by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
Get over it: Asia rules
New book helps explain why the 21st Century will be the Asian Century
The greatest merit of Parag Khanna’s new book, The Future is Asian, is to accessibly tell the story of a historical inevitability – with the extra bonus of an Asian point of view. This is not only a very good public service, it also blows out of the water countless tomes by Western “experts” pontificating about Asia from an air-con cubicle in Washington.
Asia hands from the West tend to be extremely protective of their extra-territoriality. In my case, I moved to Asia in 1994, and Singapore was my first base. In time I found out – along with some of my colleagues at Asia Times – nothing would ever compare to following the ever-developing, larger than life Asian miracle on the spot.
Khanna has always been in the thick of the action. Born in India, he then moved to the UAE, the West, and is now a resident in Singapore. Years ago we spent a jolly good time in New York swapping Asia on-the-road stories; he’s a cool conversationalist. His Connectography is a must read.
Khanna found a very special niche to “sell” Asia to the Western establishment as a strategic adviser – and is very careful not to ruffle feathers. Barack Obama, for instance, is only guilty of “half-heartedness”. When you get praise from Graham Allison, who passes for a Thucydides authority in the US but would have major trouble understanding Italian master Luciano Canfora’s Tucidide: La Menzogna, La Colpa, L’Esilio, you know that Khanna has done his homework.
Of course, there are a few problems. It’s a bit problematic to coin Singapore “the unofficial capital of Asia”. There’s no better place to strategically follow China than Hong Kong. And as a melting pot, Bangkok, now truly cosmopolitan, is way more dynamic, creative and, let’s face it, funkier.
In 1997 I published a book in Brazil titled 21st: The Asian Century, based on three years of non-stop on-the-road reporting. It came out only a few days before the Hong Kong handover and the collapse of the baht that sparked the Asian financial crisis – so the book’s argument might have been seen as passé. Not really; once the crisis was over, the development push by the Asian tigers was overtaken by China. And 10 years later, slightly before the Western-made global financial crisis, the road to the Asian Century was more than self-evident.
Khanna hits all the right tones and multiple overtones stating the case that the Asian century “will…” begin when Asia crystallizes into a whole greater than the sum of its many parts”. It’s already happening, and it’s a wise choice to set the point of no return towards an Asia-led new world order at the first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in May 2017 in Beijing.
Yet throughout the book Khanna feels the need to take immense pain showing frightened Anglo-American readers that China won’t lead the Asian future; there will be no “Chinese tianxia, or harmonious global system guided by Chinese Confucian principles”. And that offers room for references to the push by the US and its allies to “deter China”, or the push by “Japan, India, Australia and Vietnam” to “counter China aggression”. Not to mention credit to the pathetic notion of “clash of civilizations”. But, on a whole, Khanna nails it. “By joining BRI, other Asian countries have tacitly recognized China as a global power – but the bar for hegemony is very high.”
No East and West
Within the scope of an article, and not a book, it’s possible to show that this epic story is not about hegemony, but connectivity.
First of all, there’s no East and West; as Edward Said has shown, this is essentially inherited from Eurocentrism and colonialism, starting way back when the Ancient Greeks situated the western borders of Asia in the eastern Mediterranean.
Asia, the term, comes from the ancient Assyrian assu – which means rising sun. A clear distinction between East and West was stamped by the end of the 3rd century, at the time of Diocletian, when the Roman empire was cut in half following a meridian from Dalmatia to Cyrenaica, a partition confirmed at the death of Theodosius 1 in 395 AD.
The East then organized itself around Constantinople while the West was divided and regarded as Europe, a distinct unity under Charlemagne (800 AD). What’s interesting is that in contrast with China – self-defined as the center of the world – neither the Roman Empire nor Islam saw themselves as such, admitting the existence of other quite populated worlds: China and India.
The notion of a “continent” only came up in the 16th century, based on the tri-partition Europe-Asia-Africa made by the Greeks in the Eastern Mediterranean, adopted by Judaism, Christianity and Islam, and ratified by the “discovery” of the New World: the Americas. So once again, “continent” is a Western invention.
Eurasia is essentially a giant, elliptical, unified space. Crack geographers tend to see it to the north – from Central Asia up to the northwest of India – as the realm of caravan routes, Silk Roads, cosmopolitan oases, steppes and deserts crisscrossed by nomads.
To the south, it’s a sort of monsoon “shawl” draped over a unique ocean; maritime routes through straits; and cosmopolitan ports and warehouses.
Southeast Asia enjoys a unique status, squeezed in a historical and cultural pincer movement between two major forces, constituted in an independent manner from one another as two major civilizations; India to the west and China to the northeast.
The inner logic of all this immense space is mutation, trade exchanges, and migrations. So Eurasia is essentially unified as two major “on the move” spaces; continental and steppe (on horseback), plus maritime (via navigation). Historically, between these two corridors, we find the creative hubs of civilizations and more durable empires: China, the Indian world, Persia/Iran, the Arab world, the Byzantine-Ottoman empire.
Hard node of history
In one of his exceptional books, French geographer Christian Grataloup conclusively shows how Eurasia is a geo-historic entity – exhibiting a “system of inter-relations from one end to another”. Yes, it’s all about connectivity, as the Chinese are stressing with the New Silk Roads or BRI.
Already by the 15th century, every society in Eurasia exhibited the same presence of cities, writing, monetary exchange. So it’s possible to conceive a common history, from the Mediterranean to Japan, for over two millennia. Grataloup’s intuition is breathtaking. “This is the hard node of world history”.
