For days now the Ukie forces have been regularly shelling Russian border posts “by mistake”. So far, I think that only one officer was wounded, but that nobody has been killed. Russian ammo-disposal control specialists have been sent to get rid of the unexploded ordinance, and some border crossings had to be closed, typically for a couple of hours.
Does that matter and should anybody care?
Absolutely. Just like the fall of Slaviansk, the regularity of such “mistaken” shelling of the Russian side of the border is militarily irrelevant, but it is symbolic of the fact that the Ukie chihuahua can bite the Russian bear in total impunity. And what is the point of ignoring these “provocations” when there is an obvious response which nobody could dispute and which would be absolutely legal in terms of international (and Russian) law: fire back to *protect the Russian servicemen and civilians”. This is really not that hard at all. Install a few batteries of Uragan MLRS in the right spots, set up a few counter-battery radars, place a few fire controllers along the border and wait for the Ukies to make yet another “mistake”. And then turn the offending unit into dust with a single well-placed strike. Finally, announce that you will be doing just that every time the Ukies make that “mistake” again.
Again, that would be absolutely legal in terms of international law, that could not be construed as a Russian “escalation” or “provocation” and it could even serve as a very nice protection to any NDF unit near the Russian border.
Right now, all the Russian passivity is achieving is further exiting the Ukie arrogance and total sense of impunity.
The Saker
Saker Message:
“This is really not that hard at all. Install a few batteries of Uragan MLRS in the right spots, set up a few counter-battery radars, place a few fire controllers along the border and wait for the Ukies to make yet another “mistake”. And then turn the offending unit into dust with a single well-placed strike. Finally, announce that you will be doing just that every time the Ukies make that “mistake” again.”
I’ve been wondering why that hasn’t been done yet.
For the management of the Donbass crisis Putin fully deserves the Boris Eltsin Award.
It may be ‘legal’, but the USA and their collared European muts will scream “PUTIN IS NEW HITLER!!!1!” at the top of their lungs again if Russia tries to fire back.
Might be better for Russia to just keep ignoring this annoying ass chihuahua. Maybe it will just get bored or tired and go away at some point.
Well these provocations are just a trap.
It’s better to not be fooled.
Best wishes
Anonymous in Finland
“all the Russian passivity is achieving is further exiting the Ukie arrogance and total sense of impunity.” Perhaps that’s the idea.
Finally, Russia has found a long term strategy to deal with Ukrainian agression :
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced Saturday that Moscow is halting the process of delivering weapons, Ukrainian military forces’ equipment and funds from the territory of Crimea to Kiev authorities due to their military actions in the east, which have resulted in the “deaths of civilians, including children, and civilian infrastructure in Donetsk and Lugansk regions being destroyed.”
“The decision will be valid until a full ceasefire in the east of Ukraine by the country’s military and until a peaceful solution is reached,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.
This is not even “diplomatic language”, it’s senile gibberish given the actual circumstances.
For days now the Ukie forces have been regularly shelling Russian border posts “by mistake”. – Saker
^ A groundless assumption. Common sense and experiences tell me that these rounds could be very likely incidentally over-shot the by NF militiamen attacking Ukrainian checkpoints or patrolling units operating in the border area.
Sorry, but I ever more doubt in your alleged analytic skills.
Fire back across the border? Nyet.
It can be used as just another reason for heavy intervention. And intervention will happen, eventually.
Number of Ukrainians are against the Government. Given time the government will collapse, however if Russia does restricted retaliation then Kiev will win.
If Russia attacks it should go all the way to Kiev but should also prepare for the consequences.
All the world needs to do is look at ISRAEL and how it reacts to ‘accidental shelling’ of its territory, all Russia has to do is complain to the UN and say next time it will ACT in SELF DEFENSE and wipe out the UkZioNazi artillery.
Sad and sickening to see the EU US MSM and media Black OUT on reporting of the slaughter in Ukraine!
It’s called ‘rope a dope,’ and the response will come when the time is ripe.
Saker – you should digest – Israel actually favoured the partition of Ukraine, and Russia intervening and protecting the Donbass!
This is despite corrupt Jewish people on Poroshenko’s side. Jews were on both sides as struggle started, documented by important analyst Roi Tov, political refugee from Israel in Bolivia.
Saker, it’s wonderful to see your now-matured perspective, facing the moral horror of Putin’s inaction. Your writing shows more peace now that you accept the tragic reality of Putin’s betrayal.
But your ‘Anglo-Zionist’ epithet needs adjusting. As Roi Tov notes, when Ukraine struggles started, Israeli media quickly ran maps of a partitioned Ukraine, with the East going to Russia. Israeli media avoided the EU-US propaganda line.
Israel’s interest now is to weaken the EU, given EU now takes a more pro-Palestinian, pro-sanctions-on-Israel bent.
25% of Israelis speak Russian! A half million or so of them remain Orthodox Christians! In the 1990s when Russia was poor, Jews invited a huge wave of Russian immigration, much more than a million, for any Russian who claimed a Jewish grandparent. Lots of Russians went, including some who dislike Jews.
For Israel, these tough Russians are now the fighting core of Israel’s army (versus now-soft longer-settled Israelis). Also, they are white (Israel is racist, discriminating against black Jews and even brown Sephardic-Mizrahim Jews who have the most connection to ancient Israel). 25% of Israel ‘proper’ (not counting West Bank & Gaza) is Arab. Israel imported Russians to ‘fix’ their demographic problem, Christians included.
Israel’s Prime Minister gave a special Christmas message to his many thousands of Russian Christian soldiers. Many Israelis have relatives in Ukraine, on the Novorossiya side as well.
Israel basically welcomed the partition / Russian invasion, as a poke in the eye of a troublesome EU. Israel wants the EU to weaken, start to fail, and to motivate EU Jews to move to Israel (with French Jews they are succeeding).
