The House of Saud’s ties to the Khashoggi slaying are being milked by the Turkish President for maximum benefit amid debate on leadership of the Islamic world and how the crisis may affect US and Saudi strategy in the Middle East
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with The Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
It was packaged as a stark, graphic message, echoing across Eurasia: Presidents Erdogan and Putin, in a packed hall in Istanbul on Monday, surrounded by notables, celebrating completion of the 930 kilometer-long offshore section of the TurkStream gas pipeline across the bottom of the Black Sea.
This is no less than a key landmark in that fraught terrain I named ‘Pipelineistan’ in the early 2000s. It was built by Gazprom in only two and a half years despite facing massive pressure from Washington, which had already managed to derail TurkStream’s predecessor, South Stream.
TurkStream is projected as two lines, each capable of delivering 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas a year. The first will supply the Turkish market. The second will run 180 km to Turkey’s western borderlands and supply south and southeast Europe, with first deliveries expected by the end of next year. Potential customers include Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary.
Call it the Gazprom double down. Nord Stream 1 and 2 supply northern Europe while TurkStream supplies southern Europe. Pipelines are steel umbilical cords. They represent liquid connectivity at its best while conclusively decreasing risks of geopolitical friction.
Turkey is already being supplied by Russian gas via Blue Stream and the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Significantly, Turkey is Gazprom’s second largest export market after China.
Erdogan’s speech, strenuously emphasizing the benefits of Turkey’s energy security, was played and replayed all across a rainy, ultra-congested Istanbul. To witness this geopolitical and geoeconomic breakthrough was particularly enlightening, as I was deep into discussing Turkish geopolitics with members of the progressive Turkish Left.
Even the opposition to what in Europe is routinely defined as Erdogan’s brand of “Asian illiberalism” concedes Turkey-Russia trade connectivity – in energy, in the military domain via the sale of the S-400 missile system, in the building of nuclear power plants – has been conducted with consummate skill by Erdogan, who is always careful to send direct and indirect messages to Washington that Turkish national interests will not be compromised.
The big prize: leading Islam
Now juxtapose this developing entente cordiale between the Bear and the (aspiring) Sultan with the gripping drama in Istanbul. Ibrahim Karagul – never afraid to apply a Rabelais touch – is always useful as a mirror reflecting the state of play of AKP circles around Erdogan.
For this political elite, a breakthrough in the Erdogan-conducted “Death By a Thousand Leaks” is imminent, allegedly proving that Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) directly gave the order for the killing and slaying of Jamal Khashoggi.
The consensus among the AKP leadership – confirmed by independent Left academics – is that the US-Israel-House of Saud-UAE axis is deep in negotiations to extricate MBS from any culpability.
That includes key items in the hefty Erdogan “package” dangled to the axis to essentially buy Ankara’s silence – an end of the Saudi blockade on Qatar and the extradition of Fetullah Gulen, described across the Turkish political spectrum as the leader of FETO (the Fetullah Terrorist Organization).
The Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry are very much aware that the high-stakes game goes way beyond ‘Pulp Fiction’ in Istanbul and the Astana peace process on Syria – carefully micro-managed by both Putin and Erdogan alongside Iran’s Rouhani. The big prize is no less than the leadership of the Islamic world.
There is nowhere better than a few stops in select landmarks of Ottoman imperial power, or a lively conversation at Istanbul’s Old Book Bazaar, to be reminded that this was the seat of the Islamic Umma for centuries – a role usurped by those Arabian desert upstarts.
Alastair Cooke has captured with perfection the House of Saud’s close involvement in the slaying of Khashoggi and how this raises questions about Saudi Arabia’s status as “no more than an inept Custodian of Mecca and Medina”. This is indeed splashed all over the – Erdogan-aligned – Turkish media. And Cooke notes how this status “would strip the Gulf of much of its significance and value to Washington”.
My ongoing conversations with progressive, Kemalist Turkish academics – yes, they are a minority – have unveiled a fascinating process. The Erdogan machine has sensed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to simultaneously bury the House of Saud’s shaky Islamic credibility while solidifying Turkish neo-Ottomanism, but with an Ikhwan framework.
And that’s the rationale behind Erdogan and Turkish media relentlessly denouncing what is interpreted as a plot concocted by MBZ (MBS’s puppet master), Tel Aviv and the Trump administration.
