Things Are Disintegrating
What Happens AFTER the Loss of the Donbas
Saker Message:
Things Are Disintegrating
What Happens AFTER the Loss of the Donbas
OK, I’ll be grumpy.
Both these videos deal with the domestic political situation in the Ukraine. The disintegration has been discussed in the last two Operation Z sitreps and is widely commented upon by many analysts because we can see it!
Please withhold your criticism of the man. He is telling the lived experience, and has a keen eye and a real sense of these developments.
Leave the people that appreciate this, to appreciate it in peace. And if you do not have peace with this, go elsewhere .. really .. but no more hijacking of the content because you don’t like someone.
We even spell it out in the moderation policy: “2) All comments have to be courteous to me, the blog’s author, moderators, any guest author and all the other commentators. You are welcome to criticize and even attack ideas, but not people. You are also not allowed to try something like “you are only saying this because…”. You are not God, so you don’t know why a person writes something.
Like Andrei (the Saker) again stated just yesterday — his blog, his rules. /gonzalo-lira-lysychansk-fire-control-retreat-and-truth/#comment-1099294
/grumpy
grumpy Rx, tall glass of Chardonnay, or brown bag it, skip the glass:)
Cheers M
Just take the hint: He isn’t on par with the other content on this blog, it is what it is. This is what editors have to deal with every day. I’ll leave it at that and I hope you know, Amarynth, that my comment is not intended to stir up trouble or criticize the blog itself, which I love.
Thanks, Amarynth and the Saker staff, for keeping the lights on at Hacienda Saker.
I have been one of those ‘critics’, perhaps. I hope we hear his entire story some day soon, GL is interesting.
Like Dmitry Orlov, he is clearly drawing on his past experiences to inform the present situation, which makes him an analyst. His forecast of chaos is almost certainly correct.
This analysis was a bit speculative, but I do not doubt the sincerity of it. Zelensky’s days are numbered, and he may well be martyred by “his own people”. The other predictions also seem possible, but part of a wide range of possibilities. Other things can happen — Russia may not allow Poland to “have a chunk” of territory. There may or may not be a “government in exile”, or it may consist of Zelensky (or a successor) alone, recognized by Washington, while the rest of the planet recognizes a new Russian speaker in Kiev. Remnants of Pravy Sektor and Azov will probably continue to exist as criminal gangs, for a while at least.
Dear Gonzalo,
You the man; I love the way you vividly lay out the scenario! Yes, we know that nobody knows for certain what the future will bring but I agree that your version is totally plausible. And it won’t be long to wait.
Be safe.
Un abrazo
Gianni
What if Russia dedicated 3 non nuclear Sarmat missiles, cutom built as ” Bunker Buster’s”, and give it a go after that coke snorting actor?
Bunker Bust the living shit out of that insane man.
But fast, before he can escape and form a exile gov…
He’s off coke now, he’s found opium.
Dear Mr. Lira… suggest seriously considering getting the H-LL outta ukraine now – especially if what you’re predicting comes to pass… bail outta there now, buddy!
I’m shocked that Poroshenko tried to flee Ukraine. I assumed he was fighting in the Donbas. At least that was the message he implied when he posed for the camera in full military gear, just a couple of months ago.
Come and see Prague. A HUGE amount of new ukies SUVs, Mercedes, Audis with plates starting A in the city. The class of regime servants has been leaving Kiev and with USD and Euros to be laundered. On the other hand tents with Gypsies from around UA Uzghorod borderlands with Slovakia here. Porki has just moved within the new confederation, the copy of the 1923 one.
“Come and see Prague.”
Yes, and other places, like Vienna. RT recently reported the following:
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“Video shows Ukrainians beating up taxi drivers in Austria – media”
“The brawl was apparently prompted by a parking lot dispute, when two luxury SUVs, a BMW X5, and a Toyota Land Cruiser stopped in places reserved for taxis outside of the hotel. At least one of the cars had a Ukrainian license plate, footage of the incident available online shows.”
https://www.rt.com/news/556255-ukrainians-vienna-brawl-taxi/
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If Mr. Lira is right — i.e., if there will be a second wave of emigration from Ukraine — we may be seeing more of this. There is never enough space for people who crave luxury.