Historically, it’s all about the confluence of eastern routes in the north, the Silk Roads at the center, and southern routes, mostly the Spice Route. In the central segment of the major axis, decisive innovations occurred; the first villages, the first forms of agriculture, writing, the birth of the State. As the great Mongol caravan empire, built around the Silk Roads in the 13th century, fractured, while societies in the extremities of Eurasia developed maritime power.
Khanna offers myriad details on the key fact; that the Eurasian space is finally being rearranged, rebuilt via economic development, along transversal axes configured as economic corridors; the result of a modernization process that started in Japan in the second half of the 19th century to expand to all of East and Southeast Asia, then China, and finally India. The genius of the BRI project is to make it happen.
The Chinese ambition to be the economic leader of the Eurasia ensemble – by land and by sea – is a unique development in the region’s history, combining the continental approach of the Mongol empire of the steppes, or the Russia empire, with the maritime approach of the West, especially via the British Empire.
But contrary to Western imperialism, it’s all based on economy and culture. So, China will have a lot of work mastering the art of soft power. Time though is on the BRI side; the horizon is 2049 – not profits in the next quarter. Maritime routes in the north like the Arctic Silk Road, and via the South China Sea and Indian Ocean to the south, will envelop Eurasia, which will articulate itself in the center over high-speed rail and highway corridors of the New Silk Roads and the upgraded Trans-Siberian links.
They call it Euro-Asia in Beijing, and they call it Greater Eurasia in Moscow. The whole process is historically inexorable, already forging the future – call it Asian or Eurasian.
Asia rules ? Well, not quite. It’s backbone is Russia, which means it can only be called Euro-Asia, as Russia is both in Europe and in Asia. Russia provides the energy, agriculture and high tech, while China the production and financial resources, although Russian production capabilities cannot be underestimated. Russia is also the bridge between Europe and Asia.
The above mentioned facts is the reason why Washington, grudgingly followed by EU countries, wants to eradicate the influence of both Russia and China. Both are surrounded by military bases. Why ? A military confrontation is out of the question, as then nobody wins. Those bases are part of Washington’s old subversion manual, destabilizing a country and then using troops in to establish “democracy” by placing puppets in power who will permit the plundering of the country. Wont work. Too late for that.
Russia’s and China’s chief advantage lies in the fact that both have history and tradition behind them, which makes them strong. America, on the other hand, is a collection of states, the bulk of whom are artificially created. This contributed to the Civil War of 1861-1865, whose repercussions still exist.
The US now has a choice of accepting Euro-Asia and joining it, or going against it. As things stand now, it’s going against it. Not wise. It’s finances cannot sustain this for too long.
And the EU ? It’s a globalist creation, created to curtail the sovereign status of European nations. It’s an artificial creation, and it’s days are numbered. When Washington introduced sanctions against Russia, how many EU countries were happy about this, knowing they would lose trade ?
Result of all of this ? Euro-Asia will rule. I have to correct Pepe. It won’t be Asia as such, as it’s only a matter of time before Germany joins the Euro-Asian Economic Union. Merkel has influence over the German bankers, but years ago she lost influence over German industrialists who are conducting negotiations in Russia.
Michael Hudson: Trump’s Brilliant Strategy to Dismember U.S. Dollar Hegemony
2-1-19
I have just returned from Germany and seen a remarkable split between that nation’s industrialists and their political leadership. For years, major companies have seen Russia as a natural market, a complementary economy needing to modernize its manufacturing and able to supply Europe with natural gas and other raw materials. America’s New Cold War stance is trying to block this commercial complementarity. Warning Europe against “dependence” on low-price Russian gas, it has offered to sell high-priced LNG from the United States (via port facilities that do not yet exist in anywhere near the volume required). President Trump also is insisting that NATO members spend a full 2 percent of their GDP on arms – preferably bought from the United States, not from German or French merchants of death.
The U.S. overplaying its position is leading to the Mackinder-Kissinger-Brzezinski Eurasian nightmare that I mentioned above. In addition to driving Russia and China together, U.S. diplomacy is adding Europe to the heartland, independent of U.S. ability to bully into the state of dependency toward which American diplomacy has aimed to achieve since 1945.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/02/trumps-brilliant-strategy-to-dismember-u-s-dollar-hegemony.html
“So once again, “continent” is a Western invention.”
Continents might also be considered a scientifically valid concept according to plate tectonics. Eurasia, of course, is one continental plate, with India a separate continental plate. But the other “continents” more or less fit in the plate tectonics model: Australia, North and South America, Africa, Antarctica. There are additions though, particularly in the Pacific Ocean where there are three “continental” plates.
So in this case, the Western invention is, at least on the whole, on the mark.
Still, the overall argument for interconnectivity, not only in Eurasia, seems valid to me.
I was wondering where Pepe’s next article would appear. This was never posted to asiatimes new main page, nor does asiatimes search engine locate anything by him even though he’s been writing for it 20 years. I hope Saker can make Pepe aware of that development. Otherwise, educational and informative as usual. I wonder what Pepe would think about this Alastair Crooke item, “Suddenly Europe Is an Open Question – ‘A Nazi EU?’” Or The Saker for that matter. The manner in which the Eurasian collective’s being forged is quite different from the EU, and I can easily see the EAEU/BRI being far more attractive than the EU for some rather basic reasons–one being no enslavement to International Finance via the diktats of one nation’s central bank and its Zerosum philosophy.