Note by the Saker: I have to admit that I still am rather puzzled by the Turkish “invasion” of Syria. There are several hypotheses about what the Turks are really up to and what their real goal is. Since my friends Alexander Mercouris and Mark Sleboda seem to have a much better understanding of what is happening than I, I submit to your attention their analysis rather than to exposes you to my confused guesses.
The Saker
——-
Erdogan Calls Putin as Russia Seethes at Turkey’s Syrian Incursion
by Alexander Mercouris for The Duran
In the immediate aftermath of the Turkish capture of Jarablus in Syria Turkish President Erdogan telephoned his “friend Putin” on Friday 27th August 2016.
The Kremlin’s account of the conversation is remarkable even by its standards for its terseness
“The two leaders discussed the development of Russia-Turkey trade and political and economic cooperation in keeping with the agreements reached in St Petersburg on August 9. Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan exchanged opinions on developments in Syria and pointed out the importance of joint efforts in fighting terrorism. They agreed to continue their dialogue on the issues of the bilateral and international agenda.”
The true subject of the discussion will in fact have been the Turkish capture of Jarablus in northern Syria.
Whilst it seems the Turks did inform the Russians of this move in advance, it is clear that the Russians are to put it mildly unhappy about it. Though the Turks appear to have tried to arrange talks with the Russian military leadership presumably to discuss this move – even announcing a visit to Turkey by General Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff – no such talks are taking place, with the Russians denying that a visit to Ankara by their Chief of General Staff was ever agreed, and the Turks now saying that the visit has been postponed.
The Russian media meanwhile is carrying articles making clear the extent of Russian anger. An article in the Russian newspaper Kommersant, which is clearly based on official briefings, is accusing Turkey of “going further than promised in Syria”. That this article reflects official thinking in Moscow is shown by the fact that the semi-official English language Russian news-site “Russia Beyond the Headlines” has republished it in English.
The article makes it clear that Turkey did not coordinate the Jarablus operation with Moscow or Damascus, and that it was much bigger than Moscow was led to expect. The Russians are also clearly annoyed by the extent to which the operation has been coordinated by Turkey with the US, which is providing air support.
“For Moscow, Ankara’s operation was an unpleasant surprise, demonstrating that the expectations for a convergence of the countries’ positions on Syria that emerged after the meeting between Putin and Erdogan were premature. In deciding about the operation in Jarabulus, the Turkish leader has sent a signal that relations with the U.S. remain a priority for him, and he prefers to act in the framework of the antiterrorist coalition led not by Moscow, but Washington.”
(Bold italics added)
I have repeatedly warned against over-high expectations that the recent rapprochement between Turkey and Russia amounted to any sort of realignment. I have also said that despite Turkish annoyance with the US over the recent coup attempt, Turkey remains a US ally, continues to be committed to regime change in Syria, and is not going to throw the US out of Incirlik or allow Russia to use the base. My only surprise is that judging from this comment it appears there were some people in Moscow who thought otherwise.
The Kommersant article then continues ominously
“According to Kommersant’s information, in case of aggravation of the situation, the Russian military and diplomats are ready to employ bilateral channels of communication with their Turkish counterparts, as well as express their concerns to the U.S. if necessary. According to Vladimir Sotnikov, director of the Moscow-based Russia-East-West centre, Ankara’s actions could seriously affect the process of normalisation of bilateral cooperation that was agreed by presidents Putin and Erdogan in St. Petersburg”.
(Bold italics added)
That suggests that behind the mild public language strong complaints have been made in private by Moscow to Ankara. Erdogan’s call to Putin looks like an attempt to assuage Russian anger, to reassure Moscow about Turkey’s intentions in Syria, and to keep the “process of normalisation” between Turkey and Russia on track. The terse Kremlin summary of the conversation suggests that Putin in response made Russian feelings and concerns perfectly clear, and that there was, in the diplomatic language of the past, “a full and frank exchange of views” ie. a row.
Why are the Russians so angry about the Jarablus operation?
Here I acknowledge my heavy debt to the geopolitical analyst Mark Sleboda who over the course of a detailed and very helpful discussion has corrected certain errors I have previously made about the Jarablus operation and has greatly enlarged my understanding of it.
In my two previous articles discussing the Jarablus operation I said that it looked to be targeted principally at the Kurds, whose militia, the YPG, has over the last year significantly expanded the area in north east Syria under its control. I also discounted the possibility that the Turkish seizure of Jarablus was intended to affect the course of the battle for Aleppo by providing supplies to the Jihadi fighters trying to break the siege there. In my latest article I said the following
“….. it is not obvious that the rebels actually need a “safe zone” in this area. They already have a corridor to send men and supplies to Aleppo through Idlib province, which they already control. Why add to the problems of setting up a “safe zone” much further away in north east Syria when the rebels already control territories so much closer to Aleppo?”
Mark Sleboda has explained to me that the principal corridor to supply the rebels in Syria has always been through the area of north east Syria around Jarablus. In his words
“Idlib is not an acceptable supply route from Turkey to forces in Aleppo province because the Turkish-Syrian border in Idlib is mountainous terrain – small and bad roads and then long routes all the way through Idlib past SAA held territory into Aleppo province. The Jarablus Corridor north of Aleppo is and has always been absolutely vital for the insurgency,. That’s why Turkey, Brookings, etc have always placed so much priority on a no fly zone there. Now its come to realisation.”
In other words the Turkish capture of Jarablus before it could be captured by the YPG was not primarily intended to prevent the linking together of two areas within Syria under Kurdish control – though that may have been a secondary factor – but was primarily intended to secure the main supply route (or “ratline”) Turkey uses to supply the Jihadi fighters attacking Aleppo.
Beyond that it is now clear that Turkish ambitions go much further than Jarablus. Various Turkish officials have over the last two days been speaking to the Turkish media of Turkey establishing a large rebel controlled “safe zone” in this area of Syria. Moreover – as Mark Sleboda says – they have now secured US support for it, as shown by the very active role the US air force is taking in supporting the Turkish move on Jarablus.
As Mark Sleboda has also pointed out to me, creating this rebel “safe zone” within Syria has been a declared Turkish objective for over a year. The Turks have up to now been prevented from realising it because of US reluctance to provide the necessary support, and because of concern in Washington and Ankara about a possible Russian military reaction. With the move to Jarablus and beyond now carried out with US support and through Russian acquiescence obtained by stealth, the Turks have now achieved it.
What implications does this have for the war in Syria and for the continuation of the Russian – Turkish rapprochement?
Going back to the war in Syria, my own view remains that this will not in the end decide the outcome of the battle of Aleppo, where reports suggest that the Syrian army is continuing to gain ground despite the uninterrupted – and in fact increasing – flow of supplies to the Jihadi fighters across the Turkish border. My longer term view also remains that if the Syrian government succeeds in recapturing the whole of Aleppo and eventually Idlib, then it will have won the war. However what this episode shows is that the war is far from won, and that the Turks and their US backers are still prepared to go on escalating it in order to prevent the Syrian army winning it.
Beyond that I think the British reporter Patrick Cockburn may turn out to be right, that by trying to establish a “safe zone” within Syria Turkey is overplaying its hand and is taking a step that
“….would embroil Turkey in the lethal swamp lands of the Syrian-Iraqi war.”
Already there are indications that the Turkish move is provoking a local reaction from the YPG and the Kurds. Despite earlier reports that the YPG was withdrawing all its forces back across to the eastern bank of the Euphrates, there are now credible reports of scattered resistance to the Turkish move by Kurdish militia aligned with the YPG, and there are also reports of mobilisation against the Turkish move in the Kurdish areas of Syria.
In my recent article I made the following point about the potential ability of the YPG to wreck any scheme to set up a rebel “safe zone” in this part of Syria
“North east Syria is a bitterly contested area in which the dominant force is not the rebels but the YPG. It does not look like a credible “safe zone” for the rebels or a credible launch area from which to launch attacks on Aleppo. On the contrary an attempt to create a rebel “safe zone” in this area would antagonise the YPG, and would restore the alliance between the Syrian government and the YPG to full working order, leading to constant fighting in the area of the so-called “safe zone” between the Syrian rebels and the YPG. That would surely defeat the whole purpose of the “safe zone”, rendering it unsafe and effectively worthless as a “safe zone”. Of course the Turkish military could try to garrison the area to defend whatever “safe zone” it created inside it. That would however require an incursion into Syria that went far deeper than the one to Jarablus, and which would risk the Turkish army becoming bogged down in a lengthy guerrilla war on Syrian territory with the YPG. I doubt Erdogan, the Turkish military or the US would want that.”
In his article discussing the Turkish incursion Patrick Cockburn makes essentially the same point
“Turkey may be able to prevent the Kurds permanently extending their rule west of the Euphrates, but it would be a very different and more dangerous operation to attack the de facto Syrian Kurdish state, which has spread itself between the Euphrates and the Tigris rivers since the Syrian Army largely withdrew from the region in 2012.”
Setting up a rebel “safe zone” inside Syria in the teeth of the opposition of the YPG is however what Erdogan and the Turks – backed by the US – have now decided to do.
In recent days there has been some renewed talk of Russia becoming bogged down in the war in Syria. In my opinion the country that runs by far the greatest risk of getting bogged down in Syria is not Russia but Turkey, which already has to deal with an Islamist terrorist campaign and a Kurdish insurgency on its own territory – both in large part consequences of the war in Syria – and which cannot afford to add a war between the Turkish army and the potentially Russian backed YPG in Syria to its mounting problems. That however is what Turkey by its latest move now risks.
There remains the outstanding puzzle of US policy. The US actively encouraged the YPG to capture the town of Manbij – which lies west of the Euphrates – from ISIS, and provided heavy air support for the YPG operation to the capture Manbij. It is now demanding that the YPG withdraw from Manbij and from all areas west of the Euphrates, and is providing air support for a Turkish military operation that is at least in part targeted against the YPG.
It is impossible to see any logic in these moves. As I said in my previous article
“It is impossible to see any coherent strategy here. Rather it looks as if CIA and military officials on the ground in Syria have been going their own way, encouraging the YPG to expand as fast as it can, heedless of the larger consequences. The political leadership in Washington, when it finally woke up to what was happening, then had to take disproportionate steps to bring the situation back under control.”
Regardless of this, the Turkish move into Syria should bury once and for all any idea that Turkey is in the process of undertaking a geopolitical realignment away from the West and towards the Eurasian powers. Not only is Turkey still a US and NATO ally, but it is now conducting an illegal military operation against Russian opposition in Syria with US military support. That is not the action of a country in the process of carrying out a realignment and preparing to switch alliances from the West to Beijing and Moscow.
