by Pepe Escobar for the Asia Times
From the Bab al-Mandab to the strait of Malacca, from the strait of Hormuz to the strait of Lombok, all the way to the key logistical hub of Diego Garcia 2,500 miles southeast of Hormuz, the question pops up: How will the unpredictable new normal in Washington – which is not exactly China-friendly – affect the wider Indian Ocean?
At play are way more than key chokepoints in an area that straddles naval supply chains and through which also flows almost 40% of the oil that powers Asian-Pacific economies. This is about the future of the Maritime Silk Road, a key component of the Chinese One Belt, One Road (OBOR), and thus about how Big Power politics will unfold in a key realm of the Rimland.
India imports almost 80% of its energy from the Middle East via the Indian Ocean. Thus, for Delhi, protection of supply chains must be the norm, as in the current drive to develop three carrier battle groups and at least 160 naval vessels, including submarines, before 2022. That also implies boosting a cooperation agreement with the nations bordering the strait of Malacca – Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia – and developing military infrastructure in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
China for its part advances a relentless economic / infrastructural drive from Myanmar to Pakistan, from Bangladesh to the Maldives, from Sri Lanka to Djibouti – a counterbalance to the impossibility of fully implementing “escape from Malacca”, the complex, multi-pronged Beijing strategy for diversifying energy supplies.
The privileged infrastructure connectivity hub remains the megaport of Gwadar in the Arabian Sea – which will be controlled for the next 40 years by a Chinese company. Gwadar is the naval destination of the US$46 billion (and counting) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) originating in Xinjiang, which will be the economic New Silk Roads game-changer in South Asia.
This implies everyone jumping aboard the new Karakoram highway, currently under construction in Pakistan’s sublimely mountainous northern Gilgit-Baltistan, with the military watching over a frantic maze of Chinese engineers.
Islamabad/Rawalpindi took no prisoners in offering a sprawling support system to prevent possible interference by Uighur separatist groups. For all practical purposes, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is now focused on resident Uighurs in Pakistan like a laser, while not forgetting Balochistan’s separatist groups, who, with the right “incentive”, might also derail CPEC further on down the road.
Beijing treads a very fine – soft power – line. Islamabad offered the Chinese Navy a base in Gwadar, but was politely declined: the graphic message would totally freak out both Delhi and Washington. Gwadar will be inevitably developed over time as a trade hub for a vast swathe of South Asia, but Delhi’s anxieties relate to its virtually ready-to-roll capability for monitoring the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean and the US Navy in the Persian Gulf.
Go North-South, young Eurasian
Gwadar happens to be not far away from Chabahar, in Iran – which is being designed as an Indian trade hub towards the markets of Central Asia, connecting India with Afghanistan via Iran and thus bypassing Pakistan. That’s the Southern – or Indian – Silk Road in action. Gwadar and Chabahar are the top two new hubs bound to link the Indian Ocean to central Eurasia, with Iran, India and Russia featuring as key members of the slowly-developing but potentially spectacular International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Moreover, Iran, China and India may all eventually converge towards a free trade zone with the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU), as the CPEC for its part will allow Russia and Central Asia to boost trade with the Indian Ocean Rimland.
Then there’s the fascinating case of Sri Lanka. According to the
Institute of Policy Studies in Sri Lanka, from 2006 to 2015 China invested over US$5 billion, with Sri Lanka’s minister of development strategies and international trade adding that China has pledged over US$10 billion more up to 2019.
The key project is the deep-sea port at Hambantota – plus an international airport in nearby Mattala. Sri Lanka struck a deal with China Merchants Port Holdings at the end of 2016 to sell 80% of Hambantota for US$1.1 billion and to lease 15,000 acres of nearby land for 99 years.
Needless to add, the proverbial “concern” with this Chinese win-win was registered in both Delhi and Washington. The possibility that China will eventually acquire a permanent naval military base in the Indian Ocean is a full-time obsession of US Think Tankland. Colombo, though, has always been adamant: Chinese-financed infrastructure does not imply basing rights for the Chinese Navy.
In fact, any Chinese move – from leasing a Maldives island for 50 years for US$4 million to building a military base in Djibouti (officially a base for “technical and logistical support” to the Chinese Navy) by the end of 2017, close to the Americans and the French, is a source of “concern”.