They are parking everywhere here and free, and behave badly, bullying natives. Protektoraat 2.0 police is afraid to maintain law and order as to ukies national guests, for New EU Protektoraat government licks the balls of Duda, Morawiecki and Elenski. Plus private parts of Ursula van der Crazy. We had some snack called Russian eggs, now it is oficially called Ukranian eggs, common people call it Ukies balls. Not admiringly, off course. We had some Russian ice-cream made under license perhaps, now it is called Ukranian ice-cream, otherwise now also being called frozen ukies sperm. Streets are being renamed like in the first protektoraat. Russians must be cancelled and Russian culture too. Even Russian writers and composers of the 19th century. I am sure the second wave od national guests is coming like uh, Winter is Coming. A lot of the Maidan regime servants will be on the run. But I am optimistic, before his killing Herr Heydrich used to say the Czechs are smiling beasts capable of destroy any regime, unarmed.
Pukeoshitko was handing out candy bars from his chocolate factory to reservists. well aware he’d make up those losses on the back-end through his funeral service business. It’s a bubble-wrap.
Liked the video about what happens after.
Lira is in house arrest? Or?
I think he is living in a hotel room (in Karkov?) after his run-in with the Ukie secret police. He is apparently not free to talk about it right now.
I read that, false hope if you ask me. Four Red Lines in one. That would most likely fall under the category of ….next war will not be fought on Russian soil, Lavrov was very explicit recently, (MOD more so) going as far as to stress the point……he knows Putin, takes him at his word. Woe be those with deaf ears.
Cheers M
Good summary from Gonzalo, just one issue, I watched the second vid yesterday where he talks political collapse and who in the Ukrainian Armed forces might take control.
I wake up this am, watch the first vid and by the sounds of it, they arrested the heads of the Ukrainian Armed Forces……..oh f.
If the execute them……..Russia will need to destroy every last Nazi all the way to…..
Cheers M
Everyone is looking over their shoulder now to see who is coming for them.
Except maybe Zelensky who probably thinks he is untouchable as a US agent. Also cocaine gives one a feeling of invulnerability.
Heard he’d signed a 4 year Hollywood Harvey Weinstein contract should he pass the casting couch exam.
Is the Vichy moment coming for the chief commander of the hohols army Zaluzny? Oh, yes. I know the Petain guy, one might thing. However, I do not think the Skilled Lingam Piano Player from Kiev, Mr. Elensky is a new de Gaulle,
De Gaulle, de Londres:
“Français, la route sera longue.”
De Gaulle, 40,
Une certaine idée qui chante.
Une poignée de marins bretons,
Quelques soldats sans munitions,
Et quatre notes de Beethoven,
Et mille ans d’Histoire dans les veines.
The clown of Kyiv is a dickhead full of synthetic cocaine provided free by the courtesy of HMS MI6 from a Novichok labs situated near Salisbury, see his night videos.
The West have probably thought it all through.
Why the voices are getting louder and louder that Ukraine merges into Poland and creates a new country. Even the ex President Viktor Yanukovych is now coming out and saying this is a real possibility.
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/152141-yanukovych_ukraine/
a) Gives Ukraine protection under the NATO umbrella
b) Helps to resolve the migration crises on the Polish Border
c) Allows the build up forces in what was Western Ukraine.
d) Helps with the strategic geopolitical map NATO strategy.
Don’t rule anything out as soon as the Donbass falls and Western Ukraine becomes vulnerable this could very easily happen.
What the Neo Nazis and the Russians will think about it is another story.
Are you for real? You think that NATO and Ukraine have any bargaining chips left?
Billy-bob from NSA special operations mother’s basement is a real flake.
