Konstantin Sivkov,
Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Sciences
for information policy, Doctor of Military Sciences
Translated by Scott Humor
https://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/53576
The American withdrawal from Syria is inevitable. It will proceed voluntary with minimal reputational, material, and human losses or it will be forced by the pressure of irregular armed formations. In the latter case, it will be perceived as a shameful military defeat with significant losses in personnel, equipment, and resources.
An American convoy was shelled by the Pro-Turkish militants. There were no casualties. The convoy was probably under cover of a special operations force unit. There is no doubt that the Pro-Turkish militants knew well who they were shelling. This event is a manifestation of very serious developments in the situation in Syria, fraught with dangerous consequences for the United States.
Attention is drawn to the fact that the convoy was fired on by Pro-Turkish militants. Just like that, without the knowledge of their curators from Ankara, this could not happen. They had to at least confirm a neutral attitude of Ankara to the action. That is, quite serious; forces are interested in ending the American presence in Syria.
Force without a social base
Damascus needs to restore the territorial integrity of Syria. American troops are an obstacle in achieving this. Moreover, it has long been obvious that the United States initiated the civil war in Syria, spawned so called “fighters for democracy” and continue to plunder its natural resources. The fight of the United States against the Dash (banned in our country) was more of an imitation nature, pursuing the goal of not destroying the terrorist organization, but taking it under control. Moreover, US troops in Syria are illegally and in accordance with international law they are the aggressors. It is unlikely that the Kurds loyal to the Americans will treat G. I.s well. The United States abandoned them in the most difficult moment, leaving them one on one with the Turkish military machine, the second most powerful army of NATO (and if you take only the land component and morale, then certainly the first, superior to the American). The Kurds, to survive, had to negotiate with the legitimate Syrian government, which they did. So for the American contingent it’s not worth it to wait for their support. On the contrary, the Kurds, in order to earn a better place in Syrian society, after their attempts to participate in the partition of the country in alliance with the American aggressors, might begin active hostilities against former allies.
The surviving militants of Islamic radical organizations after the US strikes on their leaders, in particular the destruction of the leader of the Daesh “al-Baghdadi,” are also unlikely to remain on the sidelines if the opportunity to take a revenge presents itself.
The “democratic” Syrian opposition, which is under Turkish control, seems to have realized that the armed struggle in Syria will be completed in the near future. The most important sign for them can be the agreements reached by the presidents of Russia and Turkey. This means that they will have to re-integrate into the Syrian political field. Accordingly, they need decent groundwork, without which it is hardly possible to count on something. The negative image of the opposition in the mass consciousness, left by its participation in the war on the side of the aggressor, can be compensated by the contribution to the expulsion of Americans from Syria. Moreover, Turkey will most likely look at their actions as “pranks,” favorably and might even help. After all, the United States did not find anything better than “stepping on a sore Turkish corn”: it recognized the Armenian genocide that took place 1915 and, in addition, imposed economic sanctions against Ankara. The Turkish leadership is not yet ready to directly take really effective measures against the United States, for example, to expel it from Incirlik military base. But to hint to the Americans by shelling the American troops by Turkey controlled militants is quite acceptable. If they do not understand, there may be more “hints” with personnel loses.
The Americans have no reason to count on the full loyalty of the local Arab tribes. They are well aware that the United States in Syria is the losing side. To appear as collaborators with the expelled aggressor for them worth very little‑-the aggressor will leave, and will abandon them to answer before the lawful government of the country. In such situation, it would be a boon for the Americans if these tribes remained simply neutral. But there will always be some “passionaries” and offended who will want to settle scores with invaders.
So today, the United States has no social base in Syria to maintain a military presence. Nevertheless, the American leadership shows no desire to leave the country. Rather, on the contrary–by withdrawing fighters from areas that have lost importance, into the most important oil-bearing region of Syria, Washington stays and even assumes to increase its troops numbers and weapons. Obviously, the US is betting on its military power in the hope that Syria and its allies will not dare to face a direct clash, and that they will cope with irregular armed formations. Several such incidents took place already, and the Americans defeated some hostile groups that infiltrated into the Eastern Euphrates.