Where China in South Asia is concerned, the Pentagon / Naval War College always fall back to the “string of pearls” threat. Especially now with the Maritime Silk Road, a “string of pearls” is a categorical imperative for Beijing. But that does not imply Chinese military hegemony.
For Beijing, conscious of cost-efficiency, the logistical nightmare of maintaining naval bases in foreign lands far, far away from the Middle Kingdom is definitely not a win-win. So the notion of having a Chinese carrier battle group in the Indian Ocean ready to confront the Indian Navy is idle geostrategic speculation. The very long game is all about establishing key trade nodes for the Maritime Silk Road.
I got a naval offer you can’t refuse
It will be fascinating to watch how mechanisms such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) develop.
Let’s see what Delhi – deeply committed to an official Make in India campaign – may offer in the way of “free” markets to Nepal (which is leaning towards China), Bangladesh (always in a complex relationship with Pakistan) and Sri Lanka.
Since 2008, China has been India’s largest trading partner. China and India will be involved in deeper cooperation inside the BRICS, and in managing the New Development Bank (NDB). Moreover, India is about to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The notion of Delhi reigning supreme in the Indian Ocean is misguided. From now on, with the emphasis on the Maritime Silk Road, it will be more a case of serious India-China economic competition and/or cooperation, as both countries invest in the protection/expansion of their extensive, complex supply chains.
The Pentagon, under James “Mad Dog” Mattis, will, of course, be watching closely. India’s NDTV recently reported that the US Pacific Command had tacitly admitted the obvious: that the US and India are sharing intel on Chinese warships and submarines in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, there was a hint that Beijing could deploy a carrier battle group in the Indian Ocean today if it saw fit.
It’s unlikely Beijing will accept the challenge – just to be slapped with more charges of “Chinese aggression” and “threatening freedom of navigation”. Better invest in non-stop, cumulative Maritime Silk Road deals.
Overall a good article by Pepe.
I wish somebody could convey to him just how discredited NDTV is for most of India’s native language speakers: they’re commonly referred to as “desh dhrohi samachar/news/TV “; ie lit “anti-national news/TV” = “traitor/5th columnist TV/news”. It’s a channel that was associated with US multinational GE, and was for years an MSNBC/NBC affiliate. They are the epitome of groveling Anglophile Liberal Western Delhite aholes that spend their dysfunctional lives aping Western Malthusian liberals. They often flog Western brands such as Harley Davidson in their reports (showing just how out of touch they are given that a Harley bikes are a Western luxury item that over 95% of population cannot afford) while ridiculing Chinese and Indian brands. They are totally out of touch with the general public.
They are under investigation for corruption and money laundering from Western sources: violating India’s equivalent of the SEC laws and being implicated in at least a $50Million money laundering & corruption scheme that has connections to foreign governments (i.e. UK govts of Blair & Brown). Their main anchor Bharka Dutt was caught red handed (on tape -telephone intercept by Indian Intelligence) engaged in influence peddling, pushing for the selection A.Raja as Manmohan Singh’s Telecom Minister (a man later jailed in India’s largest corruption scandal that saw 2G Telecom licenses “given-away” to cronies of the congress party and flipped to Western Telecom giants like Vodaphone)
Citing NDTV as a source is not credible without confirmation from reputable sources: I wouldn’t give NDTV any more credence than I would CNN during Hillary Clinton’s election efforts.
Any statement from NDTV about the sole Chinese carrier group being deployed to the Indian Ocean against India’s current 2 carriers is jingoistic mischief and disinfo from a compromised source. Likewise, if NDTV is the only source regarding India and the US sharing intelligence on Chinese naval movements, then it cannot be taken seriously (it has to be backed by a more credible source).
Any reliable Indian news sources?
@Daniel,
I’ll try to get back to you on this, time permitting, work calls. At a minimum, later, I’ll leave you with some links of panel discussions by policy experts or watchers in India.
The problem is giving English language media that isn’t run by USUK oriented or owned serfs: one decent English publication that comes immediately to mind in “the pioneer” and Rajya Sabha (the Indian senate) TV (Hindi, English and a mix where they use both languages without warning). Check their channel on YouTube (I’ll give specific videos time permitting).
Start with The Pioneer (has an Indian Chital Buck as it’s logo): http://www.dailypioneer.com.
I doubt China interested in sending carrier group to Indian Ocean. They rather patrol what’s their own back yard in SCS, where US+Japan are always trying to show “we can lock you up” type naval exercises.
