According to the BBC, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak “must stay in office” during a power transition, a US special envoy says.
This statement would not have been made if the US imperial high command had not concluded that Mubarak has the resources it takes to remain in power. This tells me that the USraelians have struck a deal with the police/security/military commanders in Egypt.
If the “Egyptian spring” is really collapsing, it will probably go through two distinct phases: first, the core group at Tahrir square will gradually be expelled and/or repressed, and then the opposition will gradually turn to violent methods not unlike the “Troubles” in Ireland or even the type of widespread terror which followed the January 11, 1992, coup in Algeria against the electoral victory of the FIS which, in turn, will trigger more violence and repression.
In the meantime the US diplomats will express their firm support for the “democratic transition” and their equally firm condemnation of “Islamic terrorism”.
The USraelian Empire just has to be the most hypocritical in the history of mankind.
That’s probably what the US has concluded, but that does not mean they are correct. The crowd at the square isn’t wavering and there is a large network of people supplying them with food, water, medicine and tents.
Also, the government is still making concessions. resignation of a major figure from the NDP would have been unthinkable a month ago. They are small concessions, I grant you. But the fact that they are making them is a sign of trying to placate the crowd. No doubt the government hopes to divide the protesters, but concessions, even minor ones, actually send the message that the government is weakening.
That said, you are correct. The movement has to move this beyond just Tahrir Square. I don’t think they can seize key government buildings as apparently they are defended by troops who WILL shoot to kill. But getting anti-government marches in groups of several hundred or a thousand to take place all over Cairo would change the game. With riot police off the streets, this is now doable.
Also, there was an attempt on the life of the new VP. Pity it did not succeed, but that, along with blowing up a gas pipeline, is a sign that that the government is not in as much control as it thinks.
Also, you never know when random events could change things in your favor. Omar Suleiman is thought to have had 5 heart attacks. Perhaps all this stress would lead to his sixth and final one.
It would shake up the game quite a bit.
In short, its not over yet. And if momentum switches back to the protesters, the US, having clearly and unambiguously thrown its lot behind Mubarak, would be put in a bit of a bind.
One other thing. There was supposed to be a big pro-government counter-demonstration today. Did you hear anything about it? I didn’t.
Further, several Copts have said they intend to hold Sunday Mass at Tahrir tomorrow. If true, it would be a very powerful symbol.
@Lysander:Did you hear anything about it?
Nope, but if it did happen the state TV should have reported it. Do you have access to Egyptian state TV?
several Copts have said they intend to hold Sunday Mass at Tahrir tomorrow. If true, it would be a very powerful symbol.
Depends on who they are, but yes, that is interesting. If you get any confirmation or details, please let me know.
@Lysander: one more thing. If the Wahabi crazies a la al-Qaeda are ‘Copt-killers’ (being “everybody else killers” anyway), I do not believe that the MB is any threat to them. As far as I know, the MB has rejected violence as a method and, again as far as I know, the Copts don’t have an issue with MB. Egypt NOT being a country I know well, I would appreciate if you could let me know if my info is correct.
Saker, if you go to the Al Jazeera live blog and see the 6:05 AM Sunday entry (Cairo time) it is mentioned.
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/05/live-blog-feb-6-egypt-protests
I also read it elsewhere but can’t remember where. So the Mass should be in just a few hours now. My impression is that Copts are very much a part of the uprising.
That said, I have Coptic friends here in the US and I have to admit they are not enthusiastic about the uprising and are not eager to see Mubarak go. They both hate Mubarak and have said so many times over the years, but they are
1) fearful of instability. Not Just Muslim vs Copt but also Muslim Brotherhood vs trade unionists vs liberals vs Wafdists (sort of pro business economic conservatives) and
2) They are not at all eager to confront Israel. Even when I suggested Egypt is almost certain to avoid war with Israel and content itself with opening Rafah and de-legitimizing the “Peace process” they were unconvinced.
That’s all I know. My mom and I are in contact with relatives, several of whom are helping deliver supplies to the Tahrir protesters. They say morale is still very high and the protesters enjoy wide support. But business owners in Tahrir (this is a major downtown shopping area) are starting to get angry as all their businesses are closed.