Fantasyland. NATO requires unanimous consent and is coming apart at the seams because it isn’t there. Admitting Ukraine commits NATO to open war with Russia. The US may want that, Europe does not.
Nobody gives a rat’s ass about Poland, it is essentially another version of Ukraine, a neonazi US proxy.
Avakov is too shrewd and a much smarter operator. He would not tie his rope to a sinking ship in order to rule over a possible rump state in Lviv. His power base has always been Kharkiv – he was Governor of the oblast during the Kernes period – all of these guys ex -Kharkiv were Party of Regions members. Avakov is not necessarily a card carrying Nazi – he is a political chameleon who was able to change overcoats and rise to immense power nationally.
I understand why Gonzalo feels that Avakov is the man annointed to take over, as the deal being offered by the Foggy Bottom may be quite lucrative. But if Azov or Right Sector are diminished or removed from influence, then all Avakov has left is the СБУ, and even this corrupt organization may be fragmented.There are still too many Nationalists holed up in Kharkiv, Odessa & Kiev who will not roll over, as they have not yet been introduced personally to Mr Kinzhal or Mr Kaliber.
My money is on a regime change in the West by the end of the year – the US, the UK, and Germany.
@Moses
Unfortunately regime changes in the West are highly unlikely, since it will make no difference which candidate you vote for in a demockracy. Control of the mainstream media propaganda channels on TV, the curtailment of freedom of speech, and the privately owned voting machines will ensure that only people picked by the corporate owned Democratic and Republican parties in the US will be allowed air time. Any dissent is throttled by the FBI, the CIA and militarized police forces, who bump off protesters one by one with no accountability. The Yellow Vests in France were soon put down with tear gas and maiming rubber bullets. The US and EU are now essentially fascist police states.
Some of what Lira is suggesting may have merit but I am of the view that Galacia only will be the territory that Russia will discard.
Stopping at Dnipropetrovsk seems like a case of RFstopping the SMO way too early and unfinished.
The number you’re looking for is the T-62, which was basically a glorified T-55. It wasn’t until 1972 that a new tank, the T-72, which was a quantum leap foreward, appeared on the scene
The ancient “amusement park tank” must be the T-34. This is a tad more than an amusement park item. This is considered by Russians to be the weapon that saved Russia (and the world, accd to Russians) from the Fascist Beast. Every year, one of the highlights of Victory Day parade is the appearance of a single T-34, which causes the crowd to cheer mightily
And of course it demonstrates the pathological stupidity and ignorance and gullibility of the Western media that a tank that first designed 85 years ago, and was upgraded with an 85mm gun 78 years ago, could be passed off as a viable weapon in 2022
For peacekeeping missions in the rear where your oponents would be some guerillas/partisans with a recycled MG42 as their strongest weapon , even a T34 would do the job perfectly.
Dear Gonzalo !
I appreciate a lot your videos , your insightful opinions which help me to form also my own opinions. You explained the roots of your thinking , your liberal education. Very good and useful.
Its like that old proverb from native americans :” Never make a judgment over a man before you have walked 20 miles with his mokassins” .
But your video today , describing the situation post “Donbass-battle” , is very unfortunate.
I don´t critizise the content , which is brilliant and smart. But in any case , one : you are spot on , or two : you are completely mistaken , you have put Mr.Zalushnin into the crosshairs of his enemies inside the actual regime.
Because if I am the enemy , my first thought would be that Zalushnin may be a traitor to the cause.
In my humble opinion , it would have been smarter , bite my own tongue and keep silent.
Imagine that you are spot on and the SBU sacks Mr.Zalushnin and his collaborators of the plan described by you.
Do you really wan´t to be presented by mr.Zelensky on TV , pinning a medal on your chest , for “saving the fatherland from a dangerous complot” ?
On the other hand , if your intention was to harm one of the smarter guys in the ucranian leadership , who tries to take sane decisions , than everything is ok. But in this case the war will last longer and with more casualties on both sides.