By now it should be clear to the Saker and the readers here that when it comes to Trump,
it is really “Welcome the new POTUS, same as the old POTUS, except without all the pretenses!”
While it is disgusting and atrocious that Bush/Obama etc all bomb nations while screaming it’s for freedom and democracy, Trump may well be the one POTUS that say “to hell with the pretense, we will just bomb because we can get away with it”.
The present Chinese carrier, Liaoning, is not capable of projecting power like US, Indian, French or Japanese carriers. It is, like most of their navy, defensive coastal protection.
It will be moved from Qingdao to Hainan and based there, where they have a submarine base under the island.
The Indian paranoia over China and China+Pakistan and Russia+Pakistan relationships is helping drive the Indians into the arms of US and Japan.
A nation that large, powerful and capable as India is deserves better leadership. Modi is to India what Obama was to the US. Modi is destroying the currency, running down the economy, stalling the development of the country and looking for enemies everywhere.
Two years ago Modi and Pres. Xi had good meetings, began China investment in India’s infrastructure, were exchanging excellent cultural representatives. Modi ruined this.
India is on a path to self-destruction. It looks like it will even abandon BRICS when the US tells it to.
You might even see them decide to leave SCO instead of being a major player in Eurasian security and development.
“Pride goeth before the fall.” (Proverbs 16:18, “Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before stumbling.”
As usual Larchmonter you know nothing about Modi, nor India. your opinions do a disservice to the readers here.
Modi (somebody who I do not fully trust or agree with) has gotten more done in 2 years than the last administration has done in 7-8 years. His recent demonetization has recapitalized Indian banks to the tune of hundreds of billions, as a result India does not need FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and self finance their own economic growth. Commercial lending rates already fell 2 percent as the banks became flush with cash more rate cuts are in the pipeline. No amount of guessing or wishful thinking on your part is going to change reality or facts. He directed the bulk of the Indian budget to the rural poor and farmers; it’s already yielding dividends in the rural sector and will fuel economic growth. He has crushed the luxury goods sector and luxury property sector (an asset bubble) which only benefitted the super rich (causing Trump properties in Gurgaon to lose 30% of their overinflated value), money launderers and the upper middle class. You truly don’t have clue when it comes to India. Please go ahead and give us more gems regarding India, they’ll be duly ignored. I’m doing this once after that I’ll amuse myself reading the inaccuracies that will ensue.
The country has already surpassed China in term a of GDP growth 2 years in a row, but frankly the indian government doesn’t really care: GDP growth without jobs is useless to them, and they’re focussed on the latter(jobs and real output), meaning they’ll be willing to slip asset based GDP growth in favor of employment based economic growth. But too bad, most of this information is available in Hindi and Tamil and not English (which is why you will never be an accurate analyst when it comes to India).
All the progress India has made is despite the absolute shambles the incompetent and thoroughly corrupt Manmohan Singh (a lackey of Western finance and neo liberalism) Regime left India in: in less than 1.5 years into Modi’s administration India went from an Electricity Deficit to Electricity surplus (a first), one of many examples that you are unaware of.
I am pleased that you put your prognostications in writing, it will be useful to revisit in a year – we can then enumerate just how off base your opinions on India are.
” His (Modi’s) recent demonetization has recapitalized Indian banks to the tune of hundreds of billions, as a result India does not need FDI”
The kindest thing to say about this is it is rubbish.
(a) Cash in old demonetised currency deposited into banks by the public is not “recapitalisation”. It is not capital and is simply a liability for the banks. The deposited amount can be and will be withdrawn in due course or immediately.
(b) This temporary surge in deposits cannot even be relied upon as a source of funding for Banks to increase lending. In any case, Banks in India carry a high load of bad debts and have no time nor energy nor willingness to increase lending , what with “investigations ” scapegoating Bank officials for loans extended to crony capitalists , some of whom actually funded Modi’s election campaign in 2014. (Modi travelled all around in the private aircraft of one of them , Adani of Gujarat)
(c) True, there was open speculation by the Govt sources that the undeposited curency (illicit wealth which the hol;ders fear to tender for converting to new) would be sizable and could be used to reduce correspondingly the Reserve Bank’s monetary liability. Govt has now legislated that they would indeed reduce the RBI’s liability in that manner. But, it appears that 97% of the demonetised notes have been tendered for repalcement by new notes. So, there is no gain there.And the Reserve Bank Governor has himself ruled out any “dividend” to Govt from any such extinguishing of liablilty.
