Foreign Policy Diary – Egypt after the Russian plane crash

I don’t think I’ve seen a breakdown on Egypt posted yet.So I’ll give my thinking on it.Egypt is by far the largest in population.And I believe most important Arab state in the World.They are “Arab” really in name only.As unlike some “Arab” states,they are mostly made up of a population “Arabized” culturally over the centuries. But with a strong “national” feeling,as “Egyptians” still.Between 80-85% of the population is Muslim (mostly Sunni).With the other 15-20% native or immigrant Christians.The figures are “massaged” by governments in power so its difficult to have exact figures on the population.But I think the 15% to 85% split is probably close.The Christians are from the old native Egyptian population.And one of the (if not the oldest) Christian group around.While most of the Muslim population is also made up of converts from the native Egyptian population.There is also an element of descent from Arab immigrants that have moved to Egypt over almost 2,000 years (even before the rise of Islam).And intermarriage between the two Muslim peoples is very common.Less so today between Christians and Muslims.Though in general over a thousand years of living together has led to acceptance of each other by both communities in the main.The Islamists have tried to change that.And there is terrorism directed at the Christian minority.But nothing (so far) like in some countries infested by the terrorists.

Up until Sadat sold Egypt out to the West she was one of the USSR’s main friends in the MENA. His sell out may have helped the Egyptian elite to get richer.But it brought no improvement to the average Egyptian.In fact it made their lives worse off (and cost him his life later on).The key to the MENA and no area more so than Egypt is the economy.The EU is whining about the refugee’s flooding into Europe (and rightly so).But has done nothing to solve the causes of that flood.Some of it is caused by terrorism,true.But most of it is economic in cause.Commonsense should tell them that alone.People don’t flee in those numbers (especially when many aren’t from countries at war) if they have hope in their own country.Terrorism feeds on despair of the future to get its recruits.But if the majority of people see that they have a future at home.Instead of fleeing to Europe they would be flocking to join the army and stop the terrorists from ruining that future.If the EU wants to stop the influx,build the economies in the MENA and convince people there they have a future in their own land.Certainly terrorism must be fought and defeated.But to do that its the further recruits that must be stopped.Give them hope of jobs and a livelihood and you do that.

So where does Egypt fit in there? The “battle for Egypt” won’t be won on the battlefields.It will be won or lost on the “job field”.For a “developing country” Egypt has a large educated population.And sits at the crossroads of Asia and Africa.Its location controls the main parts of the Red Sea,and is important to the entire Eastern Mediterranean,once you add in the Suez Canal,its “very” important to the Mediterranean.So whichever “side” controls Egypt controls much of the MENA. Hopefully Russia and China realize how important Egypt is for them.If they could/would invest heavily in building Egypt’s economy.That would tear Egypt away from the West.And as importantly,tear Egypt away from the Gulf Princes.Egypt needs money,its as simple as that.And whoever helps them with that will come out on top.The Egyptian secular rulers haven’t got much in common with the anti-Muslim West or with the Wahhabi Saudis.But they need the money that those groups give them.Whoever offers more wins Egypt,again its that simple.