by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
The art of the non-deal might be the only way out of the stand-off between the US and North Korea
High-level inter-Korean talks at the border village of Panmunjeom not only represent a vital step in Winter Olympics’ diplomacy but also offer a tantalizing chance of a breakthrough in stalled six-party discussions.
In stark contrast with the usual tweet barrage, United States President Donald Trump even told South Korean President Moon Jae-in that the meeting could yield a positive outcome.
Among the possibilities are that Seoul and Pyongyang could resume civilian exchanges. The hotline between South and North Korea could reopen along with the joint Kaesong Industrial Region, which was closed in 2016.
The potential of reinvigorating the sidelined six-party talks, involving China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, the US and North Korea, is another possibility.
Beyond the Winter Olympics, the fierce divide between North and South, of course, will not be breached, even though North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has stressed that his country will not go nuclear unless “hostile forces” attack his regime.
He appears confident that there will not be a preemptive US nuclear strike because of the North’s deterrent. So, the question now is where will China position itself after the Panmunjeon talks?
Rumors that Beijing was resigned to an imminent war between Washington and Pyongyang were never credible. Certainly, one view that came out of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China last October was that President Xi Jinping would protect Beijing’s complex relationship with Washington in parallel with relationships with major trade partners across Asia.
But that does not necessarily mean abandoning North Korea. The number one strategic imperative for Beijing is to keep the country as a cushion against the US presence in Northeast Asia. A reunited Korean peninsula, with American soldiers stationed at China’s northwest border, has to be prevented at all costs.
Direct confrontation
Yet that also means averting any escalation that could lead to a direct confrontation with the US. So, it is fair to argue that Xi has concluded that business with the US far outweighs unconditional support for the North, which does not advance Beijing’s interests.
Leading Chinese adviser, Professor Shi Yinhong, has famously described North Korea as a “time bomb,” so contingencies plans have been put in place. The building of a six-lane highway between Shuangliao, a city in western Jilin, through to Ji’an, a prefecture-level city in the central region of Jiangxi, and on to the Korean border is significant.
It can be interpreted as a roadmap to secure the North’s nuclear arsenal in an extreme case. This would involve the Kim dynasty crumbling or a move by Beijing to change the Pyongyang regime – something that has been discussed by Chinese think tanks for years.
Indeed, that scenario ties up with suggestions that China’s People’s Liberation Army would not interfere even if the US launched a preemptive attack. Officially, though, Beijing’s position is in favor of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
This would start with a “double freeze” mechanism, allowing for dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. Beijing is acutely aware that containing the North’s nuclear program will have a direct effect on the military upgrading of Japan and South Korea. China is also keen to improve relations with Seoul.
Since 1953, only a flimsy armistice exists on the Korean peninsula. And no geopolitical actor has attempted to alter the status quo. After all, any wobble would generate a tectonic shift in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical chessboard, with unforeseen consequences.
Now, though, a nuclear North Korea is changing the dynamics as competition between the US and China in the region intensifies along with Russia’s eastward tilt. Then, of course, there is Japan and South Korea, two major economic powers.
As much as the North may fear the impact in its own internal market of Beijing’s trademark geoeconomic onslaught, it is not far-fetched to imagine Kim looking toward Washington to throw a wrench into China’s New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative.
Just like Trump, Kim may not be a stellar reader. But he is certainly aware, as the Pentagon sees it, that the Western Pacific, coupled with the Indian Ocean, is absolutely strategic for the containment of China.
Studies such as Michael Green’s By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783 make it clear that the US will not tolerate another power establishing “exclusive hegemony.”
Still, Washington is at a loss when dealing with North Korea. Russia and China oppose any military solution which would interfere with their geopolitical aims. At the same time, Pyongyang wants to be accepted as a nuclear power and a key actor on the Asia-Pacific chessboard.
Devastating strike
Therefore, there are only three options on the table. The first is a devastating preemptive strike, nuclear as well as air and sea forces. This would lead to an immense loss of life not only in the North but also in Seoul, which would be within range of Kim’s artillery.
The talks in Panmunjeon are yet more evidence that President Moon is doing everything in his power to prevent a march toward war.
The second option is to accept North Korea as a nuclear power under stringent international controls from the US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. The de-escalation would have to include a deal to freeze the North’s nuclear program.
There are signs that secret channels used by the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are still open. This improbable redemption of a nuclear rogue state, though, would mean a slight alteration of the status quo. It would also hand China a huge advantage in the region.
Finally, the third option is to admit this is an insoluble problem, and turn Kim into a rational actor and let the North keep its bomb. Kim’s regime would then be warned that any attempt to use it would result in “fire and fury”.
Call it the art of the non-deal.
Much depends on US Policy. Given the enormous efforts ongoing to remove Trump and Change US Policy it is reasonable to expect Mr. Kim to be in office watch Mr Trump leaving office prematurely. As with JFK in 1963-64 the Policy may be also expected to change with the departure of T Man.
Given the value of the festering Korean pied a ter maintained by empire in the axis-korea – a dagger wound in Heartland, it seems reasonable that the dagger will not be willingly removed. Rather otherwise, one may expect.