No one can possibly advance the endgame. But that carries the strong possibility of a dominant, Erdogan-led Turkey all across the lands of Islam, allied with Qatar and also with Iran. Plus all of the above enjoying very close geopolitical and economic relations with Russia. Expect major fireworks ahead.
Bravo, Pepe — another stunning read of yours!
”Saudi Arabia’s status as ’no more than an inept Custodian of Mecca and Medina’.”
And, one might add, the status of the US as an utterly brain damaged, soon deposed Guardian of Tel Aviv, Riyadh, and ISIS. The Trump regime of narcissists, fraudsters, and neocon criminals try to substitute their own sweet fantasies for material reality. Not even Erdogan would have them in the end, LOL.
Saying goes—“When one thief steals from another thief–God Laughs!
God must be rolling on the floor in Fits of Laughter over the “Khashoogi–er–Incident”.
Picture it—member of a family of well know Death Dealers did not die peacefully in his bed, but noisily by the blade of a Chainsaw.
I want to cry–but, tears fail me.
I suspect Erdogon is holding a particular trump card up his sleeve and waiting for the time to play it…. and it will be to Trump’s disadvantage.
Turkey and Erdogon said quite clearly that they had supplied the tapes of the execution to the CIA among others. The CIA came out and as much as said they knew who was responsible. Trump came out and said the CIA was wrong, and managed in a strange statement to infer that everything is Iran’s fault, including an execution inside a Saudi consulate.
Should Erdogon decide to release that recording publicly, Trump doesn’t have much room to back peddle. Trump’ appears quite used to looking foolish, but his makes him look corrupt.
So far, no one in America has followed up on the pre-election collusion meetings in Lebanon between representatives of the Trump campaign, Netanyahu and Mbs. I wonder just how much the propaganda machine can withstand, should Trump look to be so beholden to his pre-election colluders that he even denies evidence the CIA has so Trump can still back MbS. The groundwork has been set by all the talk about being a traitor under Putin’s control. Its a short distance to being a traitor under MbS’ control.
And, it seems to me another place for Erdogon to move is to support the Palestinian cause. I’m no expert on the Arab world, but MbS being in open alliance with Israel and Netanyahu seems highly likely to create disgust in the Arab world. If Erdogon wants to be leader of Islam, it seems like a powerful point at which to jab the Sauds. Erdogon’s ally in Qatar has apparently stepped up in funding the Palestinians. But, Turkey could contribute in other ways. After all, its one thing for Israel to stop and arrest private citizens who try to bring desperately needed aid to Gaza. But official Turkish boats could be a different story. With lots of Turkish coverage as they leave about how desperately the aid is needed in Gaza, and live TV coverage on Turkish TV from the boats as they approach the Gaza coast. That doesn’t mean that Israel isn’t above killing the whole lot by blowing up the boats, but Turkey and Erdogon could raise the stakes to a whole new level…. and Israel happens to now have an inexperienced, rookie defense minister.
An interesting touch would be to rename the ships of this new Gaza flotilla after the peaceful activists murdered by the Israelis in the raid on the 2010 Gaza flotilla containing the Mavi Marmara.
If Erdogon wants to be considered the leader of Islam, then he needs to grab the emotional attention of the people who follow Islam.
Ha erdy going against israhell. Nice one.
For one turkey has an ambassy and official relations with israhell. And no matter how you spin it that’s actually worse than the current “covert” relations between sa and israhell.
Also the Muslim world still hasn’t recovered from the meeting and happy handshake of wannabe sultan and the butcher of sabraa and chatila (go read about that if you dare)
Sabraa and chatila were palestinian refugee camps. The zios and their stooges encircled it for 2 days and went in shooting anything that moved from the children to the elderly to the women to the cats to the dogs. It took 2 days and 2 nights to hunt down every last child in there. When people as in journalists and useless medics were allowed in they found the 3500 bodies piled high sometimes 6 or 7 children stacked on top of each other as they tried to squeeze themselves in alley ways so there weren’t found.that didnt save them. roads were blocked by the bodies of people running away and gunned down in the back. The stench of death was so strong people couldn’t breathe when going in and had to wear scarfs around their mouths. They found pieces of what was left of the last to die the women and children raped and tortured.
“The groundwork has been set by all the talk about being a traitor under Putin’s control. Its a short distance to being a traitor under MbS’ control.”
How short is the step to being a traitor under Israel’s control?
