by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
It seems that Erdogan has already made up his mind, but the speculations about what deals have been and haven’t been done seem muddied, to put it mildly.
In the Levant, the Kurds always lose in the end, and regardless of what alliances they make and with whom, they always end up getting stabbed in the back; or at least abandoned. But when they team up with parties like the USA, and even Israel, what else can they expect?
However, the Kurd’s obsession of having their statehood by any means, and the resistance they face and the unpreparedness of certain parties to work together to ensure that there will be no foreign intervention, they all have their adverse consequences. What we see happening in Syria’s north today is the direct outcome of this.
America had been looking for half an excuse to invade Syria for a very long time, and knowing that it wasn’t able to have a full-on presence that would allow it to carpet bomb the whole nation, it used the Kurdish excuse and the false pretext of creating a “security zone” in order to justify its presence on Syrian soil; against Syria’s wish.
But to do this, America needed allies on the ground, and instead of working together with its natural partner and NATO member Turkey (which happens to be a regional superpower) on common denominators, America’s inability to negotiate and give and take, even with its most ardent allies, repelled Turkey and America had to resort to an alliance with the YPG Kurds. What comes next is more sinister.
It is not clear what was Russia’s initial position on establishing any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria. As a matter of fact, Syria’s FM Walid Mouallem hinted back in September 2017 that the Syrian Government was prepared to look into a limited Kurdish cultural autonomy (https://arabic.rt.com/middle_east/900959-وزير-الخارجية-السوري-لـ-rt-الإدارة-الذاتية-سوريا-وهذا-أمر-قابل-للتفاوض-والحوار/), but this did not go very far. And long before Mouallem’s remark, President Assad himself hinted back in 2012 that the efforts of the people of Ain Al Arab (Kobani in Kurdish) will not be forgotten. But of course, this does not mean he was hinting at some form of autonomy. Was the Syrian Government pressured to not explore every possible avenue for reconciliation with its Kurdish population? And if so, by whom and why? Surely not by Russia because, Russia had always been sympathetic and understanding of Kurdish fears and aspirations. Who else could have stood in the way of reaching some form of pre-emptive reconciliation between the Syrian Government and Syrian Kurds before events reached the dangerous climax they are at today? Definitely not Iran or Turkey.
Arguably, it can be said that the way the YPG went to bed with America has led to its abandonment by the Syrian Government and all other potential allies outside the American circle of influence, and this cannot be more obvious given the recent history of the YPG. In all honesty however, we must in hindsight ask whether it was possible to avoid this impasse or at least mitigate it. We don’t know. Either way, it is probably already too late to “reconcile” and President Assad himself has recently referred to those Kurds who are under America’s beck-and-call as “traitors”.
Ironically, an ardent opposition of having any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria was, and continues to be, Turkey’s Erdogan. He is concerned about the snow-ball effect and the possibility of similar Turkish-Kurdish aspirations. And Turkey is a multi-ethnic nation with vulnerabilities that cannot be ignored in this crazy era of human history.
Erdogan had told his American “allies” time and time again that they cannot be strategic allies of Turkey if they want to endorse any form of a formal Kurdish entity; even one that is only nominally cultural. Yet, Obama’s USA did not listen any more than Trump’s. They dug in their heels and continued to intimidate in their presence in Syria not only Syria, but also Russia and most ironically, their ally Turkey.
Syria wants America out of Syria.
Russia wants America out of Syria.
Iran wants America out of Syria.
Turkey doesn’t really care if America is in or out of Syria, but Turkey definitely wants the YPG and any other Kurdish military forces disabled in order to put a stop to any possible Kurdish entity from materializing.
But now that the wolf (aka America) is in, who is going to kick it out before it huffs and puffs and blows the whole region in?
The Syrian Army cannot engage directly against American troops, let alone militia supported by America, without risking a major direct military escalation with America itself. As a matter of fact, America perhaps wishes for this to happen as this will justify a bigger presence.
But hang on, let’s not forget that Russian troops are on the ground in Syria, and the Russians and Americans have thus far succeeded in avoiding direct confrontation for decades. Such indirect interaction is something that both super powers are familiar with, and they know how to do it. But this of course means that Russia cannot directly be engaged in ousting American troops from Syria. On the flip-side, America cannot engage with Russia either in an attempt to, say, oust President Assad.
