🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian interministerial delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey #Ryabkov arrived in Geneva to take part in the Russian-US security talks.#RussiaUS pic.twitter.com/alcKeAfwdH
— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) January 9, 2022
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey #Ryabkov gave a few comments to the media ahead of the 🇷🇺/🇺🇸 talks on security guarantees:
💬There is a good chance that we will face the 🇺🇸 and #NATO’s unwillingness to understand what we really need
More ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/KtA0CFMPpc
— Russian Mission in Geneva (@mission_russian) January 9, 2022
💬However, we will not make any concessions while facing pressure and threats that are currently being leveled against 🇷🇺
— Russian Mission in Geneva (@mission_russian) January 9, 2022
The series of formal statements now link to Sputnik and that seemingly contains the full content and context. https://sputniknews.com/20220109/russia-will-not-bow-to-us-pressure-or-make-any-concessions-deputy-fm-says-ahead-of-geneva-meeting-1092126786.html
The bargaining position of the US is simple: No.
The bargaining position of the RF is simple: We will do it ourselves. (Take a look at Kazakhstan.)
Next, with NATO in Brussels.
The US won’t do anything until NATO meeting.
The same will be in Brussels as Geneva. “No.” “We will do it ourselves.”
Then, we have OSCE in Geneva. The vassals are restless and want their “say”, too.
So, we may have to wait out all the operettas of Geneva, Brussels and Vienna before it is clear that Russia will be shut out, sent away with its Ultimatums.
Then the fun begins.
I think he has said if nothing serious coes up, this first meeting will be the last.
So I am not convinced in the follow-up meetings.
“Then the fun begins”
Do they even know what’s happen next? I know, they should. But situation is so grave, that no petty byrocrat have xohones to speak his mind.
They wait for Masters to give them orders. As it seems, Masters are still petrified.
Will someone already yell “The King is naked”?!?
At worst, We are all screwed. This means war , hidden war or the threat of future war.
Ruskies are unhappy and I really cant blame them.
If this goes to kinetic conflict, this will turn out badly for the west. Unless they have some new wonder weapon no one knows about.
20 + years in military in combat ArMs and Intel.
I tell you now…. The Russians have all the advantages in the short term.
If they hit hard and fast before NATO can build up forces. They will win the day. Overwhelming fire power and mass are on there side since the zone of conflict is near their area in influence.
We shall see
……The Russians have all the advantages in the short term. If they hit hard and fast before NATO can build up forces…….
I agree. Then why is there so much pomp? Even though they should have done it a long time ago. The US is pushing them to be themselves, to have someone to talk to in Europe, but it will not give the Atlantic vassals that Gorby’s “red bourgeois” oligarchy cries for. If they are determined, Russians can take what they need, seek neutrality for Germany. Everything else is a weakness. Fairy tales about being expelled from the swift and expelled from the UNSC are based on the interests of the oligarchy. Russia is a country that can give ultimatums, but not the ones that should have been demanded thirty years ago, but an ultimatum that will shake the world’s underpants. If they get guarantees for Ukraine where there will be no NATO “de jure”, but in reality NATO “instructors” on the ground and weapons “de facto”. Russia will only buy again time for the same people who keep it in a semi-colonial stance till today.
That is a simplistic view of the situation and it is more complicated than that. Does it spill over to Asia? What will China do? What do Iran and North Korea do? It is more of East vs West than Russia vs US, IMO. US is the only center of gravity in this conflict and rest of them (West) are all vassals.
“Unless they have some new wonder weapon no one knows about…”
It’s called good sense, and about the only thing that would save their sorry asses, but nope, none of that anywhere on the horizon. As such, there will have to be a bloodied nose or three, but hey, no one can say they weren’t warned. And frankly, in what other way will these types learn?
Having said that, it’s a joy to see the well-oiled Russian military machine in operation, like smooth flowing poetry
in fact.
I think you’re spot on. The West simply doesn’t understand that others might have interests too.
The western populace is becoming restless. Let the ‘haves” learn their lesson at home.
In my opinion, the Russian Federation does not have the luxury of fighting on Russian territory. The principal arsonists in the US/UK must feel the burn, each of these “deciders.”
It would be more accurate to say that the West simply doesn’t *care* whether others might have interests too.
Do you think Israel will let ‘a good crisis in Western Russia go to waste’, and not take advantage to light the Middle-East tinderbox on fire?
“The vassals are restless and want their “say”, too.”
Seems the herlots, I mean helots, of course, cannot miss an opportunity to please their on his deathbed creepy domme, Uncle Schmuel.
Iskanders now aimed at the loathsome targets…..me thinks…
This to my mind touches craziness.
The answer probably is no! And fanning the flames in such a manner is irresponsible.
amarynth
Well, Russia is dealing with a psychopathic bully. And when you combine this with the fact the Russia has a redline…..You know, at some point in time….
Perfect! It is scary! Conflict of interests. West versus East. End of the championship. We must already be preparing for the worst. You’re? It’s not a sweet romantic movie in a cute afternoon session eating popcorn. It’s the collision of two titanics. Crossroads, dead end happening by “coincidence” in the context of a planetary pandemic !!!
well …he sounds the guy for the job. Good fortune for it all….keep the headache pills and beta blockers handy for USA will give anyone headaches and try to increase the frustration levels .
Wonder who is in the rest of the mission…….hold on to your hats its going to be interesting….a rollercoaster….or…….?
.
“I can say that that…the demands of the United States and other NATO countries that we carry out some ‘de-escalation measures’ on our territory are out of the question. This is a non-starter in the literal sense of the word. If the Americans want to talk about changing our approach, for example, to the Minsk Package of Measures [on peace in Ukraine] or even stutter about something like Crimea, this also has no chance for discussions,” Ryabkov said in an interview with Russian media on Sunday.