Gosh, recall how quickly the USSR came crashing down after an East German guard opened the gate in the Bornholmer Strasse.
Maybe there is a “gate” metaphorically speaking in Istanbul or elsewhere just waiting to be opened that would bring the DC-Tel Aviv-Riyadh axis crsahing to the dust. . .
Katherine
What Pepe sums up describing is an Islamic world led by Muslim Brotherhood aligned with Shiia. That seems improbable.
Erdogan and Qatar have failed using war to achieve what might occur now that the Saudi Kingdom is painted in Khashoggi blood and Yemeni starved-to-death children. (Today, we have a report in the news of 85,000 dead, starved children.)
What is clear from other news (Mattis and other Pentagon voices) is excuse making to mute the CIA flat-out “MBS is guilty finding.”
What the split signals, to me, is that the US military will be the savior of the Kingdom’s oil should the Saud family finally collapse. This intervention would be to prevent Shiia forces grabbing the natural resources of SA. That oil will be American oil in the end. An enlarged base in Qatar and in the Gulf states is underway already.
Clearly, the Kingdom is the closest to losing its hold on the religious turf of Islam, as well as the economic power of its oil.
The allies it has are not friends of Islam. The US, Israel and Wall Street align with the Kingdom, but the end product of that always is debt overload, exploitation, secularization, drug addiction and transfer of wealth to the wizards of world banking and finance.
The scenario Trump, Bibi and Jared Kushner have scribed will hold for a few months.
There are a plethora of stakeholders in this Middle East-Islam-Oil knot.
The only thing for certain is a scimitar will slice the knot at some point in the near future.
Whether a Turk, Saudi, Qatari, or Apostate wields the sword does not matter.
MBS will be seen at that moment as the cause of the disaster.
Iran, China, Russia and their economic allies will be the benefactors.
The sands of SA are becoming quicksands.
Larchmonter, you note that “[W]hat Pepe sums up describing is an Islamic world led by Muslim Brotherhood aligned with Shiia. That seems improbable.” It may seem improbable only because the western media have propagandized a hideous divide between Shia and Sunni that historically hasn’t existed among civilized Muslim cultures.
Sheikh Imran Hosein notes in one of his lectures that only Muslims are allowed in Mecca on hadj. He then notes that Shiias are allowed to make the hadj as well as Sunnis. His conclusion: that the keepers of the Faith in Mecca consider Shiias to be as much Muslim as are Sunnis.
There was no reporting of Shiia vs. Sunni loathing prior to the expulsion of Reza Pahlavi and America’s resulting crypto-war on Iran (shades of Cuba–Perpetual War for Perpetual Revenge). It serves America’s propaganda interests to create this division, to create the image of another Thirty-Year War.
Sheikh Imran Hosein notes in another lecture that the Eastern Orthodox Church and Islam have had rather good relations for more than a thousand years; crusaders ravaged Byzantine as much as it did the Holy Lands. He suggests that an alliance between Shiia, Sunni and Eastern Orthodox Christianity is quite reasonable to consider. In fact, alliances between Russia, Syria and Iran are already at work. If the Americans ever leave, Iraq might well become a part of that alliance.
Isn’t the Aga Khan the head of the Shia branch of Islam?
Does he have any role to play in the political maneuverings?
Katherine
Macon,
It may seem improbable only because the western media have propagandized a hideous divide between Shia and Sunni that historically hasn’t existed among civilized Muslim cultures.
You are quite correct. 20 years ago nobody in the West knew the difference between Sunni and Shia. To them Islam was monolithic and all and sundry were “Moslems”. The present Sunni-Shia “hideous divide”, if I may borrow your phrase, is manufactured to suit a certain agenda.
Presently the so-called divide between Sunnis and Shias is more about politics than religion. Wahhabi KSA was quite happy to defend the Shia Imamate of Yemen when Gamal Nasser’s Egypt sent troops there to support Yemeni republicans in the 60’s. KSA supported the royalist supporters of (Shia) Imam al-Badr. At that time Nasser, of course, was in competition with KSA’s Saud to become leader of the Arab world.