How about Iran then? Well, Iran is already under American (and Israeli) threats, even without engaging directly against American troops. Iran may choose to engage against America or be drawn into such an engagement, but to do this willingly in order to protect Syrians Kurds is an unlikely scenario.
In reality therefore, only Turkish troops can do the job without creating much international havoc of far-reaching devastation.
Does this mean that there is a tacit approval on behalf of the Syrian Government for the Turkish so-called “Olive Branch” operation? Not at all, and in fact, most unlikely. Is there then perhaps an agreement between Turkey on one hand with Russia and Iran on the other hand on this? Also highly unlikely. However, Erdogan knows well that only he can engage in fighting American cohorts in Syria, and he is doing it with or without any need for support, not even tacit support, from either Russia, Iran or Syria.
Now let’s not forget that Turkey is a NATO member and that it houses the Incirlik airbase. However, unlike back in 1955 when Turkey was desperate to join NATO in fear of the “Communist peril”, America and NATO now need Turkey much more than Turkey needs NATO. To Erdogan, if he had to choose between the potential risks of losing Turkey’s NATO membership as against having a Kurdish state south of his border, he would choose the former.
But to Erdogan, his stand against America is not only religiously and nationalistically based, it is also personal. Apart from his doctrinal fundamentalist and nationalist attributes, he regards America as the nation that hosts and protects his political enemy and rival Gulen; who ironically still enjoys a huge level of support within Turkey, despite all the clampdowns on his supporters after the July 2016 coup attempt.
Erdogan and Trump are now playing chicken with each other, each looking at his opponent to see who is going to back off first. Trump has no idea that Erdogan will not waver and that he will simply not allow a Kurdish state south of his border, even though it is not meant to be on Turkish territory. The truth of the matter is that America has never ever considered its allies as friends who may have common objectives with America, but also happen to have their own interests. America is used to dictating its terms and conditions on its allies without a second thought.
But Trump, like his predecessor before him, does not seem to realize that they have pushed Erdogan to the limit and that he is now taking America to task.
So apart from whether or not there are undisclosed deals between Syria, Turkey, Iran and Russia, the fact that they all agree that none of them wants any form of Kurdish autonomy, lifts Erdogan up to the level of the one and only “hero” who can deal with it as he is the only one who doesn’t give a damn about what happens between him and America. He even seems to be reveling in the attention he is receiving at home by challenging America, as this is bolstering his popularity and further enabling him to target Gulen and America who is held responsible for his political survival by giving him asylum.
But in doing all of this, and to follow up on the previous article (http://10.16.86.131/erdogans-karmic-trap/), Erdogan has clearly made his choice as to which side on the Syrian ground he is going to support.
Erdogan seems to be distancing himself from Al-Nusra Front, or is he? Well, on the surface at least, he is pushing the card of the allegedly least radical of all militarized Syrian opposition groups; the so-called “Free Syria Army” (FSA). The original FSA members back in 2011 were mainly defectors of the Syrian Army. Back then, they were the only military force on the ground before all the Jihadis and mercenaries came in. No one can really tell with certainty what percentage of those fighters today are of Syrian Army origin, but what is pertinent here is that Erdogan is not going into Afrin together with Al-Nusra Front fighters, but rather with FSA fighters.
To a Syrian patriot, there is no real difference between the FSA and Al-Nusra Front. However, on the books as it were, the FSA is not a fundamentalist Jihadist organization. And as Astana/Geneva/Sochi talks will resume at some stage, lifting the profile of the FSA at one minute to midnight might give the elusive so-called “moderate Syrian opposition” a last minute mouth-to-mouth resuscitation; courtesy of Erdogan. After all, if push comes to shove, the Al-Nusra fighters that Erdogan wishes to protect can always shave their beards and wear FSA uniforms.
It’s a “clever”, or rather conniving, move by Erdogan, because by supporting and resurrecting the FSA, not only is he distancing himself from Al-Nusra Front, but he is bringing back the “moderate Syrian opposition” to the forefront and potentially giving it a place in the final negotiation process, and this fact, may also be used by him as an un-severed link with his American “allies”, because if he wanted to watch his back just in case he needed America in the near future, he can always argue that he did not send his troops into Syria to support President Assad, but rather to support the opposition.
Whichever way events move on from here, Russian diplomacy will be given the ultimate challenge. The time for muscle power in the skies for Russian bombers is over, at least for a while.