Ryabkov Rocks!!!!
The attempt to distract that was the recent upheaval in Kazakhstan has come and gone. Like a gambling addict, the West tried one more throw of the dice. Snake eyes.
The ultimatums remain. Get off our doorstep. Will the West listen? Probably not. And then? Good question! I guess we’ll see.
No more games. If USA/NATO insists with its famous “drag our feet diplomacy”, well then the screws will be tightened ever so harder till the USA/NATO squeal.
https://sputniknews.com/20220109/russia-has-not-been-thrown-off-balance-by-us-tough-position-on-security-guarantees-moscow-says-1092135168.html
“Moscow Won’t Stoop to Discussing NATO Demands on ‘De-escalation Measures’ on Russia’s Own Territory”
“I can say that that…the demands of the United States and other NATO countries that we carry out some ‘de-escalation measures’ on our territory are out of the question. This is a non-starter in the literal sense of the word. If the Americans want to talk about changing our approach, for example, to the Minsk Package of Measures [on peace in Ukraine] or even stutter about something like Crimea, this also has no chance for discussions,” Ryabkov said in an interview with Russian media on Sunday.
A good headline, as well as a good principled position to start the negotiations. Ukronazis are probing LDNR on three fronts, and being repelled in all of them. We can be sure they will do something to call attention and cry wolf while the negotiations are taking place.
https://avia-pro.net/news/vsu-predprinyali-masshtabnoe-nastuplenie-na-doneck-srazu-s-tryoh-napravleniy
They will try all tricks taught by their puppet masters to launch a false flag of sorts, or try provoking Russia to react in the direction they expect. A military-political ambush, an asymmetric trap. Russia is far beyond any childish game Ukronazis and their masters might play this late into the game.
Russia’s goal is clear, they need security guarantees, in writing, and if they cannot get them at the negotiating table, they will by any means necessary. Rolling over 404 is one of the many options, that doesn’t mean negotiations end. “Talk-talk, fight-fight,” a Vietnamese contribution to the Art of War, is an integral part of any fruitful negotiation with arrogant, stubborn opponents.
Lone Wolf
Can we bet which NATO base will enjoy Ayn al-Asad experience first?
We can. I say none. The mountain shook, a mouse was born.
In Ayn al-Asad, the mountain did shook, and 110 mouses got traumatic brain injuries.
@Blackring
Somewhere in western Ukraine, maybe where there’s an airfield onto which weapons are brought for the nazis.
A salvo of Kalibr missiles fired from the Black Sea near Odessa.
Breakup the runways, blast the NATO flags, set fires, blowup the stored ammunition.
Followed with a message to Brussels with a map and routes from Ukraine, Romania and the Baltics back to the west European barracks.
The moral rancidity of the shit-stain Biden Administration on full display…
The stench is overwhelming…..but what would you expect from a Nation in the throes of extreme moral dissipation….
Is Joe Biden’s bedpan a portal to Hell?
In the meantime:
all caps .. statement removed .. mod
Dear Mod
I am listening to Tchaikovsky 1 again…and it induces the caps reflex in me brain…
Putin/Russia have their answer written in BLOOD as to what US care for their Security. Best thing they can do is cordially withdraw from next week’s meeting citing a State of Emergency on their southern Border.
Upon resolving and after a full investigation they can convene US/NATO meetings at a later date, possibly presenting evidence of US/UK complicity in the Kazakhstan attempted coup d’etat.
Can US/NATO now agree to withdraw Forces from Russia’s western border while attacking their southern border. Doesn’t make sense.
Time to release hell on these American sociopaths and their satrapies.
The west shall remain defiant.
“No” shall be the answer.
For the western elites, Russians are still subhumans like in 1941.
No matter what concessions Russia would make it would be continuously under attack. That is the western way.
So, these negotiations are useless.
Russia has made a stand for its security and sovereignty, and need to stay strong. It has made its proposal for two treaties. Let’s see what are the counteroffers from the U$A and NATO (the Financial Empire) this week. Based on the initial news and posturing, the Empire is narrowing the discussion to Ukraine and some limits on its military movements to buy time and strike back later, not addressing Russia’s security frame – Muddling Scenario. What are the probabilities of an Escalatory or success scenarios?
Ryabkov, has clearly stated that Russia means business! It will be great if Russia will make the U$A’s proposal public. ““We fully expect that the Russian side will make public comments following the meeting on Monday that will not reflect the true nature of the discussions that took place,” said one senior U.S. official who will participate in the talks.” Let’s see what happens tomorrow!
Ryabkov defined the Russian position clearly on various topics in his conversation with the CFR. He comes across as a great diplomat who is straightforward in conversations. This CFR conversation clearly defines where Russia is going. The Empire has met its match!
https://www.cfr.org/event/us-russia-relations-conversation-sergey-ryabkov
“Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears”
Look up at the masthead .. what does The Saker blog stand for?
STOP the Empire’s war on Russia.
Those that are jonesing for war, must kindly bloody hell contain yourselves. You are idiots, and you have never been to war! Wait, consider, we will have a decent analysis. The real analysts are slow to present their work. They are waiting and considering and do not get involved in the talk before the talks too deeply.
Gather the information, please comment on what you have gathered here, but hold the slogans and the memes, and we will get to where we need to get, and that place, God Forbid, is a war! Nobody wants a war, except the jonesing population that thinks it is for their excitement.
We may see today the NO but we have not seen the NYET!
Thanks, amarynth.
