by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
According to Ursula von der Leyen – President of the EU Commission – Europe today keeps buying Russian oil just to “deny Putin an even larger war chest” by preventing Moscow from offering such EU-purchased oil to the world market and “profiting from soaring prices” (?). Actually, the undisputable Law of Supply & Demand dictates the exact opposite So any stand-up comedian worth some salt would have found a better excuse. What Ursula von der Leyen should readily admit is that Europe will keep buying Russian oil for decades to come because of sheer self-interest. Europe cannot possibly avoid needing Russian oil and will not substitute it in any significant amount simply because the EU has no choice and no options no matter how it is diced or sliced. This article explains why and proposes an effective no nonsense solution to stop the coming European energy debacle. Early this century this was foreseen and planned out in thorough depth according to former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder´s philosophy and policies which led to a clear and sustainable European strategy for energy sourcing and growth through strict association with Russia.
Dear Ursula
It is crystal clear by now that sanctions on Russia work against the EU and that the Ruble is stronger than ever, not weaker. So then, why more sanctions ? Some people wonder if the plan is to impose the Mother of All Suicides upon Europe. Others think that you are unfathomly incompetent. Or is it something else ? Public opinion needs to know. The fact is that Russia today keeps earning ever larger amounts of money from oil sales – even at discount prices – to friendly countries like China, India or Greek STS (Ship-To-Ship) loadings which you cannot possibly stop. But Russia also benefits from the higher price that you induce by promoting day & night an immediate EU Russian oil ban which would tremendously shrink the volume offered to the EU by the only remaining vendors thus ruining the supply side of the EU oil price equation. So it is you that´s prompting the higher oil price allowing Russia to actually sell less oil but making FAR more money just as EU close friend US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen had predicted.
Ref # 1 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Export-Loophole-Runs-Through-Greece.html
Ref # 3 https://www.rt.com/news/555989-eu-russia-embargo-explained/
Ref # 4 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Germany-Expects-Oil-Embargo-Decision-This-Week.html
Ref # 5 https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14010303000623/EU-Explains-Absence-f-Rssian-Oil-Embarg
happily married
Long ago, large fuel-consumer yet very fuel-poor Europe (Franz) married super fuel-rich Russia (Natasha) and together soon happily parented plenty of babies that have now grown-up and crave for Natasha´s delicious food.
So the whole European über-successful export-based business model was conceived, designed, built, operated and developed on the basis of the cheap and plentiful ´Russian fuels´ premise. That is why every EU government has repeatedly failed to find the architectonics — let alone effectively construct — a realistic energy strategy that does not depend exclusively on Russia´s capability as an EXTRA-ordinary and reliable commodities exporter, most specially fuels. Europe´s economic success has always been based — and continues to be — in having available abundant high quality Russian energy with the enormous advantage of smooth Druzbha pipeline 24x7x365 door-to-door delivery.
Ref # 7 https://www.rt.com/business/556051-eu-new-gas-pipeline/
no options
Hereinafter please find out why Europe has no choice other than to keep importing lots of Russian oil & gas.
It´d be technically impossible to do otherwise requiring a minimum of 20 years at probably more than twice the price, or even far more if the required monumental investments are priced in. Today, on the one hand we have the current Russian Urals blend oils which shall be briefly described herein. On the other we can now only have unknown Baltic oil blends that cannot be described because they do not exist and quite possibly may never exist, at least as needed. Actually, the only effective possibility would be to build from scratch ad hoc matching refineries and other chemical plants in order to accept still-undefined and most difficult to process Baltic oil blend feedstocks. You read it here first…
Ref # 8 https://www.pck.de/en/
energy security
Energy security involves complex interactive underpinnings which demand a clear and well-focused mindset. Accordingly, below please find a short list of requirements for European oil imports (90%) today mostly sourced in Russia and without which Europe would cease to exist as we know it with some countries becoming failed states.
For logistical reasons, the list below should later be expanded and adapted to the specific location of a given facility and/or other individual needs. A leading case in point would be the Schwedt Refinery as the largest in all of Europe and with a most special make-it-or-break-it importance as explained later. Without a fully functional and constantly well-supplied Schwedt Refinery, neither Berlin nor the immense surrounding Brandenburg state are viable… nor would the Berlin international airport and very large areas of Western Poland survive as they are today. I kid you not.
So banning Russian oil imports into the EU just for Schwedt would require modifying at least 3 Baltic ports + adding lots of complex new infrastructure + full modification of the Schwedt Refinery… with no guarantees it´d work out okay.
Ref # 10 https://www.rt.com/business/556059-europe-permanently-high-energy-costs/
Polish dependecy
What comes next should sound unreal or nonsensical. Well, it´s probably both because engineering, economics, and even politics are fully against this Russophobic bananas ideology of unnecessarily trying to ban superb, cheap, fully proven, Russian oil delivered 24x7x365 on-demand in unlimited quantities by a modern door-to-door Druzbha pipeline
So now such Druzbha volume would have to come from several different sources, not just one. And that is why both the Gdansk port (Poland) and Wilhelmshaven port (Germany) are needed to supply the Rostock port terminals in Germany which, on their own, also need to be significantly modified for unloading larger inbound seaborne batch deliveries. Today, only Rostock berth No.3 is apt but very small, and enlargement of handling equipment & storage is also needed. Besides, the Rostock port pumping terminal to the Schwedt refinery pipeline ( both also to be modified ) needs to be serviced. But still Rostock terminals require to receive yet more volume from Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk + elsewhere yet undefined. So that means that both of these two Baltic ports in turn also need to be modified to receive and store larger imported seaborne batches… and also to deliver adequately to the Rostock terminal through special dedicated facilities to avoid contamination. But that would still not be enough to substitute current abundant and continuous Druzbha volumes so additional inbound deliveries of oil feedstocks into Rostock are needed from yet other sources via inland waterways + rail + heavy-duty roads and also into Wilhemshaven and Gdansk terminals… and even directly to the Schwedt Refinery. Clear enough ? A gloriously unnecessary logistics nightmare mess of sorts…
Just as a simple and very limited example – there are plenty more coming — the announced EU ban-Russian-oil plan now would have Germany dependent on Poland´s Gdansk port performance and only after the required modifications are made as they should be. Having a direct Polish dependency as a single point of failure 101 is the very last thing that Germany wants, leaving aside Poland´s territorial ambitions on Western Ukraine which would mean upholding its own priorities, not Germany´s. For example, right now Polish President Andrzej Duda has made public his resentfull disappointment accusing Berlin of breaching a deal to replace tanks that Warsaw sent to Kiev. Now do Germans at large know about any of these arrangements for the Gdansk port in Poland and the Russian oil that their Schwedt Refinery needs ? Will German people access the contents of, for example, my 3 specific articles on this topic giving intricate details of the direct and tremendously negative impact coming upon their livelihoods real soon for absolutely no reason ? Did any of them vote for Ursula von der Leyen ? Who exactly will be held responsible for this debacle ?
Ref # 11 https://www.rt.com/news/556023-poland-germany-disappointed-tanks-ukraine/
Ref # 12 https://www.rt.com/news/556083-germany-poland-accusations-tanks-ukraine/
requirements
definitions + reservoirs + investments + price + quality + quantity + delivery + refinery feed + refineability + matched & mated + first-hand SKovacs + vendor references + length of contract + compliance + HR Human Resources + financing + 11 pending projects + final comments
definitions
Please get used to the fact that Russian Urals oil is always simple, easy, direct, understandable, decades-proven, fully vetted, no nonsense, smooth door-to-door modern Druzbha oilpipe on-demand continuous non-stop practically unlimited delivery , 100% reliable, homogenous, no risk, foreseeable schedule compliance, etc. etc. A beauty…
Also, on the contrary, please accept that anything related to Unknown Baltic oil is wishy-washy-iffy, does not even exist, it will mean an engineering-chemical-logistics nightmare that does not bode well, and which will probably and necessarily be heterogenous with batch to batch variations, etc. etc. Below we shall also refer to the Schwedt Refinery the leading case as the largest and most politically important refinery in all of Europe.
- Russian Urals oil = fully-proven decades long all-around compliance, is an EU special mixture of heavy sour oil from the Ural and Volga region mixed with light API oil of Western Siberia per 9.8 Nelson Complexity index
- Unknown Baltic oil = to be batch delivered at 3 possible different Baltic ports ( two in Germany and one in Poland ) most probably a discontinuous and/or unreliable feedstock of non-viable and/or variable-quality non-Russian blends, from yet unknown & unvetted vendors requiring nightmarish plant process modifications.
the Schwedt Refinery – a leading case
Schwedt is the largest refinery in Europe, a monstruous troglodyte so big that only T-Rex Russia can feed it, trust me.
The 2023 deadline means that ALL of Europe should now be doing the same as the Schwedt Refinery. Impossible.
Otherwise, rushing the Schwedt Project would be for showcase purposes only. Still, beware because it should also fail
reservoirs
Russian Urals oil = enormous, well-known, geologically & physico-chemically stable reservoirs, reliable, well studied.
Unknown Baltic oil = unknown, experimental mix from ocassional “beach-front bazaar” vendors variable in time, not well coordinated. Venezuela oil, not good. Middle East oils, not available. Will North Sea supply ALL of Europe ?
In a nutshell, the world wasn´t anywhere nearly prepared for an EU ban on Russian oil… or other Russian fuels…
investments
Russian Urals oil = NONE, zero, perfect as it is, fully amortized, constant excellent proven performance, fully vetted.
Unknown Baltic oil = 11 (eleven) new projects, please see details below. Very expensive with pending financing and uncertain results, even with a very complicated project at Poland´s Gdansk port facilities. Way behind schedule in any and every sense as it would take the 6 announced months just to get the paperwork started, let alone bids & contracts & sub-contracts awarded. Start-up date maybe deep in 2023. This item is a clear indicator both of (a) the poor strategy followed and also of (b) the enormous TIME that this messy mess would require if ever finished. This is so lengthy and cumbersome that it will be explained below necessarily at the very end under the “11 pending projects” chapter.
PRICE
Russian Urals oil = cheap, unbeatable, un-subsidized, already fully amortized facilities, un-expensive operation
Unknown Baltic oil = unknown, but definetly FAR more expensive with terrific freight, logistics, and final delivery costs.
Not low enough – let alone very high prices — means disrupting the EU and the world with inflation beyond imagination
The unit price would not include pay-back amortization or the many huge investments / modifications / reforms made.
Also an EU Russian oil ban would tremendously shrink the volume offered to the EU by the only remaining vendors thus ruining the supply side of the EU oil price equation. The much lower the supply, the MUCH higher the price.
quality
Russian Urals oil = proven, fully vetted high quality homogenous blend, low in sulphur, light- intermediate API gravity.
Unknown Baltic oil = UN-known, clumsy totally limited sketchy game plan to find new well-coordinated set of suppliers with huge logistical problems. No Pre-Feasability studies let alone full-fledged, thorough Feasibility studies with written duly signed Report prepared by internationally-acknowledged consultants. A lower oil quality means poor performance and operational risks with serious breakdown troubles and injuries plus down-time probably beyond repair.
quantity
Russian Urals oil = unlimited, smooth, on-demand, almost immediate door-to-door delivery thru the Druzbha oilpipe.