Syrian Kurds seek Damascus’ protection as Turkey’s Erdogan vows to return Afrin to ‘owners’
https://www.rt.com/news/417028-afrin-kurds-help-assad-deploy-troops/
“Kurdish officials in Afrin have urged Damascus to send troops to protect Syria’s sovereignty from the “Turkish occupier.” Ankara insists it will return the enclave to its “original owner” after its “liberation” from “terrorists.”
That sounds like the panic of the israeli-american handlers of those kurd quislings, trying to use said quislings in a desperate attempt to goad Syria into fighting turkey.
Oh noes, Turkey is supporting the FSA! Well duh, which is better politically for Turkey – dead Turkish soldiers or dead FSA fsckwits? Once the Kurds realize they are better off with staying in Syria, then Turkey will focus on the eastern Kurds. The Afrin Kurds have already called on the SAA to control the border. The SAA will do so subject to suitable political conditions. The FSA/whatever will then be dealt with by the well-established tried-and-tested process – join in a peaceful solution for Syria or be eliminated.
The presense of the two 800 lb gorillas in the room requires a careful dance to achieve desired results for Syria, Russia, Iran, Iraq, and even Turkey.
Personally I would love to see the Kurds splitting off Turkey, but Kurds are not doing it right. V. Puting offered them a stepping stone, but they preferred Israel II. Well it serves them right. It looks like V.V. Putin’s plan is slowly unfolding. Also, I think that V.V. Putin offered them autonomy before, but now they’ll get nothing (you snooze you loose, or as some people would say it: sparrow in your hand is better than pigeon on the roof or greed is a b$tch). Of course time will tell.
I understand that Assad said that all those Syrians fighting on the behalf of the hegemon are and will be considered traitors, unless the surrender their weapons and join Mother Syria and then they’ll be forgiven.
Both Ankara, Damascus Seek to Thwart US-Backed SDF Presence in Syria – Analyst
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801261061099728-syria-turkey-us/
“By bringing the allegedly secular Free Syrian Army (FSA) to the forefront of Operation Olive Branch, Ankara is seeking to distance itself from the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front and to legitimize the FSA, comprised of those who instigated the war in Syria seven years ago, political analyst Ghassan Kadi told Sputnik.”
They have to get rid of SDF as well as the Americans. Turkey is the only one that can do it without getting nato and the coalition of the “willing” involved on the major scale. Unfortunately Kurds are betting on the wrong horse.
FSA = ISIS = TURKEY
All that has been achieved by giving arms to the FSA, is having them funnel it on to ISIS. This is Erdogan’s “Plan B”for Ottoman/Sunni supremacy. Plan “A” was regime change to a subservient Sunni ruler in Syria. The Globalist/Establishment/Obama cadre went along as it created chaos they could exploit.
The main players that want peace in Syria — Assad, Putin, and Trump need to come together to nip this in the bud.
The fact that the Kurds now seem willing to give ground to Assad’s forces is a positive sign. Erdogan will have to pull back, or face Syrian & Russian forces without U.S. support.
__________
The U.S. does not need Turkey’s Incirlik airbase. It is convienient, but the same missions could be flown off a carrier or from other nearby nations, such as Greece and Israel. NATO would be much stronger without Turkey, returning to its core mission of defending Christian Europe.
Turkey used to have a “zero problems with neighbours” foreign policy. Then it was convinced by the USA to carry water for Israel’s Yinon Plan for Syria. After Russia entered Syria and started defeating ISIS Turkey decided to switch sides and Obama’s coup attempt to overthrow Erdogan was unsuccessful.
@Israel’s Yinon Plan for Syria
The cornerstone of “Greater Israel” should have been “Kurdistan”, aka 2nd Israel. Remember the incessant Israeli propaganda trying to convince the Kurds of their ‘centuries old relations’ (they were even evoking the ancient Kingdom of Adiabene whose converted to Judaism dynasty allied itself with the Jews revolted against Rome) hinting even that the Kurds were crypto-Jews. The hapless Kurds fell for the story believing that they would be the recipients of the windfall of the revenues of the exploitation of oil by the Israelis.
America whose first concern in external policy is the well being of Israel, endorsed the plan, assuming that it would give short shrift to the regional resistance against such schemes. That explains IMHO the American refusal to acknowledge the realities on the ground and their dogged determination to implementing the plan, no matter what.