Armchair “warriors” believe reality is like their PlayStation games, have no idea what a conflict of this kind entails. Nobody in their right, sober mind, should be advocating for war. Saker leads the way praying for peace, we should all do the same, no matter which religion. And if you don’t have one, throw a wish to the Universe, No War!
As Aikido teaches, nobody can predict how a conflict would end, once started. Avoiding conflicts, and the promotion of war, is the path all decent human beings should walk.
Lone Wolf
What is the Sphere of Influence all about?
Russia needs assurance of security from cruise missiles launched so close the Russians will have to decide to launch a massive counter, maybe tactical nuclear warheads, also.
So, to clear East Europe, not just Ukraine, Russia has stated it demands a secure sphere of influence.
It will settle for a neutral Ukraine, and neutral others, like Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Finland, the Baltics.
Russia doesn’t want them in with an EAEU. It wants them out of NATO.
So, the issue is military security.
And it is a military standoff. Missiles and B-61 nuclear gravity bombs stationed close to Russia, too close.
If talking doesn’t move them, kinetic power will move them.
It’s not wishing for war.
It’s understanding the issues.
No nation as important as Russia can allow a punk-ass alliance like NATO to threaten them.
It is quite simple.
The threat has to be removed.
@Larchmonter445
I agree in general with your assessment. Nevertheless surgical decision making is worlds apart from jingoism.
I’m not sure who said it, that the best Generals and military commanders loath war. This has been the American downfall. They love “bombs bursting in air”. They are addicted to war.
@ Larchmonter445
“…The threat has to be removed.”
Agreed. I see no contradiction between our positions. If you read my first post before this one you’re answering, you might have a clearer idea about my views on the upcoming talks. A quick reading of the posts above amarynth’s can give you a hint about why he posted that comment, and about my subsequent comment on his post.
A sample here,
“…Time to release hell on these American sociopaths and their satrapies.”
Is their a way you can compare Russia’s goals for this negotiation, with such a disparate comment? I believe the Russians have a strategy by which they will acomplish their objectives, and that is not the destruction of the “American sociopaths.” So far, we have not seen the Russians making any rash decisions in their foreign policy, all of them are measured, coldly calculated, aiming for a peaceful solution when possible, and when not, there you have Syria, with taqfiris blowing to bits, for years now.
The commonplace Clausewitzian maxim “war is the continuation of politics by other means” is central to Russian foreign policy, and for Putin, an acomplished strategist, seems to be a rule. Saker highlights all the time (I would put “all the time” in caps, but I can’t), the importance of politics in the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West.
I see the two platforms Russia presented to the West along Sun Tzu’s maxim ““The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting,” as these are negotiating platforms. And I cannot visualize Russia moving into war on Jan. 15, after the US/NATO have refused their requests. There will be many steps before we can see any signs of conflict, if at all.
As Saker says, “Miracles happen,” and we need a “miracle” with capital M.
Lone Wolf
PS: Whatever happens, we cannot stop the warmongers from salivating about their next PlayStation game with the Russian S-400/500 shooting F-35s all over Russia. The reality of war, however, is a serious matter, and thanks God Russians see it that way, they have 30 million souls to answer for.
For exactly those reasons friend Larchmonter445, understanding the issues, commenters must contain themselves in their expression and not shiver with excitement. (In private I refer to weewee running down legs in unrestrained abhorrent excitement but that is not for public consumption !) The risks here for removing the threat, are not insignificant for the whole of this blue marble that we float on.
I am no proponent of war, but as Capone said:
“You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone”
We are undoubtedly at a very dangerous crossroads here and Russia cannot bluff.
Unfortunately, if the USA et al call Russia’s bluff, I feel we are in for some level of conflict, what that will entail is anyone’s guess
If Russia were to back down (especially after their unusually resolute ultimatums of late), I suspect that they will not be taken seriously again (not without military action to bolster the ubiquitous pragmatism).
Powers Boothe put it as well as anyone ever has in the original (only) Red Dawn.
“Two toughest kids on the block, I guess. Sooner or later, they’re gonna fight”.
Sadly, I fear this is where we are.
Did you forget the words of Saker andrei? Did you forget andrei said he was a pessimist? Andrei owns the blog. Let’s not be presumptuous. I agree with what andrei saker has said so far. It is not possible to be optimistic about the current reality. Every reading and approach of the moment shows us that we have reached the end of the street. One of the two sides will lose. The whole question is: if Russia won’t lose, will the US accept losing? Let’s put our emotions aside and accept the fact that we are in a historic moment, and being pessimistic is what andrei and martyanov have already shown, the very hard reality.
……Nobody wants a war, except the jonesing population that thinks it is for the excitement…..
Sorry but this is not true. The facts on the ground deny you. Americans have no war at home even though they have been at war for years. I did not see anyone destroying their houses, properties, families. Or let’s say the English. They muddy the water wherever they go, others die. There will be no war between the Anglo-Americans and the Russians, just possibly with proxies. What is the need, to sort things out in Europe. And I don’t think we would be here today if things were handled the way they should have been a long time ago. So we will continue to pretend so that some new generations die?? To maintain comfort beliving that the Nazis will find enlightenment on their own and become better people? Has the same thing ever happened in history to refer, or has God always used other people to show the first ones where they belong? Russia repeats the same mistake and expects another result. Why Russia, if it wants to be a power in “this world”, does not make similar moves on their doorsteps proactively, but reacts to something that these two set as a condition for her? Nor have they learned in Europe what war is. This is the fourth generation that does not know how to assemble a rifle, but knows how to pay taxes to “bosses” and applaud when others are bombed? Let me remind you that Britons or Americans or Europeans do not live badly. Although they live offensively. Although enough money goes into the patents that drive this colonial world to this day? Did God punish them to suffer like the people all around world do?
