non-Asian Australia – three key players – all support RCEP.
As much as the Trump-China relationship may eventually land on the proverbial stormy seas, Beijing can now be confident that the China-excluding trade arm of the pivot to Asia is history.
Here’s the official spin, via Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Li Baodong; “China believes we should set a new and very practical working plan, to positively respond to the expectations of industry and sustain momentum and establish a free-trade area in Asia-Pacific at an early date.” No TPP; more like RCEP.
All those resets
A new Asia-Pacific trade deal will definitely represent a reset in US-China relations.
Then there’s that other crucial reset; with Russia.
Lame duck Pentagon head Ashton “Empire of Whining” Carter “advised” Trump and his team not to cooperate with Russia over Syria.
He was solemnly ignored.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Moscow does want cooperation. But he also said Moscow does not intend to “persuade the Pentagon leadership to change something in this regard.”
Diplomatic translation: You – the Obama administration – as far as we’re concerned, are dead.
So there will be a reset. It will be extremely complicated, and on a Trumpian deal-to-deal basis: NATO expansion to Russia’s borders; Crimea; US missile defense; color revolution attempts. It will concern all of Eurasia. And it will start with cooperation in Syria.
Beijing and Moscow have concluded that Trump is not an ideologue (in the neocon mould); he’s a pragmatist. Resets are inevitable. Even surprises.
Trump may be inclined for the US to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), heavily demonized by the moribund Obama administration. His $1 trillion infrastructure plan is something that China has already pulled off – starting already in the late 1990s. Ellen Brown has a top suggestion; print money, and build all the infrastructure you need.
An eventual US-Russia deal in Syria would ultimately benefit – who else – China. Mirroring the original Silk Road, China sees Syria as a crucial node of the New Silk Roads, currently cut off. Picture the day in a not too distant future when Xi will be stopping in Damascus to do trade deals. And to call for a stimulus package of Chinese tourists to visit a restored Palmyra.
nice article. thank you for that one. you are right regarding that cheese. its heaven on earth !
god bless
Wary of all those trade deals but welcome it above the last 20 years of war deals. Very much hope the little people can be productive and earn a decent living.
Trump must avoid a total money bank collapse so joining Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank might be that opportunity.
The MSM bereft of any credibility in the wake of Trump’s election victory doubles down on its lies and propaganda instead of retreating in shame:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2016/11/17/facebook-fake-news-writer-i-think-donald-trump-is-in-the-white-house-because-of-me/?tid=sm_tw
http://nypost.com/2016/11/17/i-fooled-america-with-fake-news-stories-and-got-trump-elected/
There is much to laud in these seismic changes in geo-politics. What bothers me is what is staying the same, like patriarchal human de-nature. The illusionist gets me looking at his right hand while his left is carrying on business as usual. The Chinese are buying up everything is sight, including what is left of the US. Trump is the little Dutch boy with his thumb in the dike. Can he counter the Sino Tsunami? Very few thought he could be elected. The US is now the paper tiger while China has become the eagle holding trump cards in its talons. It’s not much of a match between a neutered eagle and a dragon with balls; but that’s what Goliath said before a stone throwing boy hit him like a nut-cracker. If Trump manages to ignite the spirit of American individualism all bets will be reset regarding Chinese communism. Thanks for giving me a ring-side seat to the ultimate fighting championship; oh, excuse me, I mean the new cooperative multi-polar scheme world–oh, double excuse me, I mean the new dream world. Just for the record, I’m betting on the Love Army Honey Beaver, sexual pun intended, with a tip of the hat to Bro 93 for the honey bun.
Pepe the Globalistani pundit. He cannot see that Trump is simply a new, more nuanced version of the same NeoCon vision- Yared Kushner would be proud. And the rest of his Zio kommisars.
Trump is Israel-First. Hence he wants to attack Iran and kill ‘muzlums’ instead of the Hillary anti russian version.
Yes…
It is very clear now that PEPE ESCOBAR needs a philosophy and a history lesson as He should know that NO EMPIRE THIS BIG goes down without a Big BANG !!
WHAT? He really thinks China will be left alone , USA of Israel suddenly Capitulates…. ?
Does he not know Dajjal/Anti-Christ PLANS. …
Door to Tehran goes through Damascus fir the door to Greater Israel….