Jews have a 2500-year-old fetish for education … plus their Talmudic mind-set makes them less dogmatic, more clever, in their ‘use’ of knowledge … they show up in any European culture near the power centres.
But it’s not correct that smashing Novorossiya was ‘Anglo-Zionist’ … it was ‘Anglo-EU’ with corrupt Jews assisting.
Dear The Saker,
I have read your previous posts – “The fall of Slaviansk…”, “Slaviansk is out of sight… and this post – “The shelling of the Russia…”
I wanted to reply in one post to all 3.
I personally think it is a retreat from Slaviansk and had to happen in order to survive the onslaught of the Ukie Nazi Army and try and preserve the lives of those left. The city had been blocked and encircled and there had been no way out – I am glad to see the militia did get out and are going to protect other areas.
I think your next post – the translation by Gleb Bazov kinda makes this point.
Let the Ukies coo, cheer and think they have a “victory” – very easy when you have your whole army take months to shell and destroy a city. Kill lots of innocent civilians. Use foreigners to help. Real soldiers – great honourable victory!
As far as the shelling into Russia goes things are being put in place so Russia can respond within the law but first they need to get OSCE there to observe – as has been agreed – so there is no room for Chocie boy and his controllers USG to cry foul and start a war.
This is what Putin and Russia are trying to avoid.
This is much bigger that just Ukraine….as we are all aware…
If things are so great for Chocie boy why are palnes waiting on tarmac to remove vip’s from Kiev?
Our emotions go up and down and I sympathise with you – hold tough – as awful as it is – there will be method to this madness.
Rgds,
Veritas
It does matter, but the point is NOT to react a la nazi-zionist, by sending the USAN-apaches and USAN-bombers against Gaza to smash it into rubble, while killing scores of children in the way, for every occasion a hand-painted-home-made tiny rocket is shot from Gaza to Sderot in occupied Palestine.
There is something called International Law, International Conventions, Treaties, and so on and so forth, that have been patted and trampled over by the reckless United States of America; that Russia wants to bring bank, re-enforce, and make respect, and aat the same time finish off with the very damaging Malthusian-view of the world held by the USA, so that we, the rest of the people, can live together, somehow. That is what for laws and treaties have (and are) being issued.
In this regard, Russia has taken the proper steps.
As I am 100 per cent anti-belicist I notice that most of you guys think the only way to solve things is by sending the army in. This is a very american point of view!. But, alas, this is how you’ve been indoctrinated from birth, with so many wars waged by the US, so many films on TV at every hour, 24 h x 365 days, so many war games that “educate” soldiers to shoot at human beings as if they were characters in the video games of war, not thinking for a second of the orfans and families being left behind of those deaths.
The way the USAN regime behaves is a disgrace for the whole humankind.
.
Level Kiev.
Dear Saker,
Typo: “further exiting the Ukie arrogance” should be *exciting*
This is a good idea, as far as I can tell. For instance, the West has been desperate to bait India into attacking Pakistan, so that the West can then impose its desired “solution” in Kashmir. India knows this, which is why India hasn’t launched a major counter-attack, even after grave provocations like the Nov. 2008 attack on Mumbai. India has preferred to sit back and watch Pakistan implode.
However, artillery duels along the Line of Control have been common for many years. The Pakistani Army runs to the U.S. and yelps, but the U.S. has refused to get involved. India’s actions are fully legitimate under international law, and everyone knows it.
I can assume the restraint of Russia in regards to these cases of shelling is because Russia has something in mind; when the times come, the cases of shelling will be used.
At the same time it seems US/EU/NATO became using somewhat less aggressive stance… Understanding that if they push too far they will get what they want and it may be unpleasant for them?
Saker there are those known unknowns and once Russia mobilizes a no-fly zone and tasks itself with a police action there are unknowns. Prestige may be lost by Putin for not acting decisively and then again maybe not if intervention opened doors for more war. The Ukraine is a trap and the cheese is the atrocities and the mouse of Russia is expected to intervene in a time and place of NATO”s choosing. How many atrocities are enough to force Russia’s hand? What will be the trigger? Who benefits from the police action? Where will the conflict go next?
all the Russian passivity is achieving is further exiting the Ukie arrogance and total sense of impunity
As it has all along. The real question is “Why?” and the secret answers to this question would tell us much – in advance of what the unfolding of events will tell us anyway, with a bit of patience.
As was said on the “Donbass Revolution” Facebook page 8 hours ago:
“On the night of 4 July 5 II DNR Militia was decided to carry out a tactical retreat. All statements that militia beat, etc. are disinformation. Losses are minimal. Part militias voluntarily remained in the Slavic and easy victory Armed Forces of Ukraine will not.”
That link is here:
https://www.facebook.com/DonbassRevolution
Well, very few people believe that Bush or Obama called the shots in Washington. Maybe it turns out that Putin doesn’t call the shots in Moscow either. Maybe Russia also has a “deep state”.
So what would be the purpose of the “mistakes”? Or are defeated seperatists trying to shelter under Russian protection like the South Ossetian ethnic cleansing squads did in Georgia?
“Russian passivity” is actually very effective. The events in Novorussiya cannot be looked at in isolation. Germany and France are slowly chipping away from the US cabal. Russia is only a year away from visa-less passes to EU, which would dramatically change the dynamics of Russia/EU relationship. Debts to Cuba and N.Korea are counseled because Russia has huge plans there. The deal with BRICS on de-dollarization is slowly moving forward. All these things are of titanic proportions because Russia is not just protecting itself – SHE IS REBUILDING THE WORLD. Ukies are just some annoying mosquitoes that were ordered to distract and bleed Russia as much as possible and they will be dealt with in due time.