Yes, there’s no doubt about it that The British Establishment still have the zeal of Cecil Rhodes, happy to shoot you in the face to protect their delusions of Empire.
I’ve said for decades that in order to overthrow the Uk/US ruling class (CRIMELORDS ), it would be necessary to disqualify anyone standing for Parliament/Congress/Senate who attended Oxford/Cambridge – Harvard/Yale & other Criminal/Financial/Spy Breeding Grounds.
@djole.
“Did God punish them to suffer like the people all around world do?”
One should take care not to become so arrogant and self-righteous in one’s injury as to question God. It is folly to demand the Universe mete out punishment in severity and timing according to our flash-in-the-pan firefly-on-a-summer’s night insignificant human existence?
Consider Great Britain, which colonised so many countries destroying their culture. Now see how the descendants of the “wretched of the world” have overrun Britain and destroyed its culture and heritage, turning it into a virtual third world nation except for the international banking kleptocracy keeping it afloat.
The mills of the gods grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly fine.
Peace. Belief in God is not weakness but strength.
@amarynth
Amen!
There is really no need for war right now. Even if the talks this week do not bear fruits, there are still many steps that can be taken by Russia and others to help the West wake up to reality. War should be a last resort decision.
Thanks to all, and especially to the Saker and the moderators, for keeping this blog useful and relevant.
Peace to russians, chinese, americans and all people in the world.
Thank you, amarynth. I was beginning to despair at the pant-wetting excitement displayed in some of the comments at the prospect of war.
Putin, Lavrov, Xi, etc. have been struggling to negotiate a peace by which all can exist. Blessed are the peacemakers.
I always thought Bush/Cheney/ Rumsfeld and Al Qaida were ideologically cut from the same cloth.
By the same token, those gleefully hankering for war on this site are kith and kin to the American war machine. Don’t kid yourselves boys: You are not on the “side of the good” by any means.
I agree. However, realistically one sees that there is little likely option other than war between Ukraine and Russia.
Any war beyond that, however, risks nuclear war, which I’m sure Russia will make every effort to avoid. Then the issue devolves to how stupid and reckless the US and NATO elites are. We can expect that they will not involve themselves in the war in Ukraine. But whether they will agree to Russia’s demands is the issue. Because if they don’t, and Russia has to extend its countermeasures, then the issue becomes what happens in the future if there is some reckless effort on the part of US/NATO to counter those measures. At the very least, we are looking at a reprise of the Cuban Missile Crisis in that situation.
I agree that any notion of Russia unilaterally attacking US/NATO assets in Europe, no matter how threatening, is unlikely. Russia will limit herself to deploying countermeasures. But it’s when the counter-countermeasures are deployed by the West that the risk escalates. We avoided that in Cold War 1.0 because the US outspent the Soviet Union. That same resolution may not occur in Cold War 2.0, even if the US economic situation continues to decline.
One thing we might hope for is that the combination of China and Russia might be sufficient to contain US reckless moves. Against that is the possibility that US elites become desperate enough about that containment to make reckless moves.
We shall see is the best one can say. But I agree advocating any sort of Russian first strike – conventional or otherwise – is ridiculous.
Yes Amarynth,
Never forget when it gets to the worst ” There are Hands that Safe ”
OM
Waist of precious time…Rus.
Mother will never ever bow down to evil.
Glad that the coming nuclear war will erase all traces of mankind on mother Earth.
Nuke ’em to the stone age.
I would love to know The Saker’s view on this theory:
The Kazakhstan Gambit (the use of color revolutions to your own ends and goals):
Objective: Russia to remove all western influence in Kazak Government, instill Russian sympathetic human infrastructre in Kazak Government, direct policy changes to remove western oil interests in Caspian Sea, secure other natural resouces (uranium), secure Baikonur Cosmodrome
Outcomes: Greater Russian influence and control of major strategic corridor (BRI-Silk Road), leverage with China, removal of western oil/gas companies, under guise of CSTO take informal control of Kazakhstan without international sanctions, removal of a potential “ukrainian/georgian style vestering wound on border”.
Process:
a. Promote idea of free market LPG (no caps) == known public outrage (problem)
1. Let a known and planned coup erupt (color revolution) in Kazakhstan taking advantage of legimate public grievances (reaction)
2. Offer aide and support via CSTO, secure all key infrastrucure in Kazakhstan (solution)
3. Promote and support stability and safety (Putin the Peacemaker) (solution)
4. Remove Atlanticist leaning leadership from Kazak Government
5. Set stage for talks with USA on Ukraine by providing evidence of Western sponsored influence in Kazakhstan
An interesting idea to secure Kazakhstan with minimal blowback yet increasing prestige for Putin and Russian Government.
Josph Borrel’s latest statement…summary of Ulraines importance and EU’s contributions and inzistence on being included in any talks….
https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109462/eu-support-ukraine-and-security-architecture-europe_en
And Blunken today too
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/09/politics/antony-blinken-russia-ukraine-cnntv/index.html
raking up their version of history
“He said the US was prepared to discuss certain measures such as arms control and the scope and scale of military exercises but stressed that they must be reciprocal with Russia. He ruled out discussions of pulling troops from eastern Europe and guaranteeing that NATO would not expand to include Ukraine.”
For example, he said, “there may be grounds for renewing” the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, from which the Trump administration withdrew and which the U.S. accuses Russia of violating.
Various viewpoints here
https://sputniknews.com/20220106/us-will-not-agree-to-all-russian-security-proposals-compromise-possible-political-experts-suggest-1092068462.html
Statement from nato
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said the alliance had warned Moscow to stop its belligerent foreign policy and start cooperating with the West, otherwise it would face a “military alliance hardened for war.”