Unknown Baltic oil = (?) Chances are that there is no enough volume available, not even in Africa, let alone Iran. It´d also have to be “incremental” export volumes beyond current production for two reasons: one would be potential growth in EU demand and the second reason is that no vendor will leave traditional customers abandoned high & dry just because the EU has now gone bananas. Furthermore, these contracts could might all turn out being short-term ephemeral un-sustainable ´purchases of convenience´ without continuity to be dropped the instant the EU´s “ban Russia´s oil” stops dead in its tracks for plenty of good reasons and thus discarding this nonsensical idea altogether. Not enough and well delivered quantity means degraded European livelihoods and failing economy, with shut down plants and refineries affecting transportation, heating, hospitals & schools, military, government, private business, massive unemployment, etc. Politicians are illiterate in the language of physics… and geology also for that matter.
delivery
Russian Urals oil = cheap, clean, proven,safe, indefinite non-stop 24x7x365 smooth door-to-door Druzhba on-demand pipeline delivery, just one phone call away from saying “send us more”. Today the Druzhba pipeline elegantly, silently, and reliably delivers the extraordinary Russian Urals blend to German satisfaction and in huge open amounts while the Schwedt refinery processes and distills to perfection without any need of modifying or retrofitting anything…
Unknown Baltic oil = only seaborne batches with discontinuity risks re shipping lanes, piracy, weather, lack of tankers, Suez Canal & vessel size limitations, piracy, warfare, labor conflicts both on board and/or on the docks /berths, draft issues, not enough water depth for Suezmax oil tanker in the Baltic Sea channels and ports. What capacity should all the terminals have vis-á-vis the renewed pipeline to Schwedt ? Nobody can know yet thus worsening timing demands.
No batch system in the world no matter how well designed and built is comparable to a door-to-door pipeline.
Tankers have a costly service life if only for the regulation/inspection requirements. So they are a higher risk and higher cost. Also with negative seasonal availabilities of hydrocarbons and shipping vessels types and sizes which means lots of negotiation, coordination, funding, expertise, risk, new fixed and variable costs and surprises from yet unknown trade and business partners, new procedures, modus operandi, brokers, insurance companies, etc., etc.
refinery feed
Russian Urals oil = door-to-door Druzbha pipeline, smooth, well-proven, guaranteed, no weather, no delays, nothing.
Unknown Baltic oil = complex and risky feed from seaborne batches unloaded after coordination with the three Baltic ports (Wilhelmshaven and/or Rostock and/or Gdansk – Poland) plus yet undefined transfer process to Rostock terminal plus dedicated storage and further handling at Rostock terminals for yet-undefined transfer process to the Rostock-Schwedt pipeline still to be revamped and upgraded for final delivery to Schwedt. Lots of moving parts…
refineability
Russian Urals oil = efficient, reliable with excellent guaranteed performance for decades in this Schwedt CPK Russian Rosneft-owned 233,000-bpd facility per Nelson Complexity Index of 9.8 allowing to refine with excellence a range of products including petrol (gasoline) diesel, aviation turbine fuel, LPG, extra light heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, benzene, toluene, xylene and sulphur. The Schwedt refinery needs to keep working always with the same excellence.
Unknown Baltic oil = fully unknown, risky, requires carefull constant testing of all-around refinery modifications (details on that later) adapting internal processes to new yet Unknown Baltic oil blend required to remain constant for at least 30 years, preferably 50 years. No data possible yet. Lots of work yet to be done. Refinement process jeopardized, final distillates quantities and qualities unknown. Politicians do not understand the language of chemistry either.
matched & mated
Refineries are very closely matched and subtly calibrated to very specific and foreseeable supply feedstocks which are also very difficult to substitute and with great uncertainty regarding the final outcome such as in this case. Changing anything either on the refinery side as well as on the feedstock requires lots of time, effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, mistakes, trial & error, specific expertise, risk, and most important fixed, unchanging feedstocks always complying with specs. Substituting the quality and humongous quantity of Russian oil feeds has never ever been attempted. It´s not a “plug & play” substitute. It´s not like dog food you can change at will.
This means that Russia today supplies Europe with specific Urals oil that would be almost impossible to get from unknown third parties fast enough and cheap enough in enormous quantities. A very delicate and tight matching has already achieved between European facilities and reliable and vetted Russian oil vendors and other inputs that cannot be altered or replaced, let alone all at the same time (!!) or else… So another factor is the “sudden death” moment, no possible easy-does-it slow and smooth transition phasing out the Russian stuff one at a time and gradually phasing in our new whatever stuff… It´d be like trying to change a tyre as you keep driving without ever stopping the car okay ?
Ref # 13 https://www.ifo.de/en/node/69417
first-hand SKovacs
Many EU refineries have been built to process certain types of oils found in Russia. The very design & build of these refineries was based on certain specific oil types within narrow variation in blend/quality and steady supply — variation normally of less than 15% vol/day — guaranteed for over 30 years (most commonly 50+ years). Obviously enough, the continuous supply of quality feeds is critical to the operation of a refinery or any chemical plant.
complications
Adapting an EU refinery to new types of oils requires detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend with constant composition and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. before it can be declared “done”. Any element of this incomplete list, if missing, renders the whole affair a failure both technically and economically.
guarantees
The above assumes guaranteed efficient and continuous shipping and receiving network(s) are always in place and fully operational (!) Such work involves thousands of people, complex processes and of course many billions of euros, regulatory permitting process, inherent lawsuits etc., i.e. A LOT OF TIME – years ! A Europe now deprived of oil&gas + metallurgical coal from Russia — and also iron ore — is unlikely to build much. Never mind the finer components that require other alloy metals which are also provided by Russia… Ref # 14 https://10.16.86.131/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
vendor references
Russian Urals oil = proven, well-known, fully vetted, close-by, one-stop, well “oiled” 6-criteria compliant vendor.
Unknown Baltic oil = new unknown, unvetted, experimental, not-coordinated, variable, probably a changing group of partial vendors, with never well-coordinated and changing business associates at every stage of the project from the well-head to Schwedt Refinery. Located far away possibly with a “beach-front bazaar” structure, necessarily with seaborne delivery only, shipped by a yet-unknown fleet too small for purpose with several single points of failure..
length of contract
Russian Urals oil = 50+ years, Made-In-Russia will be missed.
Unknown Baltic oil = can´t know, but for decades-long contract requires mammoth reservoirs such as Russia has
compliance
Russian Urals oil = already 100% compliant, up and running smooth like a finely-tuned Stradivarius violin
Unknown Baltic oil = all compliance pending, approval takes years with plenty of EU bureaucratic requirements starting with ISO 9001 (manufacturing) + ISO 14000 (environmental) + ISO 15000 (laboratory analysis quality) approval of which starts only AFTER full design and complete specifications are satisfactorily concluded and internally approved for submittal to EU regulators. EU´s Green Deal spirit and wording must be complied with., same as other EU Common Policies in force. And always working with safe and ecofriendly practices. Environmental impact assessments have to be completed, presented, approved, permitted and commissioned. Also any strikes or labor union problems and issues would have to be fully avoided, with 24 x 7 activities no week-ends, no Christmas.
HR Human Resources
Russian Urals oil = 100% contracted and working fine: operational personnel, field hands, staff & management, etc.
Unknown Baltic oil = probably the WEAKEST link with tons of people missing with yet to be defined job descriptions, yet to be interviewed, hired, trained, teams put together, deployed, etc. etc. Current operational and maintenance + staff & field personnel would probably demand being switched to other jobs… or will drag their feet… or would simply resign thus necessarily compounding the problem to unchartered depths. New, young, inexperienced hands do not help under these circumstances. Many oldies will be called back from retirement, read my lips. New managers and all sorts of office & field personnel from logistics to IT contractors, welders, etc. will not even be hired by December 2022.
financing
Russian Urals oil = NONE needed, zero, no new projects or investments just normal operational & maintenance costs
Unknown Baltic oil = ??? many many dozens of billions of euros need to be financed for these projects. Banks agree ?
11 pending projects
Russian Urals oil = NONE, zero, just deliver the goods and collect the Rubles
Unknown Baltic oil = Summary of the ´Krautensuiciden´ agenda per 11 pending projects
The Schwedt Project faces 11 highly challenging, simultaneous & parallel projects all to be executed in 6 months (?)
All forcefully mind-boggling modifications to adapt it to new and fully unexpected non-Russian feedstocks.
- Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk : dedicated storage + equipment for frequent inbound seaborne batch deliveries
- Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk : dedicated logistics for outbound deliveries to Rostock port storage terminals
- Rostock : berth revamping for larger seaborne inbound oil tankers from Wilhelmshaven, Gdansk or elsewhere
- Rostock : dedicated storage facilities + handling equipment for larger, more frequent seaborne batches
- Logistics for internal delivery via inland waterways + rail + road inbound to both W. + R. storage terminals
- Rostock port – Schwedt Refinery: pipeline upgrade & revamping + modifications to receive Rostock feed
- Schwedt Refinery: new oil feedstock definition, testing and vendor selection, approval, certification & contract.
- Schwedt Refinery: retrofit and revamping modifications per Option (3) described herein later.
- Schwedt Refinery: enhanced storage facilities + handling equipment for large deliveries from wherever
Actually it´s 11 (eleven) simultaneous projects just to MAYBE have a lower-rated substitute of what Schwedt already has today… only that at a MUCH higher price… plus the high cost of all the unnecessary 11 simultaneous projects which will require lots of negotiation, coordination, funding, expertise, risky modifications, new fixed and variable costs and surprises from yet unknown trade and business partners, new procedures, brokers, insurance companies, etc.etc.
- 95% completion is not enough, only 100% is satisfactory
- Everybody else in Europe doing the same things at the same time with the same deadline (!!!)
- Schwedt Refinery has to necessarily perform exactly the same as today
- The Schwedt refinery is majority-owned by Russian state-owned company Rosneft not very eager to refine non-Russian oil. So a legal “solution” needs to be found, possibly outright confiscation = TIME
- + (2) Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk ports require new dedicated storage + handling equipment for (supposedly) frequent inbound seaborne batch deliveries that need to be downloaded onto dedicated storage tanks while awaiting for delivery to Rostock port oilpipe terminals. Such facilities do not exist today. Neither associated logistics and related systems, yards for either trucks or train freight to Rostock port oilpipe terminal for final delivery to Schwedt refinery. Trucks, trains, heavy-duty roads, rails, offices, IT systems, etc. also required.
Wilhelmshaven is a large deep-water well-furnished port apt for inbound seaborne batch deliveries located some 400 km. away from Rostock port by land and 1000 km away by boat which is not anywhere “close-by. Gdansk is an equivalent and alternative well-equipped port but located in Poland some 600 km. away by land. Still, Gdansk would need to undergo improvements similar to Wilhemshaven adapting to Rostock new needs.
- + (4) Rostock port : is a not-fit-for-purpose port with only tanker berth No. 3 which accepts crude oil so handling & capacity is now very limited and thus also needs upgrading and retrofitting of equipment plus dedicated facilities including storage, handling and delivery capabilities. Also, Long Range (LR) 2 vessels
are the maximum size accepted by this Rostock berth, thus limiting crude unloading volumes by each vessel.
So Rostock needs berth redesign and revamping for larger seaborne inbound oil tankers coming from Wilhelmshaven and/or Gdansk or directly from yet unknown oil vendor from overseas. Also required are dedicated storage facilities + handling equipment for larger, more frequent seaborne batches + batches received from Wilhelmshaven and/or Gdansk plus delivery systems to oilpipe terminal for final delivery to Schwedt refinery. Such facilities do not exist today. Rostock may also even have to partially supply other
key refineries such as Leuna (Leipzig) and Plock ( Poland). Can´t make this stuff up…
- Additional logistics infrastructure for internal delivery of oil batches from elsewhere via inland waterways + rail + road inbound to both Wilhelmshaven + Rostock oilpipe terminal for final delivery to Schwedt refinery.