When the time is right, Putin will act! He always did in the past and he will do it again. This is not the time yet. I know it is painfully frustrating and downright agonizing to watch but please, see the bigger picture. Only the true insiders in Kremlin know the full scope of what is happening. It is so easy for the rest of us keep demanding retribution and justice from the comfort of our corners without knowing the entire story. If the wisdom of Kremlin is not fully utilized, then a lot more people will die and the world will get enslaved far beyond our worst fears. Keep your faith!
Saker, I’m so sad to see you suffer from all this – people with open hearts suffer greatly from this analysis gig, I’m thinking ;)
I would love to see you enlarge the focus of your analysis and speak to the bigger picture. You must know there’s more going on here than border skirmishes.
May I post the link to Tony Cartalucci’s latest article today?
http://journal-neo.org/2014/07/05/ukraine-kiev-s-ticking-time-bomb/
For those pressed for time, let me excerpt a huge amount from the article in the following quotes. It may serve to reveal the larger war happening, the bigger picture:
“Kiev and its Western backers face a confounding dilemma – continue military operations in eastern Ukraine and create a heavily militarized opposition while racking up a troubling human rights record, or commit to a ceasefire and for all intents and purposes forfeit Donetsk and Lugansk just as Kiev has done regarding Crimea.
“The West’s decision to ignore altogether the fighting, only to issue vague, spun narratives blaming all violence on Russia does little to counter or discredit RT’s reportage – in many ways, the West’s silence vindicates RT’s coverage.
“The longer Kiev fights on, the more exhausted its troops will become and the more battle hardened their opponents will be. Additionally, Kiev suffers from multiple strategic disadvantages, including a lack of public support beyond the howling but small ranks of Ukraine’s ultra-right Neo-Nazis. This lack of support will become increasingly acute when economic hardship begins digging in…
“The extremists that put the current regime in Kiev into power will make life untenable for the people of eastern Ukraine should they submit to the current Poroshenko government. This ensures protracted hostilities that will last long enough to overlap growing dissatisfaction in the west regarding Poroshenko’s poor management of Ukraine in all other areas. In other words, Kiev faces a ticking time bomb created of its own incompetence and encouraged by those in the West that have propped up the current government in the first place.
“With its greater survival at stake, their is no risk it [NATO] is not willing to take with Ukrainian lives and the greater stability of the Eastern European nation. The inevitability of this agenda – pursued at the cost of the Ukrainian people – provoking a backlash in western Ukraine, is guaranteed.
“The eventual fall of Kiev will spell the end of EU-NATO expansion.
“With NATO’s brand of hegemonic expansion swept aside, the world will be tasked with describing a new order with which to replace it. The multipolar world preferred by nations like Russia, China, and other BRICS members is already poised to serve this role.”
So – President Putin goes to Latin America this week to further the multi-polar new world. It will be really tempting to think he’s turning his back on Ukraine and jet-setting around the world having fun.
But to understand this war correctly in Ukraine, we HAVE to see the rest of it – in Syria and Iraq, around the world, outside Donbass.
I’ve been following this conflict and your blog since the Feb 22 coup. I must say that, for all their reputation for planning, it seems to me that the Russians have been caught with their trousers down. They must have known this sort of thing was on the cards since the original ‘Orange Revolution’ in 2004, but they still rely on Ukrainian exports in the military, and it will be the end of next year before they have replacements (see here: itar-tass.com/spb-news/1298368). I would have thought that they would have sorted at least this much out years ago.
Something appears to have happened around the beginning of May. The takeover of Crimea went without a hitch – possibly the least expensive annexation ever. I’m guessing they had that well planned. Then at the beginning of May they looked all set to go in and sort out the problem (when they had their troops massed on the border and two military districts on full alert). Then, all of a sudden, they roll over and play dead. Now, even under (I assume) deliberate shelling of their border guards, the most they can do is issue ‘diplomatic protests’.
I hope they have a grand plan, but considering they seem to have squandered the 10 years warning since 2004, I can’t see it.
I was and I am deeply desturbed by all the murders, all the horror in Eastern Ukraine. And still I was and I am against Russian untervention, even a small scale retaliation for “mistaks”.
The US/NATO is just aching to start the war. Don’t give them the chance!
And, as angry it makes everybody, it is not time yet.
I think what Putin (Russia) is saying with each passing day is that the civilians are the actual front line soldiers of WWIV. Which is an even more horrible reality than anyone wants to accept. The West is making enemies of its former friends, all across Europe and even on the fringes of the USA. And the pathetic, amoral, sustained neoliberal anti-Russia propaganda campaign isn’t working very well in the era of the modern internet. Indeed, the limited perspective afforded by RT coverage is much closer to the truth about America then they would like to admit. That’s why it’s so popular.
At this point I support the Russian Federation – as an American, they’re the best friend I’ve got.
The problem with the retreat is that now the Ukrainian army will allow in Western media to bear witness to Russian atrocities … once they line up all the manufactured evidence.
The Western MSM is all too gullible and will lap it all up. After all, the MSM exists now to regurgitate whatever officialdom has to offer up because it requires no bureaus, no travel and no expenses outside a salary beyond the “stenographer-as-reporter.”
Not sure how all this plays into the equation, but at least on this front it looks like the US is not winning the way it thought it was
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-04/punishing-france-us-just-accelerated-demise-dollar-0
Not even we anticipated this particular “unintended consequence” as a result of the US multi-billion dollar fine on BNP (which France took very much to heart). Moments ago, in a lengthy interview given to French magazine Investir, none other than the governor of the French National Bank Christian Noyer and member of the ECB’s governing board, said this stunner at the very end, via Bloomberg:
NOYER: BNP CASE WILL ENCOURAGE ‘DIVERSIFICATION’ FROM DOLLAR…..”But the phenomenon of U.S. rules expanding to all USD-denominated transactions around the world can have an accelerating effect.”
In other words, the head of the French central bank, and ECB member, Christian Noyer, just issued a direct threat to the world’s reserve currency (for now), the US Dollar.