The United States is right to assume that Damascus and its allies in the face of Moscow, Tehran and especially Ankara will never go to a direct armed conflict. But their confidence in their own ability to withstand the blows of irregular armed formations is greatly exaggerated. After all, the lessons of hybrid wars unleashed by the Americans in different regions of the world have already been well learned by their victims and other countries. And these knowledge can be successfully used against the G. I.s in Syria.
The probable methods of hybrid warfare against the Americans are determined by the characteristics of their activities, bases and composition of their groups. The US contingent in Syria is relatively small — about two thousand people. They are stationed within the bases, equipped with engineering and have a powerful defense system, as well as at the protected facilities of the occupied oil complex of Syria in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The main us base – “Al-TANF” in the province of HOMS near the border with Iraq. On its territory the American have heavy weapons, armored vehicles (but no tanks as of yet, according to open sources), MLRS and HIMARS. The perimeter and surrounding areas are constantly patrolled. The Americans are building two new bases in the province of Deir ez-Zor near the village of Sur. To do this, an additional contingent of up to 300 people was sent to the district. Between bases and protected objects of the occupied oil extracting complexes the Americans move columns of troops and vehicles transferring oil it carried out. Supply is mainly by air. The AL-TANF base is supplied by the ground from Iraq.
This is not Khmeimim
Analysis of the basing system and the activities of the US forces in Syria suggests that the irregular armed formations can force them to leave by causing unacceptable damages, blockade of bases, and protected facilities. For strikes they will use drones and shells (both industrial and artisanal production). Routes of movement of the American troops and convoys will be mines. The flank attacks using MANPADS and rockets launchers are expected.
Examples of such actions were the attempts of the rebels from Idlib to use UAVS against our base in Khmeimim. These attacks have not reached the goal – they were all rebuffed. However, the American bases are another case.
First, they can be attacked from almost all directions, whereas Khmeimim was attacked only from Idlib, where terrorist groups were surrounded. The remote distance of Idlib did not allow militants to use short-range rockets. They didn’t have any others. What remained were only the handcrafted drones. In case of the American bases, the situation is exactly the opposite — U.S. troops sit in isolation, and the “irregulars” are free to choose any position and direction of the strike. So, the Americans need to create an omni-directional air defense system designed to deflect a wide range of different SVN or средства воздушного нападения (means of air strike) — from handmade UAVS to quite modern RS (rocket projectiles).
Secondly, American troops do not have effective air defenses capable of repelling attacks of the simplest drones. Oddly enough, the US NAVY has no effective small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery. Long-range air defense is represented by the SAM “Patriot”, which unable to do anything against such targets as homemade UAV. And short-range SAMS are represented by models, which are based on the missile complex “Stinger” with thermal Heatseeker (Тепловая головка самонаведения), effective against aircraft with jet and turboprop engines, helicopters, etc., but powerless against handmade drones.
What remains is the 25-mm gun of the Bradley IFV with a night vision collimator. It can fire at air targets at the range of up to three kilometers. But its effectiveness on the handmade or just a small UAV is unlikely to be higher than the heavy machine guns MZA of the World War II on the aircraft of the time: then also fired using collimator vision. That is, one “Bradley” will be able to shoot down the drone during its stay in the fire zone at a speed of about 40-80 kilometers per hour with a probability of no more than 15-25 percent. It is extremely small for effective reflection of group RAID. And when shooting at night, the probability of hitting the UAV will decrease to several percent – “Bradley,” even with the help of its highly effective passive means of night surveillance, will be difficult to detect and accompany such a target as a small drone, due to its low visibility in the infrared spectrum. They’ll have to use floodlights, as in World War II. But even in this case, it will be very difficult to detect a small-sized low-noise target in the sky, even with the targeting from the air surveillance radar.
An attempt to use EW means and, intercepting the control of the UAV, taking it aside or landing on its territory will be effective only against semi-autonomous drones controlled from the ground. But the target can be completely autonomous, carrying out flight according to the set program. In this case, EW won’t help. However, the dispersion of UAV drop points might be wide. But their target is also rather big – an entire base. And UAVS can arrive in large numbers making total damage from them to be very noticeable, especially if expressed in wounded and dead soldiers. The losses might be great enough for the militants of irregular armed formations to “squeeze out” the Americans from Syria.
Even more effective might be the strikes on the protected and used by the Americans objects of the oil production complexes. How effective this can be has been demonstrated in Saudi Arabia by the Houthis. At the same time, losses among the troops personnel can be serious.
