If you are having trouble viewing this video, go to the Youtube version at https://www.youtube.com/user/crimeanfront/videos
Saker Message:
If you are having trouble viewing this video, go to the Youtube version at https://www.youtube.com/user/crimeanfront/videos
re: Caucasus: Jeez. it sure looks like Nagorno Karabakh is already surrounded–not a very defensible position from the get go. Can it somehow be made profitable for the Azerbaijanis not to attack it?
That’s the problem,Karabakh,was always an Armenian populated land inside an Azerbaijani populated area.Historically all that area was Armenian but over the centuries only Karabakh kept its Armenian heritage and population.While also through the centuries most “Azerbaijanis” converted from Christianity to Islam and became a different ethnic group.Most of those people while speaking today a “Turkic” language have an ethnic background related to Armenians and Georgians.And the land in the past was the Christian Kingdom of “Albania”.The name Azerbaijan is comparatively new.It is an extremely complicated problem.With no good and easy “win-win” solution to it (at least none I know of).
That map is quite misleading. The actual territory that Nagorno-Karabakh contains, and has contained since the ceasefire, is much larger. And more secure.
It is already not profitable for Azerbaijan not to attack as they are likely to lose badly and they could easily lose a lot of territory, such as Nakhichevan or have Armenia get to the Russian border.
Aliyev has been playing with fire by keeping the fires of this mess going. His position has weakened substantially, and Armenia’s has strengthened. With Iran coming in from the cold, Azerbaijan is looking at even more trouble.
thanks so much South Front…all these things are new to me…very interesting part of the world…
I must admit, I try to not think about the “Trans-Caucasian” region.It is a terribly frustrating situation.A land of dozens of language and ethnic groups.All three of the countries there have overlapping claims to lands of the other.With ethnic minorities of their peoples in each others state.And historic sites of all three in the others lands.At one time sections of,or all, the lands were ruled by one or the other of them.I really don’t envy Russia’s situation there.If she sides with one,see is damned by the other.The best solution would have been if they had remained a part of the Russian Empire/USSR,with autonomy status.And free movement of peoples between them.But local nationalism reared its ugly head (helped by the US) and destroyed that idea.And today,I don’t think Russia wants anything to do with that idea again.But she is still doomed by location to have to deal with the problems of the region.The next best idea, was that from the end of WWI,a Federal Trans-Caucasian Republic.Sort of a mini version of the RF or USSR.In which the different minorities would be given autonomy in a single state.But I doubt without a realist approach by those governments that could ever happen.As it is today,the best Russia can do is what she is doing.Just try to keep the peace continuing.
I would submit that Russia needs a stronger Armenia, and one with access to Russia. This could mean ending the blockade through Nakhichevan and opening the railway to Russia, or perhaps letting the Armenian area of Georgia rejoin Armenia and reopening the Russian military base there, or getting Georgia to agree to a corridor directly to Armenia.
A stronger Armenia would put pressure on Georgia and Azerbaijan to not fight Russia. It would also make Russia’s eternal issues with Turkey be more balanced, as the threat of Turkey and Azerbaijan joining up to carve up Armenia would go away. If Armenia got some territory that pipelines passed through, that would be even better. This is not that impossible, as the Armenian area of Georgia is where the pipeline enters Turkey.
For those interested in Caucasian issues for Russia, a good blog is:
http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/10/with-russian-forces-fully-entrenched-in.html
More than doubtful.It would be nice for Armenia.But I strongly,strongly,doubt it.
That is a region where borders change, and, unfortunately, people get expelled. Armenia was pressured to not do further damage to Azerbaijan at the end of the major war twenty years ago, or at least that is the widespread view in Armenia. In any case, Azerbaijan has serious problems, and Turkey and its Kurds are now in play, which includes the area around Mount Ararat, next to Yerevan. To think that the current borders are solid is most optimistic, even without any machinations by the Anglo-Zionist Empire.
Turning the Armenian area of Georgia into an autonomous region and reopening the Russian base is most feasible. All it takes is the Georgian government to feel that being a friend of Russia is more profitable than being an enemy. At the same time, better access from Russia to Armenia would likely be agreed. Granted, this is not changing borders.
