by Chris Faure for the Saker Blog
Continuation of “Sitrep : China. Is. Dead. Serious.”
Let’s take a look at what China overcame in our near history.
- The NED and similar organizations’ sponsored “Color Revolutions” in Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang all collapsed. We can also be sure that this escalation that we see now is not really about Taiwan. Taiwan is playing its role, like the dissidents in Hong Kong did.
- The Trump Trade War collapsed and his focus on tariffs is now taking a tremendous toll on the US West Coast Ports.
- The western propaganda war on China is collapsing because of the efforts of blogs like The Saker Blog and many others that took up writing about this.
- The economic war is collapsing. For this, we have to follow Michael Hudson who details the butt-hurt Soros types who cannot make China dance to their tune. China has done massive work so that they do not have monopolies and internal destabilization by ‘too big to fail types’.
- The return of Meng Wanzhou as a figure of national pride, which was a very delicate operation if one follows all of the plane routes during the sensitive exchange. Meng was exchanged for two worthless Canadian spies. There is another theory and this is that Canada tumbled to pay back the US for not including them in AUKUS.
- The idea that the Chinese are not soldiers. They are that now because they have to be. * More about this following.
Let’s see what China gained in our near history
- The pride, persistence, and trust of the citizens.
- Major developments in space, like their own space station (slated to be a launching platform for? For what really? I do not know but the west has declared space a warfighting domain.) Most nations are welcome to come and hook up their own module, but the western world is not. This is a little payback for not allowing Chinese astronauts on the international space station.
- A top US general, Milley, is so fearful of China that he called his counterpart in the late days of the Trump administration and told them that the US will not attack. (General Miley called to deliver a madman message–we have a madman at the helm and he may send nukes your way, so don’t do anything to give him an excuse. The poor general also had to deliver a contradicting message–at the same time, America is not falling apart; everything is hunky-dory and the well-oiled machine is running smoothly. ) (I know this has been taken out of perspective by almost everyone, but I am thankful, no matter that he may be a sniveling idiot. He did the rest of the world a favor).
- China is in the process of destroying the dollar hegemony slowly but surely with Russia already having done its part and divesting from the dollar in their sovereign wealth fund. This deserves an analysis all by itself. Needless to say, China is launching its digital Renminbi, or Digital Currency Electronic Payment, commonly referred to as E-CNY, a central bank digital currency issued by China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. It is the first digital currency to be issued by a major economy. The digital RMB is legal tender and has equivalent value with other forms of CNY, such as bills and coins.
- The fight against a virus called Covid.
- China is now exceeding the US in almost all economic metrics, although they still refer to themselves as the 2nd major economy.
And at this stage, China makes major military flights near Taiwan.
A few statements:
- China has no interest in military action against Taiwan
- Taiwan has no real desire for military action against China (it would be somewhat like swatting a fly for China and will be over in an hour whichever method China chooses).
- Here is Taiwanese Foreign Minister warning that his country is preparing for war with China. He asks Australia for help and Australia’s 60 minutes distributes the war propaganda.
- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/taiwan-preparing-for-war-with-china/100511294.
- Is the US interested in a war against China over Taiwan? We simply do not know.
What do we know?
Taiwan is a smaller copy of the economic miracle of China and there is no question of its economic success and high tech ability. But China mainland purchases over 40% of Taiwan’s production in both high-tech and agricultural products.
By studying Taiwan’s financial reports, MintPress has ascertained that the semi-autonomous island of 23 million people has, in recent years, given out millions of dollars to many of the largest and most influential think tanks in the United States.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/think-tanks-taiwan-cash-funding-push-war-china/276799/
It is then easy to conclude that with this revolving door, the US decided that Taiwan is an easy ingress to their hope for regime change in China itself (stated publicly by Mike Pompeo) and the AUKUS deal started the new range of increased provocations: It looks like any of the old color revolution tactics or initiatives, just now with an added threat.
This one, could end up in a hot war with both Russia and China.
Taiwan will not have a referendum for independence, because independence is not a done deal for the Taiwanese people. The ruling class fears that such a referendum will not be successful. We all know the ‘call to democracy’ and we all know that this is invoked over and over by hegemonic powers to justify their own excesses. Well today, Taiwan’s Tsai is invoking ‘a call to democracy’ via an article in Foreign Affairs Magazine. China is not impressed as she knows as well as you and I, what that really means. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235658.shtml
China’s interest is peace and security in the region, which is now being called Indo-Pacific. Martyanov says this terminology is hegemon speak, and I’m inclined to agree with him. It used to be Asia Pacific. I so hope someone can draw me the borders (even a dash line) where the Indo pacific and the Asia Pacific exists. Wikipedia, instead of being obscurantist as usual, this time gives the plot away.
The term first appeared in academic use in oceanography and geopolitics. Scholarship has shown that the “Indo-Pacific” concept circulated in Weimar Germany, and spread to interwar Japan. German political oceanographers envisioned an “Indo-Pacific” comprising anticolonial India and republican China, as German allies, against “Euro-America”.[2] Since 2010s, the term “Indo-Pacific” has been increasingly used in geopolitical discourse. It also has “symbiotic link” with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad”, an informal grouping of in the region, comprising Australia, Japan, India, and the United States. It has been argued that the concept may lead to a change in popular “mental maps” of how the world is understood in strategic terms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pacific
Martyanov says that the US has clear dominance in submarine capability and he also says that escalation is something that is very hard to predict. Here we see escalation toward war, with the US using probably the only card that they have to play, trying to kick off an ocean-wide domination conflict on the shipping lanes of communications, with probably the only weapon that they have left, submarines to try and consolidate at least something of US economy and influence across the world. Right here the issue of escalation becomes complex. Russia will not stand out of this and what happens when the Zircons start flying? How soon until Japan, Australia and Taiwan are demolished? We will leave this here for professional analysts to opine.
With that as a backdrop, let’s return to China, specifically the general belief that the Chinese are not born soldiers. That is true, yet the difference is that they prefer to solve problems non-kinetically. (Which is 100% fine with me!) But, they have other abilities, one of which is that they do not give up. The Saker has often said that morale is the greatest weapon of a military force. In this case, I would add to that: preparedness. Again Martyanov said that this thinking on the dominance of sea-lanes is not new. Well, China knows that as well, and they have prepared.
Every school child and university student in China now goes through military training. For the school kids, it is part of the initiative by the Chinese leaders to relieve the school kids from absurd requirements for STEM learning and to get them outside to take part in healthy play and strengthen them physically.
Every city has a local militia and they are armed to the teeth and drill and practice continually. This alone is estimated at 1 million feet on the ground (from Chinese sources).
If kinetic action breaks out in their own backyard, they have the numbers and home team advantage.
Following are some comments from our China correspondents. I don’t have the necessary 2 sources plus another for these, but I put them here to give you an idea of the chat.
China is known to be able to set together production lines very quickly. In these comments, this one is comical and says that China is mass producing nuclear warheads like they crank out paper lanterns. The only thing on earth that is faster is the US money machine.
It may be a comical comment, but the underlying issue here is that the average Chinese person has no doubt that China will, and is able to build whatever is necessary, any war materiel of any kind, to withstand kinetic action.
Is this meaningful in discussing this escalation? I would say yes.
More comments:
If you think a war against China (and Russia – we have to call in Russia at this stage) will be a perpetual war, kindly think again. This is not a win or a lose – it is total destruction of the one that fires the first shot or shoots the first missile or positions the first submarine to destabilize sea-lanes.
This represents the average Chinese and their chat and it is not the type of barroom soldier chat. These are ordinary people.