(d) It has been an act of incompetence that has seared the entire country.
(b)
Your opinions on economics are just that: Opinions of a non expert. I’ll trust real economists (multiple) with decades of a successful track record over your opinions.
Recapitalizing of the banks is real; the money is not being withdrawn, that is pure speculation on your part. The central bank had to cut interest rates by 1.9% almost immediately. The pressure on the banks to lend and lower interest rates is very high due to the need to pay depositors 4-6-8%. More moves are the way. People are not withdrawing the money as you have speculated, what was sitting fallow in cash or other non interest bearing instruments is now in the banks it has nowhere else to go since taxes will have to paid regardless (based in thresholds).
It’s the failed economic policies of India’s sold out Left in combination with the filthy crony capitalists of the Congress party that left India with such poverty. First Vajpayee and now Modi are trying to cleaning the mess these idiotic Western aping or Soviet/Marx aping idiots left the country in. Thank God India’s looney left is dying off, the sooner the better. This group of discredited theorists have left the country in poverty. I’m sure most didn’t do it out malice (although some did, since their egos were more important than the country), but rather rigid stupidity and fanatic religious fervor (the religion being Marxism and communism).
The next 1-2 years is going reveal the fallacy of your argument.
I agree with you about Modi, who dont give a damn about the poor, mostly from the lowest caste of that society. His demonetization has already caused wide spread havoc amongst the poor and caused even more corruption. Of course, most overseas Indians are not bothered, as they dont care much about the poor there anyways.
As for the economy, I have to laugh when some people still think it will not be adversely affected by the demonetization scheme/scam.
Ever since the Brits overran India and penetrated all Indian power structures with their Intelligence apparatus, India is a Zionist vassal state. Not that the Indians know or want to know. They are too proud a people to admit they were fooled big time.
I love India, the Indians and everything Indian. I long to see India rise up and free itself from all British colonist shackles. But that will take still some time. And greater leaders than weasels like Modi.
@_smr
I agree India, like Russia, has a massive 5th column problem (aka the brown Englishman sellouts). But a so called vassal state it the Zionist empire would not break international sanctions against Iran that even Russia and China were meekly complying with: India kept of buying Iranian crude oil, paying with gold and Indian rupees, and sending back to Iran vital refined gasoline, helping Iran ride out the sanctions. They also wouldn’t be developing Chabahar port (as per this article) creating a vital trade corridor between Russia, Iran and India.
The second most aggressively imperialist naval doctrine on the planet is that of the Indians. They started ruffling feathers in the early noughties when stating in their naval doctrine that they wanted to dominate the waters of the Indian Ocean from the East Coast of Africa to the West Coast of Australia. Then they came up with their “look east” policy and decided they wanted to punch their way through to the Pacific. There is no horizon for these lunatics.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/indias-evolving-maritime-strategy/
Nixon was amongst the few to read the Indians right. Hysterical Hindu exceptionalist views of those that seriously consider their cultural/spiritual entity being at the centre of the universe spells only trouble on this earth.
The border war with China is deeply relevant and totally misunderstood outside governmental circles. In the most locked up US Presidential Library (JFK’s) one will find they keys to that war. The preceding failed harvests in the USSR, the desperate need for food aid in India, that nasty little cousin and Indian Ambassador to the US (B.K. Nehru) who professed his deep relationship with JFK, and hey presto a false flag led war against China that under-wrote the Domino Theory Kennedy needed to get him, and his Australian allies, into the Vietnam War with regulars.
To summarize: you’re saying that the 1962 Chinese attack on India was a trap laid by the US to prove that Communist China was a dangerous expansionist aggressor thereby “proving” the domino theory (of communist expansion). Then Kennedy used the Communist Chinese aggression against India to justify sending regular US troops to Vietnam. That is very interesting, first time I heard such a theory.
Such scenario would imply that Kennedy made a fool out of Mao by getting Mao to take the bait, does that sound plausible?
Still you present a very interesting angle, thank you.
Mao probably couldn’t let it slip, all told he probably acted wisely. If you look at JFK’s New Pacific Community proposal negotiations (for which he got no support from Pacific allies) the use of tactical nuclear weapons against China and proxies was absolutely on the table. Australia was alarmed by it, and wanted strict rules at a minimum, while Washington wanted to leave decisions in the field. JFK didn’t get this trip wire and some of this was down to Mao backing off and bring his troops back while in a winning position.
