by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times ) by special agreement with the author)
Facing China’s irresistible rise all across the chessboard, and under relentless US pressure, the not exactly democratic EU leadership is on a backbreaking exercise to position itself between a geopolitical/geoeconomic rock and a hard place.
The 28-member EU holds a crucial meeting next week in Brussels where it may adopt a 10-point action plan detailing, in a thesis, the terms of an equitable economic relationship with China going forward.
This will happen as Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Italy and then France – ahead of the very important, annual China-EU summit in Brussels on April 9, to be co-chaired by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
That’s the crucial context under which the European Commission (EC) has recommended what it describes as 10 concrete “actions” to the EU Heads of State for their debate at the European Council in March 21 and 22.
The full report, EU-China – A Strategic Outlook, is here.
The EC shows how in 2017 – the latest available figures – the EU was “China’s largest partner with a share of 13% of imports of goods in China and a share of 16% of exports of goods from China.” At the same time, the EC stresses that China is an “economic competitor” and “a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.”
Yet the EC’s “contribution” to the European Council debate next week is far from confrontational. It is a balancing act couched in Eurocratic terminology attempting to shape common “resolve” among the 28 member-states.
Predictable real problem
Coming from the EC/EU, support for “effective multilateralism with the United Nations at its core” is the norm – with China fully integrated.
Beijing is praised for its support for the Iran nuclear deal, its role in the denuclearization of North Korea, its upcoming role in the peace process in Afghanistan and tackling the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar. The real problem, predictably, is China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.
Virtually no one apart from Brussels Eurocrats knows about the existence of an “EU Strategy on Connecting Europe and Asia.” That’s one of those joint communiqués that no one reads, issued late last year, “enabling the Union to seek synergies between the EU and third countries, including China, in transport, energy and digital connectivity, on the basis of international norms and standards.”
Curiously, in the EC report, there’s no mention whatsoever of the New Silk Road, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – which happens to be China’s synergy masterplan for the whole of Eurasia. We could define it as Globalization 3.0.
On the other hand, Made in China 2025 is duly referenced – and not demonized, Trump administration-style.
From the EU perspective, the key problem remains “lack of reciprocal market access.” The EU wants greater access for European companies, less Chinese subsidies for Chinese companies and curtailment of technology transfer from European firms to their state-owned joint venture partners in China.
All this should be part of a deal on investment rules to be clinched by 2020.
Action 9 in the EC report is quite revealing: “To safeguard against potential serious security implications for critical digital infrastructure, a common EU approach to the security of 5G networks is needed.” To deal with it, the EC will issue – what else – another “recommendation.”
A hefty degree of Eurocratic puzzlement seems to be in the cards; one cannot disassociate BRI from Made in China, 5G and Huawei technology; it’s all part of the same package. Yet the EU is under heavy pressure from Washington to ban Huawei and forget about joining BRI, even as nearly 20 EU member-states are already linked or interested in linking to BRI, and a majority are also interested in Chinese 5G technology.
Brussels diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that the EC report was basically authored by Berlin and Paris. And yes, they had to deal with heavy Washington pressure.
The report harbors a subtle, inbuilt element of “Chinese threat” – perhaps not as overtly as in a Pentagon report. This stance is how the Franco-German alliance believes it may influence “recalcitrants” such as the 16+1 group of Central and Eastern European nations doing business with China, as well as soon to be BRI-linked Italy.
Yet that’s already a done deal – as I detailed in the case of Italy.
‘Existential threat’
Beijing is accomplishing, little by little, something that is unbearable for the Beltway; extending its influence not only inside the EU but inside the NATO space.
The US Deep State may have lumped BRI – along with Made in China 2025 and Huawei’s 5G – as part of an “existential threat”; but that’s not the case for most EU latitudes, from Greece and Portugal to German industrialists and the new Lega/Five Stars administration in Rome.
Brussels very well knows that Washington will punish any “ally” who gets too close to Beijing. It’s never enough to be reminded that the list of economic “threats” to the US features, in that order, China, Russia and Germany. And Italy is now caught in the crossfire – because it is committed to good economic relations with both China and Russia.
Rome has already sent a clear message to Brussels; beyond any EU common “resolve” facing China, what matters is the Italian national economic interest in, for instance, linking the ports of Venice, Trieste and Genoa to the New Silk Road. Alarmed Atlanticists are essentially warning that Italians cannot cross a red line; they need to ask permission to act independently. That’s not going to happen – whatever the EC decides to “recommend.”