Turkey (and Greece) joined NATO in 1952 at the pressure of the Anglo-Americans.
US truly does not need Turkish base but they DO need their pecker prints there, as elsewhere throughout the world,”dog peeing on a hydrant” syndrome.
“NATO would be much stronger without Turkey, returning to its core mission of defending Christian Europe.”
Now, that’s just a truly wonderful backhanded compliment to “Christian Europe”, given the Bundeswehr with Nazi Germany’s Officer Corps almost intact by the time West Germany joined NATO in 1955. But the above proposal is flawed for a more obvious reason too:
With or without the erratic Erdogan regime in Turkey, it is NATO itself which knowingly and deliberately keeps Whitey throwing temper tantrums about “immivaders” undermining ‘secular/Christian European values’. Ergo: NATO knows 100% what it is doing. NATO is not sleeping on the job howsoever when Third World immigrants arrive in Whitey’s Christian European Heimat in ever growing numbers. NATO’s global war-mongering has this very creation of (northbound) refugee torrents in mind — not as a goal in itself, but to function as a battering ram against “pesky” labour laws and trade unions in the imperialist countries.
From a Euro-chauvinist perspective, NATO is obviously a “mixed blessing”. But that has nothing or very little to do with Turkey’s membership.
really ????
all western governments are totally controlled by the zionist force. driving immigrants to the west from incessant war-mongering to change laws that can be achieved by simply parliamentary votes everywhere makes little sense..even in France where Macron is remaking labor laws over great popular opposition..in spite of and in the face of it.
there has to be a greater yet simple goal for engendered mass immigration..and it likely and simply to eliminate any revolutionary potential by combined white ordinary classes of people against Jewish dominated western states.
western societies in a few years are going to be a true mess: tons of unruly migrants, millions of disaffected white people divided by all manner of social divisions/issues: racism, religion, genders and ideology..and of course massively unemployed. increasingly so every day… and deliberately terrorized to stoke all manner of social heat dysfunction and destruction
seems to me the zionist/anglophone power is building Dystopia all the better to control every one..mass immigrants for blame and focus for the state of society while they continue to kill off everybody. Opioids/GMO/Bad drinking water/vaccinations are only the start
Yes, really.
You seem to be ignorant of the difference a huge supply of insecure, precarious people has on the bargaining position of labour. Of course, parliamentary voting may very well be used to pass reactionary laws but without the demographic weapon at capital’s disposal, the prospect of strike action becomes appreciably more ominous.
At any rate, NATO has made its mission quite clear. Whitey is in for a “fun ride” indeed.
wages have not risen for 50 years…..
also for jobs competition… no need for mass immigration to drive wages down and keep them down. we have automation and increasing artificial intelligence making working the class redundant. working people must compete with machines for work now..forget immigrants
why engendered mass immigration then?
I don’t know whats planned, what the state is up to. but the dragon of high wages has long been slayed. there is more to this than labor issues
A simple and big offer from China to Ankara would do!
It would make them give the brussels bureaucrats and the washington warnutshells
the boot. And even a well managed internal midia campaign in Turkey convincing the average turk that “Europe and UE membership wants to see turks by the back” would do.
But undoubtedly time is not a western ally in this issue.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201801261061083237-syrian-army-european-equipment/
Syrian army find proof usa retraining ex daesh etc.at al tanf..to use to create sabotage…delay elections….
FSA = ISIS = TURKEY
I also wish that mathematics was this simple, but a good mathematician takes all the factors into consideration. I don’t say that I am a good mathematician but I can help you correct you incorrect equality, here..
FSA = ISIS = TURKEY = USA = Z
where Z is a subset of real players in the domain ISRAEL
This is Erdogan’s “Plan B”for Ottoman/Sunni supremacy
Erdogan does have neo-ottoman ambitions but you forgot greater Israel? facilitating the creation of ‘greater Israel’ was the driving force behind the Syrian war.
The Globalist/Establishment/Obama cadre went along as it created chaos they could exploit.
No, it was the opposite, Turkey went along hoping that the new ruler would be inclined towards Turkey. But behind the scenes it was not Turkey but Zionists, how can you ignore Israel who would benefit the most from the Syrian civil wars. The Saker has given in points the objectives that Israel would have achieved from the Syrian civil war.(/uncle-sam-dumps-the-kurds-yet-again/)
The main players that want peace in Syria — Assad, Putin, and Trump need to come together to nip this in the bud.