Russia moderated with China at a time when Russian-Chinese relations were at their lowest and their relations with India were said elsewhere to be at their highest. Smart choices were made given their limited relative strategic capacities for projecting power past their respective borders when compared to the US.
The US in this adventure employed the secret CIA air force with high altitude capacity to fly their Khampan terrorists from their Nepal bases. Those same had been parachuted into Tibet since the 50’s and were trained in Colorado and Okinawa (the latter where Lee Harvey Oswald also served as a radio operator) . Anyway, the Khampans fought no better there than they did anywhere else. they were basically criminals/baandits who never got traction behind the lines either.
Reading recommended is Morrison and Conboy Secret War in Tibet whose works were usually out of the US Naval War College. Once the Chinese broke through and could have gone all the way to Delhi the US called up the fleet. The CIA air force escapades can also be read from the same authors on “Indonesia Feet to the Fire”. Time and Page’s embarrassment has even seen Wikipedia write a half decent page on Allan Lawrence Pope that can be read in conjunction. The relevance there for China is Pope’s choice of flying with his papers which saved his neck after he was captured while bombing the Indonesian Navy, that relevance is pointed because Eisenhower era pilots captured on similar secret warfare flights into China weren’t released until the Nixon era accords. Pope meanwhile was sentenced to death, but Bobby Kennedy went begging to Sukarno for his release and he was released pronto.
It was to prove a bad deal for Sukarno though because the US in making nice suggested free trips to Hawaii for the generals – who were then promptly recruited and set up the false flag to take him down (blamed on communists / Chinese 5th columnists).
Pope’s reported comment cited by Wiki indicts his own terrorism toward civilians in his bombing raids:
“I enjoyed killing Communists… They said Indonesia was a failure[, Al Pope reflected bitterly]. But we knocked the shit out of them. We killed thousands of Communists, even though half of them probably didn’t even know what Communism meant.”
I wonder if they’ll hack the website after this comment too?
Mao was a Western asset, studying at Yale in China.
http://www.mygen.com/users/ufo/Mao_was_a_Yale_Man.html
Oblige in India and am Indian so I know what treacherous our Indian elites are.
India must be kicked out of SCO and mus not be given s400 or t50 which they critics anyway .Indian elites still pomp for d f16!
8 In an effort to move closer to the U.S., the Vajpayee government had considered sending troops to Iraq in 2003, but aborted the move after domestic opposition. that is Iraq which was a secular state and the most friendly state in middle east towards India was betrayed by Indians at the smallest bribery of west to change sides .
India is an untrustworthy nation.Full stop.
Narendra modi now gives bribes to usa in form of immediate decisipn to buy spy infested american junk weaponary costing billions of dollars all within 2 years without any tender
@Socho in describing the Indian Elite I forgot to mention an important group of 5th columnists that used to be influential in India:
Not only does India have an increasingly marginalized Anglophile 5th column problem (who are mainly supporters of the congress party and certain center left-leaning parties), India also has the problem of an equally contemptible ideologically driven self-hating and idiotic group of 5th columnists that have sympathies towards the extreme left Maoist communism, Marxism and China. These people are not true communists but anti-national obstructionists with ties to the Indian mafia and thuggery (particularly ok Kerala where hundreds of unarmed political workers have been murdered at the hands of the ruling state “communist” party). Fortunately, this second group of 5th columnists have been even more marginalized than the Anglophile group and are becoming politically irrelevant (as they die off and lose election after election).
This latter group of 5th columnists do not make up a significant portion of the Indian elite (which is split between The Lord McCauley’s children (aka brown Englishmen clowns) and socially responsible Indian sovereignists – who are in ascendency). Interestingly even though the ostensibly communist leaning 5th columnists are inherently anti-western they get tremendous support and airing of their anti-Indian diatribes in British media, particularly the BBC. This certainly tells you that the Brits have found this group useful in destabilizing India.
BTW the Modi government just increased the federal budget allocation for Dalit (so-called untouchables) and other lower castes (scheduled castes) by a whopping 30-40% for the 2017 budget. So much for the non-experts that pedantically parrot western MSM lies that Modi is anti poor (reminds me of the poor dupes that bash Putin because of something they read in English language media). That facts don’t support the anti-Modi anti-BJP propaganda line.