- Rostock port terminal to Schwedt Refinery: 200 km. pipeline upgrade + revamping on a partially-buried heavy structure built with obsolete materials and technology commissioned in 1963 and already repaired many times. The pipeline trace goes through highways and urban areas represented by very opinionated politicians. Also goes through pristine environments, rolling hills, valleys and ridges, forests, rivers, lakes, home to fish and wildlife with strong winds, rain and snow. Most probably unable to be “pigged”-inspected properly or meaningfully.This 60-year-old Soviet-era structure most probably cannot be revamped or retrofitted or pressurized as needed by 21st. century standards. Lots of skeletons hanging inside many closets after several decades, now to be opened. Still needs to be 100% functional with 60% increased flow-rate capacity
- Schwedt Refinery: new oil feedstock definition. This means to find, negotiate, plan for, test, approve, certify, contract & schedule fully compliant Russian-oil substitutes which should not be discontinuous and/or non-viable and/or variable-quality blends.This would also require yet unknown vendors to duly coordinate amongst themselves (?) to continuously deliver constant huge quantities and quality of Baltic oil exactly per required and contractually agreed specs. Batch-related problems to be expected, not comparable to pipeline feedstock.
No batch system in the world no matter how well designed and built is comparable to a door-to-door pipeline.
- Schwedt Refinery: retrofit and revamping modifications per Option (3) which means to modify every single internal system and process for a new blend of different non-Russian oils… machinery, engines, etc. — everything powered by fuels really — for individual, specific not-interchangeable non-Russian oil substitutes which would all be slightly different at the very least and expensive. and with no possible “toggle switch” to convert from one type of non-Russian oil blend to another. No meaningful contamination possible !
So it´s the case of a forceful life-long linkage between one group of vendors and their supposedly constant, homogenous and very large oil deliveries, which would be different from other groups of vendors and their supposedly also constant deliveries made to other EU refineries different from Schwedt. NO interchangeability is possible. So each refinery would need to have it´s own specific oil blend, which means separate, isolated, dedicated storage and delivery means. In sum, this Option (3) means to fully and definitely modify/retrofit all the Schwedt Refinery´s internal processes to enable the refinement of non-Russian oil blends which would now be received from multiple yet unknown experimental vendors that would supposedly continuously unload batches at the Wilhelmshaven & Rostock & Gdansk ports terminals in the Baltic Sea. The switch-over procedure by which the Urals oil would be phased-out and the Baltic oils phased-in is still an unfathomable mystery. It´d be like changing a tyre without ever stopping the car going at 100 kms. per hour…
- Schwedt Refinery: enhanced storage facilities + handling equipment for inbound deliveries from wherever
By the required Option (3) the Schwedt Refinery needs modification of new feedstock lines and infrastructure, an atmospheric distillation facility, a vacuum distillation system, a cat-crack unit, a visbreaking facility, an alkylation unit, a catalytic reformer, an isomerisation unit, and an ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facility. Plus brand new storage facilities + handling equipment for Rostock feed to substitute the 24x7x365 smooth Druzhba pipeline. Not easy to do all that in 6 months ! … rather 6 years? Contractors and third parties everywhere. I foresee plenty of claims & lawsuits.
This re-vamping and retrofitting of everything will require an enormous effort that will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of TIME we do not have.
PLUS all sorts of sensors, software & firmware modifications or possible purchases of new stuff (!!) which mean that the IT Department, just for oversight purposes, most probably will have to hire new personnel (most preferably grey-haired if available ! ) and contract third party vendors… all of that in 6 months time…while all of Europe is necessarily doing the same while 95% compliance is not enough, only 100% serves the purpose. Sheer suicidal madness…
Any minimally experienced person that only knows some basic chemistry and process engineering concepts would understand that it should be absolutely unnecessary to continue describing the head-on technical & practical crash that the whole of Europe would be facing simultaneously, because the idea is to ban all Russian oil imports as of 2023 both seaborne and pipeline delivered, Hungary or no Hungary.
By the way, Option (3) would have to cover absolutely 100% of all the EU current and future oil consumption. So the EU should necessarily replace ALL the Russian oil Europe could possibly ever consume, NOT just a part. Because Russia now has other priorities and will no longer cooperate with and adapt to EU needs and timing in any way. So forget about gradual Russian oil substitution. It´d be the opposite Ursula. For example, and just to entertain the idea, even if eventually achieving constant delivery of 75% fully-compliant non-Russian oil… it´d still mean digging a 25% deep hole into Europe´s economy, which Russia will not help to solve by supplying the missing 25% oil.
Schedule non-compliance would hurt Europe badly and possibly leading to outward chaos by continuous damage beyond repair of machinery, processes, sensitive devices and installations that EU plants currently have in place.
So the goal is to modify all current European chemical plants and refineries by adapting them to whatever feeds of whatever quality and variations are effectively found, contracted and delivered by non-Russian vendors willing and able to deliver to Europe in enough quantities and qualities even under current circumstances. Oh, by the way, remember that this would have to be done simultaneously throughout Europe at every single refinery at the same time. Otherwise the 2023 deadline would not be met. So let´s start to modify, adapt, retrofit European refineries, chemical plants, equipment, etc. etc. for non-Russian substitutes of unknown origin with yet undefined all-around characteristics nor vendor track record. These oils would all be slightly different (not interchangeable) and definitely FAR more expensive mostly seaborne delivered to yet unmodified ports, berths, storage facilities and handling equipment. No “toggle-switch” possible for alternate feed of different oils to the same piece of equipment.
Also this mammoth undertaking would have to be done without Russia´s accommodation meaning it´d be utmost difficult to phase-out of Russian Urals oil as gradually as needed while new non-Russian blends phase-in… while the rest still awaits modification thus still requiring Russian oil grades which Russia would not supply in the way that Europe would need to keep importing. Russia would have other priorities, not accomodating for European needs.
So such very dangerous Russian tango should be hard to dance about and may end up like the Mother of All Suicides
Option (3) requires executing the above modifications to every single European oil-consuming and/or processing plant – refineries included — at the very same time and with the same deadline 2023. So it´d mean to fully and definitely modify/adapt/retrofit all the internal processes to accept non-Russian oil blends from yet unknown vendors that for Schwedt Refinery at least would supposedly continuously supply their viable quality batch-loads at the Wilhelmshaven & Rostock & Gdansk ports terminals in the Baltic Sea. Each of these yet unknown vendors requires negotiation, contracting, planning, testing, scheduling, delivery, certification, commissioning and payment of much higher prices.
And if EU politicians don´t know or don´t care they´ll still very soon participate front and center in a fast & furious crash course on basic high school chemistry that will turn their faces pale, I promise. Hungary has publically exposed the problem: “the EU has ‘no solution’ to fix damage from Russian oil ban”. Also promised, history will not be kind with the EU leadership both for absent fuels and everyday consumer staples with “prices out of the solar system”. The EU relies on cheap and efficient Russian energy for many things such as transportation, heating, and electricity. The drop in supplies will lead to blackouts, shutdowns in industries and unemployment pushing inflation to unmanageable levels
Ref # 15 https://www.rt.com/news/555297-hungary-eu-no-solution/
Also it´s easy to imagine vendors having something that Europe would buy, that still under current circumstances would not offer anything to Europe let alone helping the EU out in any way shape or form. Think India and China, the world´s factory countries in many ways. And of course Russia will naturally – and probably very effectively — hinder any European effort or solution to replace Russian exports.
At any rate, the above would be operationally un-manageable as no plant can run if receiving supplies on a variable basis with feeds of non-uniform qualities. The EU today has highly sensitive plants finely tuned and used to Russian high quality oil during decades. So no plant runs without continuous, foreseeably constant feed of the right quality product in large enough quantities which most probably will grow in time as demand increases.
One single ‘bad fuel’ refinery batch would produce never ending down/time impact, damages, repairs, claims, potential accidents with possible injuries, non-compliance and altered delivery schedules, liabilities everywhere. It has happened before and certainly could happen even in the Baltic ports as has been the case already with terrible impact
So, the following is all needed ASAP
- Overall agreement on European energy sourcing philosophy (years)
- Role of nuclear energy & LPG / LNG & renewables (years)
- European Green Plan implementation status and goals (open, probably never)
- Oil & gas & coal substitutes and suppliers approval to replace Russian imports (years)
- Schedule, plans, consultant vetting + industry input & feedback for new feeds (years)
- Site selection candidates for each country with adequate location for new plants (many months)
- Pre-feasibility studies + regulator´s Report approval (more years)
- Feasibility studies + regulator´s approval and involvement (yet more years)
- Detailed engineering + plans + specs + drawings, etc.etc ( several years )
- Contractor bidding process re civil works, electromechanical contracts, etc. etc. etc. (years)
- Bid evaluation process, bid homologation and Contractor selection (months)
- Final design, construction, manufacturing of parts, shipping and installation (years)
- Trials, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting (many months)
- New oil & gas feed contractor pre-selection (many months)
- Contractor bidding process etc. etc. etc. (many months)
- Bid evaluation process, bid homologation and Contractor selection (months)
- Trials and Testing (many months)
The time periods estimates required mostly do not overlap, they are sequential.
Politicians do not comprehend the language of engineering.
Ursula von der Leyen better know what she is doing.
This article has explained how Russia today supplies Europe with exclusive Urals grades of constant homogenous physical & chemical characterization that would be impossible to get from third parties fast enough and cheap enough in continuous enormously large quantities from different reservoirs wherever. So it´s a very delicate and tight matching already achieved between Schwedt and the Russian Urals blend, that most probably cannot be substituted anytime.
One possible way out of this messy mess is to rewind back to Feb. 1 , 2022 and keep buying Russian oil & gas directly from Russia while immediately commissioning Nord Stream 2.
P.S.: The Vilches “Bad Ideas vs. Power Theorem” states: “The intensity of bad ideas is inversely proportional to the distance that separates them from political power”. So ideas coming from the very center of political power have a zero in the denominator´s formula and thus are infinitely bad as per basic math anything divided by zero is infinite.
Ref #17 https://www.rt.com/news/555258-uk-energy-heating-cost/
Ref #18 https://www.rt.com/business/556059-europe-permanently-high-energy-costs/
Ref # 20 https://www.rt.com/business/556061-uk-petrol-prices-record-high/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-ministers-warn-no-increase-supply-coming-online
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pck-oil-refinery/
https://www.rt.com/news/555542-germany-deadline-drop-russian-oil/
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/impact-of-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-on-full-shutdown.html
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pck-oil-refinery/
https://www.rt.com/business/555295-ukraine-block-russian-gas-explainer/
https://www.rt.com/news/555297-hungary-eu-no-solution/
“According to Ursula von der Leyen – President of the EU Commission – Europe today keeps buying Russian oil just to “deny Putin an even larger war chest” by preventing Moscow from offering such EU-purchased oil to the world market and “profiting from soaring prices” (?). ”
I believe that is what’s called real, Talmudic logic.
I’m going to have to pause from howling with insane laughter from that first line and read the rest of the article. My sides hurt from von der Lugen’s illogic.
