By Theo Toll for the Saker Blog
The whole world has been watching with great alarm the events unfolding around a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine for several months now. The Kremlin’s position is crystal-clear: expanding Russia’s borders will give access to a region rich in natural resources, while seizing Kiev, Dnieper and Kherson will provide Crimea with water. But is Putin the only one who would stand to gain from this war?
EVACUATION UNDER PRESSURE
Almost fifty countries have decided to evacuate their citizens and diplomatic missions from Ukraine. Some governments did not take such drastic steps, but they still moved their diplomatic staff from Kiev to Lvov in western Ukraine. British and American military specialists have also packed up and left. Not to be left behind, Russia too decided to withdraw its diplomatic personnel and specialists from Ukraine. There is a whole bunch of charter flights preparing to take off from the country’s main Borispol airport in Kiev to take out business tycoons and politicians who have something to lose in the event of martial law or a real Russian invasion.
The OSCE observation mission is no exception. Until recently, they had been providing objective information about what was going on along the point of contact between Ukraine and the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. With the mission now gone, the European community will have no evidence of war crimes and violations of international law, including human rights violations, in the event of a real invasion and full-scale offensive operation by Russia.
The absence of international oversight looks like an invitation to war, pushing the participants in the conflict to implement the scenario of a real, all-stops-out war. Russia can justify the Western expectations and send in its troops. Ukraine too can take the first step and try to regain the occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
WHO WILL BE THE FIRST?
Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly declared their commitment to complying with the Minsk agreements, which establish the status quo in the region. President Putin has turned down a parliamentary appeal to recognize the DPR and LPR in another attempt to demonstrate to the West his desire to comply with the Minsk accords and maintain the peace. Simultaneously, the Russian military began to pull out from the border areas and wrapped up its exercises as a sign of confirmation of Moscow’s official position.
The very next day, however, strange things started happening in eastern Ukraine with eyewitnesses reporting a spike in military activity. While earlier, the conflicting sides had limited themselves to just a single shelling of enemy positions a day, this time round, shelling became systemic and happened on an hourly basis.
Explosions are mostly heard coming from the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic, meaning that it is the DPR that is the target and not the other way round. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov says that nothing is really happening along the disengagement line between Ukraine and the temporarily occupied territories, and the situation is under the full control of the Ukrainian armed forces. At the same time, Moscow is taking its time making no comments and withdrawing its troops from the border areas, which is confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence that Reznik relies on.
Who is shelling the positions of the DPR then? Are the people of Donbass blowing themselves up with their own shells? This means that someone is no longer complying with the Minsk agreements, and we have an invisible war going on, albeit with real civilian casualties.
Meanwhile, military expert Eduard Basurin published a list of violations of the Minsk agreements by Ukraine. This includes a February 11, 2022 explosion in Donetsk, and mortar shelling that happened near the village of Zinchenko on the night of February 15. This information has also been confirmed by local residents, who wrote on social networks that they saw Ukrainian soldiers setting up mortar positions outside the village, and, shortly afterwards, shelling began.
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Over the past month, Ukraine has received significant amounts of lethal weapons from Britain and the US, which were supposed to be put to use in the event of a possible aggression by Russia. However, Ukraine has stockpiles of chemical weapons left over from the Soviet Union, and which it could theoretically use in the event of a major conflict. Information about Ukraine’s failure to destroy Soviet chemical weapons has repeatedly been published, including by Ukrainian media outlets. Sixteen shells with hydrocyanic acid found in the Chernivtsi region is just one example of this.
All this attests to the increased strength of the Ukrainian army, which now has a chance to recapture the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Indeed, President Zelensky made the return of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea the cornerstone of his electoral program. However, even if Kiev goes to war in a bid to restore the country’s territorial integrity, this would not relieve it of its obligations to comply with the Minsk accords, which are the only legal mechanism for ending the conflict. Moreover, during his recent meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as telephone linkups with US President Joe Biden, Zelensky reiterated Kiev’s official promise to comply with the terms of the Minsk agreements.
With no independent assessment of the situation by the OSCE observation mission, representatives of Ukraine and the unrecognized republics are testing the boundaries of just how far they can go in this invisible conflict, which is holding so many ordinary people hostage. If the international community fails to act and fast, then Moscow’s apparent desire to soften its position on the Ukrainian issue may come to naught, and we will once again see a further escalation of Russian aggression. And this is already undermining the foundations of European security.
“With no independent assessment of the situation by the OSCE observation mission, representatives of Ukraine and the unrecognized republics are testing the boundaries of just how far they can go in this invisible conflict, which is holding so many ordinary people hostage. If the international community fails to act and fast, then Moscow’s apparent desire to soften its position on the Ukrainian issue may come to naught, and we will once again see a further escalation of Russian aggression. And this is already undermining the foundations of European security.”
This sounds as both 404 and Donetsk-Lugansk republics are equally suspect to provoking the other side, and that cold lead to “Russian aggression” which then leads to “undermining the foundations of European security”. The way it sounds, it does not sound right. Europe should send back their OSCE observation mission to the separation zone , to, well, observe and inform the world. It is cynical to pull the observers and start accusing both sides equally. Without OSCE anybody can claim anything.
Do you believe Donetsk and Lugansk Republic want Russia to enter Ukraine and thus start much bigger war? Recognized or non recognized, they would be happy to be left alone. Even Western media never reported that Donetsk/Lugansk Republics are looking forward to “Russian invasion of Ukraine”.
Bad conclusion to the otherwise fair article.
The withdrawal of the OSCE mission was intentional. It was one of the goals of the hysteria campaign. With OSCE onsite, maintaining sufficient fog-of-war would be difficult..