The idea that Russia would control the Crimea seemed beyond impossible a few years ago. Things in the Caucasus are much more up in the air. Russia already “created” Abkhazia and South Ossetia as de facto states, and has many reasons to play good cop/bad cop with both Georgia and Azerbaijan to get them to drop any Western dreams. Let us have better access to Armenia, and the vital Russian base there, or …
The situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been one my main worries since the whole Ukraine crisis begun.
I think it is the most doable spoiling attack that the AZ Empire can come up against Russia while the Syrian operation is under way.
They tried in Chechnya and failed. Their attack on Donbass has been largely neutralized, and I can’t really see any serious options for destabilization in Central Asia.
The situation between the triangle Armenia-Azerbaijan and Russia is a nasty one. Russia has supported Armenia in the past in their war to keep Nagarno-Karabach, hence the Azeris have a grudge against Russia. To make matters worse, Azerbaijan is infinitely richer than Armenia (oil & gas) and hence more confident they could win a military fight against Armenia if Russia is fighting on other fronts.
The only reason I can see for Azerbaijan to behave (in the short-term) is them fearing a massive retaliation on the part of the Russian Army. In the longer-run, Azerbaijan should be lured into the EEU.
Here’s hoping. This front is making me extremely nervous.
My worry too.That issue unresolved is an open wound.And its easy for the Empire to stir the violence there.One idea I can think of for a “short term fix” is for Russia to talk with the Azerbaijani leaders.And remind them how the US always betrays their allies in the end.If they cooperate with the US.As soon as they aren’t needed the US will “color revolution” them.And put in a group more loyal to the US.And that the Wahhabi fanatics the US wants to bring there hate Shia as much or more than Christians.And since the Azerbaijanis are Shia,they would turn on them in a heartbeat.Maybe the Azerbaijani leaders,for self survival would see reason.
If Stalin as commissar of nationalities of the soviet Union,has not given Nagorno-Karabakh with the historically Armenian territories of Kelbadjar and Kubatli (at the time inhabited by many Armenians) this problem would not have existed today. This was done in order to please Kemalist Turkey.The same logic was applied in the case of Nakhijevan in 1921 according to the Treaty of Moscow. Lenin-Kemal agreement took away from Soviet Armenia Nakhijevan region (50%Armenians and 50%Turks ans some kurds) and put under the tutorship of Soviet Azerbaijan. The consequence was the complete de-Armenianization of Nakhijevan during the Soviet period and after the the independance of Azerbaijan, destruction of most of Armenian cultural monuments and churches in order to erase any trace of Armenians. This was and it is still part of Turkish plan to have control of South Caucasus, should Russian power disappears from the region. This peerspective will make clear as to why there is a conflict between Armenians and Azeris, and Turks behind the scene.
This message is answer to uncle Bob. The word azerbaijani people was carved by the invading Ottoman Turkish armies in 1918, for the clear objective to take over later on the Iranian Azerbaijan5 where the true Azerbaijanis live, as an Iranian people and not as a turkic people. This christian azerbaijani conversion to islam is a historical fabrication created by todays historians in Baku in order to lay claim on these lands as descendants of Caucasian Albanians, with whom turkic Azerbaijanis have no connection. on the other hand, Armenian of Karabagh and surrounding lands are the true natives of the area. As for the Caucasian albanians, some of their descendants are still there as part of minorities of Azerbaijan, like lezgins, Udis , Tates and others. Azerbaijan is spreading historical falsification in the world in order to justify its claim on these lands. This is part of panturkic plan of turkification of transcaucasian territories and their native inhabitants, who are not turkic. You should be aware of these attempts in order not to fall intheir trap.
.
Antranig–Thanks for your historical input. I studies the Caucus & Transcaucasia during the 1990s, but was limited to only English language sources, mostly late 19th century British sources. My Russian never got good enough to read such sources, and I’m illiterate in Turkish, Persian and Arabic. So, what if any contemporary English language sources are available that you’d recommend for those wishing to avoid the trap you mention?