Too many silly women, in silly in primary coloured man suites. Has anyone noticed the obsession with wannabe’s waving their arms out stretched and hands in your face. Watch YouTube, they have their hands flapping in front of their face. It’s a sign from God… “I made them all mad.”
WARNING once you have noticed, it is everywhere like a song lyric inside your head. No way to stop it.
In addition to the simply incomparable Ursula, we have as Prime Ministers: Magdalena Andersson in Sweden
Sanna Mirella Marin in Finland
Kaja Kallis in Estonia
Ingrida Šimonytė in Lithuania
Mette Frederiksen in Denmark
Natalia Gavrilița in Moldova
And, as Foreign Ministers we have:
Annalena Baerbock in Germany
Liz Truss in the UK
At the risk of getting myself into all kinds of PC/Woke trouble, the girls really have made a mess of it. And when it all goes south, guess who will be tasked with carrying the can?
by design. Why? because the men pf power behind them all can get away with more “fun” and hide behind political correctness blowback.
Yes, come on girls, the populations in every country in Europe is in steep decline, you should do what God intended you to do, have babies.
It’s sad to see this scenario in the west. In Russia and China, meritocracy reigns. The Imperio Saxao Zionista likes to use feminist women as a puppet. They do not question the empire as long as their agenda is fulfilled. The same happened with Merkel. It’s pathetic to see this bizarreness and this incompetence. Kamala will be president of the non-United States of America. Biden is already faking senility.
Aaron wrote:
“Has anyone noticed their obsession of female Top Politicians waving their arms and hands while talking to the camera”?
Hal Duell listed:
Ursula Von der Leyen Germany (EU)
Annalena Baerbock Germany
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Germany
Rebecca Harms Germany
Theresa May (UK)
Liz Truss (UK)
Nicola Sturgeon Scotland
Magdalena Andersson Sweden
Ann Linde Sweden
Annie Lööf Sweden
Mette Frederiksen Denmark
Helle Thorning Schmidt Denmark
Margrethe Vestager Denmark (EU)
Sanna Mirella Marin in Finland
Kaja Kallis in Estonia
Ingrida Šimonytė in Lithuania
Natalia Gavrilița in Moldova
My Comment:
But there is many more. Check out George Soros list of Allies in the EU Parliament:
https://legacy.gscdn.nl/archives/images/soroskooptbrussel.pdf scroll down to page 51 for a list by Nationality.
They exert a uniform gesticulation and lack of logic.
Just like the swarm of Communist Agitators released during the 70s in western Nations.
I get the impression that they have all been “Coached” by the same Media training course, they found while being brainwashed at Bilderberg meetings, before they returned back into National politics, with Globalist campaign funding and support.
Is it a coincidence?
It cant be when so many female top politicians use the same form of agitation and have a common Globalist viewpoint, despite representing different political wings.
These trained female agitators really have made a mess in Western politics to the detriment of their National populations, and the World as a whole.
They don’t shy away from Regime change, Civil war, Censorship, Human Rights abuse, Fascism, Nazism, and warmongering.
As they succeed in turning Western society back to the middle Ages via the Great Reset, we might even get to the point of burning witches again.
I refer to her as Ursula von der Lying.
That why we Germans exiled her as we usually do with politicians we do not like. Sadly she is also destructive in her current position.
Big mistake, to put her in the recycling bin: https://img.welt.de/img/fernsehen/mobile102006190/7561626117-ci23x11-w1136/wetten-leyen-tonne-DW-Vermischtes-Stuttgart-jpg.jpg
All while the “Biden” administration closes lands to exploration and shuts down pipelines because “green energy”…
But now, in some new hot steps for the WWIII boogaloo, Greece and Iran play oil tanker bingo in the Persian Gulf. (with Greece carrying out orders from the AZE, of course) —
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-operatives-seizes-2-greek-tankers-persian-gulf-retaliation-us-taking-iranian-oil
Who put that crazy person in that position?
Sure she might be good in something in the eyes of whoever placed her in such position.. specialy knowing the very poor job she did as minister of defense in germany… Well, not poor,, she just did nothing.
The Jorge Vilches inverse power law — the crazier they are, the closer to the heart of power.
Not sure which way the causal arrow points on that one, but the phenomenon appears to be real.
ahahhhahahhh !!
Well I wouldn’t go that far, she did get the troops wooden rifles to practice with!
Wooden swords I can understand- but wooden rifles, what use are they?
You think that’s bad?
I recall a Squadron Exercise whilst in the BAOR almost fifty years ago practicing section attacks out of Wessex helicopters.
I was in the first batch and we completed our practice just in time to stand at the edge of the field to see the next section (normally 6-10 personnel including a two man LMG (Light Machine Gun) team) come in low in the choppers, disembark and set up their initial firing positions.
The Officer standing with us at the edge of the field intervened, yelling about why it was the LMG section were not providing the (simulated) covering fire. The reply came back that the section had not been issued with an LMG. At which point the order went immediately back to ‘improvise.’
After a two second pause the sound of four hands clapping from the LMG team position was heard. Even the Rupert burst out laughing.
OK, I know just what Iran can do:
Sink a ship in the Persian Gulf. Stop the oil trade flat. That’s always been its ace-in-the-hole
Hi Michael, fancy meeting you here !
BTW, I feel I´m missing something important, so please fill me in.
Please explain / expand the idea. Politically naïve Jorge doesn´t quite get it…
Michael, why would sinking a ship in the Persian Gulf ´stop the oil trade flat´ as you say ?
The Persian Gulf is international waters right ? And depending upon whose ship it was it could mean WW3, no ?
If not, what would a sunk ship do besides losing the cargo, spoiling the environment, and possibly drowning the crew ? Cordially, Jorge
Jorge…relax.
You must never judge folks by your own high standards. They simply cannot rise to the occasion.
The world is entering either total destruction or renewal and a new beginning. Keep on keeping on, with your “Grownups Presentation.” Crazy, hysterical people scream the loudest not to mention being all over the place like a mad woman shit. Here’s hoping Michael can contribute to the environmental clean up.
Someone once told me that the modern business world is run or controlled by lawyers and insurance companies – sinking a ship in the Persian Gulf would make getting insurance impossible for any subsequent Gulf trade of oil shipping by ship.
I don’t know if the Michael Hudson that posted was the real one,but I know that you are real. Iran can and will destroy all shipping lanes. That is an absolute fact. That is the very reason among others why Israel and America can never invade Iran.
The oil is a complete secondary issue for it is this war and the hatred of the west to all others that is of concern to the rest of the world. Not the west.
Russia will always make enough to survive and the west renewed strategy of stealing African and middle eastern fuels will fail. They will be summarily kicked out of Iraq, Syria and Africa and that is my observation.
The oil and wheat will be given to these countries and the west will wallow in their racial hatred, for not just Russians see this racism.
People that choose to show the errors of their ways only make sense to people on the outside. The paid puppets, ignorant and illiterate only understand the mission that they have been ordered to carry out.
But, but, the Straits of Hormuz are not in international waters where some 20% more or less of the world’s oil passes through on a daily basis!
https://www.jus.uio.no/pluricourts/english/blog/geir-ulfstein/international-law-hormuz.html#:~:text=The%20law%20of%20the%20sea&text=The%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20is,sovereignty%20in%20the%20territorial%20sea.
Dear Jorge,
The real Michael Hudson says this:
“Iran’s role as U.S. nemesis”
“What stands in the way of U.S. dollarization, oil and military strategy? Obviously, Russia and China have been targeted as long-term strategic enemies for seeking their own independent economic policies and diplomacy. But next to them, Iran has been in America’s gun sights for nearly seventy years.”
https://michael-hudson.com/2020/01/america-escalates-its-democratic-oil-war-in-the-near-east/
Roll on phase 3. USA v RIC ( Russia, Iran, China)
in the fight to control the last energy reserves.
I placed my chips on RIC because they will prevail as the USA is self destructing nicely in real time. Europe and Japan are joined in sympathy to die with the Hegemon.
And there’s this overview of Russia Ukraine China energy related piece by Gail Tverberg which covers a lot but I don’t agree with her on a few things, like Russia needed to prevent her economy from collapse and needing high oil price to survive. The complexity of the relationship between energy and our civilisation is not easily explained or well understood and is therefore reduced to subjective views based on one’s own experience research analysis and ethnocentrism. Undeniably despite all these factors the realities of resource conflict have a common theme and a common interest as they affect all of us in some way or other. Hence the minutiae of the discussion on the theme here at The Saker.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/03/02/russias-attack-on-ukraine-represents-a-demand-for-a-new-world-order/
Back to Michael and the wider picture. There’s an interview here
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/03/sanctions-energy-and-independence/
worth mentioning featuring Michael Hudson that I haven’t seen on The Saker. Every interview Michael does is unique because of the interviewer’s questions even if the topic is similar.
Cheers,
Colin
The above comments say everything that I could.
I don’t think that Amaranth and the guardians of this site would let anyone fake my name, so don’t worry. If there really were a questionable intro, she knows where to reach me.
Way back in the 1970s, we were discussing Iran’s ability to sink ships in the Gulf of Hormuz. ATP is right. I should have specified that. A sunk ship will block the oil trade. You can imagine what this would do to the price of oil.
And regarding international waters, wasn’t Iran’s tanker grabbed in international waters?
I still don’t get it, sorry. Michael, you are saying that sinking one single ship in the STRAIGHT of Hormuz would be a physical barrier large enough to block it up for good ? I doubt it. Or would it just be a physical threat to any other ships that dared to navigate those waters ? Still, the former case would hurt everybody — not just their enemy — and both cases would clearly mean war. Neither would help Iran. Please explain
It seems the obvious Truths are constantly evaded by commentators and pundits alike.
The Puppets that pretend to run the EU do not plan on creating new Energy solutions…
Their (((Masters))) intend to overthrow Putin, break up Russia, and steal the oil, and mostly gas, resources of Eurasia within the current borders of Russia and Turkmenistan.
Then these same (((Neocon))) (((Banksters))) (((Shylocks))) intend to sell it to the EU at even higher prices.
The Rothschild Jews stole Ukraine.
It needs to be taken back… 100%.
Land bridge to Krim? Not enough.
Land bridge to Transnistria? Not enough.
Land bridge to Kaliningrad? That’s more like it.
Indeed, all these gesticulations are just for show. I commented time and time again that these politicians are professional liars. Proved their grotesque plans will inevitably fail, they will find excuses to resume business at usual, ignoring completely the catastrophic damages they did to our diplomatic relations with the rest of the world.
Obviously the UK are furious Shell got denied all of Ukraine natural ressources, that’s one of the reason why Boris Johnson is the ferviest proponent of that war.
Not “just” oil and gas (although the EU is in for fun times finding any alternative for the quantities used today). There’s also the transport costs – pipelines are both inexpensive (per MJ equivalent carried) and have a wide capacity flexibility. Contrast with tanker-based supply – always more costly (and for LPG FAR more costly) which of course adds to the price paid by the final user – the consumer (either as a higher product cost for finished / harvested goods, or higher energy retail cots for domestic use).
Then there’s Russia’s “other” exports – which though not quite as glamorous / “headline-grabbing”, are just as essential for the Western industrial economies.
In the meantime the SMO has provided an added financial bonanza for the Russian weapons suppliers, with order books fully committed for the next 20 years. The revenue from those sales alone will be in the billins, and the R&D funded by those billions will have a very significant benefit in future development and innovation.
Thanks for the input Phil S.