Yes India was helping VIA in spy gathering in Latham against China in late 50s.
https://www.sott.net/article/341426-Pepe-Escobar-Game-changers-ahead-on-the-Maritime-Silk-Road-Indian-cooperation-and-competition-with-China
Think this website has been hacked, above link to the article
“…far away from the Middle Kingdom is definitely not… ”
I hate this expression, “Middle Kingdom”, with a fiery passion. The Chinese word is: 中國 (Zhōngguó) 中 (Zhōng) means central and 國 (Guó) means state. This is what the Chinese use to say ‘China’ in their own language.
The second part, 國 (Guó), most definitely does not imply royalty or aristocratic rule as in Eurocentric languages, clearly if it had any such implication it would have been banished by the communist (or the republicans before for that) and replaced with a more suitable phrase.
The first part, 中 (Zhōng), might imply a ‘middle’ but clearly from the long Chinese history and culture they didn’t recognize equals on their sides (or above and below them) and clearly they didn’t think there are higher states to be had so this is not a ranking ‘middle’.
The term clearly refers to the central government ruled from a capital by a supreme head who rules directly in China and indirectly around it (the tributary states) and even imposes his will on the barbarians who surround China.
When Chinese say Zhōngguó it would be similar to any American talking about the Federal Government or the French talking about Paris doing this or that (or Moscow in Russia for example).
This distinction is actually important in understanding Chinese history and culture, their two millennium long habit of centralizing government and building super-national institutions in contrast to Europe’s habit of fracturing and building local institutions. Either one should use the correct term, i.e. Central State, or just use China and not confuse anyone with their arrogant euro-centric mistranslation.
Postscript: I actually developed this Central State concept of Chinese historical development long before I knew of this linguistics quirk of the Chinese (that they don’t have a name for their own country).
Postscript II: There is a similar mistranslation with the other phrase used to denote China: Flowery Kingdom, I leave it as an exerciser to the reader to find out the correct translation.
This is a bit of an overreaction to an imagined ‘eurocentric’ disparagement of China. Middle means central, in the center of other things (in that case of the vassal states) in all ‘eurocentric’ languages.
Kingdom, realm, royaume, basileia, imperium, were terms defining a community or territory over which a sovereign (be it a monarch or the ‘sovereign people’) rules<lat. 'regere'=to rule. Kingdom is also a term in biology: kingdom (Latin: regnum, plural regna) is the second highest taxonomic rank below domain.
A mistranslation is "Celestial Empire' for Tianxia (tiānxià/tien-hsia; Chinese: 天下; literally: "under heaven"). The 'ruler' was the Son of Heaven (Chinese and Japanese: 天子) who recived the "Mandate of Heaven (天命)".
Anyhow, at the time of the first contacts with Europeans, China was a monarchy ruled by a what was the equivalent of the 'eurocentric' King.
@Master Kong
Are you a native mandarin speaker? Somehow I get the feeling you are. It seems that your explanation makes a lot of sense based on my own knowledge of Mandarin.
If you interested in Pepe’s paper:https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201612031048134334-rules-trump-game-mattis/
I would like to read the article, but it seems it was “hacked By Fallag Gassrini”
Fallag Gassrini.
https://www.google.no/search?q=Fallag+Gassrini&oq=Fallag+Gassrini&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i61.146215j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Kent
Pepe has a very curious book review published at atimes that many will miss reading. saker might want to republish it as he does with much of Pepe’s work. http://www.atimes.com/article/look-back-anger-unplugged/
This Silk Road thing – both maritime and land – on which Pepe Escobar has been updating us, is true brainer thinking! Considering the state the world is in today, it could be just what’s needed to fully drop the curtain on anglo-zionist ambitions for a long time to come. The concept is all-round good sense. Civilized man-think. I do hope that, some day soon, Canada will develop a leadership that has the guts (for a change) to say, “OK, that’s it for yankee NAFTAs and other sucker/vassal agreements” and will opt to become the eastern terminal of OBOR. (Our Mackenzie Delta is only circa 1750 km from the Russian coast). What a world-changer that would be, EH?
Ovaltine,
How do you like the China-Russia-Canada-America rail line?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/chinese-experts-discussions-high-speed-beijing-american-railway
Great insight from Pepe. He’s always right on top of Silk Road development.
