It was the be expected: the Pharaoh, who had been told by his masters that he was expected to “solve the problem” moved his stormtroopers in to attempt to close the border between Egypt and Gaza. Simultaneously, the Empire sensing that the situation might be getting out of control at the United Nations moved to prevent the adoption of a UNSC resolution on the blockade of Gaza. Lastly, Israel carried out to airstrikes close to the Rafah crossing and killed senior Hamas officials.
The USraelian Empire’s response to the collapse of the Gaza Wall is now clear: put the burden of handling the political fallout from the clashes with the Palestinians on Mubarak and get the rest of the world to turn its attention away from the resulting violence. This was all very predictable. What will be interesting to observe will be Hamas’ reaction to these developments.
So far, I have seen no reports of Hamas forces taking action to keep the border open or to protect the Palestinians from Mubarak’s goons. Hamas needs to take a strategic decision to either a) get a secret understanding with Mubarak that the border will not really be shut down again, or b) to openly defy him and engage any force attempting to restore the status quo ante. But ‘engaging’ does not necessarily mean using armed force
The most effective tactic, a least for the time being, is probably get as many Gazans as possible to demonstrate and protest against Mubarak’s betrayal. There should be a continuous presence of 100’000 Gazans ON the border 24/7.
The key here is to set up Mubarak politically *before* engaging his forces on the ground. Hamas will have to constantly keep in mind the following strategic factors:
1) Hamas simply cannot allow the border to be closed down again. Ever. It can allow a semblance of control and a “face-saving fig leaf” (-: Mubarak deserves no less :-) for the Pharaoh, but the blockade on Gaza should not be allowed to be reimposed.
2) Egypt is not the “Jewish state”. Civil disobedience, non-violent protest and conventional rioting will have an impact upon Mubarak’s ability to act. Hamas should only use guns in strict self-defense as the main ‘weapon’ in the hands of Hamas is a political one: the Arab public opinion.
3) Hamas should make full use of the fact that Mubarak is hated by the Egyptian street by coordinating actions of mass protest against Mubarak’s collaborationist policies with the opposition forces throughout Egypt.
Ideally – Mubarak should be pushed in the exact same corner where the Shah of Iran was placed by the Iranian opposition: a political quicksand in which each movement of the regime brings it one step closer to death.
The boundless arrogance of the Empire whose leaders cannot even begin to imagine that a bunch of “bearded Islamists” could actually take control of Egypt (something truly apocalyptic for the Imperial policies in the Middle-East)
Conclusion: Ægypto Delenda Est (Egypt must fall)
From the Palestinian point of view Egypt is definitely the weak link the the Imperial chain shackling the Palestinians in general, and Gaza in particular. The latest developments have only made this fundamental truth more obvious. Consequently, the Palestinians need to use all their considerable political power in the Arab and Muslim world to push Mubarak to either follow Musharraf’s example and become a de-facto buffer between the Empire and the Palestinians or the Shah’s example and loose it all.
It is also crucial for Hamas never to forget, not for one second, that neither the USA nor Israel will ever be able to move in to protect Mubarak. All Mubarak has are his “security forces” and the corrupt cronies living off the billions his regime gets from the USA.
Egypt is a ripe (although “rotten” might be a better term) fruit, ready to be plucked by the Resistance forces and Gaza border might just be the place to make that happen.
the latest: they’ve busted a new escape route: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/
7208252.stm
The harsh dictator Mubarak (and all the rest in the middle east) must go. Egypt and every other Arab country must become a free democracy.
Mubarak has almost always de-facto behaved as America’s enemy, even though he occasionally sweet talks America to extort $2.5 billion in hard earned American taxpayer money from the Congress in the form of grants.
I don’t believe that Palestine, or Israeli-Arab tension can ever durably be solved unless the Arab states become free democracies (the large majority of countries in the world are free democracies.)
If the people of Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, South Africa and Turkey deserve freedom and democracy, don’t the Arab people deserve the right to freedom and democracy too.
I also believe that freedom and democracy would facilitate faster economic growth in Egypt.
Totally agree. As I’ve said elsewhere, Hamas, by accident or not, have identified the Achilles Heel of the Zionist edifice: the Arab regimes. I’m not for a moment suggesting that many of these regimes are not nasty and brutal, but as you’ve said, they have the advantage of not being Israel. Had the Palestinians massed at an Israeli border, the IOF would have shot all round them and earned the applause of their compatriots for so doing. The Egyptians just cannot afford to do so, even were their soldiers willing to open fire on fellow Arabs and Muslims. Next stop, the Hashemite Kingdom!
Hamas has seized the day, now it has to do what is in a sense the harder work of keeping the momentum high. Returning to the status quo ante is just not an option.