China is a merit nation and very serious. One can expect precision and ruthlessness. You may want to believe that the Chinese are not born warriors or you may want to believe that they cannot innovate. You can believe what you want, but take a look at these comments:
They do not believe in surgical strikes should anyone attack them. They believe in pounding the source of the attack and whatever is around it, into oblivion. They have their own history as a template.
Btw, does this remind you of the Russians, who said that any strike on Russia will not only take out the strike, but also the platform where the strike comes from? The interaction between Russia and China militarily has grown tremendously as well, but again, this is another analysis.
I expect full-on military readiness as the Chinese military has been on a readiness footing for about a year now.
An outstanding question is how unified Asia is around China. Again we come up against Martyanov’s principle of escalation and this is really difficult to predict.
There is the old saying that goes like this: Do not march on Moscow!. We need to add one. Do not militarily threaten Baba Beijing!. It does not matter how for how long, they do not count their own possible dead, but they will stay the course.
Can we hope for level heads in Washington DC? Realism tells us that we have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. China is doing that.
Back in the 60s during the China USSR border disputes the USSR drew up plans to nuke China and destroy it’s nuclear capability and industrial base so they wouldn’t be a threat anymore. They told the US about this plan as a heads-up. The US didn’t want a dominant USSR so they told the Chinese. All of Mao’s generals wanted to go to war with the USSR or nuke them back.
Mao said it would be futile and pointless as the Chinese land would be a wasteland and the most important thing would be continuation of the Chinese nation for which they need livable land. Instead he said the plan will be if the USSR carries out it’s attack, China will mobilize it’s entire remaining military, militia, armed civilians and remaining population and move into USSR territory and start a new China. Also they won’t nuke the USSR but instead launch nukes into South Korea and Japan and take out the American bases as a parting gift.
He told Zhao Enlai to relay this plan to the US and the USSR. The US freaked out and knew Mao was unpredictable but also not to be taken lightly. So they told the USSR if they nuke China then the US will nuke the USSR.
Eventually cooler heads prevailed and nuclear armageddon was prevented.
Don’t underestimate the Chinese.
With all respect Kola, Yugoslav people were colecting pencils and notebooks for Chinese children,students and so on in early 60s so dont get too exited.
Chinese had maybe few nucs ready, they received knowledge from Moskva in 50s..
Ussr could smash them if they wanted, but why would you beat your own child?
+ orders were not to harm Chinese to much..it was Mao-Nixons egotrip.
with all respect Apis c, i got a few words you should ponder.. “Korean war”.
Was the Chinese nation much richer in the 50s?
I think you underestimate them and wanted to “Rah Rah -insert country of choice- Rah Rah” for some reason🤷♂️
Ah good. Back to your usual self and excellent analysis.
For the past 5 years I’ve maintained that if the USA got bogged down in Iran they would be defenceless against China taking Taiwan and Russia whatever they want. Hence the cold, asymmetrical war being waged on it by the Americans and Israelis instead of an Iraq type invasion.
That would leave the USA with the option of “Go nuclear or go home” and sorry Taiwan but nobody in the USA is going to save you. You are on your own.
The surprising thing is that Taiwan has taken over China in the economic sphere. Let’s face it the Chinese people are born “wheelers & dealers”. The commie economic system just wasn’t their cup of tea. Capitalism is and China realised that and made the change 3+ decades ago going back to the Deng era. Politically I don’t see the communist party ever letting go of power that comes from “the barrel of a gun”.
I’m hoping China and Taiwan can work together more and not go shooting each other.
I am struggling with your observation “Taiwan has taken over China in the economic sphere”. Do you mean to say that Taiwan has overtaken China in economic output and growth? If so, then that is patently false. Look up any data on world GDP and economic growth rates. But perhaps you meant something different?
Now as to your observation “The Chinese people are born wheelers & dealers. The commie economic system just wasn’t their cup of tea …. “. I post below some thoughts, which I hope will help people understand what the Chinese system actually is.
To start with, a thing most people just don’t seem to get is that China is neither communist in the Western sense nor capitalist. Communism was a European invention, the brainchild of a German Jew in exile. Capitalism – whether in the original Adam Smith sense of the term or in the contemporary neoliberal sense – is a system that grew up in Europe in response to economic and political conditions within Europe – and later on in the USA, which then took over leadership of capitalism from Europe and moulded capitalism in accordance with economic and political conditions (and needs) of the US.
The Chinese Communist Party was the response of a poor but proud people to a century of European barbarism, oppression, and humiliation. It was first and foremost a national liberation and freedom movement. It arose organically from within the teeming millions of poor Chinese and was not the invention of some academic or professional revolutionary. The reason the Chinese State adopted State control over the means of production was simply to ensure survival of the Chinese state. This decision was pragmatic, not ideological; consequently, “reforms” and “market socialism” were introduced as soon as a certain level of strength and viability had been achieved. Therefore, understand Chinese communism as ‘Pragmatic Chinese Nationalism’.
Capitalism rests on a civilizational and cultural outlook of ‘individualism’. European thinkers, philosophers – actually the entirety of their spiritual, intellectual, political, and moral leaders – have never been able to reconcile ‘individualism’ with ‘collectivism’. Consequently, a lot of the political and philosophical discourse in the West debating individualism vs. collectivism seems plain silly when viewed through Chinese, Asian, and even African eyes. Where western thinkers torture their minds and souls swinging from one extreme to the other – communism to capitalism to communism – the Chinese cheerfully steer a middle course, understanding intuitively that man can neither survive as an atomic individual nor in a ‘forced collective’. Yes, China did go through a short period of ‘forced collectivism’, but that was to correct the vices of a decadent and corrupt individualism that had made china the slaves of all. Once China had consolidated as a viable society, it cheerfully transitioned from a command central economy to a mixed socialist/capitalist economy. The Chinese accomplished – without batting an eyelid – what no one in the West can even grasp, namely, a viable and harmonious mix of collectivism and individualism. The Chinese describe themselves as “Communism with Chinese characteristics”.
I think Chinese, Asian, and African readers will readily grasp the aforesaid, for in their societies they have all seen attempts to harmonize the individual with the collective, the individual with the community, or the individual with the tribe. It is the genius of Western thinkers that they managed to make a mountain out of a molehill! The Chinese are far too clever to indulge in mud flinging contests of “Commie Rats” versus “Wicked capitalists”, leaving that to the professors of western universities and their media anchors.
I presumed to post the above long post in the hope that China can be seen and understood better, in a time when hate, war fever, and plain old idiocy are the order of the day.
Excellent guest! It is the most difficult thing in the world to get the westerner to accept that the system of governance in China is unique, and grew from grassroots. All I could find is to try and explain that if there is a wish to ‘get it’, to first forget all definitions about capitalism, communism or socialism. The Chinese governance system is unique to themselves, it is deeply respectful of their own history and their own historical process, and in the main is coherent with a modern world because it is alive, and vibrant. Just then, at that spot, one becomes a ‘China shill’ (grins).
You did very well here!
And yes, the “Taiwan has taken over China in the economic sphere” is a misread or misunderstanding.
Thank you, amarynth. The difficulty lies not in making the westerner “accept” … but rather in making him “understand”.
Look, the westerner is only about a thousand years away from barbarism and savagery, while the Asian is at least two thousand years ahead in the evolutionary process. The west had its great moment – about four centuries – and they were truly great for all mankind, despite colonialism, war, and slavery. We all see that, and admire the great progress in science, knowledge, and other human affairs. But that moment has passed. Now all that remains is the west’s big guns and the willingness to use them.
There is something interconnecting the various phenomena of our times: China’s rapid ascent, Russia’s rise from the ashes, the collapse of apartheid in Africa, the rise of the BLM in America, the rise of Islamic nationalisms, etc. The common theme in all of these seems to be this: The age of using big guns to maintain superiority is coming to an end.