And there is a recent history of expanding the daggers thrusts into Heartland…Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and so forth.
Expect Korean to become infected in vast ruins, as this reflects the cold logic of empire… As was also the case in 1914 when the english king ordered his minister to “find a reason for war at all costs”.
The situation with DPRK is difficult but in essence a manufactured situation. US/eu said not a word when Pakistan and India became nuclear armed, nor did they say a word when Israel went nuke armed and only a child would assume that Japan does not have nukes or can assemble one or three literally overnight and quite possibly SK.
However, the creation of this crisis is in my opinion a misguided attempt to subvert DPRK and pound her in to submission. I don’t know what bright light thought this up but anyone with intelligence somewhat above that of an amoeba crawling through Protozoan mush would know that DPRK is not a place one wants to get in to a shooting war. The terrain is in many areas mountainous and difficult and DPRK has had 65 years to honeycomb the general area with tunnels and bases. If Afghan can, and has, given US/nato fits and after 15 years is still just as dangerous a s//thole as it was from day one, what in the world do these clowns think DPRK will be, a Sunday afternoon stroll in the park, the odd dust up against fourth world forces who can’t feed themselves?
In my opinion this whole crisis is to bring, by force if necessary, DPRK back together with ‘free’ South Korea and everyone will be one big happy family. This will, as mentioned in the post, put US forces directly on the Chinese and Russian borders with their much vaunted Aegis systems and I can guaranty you lots of bases and a bit more than a few dozen soldier types to keep the locals in line.
Russia and China will not tolerate this event. How VVP will stop it I have no idea. Both he and China have clearly stated there will be no war on their borders and from the looks of things someone in Five Points and/or Langley has gotten an earful from someone they better damned sight listen to.
At this moment there is dialog between the south and the north on this peninsula. One can hope the talks will come to some reasonable agreement but knowing US, no matter what agreement is within reach they will continuously change the format before anything is signed and delivered and up their demands for more concessions. I’ve got news for them, DPRK will have none of that. It’s going to be an interesting time, another crisis non-crisis instigated by Five Points. Figures.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
another us aircraft carrier in en route to NK dagger, it is said. Expected arrival in February.
NK is infantry nightmare, I have known vets from the war.
I agree with aus.
But the realities are not particularly important to those who live inside magical thinking. So anon expects ruins, vast ruins…worse that Syria/Iraqnamistan/etc
Anon
With today’s technologies, and according to CentCom ‘readily available on the commercial market’ in regards to the drone attack in Syria, a carrier is becoming more and more a fat and tempting target.
Apparently around Foggy Bottom there are two types of realty: Actual reality that most of the world goes by and ‘conceptual reality’ which seems to infect Five Points and Langley.
Auslander
In US navy circa 1962 the Landing Ship Tank..I was aboardone – a littoral ship, was knows as an “LST”. The enlisted said that “LST” stood for “large slow target”. That was in ’62 . They did have some nice guns, but they expected, as I recall, 80% casualties in the first 24 hours of combat – in 1962.
As Aus says, carriers are “tempting”…and with modern machines they are “large slow targets”
But sinking one, through easy now, would create a very dangerous perception inside the fantasy land…the sudden deconstruction of fantasy oft doth conjure up even worse evil. Lusitania, Pearl Harbor..make a list…
The Persian Xerxes knew when to fold ’em at Salamis. This empire, being a Sea-based one unlike the Persian Empire (land based) cannot afford a vast naval defeat, and yet seems bound to create one for itself. I honestly dread the event and agonize over the thousands of schmucks who will then be drowned. Sending another carrier is itself a criminal act, at least arguably, under US treaty law and UN Charter, and Kellogg-Briande, etc. Any worse, frankly stupid. If one sinks the T Man or whatever poor sod they prop up would have little option outside the atomic option of vast murder. Not nice. And not a solution either…
I read that about half of the people down at the shop in DC are taking psychotropic drugs for anxiety disorders…this may enhance their ability to live in fantasy. Actually I propose that this is a major reason for the idiotic actions and incoherent fantasy beliefs underlying the actions.
Consider this:
North Korea is an Pentagon Vassal State
11-1-16
In the end of the 1990’s I had the chance occasion to have a chat with the late James R. Lilley. Lilley was at the Davos World Economic Forum and by chance had sat at my dinner table together with a delegation from the China Peoples’ Liberation Army. As I was the only westerner at the table he struck up a conversation, and as he saw I was more than conversant in global politics, he began talking, perhaps more than he should have with one he did not know.
James R. Lilley was no outsider. A member, together with his close friend, George H.W. Bush, of the infamous Yale University Skull & Bones secret society, Lilley served some three decades at the CIA along with Bush. Both Lilley and Bush were US Ambassadors to China.
Lilley’s term in Beijing coincided with the May-June 1989 Tiananmen Square student protests. I have reason to believe he played the key US role in orchestrating that clash between thousands of protesting students and the Chinese government as one of Washington’s early Color Revolution attempts to destabilize communist China simultaneously with the CIA’s role in destabilizing the Soviet Union.