Mubarak is a murderer. He has killed many Egyptians. He wouldn’t hesitate to do it again.
Palestinians are an oppressed minority within Egypt. They are frequently kicked around (as they are in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, the Gulf and other Arab countries too . . . only Jordan seems to treat them decently . . . but then Jordan is 60% Palestinian.)
The sad truth is that Israel’s Palestinian minority (1/5th of its citizens) are treated better than Egyptian Palestinians are treated by Egyptians.
Hamas is the Palestinian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mubarak hates the Muslim Brotherhood and its Palestinian branch Hamas, especially since the later two are trying to unseat him. Mubarak has done terrible things to the Muslim Brotherhood. He would do the same to Hamas as well. The one advantage Hamas has is that Mubarak very much wants to avoid a mass additional migration of Palestinians to Egypt (nativist anti-Palestinian sentiment among Egyptians is a major problem that could destabilize his harsh dictatorship . . . many Egyptians want to ‘solve’ Palestine in part so that the Palestinians can be exported back to Palestine.)
Hamas can threaten Mubarak with a flood of new Egyptian immigrants unless Mubarak plays ball with them. My sense though is that Mubarak’s conflict with the muslim brotherhood and Hamas is too deep rooted to be patched over.
“Had the Palestinians massed at an Israeli border, the IOF would have shot all round them and earned the applause of their compatriots for so doing.” This is nuts. The Israeli people, who are basically a good people with a conscience, would flip out. The Israeli government would be thrown out ASAP. Palestinian deaths are bad for the Israeli government politically. What upsets Israelis are security threats to Israelis.
Irish Eyes, why do you have such a low opinion of the Israeli people and their elected government?
Anand,
I’m not going to try to debate with you because you are living in cloud cuckoo land. If you want to continue with the fantasy that the Israelis would ‘flip out’ if their IOF shot Palestinian civilians, nothing I can say will change your mind. But just in case I’m wrong, here are a few recent events which evoked barely a whimper of disapproval in Israeli society:
– the killing of an entire family on the Gaza beach;
– the acknowledged attempt to impose extreme privation on a civilian population;
– the killing of scores of civilians (incl many children) in Qana (not once, but twice);
– the killing of an extended family asleep in their beds in Gaza.
I could go on but what’s the point? You and I simply don’t inhabit the same planet.
@petey: yep. I saw that also. so far so good, Hamas is doing everything right
@Anand: you really should stop posting nonsense here, no matter how well meaning. As I told you before several times, try ASKING A QUESTION! You have got people here, such as Irish Eyes, who *really* know what they are talking about. You should *use them* to inform yourself and to get a different perspective, not argue with them. You are free to keep up with that nonsense, of course, but you only make yourself look silly. Think about it!
@Irish Eyes: yep, looks to me like Hamas realized that its far more effective for them to fight Mubarak first and then every other Imperial prostitute second and leave the Israelis for last. We will see if they can stay this course over the next weeks.
Irish eyes, the deaths you cite have greatly pained Israelis and hurt the Israeli government politically.
– the killing of an entire family on the Gaza beach; {mistaken attempt to hit militants rocketing Israel proper)
– the acknowledged attempt to impose extreme privation on a civilian population {not cold blooded killing in front of cameras}
– the killing of an extended family asleep in their beds in Gaza. {Are you talking about a targeted assassination?}
– the killing of scores of civilians (incl many children) in Qana (not once, but twice); {Targeted assassination}
IDF won’t strike civilians in front of cameras if they can possibly avoid it, unless they are being fired upon by militants and civilians die in the cross fire. Unless fired upon (or without good reason to believe they would be fired upon), and IDF soldier would be court marshaled if they kill civilians.
Haven’t the vast majority of Israelis you met had a heart, and felt for Palestinians (even while being critical of their leadership and choices.) I have read editorials by the few exceptions, but not physically met them.
BTW, I am a free trader/free investment/ pro-outsourcing/ pro-collaboration across vertical and horizontal functions kind of guy. So I oppose sanctions on Gaza. In fact I favor a free trade zone that would include Palestine, Israel, and their neighbors. I think that Israel should try to make it easier for Palestinians to work in Israel, commute to Israel, move to Israel. I don’t buy any of the segregation craziness. And I don’t connect with people who like living in segregated settlement
And Irish eyes, I am sure you would admit that the Egyptian security forces frequently use extreme force and kill Egyptians. Egypt is a partial “fear” police state.
I wouldn’t mind criticizing the Malaysian government in Malaysia (done that actually.) But I would think twice before doing so in Egypt. (Although I haven’t been there . . . I must admit . . . I have heard that people generally don’t shoot their mouths off at Mubarak in public over there.) This is the real reason that Malaysia is so successful (I wouldn’t mind living there) and Egypt is such a basket case.