As the Russian experience shows, an effective tool to combat such a threat is the ZAK (anti-aircraft artillery systems), which have their own radar for reviewing the airspace and a shooting station, ensuring the defeat of an air target in automatic mode without the inclusion of an operator. Such, in particular, is the Russian anti aircraft missiles and gun complex “Pantsir-S”. But in the United States, it has no analogues. The last anti-aircraft gun the M163 Vulcan Air Defense System (VADS) which was a 20-mm six-barreled aircraft gun “Volcano,” coupled with a shooting radar and placed on the chassis of the APC M-113, has long been removed from service. Of course, Americans can rent something similar in other countries. For example, in Saudi Arabia, where there are about a hundred M-163. However, this complex was removed from service because its firing range is about 1.5 kilometers, and the probability of hitting the target is low – from 0.05 to 0.4, depending on the type of SVN(means of air strike). In addition, it does not have its own radar survey of airspace. Yes, there is a German Cheetah. It is able to solve the problem of combating small-sized UAVS with acceptable efficiency. The complex was created on chassis of “Leopard-1” tank with appropriate for a tank size and mass. So their transfer to Syria in the near future is very problematic.
The Americans have no antidote against rockets at all. Meanwhile, as experience shows, the militants may use single launchers of industrial production on a simple tripod, for example for 122-mm shells from “Grad” or similar and make their own makeshift rocket, they can get help from irregular armed groups who already have such experience, such as Hezbollah, which itself willing to join the fight against the Americans. At the same time, as in the example with the UAV, the requirements for accuracy are extremely lax – the target is large and you just need to hit it. A projectile can cause serious damage. Thus, the 21-kilogram combat unit of the Grad RS creates a zone of destruction of manpower and light armored vehicles with a radius of more than a dozen meters.
The Americans have one real way to deal with such a threat – the destruction of UAV launch groups and RS before they strike. However, it is very difficult to provide real-time control of space within a radius of 40-50 kilometers from the base by existing forces. The main problem will be not so much the detection of groups of people, animals and equipment as to classify them: who they are, are they a threat or not. How difficult it is, can be judged by a long-known episode in the post-war Iraq, when in Baghdad (the capital, where the highest density of occupational troops) Apache helicopters shot a group of TV journalists only because the pilots could not distinguish the camera from the MANPADS. In the desert at night, under the threat to be shot by a MANPADS or a machine gun, it is impossible to identify a real threat. The Americans will simply have to declare no-go zones around their bases with the destruction within them of all suspicious objects. This will inevitably lead to casualties among the local population and as a consequence the locals will join the ranks of those who want to get even with the Americans.
To sum up: US bases in Syria are extremely vulnerable. And if they have not yet suffered damage, it is only because no one has yet set a task to attack them. And when such a decision is made, the loss of Americans will begin to grow rapidly.
Militants, of course, will deploy the “war on communications” to isolate American bases and cause losses in personnel and equipment on the routes. The whole set of means and methods of action, which is well known from guerrilla wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries, can be applied here. In addition to the arsenal that has been already used there, it’s reasonable to expect the large-scale use of ATGMs and MANPADS. Irregular armed formation fighters may have these weapons in sufficient quantity.
With this development, the existing contingents of US troops in Syria will not be able to exist for a long time even with intensive air support by tactical and carrier-based aircraft. Therefore, if the US leadership decides to stay and gain a foothold, it will be necessary to radically strengthen the group deployed here. Then it will be possible to reliably control the territories at a sufficient distance to ensure the safety of bases, as well as cover communications. It seems that the American leadership has chosen this path and is preparing for the upcoming war with the guerrillas, having decided to build up their group. Statements have already been made by representatives of the American establishment about the decision to send tanks to Syria.
Each posting of the convoy on communications will be built in the form of a full-fledged military operation with the appropriate expenditure of forces and means. But even in the presence of heavily armored vehicles with aircraft, tangible losses are inevitable, since the militants have enough means to fight, including the most modern ones. In American society, it will be perceived as being drawn into another Afghanistan or worse – Vietnam. Of course, the losses of the militants will likely be an order of magnitude greater, but after all, they have much less sensitivity. In addition, public opinion in Syria will certainly support those fighting against the American aggressor.
