Chomsky quotes Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London:
“They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran, US bombers and long range missiles are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours, the firepower of US forces has quadrupled since 2003”
Castro outlines the pretext for war:
I do not harbor the slightest doubt that as soon as the warships of the United States and Israel take up their positions – together with the rest of the U.S. military vessels located in the vicinity of the Iranian coasts – and attempt to inspect that country’s first merchant ship, a rain of missiles will be unleashed in both directions. That will be the precise moment when that terrible war will begin. It is not possible to foresee how many ships will be sunk nor of what ensign.
They are correct. The purpose of the war will not be to do anything about a non-existing Iranian nuclear weapons program (which everybody in power knows does not exist), but to destroy as much of Iran as possible to punish it for its anti-Zionist stance.
This doesn’t seem like a good time of year to attack. Hurricane season is coming to the Gulf of Mexico. If there is a Katrina like storm combined with a shut-off of the Straights of Hormuz, oil may not be available at any price. Industry would grind to a halt. Under those circumstances the American public would cry uncle before the Iranians do. Any attack between now and October would add an element of risk without any benefit.
Still, I suspect they may be so arrogant as to convince themselves… yet again… that it will all be over in a couple of days, so storm season wont matter.
@Lysander: I have to respectfully disagree. Frist, I don’t believe that the Iranians can maintain the Straight of Hormuz closed for a very long time; the USN and USAF will destroy any force attempting to do so, possible with a Marines presence on the ground in key spots. Second, there are a lot of strategic reserves out there. Third, high oil prices are only a bonanza for the oil lobby. Fourth, a state of crisis/emergency makes people mad and more agressive towards the putative culprit. If 9/11 has proved anything, is that the world is more than willing to swallow the US-Zionist propaganda about who the bad guys are. Lastly, while one (or several) hurricanes can affect the prodution and refining of oil in the USA, the market can compensate for that loss of capacity.
Also – keep in mind who we are talking about: the very same idiots who invaded Afghanistan and Iraq on the US side, and the very same idiots who invaded Lebanon in 2006 on the Israeli side. Their boundless arrogance and hubris totally blinds them to even self-evident facts. They are the most deluded rulers since Hitler decided to invade the Soviet Union…
Cheers,
The Saker
Thanks, Saker.
As to closing the S of H, I had a question. A few years ago I flew out of Dubai and saw what I think was the Iranian coastline along, or near to the straits. What it looked like was very hilly terrain. Perfect for guerrilla concealment. In the straights were two lanes of shipping that were like bumper to bumper traffic.
My question is:
Could IRGC, et all hide in the area and launch simple katyushas in large numbers aimed at the general direction of the shipping lanes, and continue to do so indefinitely?
This is unlikely to sink any ship, but would it not make the area too dangerous for commercial navigation?
Just a thought.
Article claiming that the economic consequences of an attack on Iran would be massive
http://tinyurl.com/27zvrxn
I still don’t believe they’ll be mad enough to attack Iran. If Dubya and Cheney couldn’t do it surely Obama won’t. Then again the Israelis are capable of anything – but they wouldn’t be able to attack Iran without US permission would they? They’d have to use US controlled airspace for a start
robert
@Lysander: yes, there are all sorts of things the Iranian can – and probably will – do to distrupt the traffic. But each Iranian measure can – and will – be met by what I believe could be an effective US counter-measure ranging from counter-battery fire, to Special Forces and/or Marines on the ground, to patrolling aircraft over the Strait, to anti-missile defenses, etc. Now, I might be under-estamating the degree to which the Iranians, who are very smart and sophisticated playuers, have prepared for this contingency. I am not aware of a historical precedent for such a situation.
A while ago I wrote this:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2007/07/irans-asymmetrical-response-options.html
and I wrote The first phase would begin by 2-3 days of combined cruise missile and air strikes. The aim would be to degrade as much as can be Iranian C3I capabilities and, even more importantly, to isolate the Iranian coastal areas from the main command centers and resupply routes. Then, as soon as Iranian air defence capabilities are sufficiently degraded I would see very intense bombardments and strikes all along the Iranian coast and the straight of Hormuz combined with a strong effort to destroy all Iranian Kilo-class advanced diesel attack submarines. I personally expect “boots on the ground” *before* this phase is completed: Marines forces with Navy and Air Force Forward Air Controllers would land on key positions along the coast and surround pockets of resistance. Once beacheads are secured, US Army troops would land heavy equipment and establish forward bases. The end goal of this first phase would be to control (but not necessarily occupy) most (but not necessarily all) of the Iranian coast with the hope to remove the Persian-Arabian Sea lines of communications from a threat of Iranian attack or blockade. This goal would need to be reached within 4-6 weeks to achieve the desired effect.
Once enough counter-battery capabilities are concentrated along the coast (and to a depth of about 10-20km depending on terrain) and once Iranian active/passive detection capabilities are sufficiently degraded, the USA could announce that the sea lanes are safe, open and protected from any further strikes.
I still see that as a plausibe option.
I am afraid that we will know soon :-(
Kind regards,
The Saker
To Saker
I’ve read your article about the perspective development of possible US strikes at Iran. It all looks interesting. I just think of the total elimination of the Iraqi army just within a couple of weeks by the US strikes with practically no losses from the US. Iraq fought with Iran during 8 years pushing back and forth. Both countries had lost hundreds of thousands of people, they had used all means they had including gas and at the end exhausted they decided to stop and call it a win. Both sides. And the States needed just a week or so to completely eliminate one of the sides. Do you think the Iranian army will take a hit differently? The Iranians most definitely will have no chance to cause any damage to the US forces. Iran is no Serbia landscape wise so most probably within a few days/weeks Iran will loose all means to launch any strike at any target be it the Yankees or the tankers. Do you think the Iranians will stay loyal to their government unlike the Iraqi people did to Saddam?
@Anonymous2:
I just think of the total elimination of the Iraqi
The Iraqi Army was never eliminated. It only hid long enougn to let the US in. It is still fighting the occupation today
Do you think the Iranian army will take a hit differently?
Yes, completely. If only because there will be no land invasion of Iran
The Iranians most definitely will have no chance to cause any damage to the US forces
Wrong. The US forces are deployed withing reach in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the Persian Gulf where the Iranians can get them. Also, read this:
http://www.amconmag.com/article/2006/dec/18/00022/
Do you think the Iranians will stay loyal to their government
Yes, absolutely.
I’ve just read this ttp://www.amconmag.com/article/2006/dec/18/00022 like you recomended.
I’m a bit confused. Really, can you take this article seriously?
@anonymous: Really, can you take this article seriously?
Not at all. This is just my bizarre sense of humor. In fact, I believe that the US can crush the Iranian military in less than 24 hours and that the people of Iran will welcome the Yankees with flowers and jasmine rice.