Si tacuisses ……..
Gotta kinda disagree with the G-man on impact outside the Ukraine. The same folks who were wrong about 9/11, wrong about Afghanistan/Iraq/Libya/Syria, wrong about Trump (Chomsky now hails him as our only statesman) and wrong about Covid, are not going to feel any shame or panic over being wrong about the Ukraine. That’s just not how they roll.
The narrative has been “Putin is losing everything” and when backpeddling no one cannot escape noticing
Agree. Ukraine is just an isolated case, nobody cares.
Only thing they will remember is that “brutal Putin” pushed a lot of nice educated Ukrainians with luxury cars and pockets full of money to escape, which they as do-gooders must take good care of in the Western welfare system to feel good.
Same procedure and privileges like the previous freedom loving moderate rebels from ISIS.
Kind of deep into speculation with regard to Zelensky. If Ukraine gets blown away, it could easily happen that they would want him to be their government in exile. That and there are a lot of military commanders that don’t want to take over the government even if they can. It puts them into a political role that will be unstable precisely because they seized power. With some frequency, military takeovers are launched by lower ranking officers. That is more common than the top guys doing it.
When watching Lira’s videos (which I agree with BTW),I thought it would be a good idea to get a background understanding of who is who in the former Ukraine.
The way the regime has been formed in Ukraine, It’s the Western Ukrainians that have been given the top (and many other spots as well) levels of the military. The Presidents at the start were Central or Eastern Ukrainians with West Ukraine ties,either marriage, or ancestry, or business connections. And all of them had other important ties with the Jewish Ukrainian oligarchs. Out of the 10 top Ukrainian oligarchs 9 of them are of Jewish background and the other of Tatar background has Jewish ties.
After the maidan coup the “elected” Presidents, and most of their high officials have been of Jewish Ukrainian background. The one exception being the nazi leaning powerful Interior Ministry which was headed by Arsen Avakov,who was of Armenian descent.Almost the entire power structure of Ukraine is made up of West Ukrainians controlling the military,with the Presidency and economy controlled by Jewish elements.
The outright fascist/nazi elements that are also so important in Ukraine are a bit of a mix. The old line fascist/nazi elements are Western Ukrainian, or the descendants of Western Ukrainian families that moved to other areas of Ukraine. There are among the “canon fodder” nazis some Eastern,Southern,and Central Ukrainians mixed in the mass of Western Ukrainians. Who have been brainwashed by years of Russophobic propaganda into becoming self-hating “Russians”. And then as I mentioned there is the totally diabolical Eastern Ukrainian Armenian-Ukrainian Avakov who affiliated with them to get power for himself.The actual Western Ukrainian fascist/nazi elements you could say are more ideological. While those from the other regions,even if of Western Ukrainian ancestry are less ideological and are willing to be funded by Jewish oligarchs. Which the more ideological ones among the Western Ukrainians refuse to do.
When this is all over and Russia wins. The task will be to weed out all those elements. And limit any power that Western Ukraine may have in a rump Ukrainian state. While totally eliminating the fascist/nazi elements and the power of Jewish oligarchs from any part in the rump Ukraine’s new society. Most likely that rump Ukraine will be stripped of the 8 Novorussian Oblasts added to the newly created Ukrainian SSR by the Soviets in 1922 out of traditional Russian territory. And will consist of the 9 traditional Ukrainian Oblasts from before then,plus the 7 Oblasts from the territory ceded to the Ukrainian SSR during and after WW2.Giving them a state of 16 Oblasts.A government friendly to Russia will need to be put in place and a through denazification program instituted. Most importantly a reform of the educational system removing all traces of pro-fascist/nazi/Western and anti-Russian teaching.It will be a hard and not a quick job to do. The “bad guys” have had decades to infect the population with their poison. So to expect a quick cure is not realistic.
Excellent synopsis , Uncle Bob. It tells the first time reader a lot of what going on, who is doing it ,where they are doing it and where they came from, and why!