Johnsons Russia List today (Jan. 9) has Ryabkov’s press conference, and a slew of Atlantic Council extremist statements to back Blinken’s hard line — which Biden has always followed in times past.
There’s a very good article by Anatol Lieven, explaining:
This U.S. counter-proposal should contain two interlinked elements, founded on the idea of reciprocity: The first is a renewed U.S. commitment to guaranteed autonomy for a demilitarized Donbas region within Ukraine, and a public commitment to make Ukrainian agreement to this a condition of further U.S. aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration has recently signalled some real support for Donbas autonomy (which after all has been U.S. official policy since 2015), but it needs to act firmly to bring this about. The Russian quid pro quo would obviously be the withdrawal of Russian armed “volunteers” from the Donbas, the disarmament of the Donbas militias, and the full recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas.
The second U.S. proposal should be a Ukrainian treaty of neutrality, ruling out military alliance either with the United States and NATO or with Russia. Once again, this involves reciprocal concessions by both sides. This should be accompanied by a military standstill agreement, whereby the United States and NATO promise to station no additional forces in new NATO member countries in return for a Russian promise to deploy no additional forces in Kaliningrad, Belarus, Transdniestria and Crimea.
If agreement along these lines can be reached between the United States and Russia, then both Ukraine and America’s European allies will have no choice but to come on board. Demands from Kiev and Brussels to be involved in the talks themselves should however be firmly rejected by Washington. Due to its deep internal divisions, the Ukrainian political establishment is incapable of agreeing on any reasonable position vis a vis Russia; while the EU is incapable of agreeing on anything at all when it comes to external policy.
Involving them in the negotiations will simply be a recipe for making the entire process hostage to elements opposed to any settlement at all: Ukrainian ultra-nationalists and historically embittered Swedes, Poles and Balts.
Lieven is smoking something very strong to be so delusional.
“a Russian promise to deploy no additional forces in Kaliningrad, Belarus, Transdniestria and Crimea.”
Kaliningrad and Crimea are Russia. They can “deploy” 2 million more men. It’s nobody’s business within their borders.
Belarus is part of the Union State and Russia already had to threaten troops to keep the Ukies and Poles out of Belarus during the color revolution. So forget that one also.
Transdniestra is being talked about (Kozak was just dealing with Moldova). The Russians aren’t about to surrender it and they have no intention of adding troops there. Logistical support is very difficult now.
As for Donbass disarming, you would have a complete genocidal massacre in short order.
Never going to happen. Like in Never.
I agree. Levien is one of these people who roll over and put their paws in the air and piss all over themselves in desperate efforts to ingratiate (thanks to William S. Burroughs for the imagery) in order to avoid having to confront the reality that the US isn’t going to do any of those things. It’s cognitive dissonance for these people. They can’t handle the fact that the CIA and the neocons and the hard-line nationalists are calling the shots in Ukraine – so they don’t. They’d rather believe that the US will just agree to whatever notions they think will solve the issues.
To quote Percival Rose in the CW TV show “Nikita”: “That ain’t gonna happen.”
If it does, I’ll go back to not posting about foreign policy again.
@Michael Hudson
I admit upfront that I don’t have the knowledge on the local strategic situation @Larchmonter445 demonstrated above. As such, I will restrict myself to talking about the general situation.
I think it is clear to everyone that the process of negotiation is about making clear what the red lines are which one will not negotiate at all, and what are those things one *may* agree to offer as concessions. This process is not in general fast, since both side have to “feel” what really are the other side’s red lines. The things that are initially nonnegotiable may, in the process, change to accommodate some gain in other parts. In a serious negotiation, both parts would search for accommodations so that both sides win. I think Russia is very competent on this, and would be willing to make concessions on things that upfront may be nonnegotiable. The points @Michael Hudson listed for an agreement are reasonable for a start, even if the final points are not exactly those. The negotiation process would determine what the final points are.
The problem here is that one side, the US, doesn’t seem to be able to realize its true strength, thinking it is negotiating from a position of power. Russia has been very clear on what it wants. I agree with @Michael Hudson that Russia will not negotiate directly with Ukraine or the UE. This should be a process between Russia and the entity with real power, the US. NATO and Ukraine can have their voice heard, but would not be directly involved in the negotiations.
The US Department of State has, for the last couple of days, written dozens of tweets stating that no decision on European Security would be taken without Europe, that the first meeting tomorrow, jan 10, will not be to discuss Ukraine, only some arm control issues, that NATO is a defensive (not offensive) alliance, that NATO never promised that it would not admit new members or that would not expand to the east. Ok, maybe this was to build their initial position. Since this directly conflicts with what Russia asked, I’m not sure how this bodes for the start of the negotiations. I’m not familiar either to diplomatic protocols to know if this is bad, or can ne worked out. I’ll have to wait to see.
What I find interesting is that, besides those tweets, Blinken has spoken to two different american TV networks. These interviews were also tweeted:
https://twitter.com/StateDeptSpox/status/1480239195146928134?s=20
https://twitter.com/StateDeptSpox/status/1480228613932953607?s=20
In both, the US said it is waiting for Russia to say if it chooses the diplomatic way, or the confrontational way (in which case there will be serious consequences). In the second one, he reaffirms that the russian demand that the US rules out the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO is not negotiable. Again, I don’t know if this is just posturing, or if really is a red line (if it were any country other than the US, I’d say is a red line, but…).