Once the war starts, it would not matter who started it and it would no longer be possible to (easily) determine it either. For the war party it is critical to ensure it cannot be (easily) determined who started the hostilities.
“Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly declared their commitment to complying with the Minsk agreements, …”
Why are you spouting this here ?
The parties to the Minsk accords are Ukraine one one side, DPR and LNR on the other.
France, Germany and Russia are GUARANTORS. That explicitly means neither are parties in any way or form.
All three are declaring *committment* to the agreements. This means they support them and are accepting their guarantor roles in pressuring the parties to respect the accords. There is nothing to comply here for Germany or France or Russia as far as Minsk accords go.
Really strange assertion. What Russia has to “comply”?
This teally puts into question the author objectivity/knowledge in this matter.
“The Kremlin’s position is crystal-clear: expanding Russia’s borders will give access to a region rich in natural resources…”
“Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly declared their commitment to complying with the Minsk agreements…”
What kind of nonsense is this???
“What kind of nonsense is this???”
Agreed, the author’s narrative doesn’t seem to have any strict basis in reality.
Makes it kind of hard to take the rest of the piece seriously.
I don’t agree with this writer’s use of the term “Russian aggression” with regard to events in Ukraine. Russia has bent over backwards to achieve peace in Ukraine despite the intransigence of Ukraine and her Western handlers. I have been quite frustrated by the Russian government’s insistence on resolving things in Ukraine by diplomatic means when it is obvious that those controlling Ukraine want a military confrontation.
Despite all the talk of Russian aggression in the mainstream media, the aggressors in Ukraine are the US and their NATO hangers-on as well as their Ukrainian government proxy. Russia has shown the patience of a saint to the constant stream of anti-Russian propaganda and provocations. It is clear that any negotiations with the West are a waste of air and time.
‘Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly declared their commitment to complying with the Minsk agreements, which establish the status quo in the region.’
1. Ukraine has repeatedly declared NOT to comply with the Minsk agreements.
2. Russia is not even mentionned in the Minsk agreement. The only parties to the agreement are Kiev and LDNR.
3. The agreements are supposed to CHANGE the status quo through all kinds of measures like according autonomy for Donbass.
‘…and we will once again see a further escalation of Russian aggression.’
Excuse me, but what nonsense. I’m sorry to say this, but in my opinion this was a weak article, to put it mildly.
I suspect the NATO nations and the EU bureaucracy have given Ukraine the OK to invade the Donbass. The entire west is in favor but their approval has limits. Ukrainians have to do the dieing. Why else would they pour arms into the hands of some pretty questionable people. Biden is pushing pretty hard so is Johnson but the Ukrainians have their doubts that the cheerleaders for this war have their backs. Zelensky is weak he controls nothing there are well armed men who do not take their orders from him. The players know if the Donbass is attacked all hell breaks loose and NATO cannot wait for it to happen. It is a powder keg with a number of people wanting to put a match to the whole thing. Be careful what you wish for this is a recipe for disaster.
” … and we will once again see a further escalation of Russian aggression”.
Why was this anti-Russian article published, or have I misunderstood it ?
Lets be clear here, the issue is not it is an “anti-Russian” text. That would be fine and all.
The issue is it being anti-Russian via intentional disinfo and straight out lies.
There is a HUUGE difference between having a differing view and intentionally lying on easily verifiable facts to support it. HUGE, HUGE difference!
The cover picture for this article is by Patrick Lancaster @PLnewstoday … it was taken in 2015 or so, as I recall. It is also the cover picture of his twitter account.
The two children are sitting on a park bench in front of their school in the LNR or DPR, which was shelled by Ukies.
Banderastan clearly intends to invade the Donbas and ethnically cleanse the region. They have built up a force of 150,000 to achieve this end, equipped with all the shiny new toys courtesy of the US and UK taxpayer. The “imminent Russian invasion” that never quite comes off, is intended as cover to provide a smokescreen for this operation. Those responsible, the Washington Neocons and their yapping poodles in the UK and EU, bear a very heavy responsibility for the likely outcome, the loss of life and the destruction of their client Kiev Fascist Coup Regime. They are playing with fire and risk a debacle that will make their previous misadventures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and so many other places seem trivial by comparison.
The Minsk agreements are between the Donbass and The Ukraine, Russia like Germany and France just mediated. You might as we say, Germany is failing to implement Minsk agreement terms!… Gawd even I know Russia is not a signatory.. It is all misdirection, implying somehow Russia dishonering, when it is The Ukraine dishonering…. Sloppy on facts mate.
Theo Toll’s thinking seems to be contaminated with Western propaganda tosh. What is this supposed to mean, for just one example or several:
“…we will once again see a further escalation of Russian aggression.”
What ‘Russian aggression’ has there been, to ‘escalate’ in the first place? What is this sort of reality-free language doing on the Saker blog? I can go to the Western lamestream mediawhores if I want to hear such tosh.
Why was this article allowed to be posted here?
All in all, Andrei has been got to, right Andrei?
My Bible spells out the sequencing for mrcs fall. I’m seeing how well the developments fit the pages long schea of it. Like I said, you’re in the bad place. Divine judgement is to befall this polluted land. It will become a swampland merged into either ocean and with extraordinary mythos surrounding it, for all born after it. A synonym for every form of wickedness, the new Sodom/Gomorrah. Know it.
Really, this was written for the saker? Does Andrei even read what is posted on his blog? The stand-first disqualifies the piece from the start.
Take this sentence for example: “The Kremlin’s position is crystal-clear: expanding Russia’s borders will give access to a region rich in natural resources, while seizing Kiev, Dnieper and Kherson will provide Crimea with water.”
How on earth does the author reach such conclusion? I bet even the Atlantic council could not do better.