The Russians and the Turks are now talking to each other, which for several months they had stopped doing. The Kremlin’s summary of Friday’s conversation between Putin and Erdogan shows that they are still talking about improving their trade links and economic ties. However, as the Kommersant article shows, even that limited progress now appears to be in jeopardy as the two countries’ conflicting stances in the Syrian war once again threaten to pull them apart.
In other words Turkey remains, as it has always been, an ally not of Russia and the Eurasian powers, but of the US and the West, and its actions in Syria are a clear demonstration of that.
Erdogan wants his cake, a return to economic niceties with Russia, and to eat it too, the over throw of the Syrian nation. Erdogan is a slippery treacherous entity, playing both the Empire and Resistance Block for whatever he can get as the self absorbed megalomaniac gangster he is. While his words say one thing, “Assad can stay temporarily”, his actions speak louder. His invasion of sovereign Syrian territory under pretext has set up the American led NATO, Israel, GCC, CIA mercenary terrorists long sought “safe-no fly zone”. This is the “tell” that Erdogan believes the Empire will succeed in this war and Erdogan means to be on the winning side and reap the spoils he most likely has been promised, territory that will most likely include Aleppo. Look for more “safe zones” to pop up within Syria next to her borders with Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon with embedded U.S. special op troops within ISIS-Nusra- the FSA or whatever they are calling themselves this week, with the USAF providing an air defense canopy flying above. The Kurds are minor but useful players to the Empire in the grand scheme. This is the moment that the Resistance Block either puts up or eventually goes home as a question of whether the military situation is untenable or not. Trying to put lipstick on this pig will not change the reality of this war. It appears the most likely outcome is another Libyan failed state scenario, barring a massive military intervention to push back, and according to the playbook, the exportation of “Islamic jihad” to Central Asia and to Kurdish desires in Iran. You can bet the first ground work is already being laid for the next phase of operations. IMHO.
Turkey is a rabid dog flinging its tattered army at the USA puppets in Syria
Russia needs to stand with Syria, advise Turkey to remove it’s forces from Syrian territory within 24 hrs, as the base has been targeted for destruction. Then send in it’s missiles to complete the job.
If the Yanks are stupid enough to stay there, tough titties, they are there ILLEGALY as INVADERS and supporting TERRORISTS that are killing Syrian people, thus deserve everything they get.
The time for diplomacy is over, actions speak louder than words, and IMHO Russia does need to come to the for in this department.
At this point, its seems rather obvious that Erdogan is an independent actor, and an unreliable ally to either side.
Erdogan is going to play to what he sees as his own personal advantage, which may be quite different from the question of what’s good for Turkey.
I suspect a perfect world from Erdogan’s point of view is that both the Russians and the US are mad at him, but not enough to completely ‘break’. That means Erdogan has played both sides for all he can get, but not for too much.
And generally, I don’t believe a word coming from him or that government. Not about who’s setting off bombs. Not about who Turkey is attacking. Not about who Turkey is making money from under the table. Not about refugees. Not about whether I believe Turkey when they say the sun will rise in the east, at least not without getting up early and looking for myself to confirm it.
I agree with Anonymous (August 30, 2016, 6:59 pm UTC). Turkey said it would enter Syria to fight “terrorists” and it is known that Turkey has long treated Kurdish militants as “terrorists”.
Slebota has a very Communist/Cold War mentality, this limits how he sees the world, which tends to be as the US being behind every single evil thing and having some magical control over everybody (sort of the opposite of Hillary who sees Putin’s hand behind every evil). Reductionist theories are always, in the end, absurd.
It’s quite true that the US has a lot of vectors of power but Turkey is not some poor slump, much as Russia isn’t (and presumably he would agree Putin does not do everything on command from the “evil US”). It seems rather clear that Turkey is going after Kurds and the US is unhappy with this. Every Empire has from time to time to negotiate with its “vassals”, particularly strategic and powerful ones (like Turkey).
It may well be true that one of the reasons Turkey has a red line at the Euphrates is that Turkey wans to prevent Kurds from severing the anti-Assad supply lines. This does not mean that Turkey is inherently pro-ISIS or other jihadists, it could very well mean that, like the US, Turkey is willing to stomach Wahhabists until they overthrow Assad, at which point, Turkey will “get serious” about fighting the terrorists next door.
Again, there is just too much disinformation and hidden information to come to any definitive conclusion about what is happening, and anyone who claims they know is selling snake oil.
Turkey done goofed
This is what Sheikh Imran Hosein has said all along:
1. that the Turks and Erdogan are the Trojan Horse for Russia, they are trying to play Russia while being the good US-NATO ally…..they never could be trusted in the past, are not trustworthy now and can never be trusted in the future until they collapse as a nation state.
Because the entire existence of the Ottoman Empire and the current nation state of Turkey is based on racism and supremacist tendencies…..such a state is evil by its very foundation and will always ally itself with like minded states (Israel, US, etc.)…….and this is coming from the analysis of a Sunni Muslim Sheikh (including myself as Sunni Muslim).
2. that the Turkish incursions and “bogging down” in Syria will start the fire that ignites a Turkish civil war following the already weakening of the armed forces due to the Erdogan crack down after the failed coup d’état.
It is easy to miscalculate, analyse wrongly and expect good from people and hope for the best, especially when everything is so depressing and complex, and the number of actors and interests are increased dramatically.
…..However, there are historical facts, foundations and bases that cannot and must never be overlooked when conducting your analysis.
Good analysis but still not right IMO. There are too much unknown facts and too many wheels within wheels. I have only 1 thing to add. Since this piece is based in mostly official data and diplomatic cables what to make with this – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-29/us-slams-turkish-bombing-american-coalition-partners-unacceptable-and-source-deep-co
Also from all the analysis I’ve read I picked up a trend. Everyone is writing about the US or the Russian agenda and when comes to the Turkish agenda everyone is discussing it in the light of the US/Russian agenda. What if Turkey has a separate agenda, completely decoupled from US or Russian master plan?
Oo, I just wrote the same, before I read your comment.
R
It is my belief that the U.S. has to protest these actions as they just gave a threat to shoot down any intervening aircraft (Syrian-Russian) at Al Hasakah where the Kurds, with embedded American special op troops, were attacking the Syrian Arab Army garrison there which asked and got some limited air defense. The pretext was in protecting the embedded U.S. troops. Now that the Turks are bombing the Kurds these U.S. personnel are no doubt withdrawn but the protest still has to be made to keep everyone on side.
The USAF has a long history of bombing American ground troops.
I guess its ok when we do it, just file it under ‘friendly fire’. But its not ok when the Ruskies do it.
Very Good!
So now Turkey will fight the kurds in Syria and in Turkey at once?
I must say I am baffled by how fast USA can throw their allies under the buss, now we will see how dogish the kurds are, will they defend their people or back away like ordered.
I’m not amazed by how fast the US can throw allies under the bus. The old American Indian chiefs tried to tell everyone that the Great Chief in Washington speaks with a forked tongue. Not much has changed since.
What does amaze me is that groups continue to want to ally with the US. Especially the Kurds. You’d think they’d learn. They are probably still paying chiropractors to work out the damage from the last time the bus’ wheels crushed their spine.
I suppose the money and fancy gear is attractive, even if you know that you are almost certain to end up under the bus.
Didn’t Turkish incursion clobber the YPG? I thought the YPG was the new US ally in the region now…?
What the hegemon does and says publicly are often two different things with the latter lagging the former by 24 hours or more. This way, the only people who know whats really going on are the ones who are there. This is the kind of subterfuge that is the stuff of US “diplomacy” for decades: say one thing, do another, and then silence the whistleblowers or, conspiracy theorists. They have done this for so long that historical views are so devoid of reality that we’re totally uninformed, contributing to our insanity as a people. But we cannot admit our embarrassment that we have no clue about what’s really going on. We study and study this situation, thinking that by digesting as many reports as we can from a broad spectrum of sources that we’ll begin to see the picture, but the truth is, we really don’t know enough to make a comment that holds up. I’m not criticizing my fellow commenters here, I am venting my frustration at being lied to every step of the way while the blood flows and the lives of the people are totally wrecked. This is the kind of insane behavior which if not checked and reversed will destroy us as a sentient species.
Turkey planned the operation in Siria long time ago, probably two years ago. It was prevented by Russian intervention and not fully supported by USA at the time. Turkey employed multiple steps to achieve it, including shooting the Russian plane, quarrel with USA, unleashing the “migrants” on EU, the suspiciously quickly supressed coup, and the false pro-russian dance. Turkey recently neutralized Russia (appeased, duped – chose the word), secured the US on its side and carried on the plan. As I mentioned in another comment, it is a Bizantine politics. Восток – дело тонкое, as you Russians say.
I was amazed by the enthusiastic analyses, comments etc. by the Russian politicians, media and peoples’ comments in Russian social networks, as well as comments and analyses on this site. May be this is to some degree a result of the view of the world as by-polar – you are with Russia or you are with USA (Putin talked about building a multipolar world, didn’t he?). Turkey is not pro-Russian or pro-American, Turkey is pro – Turkish and will use anything to achieve its goals. The same principle should be taken into consideration and applied to Iran, China, India, and any other country. The world is becoming really multipolar now, and I am not sure in a positive way.
I hope, Russians will find a way to deal with the situation, but it is more convoluted than it looks.
R
Very well articulated. Allow me to speculate further. The unipolar as we know is increasingly multipolarising. In the end the whole political process which was devised after Potsdam will halt and the actor with the biggest stick (or more precisely the actors with the biggest sticks) will define the new rules of the game. Lets hope noon use the ‘big stick’ (further speculation – the US knows its armaments are joke and maybe this is why it’s harboring this poison derivatives and do everything possible to keep the whole economy system one crisis away from dissolving. the problem is that this ‘weapon’ can turn into a trigger of this multipolarising).
Г
Yes, seems Turkey fucked both Russia and USA over. USA is right now crying that Turkey is attacking SDF
“US slams Turkey over ‘unacceptable clashes’ with Syria opposition, says they aid ISIS
https://www.rt.com/news/357550-usa-turkey-clashes-syria/
Turkey restored the ties it wanted with Russia, meaning the turk stream and other economic ties, it then used it improve relationship with Russia to pressure USA into supportng their attack on Syria, and now the Turks are attacking USA puppets SDF and when USA/EU complains, Turkey tells EU to shut up or it will unleash the refugees
basically, yeah. multipolarity in action pretty much. Erdo just jumped the train but not the RC one but one of his own. the more interesting thing in the whole multipolar situation unfolding in ME now for me is Iran-Turkey, Turkey-Iran (and the multitude of reported/denied motions/contacts) but not in the Pepe’s dreamy ATM vision.
lets wait and see (i am sure there is a nice Russian saying in that spirit)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkeys-new-relationship-russia-assad/
Observations/ comment by Eric Zuesse: Turkey’s New Relationship with Russia — and Assad
US double crosses everyone and neither trusts or can be trusted by any other state. Russia on the other hand tries very hard to be an honest broker, sticking to agreements and international law.