The puppet fascist Salvini regime{ fascism is always a tool of (((international))) finance } is Never going to improve ties with China/ Russia . The Atlanticists are using Italy as a dog to understand the intricacies of BRI deals and how to negotiate with China for other major issues.
This doesn’t sound plausible. The Atlanticists never negotiate, they only know the language of demands, ultimatums and sanctions. Why would they need Italy now to learn how to negotiate with China/Russia about issues where they anyway just want to impose their views!?
Your description of the italian government doesn’t sound right as well. They are neither a puppet, nor fascist nor a regime. It is actually the first italian government since a long time ago that takes in certain areas some measures FOR the people and it is a quite popular government.
Merkel, Macron and the EU establishment actually hate the current government of Italy, seems that it must be doing something right.
Salvini has some very interesting views on family and traditional values. That dude was photographed standing on the red square in Moscow, wearing a Putin T-shirt, he is surely not what you describe him to be.
Salvini will speak at the World’s first anti-globalist and pro-family conference in Verona on March 29-31.
I don’t know if he can really change course for Italy, but he for sure keeps rocking the EU boat.
I’m all for ‘pro-family’ actions, so long as all families are supported, not just one type or another. The greatest enemy of families is the global neo-liberal capitalist system, and its thug enforcers of the West.
There is only one ‘type’ of family, the ‘traditional’ family, the natural one: father (the male of the species Homo sapiens), mother(the female of the species Homo sapiens), children.
Anonymoose-it is a pleasure to ignore your ‘anonymous’ prejudice.
So by your logic the Chinese government is prejudiced since their definition of a family is exactly that: male father, female mother, etc
Oh my! how could you criticize China!
As much as certain EU countries dislike the U.S., they also do not want to become part of the “China Empire” either. Trump stopped China from dumping steel in the U.S. at below market prices. China tried to dump in the EU, which resulted in blocking action by the EU (1). So right now, relations between the EU and China are less than smooth.
The “Yellow Vest” movement is about jobs and wages. China wants deals that boost their exports. Given that EU national leaders want to be re-elected, it is hard to see any deal that favors Chinese imports over domestic EU production obtaining traction right now.
The most likely outcome is deferring any major commitments for several years.
______
(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-apos-steel-tariffs-forced-114159985.html
A123, the Chinese have NO intention of creating an ‘Empire’. That is just black propaganda and Western pathopsychological projection. They want trade, which means importing as well as exporting, and mass tourism and cultural exchange. The more they import, the greater the standard of living of the Chinese people, and the more renminbi circulating in the global economy. As for ‘dumping’- WTO rules apply, and Trump’s tariffs, for instance, on Chinese steel and aluminium have destroyed more jobs in US industries dependent on cheap Chinese imports of these products than have been created in industries fabricating them in the USA.
RE: “(…)what matters is the Italian national economic interest in, for instance, linking the ports of Venice, Trieste and Genoa to the New Silk Road.”
COMMENT: 10-15 years ago, the regional government of PUGLIA aimed to become the hub of China-Western Europe trade, preparing the cities of Bari and Brìndisi for this role — and of course the excellent harbour and port facilities at Tàranto, which is the draditional main base of the Italian navy war ships. Whilst Genova and especially Venetia were slowly plotting otherwise, apparently: The South will never rise again, it seems…
‘Brussels very well knows that Washington will punish any “ally” who gets too close to Beijing.’
China and the US are in a struggle to be the world’s greatest economic nation. China is still in second place, but moving up fast. America has held that position since the end of the Second World War. But Great Powers come and go. If the USA is unwilling to give up that position the only outcome will be world war three. The pattern of history is quite clear.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
The Chinese economy is already 25 per cent bigger than that of the US on a purchasing power parity basis even as calculated by the IMF. So the days are long gone when the US was the largest economy. On the same basis the Russian economy is on par with the German so there is absolutely no doubt that the Eurasian economy when integrated will be completely dominant.
This is of course the reason behind the trade war against China and Russia but sooner or later Europe must come to its senses.
As Sven below, notes, China surpassed the USA on a PPP basis in 2014, and is pulling away. Moreover, as visitors to the USA and China can see, the USA is crumbling, while China is bright and shiny new, with modern infrastructure in transport, education, urban amenities, renewable energy, cultural facilities etc-in other words ‘target rich’ for the thugs in Thanatopolis DC. China’s economy makes things, too, and is not as dominated by financial parasitism as the USA.