It’s an interesting problem for Putin. He has had to react to sustained US-backed aggression. It may well be that Donetsk and Luhansk both fall. And if so, there will be some hard feelings especially if they feel that they were encouraged to stand up and then not backed up. Given what Saker has said about opinions in Russia, it could entail some PR problems there as well for Putin. At least he has salvaged Crimea from the whole business.
The real problem for Putin is that Russia is still economically fragile. Russian demographics are starting to recover, and Russia has huge potential as an economic and political power. But it is all still at risk in the short-medium term. Russia is vulnerable to being cut off from international credit markets, and once that happens, the US will keeping tugging on that leash as long as possible. Relations with Europe are another vulnerability. The Europeans are not wild about confrontation with Russia–with the possible exceptions of Poland and the Baltic states–but Europe is so passive and submissive to US strategic demands that any pretext the US can find will drag the EU down the road of long-term damage to EU-Russia ties.
Perhaps the emerging German spy case and the BNP-Paribas fine/blackmail issue will have a salutary effect, but again, more in the longer term than the short. In this game of chess, Putin is a good player, but the US has many more pawns for now. Putin thought that he could leverage the uprising in D/L into an agreement that would prevent Ukraine from being drawn completely away from Russia. But he may have underestimated US animosity towards him stemming from Russia’s preventing the isolation of Assad in Syria and also from the Snowden case. Porochenko is indeed someone taking directions from abroad. So, Putin, as much as he hates it, may be forced to treat D/L as a pawn that must, regrettably, be sacrificed as Serbia was in 1999 but much more painfully.
The shelling into Russia and relentless attacks indicate the great desire to see Russia do something that constitutes a pretext for its economic isolation. Putin, like Kutuzov, may be retreating in high summer and waiting for General Winter and Marshal Natgas to rendezvous in November. Even there, he will have to be careful, as no doubt, the US is trying to use WTO regulations to label any Russian moves as a violation of the agreement.
This is a very difficult time. Russia is slowly making a come-back, but it’s two steps forward and one step back. A French politician counseled patience and waiting for the French in the aftermath of the loss of Alsace and Lorraine to Prussia/Germany in 1870 that is perhaps apt for the Ukraine situation: “Think of it always, speak of it never.” The fact that the polls Saker is citing show similar caution at a popular level is all to the good and will hopefully limit the political damage for Putin.
Any Russian incursion will result in a hysterical overreaction from NATO – which appears to have been the plan all along: to isolate Russia from its economic ties with Europe and its neighbours. (it is most certainly not about the interests of the people of Ukraine). So why step into that obvious trap? The Kiev regime is pathetic and divided. It will not last.
Invoking international law is a winning strategy, with great appeal across the globe in light of the obvious double-standards of the Americans. Poroshenko has already been warned of the possible legal consequences of the eastern Ukraine operations. It would be nice to see some balance brought to the international court – or else to shine light on its double-standards in the interests of creating new fairer institutions. A fairly sizeable coalition of people in the West would like to see, for instance, Tony Blair at the dock.
@Anonymous 19.26 Agreed. You can blame Israel for many things but they’re not responsible for the Ukraine tragedy. It’s a Neocon enterprise not a Zionist one.
I don’t think Israel has any beef with Russia as such. Israel refused to condemn Russia’s intervention in Crimea despite the US.
There is always changing direction of our thoughts to ponder if the Neo-Con policy is not truly intended to benefit Russia. The men and institutions which make up the world wish for Russia and China and Europe to come together against the Anglo Zionist Imperium. Obama therefore doing his job of destroying Western credibility at least as much as Bush Jr.
To Anonymous in Finland 05 July, 2014 18:32
“Well these provocations are just a trap. It’s better to not be fooled.”
Nice to hear from Finland. Peive [hello]. I agree. Tensions run high in this situation and simple solutions look natural, but they aren’t. Russia must consider the bigger picture despite the sorrows, sorrows I know well after having studied the situation for months. I am with the people of Donbass.
In this age, we are interdependent in a way it is hard for us to understand. There is international law and interdependent economies. Visible international cash crunch for years already. Russia has longterm goals that are put in jeopardy by the Western provocation in Ukraine. All the Russias, there is not only one, would suffer. Ukraine would implode.
A Russian intervention will affect Europe badly, even if, unlikely, a big military confrontation can be avoided. Decisionmakers in Washington don’t seem to understand the US will also suffer in a conflict. If not in a direct way, then through ripple effects in the world economy.
Some expect the EU to break away from the US. I don’t see that happening. Why? Because the EU also has longterm plans. The Union is not ready yet.
The US has plans and we see one of them played out in Ukraine. Some years from now it will be obvious that the US made yet another mistake. There has been a change of ages. What worked yesterday does not work today.
If Russias hand is forced, Moscow may have to attempt to solve several problems at once. The [downplayed] Arctic problem [northern Scandinavia] and the Ukraine problem. In a military conflict, Central Europe would also be an obvious problem. Many grieve because of the situation in Ukraine, but please take a look at what is at stake. We are playing with fire.
Anonymous, greetings from riksi-ruotsalainen
KC said…05 July, 2014 20:33
“NOYER: BNP CASE WILL ENCOURAGE ‘DIVERSIFICATION’ FROM DOLLAR…..”But the phenomenon of U.S. rules expanding to all USD-denominated transactions around the world can have an accelerating effect.”
In other words, the head of the French central bank, and ECB member, Christian Noyer, just issued a direct threat to the world’s reserve currency (for now), the US Dollar.”
Well, you know what means. The ZPC/NWO will have to regime change and break up France now.
Robert said…05 July, 2014 20:51
“It’s a Neocon enterprise not a Zionist one.”
You probably don’t realise how silly that sounds. :D
UH.. same here, but it is obvious that Russia has drones / helicopters monitoring the border.
I wonder then just how much art/ly is used against the border.