Yes,except the “Turkic” peoples of both Azerbaijan’s aren’t really “Turks” (some are its true).The majority of those people are assimilated local ethnic groups “Tukified” over the centuries.Its simple to see pictures of the real Turks and pictures of those peoples to see that.Now of course, they consider themselves “Turks”,and that is the important thing.But still its an error to dismiss them as purely “invaders”,they aren’t.I never base my opinions on propaganda.I study the history of countries and then form an opinion.Just as in the Iranian Azerbaijani regions you mentioned.Long after the Iranians took those areas back into their state the people spoke an Iranian language.But over the centuries ,slowly, “Turkic” influence from assimilation of the peoples changed them.And by the last century most people began to think of themselves as “Azerbaijani Turks”.The religious element was a big factor with that.And most of Iran’s ruling class of the time were from “Turkic” tribes.Including the Shah’s themselves.So all that, spread Turkish cultural influence among those people.Even though Islam had come much earlier to the Caucasus regions it wasn’t until the 1500-1600’s that most of the people started to adopt Islam and leave Christianity.There was very little Christian missionary work among those peoples.So their Christianity was superficial to begin with.And the Muslim authorities put an effort into missionary work among those peoples.The reason most Armenians and Georgians remained Christian (not all by any means.Many of the Muslim Turks and Kurds of today have backgrounds of those peoples).Had less to do with Christianity than it did with nationalism.In the past if you became Muslim you pretty much ceased to be Armenian or Georgian.Religion was tied to nationality there at the time.Its always been the case in history that “Imperial” peoples have always assimilated others to their ethnic groups as they spread their power.Armenians and many Kurds (maybe most,historians are divided on that) are “Iranic” peoples.And if it wasn’t for religion,Armenians would have melted into an Iranian state.But their adopting Christianity, and most other, (not all) Iranic peoples adopting Islam.Divided them from each other over the centuries.That allowed Armenians to survive as a separate ethnic people.The history and ethnic peoples of that region are extremely complicated.Which is way no easy solution has ever been found in solving the problems there.And it makes the peoples there always think they are the ones “right” and the others are always “wrong” on the issues.
I guess money’s no problem when it comes to the military? Oh, were in the nether world of fictitious capital now….little wonder they have to brutally rape and plunder hard resources to balance accounts. Economically, America has devolved to a previous stage of capitalism-primitive accumulation. Those dollars have to represent something of value. Strip the American Dollar of it’s status as reserve currency and the entire edifice comes tumbling down. Broke, going for Broke. Doubling Down on PNAC and Full Spectrum Dominance or Perish. This is the frenzy of capitalism in crisis and a “Ruling Class” gone Berserk. Caligula has nothing on these Vampires. They and their snarly minions, who are LEGION, thirst for blood.
To arms dear friends, to arms. We prisoner’s in the Belly of the Beast Salute You!
RR
Thursday, April 19, 2012
by Greg Palast – Exclusive for EcoWatch.org
Thursday, 19. April, 2012
Two years before the Deepwater Horizon blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, another BP off-shore rig suffered a nearly identical blow-out, but BP concealed the first one from the U.S. regulators and Congress.
BP Cover-up ‘They Knew.’
Part 1
This week, EcoWatch.org located an eyewitness with devastating new information about the Caspian Sea oil-rig blow-out which BP had concealed from government and the industry.
The witness, whose story is backed up by rig workers who were evacuated from BP’s Caspian platform, said that had BP revealed the full story as required by industry practice, the eleven Gulf of Mexico workers “could have had a chance” of survival. But BP’s insistence on using methods proven faulty sealed their fate.
http://www.gregpalast.com/bp-coverup-they-knew/ Volkswagen has nothing on these Bandits.
Watch out for CIA sponsored activities in this area-that goes from everything from terrorist attacks to color revolutions to assassination. The Donbas should be on high alert for terrorist attack all of South Russia according to Webster Tarpley whom many are familiar with. Even inside Russia. There are many criminal even rogue elements in the USA who face is revealed by people like John McCain and General Betrayus as he is known in the West.
Yours,
RR