The interesting part is that, soon after *both* tweets with the interviews were made, the twitter account @Russia, which is listed as a russian government organization, tweeted a video of a tiger looking in a condescending way to a nearby cawing crow:
https://twitter.com/Russia/status/1480145044745170947?s=20
If this had happened only once, I would say it would be coincidence (and I initially didn’t pay attention to it). But it happened a second time! Both times were a couple of minutes after the two tweets above from the Department of State. I think this was on purpose to show what Russia really thinks of the american verbal incontinence. Again, I don’t know how significant this is, but it looks to me pretty significant, since it was Blinken speaking, and not a lower level person (it is also interesting that when I went back to my twitter account just now to check these tweets, the tweet with the tiger was not in my list anymore, although it still is in the timeline of @Russia).
Anyway, I’m really not sure what will be of the negotiations tomorrow, but the tweet with the tiger is kind of intriguing. What I do think is that the world is watching these events closely, as well as the events involving Kazakhstan. The speed and efficiency that Kazakhstan was able to control the coup seems to show Russia had their back pretty solid. This certainly is an eye-opener to other countries in Eurasia, as was the american flight from Afghanistan. I’d say most countries in Eurasia will be much more confident in repressing attempted color revolutions.
It looks like Russia is in a quite strong position, and it only remains to be seen how the US will deal with this. Even if the negotiations this week fail, I think time is on Russia side. I don’t think there is a need to a hasty or drastic response by Russia. If the US doesn’t want to negotiate, just go back to plan B (whatever it is; I’m sure Russia has plans B, C, D, etc), turn the heat some more on the US and the EU, and wait. We’ll see what will happen.
My opinion, only.
Hello all,
I did something today I have not done in a while, I wrote a reply to the opinion on the Washingtonpost regarding Russia on their front page. One of the things I wrote was that the only hopeful sign I see is that Sec. Blinken´s mannerisms, comportment and facial expressions, are telling me he knows it is over. He doesn´t have any leverage and he knows that he is beginning the process of giving Russia everything it needs. There is no escaping this. What do I see a matter of hours later? Statements from Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov publically confirm my suspicions.
What exactly is going to take place only God knows. My sense of this is Russia will give it a go here and if there is no indication that these people get it, then she will start removing pieces from the playing field. I would be surprised at if it were outright removal of assets in plan view such as missile systems in romania ( although that is coming ) but, people in powerful places and things of value will start to be eliminated from
positions from where they can cause harm. That said, I will not be totally surprised when it starts. It has been a long time since Pristina airstrip and who can blame them.
I wish well to all.
John
It will likely be logistics what would be hit…. informational, material, etc..
Dear all, I agree with the good judgement of all the commentators of such a good and precious forum, which I have been following almost daily for eight years.
The question I ask everyone is why not choose a small, subtle, graceful and elegant show of force, exercised with mercy, which leaves no doubt about Russia’s power and no doubt that the West has no way out?
And then they sit down and sign the document which has been so generously given to them.
I really do hope that USA/NATO say NO. Because YES will not really mean yes. It will mean that things will get dragged out, the bullshit will continue. If USA/NATO say NO, the USA empire will collapse sooner. That is a good thing.
that is what I am also thinking… But this is choice how mercifull Putin would be – something to be known only to millitary/elite or it would be made very public so that media would not be able to hide it? I bet on the later as threaty was published in rather humiliating way to the USA
Whatever the final outcome of such turbulent times, I only hope that the end will be Good, Just and Beautiful. I imagine that Jesus, our Lord, would be overjoyed if we finally found the peace we have sought for two thousand years now.
https://open.spotify.com/track/3iHmlCJuKriIdHl7EhBLPZ?si=3a348ebf6f2d4ee4
Juan
>…” why not choose a small, subtle, graceful and elegant show of force, exercised with mercy, which leaves no doubt about Russia’s power and no doubt that the West has no way out?
I think you saw exactly this in recent days in Kazakhstan.
The mobilisation of Russia with its allies was watched by every military (and armchair generals) on the planet.
Anyone who really knows what level of training and expertise is necessary to achieve what the Russians just accomplished is impressed, and some (should) be greatly alarmed.
Join in “for thrills on Jan12 Nato meeting?
The Secretary General’s press conference will be streamed live on the NATO website, broadcast live via satellite (on worldfeed), and made available after the event on the NATO Multimedia portal. A transcript of the Secretary General’s remarks during the press conference, as well as pictures taken by NATO photographers during the events will be available on the NATO website.
Also there will be a press conference on Jan 10 after a meeting with Stolenberg and Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba .
NATO Foreign Ministers held an extraordinary virtual meeting on Friday (7 January 2022) to discuss Russia’s continued military build-up in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security….We are always ready to listen to Russian concerns and NATO will make every effort to find a political way forward. But for dialogue to be meaningful, it must also address Allies’ long-standing concerns about Russia’s actions. It must be based on the core principles of European security and it must take place in consultation with Ukraine. We are also consulting closely with other key partners, such as Georgia, Moldova, Finland and Sweden, as well as the European Union.”
I’ll bet the Kremlin and Military of Russia are shaking in their boots about all these meetings and pressers and transcripts stuff.
Stoltenberg certainly has Gerasimov’s number.
Brilliant stuff from Brussels.
Keep us informed.
Laughter is curative.
No one cares what the EU poodles and NATO thinks – let alone Ukraine. They can “consult” with anyone they want. The only people who matter are the US and Russia. And China since it backs Russia.
There is only one outcome that avoids Cold War 2.0 and an escalating risk of WWIII – the US backs down and accepts Russia’s demands, starting with Ukraine.
And again, “that ain’t gonna happen.”
Emotions are running high, warp speed from one end of the spectrum to the other, anger, rage, fear.. We all, who have been awake and following this horror shit show brought to the world decades ago just need closure. We need either peace or war. We want justice done for the innocents however it happens, we just need an end to the nightmare. And war may be the only way unfortunately. The fear bleeding out of the empire’s minions is so thick you can almost taste it, after what they have done, the lies, money wasted, the endless dead, there will have to be an accounting for the genocide, and I think they fear this most.