The wise will sense the winds of change; the fools will keep trying to blow against the wind.
See this article which argues against your view that China is capitalist:
‘Why China is not a capitalist country – China’s theory is in line with Marx (but not Stalin)’ – John Ross
https://www.socialistaction.net/2017/09/14/why-china-is-not-a-capitalist-country-chinas-theory-is-in-line-with-marx-but-not-stalin/
What I meant was that the economic system of Taiwan since the mainlanders got there has been capitalist. After several decades of failures China adopted the Taiwan economic model to great success. Sorry for my poor wording. Thank you for your response. A lot to think about.
“Capitalism rests on a civilizational and cultural outlook of ‘individualism’”.
We disagree on that one. I think that a collectivist environment is usually forced on people. Protect & provide for one’s self, family and tribe are always in that order naturally but collectivist mentality is tribe first and unnatural IMHO.
Humans have hunted together forever because it was more successful for everyone. That isn’t collectivist that just a team of individuals working together to increase their own success. In some cases the natives divide the hunt by the number of arrows in the carcass. You got 3 and I got 2 so you get 3/5th of the game.
I don’t see China as a middle course. They are hard core capitalists economically to the point that the robber barons of the late 1800’s would blush. Politically they are authoritarian. That is very common in the world and I’d give the Chinese a “B” for how they’ve developed.
“After several decades of failures China adopted the Taiwan economic model to great success”
The Chinese learned their lessons from Singapore not Taiwan. Taiwan was a recently defeated foe and represented the very opposite of what they aspired to be.
Since Deng’s visit to Singapore in 1979, PRC have been sending hundreds mayors, bureaucrats etc to Singapore. In Singapore, they found an essentially single party state that was able to mix capitalist free market systems with a paternalistic socialist bent. Singapore had the same emphasis on infrastructure, government owned/linked companies, central bank control and strict social controls.
“They are hard core capitalists economically to the point that the robber barons of the late 1800’s would blush”
How would the recent events of crackdown on overly powerful tech tycoons fit into the image of “hard core capitalists”.
Also the virtual elimination of the private tuition/cram school sector?
Clearly China sees capitalism as a means to an ends, and not the goal in itself. For them, the ultimate aim is the creation of a better society, whatever that means to them.
“I’d give the Chinese a “B” for how they’ve developed.”
Give them another 30 years. China will be made up of a thousand Singapores.
Thanks Chris Faure for this excellent article.
Now to you “guest” I could not agree more with your comment.
Two things stand out, in what you write, that are foundational in the Chinese animistic worldview and in their civilization :
1. “… understand Chinese communism as ‘Pragmatic Chinese Nationalism’. ”
Absolutely.
The important thing is that the cat catches mouse as Deng was fond of saying.
Pragmatism was the root of animism and the Chinese civilization inherited both at the end of a long process of cultural unification that had started far down in their past tribal society. But the word “nationalism”, in your formula, is a Western concept that does not fit in this context of cultural unification that, got eventually called “Tianxia”, by Chinese scholars in the early Zhou era (approx. 3,000 years ago), which means : one people, one territory, and one sovereign. So what we Westerners understand as Chinese nationalism is in reality the Chinese understanding of being one people living within the same territory, and sharing a common worldview, while being governed by a sage sovereign…
About the difficulty for Westerners to adjust to the Chinese understanding of life see this excellent 3h30 interview in French of Chinese ambassador LU Shaye.
2. “… the Chinese cheerfully steer a middle course, understanding intuitively that man can neither survive as an atomic individual nor in a ‘forced collective’ “.
Absolutely.
The Chinese vision of the world is rooted in “the One and Whole Reality” which they call Taiji.
And they understand that Taiji was put in motion by its complementary polarities: Yin and Yang. In this understanding all entities, in the universe, are viewed as animated by their complementary polarities. This is the core axiom of the Chinese civilization and it contrasts starkly with the Western core axiom which is dualism (me me me, good, versus the “other” who is different and thus evil).
This axiom of complementary particles explains how the Chinese people understand life. (See my description). In short :
2.1. Life emerges in the form of species
2.2. Species strive to survive and to reproduce over the long haul
2.3. Species ensure their continuity (life) through the interactions between their complementary polarities : the individuals and their society.
2.4. The interactions between their complementary polarities are fraught with conflicts
2.5. Societies act as arbiters of conflicts between: — the weak force : the voice of the majority of the citizens who represent the voice of their society — the strong force : the voice of the minority of individuals who are driven by change.
2.6. The conflicts between these two forces, that get resolved, solidify cultural memes that eventually synchronize in the continuum of the cultural field of their society which ensures the adaptation of their societal worldview to the new realities of the present.
2.7. This memetic replication sets in motion societal evolution.
Viewed in that sense the cultural continuum within societies is an analogy of the genetic code of the individuals. Biological evolution is imprinted in the genetic code of the individuals after a genetic mutation replicates over time. In the same vein societal evolution is imprinted in the cultural continuum of a society after a cultural mutation (meme) replicates over time.
Sorry this is the working link to “See my description”
Thank you, laodan, for your wonderful further explanation and for vocalizing precisely (and better) what I was trying to say about Chinese nationalism and the Chinese worldview. To some extent the Chinese worldview and outlook on life existed in all Asian societies, but in china it remained consistent and evolved, and evolved, and is still evolving, and their lies the secret of China’s “Communism with Chinese characteristics” and its miraculous social and economic development.
You are also so right about dualism: Western thought is dualistic, and from its dualism arise the West’s perpetual wars. This dualism has now become almost childish in the case of America where people can only think in simple terms borrowed from comic books: good guys versus bad guys. This childish thinking and their temper tantrums would have been funny but for the fact that they are armed with the deadliest nuclear weapons and will not hesitate to use them on those they see as “bad guys”.
Personally I find these ideological categories rather meaningless in the current milieu.
It is about business/commerce. The difference between the US (West) and China (and to some extent, Russia) is simply that in the US/West there is little or no government of the people by the people, nor ‘commonwealth’ values. What exists today is a criminal class running a fascist (not a cigartette paper’s thickness between business (guilds) and govenment systems) with political representitives simply a collection of self-serving opportunists selling their services to the highest bidder. The “Best Money Can Buy!” covers it. On the other side (China and Russia), and the source of the friction, are governments representing the national/people’s interests without undue ‘business-class’ back-door plutocratic influence. So, take all the BS away and it is corporate plantationism (for the 1%) vs a non-corporatist political economy/culture attuned to indigenous/nation interests rather than global transcorporate (& tribal) interests.
… and diversity vs solidarity with an apparent and obvious victor!
Thank you for writing that. For me there are two key words that are useful in making sense of China’s policies: harmony and chaos. By contrast, western discourse is bound to the concept of the political economy which excludes many of the factors that go toward making a cohesive society.
China has several cities with a larger economy than the entire Taiwan, that is sliding since C19!
I only have a few points to add. Firstly, two other Generals from the JCS have publicly stated that neither want war with China or Russia; and when those views are combined with what’s known about the atrocious state of readiness of Outlaw US Empire military forces and their morale, there’s no stomach for such a war. Secondly, as I’ve often written, the Outlaw US Empire is geoeconomically dependent on China–disrupting China’s commerce also disrupts the Empire’s commerce and that of the greater world, a policy only idiotic nations will follow; and when it comes to genuine GDP rankings, China is now #1 as it has very few Neoliberal or other negatives. And third, the domestic turmoil within the Outlaw US Empire will not allow for the launching of any more wars, while troops already deployed will soon be removed from their illegal occupations; plus, the debt and Biden’s BBB policy battles don’t allow for any further spending on military adventures.