Take some history classes and dont do it in Universities…
“…no Empire this big goes down without a BIG Bang”!! Really? What about the USSR? It went down into the dust bin of history with scarcely a whimper. The USSR was aguably a bigger in land area and more populous than the US of A today. At the time of its demise, the USSR was armed to the teeth even more than the USA. Go and get a real history lesson.
The difference is that the USSR restructured (Perestroika).
The US may not manage it. It takes skill, luck and a very intelligent, inherently unified population. The USSR had all that.
The ‘Bang’ of the USA collapsing will be several magnitudes greater.
But I think that if the US were to collapse at all, it will implode with a thud rather than explode. And the implosion will be prolonged and not sudden like the USSR. In fact the implosion was clear since the 2008 financial collapse. Why prolonged implosion? That’s because the world is very much less dependent on the US now than since say 20 years ago. A different political-economic-financial system had been established and the US had contained itself out of it. Unless Trump reverses the momentum, the US will become increasingly irrelevant.
“It takes skill, luck and a very intelligent, inherently unified population. The USSR had all that”. The USSR lacked wisedom as in Job 28:28 in the Bible. All nations and individuals need this wisedom. The Almighty is patient, but His patience is not infinite. The USA today is going the way of the USSR spiritually. Unless it reverse course, it is likely going the way of the USSR, dull thud and all. The USA needs our prayers.
What looks to be the dumping of the TPP, is for me one of the best outcomes of the US election.
Also the Australian government rehtoric is changing from being a frontline base in a future US war against China to doing deals with China in the wake of the failed TPP which they have already signed up for.
A long way to go yet but it looks as though the US dollar will now start a fast decline as the sole world trade currency which enables the US to enforce its sanctions on other countries.
What will become of the US over the next few years is hard to guess, but definitely better days ahead for the rest of the world.
December 19 the Electoral College votes on who will be POTUS.
The legal obligation to vote Trump is not particularly strong, while the legality of the EC vote is absolute.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/meet-the-hamilton-electors-hoping-for-an-electoral-college-revolt/508433/
So while there is hope that Hilary’s vision of the future may not be realized, a Trump Presidency is still not cast in the ballots that really matter.
Ashton Carter’s whining warnings to Trump ‘were solemnly ignored.’ Now he has quit. Cool.
Such an excellent post.
SCMP published a article about Chinese surnames. It touched a few thing I have talked about here:
location of Chinese central government at time of Zhao, Lu Xun, marriage for peace, give name to foreigners by the emperor and etc Some one may find it interesting.
The complex origins of Chinese names demystified
http://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2046955/complex-origins-chinese-names-demystified
Correction: location of Chinese central government at time of “Zhou” (not Zhao).
Yeah, Zhou (pinyin spelling) is my forbear. It was a feudal dynasty though.
I am not talk about system here. At the time, feudal dynasty was not backwards system. I was talking about the meaning of “中”. Center, central, middle, geographical, or political. If you look back at comment section of last Pepe’s writing.
Don’t worry J, the Zhou dynasty produced arguably the wisest man in Chinese history – the Duke of Zhou. He inspired Confucius. He propounded on the ‘virtuous’ leader. BTW, ‘virtuous’ or ‘Sian’ is my eldest grandson’s name. I hope he will be as wise as the Duke of Zhou.
China entered feudal system at end of Zhou. So it was a step forward. Zhou Dynasty was also a period all ideas, and literature flourished. Confucius was from end of the period.
What is the character for ‘Sian’?
If I remember, the Chinese character is 贤.
Science flourished too, especially metalurgy and medicine during the warring states period of the Zhou dynasty.
An eventual US-Russia deal will benefit everyone, US included. China will help win the peace with her investments and, like Pepe so succintly said, with Chinese tourists by the hundreds of thousands and multiple millions as inital stimulus. In fact I can see China helping to win the peace in all present conflict areas once the fighting is concluded in one form or another. This effort to win the peace will be crucial because without winning the peace, the war may continue and morph into an even more devastating form.
Are you a Chinese Christian? You seem to be naive about the intentions of the A-Zs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10776023/China-on-course-to-become-worlds-most-Christian-nation-within-15-years.html
Converting didn’t save the North American Indians. Some still live, but not as the People they were. Being Christian won’t save the Chinese from the sinophobia inherent to Anglo-Zionism.
https://briarpatchmagazine.com/articles/view/unrepentant
https://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/08/chinas-christian-future
The worst thing communism ever did, was destroy China’s non-Christian heritage, even as it removed, albeit temporarily, the Western spiritual colonials.