It’s also true what you say regarding transportation costs. I explain a little bit in the “PRICE” + “delivery” paragraphs. Still, it´s an all-around impossible messy mess. A private company would dismiss the project and fire the proponents. That´s why at the very end I mention my “Bad Ideas vs. Power Theorem”. Cordially Jorge
I hope the fragrant Ursula can read?
Excellent exposition of reality. But it does prompt one question. What if Russia decides instead to deal with its friends only, rather than its un-friends? After all, if you were Russia on the receiving end of the EU (and US+UK), trying actively to have Russians killed (and seizing funds etc) wouldn’t you?
It would be a very nice business, say for China or India, refining Urals and selling gasoline and diesel to the West (for a massive profit).
If I were Ursula (euphemism for the brain dead West) I would be shitting myself.
@cdvision
Thanks for your favorable comment. Regarding oil sales, the fact of the matter is that as explained in the article and as the EU knows all too well …(…and partly thanks to Ursula herself, poor soul if she only knew…)… Russia makes LOTS of money selling oil, far more than by selling natural gas. Oil revenues would be the Russian cash cow. And besides, as stated many times, Russia only wants to have European business partners, not enemies. So they´ll keep selling oil and whatever to the EU, but the problem is that the EU + US want to “confiscate” Russia itself, simple.
Jorge! as someone who covers the Russian Oil and Gas sector for a living ( http://www.rusmininfo.com) I very much enjoyed reading your succinct and accurate analysis of the problems that the economically illiterate EU politicians face in their rush to stop using Russian hydrocarbons.
As usual politicians have made knee jerk decisions without understanding the consequences of their rhetoric or the unintended consequences for the economies of the countries of the EU.
Effectively they are committing ‘economic suicide’ and for what? For a country that is not in the EU or in NATO and this is obviously being orchestrated by the US Neocons ( Nuland and her Chums who have a visceral hatred of Russia due to Ukraine family connections going back to WW2)
They don’t seem to understand the basic point which is they need Russian hydrocarbons more than Russia needs their money.
Rhod, coming from you, it´s the best technical encouragement I could ever get. Rhod, please help us all further by being cruel with criticism of my article. This comments section is home to me Rhod, and others will also input. We need to be prepared for arguments to be presented by third parties. Don´t mince words, please. And thanks again for the trouble- Cordially Jorge
They are also scientifically and technically illiterate as well. Hard to know which is worse?
I find it hard to believe that they don’t know the consequences. I speculate that their actions are deliberate with full knowledge of the gross hardships that will ensue. That seems more probable. There seems to be no reasonable independent voice in entire leadership. To what end though. Definitely nothing good can come out of it.
I believe that end will come. At this point how could Russia, China, India and the rest of the global south ever want to return to the dollar-denominated chains of western slavery?
Hey Jorge, enjoy your articles. I’m not an engineer, but while these refineries undergo this mythical transformation, can I assume that they won’t be refining much? To me, stupidity can’t possibly explain it all. I’m going with malice. It looks like we’ll get to see a trial run of the Soylent green new deal
@Immaculate deception thanks for the much needed encouragement.
And yes you are correct !
All of them refineries and chemical processing plants modified / adapted / retrofitted and “fed” differently — in more than one way — and all at the same time with the same deadline, imagine !!
I call it “sudden death” and mention the problem in the article a couple of times somewhere. It´d be like changing all four tyres non-stop while your car keeps going at 100 mph. Many times I disbelieve there isn´t one single clear common-sense thinking mind (like yours) in all of Europe.
Cordially Jorge
The sheer length of this above writing to Frau Von der Leyen … very impressive… tells me the oil for EU’s economy is not such a simple matter that our politicians will make it… to say the least…
To get this published by the major papers, ie MSM in Europe – if they dare – would work wonders… …. ‘the oil from Russia must stop now ‘- talk … would stop… and oil would flow forever…
and if not… maybe the leaders would be stopped, removed… and others who will let the oil flow be installed…
So I dare the writer to get his writing published by the MSM…
Would be good to hear all the laughter rolling all over Europe..
@Bente Petersen
Thanks for the praise, etc. not for my personal ego purposes as this is not about me at all. But your encouragement does keep me going because otherwise it´d be an echo chamber and I hate that. I´d rather receive critical judgement — which sometimes I do — in order to improve. When critized constructively we all lear, including myself, and gives me ideas for new topics for new articles. This has happened before and will continue happening thanks to this Comments section whereby I touch base with reality down to planet Earth. I welcome critical thought, always. But I have said it many times and I will say it once again: mine is a very lonely job, trust me, and no space for tears either. You gotta be strong, and I just try my best, rest assured. This right here right now is home to me okay ?
Regarding MSM allow me to say a couple of things (1) they read me allright (2) they comment amongst themselves, pick my brain, and try to defend their postures accordingly. Sorta like a silent sparring partner. Sooner or later one MSM (I can´t guess which) will break the ice I am sure and will publish me. Besides “The Saker” articles have been RE-published a lot, but not really really MSM. Still, a couple (or more) of my articles made Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Raúl Ilargi Meijer blog, The Automatic Earth and Counterpunch thus RE-published with close to 200.000 viewers per article. Not really MSM but still MSM does read all of the above I know that. Cordially, Jorge
Its good to have such articles republished but even those are read by a miniscule portion of people.
A 1-3 minute summary animated graphics with maps and photos ala CNN news room style will hammer the idea in the heads of hundreds of millions.
It can be served via Tik Tok videos and the tens of thousands of Youtubers can redistribute the longer 3+ minute versions.
Make no mistake reaching out to people with low attention spans. These are the lynch mobs what matters in what passes for democracy now a days.
Its no joke these are what were a key resource for the famous US sponsered Color Revolutions.
Zone B needs to give it back in the same coin to zone A.
masr, thanks for the critical thinking and constructive criticism we all here benefit from, specially myself. I read you and follow your point, which is specially valid for younger people than myself who would normally not read that much that long. I am an oldie (not baldy true that) but the age is with me and pretty much all alone, and that has pros and cons. Among the cons is myself not being IT savvy and I would struggle lots with what you correctly suggest, so what I try to do is summarize the gist of the idea in the first page, driving the point home.
Still, anything other than what we all get to now read in “The Saker” would need to be approved by the editors Andrei and Amarynth. Maybe it´d help if you could please post a couple of links with an example so we all can see and “feel” how it impacts. Still it is very difficult to reach every genereation at the same time with the same message. So far I have only learned to manage (sorta) the style and format you read now. Some still criticize my lively and colorfull language, some even say it´s “populistic” whatever that means… Still masr, many thanks for your great input, certainly well taken
It is truly a thing of beauty watching this boondoggle play out. The combination of Russia and the EU could have been a match made in heaven. Instead we get to watch the EU in the persons of Ursula von der Leyen, Klaus Schwab and I know not who else salt the fields in which they stand. Is there really no one in Europe willing and able to put a stop to this madness?
And on the “other side” we have Putin and his team utterly across their brief both militarily and economically. They are making every post a winner. Except that Europe set this in motion, it would almost be tempting to cry foul, to stop it all just on the grounds of an unfair match due to an unfair level of competence.
It’s not too late. I do still believe that. But it is time to get a wriggle on. First must come the acknowledgment from Europe that she is part of Eurasia, not part of North America. All else will flow from that.
For this to happen Hal a Kinzhal would have to fall on all the Western parliaments while sitting, Financial Centres and Intelligence offices.
A purge absolute
Alas, the Baader Meinhof revolutionary ethos of the 70’shas been replaced today by a punch-drunk woke zombieism.
The psychopaths (WEF, Ratschild, etc) won’t allow it. They’re playing to own & control everything and everybody or destroy it all if they can’t.
In that regard I concur with WTFUD, this evil / cancer must be eliminated from the globe.
Cutting off Russian fossil fuels now will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by those countries currently receiving Russian fossil fuels. In that way it will lower the rate of global warming due to European us of fossil fuels. It is also likely to result in population of those countries declining further reducing the contribution of those countries to global warming. This may be the underlying motive for abandoning Russian fossil fuels.
It would be nice if it was so straight forward and simple, as far as saving humanity and other life on Earth from the deadly effects of global warming. The levels of greenhouse gases are on track to kill most life on Earth even if we stopped using fossil fuels this instant. And no relief will be achieved by stopping fossil fuel use.
@John
Yes, I believe that you are correct in your (theoretical) conclusions. But EU leaderships is talking about SUBSTITUTING Russian oil, not reducing consumption of oil or fossil fuels for that matter (ask Greta). Still, because of what´s explained in the article, I say that the EU will NOT be able to substitute Russian oil — or gas or coal for that matter… for the very same reasons.
So yes, correct, if Europe were to end up with NO substitutes for Russian oil (as will happen…) then your conclusions would be theoretically correct… BUT, Europeans will not put up with that methinks, the pitchforks will gain the streets and the Ursulas will be kicked out. It´s happened before, it is history…
There is a lot of information in the following link. But for quick peek, here the climate related deaths from 1920 to 2015:
1920 480,000
1960 180,000
1980 60,000
2015 20,000
https://fee.org/articles/climate-related-deaths-are-at-historic-lows-data-show/
If the European “leaders” were to succeed in eliminating Russian oil and other energy imports without replacements (and replacing it with non-fossil fuel energy would take decades with competent leaders whose goal was not to “decrease the surplus population” so to speak) it would result in the most vulnerable (someone was just moaning about them, I think the solution was to increase taxes on the greedy energy companies to stimulate production, or something like that) it would result in a lot of freezing to death in the dark come winter. If you have been reading what the WEF and other psychopaths have been proposing, you might think that is the intended outcome.
Wind and solar are not sources of energy, Require more energy to produce and install and maintain then they will produce in there lifespan. Modern society runs on energy not money so doesnt matter that they are profitable when the energy runs out from them we can burn the profits roughly 100 jeules per bill 100 watt solar panel takes 200kwh to produce then has to be shipped and installed and maintained, and very seldow will produce at peak efficiency. Requires a motor to turn it so it can follow sun using its energy to move Using america as an example 2 thirds of the land of the country would have to be covered in solar panels to replace hydrocarbons. .i
@Jorge Vilches
@John
Let me begin by pointing out that I have no inside knowledge how Brussels reason, only practical experience from large, and at times dysfunctional organisations.
EU talks officially about substituting. Same officials say that tackling the green house gas problem requires reduction.
I personally believe we have competing factions within Brussels and EU.
One faction, the “enviro-fascists”, wants to collapse the current energy framework, “to save the planet”. They are actively supporting anything that disrupts oil and gas, and nuclear. They can advance their agenda unimpeded, in stealth, in current hysteria/histrionic marinated west.
The other faction, the “virtue-signalists”, merely wants to “stick it to Putin”, because these people are in the winning elections/”staying at the trough” business. That means cuddling with US and entourage.
The optics may be similar but drivers and convictions differ fundamentally between these factions. The “virtue-signalists” are goaded by the far more radical and disruptive “enviro-fascists”.
Is EU mad? Of course, when looking at facts and reality. However, looking at it from an anarcho-feminist-enviro-fascist perspective, it all makes perfect sense. Like Karl Rowe once said, “we create our own reality”, or something to that effect.
From that perspective, EU is behaving exceptionally well as the entire population, with some exceptions, are fully onboard, and articles such as this exceptional one, well researched, well seasoned, fact based, is just “throwing pearls to swine” at best, and criminal offence at worst in today’s west. Whether population will remain onboard after a longer period with bi-weekly showers, airing of clothes, and being on welfare rather than work, who knows?