As I wrote in an earlier comment, China’s previous victory against US troops, its Trade War victory, and its victory over the Corona virus, gives China vast confidence against the Outlaw US Empire while its deep weaknesses continue to be displayed. Collectively in the ASEAN/China region, I expect all to stand together for peace. Although not seen as a military power, Indonesia has 270 million people–4th in the world–and could easily subjugate Australia’s 26 million, a consideration few Aussies seem to have noted. Japan has 126 millions, but very few would agree to be cannon fodder for the Outlaw US Empire in a war against China & Russia as Japanese don’t need to be taught that lesson twice. So, my assessment that if there’s to be conflict with China it will be an all Anglo affair, although those nations have nothing to win and everything to lose.
Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and war can be avoided but that may be a big ‘if’ taking into account the nutcases running DC. If China is attacked by the US they may retaliate by attacking US bases outside of the region where US power is spread thin. Need to send my Geiger counter if for calibration.
Excellent article, a great follow up to the previous one!
What is ASEAN’s attitude on all these events? (AUKUS, Taiwan etc)
Is ASEAN hostile to China, sort of like the EU is hostile to Russia?
Strong reaction against AUKUS.
https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/aukus-sub-deal-puts-asean-on-nuclear-edge/
The ASEAN nations have real antipathy toward their neighborhood being abused by the US.
They have been working for several years to settle a deal on the SCS with China.
They are intimately involved economically with China, and with Chinese bloodlines for centuries in Indonesia and Malaysia and Vietnam and Philippines.
Though the power and size of China is daunting, the ASEAN environment is about peaceful relations.
Inserting nuclear subs with nuclear cruise missiles is a horror for them.
They will be working against the added danger, likely getting closer to Russia who ports and bases in Singapore and Vietnam. They will be welcoming more Russian presence in their zone.
Caught as it is between two great powers, or as a local saying goes, ‘like a cucumber caught between two durians (stinky fruit with spiky shell)’, Asean plays a hedging game. China is key to its prosperity but at the same time it’s also worried that PRC will grow too strong and become a bullying hegemon; so it welcomes some balance in the area. On the other hand, the party providing the balance, the US, is a confirmed bully, not averse to interfering in their internal affairs, and so not universally liked. Tough situation for Asean, but so far so good.
Above all else Asean doesn’t want to be made to choose between the US and PRC. The PM of Singapore — a country that plays the hedging game with admirable dexterity, providing facilities for both US/West and RF/PRC warships — recently articulated the position in a speech (IIRC) at a jamboree in Singapore called the Shangri-La Dialogue (organised by UK’s IISS), Asean’s equivalent of Davos or Valdai Club. How long they can maintain this ‘non-aligned’ stance remains to be seen. It’s getting more difficult to do so and that day when they have to decide one way or the other may not be too far into the future.
Australian defence strategy relating to the Asean region is to stay one step ahead, technology wise; and this is something that seems to be accepted by Asean. Australia operates F-35s, Growlers and Wedgetail aircraft, for instance, with not a peep from Indonesia (Asean’s de-facto leader, and Australia’s nearest major neighbour with whom it’s had some testy relations in the past) or other Asean members. Australia’s proposed procurement of the large — and long-legged — conventional Barracudas also did not ruffle any Indonesian or Asean feathers.
Indonesia’s (and Malaysia’s) beef with the AUKUS subs is not the fact that Aus is acquiring nuclear subs per se but the fact that nuclear subs will inevitably bring greater PRC military activity to the region, something that is not welcome by Asean states, particularly those on the SCS littoral. The corollary being, of course, that more military hardware will be parked on their doorstep and with that an increased risk of a conflagaration. Asean is desperate for that not to happen.
Also, there are certain nuances in their attitudes towards PRC and US. Some are firmly in the PRC camp (Kampuchea); others — traditionally anti-communist and thus western oriented — are in the middle and trying to ‘build confidence’ (Thailand, Malaysia; with both recently procuring PRC military equipment and exercising with Chinese military); others still either keeping quiet, or flip-flopping between the two powers (Philippines).
As far as Indonesia and Malaysia are concerned, Australia has just screwed up the status quo — and displayed insensitivity to their interests — by agreeing to AUKUS. Australia has made its choice but Asean, who had no say in the choice, have to share the consequences and have been dragged deeper into a potential great power conflict situation just as it is trying to get PRC to agree to a mechanism that will reduce tensions between it (and Australia) and PRC in the SCS. AUKUS may just make that day when Asean is forced to decide between the two great powers come even nearer; and based on AUKUS’s Anglo membership and old prejudices within the region, I won’t be surprised if it just pushes certain Asean states to ultimately vote for PRC.
Cheers.
There is no Russian port or base in Singapore. Russian ships are welcome to visit whenever they are in the region but they do not have any established or fixed presence in Singapore via treaty or any other arrangement.
By contrast, there is an important US naval resupply and logistics facility located in Singapore. Singapore is very closely linked to the US and its military and the leasing agreement for the above has been extended to 2035. Almost all of the Singapore Air Force fighter planes (F15 and F16) are from the US and all the pilots train in the US and conduct exercises (mainly with the USAAF and USN) on a regular basis. There is no similar arrangement with Russia.
Singapore does present the appearance of an independent foreign policy but make no mistake – in terms of defence and national security it’s closely allied to the US.
OTOH, you are very much correct about Asean and its relationship to China. Asean’s trade relations with China are huge and none of the member states are in the slightest bit interested in seeing the region destabilised by the anti China naval strategies of a bunch of fading Anglo Saxon nations. Your comments re Indonesia and Malaysia’s response to AUKUS are also spot on.
There may be more nuance to Singapore’s relationship with the US. Historically Singapore hosted US military facilities as a safeguard against hostilities by Singapore’s (relatively) giant neighbours.
Although there are strong military equipment procurement and training links with the US, there is no guarantee that Singapore will take the US side against China. In fact there is indication of the opposite, with the recent remarks by the Prime Minister advising the US something to the effect of “not to make Asean states choose sides, or they may not like the answer”
Singapore knows that when a single superpower dominates the region, it will only bully the little states in Asean. While the US has shown itself to only too willing to use force to get its way, a dominant China may not be any better. For now it is useful not to have any one hegemonic power holding sway.
But Singapore can see the writing on the wall. If forced to choose, it will choose China.
“As far as Indonesia and Malaysia are concerned, Australia has just screwed up the status quo — and displayed insensitivity to their interests — by agreeing to AUKUS.”
I would argue that Australia has displayed appalling insnesitivity to its own interests – but given the track record of the past decade, why stop now?
Nothing about this new AUKUS “alliance” and the purchase of a handful of nuclear submarines has been democratic in the slightest – it was all schemed up in secret and dumped on everyone, Australians included, as a big surprise.
This newly imposed strategic anchor around the neck of Australian sovereignty is, unfortunately, entirely consistent with the behaviour of the current crop of totalitarian psycopaths infesting virtually the entirety of the Australian political class. Just look at the God-bothering Pentecostal Hill-Song groupie PM Morrison (aka “the smirk”), for God’s sake – this clown is actually looking forward to the Rapture, with the full expectation that he will be amongst the Chosen to be wafted up to Heaven on a cloud of Angels, and apparently for him, the ends justifies the means. In this treasonous worm’s idiotic two-faced ideology, Australia is expendable! Meanwhile, his chief “pandemic” policy advisor – one Jane Halton – is literally on the payroll of a eugenic Satan-worshipping billionaire, namely creepy Bill Gates!
Given the current wave of state-level dictatorships spreading progressively across the Australian continent, all implicitly endorsed by God-botherer Morrison at his secret “national cabinet” meetings with the state Premiers, I can’t help thinking that an all-out Chinese takeover of the joint would be a blessing in diguise. Certainly whatever China might bring to the table would be far preferable to Klaus Schwab’s arrogant pronouncement that “you will all own nothing, and have no privacy, and you will be happy!” – especially knowing that the Australian state governments are already busily constructing “detention facilites” in remote localities across the nation.