At the time of Tiananmen protests, the man who developed the handbook for color revolutions, Gene Sharp, of the Albert Einstein Institute, was in Beijing until the Chinese told him to leave, and George Soros’ Chinese NGO, the Fund for the Reform and Opening of China, after Tiananmen, was banned when Chinese security services found that the fund had links to the CIA.
This background is important to better situate who Lilley was – a consummate insider of the George Bush CIA “deep state” networks that try to remake the world to their liking. In our Davos talk, Lilley told me he had been furious at President G.H.W. Bush in the aftermath of Tiananmen for refusing to make a stronger denunciation of the Beijing government, that, for a massacre that he knew never took place.
In the event, in our Davos discussion we touched on events in Asia and the ongoing focus by Washington on North Korea’s nuclear program. Unexpectedly, Lilley made a remarkable statement to me. He said, “Simply put, at the end of the Cold War, if North Korea didn’t exist we would have to create it as an excuse to keep the Seventh Fleet in the region.” Shortly before our Davos discussion North Korea had launched a missile over Japan, causing huge anxieties across Asia.
https://journal-neo.org/2016/11/01/north-korea-is-an-pentagon-vassal-state/
Interesting but difficult to take seriously. An extraordinary claim as made by the author should require extraordinary evidence. The arguments made by the author:
The policies of North Korea are convenient for providing an excuse for the presence of US naval forces in Asia.
Kim spent time in the West.
North Korea’s policies have been to the detriment of China and Russia.
Are pretty thin. The author’s conclusion which somehow appears:
“It seems it wasn’t even necessary for the United States to “create North Korea.” Washington only had to cultivate the infantile personality of Kim Jong Un.”
This is completely unsupported by the information provided by the author, including the quote from Lilley. Lilley does not say that the US created North Korea. Moreover, Kim spent time in Switzerland not in the US.
In any case, the US does not need quasi-plausible excuses to deploy military force. Consider the example of Russia. They can use any excuse no matter how ridiculous, such as ABM deployments in Eastern Europe being for defense against Iran. Or otherwise, simply no excuse given at all.
Auslander:
I know you don’t mean this. But you did write it. And I quote:
” If Afghan can, and has, given US/nato fits and after 15 years is still just as dangerous a s//thole as it was from day one,” The key phrase is “s//thole.”
Afghanistan is not a “s//thole.” It is a lovely country, with a courageous people, who are difficult to conquer.
In modern times, Afghanistan has been invaded by the British, and, lately, by the Zionist controlled American Government. Russia, (the Soviet Union) did not quite invade Afghanistan, but attempted to support a government that was politically allied with them. Nevertheless, their intervention did not go well.
Ultimately, a unified Korea, under the control of its people, not foreign Bankers with their armies, is the moral solution, (and the solution favored by the Koreans themselves). Recall, Vietnam, and the United States were also divided on north-south lines.
The rights of all peoples to Sovereignty (even Zionist puppet United States), is inalienable. We, American Patriots have a debt to repay, by regaining our Honor, through Restoring Our Republic – the Republic that was destroyed in a hail of gunfire in Dallas, on November 22, 1963.
No countries are ‘shitholes.’ All are beautiful. The Ukraine (Kiev, the birthplace of Russia), and the Baltic Republics, must be liberated.
Russia and America, Palestine, and Korea, all nations restored, all religions respected, these are the goals of all humans.
Durruti
Durruti
I was speaking from the perspective of the grunt who is sent in to your country, or any country, to fight with or without a clear mission statement and with or without a crystal clear idea of why he is there.
You can take your beautiful country or any country on this rock and when two groups of armed men are fighting, they turn the place where they are fighting in to a ‘s//thole. The foreign grunt is getting shot at every day from all points of the compass and his personal concept is that country, region, city, village, farm, open field or mountain crest that he is standing in or on is a s//thole.
Having spoken to a fair number of veterans of both the American and SSSR army who fought there, their over riding comment is it’s a s//thole but on the other hand, those same veterans will tell you any country they have fought in is a s//thole and so will I. That is because as soldiers we are paid to break things and kill the enemy, pure and simple, and that vocation turns anywhere we fight to a damaged or destroyed place full of destroyed equipment and discarded ammo boxes, food packets, the perennial bits and pieces of cloth and rags that seem to magically appear everywhere there is fighting, debris from structures and the local flora and fauna, everything is destroyed. Hence the term ‘s//thole’ in regards to where we fight.
I will leave you with a truism, actually two.
When they are shooting at you when you leave, you lost.
You will find no one who hates war more than a warrior.
Auslander
Auslander,
I totally agree with what you have said about shitholes. In late Oct 66′ I landed at Ton Son nut (sp) north of Saigon and when the door of the 707 opened the air reminded me of the smell of pig shit on our Indiana farm. It was a smell WE created. I was Infantry and wounded at 5 months. I was in the “field” mostly and we shit where we stopped. In base camp at Cu Chi we crapped in half barrels and later burned it with kerosene. To grunts, everything is crap. BUT, I was immersed at times in some of the most beautiful landscapes AND people I’ve seen before or since.