What I don’t get is why the Palestinians and Israelis don’t kiss and make up. They are so alike (in values, culture, interests), and would so benefit from each other’s friendship and collaboration. They both seem so irrational.
Who cares about a small specks of land here and there? At least that is how I think.
Let me ask a question to both of you.
What is your source for Hizbollah suffering only about 300 combat deaths in 2006 (I believe that Hizbollah has publicly admitted between 250-300), versus the more than 500 combat deaths cited in every non Hizbollah source that I have read?
Note that I have never argued that Hizbollah fought poorly in 2006. They fought pretty well.
{The Israelis didn’t fight poorly either . . . but that is a different question.}
Why doesn’t anyone here favor a close alliance and friendship between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Israelis and Hizbollah.
They seem like natural allies to me.
VS–
Great thread, thanks!
You allude to the potential fall of Mubarak along the lines of the Shah.
In that event-which I unfortunately think is unlikely, but who knows-what do you foresee for the future of Egypt?
@Anand: I take my figures from official Hezbollah sources, not because I have a blind belief in whatever Hezbollah (or anyone else for that matter) say, but because Hezbollah is *well known* for not only not hiding their martyrs, but for actually making a big deal out of anyone killed. Besides, the way Lebanese society is structured and way Hezbollah is decentralized there is no way of hiding any significant numbers of death. What can happen is the following:
1)differences on the definition of what constitutes a ‘combattant’.
2) Hezbollah trying to conceal (for whatever reason, for example to hide the location of specific command posts and other critical infrastructure) that this or that particular individual has been killed or wounded.
3) people unaccounted for.
4) poor centralization of information.
In any case, that would not significantly affect the bottom line figure.
@Steve: don’t be so sure about Mubarak not going the Shah’s way. The thing is that these types of regimes tend to collapse catastrophically, in particular when they lack the ability to flexibly and creatively respond to challenges. I would argue that ALL the dictators in the Middle-East are in danger of going the Shah’s way, including in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan.
As to what would replace Mubarak, my guess is a Sunni Islamist state, hopefully a rather reasonable and non-Wahabi one. But your guess here is as good as mine.
anand,
I’m not going to respond to your particularly lame re-hashing of Israeli porpaganda bit by bit, but this piece cannot go ignored:
“- the killing of an extended family asleep in their beds in Gaza. {Are you talking about a targeted assassination?}”
“- the killing of scores of civilians (incl many children) in Qana (not once, but twice); {Targeted assassination}”
What the…????? An entire family, incl. children, are killed in their beds and you call this a ‘targeted assasination”????? Your very use of the term is telling, as it is only ever used in hasbara – all assasinations are by definition targeted. Until now I simply thought you were rather lacking in grey matter, now I think you’re pretty callous too, I’m sorry to say.
“IDF soldier would be court marshaled if they kill civilians.”
You just don’t have a clue, do you? I mean, not a clue.
“Who cares about a small specks of land here and there? At least that is how I think.”
Can I assume you have never been ordered off your ancestral land at gunpoint?
“Can I assume you have never been ordered off your ancestral land at gunpoint?”
How would you know? Ever heard about partition in 1947. Ancestral villages and land a few kilometers on the wrong side of the border.
Millions willingly gave up their ancestral land without fuss. I have never encountered much bitterness among my own relatives for losing their ancestral land (not just from my parents but from many other relatives.) Land isn’t nearly as important as people, or so many other things.
In my own case, we are talking more than 13 generations. {I should look up the exact length.}
That is why so many in South Asia have so much puzzlement about the other partition of 1948 and the intensity of the Arab Israeli dispute.
Regarding targeted assassinations; Hamas facilitates terrorist attacks against Israeli population centers (that kill Palestinian and Jewish Israeli citizens alike), Israel strikes back at the people organizing these attacks in Gaza. Too many civilians die without any real purpose. That is why the meaningless and worthless conflict between Hamas and Israel is so awful and mindless. There are no conceivable winners in Hamas or Israel. There are only losers. And the losers include everyone.
Israel wants no land in Gaza. The Israeli people are willing to bribe the people of Gaza to simply to handle their own affairs and prevent terrorists from operating out of Gaza. There is broad support within Israel for a Marshall type plan to facilitate the Gazan people achieving their own prosperity and success in return for their cooperation against the Jihadis.
Hamas is unwilling to give up armed attacks on Israel until Israel completes evacuating settlements in the West Bank (and even then many extremists inside Hamas strongly oppose a two state solution.)