My father fought the chinese in korea, and although he wouldnt talk about the war, he thought they were terrifying enemies.
My father was told the Yellow Man was more monkey than human. That he had the physique of a child and the intelligence, maybe, of a smart dog. The Yellow Man could not fight, and would not fight. At the mere sight of the Australian soldier the Yellow Man would know he was beaten, and lay down his weapon. The Yellow Man was not to be feared, but treated with derision.
Between February 10 and February 15, 1942, my father learned everything he’d been told about the inferior Yellow Man was wrong.
The Japanese were trained, competent, courageous soldiers.
They were not afraid of combat. Rather than tremble and fear the Australians on sight, the Japanese seemed to see the Australians as weak and easily subdued.
My father saw firsthand the lack of planning, the disarray, confusion and unconscionable decisions made from ego and grandiosity of rank.
My father saw friends and fellows killed, and as a Prisoner of War working on the Burma railway, saw many hundreds die beside him, of starvation and disease.
A generation earlier, my grandfather had been told the Hun would be easily dispatched. He learned, cold and hungry, in the trenches of western France, the Germans were a formidable force.
And here we are.
2021.
And once again we are being told the Yellow Man, this time the “ChiComs”, cannot fight, ….. once again the war propaganda and dehumanising of “the other” is given full throated cries.
Dammit.
What is wrong with us, that we can never learn?
That each generation falls prey to the very same crude indoctrination?
My father’s deepest wish for me was that I would never see war.
Whether in battle, or in the deprivation of the “home front”.
So far I have enjoyed the luck of “lucky” Australia.
And I very much want the next generation – and the next – to also enjoy prosperity and peace.
Cordial trading and cultural exchanges with China over the last 30years have been of huge benefit to Australia.
Why position ourselves as a belligerent? No good will come from this.
Can we please as humanity call a stop to this slow avalanche to global conflict ?
War is God’s way of teaching humans (mostly men) that others are not their inferiors.
It’s harsh, but many will not learn any easier way.
Dear White Whale,
My uncle Percy also fought in New Guinea, and was fed the same propaganda. But as Uncle Percy told me the first Japanese troops he ran into were ‘The Emperor’s Guard and none of them were under 6’.
And if you read history, you may note that the English used similar propaganda about the French over two hundred years ago.
What is also interesting is the changing attitude of the Chinese over the past decade, from humble to straight out self assurance, which I believe to be totally different from Mao’s 60’s belief that in any nuclear war, the majority of survivors would be the Chinese.
There are many interesting events evolving around the Euro-Asian continent. Obviously something really big is coming down. I do not exactly know how those “Pandora Papers” fit into all this, but I think it is definately in the fold. Funny thing about the revelations in those papers; that most, if not all, the accused in the papers have to do with U.S.A. enemies, and nothing about any leader or celeb’ Stateside. (I personnally chuckle at the juisy stuff having to do with Putin. It is as if no other powerfull world leader ever had a little extra something on the side.) Amazing how Trump avoided being in the papers. At any rate, the papers sound very much like some CIA black ops plot to me.
Agree but not sure if even qualify as black ops – just some boot licking Guardian types trying to trawl through old stuff for something on Putin
Humble suggestion: Change that horrid bastard concept to Pindo-Pacific.
As regards the contention that the Chinese are ”not born soldiers”, it’s a Western slur with a funny new dimension to it in view of gender confusion being elevated to a full-fledged, obscene cult but definitely not so in China. The slur’s tacit original connotation was ”born to be cowed by invincible Western übermenschen”. Like what happened to the entire population on Diego Garcia in 1966/67, brutally evicted because the US wanted a military base there which it got by its dependable British partners in crime.
The Anglo-Americans had better not attempt any similar ”business” at China’s or Russia’s expense, but of course it’s awfully hard for them to resist the temptation. The Crimeans saw the writing on the wall and took action. The rest is history.
The US would likely lose a hot war in the Pacific and Indian oceans. In World War 2, the US defeated Japan largely by vastly outproducing the island nation. If the US fights China, China would be vastly outproducing the US. I see no way for the US to win. Even if the war went nuclear, that would simply mean that both countries would lose.
US Americans brag that their navy is far more powerful than China’s. That is true — and also quite irrelevant. China has more missiles; these will decimate the US navy in the first few hours of a war. Some US ships may survive the first salvo of missiles, and maybe even the second. But how about the tenth? The 50th salvo? China’s vast manufacturing capability would replace the missiles faster than they would be expended. How could the US navy possibly survive an endless rain of death?
Having already lost the manufacturing battle, the US would lose the war.
there is simply no viable reply that works for washington to your analysis. they off shored away the store in the 1980’s- early 2000’s and now its too late to get it back which is why kinetic war is highly unlikely as long as knowledgeable military professionals are listened to by the executive branch.
Every U.S. military officer, if not every military person in the world, has read Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu says if you are out numbered five to one; better run. The politicians probably do not know any better, but I am sure the generals do….
I have mentioned in the China In The Crosshairs post that the vast majority of anti-Chinese warmongers are nothing but keyboard commandoes that have never served a day in their lives. I’m still waitng for them to go to their nearest recruiting station to enlist but of course they’re not going to do that. Too cowardly to sign the dotted line and most would be too fat, too mentally deficient or have a criminal record to qualify anyway.
If the Pentagon can actually take the results of their China Taiwan wargames seriously and Gen Milley personally calling his PLA counterparts that shows that at least the woke top brass still have some brain cells left. All the good quality, combat experienced non woke NCOs and officers have either EAS early or been forced out, leaving behind all the woke spit-shine bootlickers to brainwash the current breed of “warriors”.
The US Navy has been a joke to me since 2016. From their Riverine unit getting captured by Iran to the ships that crashed into each other or civilian ships in the SCS. Their ships have been overpriced floating trash too with so many issues, I can’t take them seriously when they brag about the “superior quality” of their ships.
Dear Cyril,
Back in 1964 when the USS Enterprise visited Melbourne and my two older sisters went out with a couple of the sailors, it was believed that the life expectancy of the Enterprise was about 5 minutes as it was such a large target. In 1964, the USS Enterprise’s life expectancy in combat was about 5 minutes; no bloody wonder they scrapped it last year.
And again in WWII, the US Sherman tanks only beat the German Panzers due to the numerical superiority of the Sherman, not its fighting ability.
And for some strange reason, I would think that the Chinese military’s competence would have improved somewhat since the Korean War, but I would wonder if the US military had made similar adjustments.
As for the manufacturing battle, my favourite teacher, Mr. Jones, pointed that out in 1958 as the reason why the North beat the South in the American Civil war; and yet Kissinger suggested to Nixon that America give China its ‘manufacturing ability’ as a means to separate Chine and Russia.
That’s when the US lost its war with China, right back then and the US will never be able to retrieve that error.
I think the US want to put as much pressure as it can on China. Are they ready to push as far as triggering war? I don’t know.
The reality is that the US has 2 main nemesis Russia and China plus a smaller nemesis Iran.
Should the jcpoa negociations collapse the Iranian front will be immediately reactivated like it was between 2018 and January 2020 because of Israel and the neocons. So I would not underestimate this third front.
Back to the other 2 fronts.
The elites in power in the US are realising that they are losing global hegemony and their hopes for another “American century”. They are becoming more and more reckless because they know they need to do something before it’s too late. I think they will escalate with both Russia and China to break their partnership. They will likely target both but not necessarily with the same magnitude.