Most Sunnis, including Wahhabi KSA, accept Shia as being Muslim. The Amman Message, endorsed by the Shaykh of Sunni Islam’s top university, Al-Azhar, and Yusuf Qardawi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s top shaykh and pupil of Hassan al-Banna, plus a couple of hundred Islamic scholars is proof of this acceptance.
http://ammanmessage.com/the-three-points-of-the-amman-message-v-1/
Basil
The fact is that ksa was never the leader of Islam in any way shape or form. This is another example of trying to apply what you know on a culture that doesn’t have an equivalent. Must we really look for the church position of leadership in the Muslim world? Its a big and diverse world with no known clear leader and besides most Muslims (almost all shia and a majority of sunnis) know that saudi’s brand of “Islam” is Wahabism which by the way to the uninformed belives that Muslims Christians jews Buddhist whatever they may be are all equal and eligible to headchopping as long as they aren’t wahabbites whom are the only true believers. sure there might be a priority order there somewhere but shia are at the bottom even behind Christians and jews as in zionism are considered friends.
So yeah insisting that ksa had or has or will have a leadership positon in the Muslim world and speaks for the muslims (or at least the sunnis) is a traversity and an offense to all the Muslims who opposed them from the beginning and are fighting them and have seen their countries destroyed by their hands and the west and they have been bearing their monstrous burden and the brunt of their wrath for the past 80 years.
Unto turkey, I only have one word. Colonialism. Belive or not Muslims see the ottoman empire as colonialism probably because they were treated as fiefdoms and have seen all their possessions lotted through centuries so that the sultan could live on gold and marble and they cycling through ravaging famines every couple of years. Also they were essentially sold to the west piece by piece. After being made into husks of their former selves. For example if one studies the language heritage of North African countries of the Turkish language almost all words in use of origins from Turkish are related to pleading and mercy. I wonder why? And one only has to look to the records to see that at the beginning of the ottamn rule the literacy levels and number of doctors and madrassas(as in universities) dropped sharply to almost nill in the first 50 years. Then after bad management and oppression of the population you get famines sometimes every 2 years. So you can bet that wannabe sultan can blabber on forever that doesn’t mean the rest of the muslims aren’t aware of the dollars signs in his eyes and the sultanic/satanic thirst for blood. Just ask syrians.
Sorry Pepe.
The idea that Turkey will be leader of the Arabic-speaking Middle East is just as ridiculous as claiming that the Persian-speakers will lead it. Totally out of the question sir.
Turkey has massive internal problems. They are trying to push their Kurds out of their traditional lands. The Turks and their proxies were thrashed in Syria. The game is not over yet and I would not be at all surprised if the Syrians reclaim Iskanderun. We shall see.
“The consensus among the AKP leadership – confirmed by independent Left academics – is that the US-Israel-House of Saud-UAE axis is deep in negotiations to extricate MBS from any culpability.
That includes key items in the hefty Erdogan “package” dangled to the axis to essentially buy Ankara’s silence – an end of the Saudi blockade on Qatar and the extradition of Fetullah Gulen, described across the Turkish political spectrum as the leader of FETO (the Fetullah Terrorist Organization).”
Very interesting if this is true !
However, the question is why would the Saudis and whoever is assumed to have participated with them, hand over the Turks such an easy present ?
Are the Saudis so stupid to have actually have carried out such a killing and put themselves in such a position ?
What kind of threat or knowledge did Khashoggi have that needed the Saudis to take such a high risk in killing him in their own embassy in Turkey?
I have no doubt that it is very highly likely that the Saudis (just like the Americans and Israelis) have become so arrogant, stupid and blind, that they are willing to take such risks without thinking…..
….but something also tells me that their is some kind of anti-MBS anti-Trump coalition trying to milk the story as much as they can in the Western Media.
I say let the members of the Empire eat each other alive. Whatever weakens the Empire is good for me !
And if that means that Erdogan wants to be the new Ottoman Sultan while being pals with Russia and Iran…and if that means Erdogan is willing to cooperate in mutual beneficial interests with the regional players, then all the best to him……..Lets get this show on the road people !
Saudi is completely in the pockets of London and Washington who created the artificial country and instructed the royal family to spread wahabism all over the planet to counter communism.
One of Zions plans are to balkanize Saudi and let a major part go into Great Israel.
MSM and the Yemen war are fully controlled by Washington and London, Saudi is only scapegoat, proxy and vassal state.
Again Saudi´s final fate all depends on Russia.
Agree with you Tomsen and Harry.
Fascinating realignment of forces that have ALL behaved badly in the past.
Although Ironically, Russia, recently and in Soviet form appears to have behaved the best!