Trump? lol, and you forgot Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah. Including Trump in the ‘peace players’ list is an insult to the sacrifices of Iranians and Hezbollah who, apart from the obviously big Russian help, helped SAA with whatever means they had.
The fact that the Kurds now seem willing to give ground to Assad’s forces is a positive sign. Erdogan will have to pull back, or face Syrian & Russian forces without U.S. support.
You believe Assad will sacrifice his troops for a people who he himself called traitors? no player in the ongoing conflict takes the Kurds seriously anymore. Besides Ghassan Kadi has pointed out that Russia, Syria and Iran would profit from the ongoing Turkish campaign
The U.S. does not need Turkey’s Incirlik airbase. It is convenient, but the same missions could be flown off a carrier or from other nearby nations, such as Greece and Israel.
Apparently you understand geopolitics better than the AZ imperialists. Turkey is needed by NATO to counter Russian Black sea naval fleet and block Russian access to Mediterranean sea via Bosphorus strait. The Greeks and Israelis will be willing to do it, but how will they be able to do it when they don’t have access to Istanbul? and why trouble Greece and holy chosen Israel when NATO has Balkan military bases.
NATO would be much stronger without Turkey,
No one likes a liability, Turkey is an asset to NATO that is why it’s still there. The fact of USA betraying the Kurds for the Turks is itself a proof. The fact is that the question should be reversed. Does Turkey need NATO anymore? due to which it has to do all the empire’s dirty work from bombing Libya to supporting Takfiris in mid-east, which has tarnished it’s reputation among muslims.
NATO …returning to its core mission of defending Christian Europe.
Christian Europe? how much delusional can you really get? There is nothing Christian about Western Europe anymore. The fact is, most of the far-rights anti-Islam leaders in Europe are not even religious. As for defending Orthodox Christianity in Eastern Europe, Russia under Putin is doing a fabulous job. Putin is rebuilding monasteries and there is a rise in number of Russians who identify themselves as Christians. It’s the Eastern European Christian Orthodox nations led by Russia who has a Christian soul and not the rotten western Europe.
FSA=ISIS=USA=Z – – – in some ways I think its this way – FSA=ISIS=Z=USA
“The fact is that the question should be reversed. Does Turkey need NATO anymore?”
Turkey under Erdogan’s leadership is not in need of NATO the way that Greece under Tsipras is. It’s hilarious hearing someone blather about NATO’s “core mission” of defending Christian Europe while watching the ongoing demographic/religious shifts in allegedly Christian Europe — most notably in Greece — under the very auspices of selfsame NATO.
Erdogan who is a most determined power politician might be deluded, but given the CHG (Certified Human Garbage) which passes for leadership in the rotting-away, neoliberal Christian West he has considerable leeway, and he knows it. On this basis, staying in NATO becomes a pretty smart way of practising ‘reverse’ blackmail as the refugee crisis showed.
Just compare the above with the case of Greece whose need of NATO boils down to the extraction of loot from the Third World, pure and simple. Absent any significant industry apart from tourism and shipping — the latter industry enjoying (literally) offshore regulations meaning very little taxation — what remains of Greece’s First World standard of living is thanks to NATO. But since resistance is mounting from without while solidarity from within really doesn’t seem to be the most salient feature of Christian Europe these days, Greece is toast.
I have to disagree. The Greater Sunni Empire Sunni FSA = Sunni Turkey = Sunni ISIS , excludes the other non-Sunni players you mention. There may be temporary movement in a similar direction, but it is not a permanent alliance. The current U.S. Administration would like to get rid of Turkish connections to build bridges with Russia, but is limited by the mess Clinton/Obama Soros left behind.
Israel’s objectives with respect to Kurdistan seem more political than territorial. They are fairly effective at using the situation to blunt Arab public relations. Back in the 20’s-30’s the “International Law” right to an independent Kurdistan was created, though borders were never set. The fact that Arab nations violate “International Law” on regular basis by denying Kurdistan makes their complaints about Israel under “International Law” less than credible. The last thing Israel wants is for Arabs to actually give the Kurds a Kurdistan.
I’m much more sanguine. There really isn’t such a thing as “International Law”. Anyone who tries to rely on “International Law” to achieve something as Plan A, better have a Plan B ready to go.