China is the only country which can challenge the US economy and the US knows that. On the other hand US and Chinese economies are still very interconnected. I don’t see how the US could attack China using Taiwan or the main shipping lines in the indo-pacific region without hurting itself and the whole world a lot. It would be a war in the a strait of hormuz but at a much greater scale.
Russia is the only country which can challenge the US militarily. But in terms of economy they can hit Russia without having severe consequences for the US economy. Plus my personal guess is that the neocons which come from the cold war era hate Russia more than they hate China. The US needs China more than it needs Russia and between Russia and China I believe they see Russia as the weaker actor. Finally they created a desperate and completely expendable country they can use as a proxy to trigger instability around Russia: ukraine.
I think the US will escalate in both the China sea and in the black sea using its usual lapdogs like Japan and the UK. But I think they will put more pressure on Russia than on China because they think they can hit Russia s economy without too many consequences for the US economy, they absolutely hate the country and they see Russia as an easier prey. They will likely put any kind of sanctions targeting Russian officials Russian sovereign debt and industrial sectors and so on. Then after NS2 will become fully operational ukraine will become a complete liability for the US and the maniacs in Kiev will rich unprecedented levels of insanity. Instability will likely skyrocket and at that point an ukrainian military offensive in the donbass will become more likely. Should this offensive trigger a Russian military intervention the US will most likely use its last card before a full scale war: disconnecting Russia from swift. This move would affect both Russia and Europe especially for its gas and oil markets. But we saw how much the US cares about its so called “European allies” with the French submarines deal with Australia. Plus the EU seems willing to escalate with Russia (EU representatives are now openly calling for a regime change in Russia).
I think the US logic is something like this: if we put Russia on its knees we will break the Russia and China strategic partnership and without Russia, China will be all alone against us and at that point China will have no other choice than to listen to us (stop challenging the dollar stop the one road one belt initiative and so on).
If we think that the western elites will escalate to keep their hegemony this is the most likely scenario for 2 reasons. First the US knows that diplomatically it cannot obtain much from Russia which means that making Russia turn west again with diplomacy is completely unrealistic. The US and the EU destroyed their relations with Russia with the coup in ukraine in 2014 and all the sanctions which followed. They can not undo all of that. They obtained nothing with this strategy yet so they will put more pressure which means escalation. Doubling down on stupid ideas is what they do best. Second in their minds if they succeed in putting Russia to its knees they would force China to comply without hitting China directly and thus without hurting their own economies too much.
To sum it up Taiwan is of course an extremely hot spot but I am more concerned about what could happen in Europe especially in ukraine in the coming months. I am also concerned about what could happen with Iran if the jcpoa collapses.
The best possible scenario would be the one in which the western elites understand that today they can not rule the world like they used to and they would chose to switch for a more reasonable foreign policy. But unfortunately judging by the last developments during the last 5 years I think this scenario is unlikely.
What options does the US have?
Having escalated the conflict to this level can they back down without losing credibility? No, it won’t and it doesn’t have to.
The conclusion must be that The US has carefully chosen its actions to keep China on edge and unsure about the situation. It costs the US little but is a drain on China resources.The US can ratchet the situation up or down as it suits them. Keeping the Chinese on permanent alert is of advantage to the US.
I think you are way off mark.
If you think that maintaining three aircraft carrier battle groups with associated ships of all kinds, a corps in SC and an army in Japan, Guam and Hawaii all in full battle readiness, with all their satrapies in tow, gobbling up energy and resources, producing an ozone hole above Pacific and spewing CO2 into the atmosphere, is going to drain China of its resources – you are wrong. With the economy of US, UK and Australia at the breaking point, and China/Russia outperforming them dramatically, it is the AZ empire which will (or already is) collapse(ing).
Perhaps their only option is to close their eyes and minds and shout “banzai”.
True on the surface but you don’t understand the USA very well. The reason for US belligerence around the world is only partly about world-domination (the official Washington ideology) it is, mainly, about money for the military contractors and the continuing power of Washington itself. Continual war and crises keeps the martinets in power and that is always their focus. The problem, of course, is that things could spiral out of control but considering the amounts of money involved even that could be a good thing for the oligarchs who run the US. As for the “citizens” (subjects) of the State they will believe anything no matter how absurd so will always fully support endless money being spent on the military.
No one really wants war in Washington only threats of war.
Boy! These people from that city on the shining hill (really a dung hill), really love war. Just as long as someone else fights it for them. And they speak as if China would gasp and run for the hills if a war breaks out. All I say is, just read about the Korean War, which happened approximately 71 years ago. The US did fight Chinese soldiers in that war. Did the Chinese put up a good fight? They sure did, pushing the US back to the 38th parallel. And they were not as sophisticated in equipment and tactics as they are today. So to those who want a war with China, just armor up, run to the front lines and fight them yourselves. We’ll give you a nice send off and make sure that your remains will be properly buried.
@Jose Garcia
Dunghill indeed! But let’s be very clear here about one pesky little detail pertaining to their love of war: They are only prepared to sacrifice the planet as long as their own 100% worthless lives are guaranteed to be spared in the process. Theif self-love, not their masturbatory fantasizing about omnicide, torture, and slaughter takes full precedence. In hindsight, one could say that they wasted away the one and only golden opportunity they had making these ”dreams” come true: their four years of absolutely unconstrained nuclear supremacy 1945-1949. Sadly, in the early 1950s, when one of these drooling crackpots, to wit Douglas MacArthur, wanted real badly to turn Korea and China into uninhabitable nuclear wasteland he was unceremoniously ditched. Even a solid, hard-core, gung-ho, effing US reactionary such as Harry Truman understood the significance of the USSR having broken their monopoly on nukes. Today’s US neocons are like vile, smelly drunkards on a park bench ”keeping the spirits up” while passing around the bottle.
Some still remain bitter about not finishing off the Soviets in 1945-1950s, which is among the reasons of their continuing hatred against all things Russian.
They had many plans, such as Operation Unthinkable, Operation Dropshot, etc.
However, they were held back at the time because of a shortage of nukes and too many Soviet divisions existed and were forward deployed into Europe.
Soviets had no illusions whatsoever about West in 1945.
One wonders, if Mao (per Kola comment above) was reminded of this survival tactic from Soviet experience, ie. essentially “closely embrace” the enemy deep inside his own territory?
Only 2 countries speak of and conduct war constantly and incessantly since inception: USA and Israel. Think about it.
And one of those is the others puppet. The one with more dual citizens making its laws.
how is the current colour revolution in Myanmar progressing?
we hear very little about it in the MSM but it’s obviously an ongoing destabilization project by the West,
kinda like we never get told by the MSM what’s happening in Libya,
Myanmar seems to being given the full Syria treatment at the moment,
on Google Maps I noticed Myanmar has ‘Burma’ in brackets underneath it, I don’t remember seeing that before, it’s the only nation that Google gives a bracketed optional name to.
张计发 Zhang Jifa survived the Japanese invasion as a kid under harsh conditions, grew up to eventually join the 8th Route Army to fight against them. He later officially joined the CPC and the PVA in Korea, fighting in the Battle Of Shangganling (Triangle Hill to westerners). He was wounded 8 times, awarded 6 times and despite developing liver cancer in 1960 because of poor battlefield nutrition he lived to 95 years old, passing away this past 15th of June.
https://inf.news/en/military/af4d908bbe18e25c54c246b785c492ae.html
Though the English may not be perfect, it is the best English language short biography I found on him. He was an excellent example of a Chinese born warrior and leader that not only fought and survived against 2 foreign invaders, he also survived disease and lived a very long life. Bad-asses like him make me proud to be Chinese. May he RIP.
“ Taiwan will not have a referendum for independence, because independence is not a done deal for the Taiwanese people. The ruling class fears that such a referendum will not be successful.”
Yes and No.