My country India has been a traitor to the cause of 3rd world solidarity and has become a vassal of angkoanericans.
Hence stupidity of India to pour venom on anything that China does.now India does not even support what Russia does.
India must not be given t50 or s400 by Russia.
(a) Pepe’s views would be interesting on the recent article in “The Hindu” of Nirupama Rao, formerly India’s Foreign secretary and also formerly Indian Ambassador tot he US. She suggests that India should offer China, transit and trade to Tibet via Kolkata Port and Nathu La border crossing between India and TAR of China for supplies to Tibet.As part of the OBOR initiative of China. This, in fact was the route in the early 50s, since, at taht time, connectivity from China East to Tibet was very poor. My father was an Indian Geologist working for the Govt of India. He had camped and trekked upto Nathu La in 1954. He mentioned to me , once, seeing trucks carrying supplies for the PLA in Tibet sourced through Kolkata Port.
(b) Regarding the exchange between Ciao and Mirror (in this site) on the origins of the 1962 border war between China and India, I can add the following:
(i) In the 50s and 60s , US did not recognise the PRC, but had a system of the Warsaw ambassadors of both countries meeting with each other every six months to review “matters of common interest”
(ii) State Deptt documents declassified in 2004 indicates that at the June 1962 Warsaw meeting, the US assured China that the Chinese need fear no action from Taiwan on the area of China facing Taiwan i.e. Fujian province and so on. It appears that Mao promptly moved army columns into Tibet in readiness for the hostilities which began in September 1962. “Beware of the Westerners” is the lesson to be drawn. It is possible that the US was trying to manipulate China right from the inception of the Sino-Soviet rift in 1960.
(iii) Ciao is absolutely right in saying that the root cause of India-China friction is the encouragement given by India to Dalai Lama and his clique. (There is no better word than “clique” to describe the lot . It is the word that China uses. You can hardly make the Dalai Lama responsible when he is only, say, 6 years old, typically the age at which he assumes status of Dalai lama. So, it is the “Kashag” or Council that intrigues with foreigners and takes “decisions” in the Dalai Lama’s name during his childhood and adolescence and, probably , later) . And China is well within its rights to point out that they are not , for example, hosting any Kashmiri separatist in Chinese territory.
(iv) What my fellow-Indians need to appreciate is that they have been had , and the West has succeeded in muddying the waters between India and China without sacrificing the West’s own relationship witjh China. That always happens when a superpower plays its game. My cousin, who is a US national, has spent a month in Lhasa as a visitor. It would be very difficult for me to do the same. So., the US loses nothing even if they have , indeed, organised Khampa terror in Tibet from Indian soil, but we Asian countries continue to be at odds with each other.
(v) However, the root cause of India’s unwise Tibetan involvement is not US instigation, but British intrigues at the time of our independence. Churchill hated China , though the two countries were allies in WW2. He particularly blamed Madame Chiang (wife of the then-President of China, Chiang Kai Sheik), for persuading Roosevelt to come heavily in favour of a national govt in India in 1942. Churchill resisted with all his might and Roosevelt finally threatened Churchill that “if as a result of your failure to have a national govt in India, the Japanese make further inroads into India, American public opinion would incline to review the alliance with Great Britain”. It was astrong statement made at a critical time of war. Still, Churchill remained stubborn , jailed Gandhi and Nehru and banned the Indian National Congress in 1942. He then launched the Bengal famine for the genocide of 6 million Indians during 1942-43. No famine was declared, no money was allowed to be collected anywhere in India for famine relief. Still, Madame Chiang , Eleanor Roosevelt, and Pearl S Buck (the writer who had just then got the Nobel Prize), each gave $ 25000/- for famine relief in Bengal. (I think it was given through Vijayalaxmi Pandit, Nehru’s sister who was out of jail and was organising relief). Churchill was furious, as he had been diligently keeping a wrap on what was happeniong in Bengal and did not want anything to come out .
(vi) At this time, the Tibetans were assiduously currying favour with the colonial British rulers in India. Just a year before our independence, in 1946, a “delegation” from Tibet came to Delhi , and, incidentally carried “gifts”. Two gifts, one for the King in England and one for the British Viceroy in Delhi. Nothing for any Indian! We Indians do not owe these Tibetans anything.