I think that Hamas should give up “VIOLENT” struggle, continue Sathya Graha (non-violent struggle) in the West Bank, and transform Gaza proper into another Dubai with Israeli and international help. Gaza should begin difficult free market reforms, while extracting the greatest possible assistance from the rest of the world.
A more prosperous and successful Gaza would give Hamas and all Palestinians much greater leverage with Israel in demanding a return the 1967 borders in the West Bank, subject to land swaps of “EQUAL” quality. The transformation of Gaza into a prosperous successful entity should therefore begin immediately and not wait on some settlement in the West Bank.
The world and the Israeli people, most of whom are good people of conscience, would support their Palestinian brothers from the occupied territories if the Palestinians renounced all violence. MLK and Gandhi have proven that non-violence isn’t only moral, but strategically the most effective.
“Millions willingly gave up their ancestral land without fuss. “
What a load of fiction. But, what can one expect from a person who justifies the murder of dozens of sleeping children because it was a ‘targetted assassination”?
Honestly, you’d be far more at home on one of the many hasbara blogs out there.
What???
Some things are just stupid if not worse when appearing to come from a Zionist apologist.
“Who cares about a few bits of land?”
Was it the anarchist Kropotkin?? who said,keeping in mind the ancient commune and its commonly held and worked lands as the basis for producing the existence and well being of all “Property is theft.”
Is it not true that even in industrial society land rents underlie all else in terms of production?
Jack Jersawitz
404-892-1238
bigjackjj@yahoo.com
Who cares about a “specific” piece of land? Knowledge or human capital is far more valuable than land. Mining our own minds and talents is far more important than mining physical land.
‘Who cares about a “specific” piece of land? Knowledge or human capital is far more valuable than land. Mining our own minds and talents is far more important than mining physical land.’
Pardon me folks but there is no other way to say this.
Anand is a fucking cretin.
Without missing the fact that he qualified land with “specific,” he nonetheless, aside from failing to acknowledge that the Palestinian lands were and continue to be stolen from the Palestinians,said theft leaving them with “NO” land his stupidity is demonstrated by putting “Mining… minds and talents” above the very thing to which our minds and talents are put, the land, the planet, which is of course the basis of our existence.
Will not be too soon before the Zionist state is crushed and smashed and criminals who seek to excuse the Israeli genocide put where they belong.
I have read some stupid things on the internet but never anything as stupid as this.
Jack Jersawitz
404-892-1238
bigjackjj@yahoo.com
Anand writes:
Mubarak has almost always de-facto behaved as America’s enemy, even though he occasionally sweet talks America to extort $2.5 billion in hard earned American taxpayer money from the Congress in the form of grants.
Wrongo. The fact is that the American people gladly hand over their tax dollars to Egypt in the form of MIC product–weapons–just as they do to Turkey and Israel. Since the US is a democracy, then the American people are guilty of fomenting war all across the globe so that they can make a profit. THAT is democracy and that is what you want for all the rest of the Arab world . . . along with “free” markets, no doubt. I am just as opposed to “free” markets as I am to democracy because the only thing that “free” market means is that the resources of a people are FREE for high-paid thugs to STEAL, thus enriching themselves and exploiting occupied peoples.
Jack writes:
Will not be too soon before the Zionist state is crushed and smashed and criminals who seek to excuse the Israeli genocide put where they belong.
I’m also longing for the day when the terrorist American state is crushed and smashed and American criminals who seek to excuse their sponsorship of global genocide are put where they belong . . . and their families along with them.
As for the Gazans, while I’m no lover of Arabs (because, along with the Turks, Persians, and Americans/Israelis) they are also a genocider people–Google “Anfal”. However, HAMAS is a democratically elected government–something all genociders should LOVE–even while remaining on The List (TM), and the starvation of the people is a crime perpetrated by both the US and Israel, as well as their regional lapdogs. The people were right to break out of their prison and may they be successful in overcoming the blockade.
“the American people gladly hand over their tax dollars to Egypt in the form of MIC product–weapons–just as they do to Turkey and Israel. Since the US is a democracy, then the American people are guilty of fomenting war all across the globe so that they can make a profit.”
surely tongue in cheek?
1: the american people is group more than twice as large as the american taxpayers.
2: the american taxpayers quite ungladly hand their money over to the IRS, on pain of imprisonment.
3: the IRS then makes it available to congress,
4: at which point the control of the american tapayers over the disposition of the money they ungaldly parted with ends, if we ever had it at all.
5: whatever profit is made doesn’t reach the american taxpayer, much less the american people, who, i can tell you being one of them, are looking basically for essential services like fire departments and paved roads. believe you me, we don’t really want to give our money to the IRS, much less to egypt, or to any other foreign country for that matter. that’s done “for” us.