Seconding Brother Ma, excellent synopsis.
The greatest of the many tasks post capitulation will be “denazification”. This will require all manner of legal/legislative/procedural changes right through the entire governmental structure, but you’re still left with 10s of 1,000s of nutters causing all manner of trouble. With them, I see 2 possible strategies…
– Idlib 2.0, whereby they’re either killed in situ or agree to be transported to a tightly sealed Lwow Oblast where they’re left to stew in their own juices for a generation or two, or
– they’re hunted down as per Dagestan & Chechnya and either killed “on the toilet” (in Putin’s famous words) or taken for trial and sentencing
There are a couple of variations on the latter that warrant consideration…
– the new Russo-Uke state may wish to try a similar program to the one China set up for Uighur fanatics in Xinjiang and try to turn them into harmless, if not productive citizens. and/or
– if that’s too much to hope for, a few months of brutal boot camp de/re-programming could result in an asset similar to what Akhmet Kadyrov developed in Chechnya. One can’t help but notice the extraordinary contribution Kadyrov’s Chechens are making to the SMO. Having a 2nd such cadre may prove useful in the years ahead.
Thank you, very informative.
Thank you for those precisions. I completely agree with you. It is very important to understand. Minorities in Ukraine have took power in 2014. Western ukrainians (greco-catholics linked to Rome) that represent around 6% of the population, and Jews have seized power and kept 90% of orthodox russophones in a state of submission, without even asking them what they think of joining Nato or EU. They imposed them a western agenda and a forced change of identity (to become as a nation anti-Russia). All this will collapse.
I have no problem with the guy. Lots of people are providing insightful content from the comfort of their rooms without going out or going there.
The best that Zelensky can expect is a posthumous HBO network contract of his last days in the bunker with Hitler’s great great nephews. I say posthumous as he’s highly unlikely to see out his term. Tom cruise will play Zelensky although as a scientologist he’s concerned about the dick playing piano scenes.
The USSR fought 5 years or more , after 1945 ,putting down borderland Guerillas and Banderista partisans.
Israel was born from long planned terror and resistance , in the Palestine and under the British, at the same time. Britain lost. The Soviets won.
The Hingarians in 1956 thought they were up for it.wernt.
What follows now will be a repetition.
Well said!
Russia hasn’t been allowed a full decade of peace since WWII. The western cabals have done everything in their power to destabilise her. Time for a shipload of payback.
‘If you don’t rub their noses in it, like when house training a dog, victory can be hollow’.
Don’t just rub their noses in it, stick the boot in too, again and again, as if the shoe was on the other foot, they’d be confiscating your natural grains and pumping you full of the GMO toxic products on every supermarket shelf in Europe & North America.
Two things:
1. When things start disintegrating, will a coup work knowing that zelstein has US special forces goons guarding him?
2. How will the US neo con nutcases controlling their Kievan clown take it? Will they go for broke and stage a false flag?
I read General Zaluzhnyi was made General by Zelensky not long ago. I think there is more chance that he flees with Zelensky than that he leads a coup.
If Poland takes a chunk of Western Ukraine, it does Russia a huge favor. Russia has already mentioned that such plans exist. It is very likely that Russia will move to Western Ukraine to “stop” that from happening even with Poland not doing anything of the sort. Ukraine as “military protectorate” sounds like too much trouble for Russia to want. Coup plotters may look to a temporary military protectorate as the most they can obtain after the end of their wish to recover Crimea and the Donbass. It’s unlikely that their vision of things would be like the vision of Vladimir Putin! He already described on February 25 what Ukraine represents to him in the clearest terms. It’s Russian, he said. The U.S. or NATO might be in a position to maybe offer enough to make Russia decide a rump state is okay, but no readiness to do that is seen and this chance slips away and may have slipped already. Hard for the Russian victor to give away his conquests just to make some failed Ukrainians happy, etc. Peskov said before the war that the “map of Europe” could be changed like “in WWII.” Putin now needs to justify the great sacrifice and cost incurred in both human and material terms to his country; whatever he obtains from the SMO will be his reward to the Russian dead (he has that in mind).