OMG Isis is not Sunni, they are Wahhabi/salafi/takfiri(you can use anyone of these designations for this sect). Man how come people still make this common mistake. I will quickly explain what constitutes the Sunni sect. The Sunni sect is made up of 4 schools of thought, or schools of jurisprudence(madhab in Arabic). They are the hanafi, shafi, maliki, or hanbali. That’s it those are the 4 schools of thought in sunnisim, and they closed the doors to interpretation. So that means no new school of thought or jurisprudence can ever be added to the mentioned 4 Sunni groups.
Groups like daesh, AL-Qaeda, AL -nusra, all fall under the Wahhabi branch of so called “Islam”. I say so called because I don’t believe they are Muslim, but that’s something that’s way to long to get into, so I won’t get into that. The Wahhabi movement is a pretty recent phenomenon. The founder of this movement is Muhammad ibn Abdul wahhab, I think he was born somewhere around the 1700’s. The guy was so extreme in his views, and some of the stuff he proposed was so radically different then mainstream Islam. That even his own father, and brother, who were both Islamic scholars, warned people against his dangerous ideas. I think they even labeled him a heretic. I don’t want to make this post to long but again Isis is not Sunni, they are Wahhabi.
NATO’s core mission is anything but defending Christian Europe.
NATO is a weapon of globalist cabal and this cabal is doing everything to destroy Chrstianity in Europe through mass migration from non Chrstian countries, LGBT promotion, and destruction of traditional family values.
I know you are a pro-zionist Hindutva supporting Indian. You have not even mentioned Israel as the reason behind all the wars in middle east and blame Turkey for it. You must (ed) think (ed) people visiting this website would buy your arguments. It surprises me that you are worrying for the Christians in Europe, if you want to help Christians then please ask Yogi Adityanath, who says that Christianity is dangerous for India. Police under his reign have free hand to extort and threaten Christian families.
https://www.globalchristiannews.org/article/tag/yogi-adityanath/
Last time I saw your comment, it was all about gulf states using their petro-yuans to built muslim seminaries in Chinese region with significant muslim population, vot tak had rightly said back then that you would settle for nothing less than petro-shekels.
mod-to note: edited to remove personal attacks
A family of seven killed, tens of schools forced to close as Turkish aggression on Afin continues
https://sana.sy/en/?p=125491
A family of seven killed, tens of schools forced to close as Turkish aggression on Afin continues
https://sana.sy/en/?p=125491
Israeli-made mines, poisonous materials and weapons seized in Deir Ezzor
https://sana.sy/en/?p=125480
If Erdogan has made up his mind, it can only be temporary, and not long term. The difficulties for Turkey are as follows: (1) It is a multi ethnic country, (2) Historically it has always been heterogeneous from the political point of view, even during the Ottoman years, the Turks being divided between the Ottoman and Seljuk Turks, with the Ottomans having to use former Christians to fill high offices out of fear from the Seljuks, (3) It is split between Islamist’s and moderates, (4) The Ottoman Empire has not been forgotten, (5) It is a member of NATO, which instigated that coup d’etat against Erdogan, and as such can never be trusted again, especially not if Washington has plans for Turkey to be used against a potential military attack against Iran,(6) To the West it has the EU, and to the East it has Russia and China, and both are on the rise, politically and economically, with Turkey being somewhere in the middle, but beginning to look towards the East, as it’s virtually impossible for it to become an EU member.
What are Erdogans choices ? Joining the EU, which does not want him ? Stay in NATO, which plotted against him, possibly even preparing to drag him into a war with Iran ? Turn to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union, knowing perfectly well that Russia can never trust him, due to historical reasons, Russia being one of Turkeys traditional enemies ?
Any choice Erdogan makes can only be short term, although he must know that in the long run the East will be more attractive and logical to Turkey than the West. On the other hand, if all the above mentioned factors are taken into consideration, one has to ask the question what kind of future Turkey has. Some analysts have even questioned Turkey’s ability to stay united as a country, deducing that at some point Turkey may well break up, just like Ukraine. Time will tell. What is certain is that Turkey will never be a stable country.