Erdogan has just made a very big mistake. Trying to finesse Putin is not a good idea.
The Muslim billions are anticipating the day when Russia captures Constantinople, to await the arrival of the Mahdi.
Turkey has millions of Kurds in its’ territory and on it’s borders, were Russia to provide covert support, then Erdogan has a real problem.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
We dont have the whole picture yet and Moscow and Iran is still keeping mum about it so we shouldn´t jump to hasty conclusion like the always pessimistic and emotional Sleboda.
Bhadrakumar f.ex have a different take:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/author/bhadrakumaranrediffmailcom/
I was kind of hoping for your take Saker and i do hope you write one eventually.
In my opinion Mercouris is being too influenced by Sleboda here. Yesterday Moon of Alabama published Mark Sleboda’s whole take on this situation and it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny at all.
In truth I think it’s not worth trying to second-guess how it will go. Erdogan seems to be overplaying his hand and the Russians seem to be annoyed. But how real this is and what happens next both remain to be seen.
Erdogan can’t achieve much in that part of Syria – it can easily be turned into his Vietnam or Afghanistan if he over-reaches too far. Meanwhile the real work of liberating the country continues uninterrupted.
I like an analysis Eljah J. Magnier made the other day. I don’t always accord with his view, but this one presented a great overview of all the Syrian complexities: Aleppo prepares for a major battle and the Kurds in Syria are attracting everybody’s animosity.
One quote:
I appreciate your comment and Magnier link. It all reminds me of The Dance of a Thousand Veils. Seduction, betrayal, hidden daggers, the whole lot of what seems to be overwhelmingly prevalent in the Middle East.
Layer upon layer of deception, illusion and evil, in more places than not.
The only things I am sure of is that the area is a vital strategic crossroads, the Empire is financially, morally and spiritually bankrupt, and that any and all of their assets in the Middle East will be sacrificed in a heart beat in an attempt to deceive and destroy Russia and stop Eurasian integration. People of good will everywhere, especially the few Americans that get it, need to weigh in against such insanity.
The dance is getting more than absurd and I hope all the veils get incinerated with minimum loss of life, and that the producer of all of these blasted veils is finally revealed, stark naked. Erdogan is just one of the most prominent dancers, IMHO, trying to keep the dance going by any means possible.
I hope the assessment I read in this thread that he is too late to stop SAA from liberating Aleppo proves to be correct. That would get the choreographer and principal dancers frenetic beyond belief.
I concur on your take about both “experts”. They are always down at the bottom of my list of analysts. Sleboda especially is always wrong, at least for 2.5 years.
Your take on Erdogan is realistic. He had to act against the formation of Kurdistan. How he continues is a great dilemma. His military cannot afford to take a lot casualties. They will if they linger.
His perpetual enemy are the Kurds, inside and outside Turkey. He needs Iran’s help and he needs Russia not to assist or use the Kurds. He hopes the US will not help the Kurds, though their master plan is to form Kurdistan.
Turkey has to settle with Assad and get help with ISIS. He cannot handle them alone. They are another external and internal threat to Turkey.
Erdogan is playing his best hand. It is limited. Now he needs help in depth. Only one nation can provide that—Russia. And the price he will pay just went up.
Hello Larchmonter,
I always respect your views. Would you kindly share the top of your list of analysts you respect (aside from The Saker, of course)?
Rostislav Ishchenko 5 stars
Andrew Korybko 5 stars
Pepe Escobar 4.5 stars
These three deliver on topic after topic, always have their facts straight, and don’t make Herculean projections into the future. Though Pepe sometimes indicates the West is collapsing. I find that it is devolving, decaying, but collapse is too imminent a term for what is happening.
They break down events and circumstance, positive or negative, local, regional or geopolitical, diplomatic or military.
There are others, but off-hand, these are my stars.
Nikolai Starikov For analysis only, 4 stars.
He is a very astute analyst, but he is driven now to be political, active as a candidate for something. But he is very good at analysis in spite of his ideology.
Saker 4 stars most of the time. 5 Stars when he really gets away from some of his ideological loves. (I can be more critical of him because we have a friendship and that gives us leeway to punch one another. I expect a return punch shortly.) He has produced gems.
Buy his book and read all his work. I have. Some amazing material there.
Thanks so much, Larchmonter
Where does Ishchenko usually get published (in English trans.)? I can’t find his latest articles.
He is translated irregularly. Sputnik; here, in the past; Fort Rus; it’s infrequent.
I’ve seen some of his work on Politikus, but I use Yandex so it translates.
I really can’t find a consistent source for him. Maybe he doesn’t publish regularly.
When he does, he’s terrific.
Thank you!
Nice analysis, thanks for posting.
A fact that I see seldom cited regards the political experiment of Rojava, on which a lot of disinformation was spent in the last years. My impression is that this experiment, although small, is considered dangerous and everybody wants to boycott it. I wonder if it was decided that it’s time to stop it by weapons…In fact the US support to YPG (please correct me if I am wrong) is rather recent, at the beginning US supported the Iraqi kurds, not the Syrian ones.
Erdogan reminds me of that Sinatra song – “riding high in April, shot down in May, back on top in June”.
Erdogan thinks he is the kingpin now. Biden rushes to his side promising no Kurdish state, and provided air cover for his invasion of Syria while throwing the Kurds under the bus. The EU has to heed him because of the 2 million refugees he can loose on them. And Russia as a junior partner (apparently he has forgotten he approached the RF, cap in hand).
He is playing with fire.
Seems like the Amerikanski aren’t happy with Turkeys move and have ordered, commanded, asked Turkey to stop hitting the YPG. As they say online……. Hmmm
Personally, I can’t find a single reason why should Moscow seathe about it. Things go very well according Putin-Erdogan’s schedule. 1.Turks invaded 2. Daraa surrended (+next enclaves ask for same terms) 3. Turks are moving further = FSA is flowing away from Aleppo city front to Manbidj … to final position of Aleppo city fully secured for Assad and Turks (in position of Russia ally) controlling Kurdish lands (=potential US protectorate similar to Kosovo). Moscow is naturally nervous to be so visibly part of illlegal invasion. It explains why official Kremlin controlled media harshly condemn the invasion. If you have no clue why should Erdogan suddenly be such a trustworthy partner for Russia, I have to remind he month ago survived nasty betrayal and assasination attempt from US minions. It’s something very different from mere “dirty politics” and “money in first place”. It’s personal, he now Hates USA. And he knows “enemy of my enemy is my friend” very well.
Sgt. Steiner instructs Turkey how to behave, like good germans.
2 weeks ago he was lecturing Iran for misbehaving.
(IraqiNews.com) Baghdad – German Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned the Turkish government from attacking the Kurds in Syria. The warning came after the attack launched by the Turkish troops on the Kurdish areas, north of Syria
http://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/germany-warns-turkey-attacking-kurds-syria/
It seems was too early and maybe to eager from Putin to try to normalise relations with Turkey. Erdogan is showing here more of a poker player than Putin (or any other western “leader” for that matter) He knows he has Wester Europeans by the “cojones” with the threat of unleasing refugees if something does not suit him. Also, he knows the US does now almost whatever since they could not push him out with the coup attempt. As somebody expressed in another comment Erdogan follows only his and Turkeys interest, but one has to remind only what matters for theTurks not the Kurds, so there he has got a problem no question! Does he care? Probably not.
Remember, Putin didn’t really ‘give’ Erdogan very much. A concession on allowing tourist flights, but that can always be reversed. Or if the Russian government helps to decrease the popularity of the notion of a vacation in Turkey, those tourist flights will be mostly empty. A statement on restarting SouthStream. But, it was only an announcement that the project was being restarted. Easily cancelled. Putin gave Erdogan a little bit of general publicity, and of course someone in Russian intelligence and maybe Putin himself gave Erdogan a warning call on the night of the F-16’s.
Meanwhile, Putin tested Erdogan. Putin may have wanted to know if Erdogan could be trusted to really build plans with and around. So, Putin offered him a few trinkets. And then got to see just how little Erdogan valued Russian friendship. And now, Putin has his answer and knows not to trust Erdogan the next time he wants to pull something. In the long run, that will cost Erdogan a lot more than what he’s gaining right now. Which may be entry to a quagmire in Northern Syria (P. Cockburn has a habit of being right).
Putin seems to play a long game compared to the typical, deal-of-the-week, western politicians. In the long game, he’s gained valuable info on who he can and can not trust, and paid little or nothing to get it.
Putin offered Erdogan few trinkets? You call a gaz pipeline and a nuclear plant trinkets?
R
Actually, a promise of a gas pipeline sometime in the future, and a promise of a nuclear power plant sometime in the future. Promises are cheap, and either project can be cancelled, delayed or suspended at will. Basically adds up to nothing in terms of the present.
Wrong. Gazprom already is laying the pipes and the work on the plant at Akuyo started.
Sometimes I have the unpleasant feeling that Putin is hostage to Gazprom, Rosatom, ec.
“Better Understanding”? from Mercouris and Sleboda?
This is typical all or nothing bemoaning that the Kremlin critics and Putin critics always profess.
Syria is the most complex war in modern history. It makes the Balkans in the 90’s look like the 2008 “war” in Georgia.
Syria has so many nation-states, financiers, weapons suppliers, ideologies, religions and geo-political rivals that a Play Book is mandatory, but it has to be published daily.
Why wouldn’t Turkey do what it just did? Invade, project its power in an operation that has been on the books for a year or more? Everyone knew it was coming.
And if you knew, as the Russian Intel and military knew, of course, and it had been discussed at the top level before it started, then the US air support was approved by Russia. Had to be to get through the Russian S400 control of the skies. And so, the article in Kommersant is typical analyst talk and the RBTH stuff explains that the obvious is the obvious.
Turkey is acting solely in its interests. It must control the Kurds. It had to do what it did. And only the US would help. And the US double-crossed the very group of Kurds who bled and died for Manjib while the Kurds then saw the US withdraw its ISIS proxies from the vengeance of Turkey’s incursion.
That is the key here. The Kurds have no real ally in the US. That leaves a huge opening for Russia to use them when they want. And Turkey knows that, also.