I do hate war. When I was med-evacced to Japan my war was over. The shitholes of chemicals and un-exploded ordinance goes on for the Vietnamese.
IMO was the Republic destroyed in 1913 with the establishment of the Fed and federal income tax, two major destructive time bombs…
When Afghanistan was invaded in a friendly way, by hippies in the 60s, it was a wonderful country full of hospitable people.
No doubt it still is a great place, if we left it alone and stopped occupying the nation.
As an admirer of your writings, Ausländer, I respect your broad expertise, but I have a question about one of your statements here, and I think your answer might be of interest to others.
Hypothetically, in the event that the two Koreas were ever to be reunited on terms favourable to the South, why would you say that “This will, as mentioned in the post, put US forces directly on the Chinese and Russian borders …”?
Sr Escobar doesn’t argue for this point in his article, so I’m wondering why you think it would follow from re-unification.
If Kyrgyzstan was able to tell the U.S. to quit its military base in 2014 (forgoing the $60 million in annual rent the base was worth), why could a unified Korea not manage the same? Far more U.S. troops, yes, but Korea is also a far stronger country than Kyrgyzstan.
The excuse for the presence of the U.S. troops is the protection of S. Korea from possible DPRK threats, attacks or invasion. With re-unification, this excuse would be removed.
I suspect that the U.S. (whoever runs it) doesn’t want re-unification on any terms, since the present arrangement gives the U.S. its large, strategically important military presence on the peninsula.
I also suspect that not only Japan, but also China have a substantial interest in preserving the status quo, since a unified Korea would be a still more formidable economic rival than S. Korea currently is. Perhaps China can tolerate the U.S. presence for this reason, so long as the U.S. doesn’t threaten the stability of the standoff.
I may be committing some naive error here, but so be it – I’m more interested in hearing your answer if you can spare the time.
Your instincts are good, Rocio.
If the Koreas unite through mediation and negotiation, it will start as a federation with unifying goals to be achieved over time. The idea that NK would accept US soldiers within it is simply a non-starter. Although the US military would initially stay in SK, there would be a time line for their removal.
The only way there will be American military in NK is 1) direct invasion, or 2) the defeat of the North by the South. Some SK politicians actively hope for the second, built on the belief that “the regime will collapse” and SK will, to put it simplistically, walk in and pick up the pieces. That is why certain conservative SK governments are always hoping for the “collapse” of NK, and expecting it to arrive ever sooner through harsher sanctions, etc..
A direct invasion of NK by the Americans will be met by the Chinese, and the collapse of NK is far from obvious, not for the least reason that neither China nor Russia wants that collapse on its borders.
So the current situation is, in most respects, as you suggest, optimum for the US. The military of SK is integrated into and run by the military of the US, and the SK government is picking up an ever-greater share of the costs of its own defense (or occupation, depending on how you see it). The fear of NK is useful for arming SK with offensive weapons against both China and the Russians. The current SK government was fighting this “arming up” until the most recent crisis with NK, when it then decided to install the advance US positioning of its systems.
Nor does Japan want a unified Korea, let alone a unified Korea not occupied by the US. That would be an humiliation beyond words for the still militarily occupied and increasingly nationalistic Japan, which is also paying a larger share for its own ‘defense’. If the US loses Korea, it loses Japan soon after – count on it.
As for China, it plays the long game, which should be noted. Korea’s major trading partner through the first half of the twentieth century was Japan, its occupier through most of that time. The major partner, after WW2, then became the US. And now? Without a war or military occupation, the main trading partner of SK is now China, and the economic integration is increasing, not lessening.
So what does this mean? The US likes the current division of Korea and works to maintain it. As does Japan. The country that most favours unity is China, which sees it as inevitable in time, and wars are not necessary to achieve it.
Oh! and one last point. I traveled through SK and asked many young people how they felt about the nuclear program in the North. Most thought that the South should have such a program as well. None thought it a good idea to depend, in the long run, on America defending them. What they actually wanted was for the South to “take over” a “failed” North while maintaining its nuclear program.
Many thanks, Castellio, for a very helpful reply. As you know, I was only drawing tentative conclusions from sketchy information, so it was good to see the further details you were able to fill in, and the problem of Japanese humiliation had never occurred to me.
By now we have a reasonably accurate picture of what is happening. Trump sent the US Navy to the North Korean coast without too much planning, using threats to provoke regime change or a backing down of North Korea. It did not happen, leaving the US in an impossible situation, having to chose between open warfare – conventional or nuclear – or a retreat, which would be viewed by the world as a tactical defeat. The US can do neither.
The moment Trump sent the fleet to North Korea, South Korea initiated covert negotiations, which analysts did manage to detect. The last thing South Korea wants is to wage war against the North, as both countries have the same people. I think that even Washington has by now grasped that it cannot count on South Korea in a conventional war.
South Korea’s initiative was backed by Russia, which sent a delegation to North Korea, offering to mediate.