вот так said…
@Robert 20:51
Considering that many of the leading neo-cons are dual U.S./Israeli citizens and sayanim, it’s absurd to pretend there’s a real cleavage between their cohort and the Jewish state.
The U.S. Jewish lobby and Jewish state constitute a single network, within which there are, of course, tactical differences and debates as to means, rather than ends.
As Netanyahu said to members of his own party regarding Jewish settlement construction: “What matters is that we continue to head straight toward our goal, even if one time we walk right and another time walk left.”
My understanding is that Putin is working with Merkel and Hollande to convince them that the outcome desired by the US is fatal to them too. Do they really expect things to continue as they were once the Ukrainian regime ceases killing its hated ‘moskals’? It will certainly continue playing games over the gas supply. If France and Germany stand with it, why on earth should Russia pay the price?
Russia has long proposed South Stream as a way of reliably supplying Europe with gas. The US has tried to scupper this. Why? It claims it would allow Russia to dictate to Europe. That is ludicrous as Russia could turn off the gas irrespective of the route it goes. The real reason South Stream is a problem for the US is that it would remove its chokehold over both Russia and Europe – gas going through Ukraine controlled by its puppet regime.
What happens when the Ukrainian regime ‘invites’ NATO in with ABM bases right on the border with Russia. This is a red line for Russia. I can see the Neo-Nazis continuing their border provocations and probable actual incursions in to Russia if they think they can get away with it.
The Neo-Nazis are a major problem. If they succeed in Ukraine (i.e. survive with political power), will that be enough? Even if they are ousted politically, they have access to weapons and training that they will exploit. They have made it clear their aim is for high stakes (gaining nuclear weapons and using them pre-emptively). Are France and Germany ready to have them on their territory too?
My view is that Putin is trying to get the major actors of the EU economy to act in their interests and not those of the US. The US has shown that it has no real ‘partners’ only disposable pawns. The recent treatment of BNP, the demands about the Mistral, the German spy issue and the leaked statements from Poland illustrate that. They can surely see that the US is prepared to destroy their economies (f*ck the EU) if necessary in order to destroy Russia.
I have no idea how Ukraine can survive, or in what form. Intact with Russians expelled? Two parts? Three parts? Individual oblasts? The IMF loans are conditional on an intact Ukraine. Otherwise renegotiation s required. The austerity measures (which the IMF know won’t work) are already underway will hit ordinary Ukrainians hard. No doubt Russia will be blamed for that too.
What a mess.
Anonymous 21:07
“The [downplayed] Arctic problem [northern Scandinavia]”
I’m not sure what you mean by that. Are you referring to potential disputes over resources in the Arctic that are becoming exploitable as a result of declining ice pack size?
pww: “The Western MSM is all too gullible and will lap it all up. After all, the MSM exists now to regurgitate whatever officialdom has to offer up because it requires no bureaus, no travel and no expenses outside a salary beyond the “stenographer-as-reporter.”
Not gullible at all: Rather, Orwellian.
Robert 20:51
“Israel refused to condemn Russia’s intervention in Crimea despite the US”
It didn’t support it either. It plays its usual game of hedging its bets, acting in its best interests.
Russia will win. It is only a question of time
http://journal-neo.org/2014/07/05/ukraine-kiev-s-ticking-time-bomb/
Kramatorsk too has been “liberated” with a pending “cleansing” operation:
Right now [the Ukrainian army] entered Kramatorsk. “Ukrainian Army entered Kramatorsk. They did not fire a shot. They hoisted the flag and went away,” Christian Malaparte, foreign blogger and one of the only two foreigners working in the city, wrote on his Facebook account. Meanwhile, the shelling of the city shows no signs of abating, he says, adding that Kramatorsk never saw the 10-day ceasefire, clinched last month.
Ukraine’s Kramatorsk sinks into ‘scary silence’ – Voice of Russia
RT reports the retreat as well
A column of DNR militia arrived from Slavyansk – which had been surrounded by the Kiev military – to Kramatorsk on Saturday night. However, the self-defense forces later left Kramatorsk as well and are now heading towards areas in the Donetsk region – such as the city of Gorlovka – which remain under militia control.
“Kramatorsk was difficult to defend because of its poor location. That’s why the Command decided to leave the city,” a representative of the DPR headquarters told RIA Novosti agency.
However, the source stated, small self-defense groups remain both in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk ready to fight with the Kiev forces.
Meanwhile in Kiev, some wild posturing of the impotent (they are but puppets on a string), just as predicted:
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk has announced that the military operation on “liberating Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from terrorists” has been accomplished, the government press-service reported on Saturday.
The country’s President Petro Poroshenko called the “liberation of Slavyansk” symbolic.
“It’s not a complete victory yet. But the clearing of Slavyansk from an armed to teeth gang of bigots has a huge symbolic meaning,” he said Saturday commenting on the issue, his official website reports. According to Poroshenko, it is a turning point “in the fight with terrorists for the territorial integrity of Ukraine” and for “the return to normal life” in the Donetsk region.
Poroshenko ordered authorities to provide humanitarian aid to residents of Slavyansk and other areas “liberated from militants”. He also promised that works to resume water and energy supply will start in the nearest future.
Donetsk militia confirm leaving stronghold cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk – RT news
Notice the keyword density: “liberation”, “terrorists”, “symbolic”. Straight from the propaganda textbook of the US State Department. Also remarkable, Porky’s and Yats’ schizophrenic announcement to restore what was destroyed by the very same people. You know, the murderers had to kill all the civilians in order to announce they have been liberated by their murderers. If that’s not insanity then I don’t know what actually is…
B.