The United States has no real reason – neither political, nor social, nor military-strategic – to stay in Syria for any significant political or economic period. The sooner the American leadership understands this, the better it is for them. Trump seems to have realized this, so he seeks to get rid of the Syrian “suitcase without a handle.” However, an influential part of the overseas elite thinks otherwise or wants to create problems for Trump in the upcoming elections
It can be assumed that the fate of the American contingent in Syria will be decided in the next year: the United States will leave this country.
Thanks Scott and “Speedily in our times”
This is an interesting article regarding the speculation about ways the pindo illegal presence in Syria can be eliminated. The discussion of strengths and weaknesses of american defenses, especially vs the sort of drones the israeloamericans equipped the terrorists with in Syria which the Russians had no oroblem eliminating, is especially interesting and useful.
But there were also a few things…
“It is unlikely that the Kurds loyal to the Americans will treat G. I.s well.”
Depends which kurds. The quisling leadership and their underlings, or the general population. The latter who may now wish to go a different direction than their leadership. The former are sticking with israel and their american gofers.
“The surviving militants of Islamic radical organizations after the US strikes on their leaders, in particular the destruction of the leader of the Daesh “al-Baghdadi,” are also unlikely to remain on the sidelines if the opportunity to take a revenge presents itself.”
What sort of revenge did israeloamerica’s terrorists take when pindos “killed” bin laden? Yeah, none. They continued attacking those israeloamerica directed them to attack. I wouldn’t expect daesh/al qaida attacks on americans, other than falseflags and occasional propaganda actions. They are run by israeloamerica. Some could “go rogue”, of course, but the others would be used against them. Sort of like the infighting among the terrorist groups locked into Idlib. In other words, a terrorist civil war. Look how minimal daesh/al qaida attacks on us/nato forces have been the last few years. That should provide an idea about how seriously these proxies will attack american or nato troops in Syria.
“The “democratic” Syrian opposition,…If they do not understand, there may be more “hints” with personnel loses.”
I think a very large reason for Turkish turnabout was the failed gulen coup, orchestrated by israeloamerica, larger that the others the author mentions. With that coup attempt, Turkey had to understand that their survival as a sovereign state depended on finding new associates, since the zpc/nwo had placed them on the chopping block.
Right now, as Turk membership in nato is more useful than they’re leaving, I expect they wont do anything overt that will initiate expulsion. But conversely, israeloamerica wants them out, and will, at the very least, initiate provocations to try and get the sort of Turk response that can be used to denato Turkey.
“The Americans have no reason to count on the full loyalty of the local Arab tribes.”
From what I understood from reading analysis by Sarah Abed, the israeloamerican run kurds abused and ethnic cleansed these local people. Very unlikely they would ally with the pindo occupation. Even more than from the Kurdish population, I would expect resistance from the local Arabs.
“The United States has no real reason – neither political, nor social, nor military-strategic – to stay in Syria for any significant political or economic period.”
Which makes it rather obvious israel/zionazis are calling the shots here, and using their pindo gofers to provide the muscle.
“The sooner the American leadership understands this, the better it is for them. Trump seems to have realized this, so he seeks to get rid of the Syrian “suitcase without a handle.”
What trump is doing is saying he wants to leave Syria as a pr cover for moves designed to keep pindo forces in Syria. He’s talking govno. That is what he has been doing from the beginning.
He’s the guy who motions you over, all friendly like. And while you are engaged with him, his associate stabs you in the back. He’s the good cop, telling people what the psywar specialists (all zionazi-gay israeli loyalists) determined would influence them positively. The bad cop, the actions this quisling regime actually does. He’s the greaser.
“However, an influential part of the overseas elite thinks otherwise or wants to create problems for Trump in the upcoming elections”
Who are these critters?
Personally, I don’t see Syria taking the violence route to regain their territory now under israeloamerican control. I think they will use peaceful methods, instead, and encourage locals under the occupation to use more or less non violent methods.
Another way to isolate the israeloamericans, and make their departure necessary, can be done by Iraq. There is a large number of people there, in government and outside, who want the american/nato forces removed. Iraq can end access of their country for continued aggression against Syria by israeloamerica. Without Iraq access, the israeloamericans would only be able to supply their occupation forces in NE Syria by air.