Because “we have to save the planet” will disguise and censor the hardship we are about to face. We have seen nothing yet.
Praeparatus supervivet
“deadly effects of global warming”?
That must be irony, similar to the “deadly effects of Western arms shipped into Ukraine” perhaps?
Disinfo..Global warmimg? ”Doctored Data, Not U.S. temperatures, Set a Record This Year by James Taylor”
”EconLog. 1.6%, Not 97%, Agree that Humans are the
Main Cause of Global Warming. By David Henderson”
”The UK Telegraph in their ClimateGate Series exposed the U of East Anglia Climate Scientists, who were tasked with supplying the UN’s IPCC with temperature data.. for having deliberately placed thermometers on rooftops next to hot air con outlets, on black tarmac car parks, in city enters and supplied many readings from Russian locations with NO thermometers”.
There are 3 basic climate science principles: -1) Climate science is in it’s absolute infancy.-2)The climate is so complex it is impossible to model or predict. -3)The inherent complexity ensure it will always be changing and nothing man does impacts that.
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is the highest it’s been in nine years,
increasing more than 30% from last year, while the Antarctic’s level is well above normal. Most years the Arctic loses ice, but this year ice extent has increased” more than 77,000 square miles. That’s according to the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility’s High Latitude Processing Center.
Pentti Linkola wrote
” The composition of the Greens seems to be the same as that of the population in general — mainly pieces of drifting wood, people who never think.”
https://www.penttilinkola.com/pentti_linkola/ecofascism/
It’s not needed proven there are massive investments in carbon capture technologies, reforestation, public transports and the expansion of nuclear energy (thorium nuclear plants). But of course our leaders prefer to sell us miracle solutions such as solar panels, windmills and electric cars, which are a complete boondoggle but prove popular in the mind of the brainwashed masses. With the added benefits of considerable backhanders with the producers of such technologies.
And what do you replace hyddrocarbons with it takes 200 kwh of hydro to produce a 100 watt solar panel most need replacing before they make back that energy it is a fools game
The Schwedt (PCK) refinery has a huge appetite for crude, in the order of 220,000 barrels per day (or just over 35 MILLION litres per day!)
If we go by the largest SuezMax tanker (1 million barrel capacity), then this ONE refinery can chew through that in FIVE Days. For the smaller SuezMax (800,000 barrel), that’s less than FOUR day’s supply.
There are just over 500 SuezMax tankers in service. The VLCCs carry up to twice the cargo, but their port requirements (especially draught) are significant. I suspect they might have problems operating in the relatively shallower Baltic approaches.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/468405/global-oil-tanker-fleet-by-type/
The costs of tanker construction have risen too – a “new” SuezMax will cost $63 million (vs $95 million for a VLCC), and construction takes around one year. On the bright side, the Chinese shipyards certainly have the capacity (and demonstrated capability), but a year’s still a year (and that’s from keel laid, not including design and engineering spec).
Good data Phil S. thanks guy ! I can see the EU ordering MANY expensive VLCCs to China, to no avail. It just won´t work.. Cordially Jorge
Jorge – even if they DO order, China’s already got pretty full order books. Best case scenario (and this is a ball park guesstimate) two years (initial submission to final commissioning / hand-over).
Then – there’s the running costs – these tankers burn the heavy thick bunker oil (and a LOT of it – the big ones burn through up to 100 TONNES per day . . . . .) which is about $60,000 (per DAY) at today’s prices. Not exactly speedy – max speed being in the 15 knots range (less than 30km/hr!)
If shipping oil’s already costly, and these behemoths burn a LOT per day – it might surprise the EU High Command to discover the “hidden yet substantial” added costs of their hare-brained ideas.
Happy we DON’T live in the Northern Hemisphere right now!
Methinks the “lady” doth protest TOO much! Shakespeare-Macbeth reference here very apt methinks.
I just wonder, with increased tanker fleet traffic on unprecedented scale, how long it will take for one of them to get damaged and spill its oily guts all over those pristine beaches of France, UK, the Netherlands Germany and Poland. It is pretty much assured that every tanker available will be put into service to quench Europe’s energy thirst and at least some of them will be in less than ideal shape. How long before Europe will experience what US is regularly experiencing in the gulf of Mexico and shores of Alaska? How many extra billions will it take to clean Europe’s shores if even possible. Would we be able to even afford it by then?
Yarpen, I fully agree, it´d be inevitable. Sooner or later another Prince Williams Sound event. Can you imagine Greta´s reaction ? Even handling and mid-sea practices would pollute lots of the Baltic. Good point. Yet another possible article right there. Not just the fossil fuels Global Warming argument, you are warning about plain direct envirnomental and business impact. Cordially Jorge
Top drawer Jorge!
U. Urals = anagram of Ursula
This twisted vindictive unaccountable career politician, much like her Euro peers, is enjoying a very comfortable lifestyle. You’d think that earning an excellent salary, package, she’d want to make decisions that enhanced ordinary European lives, but hell no, she hasn’t the slightest consideration for main street Europe, no, her all consuming personal hatred of Russia blinds any logic and forethought of the consequences of her actions.
Listen, in any other post in the private sector she’d be long gone. She’d make any organisation she worked for uncompetitive. She’s obviously tone deaf to the concerns of German/EU industry . . . . she can afford to be because her job’s not on the line, she doesn’t have to worry about paying her monthly bills.
This nasty snide jumped up empty vessel reminds me of a cheaper model of Hillary Clinton and when the axe falls on Europe I hope she’s at the head of the queue.
. . . . . and I didn’t swear once.
As always, thanks so much for your encouragement WTFUD !!
Cordially Jorge
I’m starting to understand Orbans comparison to consequences of EU policy with an atom bomb.
This is insanity. Are they bluffing, hoping for a quick Russian defeat, so that these policies will never see the light of day ?
Vilches’ last articles made me do an exercise in alternative history.
Two key factors could have changed the entire European energy architecture:
1. USA succeeding in the installation of a puppet regime able to control the entire Iraqi territory since the first decade of the century;
2. USA successfully overthrowing Assad in Syria in the beginning of the 2010’s
Any of the alternatives above would provide enough time and (maybe) safety to the deployment of new pipelines passing through “west-friendly” territory, as well as time to adapt refineries in Europe.
Just an exercise.
So when did Public Servants become Movie Stars?
Facts? Who cares when Murka’s offering wheelbarrows full of money?
Logic? Who cares when Murka’s offering wheelbarrows full of money?
People? Who cares when Murka’s offering wheelbarrows full of money?
Money money money! Money matters! Money talks! WGAS about anything or anybody else?
Excellent article. Amazing work.
Politicians hate engineers because engineers explain how reality hinders fantasy.
Thanks for the encouragement Rusty. I also share your view. Cordial bear hug from Jorge
What if China and India (and others) make commitments to buy all of Russia’s future energy production, and then when Europe comes crawling back Russia says ‘nyet’? They will be forced to find substitutes that are not readily available. Talk about dead-end self immolation.
@norecovery, it could happen, at least partially. Markets are so tight it´s a seller´s market, not buyer´s. So even if what you say happened by 50% it´d be unmanageable. Even if China and India + whoever diverted 25% of Russia´s current deliveries to Europe it´d be a mess. The only way out would be for Russia to INCREASE production and satisfy both customers… as long as Europe keeps paying in Rubles though. And Russia will try to do that, of course. But such situation will eventually mean (sooner rather than later) for Europe paying in gold as euros are “toxic candy wrappings” according to Putin. But still finding the right timing for such switch-over would still be a problem for Europe. Cordially, Jorge
Its good to have instant solutions but the world is very complex. It takes nerves to hold out and slowly steer the world into the direction you want while the risks continue to be active and possibly still hurting you.
In general societies cant be transformed overnight by a military or economic action(which is why the west has failed of late)
Its best to do it slowly and give time for common man to change his views. That and carefull calibration of the pain dial.
Power and overwhelming power is what general public is geared to appreciate provided you also give them adequate reason to think that they are part of the power structure. This is the reason for the unprecedented western propaganda ie to ensure peoples loyalties dont switch. Definitely the power equation is changing in the world.
Yep, that is the same Ursula von der Leyen who, during the COVID scum, bluntly said it was the time to abolish Nurnberg code (?!?!?!) so that governments could forcefully inject their populations with experimental injections without peoples’ consent.
That pretty much says everything one needs to know about her. She either has complete lost her mind, or is nothing but a puppet of Klaus Schwab and his WEF.
Brandon, I didn´t know that. Thanks for the data there. It speaks volumes about her, doesn´t it ? Cordially, Jorge
If US/NATO/Zio wants a war on Russia, then at some point they will have to rally the people, into a ‘charge of the light brigade’, for ‘king and country’ suicidal fever!
Those days, however, are long gone and I suspect that the number of people who could be inspired, to head for the trenches, would be in small single figures.
Even a false flag nuke would probably be only a yawn, after a week. There is more chance that the people will be turning their rage onto their politicians and bankers for creating this absurd situation!
And the first thing the people will burn is the citadels of debt, which have reduced their lives to a slave class!
All the European nations, together, cannot militarily take on Russia, yet they expect Ukraine, alone, to commit suicide for them. It is not only cruel, it is psychopathic, and a war crime!
How long before Ursula is standing, accused, in courts of law?
Or is she so stupid, she cannot even understand these concepts?
Sr
Jorge Vilches
Gracias, por tu completo analize, del futuro de Europa, sin gas , oil, y subproductos
El proyecto Europeo, sin Rusia, está en camino,
Realmente el proyecto , no se sabe cómo va terminar.
Adelante Rusia, que el dolor sea, grande, para los criminales políticos europeo,.
Mr
Jorge Vilches
Thank you for your complete analysis of the future of Europe, without gas, oil, and by-products
The European project, without Russia, is on its way,
Actually the project, it is not known how it will end.
Forward Russia, may the pain be great for European political criminals.
Celso, thank you for your kind words of encouragement. Cordially Jorge
Surely Russia will cut off oil to Europe at a time of its choosing. Why not? It has infinite leverage and really make those idiots in charge scream. I hope it does actually.
The people who will end up screaming are those who didn’t make this decision in the first place – that is the hoi polloi. I think Russia is aware of the difference well enough to not act prematurely like the USA does. I dunno how else to explain it.
Hi
For long ‘book length’ articles it would be more appropriate and wise to add a brief ‘page length’ synopsis.
Thanks
Lao Tsu, thanks for the input. I try my best to summarize the gist of the article in the first 3 paragraphs. Sometimes it is impossible to present an understandable synopsis that will be rejected by the audience for other reasons. Reality is complex and summarizing it sometimes not easy ! Still, your point is well taken and I´ll see if the editors can help me any on this. Thank you again Cordially Jorge
Everyone is making the same mistake that the USA had tricked Russia to attack Ukraine. No, it is not that easy to trick the Russia of today. It might have been easy to trick Yeltsin or Gorbaczow, but not Putin, and his team. Russia knew about what’s happening in the Ukraine. Russia also knew about what was Ukraine, who are the Ukrainians. It was easy for Hitler to attack USSR through Ukraine, rather than through Belarus.
Moscow knew about what’s happening in the Ukraine for the last 8 years. It couldn’t stop the Maidan happening in 2014, but could get ready. The Russian Army became the best in the world. It could help Syria and test all kinds of armament. Also, Russia became richer and richer, in practically all areas.