There is also a concern that the army may prevent resupply, but so far that hasn’t happened.
And they confirmed what we already knew. There are pro Mubarak demonstrators but they are vastly outnumbered by the pro democracy people.
That’s all I know. If I learn more, I’ll certainly post it here.
Game is Over… Tahrir Square has been completely evacuated, closed to protesters and locked down….Obviously the Oligarchy of Egypt doesn’t want any Christian Mass in Tahrir square which will generate more Unity among the People of Egypt locking horns with the Dictatorship…. US warships on the way to Egypt….
Washington is as confused as Cairo…?
Eric S. Margolis
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=/data/opinion/2011/February/opinion_February27.xml§ion=opinion
Total confusion would be a polite way of describing official Washington’s reaction to the revolts and protests now flaring across the Arab world. Neither the US government nor the mainstream media knows how to respond.
President Barack Obama has just suffered the second humiliation in a row from the Mideast. First, he demanded Israel cease building illegal settlements on Arab land. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by the US Congress, laughed in Obama’s face and kept on building.
Now, after demanding Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak resign “now,” the Egyptian strongman scorned the demand and grimly hugs on to power, backed by the security organs and business oligarchy.
Obama has again been openly scorned by another Mideast leader.
This writer reported last April that the US had selected Egypt’s then intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman, to replace President Mubarak. Washington’s hope was for an orderly transition, but the popular intifada derailed that plan.
While unsure which way to move for the time being, Washington is hoping that General and now Vice President Suleiman will assume full leadership of Egypt with the backing of the ministers of defence and interior, and senior army generals. While the US clearly wants this outcome, most Egyptians just as clearly do not.
Now that the initial shock over Egypt’s uprising has subsided, powerful special interests here in the United States are preparing to throw their support behind VP Suleiman or even continuation of President Mubarak’s rule.
The Israel lobby, the most powerful in Washington, is trumpeting exaggerated fears, fanned by neoconservatives and Israel that Egypt is about to turn into a second Iran. Behind these wild claims is the real concern that the US-brokered phony “peace” engineered by the US between Egypt and Israel will be rejected by Egyptians, who regard it as treason and betrayal of the Palestinian cause.
The military-industrial complex, which sells Egypt $1.5 billion worth of arms each year – money that comes from US aid – worry that a popular, democratic Egyptian government will divert military spending into urgent social needs. America’s powerful farm lobby frets that tens of millions of US wheat sales to Egypt, again paid for by US aid, may be jeopardised.
Finally, the imperial-minded national security complex in Washington and New York is very worried that its most important Mideast ally may be on the way out. If Egypt’s current US-backed and financed regime goes, America’s entire security architecture for the Mideast will be in peril. Also throw Pakistan into the equation as most Pakistanis are watching events in Egypt with avid interest and envy.
Overlooked so far in the reporting over the crisis in Egypt is the fact that no matter how much Egyptians would like to loosen pervasive American influence over their nation, Egypt remains dependant on the US for food, as do many other Arab nations.
For the past 40 years, US foreign aid programmes have provided at least half or more of Egypt’s grain imports. Egypt’s limited fertile land cannot feed its growing population of 84 million. So Egypt must import grain to provide its people subsidised bread. The US supplied Egypt, the world’s leading grain importer, with some 3 million tons last year.
It seems that the attempt to lock down Tahrir square by the Army did not work…and thousands are pouring in and Mass will be celebrated after all…
Anon, I agree Egypt’s economic condition makes it very vulnerable to US pressure and even a totally independent government would not be able to confront the US the way Iran does.
But the US does not give Egypt wheat. Egypt buys its wheat. Because of US aid, Egypt tends to buy its wheat from the US. Without aid, Egypt could buy wheat from the best offer.
Foreign aid makes up less than 1% of GDP and most of it is military. The economic aid Egypt has to spend in the US.
So Egypt could easily survive a cut toff of US aid, but Iran style sanctions would crush it.
The Economist had a very good series of articles about Egypts economy in its July 15, 2010 issue. Here is a link to one of them.
http://www.economist.com/node/16564172?story_id=16564172