@Robert @20:51
That’s why I take issue with the term “ZioNazi”. Neither Zionism nor Nazism have anything to do with it. Everyone knows what the NeoCons in the US State Dept. have in common with the oligarchs in Ukraine, yes? They are the ones who’ve financed this thing and keep it going, right? Compare that to what the alleged Nazis have contributed. Some muscle. Alas however, they are on video praising Jews while cursing Russians. Not exactly Nazis then, are they? Now put it all together and what’s left is a Judaic war against Russia the like of which hasn’t existed since the Tsar!
I think we’re all headed toward a terrible conflagration. It’s occurring environmentally, and it’s occurring on the politically and economically. I’m not entirely clear on all the misguided machinations that guide Russian ideology, but I’ve been observing the twisted reasoning of the American elite class and their spokes people for quite some time and with ever growing incredulity.
When dealing with distortions of reality in order to accomplish a human “plan,” in other words when dealing with stupidity, though I hesitate to call it that because of the effort it must take to follow a misguided ideology to its terminus, the best counter measure is to wait until the more stupid party is blundered by a turn of events beyond its ability to control. Putin has only to wait until that happens. Maybe when Ukraine can’t provide oil for heat this winter.
Very sad, but these are our times!
“The head of the hospital in Donetsk doctor said there is little medical staff, all who have stayed to work, treating wounded soldiers. “The number of wounded has doubled lately,” he said. “
Where the medical aid NGOs are?
Thank you, Grieved, for your references to the article by Tony Cartalucci. I intend to go to your link and read the whole article, but here’s a point that might be relevant.
The history being looked at here on Saker’s blog often goes back to Germany’s invasion of Russia to give the examples best suited to intervention. My thought is that the example may be Napoleon’s attempted invasion, and before folk jump on that, no, I am not saying let the imperial forces penetrate as far as Moscow.
What I am rather saying is, let them penetrate Ukraine. This is a mini invasion at best, being not the imperialists per se but their lackeys, and so Ukraine itself can stand in this instance for the entirety of Russia facing Napoleon’s triumphant armies.
So then, in Ukraine, the tactics Kotuzov used so successfully on the larger battlefield could be thought to have already progressed, in that the coup in Kiev has been accomplished – that is the equivalent of Napoleon in Moscow.
The successful strategy then and perhaps now is to wait. And maybe dust off that copy of “War and Peace.”
@Yonatan 05 July, 2014 21:42
You said:
“”The [downplayed] Arctic problem [northern Scandinavia]”
I’m not sure what you mean by that. Are you referring to potential disputes over resources in the Arctic that are becoming exploitable as a result of declining ice pack size?”
Yes, and the disputes are dangerous. Some years ago the Danish Navy sent ships to protect some land, perhaps only islands, from Canada. Both countries are NATO countries! This was downplayed in the MSM. The Arctic is a big potential problem because of its riches.
As best as I can tell, both the UK and France have land and water claims based on a couple of rocks, small islands, in the North. Russia, Norway, Denmark and Canada also have claims. The US never signed the UN convention. That probably means it can do what it wants. The Russians put a flag on the North Pole.
This is a forgotten or overlooked problem. A potential conflict over natural resources. Dangerous.
What’s up with Moldova?
http://indian.ruvr.ru/news/2014_07_04/Moldova-bans-Russia-24-TV-news-channel-from-broadcasting-in-its-territory-1203/
Goodness!
Don’t reply, be better than them. It will be deeply appreciated… in the next life!
It’s a trap, the US and EU will scream “Putin is the new Hitler!”. Folks, they are doing so already…
See the bigger picture. Which one? In the EU they have agreed about the new leadership, a xerocopy of the former. China won’t do more than it did already. The rest are US satellites or under US menace (Latin America). Who can be won by such politics?
Russia risks to lose access to Western credit. Western credit means getting real resources in exchange for green leaflets and computer bips. And anyway they don’t have enough for themselves: look at the EU, where Germany is cannibalizing its neighbours. Russia only needs technologies from the West, but when you have everything, from gas to palladium, you will always find someone ready to trade or smuggle with you (see Austria).
Gentlemen, there must be something else that ties Putin’s hands, but if he doesn’t do anything or doesn’t speak up, Donbass risks to be his political grave.
Rockerduck
The interviews available at pro-Donbass sources with militia members, volunteers and leaders all indicate a very loose structure, thinly manned, loosely commanded militia. The professionals with them are few, and the target selections are haphazard at times.
Even the two centers of politics are divided, not very unified, Donetsk and Lugansk.
Putin and the military have watched them for 3 months. Probably, judged them too weak to reinforce in the short run and needed to rebuild them. Thus, the commander-in-chief, Stelkov, was moved back to Donetsk to do the rebuild.
One report says the militia gets new men joining when their families take losses. So the base is not ideologically ready for full engagement in a war. There is disbelief among Russians in Ukraine that the hatred is upon them
Luckily, the Ukie regulars are timid, also.
Everyone in the interviews agrees that this will drag on until winter plays a roll, gas becomes critical and INternational developments are in the bag for Russia.
They need a no fly zone, or air support or artillery of their own to nullify the Ukie army.
I would add this: it was good not to fight street to street, house to house in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. That would give the Ukies’ valuable experience they could use against the Russian soldiers later or when they try to finish off the militia.
Given the famous leaders of the militia that I can count, the front line numbers are not more than 2000. Maybe many thousands more as guards at various roadblocks and crucial buildings. But, this Donbass war is tiny for what it hopes to accomplish.
They have God and Liberty in their camp. Bravery and good morale.
Phase I is ending.
July brings a new Phase. No one can predict what that portends.
But they know of the slaughter at Mariupol because there were very insufficient militia formed in that city.
Regrouping will give them better command and force protection.
None of them expected Putin to charge in with the 58th Army like he did in Georgia.
These are just my impression of translations using Yandex. But it covered numerous sources from many locations.
The most interesting was a short letter from a Serb. He commands a unit of Serb volunteers. He pledged support to Putin and recognized that soldiers are pawns. And war was politics. Putin was the right man, the King using the pawns.