Decades of allying themselves with the MOSSAD and the Zionazis have brought the Kurds nothing. Perhaps one day they will realise that as far as the Zionazi elite are concerned they, like us all, are nothing but goy scum.
Do not let your guard down.
The war is not over.
Vanessa Beeley offers a very disturbing warning that America is actually planning to double down on its sponsorship of ISIS terrorists by creating a Super ISIS:
“Various Arabic language media outlets have reported that the United States is planning to produce a Super ISIS – an even more radical, violent version of the group’s previous incarnation. Hessam Sho’aib, a Syrian military expert on terrorist organizations, announced to Sputnik Arabic that various reports from U.S. “think tanks” indicate the heralding in of an ISIS renaissance in Syria and Iraq. The reports, according to Sho’aib, also allude to U.S. intelligence involvement in the birth of ISIS, its apparent demise, as well as its rebirth. A rebirth that would ensure the sustained recycling of terrorism and the perpetual destabilization of the region.”
ISIS Captives Offer a Convenient Pawn in Turkey’s Syria Chess Game
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2019/11/14/isis-captives-offer-a-convenient-pawn-in-turkeys-syria-chess-game/
Nothing in life is more certain than that. Daash will never go away until its controllers, financiers and providers of armaments, the USA, NATO, Israel and Sordid Barbaria, are brought to their knees. In other words, never. Not until The End.
Exactly correct Mulga. These people are the very personification of pure evil.
Not sure how valid this might be. It sounds a lot like a fear and encouragement propaganda piece i.e. put the fear of God into your enemies and encourage your wilting ISIS proxy army that they are going to get a huge shot in the arm, to try and stop them from defecting in huge numbers.
So called “think tanks” have been used for a variety of purposes, often less to do with strategic thinking and more with propaganda tactics.
Also, they all, surely, have to know that if they produce a bigger, more violent, more invasive ISIS, it will just bring Russian forces back – bigger and stronger and quicker to strike than before.
And on their past experience of the Russians, I cant see any of them wanting that.
That’s the exact thought I had while reading this article .
There can be no clearer warning than this. With its tactic of using a proxy army of foreign fighters to pretend to be Syrian rebels now in tatters, Hegemon must either step up to the plate with a rapid troops deployment, an act of war, or to succumb to the reality and quietly withdraw.
It is noteworthy that Erdogan is in Washington as this statement from Konstantin Sivkov is released. I suspect that he is there to assure Mr. Trump that he has no good options, and for a change, to be the Commander in Chief and dictate a withdrawal. The PR fallout would be miniscule compared to images of flag draped coffins, and Mr. Sivkov is making it clear that there will be either a quiet withdrawal of there will be flag draped coffins.
Even if Hegemon could deploy enough tanks etc to fend off a direct assault, the spectre of random, incessant, and deadly drone and missile attacks will destroy the morale of any soldier stationed in al-Tanf or elsewhere.
The end of the fight for Idlib is near, and then attention can be turned to the illegal presence.
What is the point of relying on international law, if the United States regime continuously flouts international law, commits the ultimate war crime – aggression; again and again, and is currently not only illegally occupying Syria, But stealing its Oil.
Appeals to the United States and its vassals to respect international law and the territorial integrity of Syria, is akin to asking a starving lion not to eat you. Ain’t going to happen.
A question: what is the connection between the current protests in Iraq to unseat the Govt, and what is happening in the east of Syria, i.e close to the Iraqi border. Where does Syria’s stolen oil go? Through Iraq?
The swine need to be driven out. As I’ve said before, blockade them and send in the drones as a start. And the Syrian Govt needs to issue very clear warnings about unauthorised aircraft in its airspace.
There has been no International law since at least the Reich attack on Serbia and the FRY,the only thing the US Reich understands is force and violence.
but but…
amerikkkans will be protected by x-man magneto
he will swipe his hand and all them attack drones will drop to the ground like rotten apples
Just sabotage the logistics. Those troops need fuel for their vehicles and generators that keep those nice aircos and refrigerators running.
Cut the power supply.
Block the main roads.
Bomb the landing strips.
And then let’s see how long they want to stay. The objective is to prevent the rebuilding of Syria. The only stakeholder in this is Israel, so the US militaries are just their mercs while apparently the IDF is too chicken to do it themselves.