The sun will raise tomorrow, it will be another day, let us all hope for the best.
I truly hope that the West realizes just how powerful Russia and its allies have become. You just have to make some concessions to Russia after seeing how lightning fast and cleanly Russia took care of the crisis in Kazakhstan.
A shark circles its prey for a while before attacking. I think the shark likes to watch his prey squirm a little bit first.
Clearly the United States has been far and away the main provocateur and aggressor in this tortured relationship with Russia over the last eight years since fomenting the coup d’etat against the legitimately elected government in Kiev. It has lied incessantly about events while Russia was pointedly insulted and treated with the utmost disrespect by not only President Obama but by his every successor and every other candidate for his office as if civility had no role in American foreign policy any longer. It has levied an endless array of economic sanctions for no other purpose but to damage Russia’s economy. It has expelled a legion of Russian diplomats, seized Russian property without compensation within this country and demanded American businesses cut ties and end joint ventures with Russian counterparts. It has concocted the most wild-eyed and heinous accusations, always without the slightest shred of evidence, that Russia has poisoned its own expatriots around the globe, aided and abetted Syria in gassing its own people in a civil war fomented by the United States, and wantonly shot down a commercial jetliner over Ukraine, just to mention a few of several such outrages, clearly all of these fantasies being false narratives which would benefit Russia not in the least and for which no logical motive was ever even proffered.
The extremist regime in Kiev, ostentatiously modeled after Hitler’s Third Reich, has been armed to the teeth by Washington and encouraged to persecute the very sizeable ethnic Russian populations within it borders in what can only be described as “ethnic cleansing.” The data say that at least 14,000 Russian civilians in the Donbas region have been murdered by such action over the course of the last eight years. The Kiev government signed an agreement with, NOT Russia, but Berlin and Paris, called the Minsk Accords, which promised to grant the Russian ethnics in the Donbas, NOT independence from their onerous rule, but merely election of their own governors and some modicum of home rule. Kiev, always applying American ethics, morality, and bad example, chose to welch on its sacred word and, to this very moment, refuses to abide by its promises.
For all this and more, Russia is constantly made the villain in an endless escalation of threats and slanders by the barbarians who rule from Washington. Clearly, any fool can see that Washington is trying to slowly but surely strangle the Russian state as a sovereign nation peopled by honorable and noble citizens, just as we hapless Americans, victims of our own leadership, are made to suffer. The US is fooling no one, not even its vassals in NATO, by saying one thing and doing another quite diametrically opposed to its empty contentions. The ruthless regime in Washington, wager of numerous bloody “forever wars” across the globe, is the absolute epitome of psychological “projection,” in which it accuses others of the very sins for which it is guilty. Behold, the biggest “meddler” in the history of geopolitics has the gall to condemn Russia repeatedly for “meddling” in our elections, and yet be unable to offer the slightest bit of convincing evidence!
Obviously, the leadership of the United States of America (whomever that may truly be) does NOT want peace and good relations with Russia. Clearly it wants WAR in some form. It has already been wagging an economic war against that country with its never-ending series of “sanctions.” If Washington is still able to utter any statements that reflect any semblance of actual truth, please clue us in during this “last chance for peace.” Exactly what it is they think they want, because it is clearly NOT peace! Have the decency to apprise your own citizens and the rest of the world (because we will ALL suffer from your actions), exactly what it is that you are trying to extract through maximum application of pain and deceit to the Russian state and its people. Be sure and tell NATO as well, because I see no evidence that they understand in the slightest what they are signing on for if they go to the wall to enforce your depraved will. Maybe it’s a small distinction, but you are not “gods,” you are monsters.
I had never heard of Ryabkov until very recently, but I must say I’m impressed. A different character from Lavrov, but man does he have a pair of balls. He is out there dealing it hard.
It seems the concussion of the Cold War is happening right now. On Russian Christmas (Jan 7) Lukashenko said that 2022 will be the year of joining nations into unions. He said that we wanted to see Union State to include Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, and Ukraine. I would love to see it come to pass, personally.
What a time to be watching geopolitics, history as it happens. I really appreciate you Saker for providing us this lens to watch the big show.
Long live the Union State – my blessings from America
I hope Putin, Lavrov and the Kremlin appreciate the low caliber and intelligence, the sheer ignorance and incoherent thought processes of the people sitting across the table from them on the US side.
The sleeping can be woken up by a good shake. No need to set the bed on fire.
Here is an interview of Col Douglas Macgregor by Aaron Maté. Fortunately there are rational people in the US with a great grasp of history. Unfortunately no one in power is listening to them – yet.
https://youtu.be/zkYgXQo2aQs
There is more to this than meets the eye. Russia has allies and they have been working in conjunction behind the scenes for some time; when you are going out to tame a snake you go after the head which is the US. First the Russians and its’ allies throw some spanners into the US financial hub and build up on their military capabilities then you throw the ‘enemy’ not an altimatum but you give them a choice, “back off and these are your options or else”. Now the talks begin which is just a formality and complies with the UN Charter; Russia won’t fold and the US is getting weaker by the hour and that leaves NATO. Doubt that the EU citizens would accept the fact that NATO has jeopadized their lives and livelihood and subjected them to a ‘turkey shoot’.
Whatever faults Putin may have one cannot deny the fact that he gave the West ample opportunities to make good and come clean.