Furthermore US ‘education’ is a sewer, while China is at or near the top of international measures of success. China produces far more graduates in science and technology, and post-graduates as well, than the USA and recently surpassed the USA in patents. US elite education is, as we have seen recently, utterly corrupt, whereas China’s is, with some exceptions, meritocratic. Oligarchs and high Party officials in China with dumb or relatively thick offspring, generally bribe their way into foreign ‘elite’ institutions.
Left alone, China would far surpass the USA, and drag up other states with it, unlike the malignant sabotage and exploitation of others that is the USA’s record for 200 years. But that would outrage the Gods Upon the Earth in Thanatopolis DC and their allied stooges in the West, whose eternal global domination is ordained by God himself, sitting on his, no doubt white, throne, somewhere south of Pence and Pompeo’s calcified pineal glands.
The only ‘dilemma’ is whether the EU (or its parts separately) want to remain in the American Empire. If not, they can simply act in their own interest (or the interest of their ruling oligarchs).
If too many “allies” start crossing over, there will be too many countries to punish.
Who knows, could the European vassals actually know what is good for them and cross over to protect their own interests ?
Who knows, could the European vassals actually know what is good for them and cross over to protect their own interests ?
The anti-Russia sanctions have been very expensive for Europe. They will continue to be costly: Europe has probably lost the Russian market permanently for some products (such as agriculture).
Sanctioning China will be even more expensive for the Euros. They will permanently lose the giant Chinese market for many goods.
Just one example. Due to Boeing’s 737 Max 8 disaster, Europe’s Airbus is in good position to satisfy most of China’s estimated $1 trillion demand for passenger jets. They will lose this if the EU sanctions China. Worse, if the Russian/Chinese C929 gets traction, due to EU sanctions basically protecting COMAC, Airbus will likely lose a big chunk of the global airplane market in the future. If the Euros sanction China, they will be shooting themselves in both feet.
Russian/Chinese C929
Oops, typo, I mean C919.
… And Then There Were None”
BRICS … BR─CS … BR─C─ … ─R─C─ … … pipeline dreams https://www.rt.com/news/454233-nato-membership-brazil-trump/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t6kSQ562OQ
Five Little Indians Went Out To Dine …
… And Then There Were None”
Well now, the US is certainly going after the BRICS. It’s trying to bring Brazil into NATO. The BRICS might survive as an international institution, then again it might not. I always viewed the BRICS as an experiment, as I knew the US would try to undermine it. However, that is not too important, as the BRICS are a junior partner to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Euro-Asian Economic Union and the Silk Road. These three are the ones who matter and who represent the backbone of Euro-Asia, the emerging economic and political power house. If the BRICS are broken up, it will mean almost nothing.
The point is that politics is at the mercy of economics and not the other way round. China is reality and so is Russia. Russia is also in Europe. Europe is slowly turning towards the East, and in the end there is nothing the US can do to prevent this. Yes, it can apply sanctions, which will only speed up the eastward movement of Europe. The US can also use what ever influence NATO has left in Europe. What else can the US do, bearing in mind that Europe is an economic power house which cannot function without trade ?
The point is that in the past years the US has lost both prestige and credibility as it has never done before, not only due to it’s domestic political conflicts, but also due to it’s foreign policy initiatives. It has abandoned all pretense of respecting international law, even threatening Europe with sanctions and issuing imperial decrees on bilateral trade between countries. A most unfortunate impression has been created that the Washington political establishment has lost all sense of reality, turning into an imperial megalomaniac who is doing it’s utmost to retain it’s globalist position, something it is rapidly losing. All this has increased the prestige of Russia and China. The US is digging it’s own political and economic grave.
Finally, there is no question that the US empire is cracking up. It has no friends or allies, only vassals, and these vassals are beginning to say ‘no’. The coming period is going to be both interesting and dangerous, as we shall see what methods the US is going to use to prevent the inevitable, namely it’s globalist demise.
“A most unfortunate impression has been created that the Washington political establishment has lost all sense of reality…..”
On the contrary, it is “most fortunate” that the US is showing its true face. The faster the US and its Empire is weakened, the better.
The NATO European countries cannot turn east as long as their elite are US slaves. The US uses the NATO alliance (defence pact) and European vassalage as a hammer against Russia and whoever it doesn’t like. The only way for Europe to turn east if it dumps NATO all together.
You cannot turn east and at the same time be in a military alliance that still exists with the purpose to threaten Russia.
Nationalism and popularism is slowly on the rise in Europe. People are not happy with the neo-liberal policies.
Will the Europeans vote-in a different group of elites that will eventually break up the EU and NATO ?
And if they do, who said they will turn East ?
“… And if they do, who said they will turn East ? …”
An excellent question indeed.