Did anyone think Turkey would just get in line with Russia? It’s a long way from NATO to SCO.
Meanwhile, economics dictates their immediate relationship. Tourism by charter flights is going forward. Commodities trade is going forward. Gas pipeline is going forward.
The key is whether the Russian military assists the rebuilding of Turkey’s military and whether the Russian Intel agencies rebuild the Turkish Intel capabilities.
Turkey staying in NATO is no big thing unless NATO decides to go to war in Syria to “protect” Turkey. Who does Turkey need protection from? How much support will that war have in the next five months in the capitals of the EU nations? The Russian missile defense will have to be destroyed for NATO to support Turkey. What are the consequences? Nuclear war. So, Turkey gains nothing from being with NATO. And Turkey’s great strength for NATO was its Air Force, now problematic because it was the seat of the coup.
Turkey is using NATO and the US while it is weakened so it does not depend solely on Russia for protection. That realization of Turkey’s strategic weakness is often overlooked because of its internal weakness caused by Kurds, and now ISIS, and the refugees encamped inside and near or passing through Turkey.
Turkey is not double-crossing anyone. It is acting with whatever means it can to protect itself.
Putin understands it.
Announcing that the Russian General is not going to Turkey is just commonsense. The combat operation confused the moment. Everyone had to step back. Russia has done the same several times during its combat operations. It modifies its tactics and weapons use. It works diplomacy when many people think the military is doing just fine. It uses humanitarian efforts (at cost of its soldiers) when the opportunity or need is imperative. All these adjustments are realities that have to be faced.
Russia is in Syria to hold the nation together. It is probably the most difficult military task in the last 80 years. And it is slowly winning.
Turkey aside, what is the state of the war?
Can the US and Turkey continue to work their plan to both establish Kurdistan and stop Kurdistan, respectively? Dwell on that one for a moment.
Can the US continue to embed in Al Sham (the newly branded Al Nusra) and not suffer deaths of its special ops? Russia has given notice that anyone fighting Assad is a target. So, the day is coming shortly, and that will change the US actions.
The price of oil is rising. Russia will be able to do more.
China is stepping a toe, a military toe, into the war. They will bring more material and base inside Syria and probably off-shore.
The capacity for the final year (2017) of war will be all on the side of Russia-Syria and the Syrian coalition.
Turkey will be evaluating itself. If it thinks it can once again trust the US, it is like the snake handler who thinks just one more bite won’t be fatal. The snake kills everyone in the end. Erdogan is not about to be a lackey or allow Turkey to be a vassal. That is a certainty. He is no Poroschenko.
Wolfowitz’s mapmakers in the US are busy drooling over Turkey’s move. They believe the US suddenly pulled off a great tactical move, screwing the Kurds and saving the ISIS fighters from Turkey’s tank fire.
The really big deal is the re-arming of Al Sham and the prolongation of misery and combat in Aleppo. The US has formally and openly chosen the worst terror group as ally.
Russia will decide this in the end. What we are seeing in Syria is what we saw in Cambodia. The US created a monster death machine and then blamed the Vietnamese for invading and saving the Cambodians from the collapse of humanity.
The shape of the battle zone Russia is working has not changed. Eventually, the border will be an issue. And Turkey will find itself face to face with adjustments it must accept.
Turkey and Erdogan have nothing large to gain by working on the US side. He can see and smell the war. And if he resists Russia’s goals, a new gateway could be opened on the Turks for Kurds/ISIS to flow in and bog down his entire nation in a terror war he could only imagine in a nightmare.
His future is in doubt. He can’t trust his Air Force. He can’t trust his navy. He can’t trust the US. He really can’t trust the EU and he certainly cannot trust NATO.
Describing his situation as a break away from Russia, Eurasia, SCO is ludicrous.
He needs what Russia has. Iran, China, SCO, the capacity to control the war in Syria and win it.
And all the economics with Russia. Erdogan understood who called him and offered support during the coup. It was Eurasia.
Actually, when he called the US for help for the incursion, air cover, it forced the US to double cross the Kurds. Give Erdogan points for such a clever move.
Turkey cannot simply flip over to Russia. It is still infested with takfiris that can do a lot of damage within Turkey, and possibly Russia. The US would have no qualms about unleashing them on Turkley if it did flip. Much better for them to be shipped into Syria where they can be dealt with.
Perfect Larch…
Sanjay
I think Obama’s support of the Kurds and his tacit support of the Turkish coup caused this massive tantrum. Turkey went into Syria a few years ago. I think they are only there to tear apart the kurds and thwart Obama’s romance with them. Of course once the Turkish army is in Syria, deals can be made with the west that will also hurt Assad and the Russians.
Yes, but consolidation remains key. Wherever the US treads, bases and airstrips pop up like toadstools. In comes a few thousand “Advisors and Trainers” …. Well, we all know the score, it cannot be covered over by propaganda anymore. Whatever the response to this, it must be firm and decisive.
I was personally very surprised that Russia fell for this trickery: Especially after Mr Shimatsu’s splendid analysis of the reason behind the coup.
http://www.4thmedia.org/2016/07/turkey-coup-arrests-bury-the-soros-clinton-migrant-crisis/
The problem with what is going on in Syria is that everyone is complaining ,yet supporting each other tacitly or otherwise.
Remember that the US NATO GCC line has always been that President Assad must go ,that in essence hasn’t changed hence the deliberate destruction of Syria continues.
The Russian line has been to protect Syria’s sovereignty and territory with the caveat that the Syrian people will (must) decide who their leader will be.
Turkey on the other hand claims that the potential of a Kurdish State is a threat to Turkey.
During the recent Russian /Turkish deliberations in early August one of the main points of contention was the sealing off of the Turkish Syrian border. Now when anyone thinks about the ramifications that this would entail the other outstanding arguments become rather mute. Its rather simple ,cut off the logistical lines of support and the Wahabi invasion is doomed . As far as US air support goes in this latest Turkish incursion ,it would seem that the US is supporting Erdogan in order to patch up lost credibility .Losing Turkey would be a major geopolitical disaster for them .The US has been using the same (broken record ) argument that they constantly use against Russia but now with Turkey also. Bomb IS but don’t touch our (moderates) . What they (US) means by ‘moderates’ is their moderate arab states ie Saudi Arabia .
There has been some complaining from Russia and a statement of discontent from Damascus ,yet very little from Iran and Hezbollah although that may change in the coming week. I do believe that both Russia and Syria were given a ‘heads up ‘ about this Turkish excursion and I believe that it is about sealing the border . The complaining might just be an exercise in guile .If per chance that it is a form of double crossing then sparks are going to fly from all the complainers including the US
Not only are they supplying the rebels in syria to fight both assad and isis but also supplying isis to fight the rebels and assad, now that turkey has entered the mix these companies can now supply the kurds and turks to fight each other. Business must be Booming for these american weapon companies
I am afraid that the whole thing is a big plot conceived by the US.
Already two years ago, Turkey was planning this invasion, then to test Russia’s reaction, they shoot one plane. Then Relationship between Russia and Turkey went sore until Erdogan came to meet Putin early August.
Then we had this failed coup against Erdogan. I feel this coup was conceived between the US and Erdogan with three objectives:
1) make believe Russia that Erdogan was taking his distance with the US and was ready for more cooperation with Russsia including defense.
2) give Erdogan the opportunity to get rid of his internal opposition ( the price for him to go along that plan)
3) Syria invasion to prolong the war and chaos and making almost impossible for Assad to achieve peace.
Actually, this invasion is for Russia Erdogan’s second stab in the back and as Russia does not want a war with Turkey and NATO, Erdogan has been able to do it with impunity and after his visit to St.Petersburg he is doing a mockery of his apologies to Russia
Can’t see a ‘plot’ where Erdo agrees to have Turkish parliament hit by air strikes.
Or one which would could have seen Gulenite consolidation rather than Erdo.
He’s too wily to trust US.
He does not want a ‘Kurdistan’ stretching all the way along the South-East border of Turkey.
Can’t see Rus too enthused about a ‘Transdineister-on-steroids’ – which is what a contiguous Rojova would amount to, a zone of perpetual instability and black-market profiteering, especially of oil – either.
Nor does Assad want this.
So it is possible some agreement has been hammered between the three to prevent its realization.
@ Jean de Peyrelongue
You are the first commenter I came across that mentioned the “stab in the back” incident about which Mr. Putin bitterly complained, yet forgiven and forgotten a few months later by dint of a mere sorry.
There is so much bile written about Mr. Erdogan who, after all, is doing his job in the interests of his country and himself, and fooling the savvy Kremlin statesmen as gullible idiots.
Has anyone in Moscow heard of Catherine the Great? She knew how to deal with the sultans.
The Syrian situation resembles a comedy of errors. Pity the people there are paying for a tragedy instead.
Erdogan was a sleaze before and then shot down the Russian SU-24, depending on Turkey’s status with NATO to not get bombed back to the stone age by Russia in retaliation. Then the US, a NATO partner instituted a coup that failed ( big surprise) and now Erdy has it in for them, so he warms up to Russia to pee off NATO, but still remains a member state. So then he turns around and spits in Russia’s face again. He’s playing a dangerous two sides of the fence game that is only slated to end poorly. As soon as NATO kicks Turkey out of NATO Ankara had better learn how to speak Russian. No one will be crying to see it happen either.
NEVER trust the turks! I will say it here until my face is blue. And because of recent history, the same goes for Americans. I hope and pray russians aren’t foolish!
“Regardless of this, the Turkish move into Syria should bury once and for all any idea that Turkey is in the process of undertaking a geopolitical realignment away from the West”
Shakes head. This just doesn’t make sense.
Turkey moving into Syria to block the Kurdish/Israel 2.0 state bolsters the geopolitical re-alignment narrative quite nicely- Syria, Turkey and Iran have no interest in being broken to bits for Israel’s much desired 2.0, masquerading as a homeland for the kurds, the US has been behind that expansion for Israel’s and NATO’s benefit..
“The US actively encouraged the YPG to capture the town of Manbij – which lies west of the Euphrates – from ISIS, and provided heavy air support for the YPG operation to the capture Manbij. It is now demanding that the YPG withdraw from Manbij ”
Yes, the US did encourage YPG, pretending to be SDF, to ethnically cleanse the Arab town of Manbij- ***while promising/reassuring/guaranteeing Turkey that the Kurds would move out of Manbij**** after ISIS was removed
Curiously the Kurds let ISIS simply leave Manbij… they just had to ‘lay down their arms’
And the US didn’t keep their promise- Surprise!- Not
Turkey, of course, has it’s own interests here- nothing to do with Russia or the US.