(vii) In early 1947, a few months before our independence, the Viceroy’s Govt desaptched to Lhasa, to re4sume charge as Trade Agent, Hugh Richardson of the Indian Civil Service (ICS). This was the elite service of colonial admninistartors , of whom, Nehru had written that “it was neither Indian, nor Civil, nor a Service !” Richardson , was a pucca Kiplingesque imperialist ever eager to take up the white man’s burden and impose himself on colonial peoples. His joining the ICS in 1930 (the year in which Mahatma Gandhi boiled sea water to get some salt and avoid the British-imposed Salt Tax , and got jailed in the process along with countless others) suggests enthusiastic support for colonial plunder. This man, Richardson continued as India’s “representative” in Lhasa even after independence until 1950. His counterpart in Foreign Ministry in Delhi was another ICS officer, Sir Girija Shankar Bajpai, who had loyally served the British during their rule,. Bajpai even lied in writing, to teh Chinese Ambassador in Delhi to conceal Richardson’s attempt to arm the Tibetans. Bajpai persuaded Sardar Patel to address a letter to Nehru warning of Chinese threats and so on. (Patel himse;lf was completely innocent of any knowledge of geopolitics). Why Nehru succumbed to all this is not clear. He had a better knowledge than most , of world politics. But there was a clutch of British-appointed bureaucrats who , in all probability, acted as surrogates of Western powers. Perhaps, even B N Mullick, the first Director of India’s Intelligence Bureau, who liaised later witht he Americans in fuelling Khampa rebellion in Tibet.
(vii) India needs to take China into confidence regarding Dalai Lama and opena new leaf. Dalai can well move to SriLanka or Myanmar where important Buddhist centres exist.
In respect of the Taiwanese, the involvement in insurgent operations in cooperation with the CIA against China was ongoing since Eisenhower. I had not heard of the telegraphed signal given to Mao – thanks. Indeed, though, the Taiwanese flew a parallel secret war air force to the CIA out of adjacent bases in Indonesia.
In respect of Britain and the US, and notwithstanding the Churchill’s wartime resourcing efforts and plans for the post-war period, I believe that their significance and influence had waned to the point where they were inconsequential in respect of the tactical India-China border war. Probably the most important events of the preceding era were the Brits losses in Sumatra. There was the Eisenhower era a contest between the US and the Brits and independently minded Indonesia. The US may not have won but the Brits lost worst. While the Brits were cultivating the former Dutch East Indies administrators class Christians out of Singapore, it was the CIA and Taiwan that moved in the physical assets and set up their secret airbases which meant displacement there as well.
In other words, the US was acting completely independently of Britain and was determined to get both them and the Dutch out of SE Asia. To do that they need to wrest Australia away without upsetting their population with traditional links to Britain, the Australian government also wanted the Dutch kept in West Irian as a buffer, whereas the US wanted them out. The Malaya campaign and de-colonialisation including the independence of Singapore was very tricky for Australia primarily because US siding with Indonesia was an emerging reality no matter if Sukarno was in power, or not. Basically the Brits were being pushed back through Suez and beyond.
In any case it was all done and dusted by ’62 in terms of the Brit prospects in Asia when Australia’s independent defence posture and foreign policy, one that they adopted only in ’58 (Khruschev at that time even flew a move of the UN from NYC to Australia up the flagpole) was simply abandoned in favour of the US umbrella by the very same government in power.
Despite the pre-conditional role of the Brits, the border war was about a bought/paid for Indian government doing the US’s bidding.
In former Australian diplomat Greg Clark’s opinion below one line is particularly significant:
“The adamant Indian refusal of these negotiations undercuts Indian protestations of innocence and injury.”
http://www.gregoryclark.net/bookrev.html
Clark was in turn reviewing Maxwell’s work which is available here:
http://chinaindiaborderdispute.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/neville-maxwell-chinas-india-war.pdf
To get to the heart of the chain of events though one has to read (and sift through the obfuscation & lies) the autobiographical efforts of one BK Nehru in Washington as he and his Hungarian Jewish wife worked with his diplomatic bestie JFK.
On Fori, there is a testimony here: http://themoderatevoice.com/indias-fori-nehru-worlds-oldest-jewish-woman-alive/
On BK Nehru, when you get to it, you can ignore any irony of the title of his autobiography “Nice Guys Finish Second” because even atheist Brahmin that like a tipple never place themselves as second. Of coarse his good works in attempting to bring Kashmir and the NE provinces to heel were all undone by Indira according to his own views.