The West tried a colour revolution in Belarus, which failed. It, then tried another coup in Kazachstan, which too failed.
Then, the joint war games with Belarus. And, all kinds of “leaked” info about imminent Russian attack on Ukraine, which didn’t happen for nearly 5 months. In the meantime, there were Russia’s ultimatums on NATO, but sent to Washington. And, those refusals and sabre rattling by Biden, Blinken and Stoltenberg. But, still no one in the West really didn’t know what Russia would do.
Then, things happened within 3 days — the invitation of heads of DPR and LNR to Moscow, the calling of the Russian Duma to recognise the two republics, and Putin recognising them and signing the security agreements of those two republics with the RF. Then the next day, committing Russian forces to defend those two republics. So, in the morning within an hour or so, Ukraine was hit early in the morning. The rest is history.
No, Biden or the USA didn’t trick Russia to attack the Ukraine. It was planned, and much, much earlier. The world woke up surprised, especially the Ukraine, USA and NATO.
Thanks for the report. It’s clear blocking Russian oil/gas to Europe would be the stupidest decision one could ever make. It simply doesn’t make any sense at all. However, what if the WEF globalists have a different plan like they want to deindustrialize Europe or bankrupt European industries altogether just to let the big financial conglomerates like Vanguard or Blackrock etc. move in for a last minute 007 rescue mission under the banner “To counter Russia’s imminent threats against the %100 pure White race’, whose representative today are the Azov warriors in Ukraine?
Dear Jorge this is Ursula van der Crazy dont ask for even common sense coming out of her. The other crazy is Analena Blabla Baerbeck. Sometimes i suspect the neocons planted them to destroy Europe. The castrated Borrell and Stoltenberg are just for ”decoration”
We may have forgotten that when change leaves the business, sustainability is paramount. Business is the driver of energy transfer. there are no sincere, benevolent people in that world who are trying their best, says Randy Hayes of the Rainforest Action Network.
Wind and solar companies run a profitable business. It will not save the planet or humanity. The current consumption of energy and materials is high. Maintaining it requires intensive mining and oil and gas production.
When it comes to price of electricity things have gone pretty wrong. In good old days when nations tend to have self-sufficiency we had quite stable and moderate prices, Let’s say 5 cents per KWh. Now during windy days truly cheaper 1-4 cents but when hardly winding at all we will face roof of 25 to 50 cents, during winter even higher.
This all is truly bloody business where greed is good, moderate sin. Energy business is now evil Wall Street skinning the public.
In my experience during the energy crisis of the early seventies, when OPEC tripled the price of crude oil from around $4 per barrel to $12 it caused similar increases in the cost of energy across the board, whether it be coal or gas, that also raised the cost of commodities, especially metals by similar if not higher amounts. As an international metal trader, I did quite well by going long and keeping large inventories off the market in Rotterdam bonded warehouses.
Much the same will likely happen again now that the oil companies have raised the price of crude to just over $100 per barrel. This is not President Putin’s doing as claimed by the Biden administration, but by the increase in demand especially from India and China to fuel their expanding industries in the face of almost no increases in oil production, that the Greens have tried to stifle over the past twenty years or so. Germany shutting down its nuclear fission reactors has not helped either.
It is puzzling that Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, wants to cut off supplies of gas and oil from Russia, that will no doubt ruin German industry, and cause great financial harm to the general population within the EU countries together with massive unemployment. If this policy persists Germany will become a failed state. Is this Ursula’s intention or is she just stupid ?
@Kaprikorn: “If this policy persists Germany will become a failed state. Is this Ursula’s intention or is she just stupid ?”
Both. Ursula only got the job although she is stupid, because she was somebody’s niece. But that somebody wants to ruin the people of the EU$A and buy them up for a song.
“We shall own everything and be happy” — Davos theme song.
Simple equation here: Russia+Europe = ENEMY OF THE USA.
USA master-Europe satrapies = MAKE RUSSIA ENEMY NUMBHER ONE!
Europe needs to ask the USA what they would do if all US citizens, diplomats and businesses were kicked out of Europe.
Europe can’t survive without Russian gas. It can survive easily, albeit a bit less enjoyably, without US software, smart phones, venture capital, hedge funds etc.
The choice is pretty simple, isn’t it??
The EU, Germany’s best deal ever. in the last decade Merkel has taken in millions of Africans, now Olaf Scholz will compensate Africa with German specialists
“The update came as the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this weekend started his tour of several African nations, including a visit to Senegal, Niger, and South Africa. Germany is looking to deepen its economic relationships with African nations, especially in energy, investment, and trade.”
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/germany-striving-to-develop-gas-field-with-senegal-amid-supply-uncertainties/
“The Haidach gas storage site in Austria—one of central Europe’s largest—may be unable to receive any natural gas ahead of next winter due to a lack of connections other than with Russia’s Gazprom, Austrian energy officials told Bloomberg on Friday.
The Haidach site was built and used by Gazprom and is one of the biggest in central Europe. It has the capacity to hold enough natural gas to cover four months of consumption in Austria.
Gazprom, however, halted earlier this month gas supply to Gazprom Germania GmbH, its former subsidiary, which Germany seized a few weeks ago. In retaliation for Western sanctions, Russia imposed sanctions on Gazprom’s subsidiaries in Europe, banning them from supplying Russian gas.
Gas supply to some units of Gazprom Germania has stopped, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told the Parliament earlier this month.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/One-of-Europes-Largest-Gas-Storage-Sites-Could-Start-The-Winter-Empty.html
——–
Then about the Wind energy. This week end brings some relief but according weather forecast of next week looks pretty agonizing for German, Danish, Swedish and Finnish wind energy. Few checks from Berlin, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Copenhagen, Gothenburg, Vaasa, Turku etc are showing just 1 to 4 m/s day and night.
This is the reality our leaders have choosen for us. No wonder why there is now everlasting winter for electricity consumers.
There is noting dear about von der lugner, she sells herself cheap, The rest of Europe is forced to pay the bills.
Anyone with a modicum of common-sense can clearly surmise that Europe is being instructed to commit economic suicide by the US. The European Union is a death trap to all its demented leadership involved and always has been.
Biophysical economics. ‘Money’ is a human construct and is just a ‘claim’ on future energy with the crucial assumption that it will be both plentiful and available at your disposal in the future. Without energy, money looses its value. That is exactly what we are seeing at the moment with the cost of living crisis in Western Europe.
The Win-Lose strategy adopted by Western Europe was to try to instigate a colour revolution in Eastern Europe so they could take control of its energy resources. That was always going to fail because Eastern Europe has the energy resources to defend their energy resources plus the ability to crush the value of ‘money’ in Western Europe.
A monumental failure of leadership in Western Europe. The US on the other hand know exactly what they are doing – destroying Western Europe.
To Jorge Vilches
Real eye-opening articles from Mr. Vilches. Sir, thank you very much !!
Thanks Leonidas !!!
Bear hug from Jorge
well…. maybe if this article could be sent to every German politician and manufacturer of oil based products…. business groups..trade associations…every city and town council…etc etc….cos I doubt this will be permitted to be published in any Euro press….she might be deposed along with the rest of her idiotic associates….
also include every EU MEP…..etc
JJ good point, thank you. I can´t know for sure about the rest you rightly mention, but regarding EU MEPs rest assured that each and every one of them has received a copy of this article… and even most of them have acknowledged receipt. Also some Schwedt businesses and Brandenburg economic authorities… Will they read it and act accordingly ? who knows ? Maybe you can help out with distribution no ? That´d be great !! Cordially, Jorge
Here Von der Leyen assured MSNBC Morning Joe host Brzezinski that the reason for no EU Russian oil embargo, is to keep prices down!
You could not make such a spin up!!
When the EU can totally spin MSNBC without batting an eyelash, you know the game us up!
Spin blow-back, blow-dried.
Transcript from : Putin Pushing Europe In Direction Of Clean Energy, Says European Commission President
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp5p9jfbBxk
4:39 I TAKE THE EXAMPLE OF OIL.
4:43 WHERE WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL IS
4:46 THAT IF WE WOULD CUT COMPLETELY
4:51 OFF OF TODAY FROM OIL, HE MIGHT
4:53 BE ABLE TO TAKE THE OIL TO THE
4:55 WORLD MARKET WHERE THE PRICES
4:56 WILL INCREASE AND SELL IT FOR
4:58 MORE.
4:59 AND THAT WILL FILL HIS WAR
5:01 CHEST.
5:01 SO WE HAVE TO BE VERY STRATEGIC
5:05 IN THE WAY WE APPROACH THAT
5:08 TOPIC.
“Wonderful is the effect of impudent and persevering lying. The British ministry have so long hired their gazetteers to repeat and model into every form lies about our being in anarchy, that the world has at length believed them, the English nation has believed them, the ministers themselves have come to believe them, and what is more wonderful, we have believed them ourselves. Yet where does this anarchy exist?” – Thomas Jefferson to William Smith Paris Nov. 13. 1787.
There are some who think Integrity Initiative and Brigade 77, Zinc are new. Not to mention TikTok, Meta, Google, Ofcom and the Jankowicz DHS Disinformation Unit, now ‘paused’.
Impudent and persevering lying is a British trademark – look where EU dignitaries got their training – The London School of Economics :
Ursula von der Leyen , EU Commission President, studied there under a false name Rose Ladson.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/die-morgenlage-aus-der-hauptstadt-wer-war-rose-ladson/24592960.html
And German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Green and warhawk :
Master’s degree without a Bachelor’s degree
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/karriere-hochschule/hoersaal/annalena-baerbocks-studium-in-london-master-ohne-bachelor-17336848.html
It sure looks like LSE dishes out Masters without Bachelors, in Impudent and persevering lying.
The LSE was founded in 1895 by Sidney and Beatrice Webb both members of the socialist Fabian Society Included among its past lecturers are: Harold Laski and Ralph Milliband, both self declared Marxists who had a great influence before and after World War II. The school has trained many polticians and political leaders from all over the world. Two of its most infamous alumni are: George Soros and David Rockefeller. It has always been seen as progressive politcally speaking and has a world wide reputation. One of its most famous past students is Sir Mick Jagger of Rolling Stones fame. The Trudeau family also has connections.
Two of its infamous Professors are von Hayek, and Keynes.
on Hayek, so-called Austrian School, has an incredibly fanatic US following, rabid monetarists.
The Tweedle-dum and Tweedle-dee battle whenever any economics must be discussed, is the Empire’s grip on central banking policy, in Russia as well. Just one read of Glazyev’s banking blog shows he knows the problem.
There is one flaw in the authors argumentation what the logistics are concerned.
Wilhelmshaven is not a baltic port, but a north-sea port. On top of that there is no need to use Gdansk as
receiving port for oil-deliveries. There is port a polish port by the name of swiniouce (Swinemünde) at the mouth
of the river Wolga which could receive oil-deliveries. This port is located 30 km north of Sceczin (Stettin) with
sufficient draft. Schwedt is not far away from this port and I think deliveries by barge to Schwedt refinery should
be possible. What I do not know are the handling and storage capacities at Swinouce, but is should not be a
big problem to build such infrastructures.
@Logistic-Expert, thanks for your valuable input. Your points are well taken.
(1) Wilhemshaven, well that´s a “gotcha” your are correct. Still, doesn´t change much, does it ?