I very much doubt that anybody has a shooting war in mind. What I believe the Russian negotiating position amounts to is: ‘back off or we will deploy a range of new military technologies that will bring the adults in the room to the negotiating table when they realise the situation they’re in’. A realistic assessment of the actual strategic situation is not to be expected from the cartoonish political animals who are supposed to run the show. Their responses are quite predictable. But sober minded military professionals will surely come to recognise that treaty negotiations are the only way to achieve American strategic security. My sense of things is that the weapons about to be deployed by the Russians are aimed at America, not just Europe. The Kremlin is not interested in talking to Nato or Europe. They aim to engage the Americans in the kind of negotiations that will become unavoidable once the gravity of the situation they face settles in. Again, the political animals will grandstand as they always do. Real negotiations will likely start quietly and without fanfare, perhaps even secretly. The present ultimatum issued is part of a medium and long term plan of proceeding. I very much doubt that anything dramatic will happen as a consequence of a Western ‘no’. Again, I believe that what is actually being negotiated is the deployment of the array of strategic weapons that Putin unveiled back in 2018.
“My sense of things is that the weapons about to be deployed by the Russians are aimed at America, not just Europe.”
Or aimed at American orbital assets. The fact that Russia shot down one of its own defunct satellites recently was not by accident. It was a demonstration that the first response to any suspicious launch of American missiles can be a pre-emptive extirpation of its entire satellite fleet, both military and civilian, essentially blinding American attack and defensive capabilities. Some of these capabilities, including the mysterious US Airforce X-37B space plane, may well be offensive weaponry. That craft could easily accommodate a large hydrogen bomb. Perhaps they only land it back on earth every couple of years is to keep it in good working order. Any number of other satellites might well carry smaller nuclear EMP weapons designed to take out an entire country’s electrical grid essentially permanently.
I’m sure both the US and the RF have such weapons and would be motivated to use them or lose them early on in any unlimited kinetic war between the two countries. What else would Trump’s new military brainchild, the US Space Force, be tasked with early in such a conflict? I think the first salvo in an honest-to-god unrestrained war between the US and the RF would manifest itself, after an initial flash and boom, as everything suddenly going dark, quiet and still (as even surface vehicles stall out and planes fall from the sky) and staying that way until the city-killer nukes start eliminating all military assets and human habitations of greater than about 100,000 people throughout the Northern hemisphere. Both sides may offer the other a chance to surrender after the first skirmish, having been returned to a medieval state of technology. Knowing the parties, neither would capitulate and both will be reduced to neolithic capabilities, along with the challenges of a nuclear winter and intense radiation lethal to all life. The collateral damage will extend to destroy all or most of civilisation in the Southern hemisphere as well. Even extreme preppers will not be ready for this. If ET’s are real, they may acquire the ravaged Earth as a fixer-upper property. If not, the top of the food chain will probably be filled by a few species of extremophile archeons.
Anyone who thinks that confining the war to front lines and trenches, ala WWI & WWII, is just kidding themselves. Human survival will depend upon Washington restraining itself from going gangbusters on Russia–and setting off a chain reaction such as described above–when the RF responds to Kiev’s mad attacks on the Donbas or perhaps even Crimea, as it has warned. That would be asking a lot of the proven lunatics amongst America’s Neocon population. Can Washington control its own self-destructive instincts even if it truly wants to do so? I hope so, but am not convinced, as mass killing comes so easily to it.
My prediction: talks will collapse the first day.
I don’t see how any other outcome is possible. The US is simply incapable of doing what Russia wants. The US can’t pressure Ukraine to follow the Minsk Package of Measures because Ukrainian hardliners will force Zelensky out if he tries. The US might try to convince Russia that it will pressure Ukraine to do follow Minsk, but then dither for months as it becomes apparent Zelensky can’t deliver. Then Russia will be even more pissed – unless they already know that is going to be the outcome, which is quite likely. In either event, Russia will have to take their own action.
As for the rest of Russia’s demands, without a resolution of Ukraine they’re mostly irrelevant. Ukraine is the number one threat to Russia (along with the US strategic weapons in Poland and Romania.) The latter can’t be dealt with except by US promises after Ukraine is dealt with.
The only way to deal with Ukraine is to get the US and NATO to agree to a UNSC Resolution prohibiting Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO. The same applies to US strategic weapons in eastern Europe. That simply isn’t going to happen. Any US “guarantee” is worthless as Trump proved. Any US law effort will be blocked in Congress. And for that matter, the US will simply ignore any USC Resolution.
And in the middle of all this, I still say the CIA and neocon game-plan is to provoke Ukraine to attack Donbass, thus starting a war with Russia. At which point, the negotiations will evaporate in any event. The negotiations are just to stall for a little more time until that plan can be activated – which basically depends on events and the weather in Ukraine.
In other words, this whole business is a farce on a par with the JCPOA negotiations which everyone knows aren’t going to result in the US returning to the JCPOA and lifting sanctions. It’s delusional to think otherwise.
Creio que não veremos tiros no primeiro momento, a coisa começará no espaço.
Não me sai da cabeça aquela salva de Zircões, só um alvo reconhecido…
Essas coisas estão lá em cima, circulando, prontas para imobilizar uma série de comunicações.
Provavelmente o primeiro aviso será esse…
Depois, alguns mísseis de onde saem as comunicações com submarinos nucleares elas são conhecidas…
Se, depois disso não houver conversa, um ataque do tipo EMP onde as redes elétricas irão embora, coisa pontual, nada de matar ninguém diretamente, o próprio pavor da falta de energia e Rede fará isso muito mais eficientemente…
Quem sabe, também, Petrof & Boshirov cortem alguns cabos de fibra óptica oceânicos…
São inúmeras possibilidades, qualquer General de poltrona tem suas armas e estratégias.
Estou só e tão somente, também conjecturando…
Que Deus nos guarde todos(as). 😉
Is it too late to start a “Fair Play for Russia” committee?