Cheers, Rob
Hi Rob:
Nice post. Clear n concise.
I believe that is exactly what we are about to witness, along with so much more.
Interesting times ahead
Cheers
That is what makes the most sense.
The picture of an isolated outpost slowly starving to death is not going to be pretty.
Kind of like the terrified white settlers in Kenya surrounded by the Mau Mau. Drums beating in the night . . .
I should think it would not be too hard to spook the illegals in these isolated camps.
A few days without water should do the trick . . .
IOW, it sounds like a classic siege situ.
Katherin
Where is Bibi in all this? I’m assuming he is the main motivator behind US remaining in Syria.
Bibi et al control all US politics. ‘Motivating’ Trump is the least of it.
For two years I have commented numerous times of the strategy expounded by Konstantin Sivkov,
Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Military Sciences in this article.
I referred in those comments to General Giap, the genius of North Vietnam who defeated the French and then the Americans in a prolonged struggle of independence.
The US bases in Syria are easily pierced by missiles, rockets and artillery, leaving the troops within as easy targets of shrapnel, white hot and terrifying. Add UAVs with small bombs and grenades, and no one will be sleeping at night in these bases.
It is coming. There are easily 100,000 irregulars in Syria and Iraq who will gleefully participate in these tactics against the US troops. Payback to the Hegemon will be hellish. And long overdue, in this part of the ME.
The election year will add fuel to the fire under CENTCOM. Trump does not want to greet scores of coffins at Dover AFB. He wants to rant at election rallies. USA. USA. America First cannot abide a debacle in the sands of Syria.
I was very happy that this expert has spoken and reaffirmed by estimation of how the US leaves Syria.
It will be bloody and useless. Exactly as Vietnam was. They never learn.
It is simple, my good friend. When they are shooting at you when you leave, you lost, as in Vietnam, Kampuchea, Laos, NK, Irak, Kosovo (didn’t hear about that, did you?) and now Syria. The end is neigh, the election is next year. President Trump has to get out or the media election news will show the flagged draped coffins 24/7 ad nausam.
Auslander
автор
Never The Last One, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Excellent comment.
Agree completely both tactically and strategically on what is about to ‘go down’
Great reference to General Giap.
I can almost see it now, the summer of 2020 and the “Orangeman” declaring “Mission Accomplished” in Syria, heading into the Fall ‘POTUS’ Reality Show. This of course will be after much blood shed through the winter.
I seen this episode before.
I do not think it will be a repeat of a UH-1 hovering over a certain US Embassy.
It’s not good TV…
Enormous appreciation for this piece.
What a gem is Saker’s blog.
A piece of this quality is rare to find elsewhere.
Will enjoy giving this a second and even a third read.
HUMAN & INFRASTRUCTURE SHIELDS
One of the most overlooked / not recognised factors in US occupation stratey is the use of the ‘precious shield’ (Human or infrastructure).
US forces or thier proxies will use any shield they can to protect themselves from the locals by taking locals as Human shields (ie women, children, refugees, civillians of various descriptions will surround of rely upon for ‘protection’ US bases).
The US and thier proxy mercs/jihadis have always used Human Shields to prevent thier forceful removal by other proxy forces.
Al Tanf and Idlib are prime examples of the Human Shield model in Syria.
The infrastructure seizing / ‘guarding’ element is also very important. Dams, bridges, power stations, main arterial roads, and of course oil well heads, are prime examples. Forceful attempts at removal will involve the destruction of precious infrastructure (by either the attacking force or the occupying force).
Again this laid bare in Syria.
When this strategy looses effectiveness, such as when a nation decides to simply cut out the cancer that is the US and thier headchopping proxies (regardless of the short term costs), as has happened in Iraq and is beginning in Syria, the US/CIA will throw unlimited dollars around and import / bribe / support protestors to prevent organised resistance or undermine the efforts to remove them.
Remember that such bribes / costs / payments are FREE to the US as they can print as many Dollars as they wish as they own the printing presses and the computers that create digits on a screen called Dollars. Dont ever forget that.
The mass protests in Iraq only began when the Iraqi government began to refuse to take the dollar bribes and instead took active steps to squeeze the US occupation forces (and point Iranian and Russian supplied weapons at key US facilities to gently remind them they had outstayed thier welcome).