Taiwan will not have a referendum for independence. but not because is not a done deal.
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960
According to Poll number from election center of NCCU (National Chengchi University of Taiwan, which is one of the top universities in politics inTaiwan. A lot of political leaders/politicians/activists graduated from, or teach here)
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960
(You don’t need translation to understand this figure)
2.7% Taiwan people believe they are Chinese
63.3% Taiwan people believe they are Taiwanese
And as a Taiwanese myself, I can guarantee you, even the numbers may not be 100% accurate, (less than10% for Chinese, 50-60% Taiwanese IMO), the trend are EXACTLY 100% accurate.
The reason they wouldn’t have referendum for independence is simple.
1. Good guy/Daddy USA do not support Taiwan independence.
2. Bad guy/Evil monster communist CCP will use force.
Remove those two reasons, you will almost immediately have referendums, And those pro-independence people WILL WIN.
This is just fact. No matter you like or not.
There’s a lot of generalization in what follows but bear with me…
So obviously Taiwanese thinks they are superior. I’ve got news for you, when things go noisy it doesn’t matter what flag you put on your shirt. If you have black hair and yellow skin you’re not going to have a good day out.
The only civilization that will IMPLICITLY accept and protect Chinese will be China.
You can not like the current Chinese administration, but rejecting ones root is total weak sauce and just like the losers in the hk color revolution (that’s substantially funded and supplied by Taiwan) , it’ll just be a footnote of history, may be not even that.
Also once TSMC builds its new US plants Taiwan will be expendable. I hope you thought long and hard about that one. Taiwan is just a pawn.
On the superiority complex, Taiwanese aren’t superior, a contractor to the west, stockholmed slave to japan. Its cities looks like its frozen in the 80s. Its birth rate also rivals Japan and wages is stagnant. Yet it looks down to China like they are the 1%ers.
And they WERE. The exiles that populated Taiwan with the KMT retreat were basically 1%ers.
Taiwan’s industrial miracle wasn’t a miracle, its just cheap labour meets returning scholars and engineers. Same deal as with Korea, same with Japan, only the start date were different.
China is on the same path since Den’s reopening. China started late, but its magnitudes bigger, faster and no amount to sanctions will roll this back. And the jaded Taiwanese secessionists hates that.
In the long run Taiwan is of no consequence. Its perceived technical leadership in every field will be caught up and surpassed. Except may be pineapple production. lol.
All China needs is time, it will even be willing to cop a bitch slap or two just to trade for time. The pressure and irritations from the Anglos will increase and will get more ridiculous as they NEED China to take the first shot to retain the “moral” high ground. China will not take the bait but a false flag cannot be ruled out.
While militarily China WILL lose if the fight is on blue waters there is no version in this multiverse that China will lose if the fight is around the 1st island chain. And the anglos are a long, long way from home….
All these exercises and FONOP is like an deranged exhibitionist who keeps coming across town to my street and beats his monkey on my front porch. Because FREEDOM!
A lot of the things you point out are true, and IMO, reality. Like the birth rate.
The reality are bad for Taiwan leader and people (including birthrate you mention,Taiwan can not defense itself from China, and USA is paper tiger in the military sense, and has no real diplomacy, etc.)
All I am saying is, Taiwan leaders and people, DO NOT connect to this reality, and they create the reality of their own. (for what ever reasons)
And this is very dangerous. And few Taiwan people agree with this, they just have no clue (for what ever reason.)
And About Taiwan will be expendable, IMO, Taiwan IS expendable (for USA, of course), right now. But it is just one man’s opinioin.
Terry,
I agree with what you pointed out as the street sentiment of Taiwan. No arguments there.
Also thank you for responding to my message the way you did. I read my own post after some sleep and realized i used a lot of “you” but i wasn’t pointing at you, i was referring to delusional Taiwanese secessionists in general. Thank you for that.
Cheers.
A.L
Thank you for your responses and kindness.
And for most writers/commentators (including you, of of course) here, I RESPECT them a lot, even I do disagree with their views from times to times. And I keep learning more than I can imagine from this blog, and their writing.
I am nobody, just normal people.
And It really help a lot, to find out there are some great places/reasonable people in this crazy world.
BTW for demographic issue.
Just look some report.
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison
(Fertility rate No.227, the last one)
And According to Taiwan government’s own number.
2020 birth number: 165,249
Death number: 173,156
https://www.cna.com.tw/project/20210114-birth-rate/
So, as I said it’s just reality. And maybe worse than you described.
Cheers
Sua análise é no geral correta com uma pequena discordância que faço em relação a china perder se a batalha for em águas azuis. Isso pode ser também uma grande desvantagem para os ianques. A china é um país continental e não uma líbia ou Iraque onde se pode manter uma força tarefa nas cercanias para bombardear em segurança um país que não pode se defender. Do que vale uma força aérea embarcada que estará sempre no limite da operacionalidade por conta da distância que terá que percorrer dos transportadores até os seu alvos na china? Vão chegar quanto muito ao litoral e dar meia volta porque o combustível dos aviões não permite mais do que isso?
Me atrevo a dizer que se os chineses lançarem uma salva concertada de misseis e afundarem um dos porta aviões dos eua a guerra acaba na hora. É sempre bom lembrar que os chineses estão em casa e tem um cardápio de alvos ianques para escolher. É só lembrar como os estadunidenses ficaram histéricos quando o líder norte coreano ameaçou atacar guan com mísseis caso os eua continuassem suas provocações. Se perderem esse paiol, que tem a maior concentração de armas fora do território dos eua, os ianques precisarão trazer tudo de casa e aí veremos como eles poderão manter tal cadeia de suprimentos. Claro…os psicopatas messiânicos sempre podem optar por um ataque nuclear…mas quem deles sobreviverá para comemorar a “vitória”?
Google translation,MOD:
Your analysis is generally correct with a slight disagreement I make about china losing if the battle is in blue waters. This can also be a big disadvantage for the Yankees. China is a continental country, not Libya or Iraq where you can maintain a task force nearby to safely bomb a country that cannot defend itself. What is the value of an air force on board that will always be at the limit of operationality due to the distance it will have to travel from carriers to their targets in China? Are they going to reach the coast as soon as possible and turn around because plane fuel doesn’t allow for more than that?
I dare say that if the Chinese launch a concerted missile salvo and sink one of the US aircraft carriers, the war will end in time. It’s always good to remember that the Chinese are at home and have a menu of Yankee targets to choose from. Just remember how hysterical Americans became when the North Korean leader threatened to attack guan with missiles if the US continued its provocations. If they lose this magazine, which has the highest concentration of weapons outside the US territory, the Yankees will need to bring everything from home, and then we’ll see how they can maintain such a supply chain. Of course…messianic psychopaths can always opt for a nuclear attack…but who will survive to celebrate “victory”?
>>>Is the US interested in a war against China over Taiwan? We simply do not know.<<<
No but it would love to see Taiwan destroy itself after we provoke China into invading them. Did we actually help Ukraine after trashing it? No EU membership and a token amount of military aid to keep the conflict simmering. Meanwhile, Ukraine is imploding.
China invades Taiwan, we ensure that there is enough defense to destroy their semi-conductors and lose most of its economic value for China. This justifies one of our patented economic weapons, a global trade embargo and most of our navy guys think we can stop Chinese merchant shipping for an actual blockade (we could but we will pay a price).
Actually, who knows, while we are engaging at a heightened economic war against China, maybe our military believes that we could pull a Kuwait and 're-take' Taiwan after preparing a task force for about a year.
————————————
BTW I consider this pure lunacy that would hurt the U.S. as much as China. I am just saying what our Neocons believe. They think that if we could get Taiwan to destroy itself, we could strike a fatal blow against China's economy with little cost to ourselves. These people are ruthless.