How many people knew Turkey was building a massive border wall with Syria?
Its like one of the best kept secrets around- I had to have been the only gal reporting about it, ever, anywhere?
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/08/turkeys-border-wall-with-syria.html
Erdogan this and Erdogan that doesn’t even scratch the surface of all that’s going on and gone on.
Is it possible that the apology from Erdogan to Putin for the downing of the Russian aircraft was a ruse to begin with?
After all, it would be quite a bright move to make Russia lower her guard by Erdogan and the US Knesset planning a sloppy fake coup to take place after Erdogan’s apology, letting some info slip to the Russians and Iranians so they could then warn Erdogan about a coup which he knew was coming to get in the good graces of the Russians and Iranians just so he and the US Knesset could get Jarablus without any defensive from the Russians, the Iranians, and the Syrians.
I would immediately have called it quits with NATO and ordered the US out of Incirlik. I have Always wondered why Erdogan did not break ties immediately.
Erdo building a wall already.
TEHRAN (FNA)- Battlefield sources in the Kurdish-dominated town of Kobani North of Syria said that the Turkish military forces have penetrated 20 meters into the Syrian border city from Turkey.
Sources have said that the purpose of this incursion by Turkey is apparently making its forces able to build a wall along the Syria-Turkey border, Al Masdar reported.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950608001392
Turkey is building the wall, not Erdogan, and the wall has been being built for more then a year.
As I’ve mentioned above-
Russia as usual too naive and not tough enough with Turkey in setting immediate conditions for rapprochement.
I think Sh. Hosein will eventually be proven right: Turkey is a kind of trojan horse. Erdogan, after all, is a megalomaniac, and the US-CIA know know how to deal with such a psychology. They absolutely cannot afford to lose Turkey as an indispensable element of NATO. They will promise Erdogan the sun and the moon if that is what it takes. NATO rightly believe that so long as Russia is not directly attacked or threatened that it tends to be somewhat soft and very prudent in its reactions. They will try to force Russia to accept a fait accomplit that is very much against its interests. So it’s a question of gradually worming their way into the situation in order to obtain what they want: a wedge that will split and eventually fragment Syria. This is essential, absolutely essential to Israel’s long term ambition of Eretz Israel. Re-read Oded Yinon.
Hillary Clinton’s Uncanny Fulfillment of Israel’s Yinon Plan for a Middle East Riven with Conflict
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hillary-clintons-uncanny-fulfillment-of-israels-yinon-plan-for-a-middle-east-riven-with-conflict/5541918?print=1
“Greater Israel”: The Zionist Plan for the Middle East
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/5324815?print=1
Are the Clintons Israeli Agents?
http://www.unz.com/article/are-the-clintons-israeli-agents/
Exactly !!! ……it is really not too difficult to figure this out.
You need to look at the big picture and the final prize.
When people get bogged down in the complexities and details they tend to lose sight of the big picture.
People still don’t get it…
The US and Israel ABSOLUTELY CANNOT allow the Syrian military nor Hibzallah in Lebanon to remain intact and capable of doing significant damage to Israel in an IRAN war.
Therefore they ABSOLUTELY WILL continue to escalate in Syria until their goals are achieved.
Russia needs to understand this. Putin HAS NO “partners” in the West. He needs to escalate NOW before Hillary Clinton becomes President and extends Turkey’s “safe zone” into a “no fly” zone which will bring Russia in direct confrontation with the US and risk World War III.
If he wants to avoid further confrontation with the US, he needs to massively increase support to the Syrian Arab Army and turn the Kurds from the US to Russia’s side. He needs to turn on the S-300, S-400, S-500, BUK and Pantsir air defenses and inform the US that Syria now has a “no-fly zone” applying to the US and Turkey and Israel. He needs to send another 10,000 Special Forces to Syria and get Iran to do the same. He needs to intensify the long-range bombardment of ISIS and AlQaeda without regard to US complaints about targeting “US allies”.
In short, he needs to WIN NOW before the US can escalate the situation beyond his control. And if this entails military confrontation with Turkey (in Syria alone), then so be it.
@” and inform the US that Syria now has a “no-fly zone” applying to the US and Turkey and Israel. ”
This sure makes sense to me.
This also seems to be the bewst move Syria can make in its own behalf.
Legal move. As last September, inviting the Russians in to prosecute the war.
No one else is there legally.
Katherine
Richard, me an many others totally understand your sentiments and some would agree with you…….I would have probably agreed with you a few months ago.
However, what you are asking for would most likely start WWIII by default in a very short period (time frame) from now..
I truly believe that President Putin actually is planning for WWIII to be one of the future scenarios and is basically buying time to prepare Russia to increase its chances of survival.
Escalating in Syria only makes sense when you are dealing with rational actors who are also thinking of survival and not thinking in terms of perpetual war, indispensability and indestructibility.
Harry – WW3 may be coming – It may not be – but one thing I am certain of is a nuclear war will not happen just because Mr Assad and his allies kick out some western backed terrorists.
We should not let fear of things that won’t happen deter us from doing what is right and necessary and urgent
best wishes
Richard – Yes – the best comment and most prescient.
We can blather away among ourselves but the Syrian people ae being crushed as we write.
This decisive proposal is first and foremost not at all aggressive to the US hence they can save face and take a back seat. They would most certainly not start a nuclear war over it – nor even need we fear a conventional war between the US and Russia over Syria.
Remember the west’s official position is that they are actually supposed to be opposed to isis.
So with the biggest fear dealt with, ie the unnecessary fear that there will be a nuclear war if Syria and it’s allies are able to free the country from a western backed terrorist invasion and, given the formidable military capabilities of Iran and Russia
one is simply left wondering – Why don’t the multipolar forces just get on with it?
Just do it.
Although I am not a military analyst, I did not find your original post or this one very persuasive. The idea that Lebanon/Hezbollah pose a credible threat to Israel beyond the annoyance level does not seem plausible to me. Israel is a nuclear armed state and the IDF are considered to be world class. In view of this fact, I find it very unlikely that Hezbollah would attempt a large scale attack on Israel for any reason (excepting resistance or retaliation to a large scale military action from the IDF). Moreover, as far as I know Hezbollah/Lebanon have no credible air defense to counter the IAF. Israel could do incalculably more damage to Hezbollah and Lebanon than the reverse.
In any case, even if your scenario was correct, Russia would be taking an enormous risk in such an operation. Directly challenging the US in Syria would itself be risky enough for Russia even discounting any other threats such as Turkey. Moreover, Israel has access to the best tech in the world, both what has been developed in Israel as well as whatever they choose to take from the US. They definitely should not be underestimated. Russia’s air defenses may not be beyond counter by the US or Israel.
In my opinion Putin has every reason to be cautious.
Both Iran and Lebanon/Hezbollah what they want is to live in peace and in the case of the latest be allowed to reconstruct their country still not recovered from the destruction caused by Israel in the 2006 invasion. That yes, people will fight again, but most probably this time will be the whole Lebanon united, as I was told by a Maronite liberal from Bekaa valley, who told us that his daughters, in their twenties and studying at university, have told them that they will take arms in case Israel would invade again. For how he said this, it seemed that the girls were totally determined to do it and he will not be able to stop them.
The problem in both, Iran and Lebanon, are those from the 5th column whose greed makes them to be looking for a master to whom sell their country for money, as they did some in the former USSR.
Israel only need to respect the legitimate boundaries of existing states/countries/peoples and most probably will achieve to live also in peace. The problem is when you have an important part of your GDP depending on security/military industrial complex, as happens with the US…Then what is needed is diversify economy to another fields of development or direct these technologies to be applied to health, environment, where is much more needed.
Precisely I was reading a news linked by other commenter about the lowest level of water in history in Galilee Sea. What better to do than to direct efforts to solve issues like these, obviously not thinking on solving them by thieving others water by annexing territories, as happened with Golan Heights.
Look at the audience in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blrPJMg-sD0
What people, expecially young people, wants is to live in peace.
@ Fatima Thanks for the link. I also believe that neither Hezbollah nor Iran have an interest in attacking Israel. By the way, do you know Elsi on the blog? She actually visited Lebanon this year.
@Jonathan,
Yes I know her very well, having been a reader from time ago, but, morover, I would say that she and I we are kinda “twin souls”….In fact, I felt impelled to start commenting since I saw she and other leftist good commenters have left, in order to give more balance to the comments section when I started seeing too much far right statements here. It was a moment when several commenters were publishing whitewashing posts on Adolf Hitler and calling for the vote for people like Golden Dawn, Front Nationale and the likes.
The hubris of the IDF came undone in the Lebanon before.
Using nukes is out of the question – Israel would reap the whirlwind. They are surely not that stupid.
And you left Iran – a newly-invigorated S-300 armed Iran – out of the equation.
No, the Israeli ‘leadership’ want a ‘caliphate’ buffer whose takfiri rabble they can control. Same with the Saudis.
But they face increasing internal anxiety and opposition to this policy in Israel itself.
This is where they are weakest.
Not to mention a growing realization in the US electorate that their military are being used for agendas that have nothing to do with the average Americans interest – quite the reverse.
unless that kind of action would give an impetus for the enraged usa public to vote in Killary, maybe he is waiting to see if Trump might succeed?
part of that is the turkish quest – the struggle about “what ist turkey” will intensify, with the purpose of osman restauration and greater control in a growing umma.
so the answer to anyone else is also definded by that outcome that is yet to see.
this is while the affiliation to the west requires a more kemalist path.
the turks want their version, the saudis want two different other versions (upper and lower classes).
the danger to europe is the honeymoon between a) usa supports questionable islamic rebels that are extremely fickle and volatile, plus want to force europe to accept any number of islamic migrants, perhaps with the added purpose to appease turkey, and b) turkey supports islamists for the sake of “their” umma, including islamists in europe.
c) saudis playing good cop bad cop with doing massive oligarchic business in europe, but at the same time the disgruntled cousins of the oligarchs are funding jihadis, that are fully anti-western and anti-saud family.
since arab spring, a reformatting of muslim societies on global scale is inevitable. everyone and his uncle try either to slow down this process, or catch control of it. this might be the deepest explanation beyond the obvious physical facts in syria.
This article from Hispan TV brings in the opinion of the Syrian government on the so called “Euphrates shield” military operation perpetrated by the Turkish government in Syrian territory calling it a “theater play” and has elevated its complainings to the UN Security Council and UN Secretary General Secretary Ban Ki Moon:
“Syrian government condemns ‘play’ of Turkey in Jarabulus”
http://www.hispantv.com/noticias/siria/286381/siria-operacion-turquia-yarabulus-disparo-daesh
“The play that staged Turkey during its intervention to Jarabulus was held without a shot against Daesh (Arabic acronym for the terrorist group EIIL) in the confrontations by taking this city”, said the Syrian Foreign Ministry in a statement.