The placement of advanced Iranian guided missiles in positions to threaten key US/CIA positions caused the US to invite other players in to take them out, but I digress.
Remember:
Human shields,
Infrastructure seizure / threat,
and financial support of mass protests.
These are the foot hold strategies of the occupation forces.
Of course, logistics are the achiles heal to the US/CIA, and attempts ave been made to starve them out at various times (but that also involves starving civillians shields / hostages too). When the Pakistanis and Afghans organised some years ago to destroy US paid for fuel and water truck convoys (the fuel convoy attacks are well documented), the US crushed the nuts of both nations financially – so the elites would act to call off the dogs and allow the spice to flow (fuel in and opium out).
The only way the US will be made to back off is when the fight is taken to the CONUS itself (or when people stop accepting printed pieces of paper called ‘Dollars’, whichever comes first).
Thank You
This was a great read w/ my morning coffee.
Thanks to “Scott” for providing the translation.
Konstantin Sivkov, words ring so true, and are quite wise in the realm of military and political matter.
The article is a perfect follow up, to the very interesting interview President Assad did with SANA News recently.
Of particular interest was how the Syrian Govt was going to deal with the US presence. In short- ‘”resistance” and ‘they were not going to take on a “super power” as in the US, that would be crazy’.
The Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Sciences has provided much detail and answered many a question I had regarding the coming Fall and 2020.
Vietnam, Beirut, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria – I think I see a pattern.
@Abdul Hussain on November 15, 2019 · at 7:51 pm EST/EDT
The US and thier proxy mercs/jihadis have always used Human Shields to prevent thier forceful removal by other proxy forces.
Al Tanf and Idlib are prime examples of the Human Shield model in Syria.
During the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the U.S. even used children as human shields**. That didn’t prevent the U.S. from losing. People who have been invaded will do drastic things to expel the invaders.
**The accused U.S. officer sort of denied the use of children as human shields, but the reporter concluded “On the other hand, there did seem to be a number of tragic episodes in which members of the U.S. military ventured into hostile territory, surrounded themselves with children by handing out gifts, and then were attacked.”
Excellent, both the news and getting it from such a source. Thank you for posting this. Very high quality journalism indeed.
Then there is the other side of the coin no one here seems to be aware of. Unlike Vietnam, North Korea, Afghanistan the US in Syria has a resource, a retreat and a rest and recreation point just a short flight by helicopter away called Israel.
US troops according to local media have been rotated and special forces reduced or removed all together. This means there is no local community connections, some of the new troops are reservists and national guard on short term deployment who have no ‘professional’ interest in getting it right.
Trump, just like faux Jew Netanyahu, doesn’t matter. If Trump loses the election, they can appoint another dumb brainless idiot like Clinton, Biden etc to do their bidding. These things/people really don’t matter.
The imperative is not to stay in Syria, but rather tie up Russia. Sanctions have failed to do stop the resurgence of the Russian Orthodox church.
The US tried to tie up Russian forces in Ukraine, but failed dismally, as all Ukrainians hate their resident Jews, and have from time immemorial, there is no chance of the locals going along with a war promoted by either a chocolate Jew or a Jewish comedian pretending to be Ukraine’s president.
The idea is to tie down the Russians and attempt to get them to over extend in Syria and adjoining countries. A few dozen body bags is an acceptable cost to the Jews in Israel. And the US media will obfuscate and lie about any serious losses.
Then there is the other side of the coin no one here seems to be aware of. Unlike Vietnam, North Korea, Afghanistan the US in Syria has a resource, a retreat and a rest and recreation point just a short flight by helicopter away called Israel.
Helicopters are extremely vulnerable to MANPADS. Russia makes them; so does China. Maybe even Iran. MANPADS are small and cheap.
Aircraft that can fly above a MANPADS’s operational ceiling (6 km) are either too small or too big. If small, they can’t carry many passengers and therefore are not significant. If big, they become juicy targets for SAMs; I understand that Syria has lots of S-200s.
The U.S. can’t endure the attrition for long.
Humvee mounted GAU-17/A would seem a decent counter to drones until USMC fields the below more:
https://www.c4isrnet.com/2019/05/07/marine-corps-counter-drone-experiment-ends-this-year/
https://www.wired.com/story/iran-drone-marines-energy-weapon-lmadis/