By now its pretty clear that it’s only a matter of time before the US comes to the negotiating table, in order to reach some sort of deal and save face. Trump gave the initiative to South Korea, after which he will most probably join.
The article is correct that China cannot tolerate a unified Korea with US troops present. Should this happen, the US would bring its missile systems right next to Russian and Chinese borders, seeking an advantage in a nuclear war. Washington knows this, just like it knows that China would not tolerate any initial strike against North Korea.
Should the US accept negotiations with North Korea, it would be tempted – with neocon backing – to present impossible demands to North Korea, and thus have an excuse for a military conflict. Not a good idea, as this would be a very dangerous course of action, spreading the conflict to both China and Russia. Then again, this might be exactly what the neocons want, still believing that both Russia and China can be defeated in a nuclear confrontation with minimal losses to the US. I trust this foolish attitude has been discarded.
These highly clumsy military and political moves must have left a very poor impression in Europe. Traditionally, European generals never held US generals in high esteem. The US performance in North Korea certainly did not contribute to them changing their minds. I trust both Washington and the Pentagon are paying attention to Europe, which is getting weary of Americas imperial wars. The time has come for them to stop, as Europe cannot be counted upon to back any more US wars, certainly not a war against Iran. As for a war against Russia with European backing ? Washington better not even dream about such a foolish undertaking. Two world wars have been fought on European soil, and expecting Europeans to accept a third world war would be unthinkable.
Euros need to understand that the US is not loading US/NATO troops and nukes onto the Russian border for “defensive” purposes. “Defense” does not require 800 foreign bases. It is preparation that assures an invasion and/or nuke attack on Russia could be called at any time. Maybe Euros don’t know how the neocons are running DC and are always eager for more wars, as long as they get to stay in DC and Manhattan.The neocons would love to see Europe again at war, and they only need a somewhat plausible story to excuse turning those troops/nukes on Russia in a lighting strike.
Underlying this whole discussion of the US and Asian countries is the assumption that the US must control what happens in this vast region. This is founded in the US pretension to world domination. What the hell is America doing in Asia in the first place? What right do they even have to be there at all? Why don’t they pick up all their toy battle ships and airplanes and dough boys and go home and tend to their own business – which very much needs their attention, and has a lot more to do with their well being than misguided adventures in world conquest? As long as this fundamental reality is not acknowledged and acted on, the world will only face ever worsening misery and violence. All kinds of temporary bandaids are never going to fix this basic source of our troubles. US leaders should read Thucydides, and learn what happened to the Athenian Empire from it’s hubris in launching an ill considered attack on the Sicilians.
Some of us do, but: Polynesian War is a must study for Emperial forces, or such is my understanding. Guess how it ended for Athens. Needless to say, observing current events is like watching a rerun of that war. Emperor being Athens.
Sorry, I do not know where the polynesian came from it was supposed to be Peloponnesian war.
Auto-incorrect on your computer. :-)
Well, here is a rather different take on US history than most USAn’s ever get.
https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2011/09/12/manifest-destiny-to-pnac/
You may recognize the author.
The point of the article is that the USA, right from the beginning, was created to strive for expansion of its’ borders. The culmination of this mindset is world domination, there can be only one ideology.
Yes, I recognize that authors name and it was worth reading.
Only herd animals and suckers believe in ideologies because they’re a form of collective, cloud cuckoo land. Or as Edward Bernays would put it a mass mind.
It appears that the culmination of a too much will to power mindset is manifest retardation
The devil always tempts one step too far, the unwary or ideologically driven will always take it.
Following the engineered collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States of America aspired to ‘rule the world’. It set out its plans with remarkable clarity. These are the PNAC papers, available for anyone to read.
All that has happened subsequently is fully is keeping with this Plan. Novel strategies and tactics have been employed such as ‘weaponising religious extremism (e.g. the Mujahideen, al Qaeda, etc.); employing NGOs as “Trojan Horses”; colour revolutions (too numerous to list); controlling global organisations such as UN, World Bank, WTO, ICC, IOC, FIFA etc.; imposing sanctions often with deadly effects (killing half-a-million children as a price worth paying); and, of course, operating the world’s reserve currency – the petrodollar – that enables it to “print money” making its international debt (and the cost of its wars) irrelevant.
The Plan has never changed. And all the time, Russia wanted to be friends and China a partner.
Interesting, Pepe doesn’t seem to know that Kim Jong-un is a CIA asset. No wonder he talks of a riddle shrouded in mystery. : )
Do You? Perhaps you have his signed agreement?
If he was he would have surrendered DPRK to the emperor long time ago.
There is a fourth and the most sensible option. South Korea to demand all US military forces to leave Korean Peninsula. I have no doubt that would be the most productive solution in order to secure a long term peace on the Peninsula. It is really all in the hands of South Koreans. They should show some guts. It would be a well worth move.
Anyone trying to kick the US out of South Korea would quickly learn who really controls that country. The only way out for South Korea is to sneak out, with hidden help from China. Will they pull it off? Unknown, but they have to try – the US is threatening to destroy them. Their survival actually depends on eventually easing the US out the door, ever so gradually, like a guest who has overstayed their visit.