Then reiterates that this case evidences “the cooperation between the Turkish regime and the terrorist organization”, in addition to the Al-Nusra Front and its allies.
“What is reported by the Turkish regime on the output of Daesh from Jarabulus actually is replacing Daesh by other terrorist organizations affiliated to Turkey,” he pointed out.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry said that the air force and the Turkish artillery, in coordination with terrorist groups, indiscriminately bombed the villages of Yeb Kusa and Amarineh, located in the south of the city of Jarabulus, which left dozens of innocent civilians killed or wounded.(…)
(…) In two letters addressed to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the Secretary General of the Organization of the United Nations (UN), Ban Ki-moon, has indicated that violations and massacres committed by Ankara in Syria constitute an aggression and a crime against humanity.
“Syria strongly condemns the crimes, violations, assaults and massacres committed by the Turkish regime in Ankara, against the Syrian people and against the unity and sovereignty of Syria for more than five years ago”
What Syria’s Kurds “Think” They are Fighting For Versus Reality
http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/29/what-syria-s-kurds-think-they-are-fighting-for-versus-reality/
Will a Kurdish State be Born Under the “Guise of Fighting ISIL?”
http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/28/will-a-kurdish-state-be-born-under-the-guise-of-fighting-isil/
So, Tony Cartalluci finally became ‘aware’ of the creation of Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0
Wow! Years after the I was stating the obvious at my blog!
When it can no longer be obfuscated by manipulative phraseology!
I wonder when zero hedge and moon of alabama will finally discuss the long planned, the long worked on, the birth pangs of the new middle east- Wow, that’s will be such an eye opener for their sycophantic fan bases. Maybe then more people will ‘get it’??
I guess better late then not ever, but, who knows maybe not ever??
Israel, as well as the US, surely love how well it’s been obfuscated, really, it’s sure swell for Israel/US that no one but a few little tiny bloggers, myself included, have talked and talked and talked about the creation of Israel 2.0 aka Kurdistan for years including calling the destabilization, destruction of Turkey, nearly 2 years ago…
Even Sibel Edmonds.. still hasn’t mentioned the Kurdistan/Israel 2.0 plan that I’ve noticed, wonder why? It’s been pretty darn obvious for a while..
The trolls have stopped attacking the persons who mention this now, guess, it can’t be hidden anymore. even though there is still a whole lot of less the clever muddying of the waters around the issue- please stay focused on Turkey as ‘bad’ and don’t notice Israel..
And suddenly it’s getting obvious the kurdish militias aren’t very nice.. gee, ya think?
“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled”
Hero worship- It just gets in the way of doing your own thinking
Either Syria is worth maintaining as a sovereign state or it is not. Either Daesh-al-Nusra is worth annihilating before they spread to Eurasia, or it is not. If the answer is Yes, both things are worth it and they are also perceived as mutually dependent, then Russia has to confront NATO – the Anglo Zionists – now or never. As for Turkey, Russia has to demand a clear and unambiguous declaration of its intentions, with its essential national interests being preserved. It has to do the same with Iran and insist that it commit fully. And likewise with Hezbollah. As for China, it probably will help only in a more moderate and indirect way, but it would save the day if it could be convince to commit from its virtually innumerably large infantry. Once it realizes that the Russia-Iran-China coalition is dead serious, NATO will have no choice but to back down. It only can fight defenseless people. It is incapable of winning against a coalition of two superpowers.
If the answer is No, we cannot risk a war over Syria or Daesh-al-Nusra, Russia should pack up and leave, because that is what the outcome will be eventually unless its answer is Yes. Russia cannot win this alone. If the US-NATO gets its foot firmly in the door, it will escalate and drive on to fragment the country. It will fall to “greater Israel,” and the Takfiris will go on to spread into Russia’s underbelly and into Uyghur territory in earnest.
Checkmate in Syria, may after all will come to nothing!
Putin may be intelligent, surely unquestionable, but Erdogan is smarter!
The only way to defeat the gangster sultan Erdogan, is to asphyxiate him, by chopping off his wings (the USA) it is doable, as demonstrated in the past, and prior to the current scenario.
The only way, and means the West could defeat, both the slumberous Russia, China, Iran and others (the Great East) caught in their sloom, is by deception, ultimate cunning, collective staged acts and syncronised incidents and false flags, craftily tailored to convince and delay.
The coup attempt must have been thought out carefully, and Erdogan played it beautifully, and Russia expectingly came to rescue and drop her guards.
How could you fight an enemy, showing guilt and remorse, asking for forgiveness, pretending to be genuinely repenting friend! Erdogan the man who “grieves with the shepherd, then dines with the wolves”.
There are so many threads, possibilities and options of interpretation as to warrant the application of mathematical vector analysis, to account for them all, and to make (at least theoretical) sense of them.
Without any coherent reason for it, I suspect the presence of a plot known only to two or three masterminds, evil to the core – in the style of the play and novel “House of Cards” (the UK original, not the Hollywood copy).
I say this because:
1) While all the explanations are played-out against then other, the tragedy of the murdered, horribly wounded and barely surviving civilians and children continues.
2) Every new bullet or bomb increases the wealth of a son-of-a-bitch in the US-EU, who couldn’t give a f… about anyone else, at home or anywhere. In neo-liberal philosophy people are merchandise disposable for profit. And neoliberal philosophy perfectly dovetails with the plan for the American Century, which (and in this I think Sheik Imran correct) is but a verbal mask for the Zionist century.
3) In fact it would seem that, so far and by far, the winners are the Zionists, who are one with the Jewish state. Thay haven’t lost one man, they control the US power hubs of life, politics and culture more than (I think), even Hitler controlled Germany. They can act with impunity anywhere and have agents everywhere. I just discovered Zionists even in European anti-Nato national groups, however weak and ineffective these groups are.
4) The path to the destruction of European identity and to miscegenation (of the inferior classes) is under full sway – the Coudeneuve Kalergy plan proceeds like clockwork.
5) The Zionists are working full steam and full power to install the Clintons in the WH – the most corrupt, vendible, debased and debauched presidential family in at least 100 years. And I am afraid they’ll succeed.
By the way, those who may still have doubts about Zionist power in America and mode of operation, may read the blog “Death of an Unsung Hero” http://wp.me/p2e0kb-1YK , and see what happens to a US Congressman who dares to remember the currently completely vilified concept of basic honesty. And also follow the links to the last interviews of the Congressman in question.
Following your link I come to an interesting article from Your Daily Shakespeare on Burkini’s, The Bridge of Boobs in Venice and the deployment of such to stem the rising tide there of sodomy some centuries ago. I did not find the story of the hero congressman.
Sorry. The correct link to “Death of an Unsung Hero” is http://wp.me/p2e0kb-1Yt
Thanks for the link. Appreciated it.
While dabbling in the details (justifiably) the bigger picture looms. The stage is being engineered by the masters of deception to foment conflict with tribes and nations to their eventual downfall for the world to downsize their strengths and energies, while the whole time the nucleus of the Zionist entity clasp their hands to the fulfillment of their grand delusion. As Sheikh Imran infers the world will need to be downgraded for Israel to achieve her status and ultimate objective in establishing world dominion from the golden throne in Jerusalem. They are at the end of everyone’s priority list while they are at the forefront of everyone else’s demise and instability. While all are seeking the depths of their resources and capacity, they are increasing theirs. They have managed to cover their nefarious agenda with so many veils we just cannot sift through them to trouble their ever growing illusory might. Truly a great mastermind is at work with an egregious nature. The false messiah isn’t simply a metaphor which isn’t literally applicable. However, the Sheikh describes the final outcome as a grand wisdom that is yet to unravel.
Commendations to the truth seekers and truth analysts (many here) who do see beyond the veils implanted. To understand and side with the good fight is what we must do. May we have the courage and strength to enact our knowledge to action. May the Most High grant us the light and the valor to tread the hazardous noble path, which the prophets and messengers endured most of all (peace be upon them all).
For those interested in an Islamic Eschatological understanding of events I would recommend, ‘Jerusalem in the Quran’ by Sheikh Imran Hosein.
“Note by the Saker: I have to admit that I still am rather puzzled by the Turkish “invasion” of Syria. There are several hypotheses about what the Turks are really up to and what their real goal is.”
Yeah, a lot of very conflicting speculations, I’m in the same sort of quandry as what to make of it.
A recent thought.
Before the Turkish incursion the Kurds with US backing were sitting up Rojava as an independent state and there seemed nothing Russia/Iran/Syria could do to prevent this from happening.
Now US owned Rojava is blocked, NATO Turkey is fighting as a state and with proxies against NATO US proxies and the US do not have control of the situation. Also fighters have been diverted from Aleppo.
Makes me wonder who led who into a trap.
Andrew Korybko presents a similar perspective to this. I think his article that I read recently was on Katehon, though maybe I am not recalling that correctly.
I am puzzled too, but one thing I do know is that Putin and Lavrov have NOT been fooled by Erdogan over anything. His offer of Incirlik airbase is not needed, so is worthless. His ongoing support of ISIS is obvious – taking Jarablus in one day, with the loss of only 2 Syrian rebels ??
Turkey is pivotal to NATO, and if Syria falls, the new Syrian regime will link NATO to Israel by land, and make Lebanon the next troublesome piece to fall.
The Bosphorus is also pivotal to the Russian Black Sea fleet’s access to the Mediterranean, so there are good reasons for Putin to play along with Erdogan’s little games. But trust him? – no.
I have to disagree with Mercouris’ article. I think Russia is fine with what is currently happening and the angered response from the US DoD is showing that they are not at all pleased that Turkey is attacking their Kurdish tools (YPG and SDF). Also the US is now saying they would not provide air cover to Turkish troops if they attacked the SDF. I think Russia and Turkey have some sort of agreement as to how far they are allowed to advance. Also Mercouris bases his allegations on Kommersant, however, official statements by both the Kremlin and Teheran have been rather conciliatory and did not condemn Turkey’s move.
All three countries have a common interest in preserving the unity of Syria at all costs and I think this is what we’re seeing here play out. Also I think stating from Putin’s comments last December after the Turks shot down the Russian jet, Russia was until then willing to accept a limited incursion into Syria. This was of course jeopardized by this incident. Putin stated on the 3rd of December 2015.
“We were ready to cooperate with Turkey on all the most sensitive issues it had; we were willing to go further, where its allies refused to go. Allah only knows, I suppose, why they did it.”