McMaster, the McMoron has already made up his mind about Turkey.
https://news.antiwar.com/2017/12/12/mcmaster-qatar-and-turkey-sponsoring-extremist-ideology/
The State Department has made up its mind about Turkey.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/us-policy-toward-the-levant-kurds-and-turkey-by-joshua-landis/
So gas supplies and weapons sales (like the S-400) are Russia’s leverage over Erdogan’s misbehaviour and I’d guess Turkey’s all in on the side of a multipolar world because Qatar and China are the biggest investors in Turkey’s economy.
https://southfront.org/us-uk-france-saudi-arabia-and-jordan-propose-own-political-plan-to-solve-syrian-crisis/
Sticking their very unwanted noses in just before Sochi meeting….
Wow
https://southfront.org/israel-seeks-to-use-free-syrian-army-to-establish-40km-deep-safe-zone-in-southern-syria-report/
‘Ere we go…
Turks and Kurds are sleeping in the same bed with U.S.A . Be prepared to witness very interesting times …
Seems to me that the Kurds have agreed to assist Israel in its stepping stone journey to re-establish the Khazarian empire. If they succeed then Turkey will be partitioned and the Armenians will experience a rerun of the 1915’s. Then it will be Georgia’s turn. Or something like that.
Better for both Turkey and Syria to put a stop to this looney warmongering by Israel and its US proxy.
Hi Ghassan – Thanks for the article – your articles are always enjoyable to read – yes, there’s no doubt Erdogan is a snake – with a yellow stripe down its spine – he is bringing moderate terrorists FSA back into Syria after they have only just left – I was shocked – no wonder Assad hates Erdogan. your quote here
“…It’s a “clever”, or rather conniving, move by Erdogan, because by supporting and resurrecting the FSA, not only is he distancing himself from Al-Nusra Front, but he is bringing back the “moderate Syrian opposition” to the forefront and potentially giving it a place in the final negotiation process, and this fact, may also be used by him as an un-severed link with his American “allies”, because if he wanted to watch his back just in case he needed America in the near future, he can always argue that he did not send his troops into Syria to support President Assad, but rather to support the opposition.
Whichever way events move on from here, Russian diplomacy will be given the ultimate challenge. The time for muscle power in the skies for Russian bombers is over, at least for a while.”
that’s great news about Russian diplomacy – although I think today there was something that happened Jan 26th that made me wonder if Russian forces would be active –
“Syria wants America out of Syria.
Russia wants America out of Syria.
Iran wants America out of Syria.
Turkey doesn’t really care if America is in or out of Syria, but Turkey definitely wants the YPG and any other Kurdish military forces disabled in order to put a stop to any possible Kurdish entity from materializing.”
That is a perceptive summary of the Syrian conflict in general but with the Zionist Entity and Saudi Arabia missing from the list of key actors involved.
Israel has a very strong, nay, congenital commitment to land-grabbing — indeed its only raison d’être — and it covets far more than just Syria and the already stolen free-squatting zone which was historic Palestine. This alone shouldn’t matter much to Erdogan as Turkey proper doesn’t feature in Zionism’s psychotic wet-dreams. But it puts Israel squarely behind the US presence in Syria, and that might become a problem so Erdogan had better assess the situation carefully.
Saudi Arabia, in the specific Syrian war context, is committed first and foremost to Sunni fundamentalist terrorism, correctly seeing Assad as part of the Shia axis of resistance together with Iran and Hezbollah. Hence, the US presence in Syria is highly desirable as it serves as the conveyor belt right into the country of assorted ‘moderate’ liver-eaters. From Erdogan’s perspective, this isn’t something to worry about either. He is a Sunni Muslim after all and Assad is none of his esteemed friends.
Bottom line: The Kurds are and remain the chief concern in the mind of Erdogan as the author points out.
“But when they /the Kurds/ team up with parties like the USA, and even Israel, what else can they expect?”
Judicious question indeed. Also, there is merit to the reverse question: When the Zionazis turn to a bunch of über-losers such as the Kurds (never mind the Ukronazis and the Takfiri liver-eaters), what does that tell about Zionazi invincibility, LOL.
Thanks mr. Kadi, for an interesting analysis and a fine read.
However, I’m still not convinced that this Turkish incursion will settle things.
I was triggered by this alignment with the FSA, who are now presented as something ‘reasonable’. Are they?
Look at what the wicked Israeli’s are planning: https://southfront.org/israel-seeks-to-use-free-syrian-army-to-establish-40km-deep-safe-zone-in-southern-syria-report/
“The goal of this effort is to push Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed forces 40km away from the Israeli border. An unnamed officer of the FSA told the Intercept that Israel is even willing to push these forces “as far back as Hama.””