Three countries want the US out of the Korean peninsula: North Korea, South Korea, and China. Let’s see what they can do to get it done……
You forgot Russia…
Correct. Russia and China are as one on this issue. The US encirclement of their nations is bad enough already.
north korea is the rogue state???!! Dprk has every right to nukes and self defense. period.
Here’s the issue. NK has no right to nuclear weapons. It has the right to self-defense and defense by all other nations not threatening it if it is attacked.
So, International law, UNSC declarations, and the history of the last 30 years has been consistent about no new nuclear states allowed in the club.
Stripping the weapons from them requires a complimentary defense against the US. This is what Russia and China are trying to form
President Moon is trying to work this “deal” with Putin. It’s called “9 Bridges” which are infrastructure projects for Korean Peninsula development.
So, a combination of missile defenses for North Korea, economic inclusion in Korean Peninsula economic development, and the inevitable removal of US troops from Korea is where this is heading.
Russia and China will be the guarantors of Peace and Security as well as the principal investors for economic development.
The key is President Moon. He is no friend of the US. Pray for him.
why doesn’t it have the right to nuclear weapons ? I don’t think your argument would foment well with the North Koreans.
I don’t know why all the other countries even agree that NK should not have weapons…which country has it attacked in the past century ?
The logic of the International Treaty and Rules of Non-Proliferation is for you to research.
Basically, the same logic as why you and I are not allowed to have WMDs to protect ourselves. The danger to so many others from proliferation of massive weapons of nuclear, chemical and biological basis is the reason.
North Korea is leveraging possession by threatening everyone, not just the Hegemon. They are a danger to tens of millions of Chinese, millions of Russians, tens of millions of South Koreans, tens of millions of Japanese, in order to “counter threaten” the population of the US/Hegemon.
It is recklessness in behalf of seeking security.
You may think otherwise. The rational world agrees with non-proliferation and denuclearization which is the goal of Russia, China and all those positioned as threats to North Korea. This convergence of all to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula is the solution to removing the US from Korea and weaken its Asia Pacific/Indo-Pacific hegemony.
Imagine if Ukraine got nukes or Romania or Poland or Myanmar or Somalia, etc.
It is unthinkable. North Korea more than those nations. Why? Because it produces enormous leverage against China and Russia. An accident or outbreak of war would stop Multi-Polarity evolution, ruin BRI and Eurasian development.
@Ann. Imagine if Israel got nukes. Just kidding, but you see how dangerous the world would be if every little country were to threaten to go nuclear every time they look like losing one of their little wars. Especially in a volatile region like the Sykes-Picot Middle East.
Weird, “the world would be” dangerous if…? My good doctor, the world is already super dangerous because of the possession, pervious use and proposed use of these weapons. If my house is on fire except for one room and you threaten to throw a match in it, then I suppose you add a slight element of “danger”. This analogizes your point. Though Ann’s point needn’t be discounted, the only solution to the nuclear issue is global disarmament!!!! How is it that this isn’t the main focal point of any issue pertaining to the development, possession or proposed use of nuclear weapons?
Isn’t the “Sykes-Picot” stuff a bit overblown?
“Sykes-Picot Agreement, also called Asia Minor Agreement, (May 1916), secret convention made during World War I between Great Britain and France, with the assent of imperial Russia, for the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. The agreement led to the division of Turkish-held Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine into various French- and British-administered areas. Negotiations were begun in November 1915, and the final agreement took its name from its negotiators, Sir Mark Sykes of Britain and François Georges-Picot of France.
Its provisions were as follows: (1) Russia should acquire the Armenian provinces of Erzurum, Trebizond (Trabzon), Van, and Bitlis, with some Kurdish territory to the southeast; (2) France should acquire Lebanon and the Syrian littoral, Adana, Cilicia, and the hinterland adjacent to Russia’s share, that hinterland including Aintab, Urfa, Mardin, Diyarbakır, and Mosul; (3) Great Britain should acquire southern Mesopotamia, including Baghdad, and also the Mediterranean ports of Haifa and ʿAkko (Acre); (4) between the French and the British acquisitions there should be a confederation of Arab states or a single independent Arab state, divided into French and British spheres of influence; (5) Alexandretta (İskenderun) should be a free port; and (6) Palestine, because of the holy places, should be under an international regime”. It actually was establishing transitional ‘zones of influence’ until the new states that would emerge from the partition of the Ottoman Empire could build the institutions of a sovereign state. It was the Bolshevik Revolution and the treasonous Treaty of Brest-Litovsk which withdrew Russia from the equation and denounced all obligations assumed by the Imperial Government by ‘secret conventions’. Russia was not losing the war in Turkey (she was not losing the war on the European front either). On the contrary, and that raised the alarm in the English circles ogling the oil of Russia, Iran and Mesopotamia. And no ‘Balfour Declaration’ would have been possible without the elimination of Russia. That’s one of the reasons why the British pushed for the abdication of the ‘Bloody’ Czar who killed ‘Joos’ and was intent to kill ‘6 million’ more! (the reason why America did not intervene in the war until the elimination of the Czar requested by the Schiff-Warburg cartel).
hey buddy – I guess this is the irrational peanut gallery speaking – if you can do it ?? why not ???