(2) Gdansk is part of the declared EU “plan” while Swinemünde was not even mentioned, probably because of the HUGE infrastructures problem you mention no ? Barges are out of the question…
Cordially, Jorge
Logistic-Expert, please be advised that additionally barges are way too small volume for Schwedt troglodytic requirements, dirty handling, loading and unloading procedures, and still require additional freight to the Schwedt refinery yard. An all-around mess. The EU “plan” is to have the Rostock port terminal as the only hub that would connect to the pipeline as described in article, which would be another HUGE mess. Still thanks for your comments and keep do them coming they are most usefull to make us all think together as a poster team !!! Cordially Jorge
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/first-global-energy-crisis-how-to-fix-davos-2022/
The retreat from Davos i.e. Europe is mainly due to the fact that Russia is not liquidated yet but its objectives of the WEF 2030 agenda are still intact, energy poverty, universal religion New World Order (NWO) that involves important parts of the hierarchy of the Catholic Church such as Leonir Chiarello, (who was appointed by Pope Francis as a member of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life!!!!) in the pontificate of Pope Francis, all the programmatic points of the WEF, of the Globalists, have been incorporated little by little, the only thing missing is abortion and civil unions homosexuals to close the circle… I think that in not much time… we already have Jeffrey Sachs inside the Vatican.
The energy supply is now strongly pressured by the lack of investment that is leaving less and less margins to supply the market, the only thing missing is for Iran to start sinking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to bring a barrel to €500.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aramco-ceo-warns-global-oil-crunch-due-lack-investment-2022-05-23/
I have not yet read that this conflict is TOTAL it is not only energy, economics, weapons, geopolitics it is deeply spiritual but look how they have corrupted the West to the basement for decades.
TOTAL is a French oil company – just sayin”
Pope Francis came to power through the overthrow of Pope Benedict (who became the first and only Pope Emeritus in history- not the same thing as a pope who completely abdicates as in the distant past such as Celestine V 1308). This overthrow was brought about by a coup involving President Obama, Vice-President Biden and Secretary of State Clinton together with Chancellor Angela Merkel and, so it has been said, George Soros. This was reported in the secular press at the time in England (Daily Mail) and under President Trump a group of cathoilc senators started an investigation into the US Governments involvement in the coup. Before the so-called resignation of Pope Benedict, Henry Kissinger had been deputed by the NWO/WEF people to give political lectures to the pope as he was considered too naive in foreign affairs. There are many catholics who consider that Pope Benedict’s see was impeded so badly by members of his curia that he could not reign properly. Deutsche Bank with the input of Angela Merkel cut off the Vatican’s cash machines over the weekend prior to Pope Benedicts declaratio on the Monday morning following. There are many problems with this decaration and with the subsequent conclave that brought Cardinal George Bergoglio to power. Just recently, Archbishop Vigano has questioned the leglity of this conclave and the so-called resignation of Benedict. He has asked for a commission to be formed to look into both. Bergoglio (Frances) belonged to the influential group of prelates known as the St Gallen Mafia. They have close contacts with the likes of the WEF and are very favourable to NWO policies regarding Global Warming, mass immigration into Europe from the Third World and the Great Reset etc. Bergoglio (Frances) has promoted many of these policies and is a supporter of the marxist Liberation Theology, so popular in South America with the Jesuits. He has also carried out what many regard as an act of idolatory a couple of years ago in St Peter’s Basilica involving an Amazonian deity Pachamamma. Many of his statements have been considered unorthodox and even heretical by some. He is clearly just the sort of pope that the likes of George Soros and Karl Schwab would approve of in Rome. Incidentally, some saints of the past have predicted this era and the two popes of opposite tendencies existing side by side. One of these was St Francis of Asissi!
Bergoglio authored Laudato Si, a paean to Gaia, and it sure looks like the text came from Sir John Schellnhuber, CBE, who ran the Potsdam Climate Institute.
Sir John is an open proponent of a world population of 1- 2 billion, Merkel had to fire him as science advisor in 2014 when the press got too hot.
In other words Bergoglio openly threw out Genesis, go forth and multiply.
This is after all the Great Reset – population reduction. Look at Bill Gate’s Optimum Population Trust.
And Prince Philip”s ARC, now called : International Network for Conservation and Religion
https://incrworld.org/
Just look at how religions are co-opted, and the various programs and funding.
Thanks for the excellent explanation why Europe isn’t likely to have a viable future without Russia and all she has to offer.
It seems like the Von der Lugen, Timmermans, Scholz, Baerbock, Habeck, Marin, Truss, BoJo etc. types take a look at the available options and unerringly choose the most stupid, most damaging one.
Unfortunately their choices have very detrimental effects on the lives and well-being of millions of Europeans, who either never voted for these “dumb blondes” or didn’t give them a mandate to wreck everything in such a comprehensive way.
Que el Señor le proteja Sr. Vilches
Gracias Oscar de Caracas !!
Even if you don’t believe it, oil is biodegradable, go to the Gulf of Mexico or Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela and you will see it, the surface bacteria in the water will have a feast (Alcanivorax borkumensis)
If Iran is attacked by Israel it will block the Strait of Hormuz , you don’t need to play target shooting.
Tanker war restarted
Looks like the Greek will not be driving their cars this summer.
If this escalates, the Persian Gulf, the Suez Canal and the Eastern Mediterranean may become unsafe for European shipping.
That link by Jorge is an absolute must-see!
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/impact-of-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-on-full-shutdown.html
(Let’s just say I know this outfit, not promoting it.)
The sheer level of industrial development in the EU is apparent in every mage there.
Step well back – that is the target – to destroy what Europe has achieved after the total destruction of WWII.
Step another 500km into orbit – and look what the Eurasian Economic Union is doing. Another 500km and one sees the BRI – a grand hyperscaled version of what Europe managed to do.
London and D.C. have declared China Enemy #1 – for this very reason.
A Corollary to the The Vilches “Bad Ideas vs. Power Theorem” :
Good ideas are extremely powerful.
If you can read between the lines, in case of Schwedt the German government ist considering option 4: Seizing the refinery and “selling” it to an “investor” who is going to “convert” it into a biofuel or hydrogen production site.
Saying something on behalf of the Saker Blog.
Jorge’s unique voice makes these topics come alive. No further editing is needed. One puts this in the hands of a real copy editor and what comes out will be a grey regurgitated bolus, written correctly. Really. We are much more interested in making the voice of the author audible? or visible? :-)
No wizz bang Tik Tok videos are needed. Only interested readers with the ability to integrate information or present a question.
I am personally and on behalf of the blog very grateful to Jorge, for writing this work (it is hard work to write folks!), and supporting it throughout, answering questions and entering into the discussion sphere. I know firsthand how much dedication that takes. Dedication to one’s work and also dedication to us, the publisher. His work does get widely distributed and I’m always surprised at the massive reach of the Saker Blog! This writing (and the others) will most probably be picked up by some of the other independent Saker Communities out there, in Spanish, in Portugese, Serbian, French. They follow their own editorial policies and I don’t know who will pick it up, but they are mostly supplied by this main Saker blog.
I promise you, Jorge’s work travels widely.
Thank you Jorge!
@amarynth
From the bottom of my heart and the core of my soul… thanks to you Amarynth… as you have made it real easy for me to write for and publish in “The Saker”. I have never been able before to enjoy an editor like you Amarynth, allowing 100% freedom of substance and for my rather “special” (!) style for my articles. I still know and feel you are covering my back all the time. Same for the commentariati thanks to you all right here right now I feel at home with you and miss you in-between articles which is a very good reason to keep thinking new topics or aspects of the same subject really. Please keep up critical thought, input, objections, whatever… because it helps me to improve and other posters to focus their comments better. Excellent work people ! Big koala bear-hug for all of you, specially for Amarynth and Andrei of course for the opportunity
“Ursula von der Leyen better know what she is doing.” I will submit that she is nothing but a
tool of Uncle $hmuel, and is on his payroll. How else to explain cutting the Euroweenies collective throats? She is getting very rich, therefore, she knows what she is doing.
The insanity of it all!!!!!!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australia-green-in-control/
When they learn the truth that “Green” will not in any way or fashion cure global warming because global warming is about the pollution of sin in relation to Divine Communication O what will the outcome of that be?
See here:
/book-review-andrei-martyanovs-the-real-revolution-in-military-affairs/#comment-729151
Brussels proposes an initial ban only applying to Russian seaborne crude, according to Bloomberg.
OKay, that´d mean that Hungary et al win ( for now ) and refineries such as Schwedt still ( for now ) continue to have the Druzbha pipeline feedstock all 100% normal (sorta, please keep reading). That´d mean that approximately (spitball figure for chat purposes) 50% of the messy mess would be temporarily postponed while the other remaining 50% would still be a HUGE unsolvable MESSY MESS as described in the article above affecting OTHER refineries and chemical processing plants elsewhere in Europe.
The EU would thus have 50% (approx.) of traditional excellent products using the Urals blend delivered by the Russian Druzbha oilpipe refined as usual but INTERMIXED in the very same European economy with a rainbow planoply of different products obtained from different Baltic oil blends through differently modified process plants and refineries supposedly ( I have my VERY strong doubts ) still apt and equivalent to the other “original” Druzbha products supposedly interchangeable and mixable with them ? (NOT).
In a sense, it´d be the worst possible of all cases. It would mean a wholly unfair competition as Druzbha pipeline fed businesses would have tremendous advantages over those fed with the new unknown Baltic oils plants with refitting / reconversion downtime kicking them outright out of the market for unknown period of time possibly bankrupting them and creating EXTRA-ordinary logistics problems to consumers throughout Europe.
Allowing for the Druzbha oilpipe to continue is NO real solution to a huge diseminated problem now perpetuated (no rewinding guys, sorry !!) that STILL needs to be solved. Be it 50% or 25% or even 15% is still HUGE volume to be modified totally unexpected and would still take many months if not years with failures all along.
Instead of shooting itself in the head temple Europe now chooses to shoot itself in both knee-caps and both elbows…
Please commentariati I count on you guys to re-read article in function of these possible news. So instead of rewinding the EU doubles down leaving pending a very important percentage of the problem. Posters please comment much needed feedback for thinking this out together with your input. Cordially Jorge
https://www.rt.com/news/556292-eu-oil-embargo-ukraine/
It’s not really true that nobody voted for Ursula von der Leyden, the City of London folks voted for her and hand down to her all the decisions and statements we see. So the strategic mess is coming from the organ grinders, not the monkeys, and that’s a good thing. I think a big part of the organ grinders problem is that an increasing percentage of the global population is waking up to underlying realities, thanks in large part to the internet and it’s ubiquitous smart phones. It was stated somewhere in the Elders of Zion manual that members had to watch out for technologies disruptive to their plans, don’t know what they’re going to do about this one, Pandora’s box has been opened and while a lot of bulllshit is flying out of it a lot of inconvenient truths are as well, you just have to keep your brain working and in filtration mode.
RE: Michael Hudson
With all due respect Michael, I still don’t get it, sorry. Are you saying that sinking one single ship in the “STRAIGHT” of Hormuz would be a physical barrier large enough to block it up for good ? I seriously doubt it. Or would it just be a physical threat to any other ships that dared to navigate those waters ? Still, the former case would hurt everybody — not just their enemy — and both cases would clearly mean war. Neither would help Iran. Am I missing something important here ? Please explain
Someone once told me that Lawyers and Insurance companies run or control modern businesses – if Iran sinks one ship, then no other ship owners or shipping companies can get insurance to cover operations in the Gulf.