For people to understand current Taiwan Leaders/ruling elites/ruling part
I give you the new update and you can interpret it yourself.
Biden says he and China’s Xi agree to abide by Taiwan agreement
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/biden-says-he-chinas-xi-have-agreed-abide-by-taiwan-agreement-2021-10-05/
After this, the speaksman of Taiwan president immediately make this statement:
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2113258
https://www.mirrormedia.mg/story/20211006edi037/
總統府：美對台政策不變 維持對台承諾
Title Summary, translate by machine:
Presidential Palace: U.S. policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged and maintains its commitment to Taiwan
(I try to find the hold statement from Taiwan Presidential website-https://www.president.gov.tw/Default.aspx, and Youtube, there are no result, only the news and reports.)
So basically, this is what Taiwan leader/government official said to their citizens after this “Taiwan agreement” between US and China.
DO WORRY, DADDY US WILL SAVE US, AS HE ALWAYS SAID.
This is the update and what Taiwan current leader/party told to Taiwan people,
and I will leave here for you to interpret for yourself.
China today is not so different from China the last 5000 years… if they have to fight they will… and right now they will win… for all the reasons mentioned above… the USA and their allies need to go back to school and learn some history… but maybe they need to go to war with China to realise that…
China, Russia, Iran, South Korea, Germany,… want to be sovereign. The core (Five Eyes – gatekeepers) of the Financial Empire want to capture these nations to build its global empire. It is pursuing information, trade, technology, currency, financial,… proxy wars against China and Russia. The Empire has seen China as an adversary for a long time and stated it in the 1995 Bilderberg meeting notes. What were the topics of discussion at the 2019 Bilderberg meeting? This is a conflict between:
Sovereignty vs Suzerainty
Non-$ Bloc vs $ Bloc
Multilateralism vs Unipolar
“Russia won’t tolerate the post-Cold War global system dominated by a single leader. That type of world order has never been acceptable for Russia. Maybe someone likes it and wants to live under a pseudo-occupation, but we won’t put up with it.”
– Vladimir Putin
How will one identify a vassal nation (suzerainty) of the Private Imperialist Oligarchy (Financial Empire)? If your nation has had a private central bank in the last four centuries, then it is/was a vassal of the Private Imperialist Oligarchy. If your central bank is still private or autonomous, and your monetary system, private, then your nation has been successfully captured and is a vassal (suzerainty) of the Financial Empire.
https://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/meetings/meeting-2019/press-release-2019
Submarine warfare to cut merchant shipping lanes? Does the USA realize whose footsteps it is following?
LOL good one Passerby :-)
Also, if submarines are that critical, that they trump China’s missile force and satellites, growing aviation and surface fleet, they could buy some pretty good submarines from Russia. Russia builds some pretty good ones. It’s not like they would have to buy vintage unter Seebooten from Germany :-)
A Tereira Guerra Mundial já iniciou e poucos estão percebendo.
Há falta de energia, as cadeias de produção falham, uma tremenda inflação se espalha mundialmente.
Países se fecharão um atrás dos outros, eles sabem que precisarão de reservas para o que está porvir.
Mão Tsé Tung está dando risada junto com Stalin dessa situação, podem acreditar!
Alguns chefes indígenas Cheroquees bem como alguns mártires Muçulmanos do nível de Soleimani e outros como Fidel e Guevara provavelmente estão na torcida.
Lá num canto vejo Kadafi e Sadam se cumprimentando…
Creio que esse Império já fez muito mal à humanidade, essa situação precisa ser resolvida com alguém dizendo “não, não é assim “.
Como aquela boa avó que nos disciplinava melhor que a mãe!
Sinceramente, estou apreensivo com o que vai acontecer no próximo inverno no Hemisfério Norte.
Não é um bom pressentimento, infelizmente.
:-/
Google translation,MOD:
The Third World War has already started and few are realizing it.
There is a lack of energy, production chains fail, tremendous inflation is spreading worldwide.
Countries will close one after the other, they know they will need reserves for what is to come.
Mao Tse Tung is laughing along with Stalin at this situation, believe me!
Some indigenous Cherokee chiefs as well as some Muslim martyrs of the level of Soleimani and others like Fidel and Guevara are likely to be in the crowd.
In a corner I see Gaddafi and Saddam greeting each other…
I believe that this Empire has already done a lot of harm to humanity, this situation needs to be resolved with someone saying “no, it’s not like that”.
Like that good grandmother who disciplined us better than her mother!
Honestly, I am apprehensive about what will happen next winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Not a good feeling, unfortunately.
:-/
It appears that a Seawolf class submarine had some sort of a collision in the South China sea very recently.
https://news.usni.org/2021/10/07/breaking-attack-submarine-uss-connecticut-suffers-underwater-in-pacific
This is potentially very significant for US war plans. China’s ASW capabilities are not supposed to be that good. Any US attack would rely heavily on submarines in the earliest round. If China were to spot and give a US sub a nudge as a warning that they are spotted this changes any US plans significantly. I don’t know what exactly happened but this particular submarine is on its way back to Guam.
Provavelmente afundou algum barco de pesca ou raspou Rocha submersa.
Google translation,MOD:
Probably sunk some fishing boat or scraped underwater rock.
no its not china! its the russian! xD HA Ha
sorry cant say too much here… not now not yet… popcorn still hot! 10.10!
ya’ll stay alive stay safe :)
bwbs
p/s what I can ‘reveal’ is the official nobody-talk-about-this TW unification was ‘fixed’ on 2025 but since the ‘rule based order’, that piece/peace, has been broken by you know ‘who is broke’ so the chi-hawks are well, wanna stretch and play w da toys! so the date has been moved accordingly to ‘anytime is a good time’. like I said, XJP is spending YUGE political credit to ‘suppress’ them and I may look the other way or go back to me 16hr long beautysleep2. yes, we just had another ‘war’, not released to the public. that one they said ended in 3hrs. well, bojo will argue for 6. go ask the russian I am sure they saw the whole LARP not sure to :( or :D sigh other than overeating overplaying candycrush and overwatching anime (brain opium according to CCP! Ha!), beautysleep is still the best! in beautysleep I can do ALL and at the same time and not care for gravity/’fruits’… who said there is no life there?
Thank you, Chairman Xi, for your perceptive analysis. Cannot these commenters here allow themselves to say anything at all negative aBout China and it’s ruling cabal?? Yes, granted, the US/Eu/Zio cabal is detestable, but please give some indication you can see your own deficits.
Well, yes there is much to criticize about China’s political elite. I think it is a bit harder for people of a western background to do it because the differences in language and thought formation. I’ve a Chinese auntie from Taipei that used to be on the editorial staff at a news paper there. I was visiting her with my brother who lived in China for a short period and speaks some Chinese. I was struck by how differently Chinese think about things compared to the Western mindset. Much more of a collective thinking process that puts an emphasis on how one’s actions effect the whole of society. Personal freedoms barely registers.
Personally I have many Tibetan friends and would like to see a major change in this area regarding Chinese policy. I would like to see Tibet as a semiautonomous province that respects religious beliefs and promotes the Tibetan people rather than displacing them. There are many issues with Chinese leadership for sure and thanks for pointing it out.
Sinking or boarding merchant vessels is chaos which will lead to war in a very short time. Regardless of political views this is a drastic step and should be avoided at all costs. It may be harder than most people believe to drum up support when your the one disrupting world trade to the extent where merchant vessels are being sunk. In a collapsing empire scenario where I believe we are at now even the most compliant states will question their commitments when facing serious damage. The weak will fall first like the armies of Italy and Romania on the Russian front in 1942. In todays world that means destruction of a part of their homeland. It would be a gamble one may loose to believe your vassal states are in it for the long haul.