There’s considerable freedom of expression in Ukraine for Lira to make this case like that after having been a prisoner recently. (The videos are too long in my opinion.)
This statement by Peskov made before the war saying that the “map of Europe” could be changed like in WWII was huge. I thought the reaction to it was poor at the time.
It is not a message for a spokesman to give or, rather, it is not common for a president to send a message like that. If Putin won’t give it directly (and he didn’t), then you would think the FM or the DM would give this message, and then it can only be in Putin’s name that they give it, or with him as the source. When Peskov said in early April that Russia had sustained “significant losses” in Ukraine, people thought it was an indiscretion. So, could it be that this statement was not given to him by Putin to give to the world and that it was rather him speaking as something other than spokesman (like a gaffe)? If so, he shared what he heard in the meetings. It’s either what Putin approved for him to say, or what he heard in the meetings. I think it’s what he heard in the meetings. It means a lot coming before February 25. Let us discard what it can’t mean:
-That Ukraine becomes a ‘military protectorate’ or a rump state. Changing the map of Europe like that? No.
-That Western Ukraine is given to the Poles. Not that.
-That Ukraine becomes a part of Russia. That changes it.
-That even more than Ukraine comes under Russia.
The last one is more like it (blame Peskov if anyone, but not me). The map of Europe was changed more after WWII. I want to think that there’s some exaggeration, but I don’t know. Is there something else that belongs to Russia? Those words don’t belong on the lips of a spokesman. Since his words seem to extend beyond Ukraine, I was puzzled back then by their meaning (and still am).
In his second video, Gonzalo says “Once this loss in the Donbas happens, the entire state of Ukraine will begin to disintegrate.”
If his vision of what will happen in Ukraine comes to pass, perhaps something similar will occur in the US State Department.
Blinken personifies a school of thought that supposes that the end justifies the means, That twisted philosophy falls apart when the “end” is shown to be unattainable. Defeat in the Donbas along with souring public opinion could potentially convince Biden to rid the planet of Blinken and his ilk before Blinken can shift the administration’s attention from Ukraine to Taiwan.
“…convince Biden to rid the planet of Blinken and his ilk”
Biden said that American troops would be sent to Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan. It’s proof that he should resign; that’s not a gaffe on his part. If others had said “yeah, yeah”, he would have repeated it. It showed he is not apt for his position (apt for loving grandpa, though). One other thing he did is place Harris one step from the presidency, practically in the presidency. That was his choice, no person forced him. This needs to be fixed with new amendments to the U.S. Constitution. Just like Biden picked Harris, Obama picked Biden. It all went astray regarding presidential succession! For those who don’t know, in the 1787 Constitution, they dealt with the core issue of succession in a better way. There were no political parties at the time, so the top two contenders for the presidency who earned the largest number of votes became the president and vice president respectively. So, Biden would not have made it; Harris would not have made it. In fact, they were so concerned about “succession”, so concerned about avoiding Biden or Harris as political disasters for everybody, that they invented the Electoral College also, where the College could deny them accession. Then came the political parties that eventually degenerated into what we see. George Washington’s farewell warning about the danger of political parties was ignored, rather than read every year in Congress as it should have been (he looks like a prophet if you read his farewell address)!
You do know that Blinken is a relative of George Soros. Something like a cousin. These people are vermin like Nuland and the entire Kagin family, Vindman family and others.. Nuland’s husband is Robert Kagin plus they have a son and daughter in the family business of starting NeoCon wars where innocent people get murdered.
I often dream of the day when AFU servicemen simply kill the embedded Nazis among them and entire armies walk to the Russian border with white flags because they are fed up enough about taking orders from actor f*ggots. And the war is mostly over except for clearing out the fanatics.
Should have been done from the start but this is how things have turned out.