As far as I know, other States normally have no say in which weapons a particular State develops. One exception is a loss of sovereignty such as a defeat in war. Other examples are treaties into which States voluntarily enter to mitigate the risks of conflict. The most relevant being the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NNPT). Under that treaty, non-nuclear States renounce the development of nuclear weapons. However, North Korea is no longer a signatory to the NNPT and cannot therefore be in violation. If North Korea’s nukes pose a perceived threat, the obvious solution is serious negotiations which recognize the legitimate security concerns of all parties. The US has always dismissed the idea that it poses a military threat to North Korea. This precludes any serious negotiations.
Rights do not exist in the Westphalian sense since Law ceded to Power with the Bush 43 affair, though Yugoslavia might be cited as well. Since that abandonment we are left with Augustinian Law. I have posted Agi Khan’s law review article which cautions the US stooges aka leaders about the danger of this course. He’s at Washburn near Topeka.
http://www.jurist.org/forum/forumnew104.php
An portion under fair use, though he was kind enough to email me a full copy long ago.
“For centuries, international law has been anchored in the theory of contracts. Treaties are explicit contracts among states, but even customary international law, at least in its formative stages, is founded on consent and is derived from voluntary state practices.
All along, powerful nations have influenced international law. Yet in modern times no single state – no single sovereign – has claimed the authority to make laws for the rest of the world. International law has, since the Second World War, admittedly developed some coercive elements in its genetic structure, but it nonetheless remains, both in its essence and legitimacy, the law of partnership. This jurisprudence might change, however, if George Walker Bush is successful in crowning himself as the Austinian Sovereign.
In 1832, the English legal theorist John Austin articulated his famous concept of the Sovereign, in his celebrated work The Province of Jurisprudence Determined. �Supreme power limited by positive law, � he declared, �is a flat contradiction in terms.� The Sovereign may impose laws and morals on himself, but these �principles or maxims� are mere guides; the Sovereign is under no obligation to be constrained by these self-imposed limitations. The Sovereign has the ultimate authority to “abrogate the law at pleasure.� If the Sovereign is bound to observe the law, Austin argued, he is no longer the Sovereign. On the basis of this logic, Austin concluded, that a departure by a Sovereign from any law is within the domain of his authority, and the inferiors are under a legal obligation to obey the Sovereign.
President Bush has gone to war on Iraq without the approval of the UN Security Council. The question remains whether the United Nations, has now, in the President�s own words, become �irrelevant.� President Bush�s unilateralism has offended many nations, including China, Russia, and France. The President�s departure from the United Nations Charter, however, makes perfect sense in the domain of Austinian jurisprudence, as it does in the realm of power.
In the realm of power, international relations flow from the dynamics of superior military and economic power. In the Security Council, Cameroon has a vote but no power. France has a veto but its power is not the same as that of the United States. Therefore, the logic of power would dictate that permanent and non-permanent members of the Security Council submit to the United States might rather than play games with the mechanics of voting. The five vetoes have collapsed into one, recogn…”
Read it for yourself.
Ann, and sorry Larch but I agree with Ann.
I am going to play Devil’s Advocate here.
Scenario 1
Russia of say 140mln people is attacked by Nato of say 1Bln people in conventional war, does Russia stand a chance to win this conflict? I would say no. Now, Rusia has big but not bigger arsenal of nuclear weapons paired with an edge in delivery systems, what happens. Nato runs around Russia’s borders and howls not daring to attack. Emperor sanctions Russia, but thanks to China’s turn-around attitude with regards to Russia, Russia suffers but survives.
Scenario 2.
DPRK has been sanctioned to death for ever. Being threatened every tine and all the time by the Emeror. DPRK knows pretty well, that international law does not exist, as the Emperor says the law is what “I say”.
So the only way to exercise it’s independence is to have a deterrent. DPRK knows that in the event of conflict, it’s going to have it’s “A$$” nuked, but the Emperor knows, the chance of DPRK nuking him in reverse are small, but never the less they exist. Who wants to turn one or more states to wasteland. Emperor thinks: how do you explain that to the “We the people”?
Now, Russia and China do not want the have parts of their territory turned to wasteland because Emperor nukes DPRK, and this is why they are opposed the idea of DPRK having nukes. They say we will protect you. And I say Oh really I would want to see them going to war with Emperor for DPRK. I say, it will not happen. If for some slim chance this happens their “A$$es” get nuked anyway.
So, I say DPRK is fine with nukes and this way Emperor will make few macho postures and go home filling good.
Euros need to understand that the US is not loading US/NATO troops and nukes onto the Russian border for “defensive” purposes. “Defense” does not require 800 foreign bases. It is preparation that assures an invasion and/or nuke attack on Russia could be called at any time. Maybe Euros don’t know how the neocons are running DC and are always eager for more wars, as long as they get to stay in DC and Manhattan.The neocons would love to see Europe again at war, and they only need a somewhat plausible story to excuse turning those troops/nukes on Russia in a lighting strike.