Unless, of course, by “turning East” one means “turning on the East”…
The entire history of Western Europe (its juvenile N.A. progeny eminently included) is exclusively one of wanton world-wide plunder and parasitism, and there is no reason for the “tradition” to be suddenly broken…
In fact … the very “ascent” of “the West” can be dated from its monstruous plunder of Constantinople in 1204, the amount of looted gold and other riches there being truly vast: “… An unprecedented flow of free money caused the Western European cities to grow wildly, and became the decisive catalyst in the development of craft, science, and the arts. The barbaric West became the civilized West only after it had taken over, stolen, destroyed, and swallowed up the Byzantine Empire. …” http://vizantia.info/docs/27.htm , https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=f1CWG-2GLU4 .
And looking through the eyes of philosopher Andre Vltchek “… no other part of the world has murdered more people on our planet, than Europe. And most North Americans are descendants of the Europeans. The ‘foreign policy’ of the US is directly derived from colonialist policies of the former European powers. Therefore, crimes against humanity committed by the West have never stopped; never stopped for centuries. …” https://journal-neo.org/2019/03/19/u-s-to-icc-we-will-break-your-legs/
H.Giraud, another leap in the West’s power was brought about by the arrival of vast amounts of gold and silver from the Western Hemisphere. The fabulous Potosi silver mines in Bolivia delivered up their gelt thanks to slave labour, SIX MILLION or so of whom were worked to death in the brutal conditions. ‘Western Moral Values’ in excelsis.
Harry_Red
“…who said they will turn East ?”. But they will turn East, as they have no choice. To whom will they turn ?
Europe is seeing a Russian-Chinese economic partnership, a Euro-Asian block offering energy, markets, credit and technology. Some years back an American analyst quoted the old 19th century American saying “go West young man”. The same analyst stated that pretty soon we shall be saying “go East young man”.
As for Europe, take a look at it, and what do you see ? Financial, social and ethnic troubles. These three factors alone will act as a catalyst for Europe to look towards the East for backup.
Here’s info on the latest between China/the EU. This comes from a few key Italian economists.
It’s intended to expose you to how Europe (especially Germany/France) have been operating for about one thousand years:
“With Italy, Americans and Europeans always use the double standard. Washington then applies the geopolitics of the beggars to the Italian case.
When the gas pipeline between Moscow and Italy was to be decided, the South Stream, the Europeans and the US blocked it while Germany had the green light for the North Stream that brings Putin’s gas to Berlin. Now with China it is more or less the same thing.
THE NUMBERS ON THE EXCHANGE WITH CHINA
Here are the figures of the true economic relations with Beijing of our competitors and Washington allies. China is Germany’s first trading partner in 2017 with 186 billion euros, France has an interchange with Beijing of 70 billion euros, Italy of 42, half of Paris and almost a fifth compared to Berlin. Great Britain in Europe is the first half of China’s investments, the trade between the two countries is equal to 79 billion dollars.
WHAT THE OTHER EU STATES DO WITH CHINA
London is one of the founders of the Asian infrastructure investment bank (Aiib), to finance Chinese infrastructure. In 10 years China has made 227 acquisitions in Great Britain, 225 in Germany, 89 in France, 85 in Italy. The Chinese are shareholders in the ports of Rotterdam and Belgium, as well as owners of Frankfurt airport and no one has said anything.
EU AND US CONTRADICTIONS ON CHINA AND ITALY
Now that other European countries have done a lot more business than we do with China, our competitors want to put a stop to Italy’s agreements, putting the stakes to Chinese holdings after losing their balance for years. Not for political or security reasons, as they are waving, but because we could erode some share of the Chinese market, without ever reaching, even remotely, the German, French or English levels.
THE ITALY-CHINA MOU DOSSIER
The famous Italy-China Memorandum concerning the Silk Roads is only symbolic without any concrete commitment. The Chinese point to logistic investments on Trieste as they have already done in Venice and Porto Marghera (on containers, which has raised no objection here). The question of the 5G network and Huawei, which is also the largest investor in networks across Europe and has already penetrated forces in France and Eastern Europe, will not even be touched upon.
THE STRATEGIES AND SILENCES OF THE UNITED STATES
The US ambassador Eisenberg, known for being the financier who earned more money in the world with a single operation, berated one of our undersecretaries for agreements with China. But the US does not say anything to Israel where Beijing has bought the port of Haifa, the port of call for the American navy, and is the largest Asian partner of China. As well, the US says nothing to Turkish President Erdogan, a member of NATO, who buys Putin’s missiles.