This to me underlines that discussions about the Turkish ‘Safe-zone’ had been far advanced already and were stopped short after the fighterjet incident. The recent raproachment between both, however, has made Turkey’s move possible again.
At this stage further developments are hard to predict. Erdogan is not to be trusted of course and we will have to see just how far south his FSA proxies will dare to go. But if the coup attempt was really CIA backed, as I believe it was. Then Erdogan may really have tilted much more towards Russia than many here still believe. I recommend Elijah J M’s Blog in this regard. He has been an ardent observer of the Syrian war from the very beginning and often proven to be right!
One thing to keep in mind is that within an autocratic government of an empire, there are often seperate and competing power centers. Each has its own agenda and its own goal and its own backers. And what’s good for the overall nation/empire doesn’t really get considered. Was Germany really any stronger with Goering and the Luftwaffe having a land army? Not really. But the fight between the power centers meant he got one when he wanted one.
In the US, the Pentagon is clearly a seperate and competing power center from the CIA. The State Dept beauracracy is famously been long entrenched at Foggy Bottom. Goldman Sachs and the Defense Industries want to make money.
So, you know where the Pentagon is backing because the news leaks out about Special Forces being there. About ‘boots on the ground’. What you don’t see reported as clearly is ‘spy loafers’ on the ground.
But, it is very, very, very possible that Erdogan could be pleasing one set of US power centers by fighting to keep the supply lines open to the ‘terrorists/rebels’ in Allepo, but still dis-please the Pentagon as the Kurdish troops that their Special Boots on the Ground are supporting are attacked.
No one ever said the CIA and the Pentagon on are the same side.
Elijah J. Magnier’s latest article.
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/putin-and-erdogan-have-agreed-on-a-restricted-road-map-in-syria-the-kurds-and-nusra-will-be-the-main-losers/
Putin and Erdogan have agreed on a restricted road map in Syria: the Kurds and Nusra will be the main losers
The Cabal cheated Russia again
I wonder when Putin will loose temper
Hi Saker,
I am like you I don’t see where this is going.
I can understand the logic of Turkey intervening against the Kurds first and foremost
But they don’t answer the question of how far will Turkey go?
Turkey would need to go up against Iran, and Russia and the silent partner of China.
Will Turkey start attacking the SAA like the stupid Kurds did with their proxies,
They then become legitimate targets for the SAA and allies
Russia apart from allowing travel and holidays. – have not agreed anything on trade with Turkey since the sanctions. They agreed to work on things – so Erdogan has still a lot to loose.
Friendship/ trade with iran is important
As is with China – though they will play all sides. China like to win / win
Or are they just going to occupy part of Syria?
They haven’t closed the border – those jihadis will get picked off by the Kurds which should please SAA and their allies
I also don’t get the sense the the USA are in on this, they are waiting to see how it goes.
More questions than answers in their analysis – Alexander though is balanced – but Sleboda which I read is very emotional, bombastic but he is American ;-/. And they are very much zero sum – all or nothing – they don’t really do nuanced analysis. Every issue needs to be hammered.
Syria is not going to cause WW3.
A little quiestion (OK, two questions):
1) The Turkish invasion of Jarabulus makes incorrect the Meyssan analysis of urkey as a sponsor of a puppet-Kurdistan in Syria where to move the “Turkish” Kurd?
2) Can we close the hypotesis that the failed coup against Erdogan could bring an “realigment” of Turkey? The invasion of Jarabulus shows that Turkey is behaving in it’s “Old style”…
My guess is that Erdo wants to drive as many Kurds as possible off Turkish territory, and into Syria.
Then they become Assad’s problem, not Erdo’s.
The wall and resettlement of Turks (from Ukraine even!) is consistent with this.
So the question of a ‘Kurdistan’ essentially becomes redundant as far as he is concerned.
Of course, a ‘Kurdistan’ as envisaged currently – ‘Rojova’ – would still be a security threat, unless it’s leaders are bribed and supported militarily to suppress internal armed Kurdish opposition likely to arise from such an arrangement.
The YPD are at a cross-roads: they either support the Syrian state, accepting they are but one group in its composition, or they continue the path to becoming another ‘Israel.’
The latter is the road to ethnofacism and perpetual conflict.
They totally blew their popular support with the declaration in March of a federated autonomous region. It was decided by only 150 delegates, not by any popular referendum.
It looks to me that more Syrian Kurds are seeing the corruption of the Barzani-run Iraqi ‘Kurdistan’ and the continuing haemmorhaging of Iraqi Kurds escaping poverty and instability into Europe.
That is likely part of the ‘jumping the gun’ declaration: an attempt to create an impression of unity where there is little to none.
Again, the best way out of the impasse is to avoid these ethnocentric and divisive ploys by committing to Syria fully, and to Assad in particular – they must know by now that much of the ‘evil’ attributed to him is black propaganda.
One in five people in Turkey are Kurds.The Kurds have had a history of receiving punishment and discrimination , oppression from the Government of Turkey. Turkey is now in its expansive role ,it wants more territory ,death to the outside Kurds and suppression of the Kurds within its borders.Whats wrong with an independent Kurdish State next to Turkey- nothing. Turkey will push where the opposition is weak and that applies to all points of the compass.Dont forget Cyprus.
” Whats wrong with an independent Kurdish State next to Turkey- nothing. ”
Eh? Excuse me but “next to Turkey” are other peoples’ countries.
Ok lets give them Florida or Ontario if were just giving other countries away.
US-NATO-Turkey Invasion of Northern Syria: CIA “Failed” Turkey Coup Lays Groundwork for Broader Middle East War? …By Prof Michel Chossudovsky
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-turkey-invasion-of-northern-syria-cia-failed-turkey-coup-lays-groundwork-for-broader-middle-east-war/5542921
“Public opinion was led to believe that relations with the US had not only deteriorated, but that Erdogan had vowed to restore “an axis of friendship” with Moscow, including “cooperation in the defence sector”. This was a hoax.”
“The likely scenario is that from mid July to mid-August US, NATO and Turkish officials were actively involved in planning the next stage of the war on Syria: an (illegal) invasion led by Turkish ground-forces, backed by the US and NATO.”
“Do the SAA Syrian forces have the military capabilities of confronting Turkish ground forces without Russian and Iranian support? How will Tehran react to the influx of Turkish forces? Will it come to the rescue of its Syrian ally?
An “incident” could be used as a pretext to justify a broader NATO-led war. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty (NATO’s founding document) states under the doctrine of “collective security” that an attack against one member state of the Atlantic Alliance (e.g. Turkey) is an attack against all members states of the Atlantic Alliance.
Dangerous crossroads. With the incursion of Turkish ground forces, military confrontation with Syria’s allies, namely Iran and Russia, is a distinct possibility which could lead to a process of escalation beyond Syria’s borders.”
“From Washington’s perspective, this ground invasion sets the stage for a possible annexation of part of Northern Syria by Turkey. It also opens the door for the deployment of US-NATO ground force operations directed against central and southern Syria.”
“Washington will no doubt eventually clash with Ankara with regard to Turkey’s project of territorial expansion in Northern Syria. Washington’s longstanding objective is to create a Kurdish State in Northern Syria, within the framework of a territorial breakup of both Syria and Iraq. (see US National War Academy map below). In a bitter irony, this “New Middle East” project also consists in annexing part of Turkey to the proposed Kurdish State. In other words, Turkey’s New Ottoman objective of territorial expansion encroaches upon Washington’s design to fragment Iraq, Syria, Iran as well as Turkey. In other words, America’s ultimate imperial design is to weaken Turkey as a regional power.”
The article makes a great deal of sense. And certainly fits into the US’s MO with double dealing. I suspect that might be the true story,though we won’t know for a while. It somewhat matches some other’s thinking. And would certainly explain Alexander Mercouris’s article on Putin and Russia being upset with Erdogan’s actions in invading Syria.
Erdo seems to have played out the Russians. But so long as Erdo does not move for regime-change in Syria but stay put after achieving his objective of preventing a link-up Kurdish state straddling its south, the situation may stabilise. But this is long shot if not a fat hope. Erdo is likely to harbour irredentist ambitions for restoring Ottoman lands in Syria, including Aleppo. and all areas west of the Euphrates and right down to the city of Damascus. Erdo’s capture and offering Jarabulus as safe haven to anti-Assad jihadists is a very bad sign. Putin also suffered a setback and humiliation in Iran when he was denied the continued use of an Iranian air-base after only 2 weeks or so. But with the Turkish incursion into Syria unopposed , Putin risked being stuck in a quagmire in Syria – a war of attrition now that the US has the polar bear where she wanted it to be in the first place – out from its lair in the north and on a limb in the unfamiliar south. I think it is likely that Putin will strengthen the YPG to oppose Erdo and quickly help Assad to capture Aleppo before Erdo consolidate his position in Jarabulus. This way Putin can use the YPG to fight a guerilla war against Erdo in Jarabulus, deny Aleppo to Erdo and hold the line against him there and free him to continue to bomb IS.
Kurds are not much diferrent from turks, they were together, not oppressed, but together with turks for centuries and this was ended by Ataturk. Kurds will not let anyone use them, they will use others, USA, Russia etc. instead.
R
Re US support for the Jarabalus operation: a number of US analysts believe it complicates its Raqqa objectives, so it’s difficult to see how it is beneficial to them:
http://aranews.net/2016/08/turkish-intervention-syria-may-complicate-raqqa-operation-analysts/
How would the capture of Jarabulus benefit the US? Answer: 1) It will help anchor Turkey into the NATO alliance despite the failed coup; 2) It will calm Turkey’s anxieties about an autonomous Kurdish state at its southern flanks – something the US wants to deliver but can’t until the Turkish invasion; 3) the successful Turkish invasion with the seeming suspected acquiescence of Putin will drive a wedge of distrust between Putin and his budding alliance with the Kurds; 4) It will make it more expensive and difficult for Putin to sustain its allies in Syria, including Assad; 5) It will make it easier to drag Putin into a Afghanistan-like quagmire in Syria that is likely fatal to the already weakened Russian economy. The list of negatives goes on and is long. Putin should now settle for a new equilibrium: quickly capture Aleppo, use Assad to hold the line against Turkey, strengthen the YPG and bomb IS while negotiating for a cease-fire. This way Putin can also threaten to bog down Turkey and the US in the same quagmire in Syria. And with the new equilibrium, Putin should concentrate on the most important strategic task of all: strengthening the Russian economy. The Russian economy is still the key. If it collapse, Russia is likely to collapse with it. One factor is weighing in its favour: the US economy is also near collapse. So its a war of attrition from now!