For millenia Arabians in the Arabian Peninsula were an unlucky lot, confined to a searingly hot sand box no one else wanted, except as a transit point for spices from the east to the west, having to use their left hand.as wipre…and hot sand…..as “toilet paper”.
Then Ibn Saud and his tribe got “lucky” because the Anglos and Americans chose him to control the people above the sands so they could get their hands reliably, long-term….. on the oil discovered barely a century ago…………below the blistering hot sands.
But luck is a double-edged sword….and has a way of not lasting forever.
A century is not very long, except for in an individual’s life.
The Arabs need to green their peninsula with hard work and know-how, and break millenia old habits and make their own luck. That would moderate the harsh climate there.
I had a sudden flash today, reading Trump’s latest statements being very vague about who killed Khassogi.
It was Trump that ordered the assassination. That’s why his statements about it don’t add up and sound like complete nonsense.
Think about it … we know Trump has been at virtual war with the Washington Post since he took office. What better way to send a powerful message from the GawdFather to the Post about who’s really in charge than by knocking off one of their star columnists. Or perhaps it was a touch of Danny DeVito and Throw Momma From the Train in that Trump knew that his buddy MbS wanted Khassogi dead, Who would suspect Trump? Since the killing was in the Saudi consulate, everyone would suspect MbS. So all MbS needed was an fool-proof alibi for the time of the killing. And no one would even think of Trump. (MbS does Homer Simpson palm to the forehead, says “Duhh!, Alibi! I knew there was something I was supposed to get done that day. I knew it was really important. But I staring at my DiVinci and I forgot all about it.)
But Trump seems close to giving the whole game away when these pesky reporters keep asking about it. What he really wants is to turn around and say “Hey, I just got one of you. Who wants to be next.” But he knows he can’t. But he can’t get the thought out of his mind and he knows he’s supposed to use the answer he’s rehearsed but he can’t ever remember those things and he’ll just wing it like he normally does except it doesn’t seem to be working and they keep asking those dang questions. Quick! Migrants at the Border! Shoot to Kill! That will distract them. Yeah, need to send a tweet about it.
(the above is a secret script from SNL that was found in a trash can.)
Terrific commentary, highly informed, but still unavoidably also speculative. How wonderful this would be: “the strong possibility of a dominant, Erdogan-led Turkey all across the lands of Islam, allied with Qatar and also with Iran. Plus all of the above enjoying very close geopolitical and economic relations with Russia. Expect major fireworks ahead.”
Where would China fit into this?
“, but with an Ikhwan framework.”
I don’t understand the use of this term in the context. It is new to me but an online search gives the info that it is the name of the military force first put together by Ibn Saud. What does “Ikhwan framework” mean in the context of Erdogan’s quest to displace the Saud family as the leader of worldwide Islam?
Katherine
Ikhwan just means brothers or brethren in Arabic. That’s what it means in general
But it’s also used to refer to the Muslim Brotherhood organization. The Muslim Brotherhood is called ikhwan AL Muslimeen(Muslim Brotherhood is just the English translation of this), for short people just call them ikhwan. I think in the sentence you mentioned it’s referring to the Muslim Brotherhood.
It will certainly be extremely interesting if Ibrahim Karagul is right.
Even though modern Turkey emerged from the shambles of the Ottoman Empire, the sacrifices of the Turkish people were immense. The Patrick Cockburn article about British military cemeteries in Iraq provides a piece of the puzzle of the horrors that Britain, France, and the USA perpetrated on the people of Middle East. One of Churchill’s principal war aims in WW1 was always to dismember the Ottoman Empire and take the best pieces (and oil wells) for Britain. Gallipolli wasn’t enough.The disastrous campaign in Iraq was another chapter of abject horror perpetrated by British military commanders on their own troops in the course of trying to grab pieces of what became Mandatory Greater Syria, Iraq, Mandatory Palestine, and “Saudi” Arabia (I don’t know what the status was of the gulf emirates at that period of history, or where they came from). Why should the Turks every “forget” their heritage? It sure would be poetic justice if Erdo managed to undo if not the “line drawing” of borders on maps spread out on tables, then some of the political forces created by the USA-Britain-France to carry out the Westerners’ will. How I hope to see Kushner roasted!!!
Whence comes MBZ’s great power? Isn’t he an ally of Turkey? I am confused about this aspect of the situ.
Katherine