Add to that, that one might ask itself what happened to the more than 100000 ISIS troops. Some 10000 were shipped to Afghanistan by US forces, and a number of 10-15000 are now in the Kurdish territory, serving the usual: http://www.voltairenet.org/article199456.html
So, this is starting to look like growing AZ tumors from the south west and the north east, and who knows how much more ‘security zones’ they are going to be claiming.
I think this is far from over. Could it even be, that Turkey itself is tricked into something? Because it’s too obvious that they would act against a Kurdish statelet.
I wouldn’t count out either, that Russia has to step in again.
Cheers, Rob
I was thinking of the Erdo-Poro relationship -friendship too in the last coupla years or so….wondering of its current importance…how does it influence relationship with VVP……
Thank you for the article.
Erdogan is definitely a conniving actor, but he has survived a blatant assassination attempt, which all keen observers know must of at least been sanctioned by the empire, if not explicitly assisted by the empire.
He’s been dangled the EU-entrance carrot far too long, eventually extinguishing every last possibility of good faith from the empire’s stooges in Europe.
He is wily enough to know that Turkey will NEVER get an equal partner place at the trough with the empire’s pigs!
His future, the future for Turkey in Asia.
And Turkey is well-placed and well-positioned to do extremely well under the emerging alternative geo-political paradigm!
Perhaps even, in the possibly not-too-distant future, Turkey may return to Europe and dictate the terms of trade to an impoverished, cannibalized broken set of fragmented societies.
I’m not too trusting of Erdogan, nor Turkish culture, but they have been relentlessly screwed over since the fall of the Ottomans, maybe with good reason, but it doesn’t matter now. The unbounded hubris of the empire and it’s depraved masters, has enabled Erdogan definitely turned (for the moment anyhow).
If he plays his cards right, he can be pivotal in rubbing the empire’s face in the shit that they have created; and I real think that would be a goal that he would consider worth pursuing with vigor.
Furthermore, this is an opportunity to engender a similar level of status in the emerging multi-polar geo-politique, as Iran has garnered with their de facto non-aggression/alignment with the Asian alliance (Russian-China). This would further enhance Turkey’s positioning to reap great return on the Eurasian economic integration model China is currently building.
The empire is collapsing, and any reasonably objective observer of the geo-politique can see it.
Of course the U.S.A./Israel-Israeli-controlled hegemony is hysterical about preventing a shia-arc to the Mediterranean; a move which would set back the game plan (Oded Yinons) for an order of magnitude greater land theft in the Middle East by a hundred years. But it has ALWAYS been the plan, so it will not be stopped until the perpetrators and continuing gangsters behind the plan are held accountable, and full reparations are made; what would become of the so-called moderate colonizers (i.e. “the good jews”) will become the agonizing questions, for no one will want them near by.
I see the Turkey offensive in Syria as consistent with a strategy that will undermine the empire’s immediate goals and weaken them further; which I think is good.
However, eventual conventional war success for the empire has been an extremely low probability-of-success option for quite a while, and the zionist agents continue to put instabilities and nuclear-capable weapons systems all over the place, including the encirclement of Russia-China.
Which still leaves the necessary involvement of all of the free minds under the greater ‘western-industrialized-nations-occupation’ to become involved and take action.
1. Awaken and free the minds of fellow citizens (take precautions, of course)
2. Find ways to a. publicize the extreme privileges of the collective;s adherents, and b. undermine the control of the parasite and communicate the method to … everybody.
the article needs to address the real reason why the Kremlin allowed the Turks to bomb Afrin. Is it that they backed off by Turkish pressure or, is it because they want the Turks to be involved in war against the Kurds so the US will be demonized? I really don’t get the point of making the Turkish state more powerful as it will never be a Russian ally nor it will leave NATO.
Turkey needs to atone for years of supporting anti-Syrian terrorists.
As it happens the timing allows them to settle an old score at the same time.
The article is correct, Turkey is the only player capable of punching the yankees and not getting invaded because of it.
Coup, Silk Road, Kurds, NATO, there aren’t any choices here. I suspect this to be a Russian suggestion, Erdogan was given a green light to end the mess he helped create.
Afterwards withdraw from Syria and reap trade profits and regional stability.