Not sure about this.
1) is totally contradicted by 2) – Turkey’s NATO membership is largely useless if it means leading to a large US-supported ‘Kurdistan’.
A weak, divided ‘Kurdistan’ – the most likely outcome – might be ‘tolerated’ if it was confined to non-Turkish territory, and controlled by a corrupt strongman like Barzani. But that is a ‘lesser of two evils’ and not really a ‘lasting solution.’
Not least because Barzani is unable to control the Syrian Kurds and faces opposition on his own turf.
The Russians are not allied with the Kurds – they are allied with the SAA. They arm the Kurds as allies of the SAA, not as independent actors who seek the break-up of Syria. The composition of the Syrian state is a post-ISIS decision, which will be taken only when ISIS are defeated.
4) The US will not bog the Russians down in the Syrian quagmire – that one lesson learned from Afghanistan. In fact it’s the US that is facing more popular opposition at home, and which is increasingly finding it more difficult to justify its games in Syria: the Pentagon may finally face a decades-overdue audit if Trump gets in.
It’s still an open question I think – Turkey has to decide which of the powers is best-placed to solve the Syrian Kurdish question. The US and it’s ethnofascist ‘Kurdistan’, or Russia/Iran with their integrationist, multi-ethnic/faith, pluralist Syria?
But one thing is certain: Syria is a quagmire and has just become bigger and deeper with the Turkish invasion. Russia is already in it (Iran’s commitment is uncertain). US is indirectly but only partially in it via its support for Turkey and the Free Syrian forces and the Al-Nusra Front. The goal is domination of the middle East and its 60% of the world’s oil and gas reserves. If Russia wants to equalise, it will have to draw the US in deeper. But how? The only way is to strengthen Assad to attack the Free Syrian forces and the Al-Nusra Front. That’s why Aleppo will have to fall to Assad fast. But whether the US will take the bait will have to wait for the new US president and especially if Hillary becomes the new president. Obama is now too relaxed to consider deeper involvement in Syria.
What I mean to say is that Turkish anxieties about an autonomous state in its southern flanks is calmed because the Turkish invasion and capture of Jarabulus ensure that it can’t happen i.e. the creation of a Kurdish autonomous state along its southern flanks!
Can someone please clarify something for me? If Turkey supports the terrorists by sending them supplies etc, why are the jihadists blowing themselves up at Turkey’s weddings and airports?
Ditto for the USA.
Not all the terrorist acts are false flags, one would assume.
I am totally confused.
The majority of bombings have either been Kurds targeting Turkish police and military
Or ISIS targetting Turkish Kurds or their supporters. Not sure about the airport bombing.
Some months ago Turkey used the excuse of ISIS to bomb Kurds in Iraq and Syria. This time Erdogan has done the same.
Erdogans support/voter base in Turkey seem to have ideologies not far removed from ISIS and al Qaeda. Not a big step for ISIS/AQ foot soldiers to join Turkey’s “Free Syrian Army” where they will come under the control of Erdogan.
Those are likely by IS.
Call it the ‘Lawerence of Arabia’ effect.
“Rather it looks as if CIA and military officials on the ground in Syria have been going their own way, encouraging the YPG to expand as fast as it can, heedless of the larger consequences.”
Lawrence had the ‘Arabs’ convinced that their effort would lead to independence. But the generals and the diplomats had other plans and were dividing up the map under Sykes-Picot.
To be a ‘handler’, you have to convince those you are ‘handling’ that you are on their side. You have to succeed in providing them support. You have to at least convince them you are fighting on their side in trying to get them the weapons they want. In general, emotionally, a ‘handler’ will tend to get attached to the cause they are working on in the same way Lawrence did with the Arabs.
The policy looks confusing until you realize that Lawerence isn’t making the policy, just selling the Arabs on dying for the cause.
Looks like that Turkey is under enormous pressure to remain a performer to the west. Like it or not, Erdogan has no other choice. He knows he’s been lucky to have skipped the coup. He must act more decisively from now on or else. Erdogan’s playing with Russia ,Iran and China just to buy time.
Details of a deal between Turkey and Syria are starting to seep through. If true, this is groundbreaking:
https://yallalabarra.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/damascus-and-ankara-strike-a-deal-erdogan-gets-the-kurds-and-assad-gets-aleppo/
Far and away the most illuminating information on the situation so far – thanks for the link.
Absolute must-read for everyone, especially the Saker.
US-NATO-Turkey Invasion of Northern Syria: CIA “Failed” Turkey Coup Lays Groundwork for Broader Middle East War?
By Prof Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, August 29, 2016
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-turkey-invasion-of-northern-syria-cia-failed-turkey-coup-lays-groundwork-for-broader-middle-east-war/5542921?print=1
Poor Kurds. It seems that they are the losers in the Syrian war despite all their efforts. That’s why they are now reacting and expanding the war! They will not allow peace without their autonomous state. But what can they do?
When its all over only Kurdish villages will survive the coming war.
You have to hand it to Turkey.
They are almost as good as the Americans, British, or Anglo Zionists when it comes to treachery, back-stabbing, and deceit.
The whole staging a fake “coup” against Erdogan was an audacious scam that was temporarily able to sucker Russia (and many “alternative media” sites) into believing that Turkey was possibly turning away from America and NATO and also gain acquiesence from Russia to this Turkish aggression against Syria.
That said, Turkey will reap the whirlwind with its treachery, as the YPG may step up its guerilla war against Turkey and Turkish attempts to save its beloved moderate terrorists in Aleppo still fail.
I’d rather read your posts any day Saker
The only good thing about about some of the pseudo analysis doing the rounds the last few days is that it has brought out closet trolls and fairweather friends.
One minute Putin’s great, next minute Putins a fool, Putins a sucker, conned by US/erdogan ect ect. A lot of very shallow people frequenting these alternative blogs.
Makes me see why the powers that be have become the hegemon.
Turkey took action, in my view, because Washington is hopelessly divided and working at cross-purposes. The power vacuum had to be filled I suppose and now that Erdogan has solidified his power he can act as he pleases without fear of any opposition within Turkey. He wants to establish facts on the ground and then negotiate from a position of strength so that when the next administration in Washington takes the till they can get what they want. If it’s Clinton, then they have a reliable partner to destroy what is left of Syria.
It’s complicated (Pt 1)
Seems the FSA includes Barzani-affiliated peshmerga Kurdish forces on Jarabalus, who accuse the YPD of operating on behalf of the Syrian ‘regime’:
http://ekurd.net/barzani-affiliated-forces-syria-2016-08-31
the plan to create kurdistan is isreal’s for they are not arabs an have good relations with isreal , a kurdistan allied with isreal gives them a base right in the center of their plan for ‘greater isreal’ a base that puts them right on Iran’s border which is their main problem an is why isreals constant calls for war on Iran . turkeys attacks on kurds is in someway going to help create kurdistan we see the whole anti islam movement being constantly pushed in usa bottem line its still just sunni {isis} vs shite {iran,syria} isis was built by sunni’s recently put out of power {money,jobs} in Iraq an crime was the only way to survive since the govt in power now in Iraq is the same group of shites that they {sunni’s} oppressed forever. {payback is a b…h} so Isis is also created to help bring about ‘greater isreal’
A couple of (new to me) analysts who have alternate views as set forth in the latest MOA update.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/Elijah J. Magnier reports for the Kuwait AlRai on the deal with some special insight on the Russian role:
During their meeting in St. Petersburg and following consecutive reunions later, plus an exchange of visits by high-ranking military officials, Russia and Turkey agreed on the role the Turkish forces could be offered in Syria, within specific parameters that will serve both sides interest, as long as there are limits and guarantees offered by both parties.
..
Russia has accepted a Turkish incursion into Syrian territory due to the Kurds’ declared hostility to the government in Damascus when YPG forces attacked and expelled the Syrian army from al-Hasakah city to the suburbs, with US backing, – a clear intention to initiate the partition of Syria. Russia stands against a Kurdish state ruled by the US in the new Kremlin Mediterranean base, Syria.
Turkey expressed its willingness to collaborate and instruct many rebel groups under its direct influence, to reject unification, avoid the merger proposed by Nusra, and keep its distance from the Jihadists, mainly in the northern city of Aleppo. […] Turkey agreed to avoid any contact or clash with the Syrian army, mainly around Aleppo, in support of the Syrian rebels and jihadists.
Russia made it clear to Turkey that it will not tolerate any infringement of the agreement or any clash with the Syrian Army drawing clear redlines, and threatening that its Air Force will hit the Turkish forces and its proxies in case of any similar violation.
“
The Turkish invasion of Syria shows that the same goals exist for the U.S. and Turkey. Erdogan stabbed Putin in the back and the U.S. did the same to him. The NATO gang will never give up. It is as stupid as it is relentless.
The one factor never mentioned with regard to Erdogan’s wild swings in policy and mood is serious mental illness. The pattern of his behavior and actions betrays a fundamental disorganization and inability to hold a consistent position. He is taken seriously as someone to “figure out,” when in fact he’s simply nuts. See Crazy Erdogan? Turkey’s PM Loses his Grip on 05/16/2014 http://www.opednews.com/articles/Crazy-Erdogan-Turkey-s-PM-by-Michael-Collins-Disaster-Mining_Rejep-Tayyip-Erdogan_Turkey-140516-341.html&series=290
Erdogan rules a major nation with a huge army. He’s cleared out any potential opposition. There is a method in his madness, which obscures the fact that he is quite mad. Get used to it. There will be more.
1) Why would Turkey request US air support if the coup was genuine and the US was behind it?
2) What better way to control/influence the YPG advance than by being embedded with them?
http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/31/top-usa-national-security-officials-admit-turkey-coup/
Interesting article. However, actions speak louder than words. And, as far as I know, US nukes haven’t been removed from Turkey. Please consider this further question: Is it possible the US was involved in a deliberate false-flag coup (Gulen wittingly or unwittingly participating)?
V.V. Putin did not wake up one morning last month and see Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau in his bathroom mirror.
None of us know any more about the Russian – US – Syrian – Turkish kerfuffle (myself included) than Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense decide to tell us. It is an established fact the US government only publishes the truth when the truth is irrelevant.
Yes, now Russia has to make up stories to promote their action on the battlefield. We must now wrap our minds around that.
And if it forces the Pentagon to make a stupid move: Mission Accomplished.
But it serves no purpose whatsoever for the commenters here to get upset and take it personally when the ‘good guys’ resort to a little “deception in warfare.”
http://tass.com/politics/897984
Why would Putin trust a member of NATO?