What? I don’t remember taking issue with any of your comments in the past, but “no right” to nuclear weapons for NK because of international “law”, UNSC “declarations” and history? That’s quite bizarre! Perhaps you overlooked this post yesterday on ICH – http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/48549.htm, along with the fact that the U.S., england, israel and several other “western states” have zero regard for international law, that this law and the declarations you speak of were enacted/dictated by the nuclear club members who have no right by way of logic or reason to declare that another party cannot have them. That is to say nothing of israel’s, Pakistan’s or India’s possession of these weapons in violation of the same principles of which you speak. I could go on and on, but simply put, the only way to resolve the global nuclear issue is for every country to destroy their nuclear weapon stockpiles under the auspices of an organization that isn’t controlled with impunity by the U.S.
Larchmonter445
Your major points are quoted & numbered. And will be answered (briefly).
1. “Here’s the issue. NK has no right to nuclear weapons. It has the right to self-defense and defense by all other nations not threatening it if it is attacked.”
2. “So, International law, UNSC declarations, and the history of the last 30 years has been consistent about no new nuclear states allowed in the club.”
3. “Stripping the weapons from them requires a complimentary defense against the US. This is what Russia and China are trying to form”
Numbered replies.
1. Nice of you to determine which nations may & may not possess Nuclear weapons. The Zionist puppet Americans may have them, but not their victims. You concede to the DP Republic of Korea the right of “self-defense,” but you limit their weaponry. The Koreans must defend themselves against a large & powerful Nuclear Armed Zionist puppet, but with their hands tied behind their backs.
2. Yes, you insist that we must all follow the orders and precedents imposed by the Zionist imperialist dominated “club.”
3. You also offer the people of the DP Republic of Korea (suggest that they rely on), “a complimentary defense against the US.” And the Moon is composed of Green Cheese. The peoples of Yugoslavia, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, Vietnam, Korea, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Palestine, (among other nations), bear witness to the efficacy – the reliability of such “complimentary defense.” Their countries are shattered, and bear wounds that will take decades to repair. Vietnam is still recovering from a war that ended 43 years ago.
There is only one reliable defense, that of a People-in-Arms (the best arms attainable).
Let the Zionist imperialists disarm first (let the neighborhood bully unclench his fists), then allow the Koreans to
settle their affairs – without the Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.
America’s last Constitutional President, John F. Kennedy, planned to disarm the Zionist land Thieves (specially of their Nuclear Bombs), as a key to arranging a Peace in the Middle East. His plans were one of the major reasons he was assassinated, and the American Republic overthrown, And we know who the terrorist murderers were, as their descendants continue the cover up!
Ann, has it right.
“I don’t know why all the other countries even agree that NK should not have weapons…which country has it attacked in the past century ?”
With all due respect, mix in some knowledge with your opinion and useless attack on me.
https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2315&context=tcl
The Vineyard does have a standard of scholarship, be it uncertified.
Arguing from a stance of emotion and ignorance does not carry well here.
Study a bit.
The main objectives of US Foreign Policy, from PNAC to FPI and NSS are the same: preventing the “rising of resurgent powers, including China and Russia”, of “other autocracies that violate the rights of their citizens”, of “rogue states that work with each other in ways inimical to our interests and principles, and that sponsor terrorism and pursue weapons of mass destruction”, of “failed states that serve as havens for terrorists and criminals and spread instability to their neighbors.” Preventing the threat posed by a state or combination of states that might challenge the “benevolent global hegemony” of the “world’s pre-eminent power”and its suzerain, Israel. Actually, the wording should be “what challenges Israel and its henchman, their overseas colony that goes by the name of USofA”. The policies of this colony have only one objective: what’s good for the Jews.
Ha,ha,
It is like Churchill’s famous words about Russia: ‘It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
The key to the riddle of US policy is: ‘Israel national interest’ (the Greater Israel, of course)
Regarding the announcement of north-south direct talks, is the u.s. being sidelined in the negotiations involving DPRK?
Looks that way. Same-same in Syria. Foggy Bottom seems to be not pleased
A
Yeah, I was reminded about how it was done in Syria too.
yeah, that makes sense – I guess I just like rogues – but I like Kim – and I notice the picture of him here on the video is really starting to look like a man, not a boy.
No chance. War comes because Russia must be stretched spread eagle for the assault to Come.
(mod-to note: Statement deleted Rule #2) A feminized, homosexualized and transgenderized US military will do what?
A) Stretch Russia spread eagled for the assault to come?
B) Go around raping men and shooting women?
C) Be so unmotivated, that they’ll make Napoleon and Hitler a tragedy for
Russia and America a farce?
That highway to the Korean border can also integrate North Korea into the Eurasian trade network.
Why why why has not Beijing or/and Moscow offered NK a nuclear umbrella to match that of the South offered by the US?
Wouldn’t this have solved NK’s rethoric from a cornered position that the MSM portrays as agressive?