Bottom line: keep the resistance funded to the extent possible for as long as possible. Kiev is playing into the hands of the resistance in every way. The only that works in Ukraine is guns and cash – and ideological division.
On the flip side, total economic war on the west. Possibly the USSR citizenship law and various measures to attract human capital from Ukraine.
Urban and behind-the-lines guerilla resistance has barely started. Kiev has achieved nothing except creating a terror state. It will get to a point when Germany begs Russia to intervene and an internationally blessed mechanism will be found to do so.
In the process, a lot of innocent people have already died, from Maidan on, and it’s going to get worse.
Anonymous 22:31
Thanks for the confirmation and the update.
Larchmonter455 22:52
That’s a good point about not training the Ukies how run urban warfare. Let them find out the hard way if necessary.
Anonymous 23:07
“It will get to a point when Germany begs Russia to intervene”
A few days ago, I came across a report (but failed to log it) that suggested Putin was trying to get Hollande and Merkel to realize they were all on the same side (peaceful trading) and for them to support a the idea of Russian peace keeping force to protect civilians. Maybe that is now irrelevant. On the other hand, Putin may be leading the Ukies into a trap by not immediately responding to their shelling of Russian border territory. Concentrated attacks from Donbass militia units against them could possibly cause a few to retreat over the border if that was the only way out. Causus belli for military intervention!
This war is being fought across 8 theatres. How does Russia’s current posture (taking blows and not retaliating) affect each theatre?
1. Media (propaganda) war. Undermines the ukie victims vs russian aggressors narrative.
2. Finance (petrodollar) war. No effect.
3. Trade (gas pipeline) war. Undermines ZATO efforts to blockade EU-Russia trade.
4. Diplomacy (BRICS vs G7) war. Assists Russian efforts to drive wedge between US and Germany.
5. SIGINT (intercepts) war. Assists Russian efforts to collect evidence (more attacks mean more communication).
6. HUMINT (oligarchs) war. No effect.
7. BLACKOP (false flags) war. Increases probability ZATO will resort to fabricating a Russian attack.
8. Military war. Increases probability of damage to Russian border assets / personnel.
Given the overall picture Russia’s current posture is strategically optimal even accounting for near negligible damage to border assets and heightened risk of false flags.
Vortex
вот так said…05 July, 2014 18:20
“I’ve been wondering why that hasn’t been done yet.”
After reading the comments, I can see why the Russians have not replied in kind.
The US narrative of “defending” Ukraine against Putin’s imperialism and neo-Soviet tyranny is currently entirely discredited. European countries are losing the will to support the US venture because Russia’s finely judged actions have shown the narrative to be bogus. Poroshenko is making himself and his government look like the morally bankrupt stooges they are. Support for him is visibly falling away and will continue to do so. Time, in that sense, is on our side.
If Russia takes military action now then all this gain is instantly lost. The US will once again be able to assume spurious moral high ground and the EU will feel forced to back the demands for sanctions. NATO will sabre rattle itself closer to open confrontation and the whole world will move closer to an apocalyptic war.
And what would be gained? Will the dead be brought back to life? No, on the contrary probably even more will die. Will US hegemony be less potent? No, on the contrary, it will be strengthened.
The only beneficiaries from Russian intervention right now will be the lunatic warmongers in Washington – which is why it is they who are pushing hardest to make Russia intervene.
I think all of us who want world peace, justice and a multi-polar world should be backing Russia’s carefully modulated response right now.
It’s the world’s best hope.
The West is ‘boiling a frog’, and that ‘frog’ is Russia. The ‘light’ provocative shelling of Russia is a very carefully calculated tactic. Its purpose, as with so many zionist psy-ops, is very devious.
The shelling is designed to give ‘plausible affirmation’ of covert Russian forces in Ukraine- the logic being that if Russia is attacked, and does nothing overtly, it is obviously because Russia is doing something ‘covertly’ in response. But here’s the rub. The CLAIM of Russia’s ‘covert’ activity in Ukraine is the engine that drives the every increasing range of punitive sanctions imposed against Russia by the West.
Now the sanctions serve two purposes. Firstly, to damage Russia and make Russia seem like a pariah state (in the same ‘category’ as Iran, Syria, North Korea and Palestine).
Secondly to make the West seem like the ‘schoolmaster’ and Russia like the ‘naughty pupil’ bending over for whacks of the cane. This humiliates Russia in the eyes of the neutral powers.
Sadly, idiots that read garbage like The Guardian or the New York Times think themselves part of an ‘educated debate’ because the zionist mock-journalists are trained to spew thousands of words of pseudo-intellectual nonsense that always seems very ‘clever’ to their readers, especially those from ex-Soviet nations who were trained, Pavlovian fashion, to respond to such forms of propaganda.
The USA has openly declared that Russia and China pose the greatest threat to US hegemony, and their highest military planners are actively planning for global warfare against both competing powers. The Americans, the ultimate racists on the planet, consider the Chinese to be ‘racially’ ‘inferior’. But they cannot use this thinking against the Russians, so Russia is ‘enemy number one’, and also the easiest of the two to defeat (in US eyes).
The weapon to be deployed against the Russians is NOT an overt war, but a million ‘piranhas’ biting at Russian flesh wherever it is visible. The intention is to break the will of the Russian people, and damage the body so badly, that it just fails and collapses in on itself.
Under no circumstances must Russia be allowed to act cleanly, neatly and successfully. A liberation of East Ukraine, triggering a division of the old land into two or more new nations is exactly what the West must prevent at all costs.
“Don’t act, Putin- instead read this 200 page treaty of pseudo-intellectual garbage on why clean actions are the worst.” And the monsters of the West sit back and howl with laughter as even Russia’s ‘friends’ end up producing such windy ‘arguments’ of their own as they desperately seek to appear ‘clever’ like a dim-witted student trying to impress their college professor.
“He [Poroshenko] also promised that works to resume water and energy supply will start in the nearest future.”
The zionazi signature right there! This modus operandi was used against Serbia during the 1999 bombing.
(cont)
– Facing the military units directly within an area is too costly.
– Instead, keep destroying the civilian infrastructure to force the opponent’s state / military leadership to understand that defending the surrounded / targeted area is not “worth the price” (M. Albright, anyone?). I.e., the toll on the [enemy] civilians, from your prospective, is always “worth the price!”
– Once the defense of the targeted area fails / retreats, play the “savior” game by rebuilding the very infrastructure you destroyed in order to “show that you care about” the very civilians you were killing until one minute ago, and the problem for the targeted area wasn’t yourself, but those who legally defended it.
I.e., giving them back what they had before you intervened, you are as “humane” as it gets! At the same time, you “saved” them from the misery your “subhuman criminal” opponent “inflicted upon them.”
– Declare a “victory,” & celebrate yet another “advancement of democracy” through the ministry of truth.
– Finally, put it into textbooks / movies / games to bring up yet another generation of mass-murderers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7I0Shw8SrA299
Ukies are clearly trying to provoke a Russian action to pass themselves as victims and give their US masters the excuse they need to tighten their grip on Europe. I hope Putin doesn’t cave in to emotional pressure and keep steady, as this is a play for power and continued existence of US hegemony. Sure, we will all rejoice when the Russian army smashes the Ukie cowards to a pulp, but the price for that is playing right into the US hands and giving them a few more years of sabotaging foreign countries, sucking foreign economies dry for their own gain and installing quislings on their own “allies”. One small town lost to the Nazis is not a major setback; in fact, it may be just what is needed to make the whole people of Donbass rally and fight. Slavyansk will be a symbol, either way. So, no hysterics. No matter how much we’d like (me first) to see the Nazis destroyed to the last man and those little shits in Kiev pay for everything.
G’day,
Robert 05 July, 2014 20:51 said:
‘You can blame Israel for many things but they’re not responsible for the Ukraine tragedy. It’s a Neocon enterprise not a Zionist one.’
As Bot Tak rightly said: ‘You probably don’t realise how silly that sounds.’
Neocons are Judaics and so are Zionists! The Jews always HIDE their identity behind labels. Be aware that the Rothschilds (often with help from their proteges, the Rockefellers in the 20th Century) created the Illuminati, the Jacobins, Capitalism, the Fabians, Socialists, Communists, Bolsheviks, Zionists, Neocons and all the other “Movements” such as Consumerism, Feminism, Teen Ageism, New Ageism etc.
Cahokia probably said it best:
‘@Robert 20:51
Considering that many of the leading neo-cons are dual U.S./Israeli citizens and sayanim, it’s absurd to pretend there’s a real cleavage between their cohort and the Jewish state.
The U.S. Jewish lobby and Jewish state constitute a single network, within which there are, of course, tactical differences and debates as to means, rather than ends.’
Also, the suggestion that Israel has no beef with Russia because it refused to condemn Russia’s intervention in Crimea is a bit naive. Israel’s “condemnation” was not required and would have added nothing to US calumnies.
Arguably Israel was merely pretending to be neutral because Israel, like the US, is controlled by Judaic banksters in the City of London and elsewhere. They do not ordinarily live in Israel but they OWN it.
Suggesting that Israel has no beef with Russia implies that it is somehow not an integral part of global Jewry which is an untenable proposition.
As with the Jews’ COUP mislabelled the “Russian Revolution” in Imperial Russia in 1917, this Kiev Coup was orchestrated and paid for by US Jews (and by the Jew controlled US Administration) and Jewish Ukrainian oligarchs. The result is that Jews now control the Kiev Junta and key governorships in Ukraine. Moreover, as with the Bolshevik “Revolution” in Russia in 1917, key Kiev Junta Jews like Kolomoyskyi have organised holocausts in Odessa and the torture, maiming and/or murder of thousands of non-Jews in Ukraine.
If global Jewry (and Israel) didn’t agree with the Kiev Junta’s genocidal activities and/or the US condemnation of Russia, the global Jew controlled mainstream media would be screaming opposition to the Kiev Coup and the US fomenting of that coup. It isn’t.
Blessings,
Ron
** important **
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_07_06/Ukraines-National-Guard-plots-provocations-off-Russian-border-Lugansk-Peoples-Republic-6030/
“Subversive teams disguised as self-defense fighters and wearing St. George ribbons are planning mortar attacks on the above towns in order to undermine people’s trust in the self-defense corps.
The Ukrainian side may also attempt to blame Russia for the upcoming provocations, the report says.”
.
Ukrainian forces hit a building in the city center and “huge black smoke” was seen in the area, an eyewitness from Lugansk told RT via Skype. He added that a warehouse was burning.
“I can often hear explosions or shooting. I can hear it every five to ten minutes,” said the man, who is currently in the eastern part of Lugansk.
Several explosions were reportedly heard in the Lugansk airport area, and the movement of military equipment was observed in the town of Schastie, near Lugansk.
The previous night mortar shelling took place near the Lugansk airport, but there are no further reports of casualties so far.
On Saturday, the health minister of the Lugansk People’s Republic said at least 80 people had been treated in Lugansk hospitals after a day of bombing and gunfire from Ukrainian forces. He said 56 of the injured were civilians.
On Sunday in Lugansk city center, people were collecting signatures for an appeal to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Locals want to ask the UN to stop Kiev’s aggression towards civilians, they said.
Meanwhile, Kiev said it would not bombard armed groups in Lugansk and Donetsk from the air. “The tactics of the Ukrainian Army, the National Guard and the Border Service are such that massive bombardment of residential areas is excluded,” Andrey Lysenko, spokesman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council said on Sunday. He added that special forces would also be operating in cities.
Is this because Russia has imposed a no fly zone over those cities?